It’s rare that the landscape of an entire position is impacted by free agency, but that’s where we find ourselves ahead of the 2024 NFL season.
With a handful of locked-in fantasy football starters likely on the move, let’s take a look at the state of the position and where some of these stars could land.
Potential Fantasy Impact of Free Agency on Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs, Derrick Henry, and Others
Saquon Barkley
Entering age-27 season
Efficiency has been an issue for Saquon Barkley of late (under 4.0 yards per carry in two of his past three seasons), but that, in my humble opinion, was more of a New York Giants problem than a Barkley one.
In 2023, the G-men boasted the 29th-ranked offense in yardage and 30th in scoring, marks that make it difficult for any fantasy player. Despite the ineptitude around him, Barkley has punched in 20 scores in his 30 games over the past two seasons, providing us with a taste of his potential should he join even an average supporting cast.
Rumors have been swirling about the Houston Texans as a landing spot and I love it. While their offensive line could also use some help, the potency of their pass game has the ability to act as a deodorant.
For me, the top tier of running back is a list of four (Christian McCaffrey, Bijan Robinson, Breece Hall, and Jahmyr Gibbs). After that, Barkley has as good a claim to lead Tier 2 as anyone.
At this point, we know what he is. Barkley is a home-run-hitting back ala Barry Sanders, one that will be limited on 14 straight carries before busting a game-breaking play.
READ MORE: Saquon Barkley Landing Spots — Fantasy Impact With Chargers, Texans, Eagles
That sort of player can be frustrating at times because of the low floor, but on an offense that can threaten defenses in a multitude of ways, those splash plays tend to happen more often due to the increased running lanes.
That top tier at the position is elite, and there are plenty of strong receivers who are viable foundational pieces for redraft teams in 2024. But it wouldn’t shock me if Barkley is pushing for first-round consideration come August.
Josh Jacobs
Entering age-26 season
One of the oddities you might come across in your preliminary research is that Josh Jacobs — on 197 receptions — has never scored via the catch. That’s not something that has me sweating, however, because Jacobs has grown as a pass catcher and will be bringing a three-down role with him wherever he lands.
READ MORE: Josh Jacobs Landing Spots — Fantasy Impact With the Ravens, Chargers, and Texans
Jacobs is unlikely to clear 2,000 yards as he did in 2022, but a return to his career norm (1,400 yards and 10 TDs) is a good bet, almost regardless of his landing spot. Of course, Jacobs’ upside could be capped should he replace Barkley in New York, but outside of that, he should be viewed as a rock-solid bet for elite usage and passable efficiency.
Like every other RB on this list, Jacobs’ value would spike if he signed with the Ravens or Cowboys. In that event, he’d move inside my top 10 at the position in 2024. Nevertheless, he’ll reside inside of my top 15 regardless, thanks to his ability to handle 18-20 touches per game.
Derrick Henry
Entering age-30 season
We’ve hit a danger zone with Derrick Henry when it comes to the age curve, but you wouldn’t really know it since he’s rushed for 10+ touchdowns in each of the past six seasons.
Henry’s training videos are taking the internet by storm as he prepares for a battle with Father Time, and maybe he can win. That said, I’m unlikely to work Hnery into my top 15 running backs, which means my share count is going to be limited, if not nonexistent.
READ MORE: Derrick Henry Landing Spots — Fantasy Impact With Cowboys, Ravens, Chargers
Of course, that could change should he join a backfield with Lamar Jackson, but outside of the perfect landing spot, Henry’s limited versatility is a concern. He’s never caught 35 passes in a season, meaning he’s nearly fully reliant on punching in touchdowns.
This is nothing new, but with each passing year, the whispers grow louder. And with a new playbook, the risk can’t help but be multiplied. In his final four games of 2023 in which he did not score, Henry was not a top 35 producer at the position.
That’s a floor that I’m not overly interested in absorbing as an early-round pick. Barring him signing with a top-10 offense, Henry will enter 2024 lower in my ranks than where he is commonly drafted.
Austin Ekeler
Entering age-29 season
After watching Austin Ekeler last season, the physical decline is impossible to deny. Ekeler averaged a career-low 3.5 yards per carry and hasn’t had a carry gain of more than 10 yards since Thanksgiving — those are simply facts.
Ekeler never looked quite right and fantasy managers drafting early are terrified (ADP: RB23). The drop in expectations, especially without a home, makes plenty of sense, but I’m tempted to be on the bullish side of the Ekeler debate for one reason. Motivation.
READ MORE: Austin Ekeler Landing Spots — Fantasy Impact With the Eagles, Bears, and Packers
His best days are clearly behind him, but a veteran like Ekeler comes with plenty of experience that can bring plenty to a contending team. It’s unlikely that an offense without much immediate upside (Las Vegas Raiders, for example) will roll the dice on an RB like this, and that takes some of the risk out of Ekeler’s current profile.
No, I don’t think Ekeler will rejoin the upper class of fantasy running backs the way he once did, but I’m not writing him off after one poor season. His versatile skill set elevates his floor to a usable level, even if the upside isn’t that of a star.
D’Andre Swift
Entering age-27 season
It took a week, but D’Andre Swift was finally unleashed for 229 carries (78 more than any season while with the Detroit Lions), and while his efficiency dipped some, no one was complaining with a final line of 1,236 scrimmage yards and eight scores.
Swift moving on from the Philadelphia Eagles, I’d argue, could prove to be a net positive. His lack of usage early in his career puts him in the physical prime of his NFL career, and his average of 5.3 yards per touch plays in any offense. In leaving the city of brotherly love, Swift’s usage inside the 10-yard line stands to spike, as Jalen Hurts is a green-zone offense unto himself.
READ MORE: D’Andre Swift Landing Spots — Fantasy Impact With the Giants, Ravens, and Raiders
That said, there is no guarantee that Swift will walk into that role or that he will be viewed as a true bell cow the way he was in 2023. Swift carries a wider range of outcomes based on landing spot than the RBs above, but his versatility makes him a candidate to sign with a well-above-average offense like the Los Angeles Chargers.
Swift’s current ADP is outside of the top 25 at the position, something that I think is more likely than not to change once he inks a new deal.
Tony Pollard
Entering age-27 season
The Dallas Cowboys opted against franchising Tony Pollard this offseason, but a return to America’s Team hasn’t yet been ruled out.
The fantasy community awaits with bated breath.
Pollard was disappointing by all metrics in 2023, given the expectations (I had him as a fringe first-round pick), but the process was sound, and should he return, I’ll be doubling down.
The idea was that Pollard had shown high-end ability and that his role came preloaded with a surplus of scoring opportunities. An early-season injury sapped some of the explosion that we saw in 2022.
READ MORE: Tony Pollard Landing Spots — Fantasy Impact With Chargers, Raiders, Texans
And what about the role? Well, the role was exactly what we projected, Pollard just produced 30.5% below league expectation from inside the opponent’s 15-yard line.
“Below expectation” in this sense refers to NFL league average production based on where his carry proximity to the end zone. We had dreams of Pollard being well above league average, but he left us with one of the more underwhelming goal-line seasons in recent memory.
With Dak Prescott leading an offense that is routinely in scoring position, I’m going to have interest in whoever is Dallas’ starting RB, especially if I get a “buy the dip” situation in terms of his ADP.
Gus Edwards
Entering age-29 season
Gus Edwards was more useful than even the most optimistic person could have expected entering last season as he finished fourth in rushing touchdowns (13) thanks to a featured role that saw him set a career-high in rush attempts by 54.
That’s all well and good for 2023, but we’re concerned about 2024. In that vein, I have no interest if he’s removed from the insolation of this Baltimore Ravens offense.
Each of Edwards’ scores from last season came inside the 10-yard line and 12 of them inside the 5. That’s a good skill to have and a very productive one when playing for the fourth-highest-scoring offense in the league that is led by the MVP, but it stands to dry up in a hurry with a change of address.
KEEP READING: Dynasty Rookie Rankings 2024 — Should You Target Marvin Harrison Jr., Brock Bowers, Roman Wilson, and Others?
And then what?
Edwards has 30 catches in 69 career games, a lack of versatility that limits his appeal to most ready-made offenses. He’s likely to carve out a role around the goal line no matter where he lands, but the volume of those opportunities is likely to regress in a major way, and that’ll sink his value in the process.