The 2022 fantasy football playoffs are here, and start/sit decisions are at their most critical. Let’s take a look at our WR start/sit Week 16 plays, which includes DJ Moore and Gabe Davis. Be sure to also check out our full Week 16 wide receiver rankings.
Week 16 Fantasy Football WR Start ’ems
DJ Moore, Carolina Panthers (vs. DET)
This is always a terrifying proposition — recommending fantasy managers to actually start DJ Moore. The Panthers’ WR1 hasn’t had a “good” outing since Week 5. Once a man known for his consistency, Moore has been anything but. He is the epitome of all or nothing.
Since Week 6, Moore hasn’t scored between 7.0 PPR fantasy points and 18.2 fantasy points. That’s right. Every week he’s been either below 7.0 or above 18.2.
Moore’s last three games have been a wild ride. He went 20.3, 0.6, and 18.3, respectively. Dare I actually predict consecutive boom weeks for Moore? I do.
Matchups just don’t get much better than the Lions. They are the ultimate pass-funnel defense, allowing the third-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. No team surrenders more passing yards per game to WRs than the Lions. Unsurprisingly, wide receivers account for 72.4% of yardage against the Lions, which is the second most in the league.
Moore’s volume hasn’t been there since Sam Darnold took over at quarterback. But he is scoring a bit more, with two touchdowns in his last three games. I think he finds the end zone again this week.
Marquise Goodwin, Seattle Seahawks (at KC)
This might be the chalk sleeper play of Week 16, but I don’t care. Marquise Goodwin makes too much sense this week.
The 32-year-old burner suddenly finds himself in a prominent role in the Seahawks’ offense, as he takes over as the WR2 opposite DK Metcalf in the wake of Tyler Lockett’s finger injury that will sideline him, at least for this week.
MORE: Midweek WR Injury Report Week 16
The game environment sets up very well for Goodwin. The Chiefs allow the 13th-most points per game to WRs and have been even worse as of late. Seattle has a consolidated offense, with the bulk of the touches going to Metcalf, their WR2, and their starting running back.
The Chiefs are favored, which will likely force the Seahawks to throw more. Furthermore, Kenneth Walker III is in jeopardy of missing this game. If he’s out, look for the Seahawks to lean on Geno Smith even more.
Everything points to Goodwin having what I really believe is an eight-target floor. That type of volume, combined with his still blazing speed, creates serious upside in the veteran pass catcher. Goodwin’s worth a start as a WR3.
Week 16 Fantasy Football WR Sit ’ems
Drake London, Atlanta Falcons (at BAL)
There’s zero doubt in my mind that in another universe, Drake London is contending for Offensive Rookie of the Year. He’s that talented. Unfortunately, his talents have largely gone to waste in the Falcons’ 1970s run-first offense.
Fortunately, over the past two weeks, London has seen a significant uptick in targets. From Weeks 9-12, London saw a total of 20 targets. In the past two weeks alone, he’s seen 23, posing fantasy-point totals of 15.5 and 12.0, respectively. Those numbers work.
With that said, London will need to get there on volume once again, because scoring is probably not in the cards.
MORE: Fantasy RB Start ’em Sit ’em Week 16
The Ravens have allowed the 10th-fewest touchdowns to wide receivers. While their overall ppg allowed to WRs is high, that’s still a product of early-season struggles. They have been a much stingier pass defense as of late.
With Lamar Jackson trending toward missing yet another game, the scoring environment is once again disappointing. We need the Falcons in game script where they have to throw to keep up with the opposing offense. That’s not happening against Tyler Huntley’s Ravens.
As a result, we were once again hoping for a volume-based floor game from London. If you want a piece of London action, your best bet would be to take his receiving yards lower on Underdog Fantasy. In the season-long fantasy semifinals, I would look elsewhere this week if you can.
Gabe Davis, Buffalo Bills (at CHI)
I wouldn’t even bother including Gabe Davis anymore if I didn’t see him consistently ranked as a top-36 wide receiver. I guess, technically, it’s fair, considering he’s the WR36 on the season. But who is really excited about 11.8 ppg?
Davis also isn’t really “averaging” anything. He’s posted four games over 16 fantasy points. He had one elite WR1 game with 32.1 in Week 5. He’s scored exactly 11.8 once. Every other game — as in all eight of them — have been in single digits. That includes his last four.
The Bears are an average matchup, allowing the 15th-fewest ppg to wide receivers. But this isn’t about the matchup — it’s about the player. Davis just isn’t good enough to matter outside of a random long touchdown. His 16.9% target share is outside the top 50.
There’s also the matter of the weather. This game is expected to be frigid, with the on-field temperature below zero. There’s also the possibility of snow.
In games like this, you can’t do anything but start guys like Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs. But when it comes to fringe WR4s like Davis, he can be left on the bench.