The Kansas City Chiefs will host the New Orleans Saints on Monday Night Football in Week 5. The spread currently stands at Chiefs -5, with a game total of 42.5. The Saints’ implied points are 18.8, and the Chiefs’ implied points are 23.8.
Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Chiefs skill player who has the potential to make an impact during the game.
Patrick Mahomes, QB
At what point do we ignore the name on the back of the jersey and focus on the raw production?
Patrick Mahomes hasn’t been a top-15 producer at the position in three straight weeks, and this doesn’t exactly profile as a bounce-back situation with the Saints owning the lowest opponent passer rating against (68.0; NFL average: 90.4).
If you manage your team like I do and refuse to roster multiple quarterbacks, I don’t think you need to panic and make a move. The Saints have allowed the second most yards per pass to the tight end position through four weeks (9.4), and that figures to be where Mahomes is leaning this week as his aging star at the position is seemingly the only skill player on this team that can stay on the field.
Mahomes did drop a dime to Xavier Worthy last week, snapping a 30-game run without a 50-yard touchdown pass, at least giving us a glimpse of what we think could be an impactful connection as this season wears on.
Mahomes is hovering around QB10 in my rankings, his lowest mark of the season, but I doubt I ever get to the point where I’ll consider him an auto-bench.
Kareem Hunt, RB
Well, that didn’t take long. Hunt touched the ball 16 times in his season debut, his highest opportunity count in 1,077 days, a clear indicator that he is positioned to lead this backfield for the foreseeable future.
Kareem Hunt wasn’t necessarily in peak form (his longest gain was just 10 yards), but he did pick up at least five yards on nine of his touches, and that’s appealing for an offense that no longer holds the elevated floor that it entered the season with.
Week 4 snap shares (at LAC):
- Hunt: 43.1%
- Samaje Perine: 41.4%
- Carson Steele: 19%
Perine was essentially a third-down specialist (on the field for 81.3% of third-down snaps), making it Hunt and Steele in a battle for the fantasy-relevant role. It’ll be interesting to see how the Chiefs’ pass rate over expectation adjusts sans Rice, but I expect it to regress a bit; with vacated targets in the short pass game, Hunt sneaks into my RB2 tier this week.
Carson Steele, RB
Carson Steele was the casualty of Hunt’s assertion into the lineup, and that seems more likely than not to stick for as long as the veteran RB is healthy.
Steele has 30 touches this season and has two more fumbles (two) than gains of at least 10 yards. The Chiefs are always in win-now mode, and Hunt simply provides more stability for an offense that is losing pieces weekly.
If you have the luxury of keeping Steele through the Week 6 bye, I would as a way to get access to Andy Reid’s creativity. Yet, cutting ties is a reasonable action if your roster requires you to do so.
Rashee Rice, WR
You hate to see it. Every injury hurts to watch, but a star receiver like Rashee Rice getting banged up while having to play defense following an interception is a different sort of pain.
We will see exactly where Rice’s status stands as the reporting gets ironed out, but it seems safe to rule him out for this week.
Rice’s usage, Weeks 1-3:
- 37.5% reception share
- 43.7% receiving yardage share
It had essentially been accepted that Rice had supplanted Travis Kelce as the go-to option in Kansas City’s offense, making this a big blow that the Chiefs aren’t exactly built to withstand due to injuries to Hollywood Brown and Isiah Pacheco. Let’s take a look at the other options on this roster and see what they offer from a fantasy perspective.
Xavier Worthy, WR
I understand the desire to vault Xavier Worthy up your rest of season rankings, but with limited defensive attention, he’s managed to earn just 15 targets on 104 routes (14.4%, a rate that ranks behind Jonathan Mingo and Chris Conley this season).
That’s not to say Worthy can’t succeed. He very obviously can make the most of low usage (his first target last week resulted in a 54-yard touchdown, all of which were yards gained in the air), but the ability to win targets is only going to get more difficult without Rice attracting attention.
Worthy has seen an end-zone target in three of four games this season, but in a tough matchup, I have him sitting just outside of my top 30 at the position. He’s not the deep-ball-oriented receiver in this game I have ranked highest, and he falls below the boredom line (Wan’Dale Robinson and Khalil Shakir own elevated floors that I prefer in Week 5).
Justin Watson, WR
The route counts from Week 4 might not prove to be exactly how Kansas City goes about replacing Rice, but they are data points that should be acknowledged, as it was how the team elected to adapt on the fly.
Routes run in Week 4:
- Travis Kelce: 32
- Xavier Worthy: 29
- Justin Watson: 25
- JuJu Smith-Schuster: 18
- Noah Gray: 11
- Mecole Hardman: 7
- Skyy Moore: 4
When the Chiefs wanted a slot option next to Kelce, Smith-Schuster was the play (10 slot routes), while Watson got the nod when a perimeter threat was wanted (16 routes out wide). I like Watson to be on the field, which makes him roster worthy. That said, you can’t consider starting him until we get some proof of concept.
Watson has reached double digits in terms of PPR points just once in 10 career games in which he has played at least 65% of snaps (Week 4: 69% snap share). Forecasting him to do so against a Saints defense that has allowed just one touchdown toss on 165 opponent dropbacks this season isn’t wise.
Cheap exposure to a piece tied to Mahomes is a logical desire; I’d just caution against putting the cart before the horse.
Travis Kelce, TE
To the surprise of no one, Travis Kelce saw his usage spike after Rice departed (first half: 37.5% target and 45.5% reception share). Of course, banking on a soon-to-be-35-year-old (birthday: Saturday) to handle a role like that for an extended period is overly optimistic, but could he do it for 60 minutes on Monday night with a bye week coming next week?
I think it’s possible. Kelce’s stock is higher today than it was this time last week, and that’s good news, given the price you paid for him this summer. We will see how long he is asked to carry a heavier workload and if his body can handle it, but in the scope of Week 5, embrace it.