Fantasy football is more than just the weekly head-to-head games we’ve all grown to love. On Underdog, fantasy managers can put their player-projection skills to the test by predicting player stat lines. Here are my top Underdog plays for the Sunday slate of Week 10 games.
Top Underdog Pick’ems for Week 10
Underdog Pick’ems allows fantasy managers to predict stat lines and fantasy-point totals for almost all fantasy-relevant players. You can make two picks that pay out 3x, even money, or add more selections to your entry for higher payouts.
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The levels are 3x, 6x, 10x, and 20x, progressing with each additional pick’em you add to your entry. Let’s look at this week’s Underdog Pick’ems for the Sunday slate.
For the Sunday slate, there are far more games than the individual prime-time games. Underdog entries are limited to five pick’ems. Most weeks, there will be more than five pick’ems I like. Additionally, hitting a five-pick-’em entry is hard. I don’t want to consistently go 3-2 or 4-1 and lose.
As a result, I will limit this list to my favorite picks of the week. I will try and keep it to no more than 10 maximum. At the bottom of this article, I used to provide my pick’em entry, which consists of three to four of my top pick’ems.
Unfortunately, due to new regulations in New York, I can no longer play these myself. To compensate, I will list the pick’ems in order of confidence.
Will Levis Higher Than 221.5 Passing Yards
Will Levis has thrown for 238 and 262 yards in each of his first two starts, well above this number. While the Titans want to be a run-first offense, that is not the way to beat the Bucs’ pass-funnel defense.
The Bucs just got torched by C.J. Stroud to the tune of 470 yards and five touchdowns. All we’re asking Levis to do is put up half that.
The Bucs allow 294 passing yards per game, the second-most in the league. This is due in large part to their inability to pressure the quarterback, where they rank second-worst with just a 26.6% pressure rate. Given Levis’ willingness to push the ball downfield, I think he sails higher than this number rather easily.
Antonio Gibson Higher Than 16.5 Receiving Yards
This is a great spot for Antonio Gibson to see significant usage. Over the past two weeks, the Commanders returned to their two-man split of Brian Robinson and Gibson. Rookie Chris Rodriguez didn’t play a snap.
Gibson hasn’t been much work on the ground, but he’s been very good through the air. Gibson has totaled at least 24 receiving yards in four of his last five games.
Most importantly, the Commanders are not the type to just run the ball while trailing. If it doesn’t work, or if they fall behind, they will completely abandon the run. We saw this happen a few weeks ago on Thursday night when they fell behind early to the Bears. They didn’t call a single-run play the entire second half.
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If the Commanders are forced to go pass-heavy, Gibson will see over a 50% snap share, as he did against the Bears. If he runs another 22 routes or so like he did last week, he should have no trouble catching a couple of balls for at least 14 yards.
I’m expecting a big-time bounce-back performance from the Seahawks at home. If they go up early by multiple scores, as I suspect, we will see heavy doses of Gibson, allowing him to easily surpass this number.
Devin Singletary Lower Than 63.5 Rush + Receiving Yards
Care to guess how many times this season Singletary has amassed more than 63 total yards in a game?
Of course, past performance doesn’t guarantee future performance. And the circumstances are changed with Dameon Pierce out. But Pierce’s absence is not going to suddenly turn Singletary into an efficient runner. And even with Pierce out, Singletary’s passing game role is not going to change. That job belongs to Mike Boone.
Essentially, for this to lose, Pierce is going to have to run for all of it. Even against a Bengals run defense that hasn’t been great, I just can’t see the Texans running enough or Singletary being efficient enough to do it.
Austin Ekeler Lower Than 48.5 Rushing Yards
Austin Ekeler has been terrible as a runner this season. At 28 years old, he may be declining, but it’s being masked because he remains an excellent receiver. That is not uncommon. We’ve seen many great running backs decline on the ground while their ability to excel as receivers ages better.
Ekeler has not run for 50 yards in a game since Week 1. Since returning from his three-game absence, he’s averaging 2.6 yards per carry. The Lions are a pass-funnel defense. They allow just 3.7 YPC and a mere 57 rushing yards per game to running backs.
I’m expecting the Chargers to go with a very pass-heavy script this week, utilizing designed screens to Ekeler instead of carries. And when they do run, Ekeler is unlikely to be effective, keeping him well short of this number.
Bijan Robinson Lower Than 81.5 Rush + Receiving Yards
How many weeks in a row? Seriously. How many? Bijan Robinson hasn’t gone higher than 80 total yards in a game since Week 4. His role continues to diminish as Arthur Smith pushes the inferior Tyler Allgeier ahead of the talented rookie. Yet, the line keeps being set as if Robinson is the clear lead back.
MORE: Kyle Soppe’s Week 10 Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet
Of course, Robinson is talented enough to break a couple of big runs, costing us the under. Well, we’ve taken this each of the past two weeks, and we’ve gotten two sweat-free wins. Until we see something change in the Falcons backfield, or until the sportsbooks correctly adjust this line lower, we will continue to milk this cash cow.
Deebo Samuel Higher Than 44.5 Receiving Yards
This projection is borderline disrespectful. I know the 49ers have “a lot of mouths to feed.” But this game has shootout potential.
Deebo Samuel has not been healthy for nearly two months. After missing two games and having the bye week, he is now ready to rock. Despite the perceptions about his performance, when healthy, Samuel has been quite good.
He’s gone over 44 yards in four of six games this season. He failed to get there in Week 4 when he was going by his alias, Decoy Samuel, who didn’t so much as a see a target. And he failed to get there in Week 6 when he played nine snaps before getting hurt.
Essentially, this bet is “Will Deebo Samuel stay healthy?” I say yes.
Aaron Jones Higher Than 53.5 Rushing Yards
I believe Aaron Jones is back. Last week, he played a season-high 57% of the snaps and out-carried AJ Dillon 20-9. Jones came out of the game with no setbacks to his hamstring. That leads me to believe he can continue handling a large workload.
The Steelers have been quite vulnerable on the ground, allowing 112 rushing yards per game to running backs. That is fourth-most in the league. This game has around a 3-point spread, meaning neither team should run away. That should keep the run in play the entire game, allowing Jones to post 70+ yards for the second consecutive week.
Calvin Ridley Higher Than 4.5 Receptions
This one causes me physical pain because of how bad of a receiver I think Calvin Ridley is. However, I must put personal feelings aside to win money.
The Jaguars are coming out of their bye to face a 49ers defense that has been surprisingly vulnerable against the pass. They’re allowing 16.1 receptions per game to wide receivers, the second-most in the league. More specifically, they struggle to defend perimeter receivers.
Even if Christian Kirk catches 6-8 passes, where are the other 10-12 going? The Jaguars do not have a WR3 to speak of unless Zay Jones returns. But even if he does play, Ridley only needs five receptions to win this pick’em.
This game has sneaky shootout potential. Ridley caught six of 10 targets in the Jaguars final game before the bye. I’m banking on them working Ridley in early and often to move the ball against a 49ers defense that is far tougher at defending the run than the pass.
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