We are now nearing the end of August. The NFL season is right around the corner. By the time you’re reading this, the preseason is in its final week, or possibly over altogether. That means we’re entering the heart of fantasy football draft season.
As important as it is to find those players who will outperform their ADPs, it’s equally important to avoid the players who finish below them. With that in mind, here are my top WR busts for the 2024 fantasy season.
Fantasy Football WR Busts
The term “bust” feels a bit harsh. It’s something about the word. Really all it means is a player we think will finish significantly lower than his ADP suggests he should. Here are a few wide receivers fantasy managers should avoid at their ADPs in 2024 fantasy drafts.
Davante Adams, Las Vegas Raiders (ADP: WR10)
Before you jump through the computer screen to attack me, please know two things.
First, I don’t think Davante Adams is done. Is he as good as he was in Green Bay? No. But is he 2021 Allen Robinson? Also no.
Second, if you draft Adams, you’re not going to lose your league because of it. I don’t think Adams’ floor is the aforementioned 2021 A-Rob. Based on his name appearing on this, I obviously think he will underperform relative to his ADP.
However, he won’t be a total landmine. The primary reason for fading Adams is the Raiders’ offense. At the same time, let’s not pretend he hasn’t shown signs of decline.
Success against man coverage is very predictive of a player’s ability. We use it with young players who have yet to really ascend as signs of an imminent breakout. We can also use it to see how older players are aging.
Adams’ decline does appear to be gradual. His 2023 open score wasn’t “bad” — it just wasn’t at the level we expect from one of the best wide receivers of all time. Even if we assume further decline this season, it’s unlikely to be precipitous.
So, we have a player who is still good, but not super elite anymore. Adams went from Aaron Rodgers to Derek Carr to Jimmy Garoppolo to now Gardner Minshew.
Do we expect the Raiders to have a good offense this year?
Last season, Adams was the only wide receiver who finished top 24 in fantasy points per game that came from an offense that ranked bottom 10 in scoring. Now another year older, to bank on Adams being the sole outlier again in the second round if the Raiders don’t improve as a team is not a bet I want to make.
Stefon Diggs, Houston Texans (ADP: WR18)
Easily one of the most polarizing players in fantasy this season, Stefon Diggs is almost certainly not going to be the WR18.
Either I’m correct, he’s a mega bust, and finishes well below where he’s being drafted, or I’m wrong, he’s still got it, and is a WR1. I really don’t see anything in between as likely.
With Diggs, it comes down to what you attribute as the reason for his objectively disastrous second half to the 2023 season. From Week 10 through the end of the season, he averaged 9.8 fantasy points per game.
If fantasy managers could’ve seen the future after Week 9, forget about merely benching him, he would’ve been dropped universally. Now, we’re supposed to just act like that didn’t happen and draft Diggs as a mid-WR2?
It’s not like his situation got better. Sure, C.J. Stroud is awesome, but in Buffalo, Diggs was competing with no one for targets. Now, he’s competing with Nico Collins and Tank Dell, two receivers who were better than him last season.
Diggs is 30 years old. After averaging 2.87 yards per route run in 2022 (third in the league), that number fell to 2.03 (31st). His 7.4 yards per target was a whopping two-yard decline from the previous year, taking him from 17th to 62nd.
Diggs’ supporters point to the shift in offensive philosophy after Joe Brady took over for Ken Dorsey as offensive coordinator. From Weeks 1-9, the Bills had a 59% neutral game script pass rate. From Week 10 onward, it was a paltry 47%, the second-lowest mark in the league.
That obviously didn’t help, but it doesn’t explain why when Buffalo did call passing plays, they weren’t to Diggs. From Week 10 on, Khalil Shakir totaled 387 receiving yards, while Diggs had just 349.
There’s really no way to spin this as a positive for Diggs. I’ve taken the position that he’s no longer an elite player. He will still have his games, though.
As Collins and Dell put pressure on defenses, there will be games where Stroud peppers Diggs with underneath targets, making him a glorified Jarvis Landry. I have Diggs ranked as my WR28 and, as you might imagine, will be drafting him nowhere.
George Pickens, Pittsburgh Steelers (ADP: WR28)
A WR28 price tag isn’t unreasonable for an NFL team’s WR1. I just struggle to see the upside with George Pickens.
Well, I shouldn’t say I struggle to see it — I do see it.
Pickens is a talented player. We’ve seen him post mega-elite games, such as his 35.5-point effort in Week 16 last season. He’s capable, but so was Drake London, a player who I think is more talented than Pickens.
London finished outside the top 40 wide receivers in his two seasons with the Atlanta Falcons, playing in an Arthur Smith offense. Yes, Russell Wilson and Justin Fields are much better than Desmond Ridder, but the concerns are the same. Where is the volume coming from?
Pickens will benefit from Diontae Johnson being gone. He’s the clear WR1 with minimal target competition. But, again, so was London, and Smith couldn’t figure out how to use him. I fear Pickens is destined for a similar fate. As my WR38, I’m out on Pickens this season.
