Fantasy football isn’t always about the players in your lineup. The stress of a fantasy start ’em, sit ’em decision is real. It can disrupt sleep patterns and tarnish social interactions. Never underestimate the power of fake football.
Being real with where your lineup sits at this very moment in time is critical. What you paid for any player a month ago simply doesn’t matter — you’re in it to win Week 4, and if a high-end draft pick doesn’t profile as your best way to accomplish that goal, you’ve got to make the tough call.
The Week 4 Cheat Sheet can help you with all sorts of these decisions, as I carefully picked my favorite 22,000 words for the action this week and shared them with you, the people. In this piece, I highlighted some struggling stars that I feel just fine about and other hot-button players that I’m happy to pass on. Enjoy!
Looking to make a trade in your fantasy league? Having trouble deciding who to start and who to sit? Check out PFN’s Free Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer and Start/Sit Optimizer to help you make the right decision!
Fantasy Start ‘Em Picks for Week 4 of the 2023 NFL Season
Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals
Was Joe Burrow great on Monday night against the Los Angeles Rams in a game we weren’t sure he’d play? No. He completed just 26 of 49 passes for 259 yards with an interception and had some moments where he was hobbling. However, he made it through the game and got the Cincinnati Bengals a win.
Burrow lasting four quarters is all I needed to see to get back on him moving forward. This Tennessee Titans defense served as a get-right spot for Deshaun Watson last week, and I see more of the same for Burrow this week. He targeted Ja’Marr Chase or Tee Higgins with 52.2% of his throws in Week 3, and if that is sustained, my ranking of QB10 for Burrow this week isn’t going to be high enough.
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I’m targeting his upside over the safety that comes with a QB like Brock Purdy or the matchup play in Russell Wilson (vs. CHI).
James Conner, RB, Arizona Cardinals
With 16 touches for 116 yards and a score, James Conner looked great in what we thought was a brutal matchup against the Dallas Cowboys last week. As a reward, the veteran back gets the pleasure of trying to repeat that level of success against the San Francisco 49ers’ stout front.
San Francisco has a +48-point differential this season, and if they continue to dominate, Conner is projecting production that mirrors his Week 1 effort in Washington (19 touches for 70 yards and zero touchdowns). He gave fantasy managers less than that when these two teams last met (19 opportunities resulting in just 54 yards, though he did score).
I have Conner ranked as a low-end RB2 who needs a touchdown to surpass my rankings, something I’m not betting on. Especially with Arizona owning an implied total this week of 15 points.
Nico Collins, WR, Houston Texans
His breakout season was put on hold last week in Jacksonville (two catches for 34 yards), but the upside he showed in the first two weeks (13 catches for 226 yards and a touchdown) is real. His athletic profile is one fantasy managers have been chasing since he was a third-round pick in 2021, and the time may finally be here.
This is a high-volume passing attack motivated to see what their young quarterback can do, and Collins appears to be the alpha target earner on this offense. So what have other top targets done this season against the Steelers, you ask?
- Week 1: Brandon Aiyuk (eight catches, 129 yards, two TDs)
- Week 2: Amari Cooper (seven catches, 90 yards)
- Week 3: Davante Adams (13 catches, 172 yards, two TDs)
Maybe Collins isn’t on that level, but he is the featured option in an underdog role against a vulnerable secondary. Sign me up for a top-25 ranking this week!
Tee Higgins, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
Well, this has been a frustrating start to the season. In three weeks, Higgins has a WR3 overall (vs. BAL) finish sandwiched between a pair of weeks in which he was not one of the 80 best fantasy receivers. He caught seven passes for 114 yards and a score (sans Chase) against the Titans last season – could we get another of those peak performances?
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Higgins was an asset last season. That’s a fact, and even in a strong campaign, he had four games with under 40 receiving yards. Don’t overreact to a few high-volume duds. The efficiency will come (two catches on 16 targets in those two down weeks), and I’m going to be there when it does. In this supreme matchup, Higgins is a WR2 for me, and I feel good about it.
Fantasy Sit ‘Em Picks for Week 4 of the 2023 NFL Season
Deshaun Watson, QB, Cleveland Browns
There’s no shame in making use of an easy matchup. Watson looked much better over the weekend against the leaky Titans than he did in a pair of divisional games to open the season. Of course, we’re back in the division this weekend against a Ravens team that held Gardner Minshew under 5.2 yards per attempt in Week 3.
Deshaun Watson, this is not great.pic.twitter.com/rOlGZ0ZI8V
— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) September 24, 2023
Even in a good week, Watson had his moments of complete chaos (I’ve watched the play roughly 673 times). But at the end of the day, he has a pair of top-10 finishes on his 2023 résumé.
Here’s the play. Pick up Jordan Love for the next two weeks, cut Love for Jared Goff in Week 6, and then commit to Watson the rest of the way.
Is that complicated? It is, but you can band-aid together the next three weeks before fully buying into Watson as your regular option.
De’Von Achane, RB, Miami Dolphins
Nothing to see here. After a two-touch debut in Week 2, De’Von Achane casually racked up 233 yards and four scores on 22 touches against the overmatched Denver Broncos.
I noted his early usage in the Mostert preview (four carries for 41 yards and a touchdown on Miami’s second drive), and that is what encourages me long-term for the rookie. The speed that Achane showcased on Sunday is nothing new and gives him weekly upside in an offense that can spread you thin.
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I understand the reflex of wanting to lock him into lineups after scrolling through your Week 3 roster and seeing the 49.3-point performance on your bench. I understand it because it happened to me, too.
The upside is real, but so is the downside that comes with being the secondary option in an offense that prefers to move the ball through the air. Achane ranks behind the “I know the workload for these guys” tier of running backs that includes the likes of Jerome Ford and Najee Harris, hovering around RB25 at the moment.
Dameon Pierce, RB, Houston Texans
He scored last week, and that play alone resulted in more fantasy points than he had in either of his first two games this season. That’s a start.
In his best fantasy game of the season, Dameon Pierce averaged 2.2 yards per carry and ranked second on his team in rushing yards. His next 12-yard gain this season will be his first, making him strictly a volume play (15.7 touches per game) in an offense that prefers to air it out.
Devin Singletary ran more routes than Pierce in Week 3, hinting that he could well be scripted out of games in which the undermanned Texans are behind. In Houston, I’m not sold that Pierce is the lead back much longer, and more importantly, I’m not even sold that the lead role in this backfield is all that valuable. I prefer both Steelers backs to Pierce in this matchup.
Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Mike Evans has scored in all three games this season. By averaging over nine targets per contest, it’s clear that he has Baker Mayfield’s trust. Now, the million-dollar question: Is that trust strong enough to overcome the kryptonite that is Marshon Lattimore?
When this game kicks off, it will have been 1,847 days since the last time Evans had five-plus catches in a game against the New Orleans Saints (nine straight meetings), and in three of those games, he was held under 15 yards. He earned just 13.1% of the targets in two meetings with the Saints last season, a number that has to change if he’s going to matter this week.
I have my concerns about Mayfield being able to elevate Evans above this matchup and, therefore, have him ranked as an average Flex option more so than someone you need to lock in (and behind teammate Chris Godwin).