Every March, we bank on an abundance of rumors surrounding the NFL. From releases to signings to trades to draft stock, there’s no shortage of speculation. Derrick Henry is among a series of veteran players rumored to being shopped around. Let’s examine some realistic trade partners for the Tennessee Titans and discuss Henry’s potential fantasy football value if a trade were to occur.
Derrick Henry Trade Rumors
We first learned about the possibility the Titans were shopping Henry from Bally Sports’ Mike Silver. He tweeted, “Among those players being shopped at the combine: Derrick Henry, DeAndre Hopkins, Jalen Ramsey.”
It’s important to note that teams gauge the value of players all the time. They even do this with players they have no intention of trading. It’s just part of being a general manager and doing your due diligence.
By no means does this report mean the Titans are actively trying to move Henry, nor does it mean that he’s likely to be traded. In fact, the overwhelmingly most likely outcome is Henry remaining in Tennessee.
But it never hurts to be prepared. So, what teams could trade for Henry?
The Dolphins and Bengals are the ‘Favorites’
Take this with plenty of grains of salt, but PointsBet sportsbook released odds on Henry’s next team. They listed the Miami Dolphins and Cincinnati Bengals with the shortest odds at +400 each.
I can’t see the Dolphins making a play for Henry. They already have one of the worst salary cap situations entering the 2023 season. Additionally, they, historically, never pay up for running backs. I just can’t see how Miami would be able to take on the $16 million cap hit that comes with Henry.
The Bengals, on the other hand, can certainly afford it…at least right now. They have the sixth-most cap space available. But it’s not that simple.
Cincinnati has massive extensions for Tee Higgins, Ja’Marr Chase, and Joe Burrow on the horizon. They also have Joe Mixon under contract. While there are rumors Mixon may be cut, that would cost them $5.5 million in dead cap. If Cincinnati adds Henry, that means they’d be spending over $21 million on the running back position. I just don’t see it.
Derrick Henry Could Work on the Eagles
The Philadelphia Eagles are about to let Miles Sanders walk, leaving them with a hole at RB1. Head coach Nick Sirianni reportedly likes Kenneth Gainwell in the third-down role, but he’s unlikely to see more work than that. In fact, Gainwell is the ideal complement to an early-down power back like Henry.
The Eagles have enough cap space to make Henry’s contract work for a season. They could defer money to future years if necessary. He’s also pretty much a one-year rental, as his current four-year deal expires after this season.
Henry on the Eagles feels like it would be tremendous for fantasy purposes. Philadelphia boasts one of the league’s best offenses, and a mobile quarterback in Jalen Hurts will only help open up lanes for Henry.
MORE: Derrick Henry Landing Spots
My concern, if there is one, would be the Eagles operate primarily out of shotgun. Henry is a power runner who benefits from the head of steam he gets when the quarterback is under center.
We saw a very much in-his-prime DeMarco Murray completely flop with the Eagles in 2015, largely because he wasn’t built to operate out of the shotgun. I’m not saying Henry would suffer the same fate. I’m merely pointing out that Philadelphia may not be the perfect fit many think to be.
With that said, Henry’s touchdown upside would be enormous. I can’t imagine going from a weak offense on a team unlikely to make the playoffs to an offense that just made the Super Bowl would be destructive to Henry’s fantasy value. What he loses in volume or efficiency can easily be made up in scoring.
Perhaps the Buccaneers Make a Play for Henry
I only bring this up because the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are a team in a weird spot right now. They can still try and make a run in a post-Tom Brady world with a veteran quarterback. But right now, I don’t think even they’re sure whether they want to do.
After cutting Leonard Fournette, the Bucs saved a little over $3 million against the cap. They have a lot more to go as they are currently $50 million over. Thinking about it more, it would take some masterful general managing to create the space for Henry’s cap hit, which is the second-largest at the position. But stranger things have happened.
I still don’t buy that the Bucs will move forward with Rachaad White as their clear RB1. He’ll be in the mix, but bringing in Henry would enable White to transition to a satellite back role, which suits him better. I don’t see him as a lead back.
MORE: Fantasy Impact of Leonard Fournette’s Release on Rachaad White
Henry’s receiving upside would be lowered on Tampa Bay, but they would feed Henry an all-you-can-eat buffet. Still, a move to Tampa would likely be detrimental to Henry’s fantasy value.
The Buccaneers’ offensive line generated just 1.5 yards before contact last season. Surprisingly, that’s 0.2 yards more than the Titans gave Henry.
But at another year older and moving to what very well may be a worse offense, Henry’s efficiency and TD potential would take a massive hit. He could easily fall out of the ranks of RB1s if the Bucs trade for him and don’t put enough pieces in place to actually make a run in 2023.
Alright, Let’s Talk About the Dream Landing Spots With the Bills and Chiefs
I decided to save the best for last. Both of these teams have a need at running back. They also both have elite quarterbacks with a surprisingly limited number of playmakers.
The Kansas City Chiefs have Travis Kelce and nothing else of any real quality behind him. The Buffalo Bills have Stefon Diggs and, well, same. Each of these teams could use another playmaker.
Running backs don’t exactly move the needle much, but playmakers are playmakers. And having Henry would certainly be better than not having him.
Much like the Eagles, these offenses are both primarily shotgun offenses. So, Henry could run into some of the same problems he would in Philly. However, I have confidence in Andy Reid and Sean McDermott to rework their offensive game plans to suit a guy like Henry. And much like in Philadelphia, the touchdown upside would be astronomical.
Henry would undoubtedly carry a top-six running back valuation heading into the 2023 season if he landed with either of these Super Bowl contenders.