The definition of “fantasy football sleepers” has evolved with time. Years ago, they were players who the general public had never heard of, let alone considered as a legitimate fantasy asset.
The days of the truly hidden gem are gone due to the ease of access to information, but that doesn’t mean the market is perfect. Here is a player for every NFL team that is being selected in the second half of fantasy drafts, if at all, but has far more potential than they are given credit for.
Fantasy Football Sleepers | AFC East
Buffalo Bills: Ray Davis, RB
James Cook ranked 10th in touches at the RB position but 24th in red-zone touches, a ranking that is even more mind-blowing when you realize that the Bills ranked fifth in drives that landed inside the opponents’ 20-yard line.
Davis isn’t generating a ton of “goal-line vulture” talk because Buffalo’s best asset in such situations sets up under center. But what if the drafting of Ray Davis was in response to new offensive coordinator admitting that the in-close usage for Josh Allen was a bit too much?
In 2023, Allen essentially doubled his career average for rushing touchdowns in a season. If he trends closer to his traditional mark, could Davis pick up the difference?
I’m not calling it likely, but at his current ADP, I’m willing to gamble.
Miami Dolphins: Jaylen Wright, RB
Jaylen Wright’s speed is enticing, but fantasy managers have been skeptical about investing redraft dollars in him with not one but two productive running backs easily ahead of him on Miami’s depth chart.
But is that right? Doesn’t that just double his chances of getting on the field via an injury for one of the most explosive offenses in the league?
Last season proves that the Dolphins’ offense can sustain two viable backs at a time. Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane were both top-10 RBs in 2023, combining for over 35 fantasy points per game, yet both carry at least some injury risk.
- Mostert: Age-32 season, 57.9% of his career carries have come in the past two seasons.
- Achane: Missed a game with a shoulder sprain and a month with a knee sprain.
I don’t want to say Wright could be a 2024 injury to Achane away from being 2023 Achane, but it’s not impossible and well worth his current asking price.
New York Jets: Mike Williams, WR
During his last two seasons in Green Bay, Aaron Rodgers funneled over five targets per game to a tall WR2 (Romeo Doubs in 2022 and Marquez Valdes-Scantling in 2021) — a role that Williams finds himself in.
There is risk involved (health or otherwise), but over his past 12 games with over five targets earned, Mike Williams has produced 1.885 PPR fantasy points per target.
- 2023 DK Metcalf: 1.895 points per target
- 2023 A.J. Brown: 1.858 points per target
Obviously, Williams isn’t one of those guys, but the idea that he can be that efficient outside of the first 100 picks is encouraging. What if we used a receiver over 6’ tall operating as the clear-cut WR2 in a new offense as a data point?
- 2023 Jakobi Meyers: 1.884 points per target
If we get Meyers’ numbers (71-807-8 in 16 games) from Williams with a late-round selection, we’re profiting. And that’s without adjusting for the potential that Rodgers returns to even 80% of his pre-injury form.
New England Patriots: Ja’Lynn Polk, WR
The same way in not all calories are the same, not all targets are the same. That said, in 2024, even the ugly offenses have the potential to provide some support through the air, and if that’s going to be the case for the Pats, their second-round pick out of Washington could be the beneficiary.
MORE: PFN’s Consensus Fantasy Football Rankings
Can Ja’Lynn Polk earn 21% of the targets? That doesn’t seem like a high bar to clear, given the lack of other options and his immediate role. Last season, 38 qualified receivers hit that threshold and 31 of them averaged over 12 PPR points per game (the number it took to be a top-36 performer at the position).
A breakout for Polk isn’t going to look anything like 2023 Puka Nacua, but he should be involved, which gives him Flex appeal in PPR leagues.
Fantasy Football Sleepers | AFC North
Cincinnati Bengals: Mike Gesicki, TE
At the very end of drafts, you’re betting on a profile more than anything.
Mike Gesicki is on this third team in as many years, but he might finally be put in a position to matter in deep fantasy leagues. He’s caught just 61 passes for 608 yards over the past two seasons — numbers that came in the first season of the Tyreek Hill era with the Miami Dolphins and another in an inept New England Patriots environment.
Gesicki has been used as a blocker on just 28.8% of his career offensive snaps, making him a receiver masked as a tight end. With a skill set like that, I’m happy to bet on an elite pocket passer in Joe Burrow.
Gone from Cincinnati’s offense is a short-yardage specialist in Tyler Boyd, and he’s been replaced by a splash playmaker in rookie Jermaine Burton (18.0 yards per catch during his collegiate career). That opens up a role that might not come with significant upside but should offer a nice floor for those patch-working together the position late in drafts.
Baltimore Ravens: Isaiah Likely, TE
If I’m waiting to address the tight end position, my first option has to come with top-10 upside. In taking over for Mark Andrews, Isaiah Likely scored five times in five games to close the 2023 regular season, making a 25+ yard catch in each of those contests.
The athletic profile is elite for this position at the professional level. The upside is no longer a secret if given the TE1 role, but counting on Andrews missing significant time like he did last season isn’t wise (seven missed games in 2023 after missing five games through his first five seasons).
However, I don’t think Likely needs an injury to matter.
One of Isaiah Likely's most iconic plays from 2023 was this 15-yard TD catch vs the Texans in the Divisional round. The catch capped a 12-play, 93-yard drive early in the 4th Q, and showed the trust that Lamar Jackson has in the talented "backup" TE.
#Ravens #RavensFlock pic.twitter.com/2wSibV7Hx6— All 22 Films (@All_22_NFL_Cuts) May 6, 2024
For his career, Likely has earned a target on 18.7% of his routes run with Andrews on the field compared to 17.8% without him. That’s a small sample, but it is some proof of concept and Todd Monken is the type of offensive coordinator who I’m comfortable betting on when it comes to creativity.
Zay Flowers is the clear-cut WR1 on Baltimore’s offense and should build on a rookie season that saw him flash at points. After him, this receiver room is awfully thin. Rashod Bateman is the owner of the second-highest drop rate among qualified receivers since he entered the league while ranking in the 30th percentile in yards per route over that stretch.
MORE: Try PFN’s “Who Should I Draft?” Tool
If not Bateman, Nelson Agholor is next on Baltimore’s depth chart, but his résumé isn’t much more impressive. Last season, 73 receivers had at least as many catches as Agholor, and all of them earned a target on a higher percentage of their routes (13%, NFL WR average: 21.3%).
Monken can be an offensive artist. He can create something beautiful, but he needs the proper tools to make it work.
I think, next to Flowers and Andrews, Likely’s versatility gives this da Vinci the best chance at constructing a 2024 Mona Lisa and thus carries enough fantasy upside to stash as your draft concludes.
Cleveland Browns: Deshaun Watson, QB
Is it possible that Deshaun Watson simply was never right last season?
It’s seemingly been forever since he mattered on a consistent basis for us, but Watson is still under 30 years of age, carries rushing upside, and has a clear-cut WR1 to lean on.
Next to Amari Cooper is Jerry Jeudy in his attempt to revive his career and David Njoku coming off of a career year (albeit largely without Watson throwing him the ball). An athletic QB with at least three viable pass catchers and an uncertain running game until Nick Chubb returns — that’s the exact profile we dream of.
Watson comes with plenty of downside, but with an ADP well outside of the top 15 at the position, your expectations are measured. His name no longer drives his ADP to a point where all of the upside is sucked out — a healthy Watson could return top 100 players.
At the very least, Cleveland’s opening schedule should allow Watson to get you through the first half of the season.
- Week 1 vs. Cowboys
- Week 2 at Jaguars
- Week 3 vs. Giants
- Week 4 at Raiders
- Week 5 at Commanders
- Week 6 at Eagles
- Week 7 vs. Bengals
If you’re streaming the position, Watson should be able to get you through the start of the season while you keep an eye on other options. Remember — early-season wins are just as valuable as late-season ones.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Roman Wilson, WR
No one is going to pick up the exact role that has been vacated by Johnson. That said, the Steelers made changes under center this offseason and elected to spend a third-round pick on a complement.
Wilson averaged over 15 yards per catch during each of his final three seasons at Michigan, and he scored on 19.4% of his catches. Whether that means running fly routes for Russell Wilson’s pretty deep ball or getting extra time to separate as Justin Fields runs around, I think he’s a decent fit alongside George Pickens.
More importantly for this call than Wilson’s potential is my lack of confidence in those pushing him for looks. Van Jefferson is on his third roster in two seasons, and no other WR on Pittsburgh’s roster has any proof of concept when it comes to earning targets at the professional level.
This projects to be an underwhelming offense and, thus, isn’t one I’d look to for a sleeper. If I’m going in that direction, I want a player who we’ve yet to see fail at the NFL level.
Fantasy Football Sleepers | AFC South
Houston Texans: Dalton Schultz, TE
Since 2021, Dalton Schultz has averaged more PPR fantasy points per target than T.J. Hockenson and Njoku — tight ends with a much higher profile in fantasy football. Schultz had six games during the regular season with a 20+ yard catch and had such a play in both playoff contests, proving that being tied to a C.J. Stroud-led offense can elevate his stock.
The concern, of course, is the target count, and I’m not here to tell you that it’s going to be pretty. The opportunity count is going to be low, and you’ll be relying on efficiency/touchdowns. That, however, is likely going to be the case on any tight end in a punt-TE build.
Schultz comes with contingent value that far exceeds the other tight ends in his range.
Talent, opportunity, and environment. In the late rounds, if you can get a player who checks two of those boxes, you take it. Schultz does, and he’s one injury away from being very interesting in an offense that is the betting favorite to lead the league in passing scores.
Indianapolis Colts: Josh Downs, WR
I believe in the Anthony Richardson wave lifting all boats, and there’s a decent chance that this offense’s best days in 2024 come at the perfect time for fantasy managers.
Alec Pierce and Adonai Mitchell are with Josh Downs in the competition for targets behind Michael Pittman Jr. Instead of trying to split hairs in terms of raw talent, I’m taking a role approach.
MORE: Try PFN’s Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer
Pierce and Mitchell are going to stretch the field, while Downs figures to assume more of a short-yardage role out of the slot. The splash plays will go elsewhere, but if you told me that a non-Pittman receiver on this team had 10 usable weeks in PPR formats, Downs would be my pick.
This is a roster construction situation. There’s a time and a place to speculate on the ceiling potential of Pierce/Mitchell, but if you’re looking for a weekly floor to offset some volatility among your starters, Downs is a fine buy assuming health.
Tennessee Titans: Will Levis, QB
We in the fantasy community spend a lot of time and energy trying to predict what it is that teams want to do. So it’s awfully nice when a team makes numerous moves pointing in the same direction to eliminate the guesswork we need to do.
Will Levis = Stud pic.twitter.com/1n4qi7Ln83
— PlayerProfiler (@rotounderworld) November 3, 2023
This offseason, the Titans moved on from a one-dimensional running back with over 2,000 carries to a versatile one with under 1,000. They inked a former WR1 to a four-year deal and made him the 10th-highest-paid player at the position in terms of average annual dollars. Tennessee also reunited a veteran slot receiver with his former offensive coordinator to give this pass game balance.
Whether you think Will Levis is destined to be a good real-life quarterback or not, Tennessee is going about the evaluation process in a smart way — load up the skill positions around him and give him a chance to succeed.
The Titans’ commitment to increased aggression in an offense led by a second-round quarterback checks a few boxes that have proven advantageous.
Since 2000, eight times has a quarterback not drafted in the first round thrown 250+ passes in each of his first two seasons. As a collective, they saw their fantasy production increase by 11.9% in their second season (average: 15.8 ppg).
Teams that have committed to this profile have been rewarded with better play, and the odds of that happening only increase if you believe that these offseason acquisitions are complemented by a shift in play-calling.
Over the past two seasons, 10 times has a team seen its pass rate over expectation ranking increase by 8+ spots, a level of growth that is certainly in play here (Tennessee ranked 28th last season). In those 10 instances, they got 11.1% more fantasy points per game from the QB position than they did the year prior (average: 17.9 ppg).
That 17.9 number is on the optimistic side of outcomes and would have ranked as QB11 last season (between Justin Herbert and Justin Fields), less than one point away from QB5 honors. If you split the difference between those two averages listed above, we’re talking about QB15, a valuable finish for a quarterback who is free at the end of your draft.
Draft Levis as a backup if you aren’t comfortable with him as your starter. He has an early bye (Week 5) that won’t impact what you’re doing and could develop into a trade asset as the season progresses.
The Titans don’t have a single negative matchup after hosting the New England Patriots in Week 9, a finishing kick that could make him a highly valuable commodity to the right fantasy team.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Brian Thomas Jr., WR
The rookie is going as high as anyone on this list (late 10th round), but I wanted to mention Brian Thomas Jr. because he seems to be overlooked due to the top-end talent in the 2024 WR class.
From a talent standpoint, I understand him not being in the same conversation as Malik Nabers and Rome Odunze, but fantasy is a game played in the box scores. Thomas has a chance to be the WR1 for an offense with its long-term answer at quarterback. Nabers doesn’t check either of those boxes, and Odunze is fighting to be labeled the third option in a passing game centered around a rookie QB.
I think it’s likely that Thomas outproduces Odunze despite being picked two rounds later, and I wouldn’t call you crazy if you said he kept pace with Nabers. The Jaguars ranked fifth in pass rate over expectation last season and saw Calvin Ridley take his talents to Tennessee this offseason. The table is set for a strong return on investment on the former LSU star.
Fantasy Football Sleepers | AFC West
Kansas City Chiefs: Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB
We know who the Chiefs are, and that means finding a sleeper on this roster is largely an exercise in futility. Wanting a piece of Kansas City’s offense is logical, but it’s also what drives the ADPs up for the six primary players.
I think Rashee Rice is a Round 2 pick if not suspended, so that makes him a nice pick at cost right now, but that could change at a moment’s notice. Clyde Edwards-Helaire is in the final year of his rookie deal and could be fighting for his NFL life if given the opportunity.
For his career, CEH averages one touchdown for every 27.9 touches. That’s a good enough rate to give him the leg-up over Deneric Prince for the RB2 role behind Isiah Pacheco.
I don’t see a universe in which KC’s offense goes to a two-back system where multiple options hold standalone value. However, handcuffing a workhorse in one of the best offenses in the game isn’t a bad way to spend your final selection.
Los Angeles Chargers: Kimani Vidal, RB
I live life trying to eliminate uncertainty. I check the weather before I go for a run, consult the menu before I go out, and refuse to play games of chance. Some call me boring. Many, actually.
This is where I let my hair down. When I’m drafting in the late stages, I’m all in on chaos. Give me a backfield that lacks role clarity and comes preloaded with a run-centric playbook, and I’ll take a flier on just about anyone.
Kimani Vidal is in that spot this season. The Bolts are without Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Austin Ekeler this season. Gus Edwards cashed in on a career season with the explosive Ravens, and J.K. Dobbins is trying to come back from yet another serious injury.
To say the Chargers’ offense is searching for answers would be an understatement, so why can’t Vidal be the answer?
He totaled over 3,000 total yards during his final two collegiate seasons and has the frame (5’8”, 215 pounds) of an instant-impact RB.
To keep with the analogy, Vidal busting would be like catching a single raindrop during a run or an Italian restaurant not offering veal parm. It’s a setback, but the day is not ruined.
At cost, there’s no real risk in scooping Vidal and playing the waiting game. You’re not planning on playing any of your reserves in the early going, and there is certainly the potential for Vidal to develop with time into a part of your weekly Flex conversation by November.
Denver Broncos: Marvin Mims Jr., WR
Coming out of drafts, I want my bench to be loaded with talents I believe in or players attached to a coach I trust. Marvin Mims Jr. is certainly the latter, as we haven’t seen enough of him at the professional level to make strong statements. However, Sean Payton has the sort of résumé that demands respect.
The Broncos dealt Jeudy to the Browns in March, opening up a role for Mims to step into. That’s not to say he’ll be a supreme target earner, but if Mims generates even five looks per game (something that 50 receivers did last season), his speed could be interesting more often than not.
Mims averaged 17.1 yards per catch last season and 20.1 in his final season at Oklahoma. Denver will have to keep up with three teams that have their franchise quarterback on the roster during the fantasy playoffs, an environment that could make Mims an asset for undermanned teams looking to pull off a major upset on their way to fantasy glory.
Las Vegas Raiders: Jakobi Meyers, WR
Jakobi Meyers was hardly drafted at all last season but produced in a meaningful way (71-807-8 in 16 games) despite limitations under center. Yet, he’s available in the 12th round of most drafts, with a handful of kickers currently holding a higher ADP.
Make it make sense.
Most are operating under the assumption that Aidan O’Connell will lead the Raiders in pass attempts this season when all is said and done, so let’s drill down on that a bit.
O’Connell’s passes last season …
- Davante Adams: 19% under expectation with four scores on 108 targets
- Jakobi Meyers: 12.2% over expectation with four scores on 55 targets
You could argue regression if you’d like, but at this asking price, I’m happy to take the flier on Meyers simply fitting O’Connell’s eye. There is increased target competition thanks to the drafting of Brock Bowers, but is it not at least possible that the addition of a reliable target is a net positive for Meyers?
The Raiders were a bottom-10 offense in terms of staying on the field (third-down conversion rate and time of possession) and generating scoring chances (red-zone drives) last season. If a few less targets means an increase in every target as a whole, I’m fine with that.
It’s not crazy at all to think there is more juice to squeeze here than out of Tyler Lockett, a take that seems spicy given the difference in ADP.
Fantasy Football Sleepers | NFC East
Dallas Cowboys: Jalen Tolbert, WR
The Cowboys’ offense is geared to offer value to three pass catchers. Last season, they ranked fourth in pass rate over expectation, and that was with them wanting to explore what Tony Pollard could be as a featured back.
They know what Ezekiel Elliott is/isn’t capable of, which has me thinking Dallas is a threat to lead the league in PROE this year. Brandin Cooks occupied the valuable WR2 role in this offense last season, and while he put up viable numbers, he posted the worst yards per route run season of his career.
MORE: 7 Fantasy Football Sleepers to Target in 2024
When I hit a sleeper, I want to be rewarded in a significant way, and Jalen Tolbert offers that potential. If a receiver like DeMario Douglas overachieves, how many weeks did it really matter for you? Cooks was a top-30 receiver on seven occasions last season — hitting in that fashion would matter in a big way.
Philadelphia Eagles: Defense/Special Teams
This side of the ball is clearly a weakness for the Eagles when it comes to their ability to win at a high level, but that doesn’t mean they can’t produce reasonable fantasy numbers in September.
The Jets are the only team over the past two years that generates pressure at a higher rate while blitzing at a lower rate than the Birds. That is a valuable skill and one that Vic Fangio’s Dolphins did as well as anyone in 2023 (fourth in pressure rate and 27th in blitz percentage).
With Fangio taking over the coordinator duties in Philly, it’s reasonable to expect more of the same, and I’ll take that profile against pocket passers every day of the week. Through the first four weeks of the season, the quarterbacks in line to face the Eagles scored 93.5% of their fantasy points last season with their arms.
Under no circumstances am I paying up for a defense, which means I’m taking one with my final pick on a regular basis. Give me the Eagles as one that will be available and has a path to return top-12 value prior to their Week 5 bye.
Washington Commanders: Jahan Dotson, WR
Ready for a scolding hot take? I’m not sure Jahan Dotson’s sophomore season was that much different than his rookie campaign that put him on our redraft radars.
Yes, the counting numbers tanked (49-518-4 last season in 17 games after 35-523-7 in 2022 in just 12 contests), but the profile kind of looks the same.
- 2022: 13.1% of targets came in the end zone
- 2023: 14.5% of targets came in the end zone
- 2022: 38.1% deep catch rate
- 2023: 43.8% deep catch rate
- 2022: 15.2% red-zone target share
- 2023: 15.5% red-zone target share
In some respects, Dotson was better last year despite the lack of production. I’m not saying that makes him bulletproof in 2024, but if Jayden Daniels is worth the hype, is Dotson not at least worthy of a speculative pick after the first 12 rounds?
For what it’s worth, seven different Tigers had a 45+ yard catch last season in a Daniels-led LSU aerial attack.
New York Giants: Tyrone Tracy Jr., RB
What if Devin Singletary is nothing more than ordinary? He’s spent all five of his seasons in offenses with a franchise QB under center (four with Allen and last year with Stroud) and considerable amounts of upside.
It’s safe to say that the Giants don’t check those boxes.
Despite the positive surrounding environment, Singletary averaged a career-low 0.19 PPR fantasy points per opportunity (targets + rush attempts), ranking him 31st of 35 qualifiers at the position.
The G-men spent a fifth-round pick on Tyrone Tracy Jr., a Boilermaker who showed some efficiency and versatility while in college. The rookie’s ADP is low because of the three-year contract that Singletary signed this offseason, and that, theoretically, gives him the leg-up role-wise early in the season.
That said, you’re not drafting Tracy for the beginning of the season before injuries and byes take a bite out of your lineup. You’re hoping for a role that carries volume down the stretch.
This is a low-risk, high-reward investment, which is exactly how I like to spend my picks in the double-digit rounds.
Fantasy Football Sleepers | NFC North
Detroit Lions: Jameson Williams, WR
In his first four games last season, Jameson Williams was on the field for the upstart Lions for just 38.3% of their offensive snaps. Following that (including the playoffs), his snap rate spiked to 62.5%.
The funniest thing happened; Detroit scored 30+ points in the majority of those games. The game-breaking athleticism isn’t a secret, but it also might not be defendable.
Cooks, DeVonta Smith, Jordan Addison, and Tank Dell all produced good-to-great numbers given their preseason expectations. They all owned an above-average aDOT (average depth of target) while playing alongside a top-10 receiver.
With an ADP well outside of the top 100 overall, Williams simply owning high one-week upside is enough to pay off picking him. I view that as his floor in 2024, with his ceiling being that of a player you consider for your Flex spot on a regular basis, especially given the largely weatherproof nature of Detroit’s schedule.
Green Bay Packers: MarShawn Lloyd, RB
Thanks to the massive 2022 season (2,053 yards and 12 touchdowns), the perception of Josh Jacobs is a little more favorable than his résumé suggests is wise. That was the only season of his career in which he’s played every game and saw him rack up 4.9 yards per carry. He’s been held under 4.1 in his three most recent seasons outside of that outlier year.
The Packers made the move to feature Jacobs after moving on from Aaron Jones and are pretty clearly trying to push the envelope to win now. On the surface, a four-year deal would suggest that Green Bay is significantly tied to its new RB1.
However, with a potential out after this season, the Packers are likely to be honest in their evaluation of their backfield. That gives MarShawn Lloyd more role upside than is being baked into his current ADP.
Jordan Love had essentially the same passer rating as Stroud in play-action situations, averaging more yards per pass on those plays than Patrick Mahomes.
Green Bay is going to continue trying to establish the run to open up opportunities for Love to thrive, and if Lloyd impresses early, he could carve out a niche in this upward-trending offense in rather short order.
Chicago Bears: Khalil Herbert, RB
It wasn’t long ago that fragility concerns were at the forefront of D’Andre Swift’s analysis, and now, after bell-cow season, has that storyline disappeared?
You could argue that a player seeing a spike in usage like he did last year (268 touches in 2023 after totaling 147 in 2022) is at risk of seeing his body break down a bit in the follow-up campaign.
RB Leaders in YPC Since 2021 (min. 350 carries)
- Nick Chubb
- Christian McCaffrey
- Jonathan Taylor
- Raheem Mostert
- Aaron Jones
- Khalil Herbert
We all like the Bears to be on the shortlist for the most improved offense in the NFL this season, and that puts them in position to drag along a running back for the ride.
Khalil Herbert lacks versatility, which is not ideal. Yet, with four players ahead of the RB position in Chicago’s target hierarchy, I’m not sure how much fantasy meat is being left on the bone via a limited skill set.
Minnesota Vikings: Ty Chandler, RB
We only have 129 NFL touches to judge Ty Chandler. And with only one collegiate season of 150+ touches, his evaluation requires some guesswork.
What we can say with confidence is that Chandler runs hard, or, at the very least, he’s good at falling forward.
Touchdown Ty Chandler!
📺: MINvsCIN @NFLNetwork
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/vtmfEKvOLy pic.twitter.com/O8u6w4GMCV— NFL (@NFL) December 16, 2023
That may not seem like the sexiest of skills, but if Chandler can carve out a 10-15 touch role, he’s going to be on Flex radars. A season ago, 49 running backs had at least 100 carries, and Chandler ranked seventh among them in the percentage of carries that gained yardage.
For reference, here’s what the back end of that metric’s top 10 looked like:
7. Ty Chandler: 86.3%
8. Christian McCaffrey: 84.9%
9. De’Von Achane: 84.5%
10. Derrick Henry: 84.3%
I’m going to guess you didn’t think you’d see those four names on the same statistical list. Chandler isn’t on par with those fantasy superstars, but the fact that he’s been viable when given the opportunity is encouraging if you’re buying my argument that he could find himself on the plus side of a committee with time.
Even if you’re not with me, the contingent value is worth a dart throw at his current price. Jones has missed multiple games in three of the past four seasons, including six DNPs in 2023.
Fantasy Football Sleepers | NFC South
Atlanta Falcons: Tyler Allgeier, RB
From a profile standpoint, the idea of Tyler Allgeier is simple: I’ll never have to make a decision about playing him. If Bijan Robinson is healthy, I have better options. If Robinson were to get hurt, I’m penciling in Allgeier for 70% of his production and starting him.
Context: Robinson is my RB2 this season, and 70% of RB2 last season would have been 14.9 fantasy ppg, good for RB15 honors.
Situation aside, Allgeier might just be a decent player. Last season, he ranked 22nd among running backs in production compared to expectation, one slot behind what Robinson produced in the exact same environment.
I don’t doubt that Allgeier is an NFL-caliber running back, and I’d be comfortable playing him as a high-floor option if the situation presented itself.
New Orleans Saints: Derek Carr, QB
If you want to win a bar bet, simply ask someone to name the two quarterbacks who, since 2020, have seen over 40% of their passing fantasy points come via the deep pass.
Jalen Hurts is one of the answers and that tracks. He threatens defenses in a variety of ways and has a pair of elite playmakers.
Based on the heading, you know that Derek Carr is the other. Of course, part of that is that he isn’t a high-volume passer, but the soft touch on those long throws is something that largely goes unnoticed.
Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed are known quantities when it comes to home-run hitting — both of whom return and could be set for career years. But this is the part that has me interested in Superflex situations …
- 6’2” Cedrick Wilson Jr.
- 6’2” Marquez Callaway
- 6’5” A.T. Perry
Those are the next three receivers in my 2024 target projection for the Saints, and they’re all on the right side of 30 years old. Carr doesn’t go about accumulating fantasy points in the most exciting of fashions, but there is more potential than the public assumes. Sharp fantasy managers will take advantage of it.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Bucky Irving, RB
Bucky Irving cleared 1,000 rushing yards and 30 catches in each of his two seasons at Oregon, a versatile skill set that makes him an interesting fantasy option if given the chance.
Rachaad White produced for us last season, but is it that crazy to think that the Bucs could give their fourth-round pick some work? Of the 35 running backs with 150+ carries in 2023, White ranked 34th in percentage of attempts that picked up 5+ yards (28.3%, league RB average: 33.7%).
Rookie running backs burst on the scene when they’re given the opportunity to be on the field, either because of their raw talent or the incumbent struggles. In Tampa Bay, both of those boxes could be checked. It’ll cost you nothing to find out (over 30 kickers and D/ST currently hold a higher ADP than Irving).
Carolina Panthers: Bryce Young, QB
The Year 2 bump is clearly something you’re banking on if you’re going down this route in a Superflex setting. And when you combine that promise with the QB whispering capabilities of Dave Canales, things could get interesting as Carolina is routinely playing catch-up.
Canales was the quarterbacks coach in Seattle in 2022 and took over the offensive coordinator duties in Tampa Bay last season. You could, rather easily, argue that the quarterback who outperformed expectations by the most in each of those seasons came under the guiding hand of Canales.
Geno Smith had yet to develop consistency pre-Canales and was 15.3% worse in terms of fantasy points per game the year after he left.
Baker Mayfield, meanwhile, saw his fantasy production increase by 22.9% in Year 1 under Canales when compared to his three seasons prior.
The Panthers added a proven target earner in Diontae Johnson this offseason, giving Young a path to more consistency. He’s not going to be a starter in 1QB leagues, but outright dismissing him in deeper formats isn’t wise.
Fantasy Football Sleepers | NFC West
San Francisco 49ers: Isaac Guerendo, RB
Nobody is Christian McCaffrey, but Isaac Guerendo has a similar physical makeup and a level of versatility that would instantly become interesting should CMC go down (over 1,800 regular-season touches).
Guerendo was a wide receiver in high school and averaged 10.6 yards per reception last season at Louisville in addition to scoring 11 times on the ground. He has more draft capital investment than Elijah Mitchell, and the 49ers went out of their way to add depth at the position.
San Francisco closes the regular season with the Dolphins, Lions, and Cardinals. If McCaffrey is banged up and the team rests him down the stretch to prepare for the playoffs, we could be looking at a Flex option when it matters most in advantageous matchups.
Arizona Cardinals: Michael Wilson, WR
The 6’2” Michael Wilson averaged 14.9 yards per catch as a rookie and seems to be the forgotten man as the industry as a whole pencils the Cardinals in for a significant step forward offensively.
There’s no question that Wilson’s ceiling is the third option in the passing game, with Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride the alphas. However, if Arizona’s offense takes off the way we believe it can, an athletic third option could sneak into Flex radars by way of the big play.
Asking for consistent production is a bit optimistic, but 4-6 targets on a regular basis could easily happen. Wilson’s profile puts him in a position to make plays if given that level of opportunity.
Los Angeles Rams: Blake Corum, RB
Kyren Williams missed five games last season, and yet, he was handed the ball 20+ times in a league-high seven games. Yes, he’s a great player, but the Rams made it clear with the drafting of Blake Corum that burning out Williams again isn’t in their plans.
That’s not to say that Corum will hold standalone value in an offense that has three fantasy staples. Yet, I do believe he’ll get consistent usage with strong contingent upside.
If Corum can carve out a 6-10 touch role, there’s “break in case of emergency” Flex value should your roster fall a certain way. But you’re drafting him as one of the better handcuffs in the sport, targeting the lack of depth behind him (Boston Scott and Ronnie Rivers) as a driving factor.
Seattle Seahawks: Zach Charbonnet, RB
Among the 35 running backs with 150+ carries last season, Kenneth Walker III’s rate of gaining yardage was seventh lowest (78.5%, below the rates of a declining Elliott and Alexander Mattison).
Seattle’s starter is a home-run hitter, but the lack of consistency is a problem and could result in the team shifting some usage the way of Zach Charbonnet.
As a rookie, Charbonnet caught 82.5% of his targets, a level of versatility that gives him a path to Flex value. I don’t think it’s likely that he unseats Walker, but the 80+ pick discount is interesting, at the very least, for fantasy managers looking to throw darts at the position.