Nailing those late-round fantasy football values is getting harder and harder. Training camps are getting more and more coverage, and videos are far and wide across the internet.
So what is the best way to dig and find potential late-round gems? Let’s start trying to find the best sleeper WRs in fantasy football right here.
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Which WRs Should You Target in 2023?
To truly find fantasy values to hit from the late rounds of your drafts, at this point, the best bet is targeting situations where the target distribution is most unknown. This means teams with new WR rooms and limited data to project roles. From here, if you pick the correct names, you might have found a steady weekly player or two for your lineups!
For this article, we’ll be defining a sleeper as a player being drafted outside of FootballGuys‘ consensus top 120 players by ADP. All these players are likely to be going as double-digit round picks in most leagues and are simply bench stashes to start your year. Hopefully, by the end, one or two can perform well enough to crack lineups when needed.
Rashod Bateman, Baltimore Ravens
Let’s be clear, the Ravens’ likely top target is Mark Andrews. However, the passing pie is likely to grow in 2023.
In 2022, Baltimore threw the ball 488 times in 17 games. In 2019, Todd Monken’s last NFL season, the Cleveland Browns threw 539 passes in 16 games. The two seasons prior in Tampa Bay saw 615 passes on average in 16 games.
Movement seems to indicate he’s not quite to 100% but is close.
Good to see high impact deceleration (short HARD steps prior to COD) but doesn’t go 100% into pushing off of his Left foot to burst upfield like he’s moved in the past.
pic.twitter.com/QgiIyl7liu— Jeff Mueller, PT, DPT (@jmthrivept) August 24, 2023
This means that even if Andrews continues to see 29% of targets if Rashod Bateman can continue seeing a target of around 18% of the Ravens’ passes, he’s likely to surpass 100 targets. Bateman actually drew targets on around 25% of his routes, so if he can be the alpha WR (Odell Beckham Jr. is off multiple knee injuries, and Zay Flowers is likely their slot guy), then he could easily push toward 23% target share, giving him over 130 targets.
Nico Collins, Houston Texans
Nico Collins has a clear path to top-target earner in Houston, who, despite starting a rookie QB, still offers a reasonable path to relevance. The Texans have one of the lowest projected win totals in the NFL, meaning they’re likely to trail a lot. This should equate to more pass volume as well as some potential for garbage-time production (it all counts for fantasy).
MORE: 2023 Fantasy Football WR Rankings
Collins is starting across from Robert Woods and likely Noah Brown as the slot wide receiver. Woods struggled in 2022, and Brown doesn’t earn targets. Even if rookie sensation Tank Dell earns himself a role, how often can you target such a small player?
Collins has shown he can handle a full-time role. This preseason, he ran 90% of routes with C.J. Stroud and saw a 30% target share and 34% of Stroud’s air yards.
Romeo Doubs, Green Bay Packers
This might be a little controversial since the common refrain is that Romeo Doubs‘ teammate Christian Watson is the top target. Watson goes Round 5, but Doubs falls to Round 12. Doubs showed in the Packers’ preseason that he’s a full-time player, running a route on all 19 of Jordan Love’s dropbacks before missing Week 3.
All camp reports said that there’s a clear connection between Doubs and Love. With Watson posting a 2022 outlier TD total to boost his draft stock, taking the cheaper option seems a nice shot at serious upside.
Marvin Mims Jr., Denver Broncos
Marvin Mims Jr. is a popular late riser and value. Why? It started with the Tim Patrick injury. That was followed up by Mims playing a role as a clear top-three WR in the preseason. Now, Jerry Jeudy injured his hamstring, and while the severity is unknown, those injuries can linger.
Enter Mims, likely playing a full-time role as a top-two option across from Courtland Sutton. Mims, while just a rookie, was a top deep-ball WR in his class. He’s now paired with a QB who thrives throwing downfield. Mims is going as WR74 but can carve out a clear role early in 2023. If Sean Payton can fix the Broncos, Mims likely pays off that ADP easily.
Van Jefferson, Los Angeles Rams
Van Jefferson has officially reached post-hype sleeper status, going as WR73 in ADP. This is despite being a top-two wide receiver in Los Angeles.
Last year’s failure to launch was partly due to poor circumstances. Jefferson suffered an injury that cost him significant time in camp and the early season. He followed that up by losing QB Matthew Stafford later in the year.
MORE: Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Busts 2023
With Stafford back and both he and Jefferson healthy, the latter is poised to easily eclipse his ADP. As a second-year player, Jefferson put up 800 yards and six TDs on just 89 targets.
That total almost has to grow if Stafford hits 600 attempts again, even if Cooper Kupp gets 200 targets. One hundred thirty-five targets with comparable efficiency puts him around 1,200 yards and nine TDs, or roughly 2022 WR10 Amari Cooper. While unlikely to provide that level of production, at WR73, the upside is hard to pass up.