In an era of platitudes and coachspeak, Tennessee Titans head coach Mike Vrabel is refreshingly candid. He did not play any games when it came to his team’s starting quarterback. It’s rookie Will Levis the rest of the way, with Ryan Tannehill as the backup. What does this mean for the fantasy football values of DeAndre Hopkins, Derrick Henry, and the rest of the Titans offense?
Fantasy Impact of Will Levis on DeAndre Hopkins, Derrick Henry, and Others
It’s been quite the interesting road to Levis being named starter. He opened the season as the third-string QB. When Tannehill got hurt in Week 6, it was Malik Willis who took over.
In Week 8, Levis started, but Willis still mixed in. Only in Week 9 did the Titans fully hand the keys over to Levis, with Willis as the backup.
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Levis’ debut was one of the best in NFL history. He only threw for 238 yards, but he tossed four touchdowns. The 28 points the Titans scored in Levis’ first career start were the most all season. It was clear he offered the offense a jolt that Tannehill, at this stage in his career, can no longer provide.
Levis was making big-time throws and pushing the ball downfield in a way Tannehill did not. It was abundantly clear after just one start that the Titans could not and would not turn back to Tannehill.
Ahead of Week 10, Vrabel made it official, declaring Levis the starter for the remainder of the season. It was the right move for a team that likely isn’t making the playoffs and thus has every reason to give its rookie QB an extended audition.
Hopkins’ Rest-of-Season Fantasy Value
So far, Hopkins has been the big winner of the switch to Levis. This is obviously a very small sample size, but Hopkins has averaged 22.6 fantasy points per game in Levis’ two starts. He averaged 10.8 PPG in six games with Tannehill.
Of course, this average was largely buoyed by Hopkins’ best game of the season and one of the best of his career. In Week 8, he caught just four of six targets but managed a whopping 128 yards and three touchdowns. It was just ridiculous efficiency. Hopkins’ 34.8 fantasy points were more than any other two games this season combined.
Going forward, I am definitely more bullish on Hopkins. For starters, he still looks mostly like himself. He’s not prime DHop, but the fall-off is minimal. He’s probably around 80-90% of his past self, which is great for a 31-year-old WR.
Additionally, four of the next five games for the Titans are against defenses that rank in the bottom half against the pass.
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While Hopkins has just two games with more than four receptions all season, he saw 11 targets against the Steelers last week. Due to the Titans’ lack of receiving weapons, I’m expecting Hopkins to push a 30% target share for the rest of the season.
With a logjam of WRs that would qualify as fantasy WR2s (way more than the 12 there technically only can be), Hopkins seems to be flying a bit under the radar. Look for Hopkins to have a stronger second half than first half.
Henry’s Rest-of-Season Fantasy Value
What Derrick Henry is doing at age 29 is nothing short of remarkable. In the modern era, running backs just don’t handle the workloads he gets really at all, let alone near age 30.
Henry’s workload is unlikely to change much. He is the party least impacted by the QB change. The biggest plus will be that if Levis makes the Titans better overall, they can sustain drives better, affording Henry more chances to touch the ball and create more scoring opportunities.
It’s not much to go on, but in his Henry’s two games with Levis, he has seen four targets in both. That could just be a coincidence, but it was the largest over a two-game span all season.
In six games with Tannehill, Henry caught 11 passes. He has seven receptions in just two games with Levis.
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If this is, indeed, deliberate, it would be a boon for Henry’s fantasy value going forward. Even a small uptick in designed screens could add 2-3 PPG to Henry’s average.
With so few running backs truly reliable these days, Henry’s outlook is much improved with Levis under center.
Fantasy Value of Other Titans Players
Beyond Hopkins and Henry, there’s not much fantasy managers need to concern themselves with on this team. The only other Titan that is decently rostered is backup RB Tyjae Spears.
The rookie satellite back has been seeing the field a ton, playing about 50% of the snaps. However, he’s only carrying the ball 4-5 times a game.
Spears’ 3.75 targets per game are nice, but his volume is nowhere near enough to be a fantasy starter. If anything, Levis making the offense better would result in a decreased role for Spears, as he plays more in negative game script. Spears is best viewed as a high-upside handcuff, which is what he’s been all season.
Beyond Spears, the Titans do not roster any other fantasy-relevant assets. Sophomore TE Chigoziem Okonkwo has completely failed to launch. His best fantasy effort is 8.3 points, and his role and usage did not change from Tannehill to Levis.
At WR, if the Titans didn’t have Hopkins, a strong case could be made that they have the worst WR room in the NFL. Treylon Burks, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, and Chris Moore are nothing more than rotational WR4/5s who have been forced to play above their talent level due to the lack of options in this passing game.
Since talent matters a ton at the WR position, as we’ve seen in Kansas City, there’s no amount of great Levis can be to turn these guys into worthwhile fantasy assets. All non-Hopkins pass catchers can remain on waivers.
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