Making lineup decisions can be the most frustrating — or most rewarding — part of fantasy football. We’re to help you make those decisions with our fantasy start ’em/sit ’em picks.
It’s now Week 16. The fantasy football semifinals. This is the most important week of the season. We have to get these decisions correct. We know who each of these teams are. That allows us to make informed decisions regarding matchups. With that in mind, let’s take a look at our top Week 16 start/sit plays.
Which Players Should You Start in Week 16?
Baker Mayfield, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (at DAL)
It appears Baker Mayfield does not care about facing difficult opponents. The Chargers came into Week 15 as a bottom-eight matchup for quarterbacks. Mayfield decided to throw for 288 yards and four touchdowns against them.
This week, Mayfield gets a Cowboys pass defense that was able to stymie Bryce Young, but still allows the fourth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks.
Any notion that this is a tough matchup can be put to rest by reviewing their weekly performance. This defense has been able to shut down the likes of Deshaun Watson, Drew Lock, and Bryce Young. They couldn’t stop guys like Lamar Jackson, Derek Carr, Jalen Hurts, Joe Burrow. I think we know which group Mayfield is closer to.
Cooper Rush, QB, Dallas Cowboys (vs. TB)
We are sticking with the same game for the second start of the week, while also looking to help out our deep leaguers. Cooper Rush’s first start of the season was an unmitigated disaster, with him throwing for 45 scoreless yards and scoring negative fantasy points. Since then, though, Rush has looked quite competent.
Rush has scored at least 18.8 fantasy points in four of his last five. Here’s a fun little nugget that will be a nice trivia question in a few months when the season isn’t as fresh. Rush, who did not start a game until Week 11, has as many weeks of 20+ fantasy points as Patrick Mahomes and more than C.J. Stroud.
The Bucs allow the second-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks and frequently find themselves in shootouts. Rush is a legitimate streaming option in Week 16.
Chuba Hubbard, RB, Carolina Panthers (vs. ARI)
Hopefully, those of you with Chuba Hubbard either had a bye or were able to overcome his colossal dud against the Cowboys. If you did, don’t turn away from him now.
As disappointing as Hubbard’s 49 scoreless yards were last week, this is a great bounce-back spot in Week 16. The Cardinals just blew out the Patriots at home. Yet, even amidst their dominant win, they allowed Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson to run for a combined 102 yards on 20 carries. Two weeks ago, the Cardinals let Zach Charbonnet torch them for 122 yards on the ground.
With Jonathon Brooks done for the season and Miles Sanders still on IR, Hubbard has seen snap shares of 97% and 95% in his last two games. Fire him up against a Cardinals defense allowing the ninth-most fantasy points per game to running backs.
Sincere McCormick, RB, Las Vegas Raiders (vs. JAX)
As a caveat, this was written before Monday Night Football. I don’t know how Sincere McCormick looked against the Falcons. What I expect is he dominated carries, leaving very little for Alexander Mattison on the ground.
Unless McCormick completely flopped, compelling Antonio Pierce to make yet another change at RB1, McCormick should be in line for another 12-15 carries against the Jaguars this week. Jacksonville has been quite generous to running backs, allowing the third-most fantasy points per game to the position.
With the Raiders home, this could actually be a spot where they enjoy a positive game script, allowing them to lean on the run game, which is what they want to do anyway. The Raiders’ 34% run rate is the lowest in the league, but that’s mostly been a product of game script.
On the rare occasions in which they are playing with a lead (at least seven points), their run rate is 65%, third-highest in the league. That split is jarring, but it speaks to the importance of matchup. This week should favor the ground game.
Malik Nabers, WR, New York Giants (at ATL)
Even playing with Tim Boyle can’t stop Malik Nabers. The talented rookie WR has been more floor than ceiling as of late. He entered Week 15 having hit double-digit fantasy points in six straight games, never more than 15.2 fantasy points. Last week, Nabers posted his best outing since Week 3, catching 10 of 14 targets for 82 yards and a touchdown.
We know Boyle is not an NFL-caliber starting quarterback. But what Boyle did do is pepper his WR1. That’s really all we need.
The Giants should have a hard time moving the ball on the ground against a tough Falcons run defense. What we have here is a classic pass funnel. The Falcons surrender 68.3% of their total receiving yards allowed to wide receivers and allow the fourth-most fantasy points per game to the position. It should be another busy afternoon for Nabers.
Jakobi Meyers, WR, Las Vegas Raiders (vs. JAX)
As a reminder, this is being written prior to Monday Night Football, so I do not have the benefit of knowing how Jakobi Meyers performed. My guess is he was just fine, as he’s been as reliable as they get this season.
Since Week 8, Meyers has scored at least 13.7 fantasy points in all but one game. From Weeks 12-14, Meyers saw a total of 36 targets, with at least 10 in every game. He’s being treated like a clear alpha.
This week, Meyers gets a Jaguars pass defense that was just torched by Davante Adams for nearly 200 yards. They’re allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers.
Even if it’s Desmond Ridder under center, Meyers should see enough volume and be efficient enough to provide WR2 numbers.
Brenton Strange, TE, Jacksonville Jaguars (at LV)
Is this point chasing? Maybe. But it’s hard to deny the usage from Brenton Strange last week. In his first game without Evan Engram, Strange looked like…Evan Engram.
Mac Jones peppered Strange with 12 targets. The tight end caught 11 of them for 73 yards. Strange played 82% of the snaps and ran a route on 82% of Jones’ dropbacks.
With Evan Engram on IR, Brenton Strange ran a route on 82% of Jacksonville's drop backs and saw a 27.9% target share against New York.
— JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB) December 16, 2024
The Raiders allow the fifth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends and only the Chiefs surrender a higher percentage of their total passing yards to the position than Las Vegas. Strange is a top-12 option this week.
Which Players Should You Sit in Week 16?
Justin Herbert, QB, Los Angeles Chargers (vs. DEN)
Beginning in Week 11, I — and many other fantasy analysts — were quite bullish on Justin Herbert’s rest-of-season outlook. He was coming off three straight games with 20+ fantasy points and about to embark on one of the softest stretches of pass defenses in the league.
Things started out well with Hebert posting a season-high 28.38 fantasy points against the Bengals, as teams do against the league’s premier shootout opponent. Since then, though, things have taken a turn.
Herbert’s performance over the past month can be described as nothing short of underwhelming. He hasn’t thrown for more than 218 yards in a game and has three touchdown passes over that span. This has come against three of the worst pass defenses in the league, plus the pass-funnel Chiefs.
From Weeks 8-12, the mobility appeared to return, with Herbert rushing for 49, 2, 32, 65, and 29 yards in his five starts. Since then, across three games, he’s totaled 13 rushing yards.
I don’t see how we can trust Herbert against a Broncos defense that held him to 237 yards and one touchdown back in Week 6 and currently allows the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks.
Jared Goff, QB, Detroit Lions (at CHI)
I know what you’re thinking. Are we really about to bench a guy after he just threw for 494 yards and five touchdowns?
It’s quite ironic that two of the best fantasy performances of the season have come in the past two weeks in losses (Goff and Week 14 Josh Allen). But it’s not entirely unexpected. When elite offenses find themselves behind on the scoreboard, their quarterbacks tend to light up the stat sheet. That’s what happened with Goff in Week 15.
At home, in the friendly confines of his dome stadium, Goff has perfect conditions to produce. After a slow start, Goff started to get rolling in Week 4. Since then, he’s averaged 26.38 fantasy points per game at home. You really aren’t prepared for how bad it’s been on the road…12.99 ppg.
Goff posted 25.1 points in Week 6 at Dallas. That is the only road game all season in which Goff got to 20 fantasy points.
A month ago, Goff played the Bears in Detroit and only had 16.94 fantasy points. Despite their struggles, the Bears allow the fewest fantasy points per game to QBs. This is a bad spot at the worst possible time.
Isiah Pacheco, RB, Kansas City Chiefs (vs. HOU)
If you managed to survive nearly three months without Isiah Pacheco, it has to be really disappointing to see what you waited all this time for. Since returning from IR, Pacheco has not looked the same. I thought he would take over this backfield. That has not been the case.
Pacheco has yet to hit a 50% snap share in any game. And the Chiefs have won all three of their contests since his return. So, we can’t blame game script.
The volume has been fine, with Pacheco seeing 18 and 14 opportunities over his last two. Unfortunately, the production hasn’t followed. Pacheco hasn’t found the end zone and is averaging just 3.2 yards per carry over his last two games. Last week, Kareem Hunt saw 15 opportunities and was slightly better than Pacheco.
Now, Pacheco gets a Texans defense allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs. Adding injury to insult, there’s a chance he will have to go at this defense with Carson Wentz at quarterback.
With no more than 8.1 fantasy points in any of his three games since returning, Pacheco is not someone you can trust this week.
Tyrone Tracy Jr., RB, New York Giants (at ATL)
Last week, Tyrone Tracy Jr. was a sit against a formidable Baltimore Ravens run defense. Hopefully, you were able to get him out of your lineup, as he totaled just 35 yards on 11 touches, scoring 4.5 fantasy points.
While the score certainly played a role, Tracy’s 68% snap share was his lowest in the past three weeks. He also ceded a short touchdown to Devin Singletary, which would’ve salvaged Tracy’s fantasy day if he got it.
Tyrone Tracy had a 68% snap share against the Ravens, a three-week low for him. His 55.6% running back rush share was his lowest since Week 7.
— JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB) December 16, 2024
This week, it may be more of the same against a Falcons defense allowing the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs.
Contributing even more to Tracy’s difficult matchup is the fact that the Falcons surrender just 12.8% of their total passing yards allowed to running backs, making it unlikely Tracy supplements his rushing with quality receiving usage. We are once again headed toward inefficiency for Tracy, making him difficult to trust.
Zay Flowers, WR, Baltimore Ravens (vs. PIT)
When the Ravens last played the Steelers, they scored just 16 points, their lowest output of the season. While I expect the Ravens to play much better this week, I am not optimistic about Zay Flowers playing a big role.
The talented sophomore WR has been all floor lately, scoring between 10 and 12 fantasy points in four consecutive games. One of those came against the Steelers, in which Flowers only got to double-digits because he scored. Otherwise, he had just two catches for 39 yards.
The Steelers allow the 13th-fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers, making them mostly an average matchup. Given Flowers’ recent production, we need a little better than merely average to trust him in fantasy lineups.
Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Arizona Cardinals (at CAR)
Normally, we’re looking to start wide receivers against bad defenses. The problem with the Panthers is they are a bad run defense. Against the pass, they’re mostly mediocre.
The Panthers allow the 15th-fewest fantasy points per game to WRs, which is decidedly average. The real issue is run defense. Carolina’s rush defense success rate is dead last. We just saw the Cardinals dominate the Patriots by leaning on James Conner. They are likely to do it again this week.
Marvin Harrison Jr. is not a featured part of this offense. The Cardinals do not scheme up targets for him. If he gets the ball, it’s largely an accident.
Harrison has now scored below 9.0 fantasy points in seven of his last 10. He has just one game all season with more than five receptions. If you took Harrison in the first round made it this far, congratulations. It is long past time to put him on the bench.
Kyle Pitts, TE, Atlanta Falcons (vs. NYG)
I waffled on whether to include Kyle Pitts, as it does seem like low-hanging fruit. Is anyone still starting Pitts, anyway? Then, I see him 81% rostered in Yahoo leagues. I guess he’s still out there on a bunch of rosters.
Purely looking at Pitts’ performance is enough to want to fade him. This is being written prior to Monday Night Football. Pitts had a very favorable matchup against the Raiders. By the time you’re reading this, you will know how he performed.
Prior to that game, Pitts caught two passes for 23 yards…over his last three combined. In his last five games, Pitts scored 2.4 fantasy points or fewer four times.
I could stop there, but the matchup is also a problem. The Giants are in the midst of a terrible season. Yet, one bright spot has been their ability to shut down tight ends. They’re allowing the third-fewest fantasy points per game to the position. Just last week, even though Mark Andrews scored against them, they held him to just two catches for 24 yards. Pitts may not catch a pass in this one.
Hunter Henry, TE, New England Patriots (at BUF)
The Patriots tight end has actually been disrespected for the entire season. Still rostered in fewer than half of Yahoo leagues, Hunter Henry has posted at least 9.4 fantasy points in seven of his last nine games. But one of those came last week against a Cardinals defense allowing the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends. Now, he gets a Bills defense allowing the eighth-fewest ppg to the position.
Last week, the Bills allowed Sam LaPorta to post his best game of the season (seven catches for 111 yards on 10 targets). However, nearly all of his production came in the second half with the Lions trailing by multiple scores.
The Bills were content to let Jared Goff complete underneath throws to his tight end, burning clock in the process. Drake Maye is unlikely to have the same success moving the ball in an attempt to come back in a game we presume the Patriots will be trailing, making Henry a tough start in the fantasy semifinals.
Sam LaPorta, TE, Detroit Lions (at CHI)
This is a tough week for tight ends. As a result, we have three sits against just one start. Coming off his best game of the season — seven catches for 111 yards — Sam LaPorta has not quite reentered the circle of trust.
It was a unique game environment for the Lions, and not one they are likely to find themselves in again. Detroit could not implement their usual run-heavy approach, having fallen behind early. That resulted in Jared Goff essentially attempting two games’ worth of passes. Naturally, LaPorta provided two games’ worth of production.
When these teams last met in Week 13, LaPorta had a great fantasy outing — 15.6 points. Awesome, right? Not exactly. The sophomore tight end caught three passes for six yards. Two of them just happened to be in the end zone.
This week, look for the Lions to bounce back and smash their divisional foe, leaning heavily on Jahmyr Gibbs. Goff won’t attempt anywhere near 59 passes again, and when he does, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams are likely to reman ahead of LaPorta in the target hierarchy against a Bears defense allowing the 14th-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends.