The Houston Texans will host the Buffalo Bills on Sunday in Week 5. The spread currently stands at Texans -1, with a game total of 46.5. The Bills’ implied points are 22.8, and the Texans’ implied points are 23.8.
Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Texans skill player who has the potential to make an impact during the game.
C.J. Stroud, QB
C.J. Stroud has been a version of Allen thus far, but one with a more narrow range of outcomes (QB7 twice this season and outside of the top 12 in the other two weeks). How he gets his fantasy points is a bit different (34.8 passes thrown per game); in this matchup, that introduces a bit of a floor that I don’t believe exists for his opposing number.
The Bills have allowed a league-low 5.5 yards per pass attempt this season, excelling at covering up the perimeter, where Nico Collins traditionally lives. I expect the Texans to get creative with their ace receiver, but there is some risk in this profile that you need to be aware of when it comes to DFS.
The Bills blitz at the lowest rate in the league and that, naturally, comes with lower pressure numbers. In theory, that sounds great for a pocket passer like Stroud, but through four weeks, the numbers don’t reflect that.
Non-pressured numbers:
- 2023: 110.6 passer rating, 9.2 yards per attempt, 5.7% TD rate
- 2024: 95.5 passer rating, 6.8 yards per attempt, 4.8% TD rate
Stroud is my QB6 this week, and I think he’ll be productive, but Allen is my target in this game if that is how you’re piecing together a DFS weekly lineup.
Joe Mixon, RB
All signs pointed to Joe Mixon returning after consecutive DNPs (ankle), but that is not the case as he has been ruled out for Week 5.
That said, I don’t think Cam Akers did enough in his stead (23 touches for 77 yards) to give us any worries about a committee when Mixon returns.
Cam Akers, RB
Cam Akers was not a top-25 running back in either of his opportunities as the starter. If he were to be penciled in as the go-to option this week, he’d be a viable Flex play for me, but nothing more (he caught just one pass across those two games).
Nico Collins, WR
Is Nico Collins poised to be the best receiver in fantasy?
He was one of the five most efficient WRs across numerous metrics last season, and the league leader in receiving yardage hasn’t taken even a half step backward this season. In Week 4, Stroud completed all three of his passes on the first drive, and Collins caught all of them for 49 yards.
This offense has been geared toward getting its star involved in scoring situations (Stroud missed him on an end-zone look last week, that coming after he landed out of bounds on an end-zone fade earlier in the game and another instance in which he was held in the painted area), giving him an elite ceiling/floor profile.
The Bills are as stingy as any team in the league on perimeter passes (45% completion rate, 18.6 points below league average, with four interceptions against just one touchdown), and maybe that caps Collins’ upside this week, but he is a lineup lock that is capable of beating average defensive scheme due to his physical tools and Stroud’s willingness to put him in a position to make plays.
Stefon Diggs, WR
For the second time in three weeks, Stefon Diggs gets a revenge spot, and if this one goes anything like the first (10-94-0 during the Week 3 blowout loss to the Vikings), fantasy managers will be thrilled.
Diggs had a productive Week 4 against the Jaguars (69 receiving yards and a rushing touchdown on what looked like a play designed for Diggs to throw the ball) and is off to a great start in Houston with more top-15 finishes this season than CeeDee Lamb.
I do think Diggs is a sell-high candidate – I’d just hold off on pulling off such a deal until after this week. He’s a fine WR2 in all formats this week, ranking ahead of top targets in Miami, Cleveland, and Carolina.
Tank Dell, WR
After a rookie season filled with splash plays, Tank Dell has found the sledding far more difficult in 2024, and that was before a chest injury that, while not suggested to be a long-term issue, did cost him Week 4.
Dell’s next top-40 finish at the position this season will be his first, fueling my concern that what we saw from him last season may have been aberrational. His size profile was always going to be something to overcome, and it’s proving to be a problem.
Dell’s usage patterns aren’t drastically different than a season ago (a minor uptick in slot snaps has resulted in a manageable decline in average depth of target), but he’s simply struggling to win.
As a rookie, Dell was targeted on 23.4% of the snaps in which he was on the field and racked up 2.22 yards per route run, strong numbers that don’t happen by accident over a 319-route sample size. Thus far in 2024, however, his target rate has slipped to 16.2%, and his yards-per-route-run number has tanked to 0.94.
See what I did there? Dell’s numbers “tanked.” Who says math guys can’t be artists with a pen?
In theory, more slot snaps are a good thing for this specific matchup, but he’s still pretty clearly Houston’s preferred perimeter option next to Collins (13-7 target edge over Diggs when lined up wide in Weeks 1-3). That subjects Dell, assuming health, to the same concerns I brought up in Collins’ profile.
For me, the case for Dell is pretty straightforward — wait and see. This injury, along with limited success, means you have to be patient and hope that the upside from 2023 reappears down the stretch when the Texans are going to be pushed to score in bunches (Weeks 15-17: Dolphins, Chiefs, and Ravens).
Houston doesn’t go on bye until Week 14, meaning that Dell will have to work through this injury without the benefit of an off week. He’s a clear hold in all formats (trading him for pennies on the dollar right now is poor practice). Your goal is to win the war, even if it means losing some early battles.
Dalton Schultz, TE
I promise you that there is going to be a time this season (if there hasn’t been already) where you’re going to be scanning your waiver wire for tight end help, and the “Hey, at least he plays for a good offense” thought will cross your mind.
In theory, I don’t have a problem with that. In practice, at least when it comes to Dalton Schultz, I do.
Schultz has run 135 routes this season, and two have resulted in a target inside the opponent’s 30-yard line. So does he really have the scoring equity that you assume? Schultz turned five targets into 34 yards in the win over the Jaguars last week, good for a TE20 finish, his best of the season.
Schultz is a decent player, but there are better roles for you to invest in.