Making lineup decisions can be the most frustrating — or most rewarding — part of fantasy football. We’re to help you make those decisions with our fantasy start ’em/sit ’em picks.
It’s now Week 15. That means the fantasy playoffs have begun in most leagues. We know who each of these teams are. That allows us to make informed decisions regarding matchups. With that in mind, let’s take a look at our top Week 15 start/sit plays.
Which Players Should You Start in Week 15?
Brock Purdy, QB, San Francisco 49ers (vs. LAR)
I got the sense the fantasy community kind of dismissed Brock Purdy after his disastrous Week 13 in which he threw for 94 scoreless yards in — checks notes — a snowstorm. Surely, Purdy didn’t suddenly become bad at football because he missed a start and then had to navigate a blizzard.
Naturally, Purdy bounced back to his usual self against the Chicago Bears last week, throwing for 325 yards and two touchdowns. This week, Purdy gets a home date against the Los Angeles Rams. It’s a game the 49ers have to win if they want any shot at making the playoffs.
When the 49ers played the Rams back in Week 3, Purdy threw for 292 yards and three touchdowns. He also ran for 41 yards.
Perhaps you didn’t notice, but the Rams just surrendered the single greatest fantasy performance by a QB of all time to Josh Allen. Obviously, Purdy is not Allen. But he is a definite QB1 in Week 15.
Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Miami Dolphins (at HOU)
The Houston Texans have not been a favorable matchup for fantasy quarterbacks, but they haven’t been bad either. They’re allowing the 16th-most fantasy points per game to the position. This is more about the player himself.
Tua Tagovailoa has been on fire as of late. He’s posted at least 23 fantasy points in four straight contests. That’s incredibly hard to do for completely immobile quarterbacks. Tagovailoa has done it by throwing for 11 touchdowns against no interceptions over that span.
The Texans will be well-rested coming off of their bye. As underwhelming as they have been, their offense is still capable of scoring points. In what could be a high-scoring, back-and-forth affair, Tagovailoa is a clear QB1 this week.
Rico Dowdle, RB, Dallas Cowboys (at CAR)
This was written before Monday Night Football. However, what happens (or happened) against the Cincinnati Bengals won’t have any bearing on my confidence in Rico Dowdle this week (as long as he didn’t get hurt).
The Cowboys have seen enough of Ezekiel Elliott. Dowdle has completely taken over this backfield. Before Week 14, Dowdle carried the ball a total of 41 times over his previous two games, amassing 198 rushing yards. He also caught three passes in both games.
Dowdle entered Week 14 averaging a strong 4.48 yards per carry. The Carolina Panthers are allowing the most rushing yards per game by a sizable margin. They also allow the most fantasy points per game to running backs. Basically, everyone can run on the Panthers.
With the Cowboys unlikely to fall into a negative game script, the run should remain on the table. Plus, it’s not like they want to put the ball in Cooper Rush’s hands. Dowdle is a borderline RB1 this week.
Brian Robinson Jr., RB, Washington Commanders (at NO)
For the better part of the past month or so, Brian Robinson Jr. has been dealing with various injuries, limiting his production. The Washington Commanders’ bye week could not have come at a better time. The week off likely allowed Robinson to really rest up, providing him a chance to thrive during this stretch run.
In his return from bye, the matchup also couldn’t be much better. Robinson gets a New Orleans Saints run defense allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game to running backs.
With Derek Carr likely out this week, the Commanders are almost certain to find themselves in a positive game script, allowing them to lean on their run game. Jayden Daniels is certainly capable of doing everything himself, but this shapes up to be a game where Robinson might score three times. Get him in lineups.
DJ Moore, WR, Chicago Bears (at MIN)
It’s been night and day for DJ Moore since the Bears made a change at offensive coordinator. Over the past four weeks, Moore has at least six receptions in every game.
Against the Minnesota Vikings in Week 12, Moore caught all seven of his targets for 106 yards and a touchdown. It’s time to go back to the well.
The Vikings have one of the best offenses in football. They are very likely to force the Bears into a negative game script. Regardless, they are a pass-funnel defense inviting opponents to throw the ball.
The Vikings have been the most favorable matchup for wide receivers all season, allowing the most fantasy points per game to the position. Moore is a great option against a Vikings defense allowing the fourth-most passing yards per game.
Amari Cooper, WR, Buffalo Bills (at DET)
Just in case you weren’t sure, Amari Cooper still has it. Last week, in Josh Allen’s historic performance, Cooper caught six of 14 targets for 95 yards. He still only played 53% of the snaps, but he was Allen’s go-to target.
Amari Cooper led all Bills with 14 targets and a 38% target share. That was by far his highest target share as a Bill — his previous high was 16.7%. That was despite a 63% route participation rate.
— JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB) December 9, 2024
The Buffalo Bills obviously don’t want to be this pass-heavy every week. However, they have shown a willingness to cater their offensive philosophy to the opponent. Running wasn’t working against the Rams, so they aired it out. It certainly isn’t Allen’s fault the Bills lost 44-42.
This week, the Bills get a Detroit Lions defense that is very good at stopping the run but not so great against the pass. I suspect a pass-heavy approach, which is good for Cooper.
The Lions create a game environment conducive to points. They also allow the seventh-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. A league-high 77% of their total receiving yards allowed have gone to the WR position. Look for Cooper to build upon last week’s Bills breakout performance and possibly find the end zone too.
David Njoku, TE, Cleveland Browns (vs. KC)
Perhaps it’s a bit of low-hanging fruit to recommend starting a guy who has scored 17.2 fantasy points in three of his last four games … but David Njoku has 17.2 fantasy points in three of his last four!
The Jameis Winston effect has been real. Njoku averages 10.62 fantasy points per game without Winston against 14.84 ppg with him. The veteran tight end has seen a staggering 30 targets over his last two games.
This week, Njoku gets a Kansas City Chiefs defense that has had a problem stopping tight ends all season. They’re allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to the position. Last week, they even managed to give up 54 yards to the Los Angeles Chargers’ third-string TE, Stone Smartt.
With the Cleveland Browns likely to be trailing and throwing throughout this game, and Winston having no problem airing it out, Njoku is a very strong option and must be in fantasy lineups.
Jake Ferguson, TE, Dallas Cowboys (at CAR)
I must caveat this recommendation with the fact that this was written before Monday Night Football, in which Jake Ferguson is set to make his return after a two-game absence due to a concussion. During his absence, Luke Schoonmaker performed rather admirably as the fill-in starter. If Ferguson doesn’t have his full job back, then he’s probably a no-go. With that said, the matchup sure looks like a good one.
The Panthers have been the best matchup for tight ends all seasons, allowing the most fantasy points per game to the position. A staggering 26% of their total passing yards allowed has gone to tight ends.
Ferguson has been very hit-or-miss all season. He’s also faced very few favorable defenses against tight ends. This projects as a game where Ferguson can thrive, providing fantasy managers with a strong TE1 performance.
Which Players Should You Sit in Week 15?
Baker Mayfield, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (at LAC)
Despite a positive game script against the Las Vegas Raiders last week, Baker Mayfield kept chugging along. He managed to throw for 295 yards and three touchdowns, rewarding fantasy managers who were not afraid of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers running in all of their touchdowns.
This week, things don’t shape up as well. The Chargers allow the 10th-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. They just held Patrick Mahomes to 210 yards passing and one touchdown.
Everything about this game feels like a letdown spot for the Bucs and a bounce-back spot for the Chargers. We could be looking at a floor game for Mayfield. Perhaps you can’t sit him entirely. Just don’t expect fireworks.
C.J. Stroud, QB, Houston Texans (vs. MIA)
It may seem counterintuitive that I’m recommending Tua Tagovailoa as a start due to a potentially favorable offensive environment while simultaneously calling C.J. Stroud a sit. Allow me to explain.
The Texans can score points without needing Stroud. They’ve done it all season by relying on Joe Mixon. That should be the plan once again, as the Dolphins have been stout against the pass.
Miami allows the second-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Stroud has one game all season with more than 20 fantasy points. Since Week 7, he’s scored more than 12.4 fantasy points just twice. The talented but disappointing sophomore quarterback is an easy sit this week.
Tyrone Tracy Jr., RB, New York Giants (vs. BAL)
It’s hard to sit a running back as talented as Tyrone Tracy Jr. with the role he has. Tracy played 83% of the snaps last week, touching the ball 21 times. He actually saw 26 opportunities, as he only caught five of his 10 targets. He’s now played at least 70% of the snaps in four of his last five games.
This is not a timeshare. Tracy is the clear RB1 and Devin Singletary barely plays. But as great as that is, Tracy is still prone to down games in bad matchups.
Since taking over as the RB1 in Week 5, there have certainly been more great games than bad ones. However, Tracy does have three games with single-digit fantasy points. One of those games came against the Philadelphia Eagles’ top run defense.
This week, Tracy has to contend with a Baltimore Ravens run defense allowing the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs. The reality is they’ve been better than that. Those numbers are skewed a bit because Saquon Barkley did Saquon Barkley things to them two weeks ago.
Even with Barkley destroying them (as he does to everyone), the Ravens still allow the fewest rushing yards per game. Tracy can probably salvage his fantasy outing with some receptions, but it projects to be an underwhelming effort from the talented rookie.
Nick Chubb, RB, Cleveland Browns (vs. KC)
Nick Chubb actually had a strong day on the ground last week against the Pittsburgh Steelers, running the ball 11 times for 48 yards. He did not find the end zone, though. Therein lies the problem for Chubb in 2024. If he doesn’t score, he’s not going to come close to being fantasy-viable.
Chubb is clearly not yet 100%. He’s averaging 3.13 yards per carry, a far cry from his career 5.1 ypc average. He has also offered nothing in the passing game, with just 10 targets and five receptions in his seven games. I wish Chubb the best of luck against a Chiefs defense allowing the fewest fantasy points per game to running backs.
The Chiefs allow a paltry 3.8 yards per carry, and their total rushing yards allowed per game is the third-lowest in the league.
Adding to the concern is Chubb’s diminished role in negative game scripts. Chubb has played between 30% and 36% of the snaps in the Browns’ four losses since his return. He was at 59% and 66% in their two wins. Do you think the Browns are going to win this game?
Chubb is a touchdown-or-bust RB3 this week.
Michael Pittman Jr., WR, Indianapolis Colts (at DEN)
Michael Pittman Jr. has been banged up for much of the season. The bye week came at a great time to allow him to rest up and get close to full strength for the close of the year. Unfortunately, things start off in a very difficult spot.
The Indianapolis Colts have to travel to Colorado to face a Denver Broncos team that is also coming off its bye. The Broncos have been a tough matchup for wide receivers all season, allowing the fewest fantasy points per game to the position.
Under Anthony Richardson, the Colts have been better, but the passing volume has not been there. Richardson is averaging just 184.3 passing yards per game since his return to the starting lineup. That does not leave much for Pittman, who is reliant on volume to produce. He is best left on benches this week.
DeVonta Smith, WR, Philadelphia Eagles (vs. PIT)
If you started DeVonta Smith last week, you had to be thrilled he was able to find the end zone. If not, it would have been yet another disastrous outing from the talented but seldom-used wide receiver.
WELCOME BACK SMITTY 6️⃣@DeVontaSmith_6 | #FlyEaglesFly pic.twitter.com/cjE3zHklcH
— Philadelphia Eagles (@Eagles) December 8, 2024
Since Week 10, Smith has not caught more than four passes in a game, and his best receiving-yardage total was last week’s 37 yards.
Barkley’s ascent into a mythical creature has cratered the Eagles’ pass volume. Since Week 6, Jalen Hurts has attempted more than 25 passes in a game just once. It’s very difficult for any of his pass-catchers to return value with that little volume. It’s even more difficult when the guy opposite Smith is A.J. Brown.
This week, Smith gets a Steelers defense allowing the eighth-fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers. It’s another game where the Eagles are likely to ride Barkley. Unless Smith can score again, he’s likely to disappoint.
Mark Andrews, TE, Baltimore Ravens (at NYG)
It goes without saying that this season hasn’t exactly gone as planned for the New York Giants. While they’ve struggled to play defense and win games, in general, though, they have been very good at specifically defending the tight end.
Mark Andrews has already been a volatile option this season, relying heavily on touchdowns. Andrews has seen a career-low 14.2% target share. He’s only run a route on 55% of Lamar Jackson’s dropbacks, which is a rate outside of the top 25.
Andrews seems to do his best when the Ravens are in a spot where they have to throw. That is unlikely to be this week against a Giants defense that cannot stop the run. Making matters worse, the Giants allow the third-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends. Fewer than 17% of their total passing yards allowed has gone to the position.
This smells like one of those games where Andrews catches a total of three passes for 30 yards, sorely disappointing fantasy managers in the first round of the playoffs.
Sam LaPorta, TE, Detroit Lions (vs. BUF)
Last week, Sam LaPorta had 54 receiving yards against the Green Bay Packers. That represented his second-highest total of the season. For comparison, LaPorta had seven such games last season, six of which had already occurred by this point.
LaPorta is still very clearly a talented player. The issue has been a change in the Lions’ offensive philosophy. Regardless of the reason, though, LaPorta is not anywhere near the fantasy asset. In fact, it’s fair to say he hasn’t been an asset at all.
Week 14 was the first time all season LaPorta hit double-digit fantasy points without scoring a touchdown. Of course, there’s always a chance he scores, as he remains an excellent end-zone option. But if he doesn’t, he almost certainly won’t be a TE1.
Good luck to LaPorta this week against a Bills defense allowing the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends. With the Bills more vulnerable on the ground and the Lions content to run the ball as much as possible, this shapes up to be a heavy David Montgomery/Jahmyr Gibbs game. Maybe LaPorta catches a short touchdown. If not, he will be a gaping hole in your lineup.