The Buffalo Bills will travel to take on the New York Jets on Monday Night Football in Week 6. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Jets skill player who has the potential to make an impact during the game.
Aaron Rodgers, QB
All it took was a big deficit and desperation for the Jets to pick up the tempo and spike the pass rate last week in London (80.3% drop-back rate over the final 15 minutes). Can we get more of that, please?
Rodgers missed Garrett Wilson on what seemed to be an impromptu double move — I continue to see enough from this offense to make me think that an explosion spot is going to happen eventually but out of the blue.
There’s no point in chasing top-15 production from the future Hall of Famer until we actually see it. I think we could be trending in that direction (Rodgers’ pass attempt count has increased every week this season), but with the fifth-best yards-per-attempt pass defense on the other sideline, I’m not expecting much from Rodgers and this offense as a whole under the bright lights.
Breece Hall, RB
I’m all for overthinking things, but I truly think Hall’s struggles (consecutive finishes outside of the top 35 running backs and only one week ranking better than RB12) are simple.
1.8 inches.
That’s how much yardage Hall is picking up before contact per carry this season. The thought process entering this season was that Rodgers would demand defensive respect and thus open up running lanes that Hall had yet to see in his young career.
That hasn’t been the case through five weeks. Not even close. On the bright side, the Bills allow the third most yards per carry before contact to running backs. Could this be the great right spot that Hall’s managers have been pleading for?
Hall was on the field for 74.6% of offensive snaps last week, his highest rate since Week 1 and he’s pacing for 95 targets. I think the role is still in the range of what you paid for this summer, you just need Rodgers to round into form.
Is that a safe bet? Far from it, but I’d rather take my chances there with a new head coach at the command than sell an elite talent at potentially a rock-bottom price.
Braelon Allen, RB
The rookie continues to see early work and has proven capable of making chunk plays (11+ yard gain in four straight), but until we see his role increased, Allen is more of a case in theoretical upside than anything that can be bet on this point.
Hall is averaging just 3.0 yards per carry this season and is struggling at levels that we thought impossible fewer than six weeks ago — and yet, Allen hasn’t reached a 36% snap share in a single game (Week 5: 25.4%). He remains a viable handcuff and is worthy of stashing over Hail Mary receivers that lack a path to mattering, but the hope for stand-alone value seems like a pipe dream after it once seemed nearly inevitable.
Garrett Wilson, WR
Managers with Wilson locked in weekly couldn’t have had a problem with the usage they saw last week, but for the greedy — it could have been better:
Not eactly what Wilson managers had in mind with 13 catches.
4th lowest on this list pic.twitter.com/ZPW3uAPaF3
— Kyle Soppe (@KyleSoppePFN) October 6, 2024
The connection with Rodgers remains something of a work in progress, but it’s not hard to see the path to league-winning upside.
Weeks 2-4: 19.2% on-field target share
Week 5: 39.3% on-field target share
Wilson posted a 13-101-1 stat line against the overly aggressive Vikings last week, earning quick looks from Rodgers left and right. Last week was his first finish better than WR29 this season, but it certainly won’t be his last. There are plenty of questions to be asked about this offense — Wilson’s role as a bonafide alpha is not among them.
Even in a tough matchup, Wilson is easily a top-15 receiver for me and a threat to break the slate.
Mike Williams, WR
Williams was on the field for a season-best 70.4% of New York’s offensive snaps last week in London. With some downfield work, he pushed his season aDOT north of 14 yards. On the profile side of things, those are good signs for a 6’4” target in an offense looking for viable options next to Wilson.
Considering that he has yet to finish a week better than WR45 as a Jet, though, I wouldn’t blame you if you weren’t excited about holding onto Williams.
I’m hanging in there.
Not this week (he’s not a top-50 receiver for me against a defense that has been elite at defending the deep ball for years and currently allows the third-fewest yards per long pass this season), but maybe next?
In Week 7, DJ Moore and CeeDee Lamb managers will be looking for a one-week fill-in option. And while the matchup with the Steelers may seem intimidating, they rank 22nd in yards allowed per deep pass through five weeks, giving Williams some one-play upside if his playing time continues to trend in the right direction.
Williams has yet to produce numbers despite the increase in snaps, and that has him sitting on waiver wires. He’s not a must-add, but he’s free now and will likely offer at least something of a viable ceiling next week.
If you’re the type that plays chess while your league mates play checkers, the breadcrumbs of an increase in his role could lead to something special at the perfect time — up to this point, the Rams and Jaguars are the two worst downfield pass defenses in the league and they just so happen to face the Jets in Weeks 15-16.
Allen Lazard, WR
Every week that Lazard produces, a spreadsheet somewhere breaks.
Lazard grades out as an ordinary receiver in almost every metric, and yet … #vibes.
I wish I could explain it. Rodgers obviously trusts him and that’s enough, but counting on him consistently is dangerous. He’s averaging just 37.8 receiving yards over his past four games and, for the season, his yards per route are below his career average.
In Week 5, he had two more air yards than he had in the three games before. For me, that’s more of a red flag than an encouraging note because Wilson and Williams project as more viable threats down the field.
Lazard (WR27 this season) has scored in the majority of his games this season, and that means I’ve been wrong more than I’ve been right up to this point. That said, you should be warned — when this game kicks off, it will have been 377 days since he last caught a TD pass in an even-numbered week.
Is that predictive? Of course not, but nothing in this profile makes much sense to me, so I thought I’d give you an alternative method of research. For those curious, the Jets play two upside offenses over the course of their next three odd-numbered weeks (Houston in Week 9 and Indianapolis in Week 11).
Tyler Conklin, TE
We’ve spent plenty of brainpower through five weeks trying to identify who the second receiver in this offense is. I’ve been on the “Mike Williams is trending up” train while others have been preaching the confidence Rodgers has in Allen Lazard.
Might it just be Conklin?
The big tight end has seen his on-field target share increase in three consecutive weeks, catching 15 balls over that stretch with a pair of 20+ yard receptions.
He’s not a threat to set the fantasy world ablaze, but he’s got a consistent role (at least 28 routes run in every game this season) and seems to have the eye of his Hall of Fame QB, something we saw evidence of by way of a fourth-quarter end-zone target last week in the middle of triple coverage.
Like it or not, Conklin has established a reasonable fantasy floor and can be used with confidence this week, especially if you believe the game script works in his favor with the Bills jumping out to a lead.