We are still five months away from fantasy football draft season. But with NFL free agency pretty much behind us, the 2024 landscape is starting to take shape. The NFL Draft will shake things up a bit more, but it never hurts to see where things stand at various points in the offseason. Here is an early look at the first four rounds of a 2024 mock draft for 1QB, PPR leagues.
2024 Fantasy Football Redraft Mock Draft
1.01) Christian McCaffrey, RB, San Francisco 49ers
Last year, Christian McCaffrey became the first running back to post multiple career overall RB1 seasons since Priest Holmes in 2003. Even with the lowest passing volume of his career, McCaffrey averaged 24.5 fantasy points per game and was the most valuable asset in fantasy football.
McCaffrey has logged 1,806 career touches. Injury is always a concern, but that goes for just about any player in the NFL. If you pick No. 1, don’t overthink it. Take McCaffrey.
1.02) Tyreek Hill, WR, Miami Dolphins
Tyreek Hill has finished as a WR1 every year since 2017. Yet, somehow, he’s been a value pick relative to ADP five times over that span.
In his two years with the Miami Dolphins, Hill has averaged 20.4 and 23.5 fantasy points per game. If not for a late-season ankle injury that slowed down his historic pace, Hill very well might have broken Calvin Johnson’s single-season receiving yardage record.
Hill will be 30 years old this season, though. I get having some minor trepidation. So, if you want to take this next guy ahead of him, I won’t fault you. But Hill should be ranked no lower than overall WR2.
1.03) CeeDee Lamb, WR, Dallas Cowboys
CeeDee Lamb has improved every year of his career. He went from having a solid WR3 rookie season to being a mid WR2 to mid WR1 to the best WR in fantasy. He quite literally cannot go any higher.
Lamb reached his final form last season, averaging 23.7 fantasy points per game. He finally saw an elite WR1 target share at 29.9% and led the league in receptions.
The Dallas Cowboys have one of the most prolific, pass-happy offenses in football. Dak Prescott is more than capable of sustaining Lamb’s elite WR1 value. We have every reason to believe Lamb is here to stay.
1.04) Breece Hall, RB, New York Jets
When push comes to shove in late August/early September, I don’t think the first round of fantasy drafts will be as WR-heavy as early Best Ball drafts would have fantasy managers believe.
Coming off a torn ACL, Breece Hall averaged 17.1 fantasy points per game, finishing as the overall RB6. He did this despite not being anywhere near 100% until the second half of the season. He did this despite having Zach Wilson as his quarterback for most of the season.
Regardless of who plays quarterback for the Jets, Hall is an elite RB1. Give him Aaron Rodgers, and he may score 15 touchdowns. Even if Hall’s efficiency doesn’t improve, the touchdowns alone would propel him into the top three. Hall is a legitimate threat to CMC as the overall RB1.
1.05) Bijan Robinson, RB, Atlanta Falcons
Last season, I had Bijan Robinson ranked as the overall RB3. Unfortunately, indefensible coaching decisions led to him handling just 47% of the Falcons’ running back rushes. Fortunately, those coaching decisions led to the termination of the guy who made them.
Now, Robinson has an offensive coordinator from the Sean McVay coaching tree in Zac Robinson and a quarterback capable of easily adding 10+ touchdowns to this offense in Kirk Cousins.
For as disappointing as Bijan Robinson was, he still totaled 1,463 yards and averaged 14.5 fantasy points per game. This year, I think we get 1,800 yards and 12+ touchdowns.
1.06) Ja’Marr Chase, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
After averaging 20.2 fantasy points per game in 2022, Ja’Marr Chase took a step back last season. His 16.4 fantasy points per game still had him inside the top 12, but we expect more from a top-three wide receiver.
Ironically, Chase proving not to be QB-proof is why he’s pulled ahead of the next guy.
Chase suffered from Joe Burrow being banged up for half the season and inactive for the other half. Jake Browning was better than expected, but he was never going to sustain Chase’s elite WR1 value.
Burrow is back healthy, and we have every reason to believe these two will pick things up right where they left off at the end of the 2022 season.
1.07) Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings
Yes, Justin Jefferson absolutely must be downgraded following Cousins’ departure. But a downgrade for Jefferson is merely going from a potential No. 1 overall pick to the middle part of the first round. He’s still Justin Jefferson.
Last season, Jefferson averaged 22.2 fantasy points per game with Cousins in contrast to 18.8 without him. Whether it’s Sam Darnold or a rookie, he’s going to be just fine. He just doesn’t have that 20-points-per-game upside he would’ve had with Cousins.
Fantasy managers should be glad to get Jefferson in this spot because the lowered cost allows you to pair him with a better player than you would otherwise be able to.
1.08) Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, Detroit Lions
Similar to Lamb, Amon-Ra St. Brown has improved each year of his career. Last season, St. Brown averaged 20.7 fantasy points per game, finishing as the overall WR4. He saw an elite 30.2% target share and averaged 2.7 yards per route run.
While it’s hard to envision St. Brown having a better year than he did in 2023, it’s also difficult to see how he fails. His range of outcomes feels very narrow, and that’s a good thing.
St. Brown is one of the safest picks in all of fantasy football. As long as he stays healthy, he should average between 17 and 21 fantasy points per game.
1.09) Puka Nacua, WR, Los Angeles Rams
I am all-in. Puka Nacua came out of nowhere to post the single-greatest rookie WR season in NFL history. For some, the fact that he’s an unathletic fifth-rounder who no one thought would be this good is reason for pause. I no longer care about his draft capital or his athleticism. Nacua proved definitively that he’s very good at football.
Matthew Stafford is the kingmaker. He is now the architect of the greatest WR season of all time, the second-greatest WR season of all time, and the greatest rookie WR season of all time. He also convinced the New York Giants to give Kenny Golladay a four-year, $72 million contract.
As long as Stafford is around, fantasy managers should buy into his WR1 status. Nacua has overtaken Cooper Kupp as that guy. He averaged 17.6 fantasy points per game last season. Dare I say that’s around his floor for 2024?
1.10) Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Detroit Lions
As a rookie, Jahmyr Gibbs spent the first month of his career as a pure backup to David Montgomery. On the season, he only touched the ball 234 times in 15 games. Yet, he still averaged 16.1 fantasy points per game, finishing as the overall RB8.
Is it possible Gibbs’ efficiency takes a step back after averaging 5.2 yards per carry and 5.4 yards per touch? Sure. But nothing about his situation is any different. The biggest change is he’s another year more experienced and will now enter the season as the 1A to Montgomery’s 1B.
Montgomery is still going to get plenty of work and be the primary goal-line back, but Gibbs is so explosive that a repeat of double-digit touchdowns is not only possible but probable. I would accept arguments for Gibbs as high as No. 5 overall.
1.11) Saquon Barkley, RB, Philadelphia Eagles
In the interest of full disclosure, it is, in fact, only March. As a result, I have not yet fully formed my opinion on Saquon Barkley for the 2024 season.
On the one hand, Barkley has never played in a good offense. His quarterbacks were a very-much-no-longer-good Eli Manning (who still managed to propel him to 24 fantasy points per game as a rookie) and a never-actually-good Daniel Jones (plus a medley of backups when Jones got hurt).
Now, Barkley gets to play in a prolific offense with Jalen Hurts at quarterback. He should be able to do much better than 3.9 yards per carry.
On the other hand, just because Barkley is there doesn’t mean the Eagles will suddenly give goal-line carries to their running back. His touchdown upside may actually be lower in Philly because of the Tush Push. He’s also unlikely to catch many passes with Hurts one of the best rushing QBs in the league.
Regardless, Barkley is still one of the most talented backs in the league playing in an elite offense. It’s hard to imagine him not being an RB1.
1.12) Josh Jacobs, RB, Green Bay Packers
I believe the kids would call this pick “spicy.” Allow me to posit that it won’t feel that way five months from now.
What exactly is there not to like about Josh Jacobs? Sure, he’s not some special talent and is nowhere near as gifted as Aaron Jones. But Jacobs can handle 350 touches — something Jones could not. What Jacobs loses in efficiency he will make up for with volume.
The Packers are an ascending offense and significantly better than any Raiders team Jacobs was on. Yet, Jacobs managed to average 19.3 fantasy points per game in 2022. I truly believe he can do that again this year.
2.01) Garrett Wilson, WR, New York Jets
It looks like we’re doing this again with Garrett Wilson. Now entering his third season, Wilson has never averaged more than 12.7 fantasy points per game or finished higher than WR30. Yet, we’re paying a borderline first-round price tag for what he could be.
The simple fact is Wilson has proven he’s an immense talent. Consecutive 1,000-yard seasons with Zach Wilson and friends at quarterback is mighty impressive.
Aaron Rodgers is 40 years old and recovering from a torn Achilles. But if he can stay healthy, it’s hard to imagine Garrett Wilson not finishing as a WR1. His ceiling is prime Davante Adams.
2.02) A.J. Brown, WR, Philadelphia Eagles
Fair warning: A.J. Brown is going to be the guy I am forced to rank high (because he’s clearly good at football) but will never actually draft.
After Brown averaged 17.6 fantasy points per game in 2022, my immediate thought was how he could ever do better than nearly 1,500 yards and 11 touchdowns. Where is the elite upside?
Now, 17.6 points per game is nothing to scoff at. But we’d at least like a path to 20 points per game. I never saw it with Brown and still don’t.
Brown goes here because he’s the clear WR1 for an offense we think will be very good. But Brown isn’t exactly treated like the true alphas. Whether it’s his fault or the coaching staff’s, the Eagles do not force-feed Brown the ball the same way the Dolphins do Hill or the Cowboys do Lamb.
Brown is a fine pick, but the downside is real. He averaged 12.3 fantasy points per game from Weeks 11-17 last season. Just be mindful of that before you push the button on Brown this early in fantasy drafts.
2.03) Kyren Williams, RB, Los Angeles Rams
When it’s all said and done, I think Kyren Williams ends up in the first round. He averaged 21.3 fantasy points per game last season. He was one of a very select few three-down backs.
When Sean McVay has his guy, he leans on him. It’s something he’s done his entire coaching career. Whether it was Todd Gurley, C.J. Anderson, Cam Akers, Darrell Henderson, or Sony Michel, McVay likes to use one back.
The concern with Williams is he’s slow, unathletic, and was a pretty bad prospect who did absolutely nothing as a rookie. His ascent came completely out of nowhere. That gives fantasy managers understandable trepidation about paying a premium pick to draft him.
Ultimately, I just don’t see why anything would be different this season. Unless Williams’ performance was truly a fluke and he flames out and loses his job, he should be the same guy this year. The Rams did not sign any running back of consequence in free agency. If they don’t draft a running back until Day 3, it’s wheels up for Williams and you can fully expect his name to appear earlier in the next mock.
2.04) Jonathan Taylor, RB, Indianapolis Colts
The last memory fantasy managers have of Jonathan Taylor is him totaling 196 yards and scoring 27.6 fantasy points in the final game of the 2023 season. That’s a friendly reminder of what peak JT can do.
Taylor will need rushing efficiency and a lot of touchdowns to return to being an elite RB1. The efficiency shouldn’t be a problem, but Anthony Richardson is liable to steal touchdowns. Richardson’s mobility also caps Taylor’s receiving upside, which wasn’t really there to begin with. There are concerns with Taylor’s profile.
Nevertheless, this is an extremely talented player in what should be a very good offense. He just needs to stay healthy, but we can say that about any player.
2.05) Derrick Henry, RB, Baltimore Ravens
The demise of Derrick Henry has been on its way for three years now. Much like Arya Stark in Game of Thrones, when asked, “What do we say to the God of Death?” Henry replies, “Not today.”
At 30 years old, Henry producing any sort of fantasy-relevant season would make him an outlier. But isn’t everything about Henry already an outlier?
Henry has certainly declined from his peak years of 2019-2021, but he’s still one of the best runners in the league. He will have absolutely no receiving upside in Baltimore, but Gus Edwards scored 13 touchdowns last season. Henry might score 20.
2.06) Drake London, WR, Atlanta Falcons
Yeah, they got me. I’m back in. All in. Drake London was massively underwhelming last season on the Falcons’ run-heavy offense with a backup QB as the starter. Now, he gets a Sean McVay disciple as an offensive coordinator and Cousins as a quarterback.
Throughout his entire career, Cousins has been capable of producing WR1s. I believe London is a mega talent. Now, he will be treated like the true WR1 he is. This will be the ultimate test of how much a situation matters. I buy that London has a top-five upside in 2024.
2.07) De’Von Achane, RB, Miami Dolphins
The 51.3-point game certainly helped, but De’Von Achane still averaged 17.3 fantasy points per game as a rookie. Raheem Mostert is still around, but he’s 32 years old. Achane will never be a high-volume guy, but health permitting, he will touch the ball more than 11.8 times per game this season.
Achane averaged 7.8 yards per carry as a rookie and led the NFL in percentage of carries to go for at least 15 yards. He also saw a respectable 11.3% target share.
Playing on one of the best offenses in football, Achane provides fantasy managers with elite weekly upside and is well worth his price tag.
2.08) Michael Pittman Jr., WR, Indianapolis Colts
Last season, Michael Pittman Jr. lost his starting quarterback a month into the season. Playing with Gardner Minshew II, he commanded a 30.5% target share and averaged 15.6 fantasy points per game. He did this despite scoring just four touchdowns.
Anyone concerned about Anthony Richardson being a plus for the Colts but a negative for Pittman’s fantasy value should look at what Pittman did in Richardson’s first career start in Week 1 last season: 11 targets, eight receptions, 97 yards, one touchdown, and 23.7 fantasy points.
I fully believe Richardson will make Pittman even better. And with a better offense overall, Pittman should score more touchdowns. A top-12 finish is very much in play.
2.09) Travis Etienne Jr., RB, Jacksonville Jaguars
I am once again at a crossroads with how to value Travis Etienne Jr.; he averaged 16.6 fantasy points per game last season but was grossly inefficient, averaging 3.8 yards per carry.
The vast majority of Etienne’s production came during a legendary four-week run from Week 5-8. Outside of that stretch, Etienne had just two games over 20 fantasy points and five games under 10 fantasy points.
Etienne benefitted from Tank Bigsby being an outright disaster, forcing the Jaguars to feed him massive volume. Head coach Doug Pederson has openly stated he would prefer not to have to do that again.
If Etienne even sees a 10% dip in volume, he will struggle to reproduce his overall RB7 finish. But there’s also no guarantee he will see a reduction in volume.
The point is that Etienne is a more volatile pick than he may appear. The upside is definitely there, but any earlier than this and he’s too risky for my blood.
2.10) Rachaad White, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Make no mistake about it, Rachaad White was once again one of the worst runners of the football in the league last season. It just didn’t matter.
Saddled with massive volume, White touched the ball 336 times and averaged 15.8 fantasy points per game. He was one of the best values in all of fantasy.
While White may have provided plenty of reasons for the Bucs to bring in someone better, they won the division and won a playoff game. White was a very effective receiver and led the league in catch rate at 91.4%. He’s far from a bad player.
The Bucs did not sign any running back in free agency. If they don’t draft a running back until Day 3, it will once again be game on for White in 2024. He’s the rare running back who catches passes and gets goal-line carries. If he maintains those two roles, I really don’t care how inefficient he is.
2.11) Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills
This may end up being a bit too late for Josh Allen. Once the sure things at WR and RB are off the board, fantasy managers are likely going to look down at the remaining players at those positions and see very little separating the next group of guys. Allen most definitely has separated himself from the rest of the QBs.
Allen has averaged at least 24.2 fantasy points per game each of the past four years. He’s finished as the overall QB1 in three of them. He is the surest of sure things, and in modern fantasy football, he provides a meaningful edge at the position. Allen is worth paying the premium to draft.
2.12) Chris Olave, WR, New Orleans Saints
Last year wasn’t quite the breakout many had hoped for with Chris Olave. He improved, but his 14.5 fantasy points per game felt like it should’ve been higher. Well, that’s because it should’ve.
Derek Carr missed Olave on multiple long touchdowns where Olave was wide open. If even two of those connect, we’re talking about Olave as a borderline WR1.
The Saints are severely lacking at wide receiver. Olave saw a healthy 25.2% target share last season, but that could push 30% this year. With a bit more volume and better touchdown luck, I am once again buying into Olave pushing for WR1 value.
2024 Redraft Mock | Rounds 3-4
3.01) DJ Moore, WR | Chicago Bears
3.02) Marvin Harrison Jr., WR | TBD
3.03) Davante Adams, WR | Las Vegas Raiders
3.04) Brandon Aiyuk, WR | San Francisco 49ers
3.05) Nico Collins, WR | Houston Texans
3.06) Sam LaPorta, TE | Detroit Lions
3.07) Rashee Rice, WR | Kansas City Chiefs
3.08) Mike Evans, WR | Tampa Bay Buccaneers
3.09) Tank Dell, WR | Houston Texans
3.10) Jalen Hurts, QB | Philadelphia Eagles
3.11) Malik Nabers, WR | TBD
3.12) Isiah Pacheco, RB | Kansas City Chiefs
4.01) Lamar Jackson, QB | Baltimore Ravens
4.02) Travis Kelce, TE | Kansas City Chiefs
4.03) DK Metcalf, WR | Seattle Seahawks
4.04) James Cook, RB | Buffalo Bills
4.05) Keenan Allen, WR | Los Angeles Chargers
4.06) Patrick Mahomes, QB | Kansas City Chiefs
4.07) Deebo Samuel, WR | San Francisco 49ers
4.08) Mark Andrews, TE | Baltimore Ravens
4.09) Jaylen Waddle, WR | Miami Dolphins
4.10) Kenneth Walker III, RB | Seattle Seahawks
4.11) James Cook, RB | Buffalo Bills
4.12) Alvin Kamara, RB | New Orleans Saints
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