Fantasy football is more than just the weekly head-to-head games we’ve all grown to love. On Underdog, fantasy managers can put their player-projection skills to the test by predicting player stat lines. Here are my top Underdog plays for the Sunday slate of Week 15 games.
Top Underdog Pick’ems for Week 15
Underdog Pick’ems allows fantasy managers to predict stat lines and fantasy-point totals for almost all fantasy-relevant players. You can make two picks that pay out 3x, even money, or add more selections to your entry for higher payouts.
The levels are 3x, 6x, 10x, and 20x, progressing with each additional pick’em you add to your entry. Let’s look at this week’s Underdog Pick’ems for the Sunday slate.
For the Sunday slate, there are far more games than the individual prime-time games. Underdog entries are limited to five pick’ems. Most weeks, there will be more than five pick’ems I like. Additionally, hitting a five-pick-’em entry is hard. I don’t want to consistently go 3-2 or 4-1 and lose.
As a result, I will limit this list to my favorite picks of the week. At the bottom of this article, I used to provide my pick’em entry, which consists of three to four of my top pick’ems. Unfortunately, due to new regulations in New York, I can no longer play these myself. To compensate, I will list the pick’ems in order of confidence.
Desmond Ridder Lower Than 184.5 Passing Yards
Last week, Desmond Ridder threw for a career-high 347 yards. Yet, his projection is below 200 this week. Why? It was situational.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have a pass-funnel defense, and game script forced the Atlanta Falcons to throw more than they ever want to.
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In Ridder’s previous two games, where the Falcons won and were largely in control, Ridder threw for 121 and 168 yards. In Week 1, against these very same Carolina Panthers, Ridder threw for 115 yards in a convincing win.
Unless the Panthers are able to take a two-score lead, the Falcons will be content to run the ball 35+ times. That means a lot of Bijan Robinson and not a lot of Ridder throwing the ball. Plus, the Panthers are awful against the run but allow just 185 passing yards per game, the third-fewest in the league. Ridder shouldn’t get much beyond 150 in this one.
Cooper Kupp Higher Than 75.5 Receiving Yards
Death, taxes, and wide receivers producing against the Washington Commanders. No team allows more receiving yards per game to the wide receiver position than the 198 of the Commanders, which is a whopping 30 yards more than the next team.
Cooper Kupp is coming off his best game in nearly two months, catching eight passes for 115 yards and a touchdown last week. This projection should be easy for him to surpass in a game Matthew Stafford should be able to throw at will.
Logan Thomas Higher Than 32.5 Receiving Yards
It’s been quite the rough stretch for Logan Thomas. In his last two games, he caught two of four targets for 15 yards and then didn’t catch his lone target. But prior to that, he enjoyed a five-game stretch with at least 31 yards in every game.
The Commanders should be trailing and, thus, throwing. More importantly, the Los Angeles Rams allow 62 receiving yards per game to tight ends, the fourth-most in the league. With Sam Howell likely attempting 35+ passes, Thomas should see enough work to hit this projection.
Rashee Rice Lower Than 5.5 Receptions
It’s been an incredible stretch for Rashee Rice as he’s finally ascended to the clear WR1 on the Kansas City Chiefs roster. Over his last three games, he’s tallied reception totals of seven, eight, and eight. But before that, he hadn’t surpassed five receptions in a single game all season.
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The reality is six catches is a lot for just about any receiver. As bad as the Patriots have been overall, they’ve been quite good defensively. On the road against a tough defense, I think Rice is held to 4-5 catches.
Garrett Wilson Higher Than 4.5 Receptions
Garrett Wilson saw 14 targets last week. That was in a game the New York Jets dominated throughout. The last time the Jets played the Miami Dolphins, they saw a negative game script, and Wilson caught seven of 10 targets.
Zach Wilson played the best game of his career last week and peppered Garrett with targets. I expect more of the same this week. Given how often the Jets draw up quick hitters to Garrett, he should easily get to five receptions.
Zay Jones Higher Than 4 Receptions
This is banking on pure volume. Over the past two games, with Christian Kirk out, Jones saw eight and 14 targets. He was woefully inefficient, catching just five balls in each, but five is more than enough here.
Trevor Lawrence has keyed in on Evan Engram recently, but he can’t catch every pass. What’s Lawrence’s alternative? Throw to Calvin Ridley? Sounds like a terrible idea. Look for Lawrence to throw 8+ passes in Jones’ direction once again. We only need him to catch half.
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