One of the key components to fantasy football success is making the correct lineup decisions. Here to help you make those decisions are our positional start ’em and sit ’em picks.
Fantasy decisions are more important than ever with playoff spots and playoff positioning on the line, so let’s look at our Week 10 start/sit plays for the RB position.
Which RBs Should You Start in Fantasy This Week?
James Conner, Arizona Cardinals (vs. ATL)
I’m going out on a bit of a limb here with James Conner. The Cardinals are expected to open his window to practice, but that doesn’t guarantee he returns on Sunday. We saw this play out with Kyler Murray, where the Cardinals designated him to return but used up all 21 days before activating him.
If Conner does return, though, I am willing to start him, even against a very challenging Falcons run defense.
MORE: Week 10 Start/Sit Options — TE | WR | QB
This one is about volume. Over the first three weeks of the season, Conner averaged 19.3 touches per game. In his absence, the Cardinals have tried out Emari Demercado, Keaontay Ingram, and Damien Williams, and they even resorted to actually putting Tony Jones Jr. on an NFL field. That’s when you know things have hit rock bottom.
Once Conner is back, I’m expecting him to handle all the work he can. Even if he’s inefficient, he should be able to volume his way to near-RB1 numbers, and he’ll reach RB1 numbers if he scores.
Plus, everything about the Cardinals’ offense is about to improve with Murray’s return. If you’ve been sitting on Conner, have no reservations about starting him in his first game back.
Tyler Allgeier, Atlanta Falcons (at ARI)
I capitulate. You win, Arthur. I am just a lowly fantasy football analyst. The fact that I would give the ball to Bijan Robinson near the goal line is irrelevant.
Tyler Allgeier has 10 carries inside the five this season. Robinson has just two. It’s abundantly clear that if the Falcons get close to scoring, it will be Allgeier who gets the chance to do so.
The Cardinals allow the third-most points per game (PPG) to running backs. This is finally a nice spot for the Falcons to be effective on the ground.
I’m not saying Robinson won’t be involved — he’s still outsnapping Allgeier. But the rookie has only carried the ball 11 times in his past two games. Playing more snaps doesn’t matter if you don’t touch the ball.
Last week, Allgeier out-carried Robinson 12-11. While Robinson is far more efficient with his carries, don’t let performance get in the way of proving a point about not needing to use the player your team spent the eighth overall pick on. Can you tell I’m bitter?
Nevertheless, Allgeier is touching the ball just as much as Robinson and has a monopoly on the high-leverage work, specifically at the goal line. With the Cardinals allowing 1.0 rushing touchdowns per game, I expect Allgeier to score, which will be enough to give him RB2 numbers.
Which RBs Should You Sit in Fantasy This Week?
Alexander Mattison, Minnesota Vikings (vs. NO)
It seems counterintuitive to recommend sitting Alexander Mattison the week after Cam Akers goes down for the season. We are back to Mattison seeing all the work he can handle.
The issue here is the matchup. While the volume will be there for Mattison, he hasn’t been able to do much with it.
The fifth-year RB is averaging 3.56 YPC on the season. He’s turned exactly 16 carries in each of his last two games into 31 and 44 yards, respectively. While I’m willing to start James Conner despite likely inefficiency because I’m expecting the passing game to work. That’s not the case for Mattison, who averages just two targets per game over his last three.
The New Orleans Saints allow just 16.1 PPG to the running back position, the fourth-fewest in the league. They are also quite adept at defending running backs in the receiving game, with just 12.6% of their total receiving yards allowed going to running backs. Even if Mattison does see increased targeting, it’s not likely to go well.
Given all the teams on bye and all the running backs injured, you may not be able to bench Mattison. But expectations should be tempered, for sure.
Zack Moss, Indianapolis Colts (at NE)
It might be over for Zack Moss. It was a helluva run for the once-discarded former Buffalo Bill.
Once again, I want to sing Moss’ praises. He went from a legitimately bad football player trending toward being out of the league by age 25 to one of the better running backs. He worked on his craft and improved significantly in a way few players can do during their careers. Kudos to him.
While Moss deserves a chance to start somewhere, that was never going to come at the expense of Jonathan Taylor. The Colts gave their franchise RB a boatload of money, and they want to cash in.
But this isn’t just about money. Taylor is one of the best backs in the league, and it was only a matter of time before talent won out.
Since returning in Week 5, Taylor’s snap share has increased in every game, topping out at 74% last week. I thought there was a chance this remained a 60/40 timeshare, but that doesn’t appear to be the case. Moss is being phased out.
Taylor saw 23 opportunities last week, while Moss saw seven and wasn’t targeted for the first time all season. After a season-low 21% snap share, I just can’t endorse continuing to trot Moss out there.
Trending Searches for RB Start/Sit
Did you know that we have a Start/Sit Optimizer here at Pro Football Network?! It’s completely free to use, and it allows you to enter in up to six players to find the best option to plug into your starting lineup!
It also allows us to see the most popular trending searches, which we’ve jotted down here to help provide some clarity!
Should You Start James Conner or Najee Harris?
At the time in which you’re reading this, we likely won’t have clarity on James Conner’s status. The Cardinals have until Saturday at 4 p.m. ET to activate him from IR, and they don’t have to do it for another two weeks if they don’t want to.
I am tentatively expecting Conner to play. If he does, I do think he’s startable, as explained above. However, I can’t say I’d go so far as to start him over Najee Harris.
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The Steelers RB1 is not nearly as good as his first-round NFL Draft pedigree would suggest he should be. But the pendulum has swung too far in the other direction over the past two years. Harris isn’t this awful running back who shouldn’t be in the NFL. He’s fine.
In fact, over the past three weeks, Harris has been quite good. He’s hit double-digits in all three and topped 15 fantasy points in two. That works here.
This week, Harris gets a Packers run defense that allows the ninth-most fantasy points to the position. Their 96 rushing yards allowed per game is the eighth-most in the league.
While Conner is a worthwhile start, even in his first game back, I would start Harris regardless.
Should You Start Zach Charbonnet or Tyler Allgeier?
The Start/Sit Optimizer has Tyler Allgeier projected for 8.0 fantasy points and Zach Charbonnet at 7.7 fantasy points. That is pretty close. I don’t think this will be close…in either direction.
Given the favorable matchup for Allgeier, combined with the goal-line role, I like him to score this week. A touchdown would almost certainly make him the correct choice over Charbonnet.
However, there is one scenario in which Charbonnet would be worth starting. That is if Kenneth Walker III is out.
Walker did not practice on Wednesday because of a chest issue. It’s not the first time he’s missed a practice this season, and Walker has yet to miss a game. I think it was precautionary, and I expect Walker to play, but if he doesn’t, Charbonnet would step into a lead back role against a mediocre Commanders run defense allowing the 16th-most fantasy points to running backs.
For now, assume Walker plays and that you’re starting Allgeier. But if Walker is surprisingly out, Charbonnet becomes a top-18 play this week.
Looking to make a trade in your fantasy league? Having trouble deciding who to start and who to sit? Setting DFS lineups? Check out PFN’s Free Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer and DFS Lineup Optimizer to help you make the right decision!