Sunday can be a blur. 14 games thrown at us, often without time to digest what just happened or how it impacts our fantasy football teams. Success is about reacting to information with proactive, forward-thinking decision-making. So what do we do with the information in front of us? Let’s briefly examine each Sunday game from Week 4 to find out.
Week 4 fantasy football takeaways | Early slate
The following is a rundown of each Week 4 Sunday game, highlighting the most notable fantasy storylines you should be thinking about as you plan waiver adds and trade negotiations.
Falcons vs. Washington
When Atlanta needs 2 yards on 1st-and-10, they look to Mike Davis. When they need ground yardage any other time, they’re better off going to Cordarrelle Patterson or even Wayne Gallman. Despite the late-game touchdown, Davis has possibly one game left to prove he deserves 10+ touches a game. In other words, his fantasy value is hanging by a thread.
Meanwhile, this game featured an impressive comeback by Washington, led by its two biggest stars — Antonio Gibson and Terry McLaurin. Logan Thomas’ injury should be monitored closely. And interestingly, J.D. McKissic earned a healthy 12 touches — including a critically important score. Even with the much-heralded Curtis Samuel returning, McKissic remains a terrific situational streamer.
Bills vs. Texans
These two teams last met in a thrilling 2020 playoff game. But yesterday’s rematch was over at the coin toss.
For Buffalo, Zack Moss has been a fantasy difference-maker — from inactive Week 1 to three consecutive impressive performances. Since touchdowns have been a major differentiator, I’d advise selling high, as 4 scores in three weeks is not a sustainable clip.
For Houston, Davis Mills and Co. never had a chance. Brandin Cooks, though, continues to turn dirt into gold, or at least bronze. Thanks to strong volume, he’ll keep serving as a high-floor WR3+.
Bears vs. Lions
Darnell Mooney is the No. 2 wideout Chicago fans have been wishing for. However, it’s possible he’s no longer the No. 2 wideout.
While Allen Robinson scuffled with only 3 targets on Sunday, Mooney is staking a claim to the lead role. More importantly, though, all eyes are on David Montgomery’s knee injury. Damien Williams has plenty of bell-cow experience and could be the biggest waiver add this week.
Detroit’s offense continues to regress, though Chicago’s defense deserves some credit. While Jared Goff scraped together a strong fantasy performance, Detroit deploys too many middling receivers to be able to rely on just one. Also, the Lions seemingly had two RB1s heading into this week — but savvy fantasy managers knew that was a mirage. If it’s not too late to sell high on Jamaal Williams, this is as good a time as any.
Cowboys vs. Panthers
Zeke Elliott’s and Amari Cooper’s seasons are going in opposite directions. Week 1 went to Cooper, but ever since, he’s been unstartable. Meanwhile, Elliott is making a play for fantasy’s RB2. Perhaps Cooper’s hamstring injury is the culprit.
While Chuba Hubbard was quite adequate in his first start with Christian McCaffrey sidelined, his relatively muted numbers are a reminder that rookies thrust into starting roles midseason are not often the best bets in fantasy — at least not right away.
Dolphins vs. Colts
Starting in a better offense, Myles Gaskin could be a top-20 RB. Heading into yesterday, his 5.1 yards per carry and 4 receptions per game could have been viewed as hallmarks of a weekly fantasy starter. But he hasn’t gotten enough touches, and the goal-line looks aren’t happening.
Yesterday was a major regression point, with Malcolm Brown out-touching Gaskin 9-2. This backfield will be a fantasy mess unless an injury forces one of them into 15-plus-touch territory.
For Indy, Jonathan Taylor got going for the first time since the opening week. More interestingly, Nyheim Hines earned only 4 touches after an early-game fumble, while the team featured much more of Marlon Mack (11 touches). It’s possible this usage was due — at least, in part — to reports Indy is trying to trade the veteran back. If they can’t, stay tuned to see if he’ll continue to eat into Hines’ supplementary workload.
Vikings vs. Browns
This past summer, I shared research showing that in the history of the NFL, 73% of RBs with 350+ touches in a season regress the following season. In fact, while 350-plus-touch RBs have collectively averaged 308.7 fantasy points, they average only 238.2 points the following season — a 23% drop.
This is why I warned fantasy managers this summer to avoid Dalvin Cook (356 touches in 2020) at his early first-round value. Alexander Mattison is once again a difference-making handcuff.
For Cleveland, it was an impressive road victory. A reader asked me yesterday morning whether he should start Baker Mayfield. I responded that I couldn’t remember the last time I recommended starting Mayfield. He is on pace for 8.5 pass TDs and 8.5 interceptions this year.
Surely, those numbers will go up. But let’s not kid ourselves — Mayfield has settled into a game-manager role. Backed by a strong defense and elite backfield duo, that’s not likely to change.
Saints vs. Giants
Tony Jones Jr. was carted off with an ankle injury. If it’s serious, it could open the door for someone to handle carries behind Alvin Kamara. That role likely won’t go to journeymen Ty Montgomery or Dwayne Washington, but to the ever-versatile Taysom Hill, who yesterday managed 2 rushing scores on 6 carries for 28 yards. If Jones misses a lot of time, Hill could be the biggest beneficiary. Also, yesterday was the first time in Kamara’s 64-game NFL career that he wasn’t targeted.
What a comeback for the Giants. Saquon Barkley looked his most Saquon Barkley-like since 2018, while Kenny Golladay looked like $72 million. We can see glimpses of a team that can compete in the NFC East. Even when Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton return, expect Barkley and Golladay to be the biggest fantasy contributors most weeks. Patient fantasy managers are finally being rewarded.
Jets vs. Titans
This is why they play the games. On paper, even without their top two receivers, Tennessee should have rolled over New York. Right after Zach Wilson tossed his eighth pick of the season, I tweeted to Jet fans that he deserves their patience. After all, Terry Bradshaw didn’t have more pass TDs than interceptions in a season until Year 6.
Wilson inherited a deeply subpar team in a demanding football market. The comeback he led was nothing short of impressive, and with Jamison Crowder finally healthy, we might look back on this game as the day Wilson turned a corner and earned some dynasty appreciation.
Meanwhile, Tennessee’s running backs put on a show, but it wasn’t enough in this depleted offense. Derrick Henry had 35 touches and is on pace for 540. (Yes, 540 touches; we’ll revisit this later this season, I’m sure.) More notably, backup Jeremy McNichols had 9 touches for 85 yards, most of which came through the air. McNichols should keep this valuable handcuff role even when Darrynton Evans returns.
Eagles vs. Chiefs
Is Miles Sanders droppable? In shallow leagues, I wouldn’t begrudge anyone for looking elsewhere. He is both talented and underutilized, which is a strange combination and a frustrating one for fantasy managers.
Tyreek Hill reminded everyone why he was a consensus top-three WR draft pick. Just as notably, Clyde Edwards-Helaire has transformed since fumbling early last week. Darrel Williams remains a must-roster handcuff just in case.
Week 4 fantasy football takeaways | Late-afternoon games
What are the most important Week 4 fantasy football takeaways from yesterday’s late-afternoon games?
Rams vs. Cardinals
Robert Woods finally got going (or at least, just enough), while Darrell Henderson dominated the backfield in his return. Meanwhile, Sony Michel earned only 3 looks and lost a fumble. Michel remains a low-ceiling backup with TD-dependent upside if Henderson gets hurt again.
Meanwhile, James Conner now has 4 touchdowns in his last two games, which has to be tough for those who invested in the still-TD-less Chase Edmonds.
49ers vs. Seahawks
Jimmy Garoppolo’s injury opened the door for Trey Lance, who — unlike fellow high-upside rookie Justin Fields last week — seized the opportunity with a pair of touchdown throws and some nice running. I alluded to Lance this summer as the next Lamar Jackson if he ever got the opportunity. That might have been hyperbole. But he has the offensive weapons to dominate if Garoppolo is forced to sit next week — and possibly longer if Lance earns it.
For Seattle, managers expected a lot more from Chris Carson. His performance thus far has been inexplicable, except when you consider Carson has missed time in each of his NFL seasons. Head coach Pete Carroll has enough backfield talent to keep Carson fresh for the long season ahead. Alex Collins should be rostered in nearly every league.
Broncos vs. Ravens
If Teddy Bridgewater’s head injury proves serious, Denver’s offense will hinge on the previously underwhelming Drew Lock. When Jerry Jeudy eventually returns, the Broncos will have six capable mouths to feed, which might be two or three too many given Lock’s skill set.
As for Baltimore, the Ty’Son Williams Era did not last long. Instead, the fourth Latavius Murray Era begins. However, I doubt it lasts beyond the team’s Week 8 bye.
Packers vs. Steelers
Given what Aaron Jones has done the past two weeks, fantasy managers can excuse him for merely playing “well” instead of “amazing.” But keep a close eye on his 3.7 yards per carry, which is about 1.5 yards below his career average entering the season. AJ Dillon isn’t going anywhere and remains an elite handcuff.
Najee Harris is on pace for 111 receptions, which would place him just shy of Christian McCaffrey’s all-time record of 116. After a slow start, Harris has found his groove alongside an aged QB desperate for dump-off targets.
Sunday Night Football
What fantasy nuggets are most valuable after Tom Brady’s return to Foxborough?
Patriots vs. Buccaneers
Damien Harris had 23 carries in Week 1 and 16 in Week 2. But over New England’s last two games, he’s had six and four, respectively. Facing the Texans and Jets in two of the next three weeks, Harris needs to get right soon or he could lose his lead-back role by midseason –if he hasn’t already.
And in a game that had all the build-up and drama one could hope for, a little-appreciated stat could be a difference-maker for fantasy managers: Cameron Brate out-targeted O.J. Howard 6-1. With Rob Gronkowski potentially facing a multi-week absence, Brate could eke out streaming value next week against a Miami team that couldn’t stop Mo Alie-Cox.