Although NFL free agency doesn’t technically kick off until Wednesday, several fantasy-relevant players were impacted by agreements during the legal tampering period. With guys like Tony Pollard, Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs, and D’Andre Swift all changing teams, what players’ fantasy football stocks were most impacted for 2024?
Who Saw Their Fantasy Football Value Rise on Day 1?
Drake London and Kyle Pitts Were the Biggest Winners
For a more in-depth analysis, you can check out my detailed breakdown on Kirk Cousins joining the Atlanta Falcons. But suffice it to say, by far, the most impactful move was Cousins to Atlanta.
A quarterback is always going to move the needle more than any one position, as he affects everyone on the offense.
Drake London and Kyle Pitts both severely underwhelmed relative to their talent profiles over the past two seasons. London finished outside the top 36 receivers both years, while Pitts was completely unstartable for almost the entirety of the 2023 season. Now, London has legitimate WR1 upside, while Pitts has overall TE1 upside.
Both players are going to be highly sought-after in fantasy drafts, but the sting of 2023 is not going to completely wash away. Unless London gets into the second round, he will be a player to target.
Zamir White Is Poised To Be the RB1 in Las Vegas
Oftentimes, the fantasy football winners are guys who aren’t involved in the transactions at all. No one fits that bill so far better than Las Vegas Raiders RB Zamir White.
Fantasy managers got a glimpse of White’s potential over the final month of last season when Jacobs didn’t play due to injury. White operated as the lead back, averaging 21 carries a game. He went over 100 total yards in three of his four games as a starter and scored at least 13.1 fantasy points in all four contests.
It’s certainly possible, if not likely, for the Raiders to sign or draft another running back. However, that running back may very well just be a role player/roster depth.
White excelled with interim head coach Antonio Pierce last season. Pierce is now the official head coach, no more “interim.” He’s the guy who decided White should be the guy, and White rewarded his coach’s belief in him with quality on-field performances.
White’s fantasy stock is undoubtedly going to rise after free agency and the NFL Draft if the Raiders don’t add anyone of consequence, but I’m not sure it will increase by enough. White is shaping up to be a desirable fantasy asset for the 2024 season.
Josh Jacobs Is Now the Lead Back on a Better Offense
When Jacobs agreed to terms with the Green Bay Packers, the initial reaction from the entire football world was one of confusion. The Packers already had a running back, and a very good one, at that, in Aaron Jones.
In my instant reaction article, I assumed the Packers intended to cut Jones. Otherwise, the signing just made no sense. Sure enough, about an hour after the Jacobs deal was announced, the Packers released Jones.
For a brief moment, there might have been concern that Jacobs was going to be mired in a committee. In which case, he would’ve found himself in the second section of this article. Fortunately, that is not the case.
Now, Jacobs is poised to have a three-down role in an ascending offense. This is a guy just two years removed from an overall RB3 finish. If the Packers continue to improve, Jacobs has legitimate 15-touchdown upside and should be viewed as a clear RB1 in fantasy.
Gardner Minshew Gives Davante Adams Some Hope
By no means am I suggesting Gardner Minshew is some franchise savior. The Las Vegas Raiders are still not making the playoffs. But for fantasy football, Minshew as the Raiders’ starting QB would be a massive improvement for Davante Adams.
Minshew won’t be as good for Adams as Aaron Rodgers or even Derek Carr. However, we saw what Minshew was able to do for Michael Pittman Jr. last season. He caught 109 passes for 1,152 yards and four touchdowns, averaging 15.6 fantasy points per game. Most importantly, Pittman saw a 30.5% target share.
Currently, the rhetoric from Vegas is that Minshew will “compete” with Aidan O’Connell for the starting job. We should not rule out the Raiders trading for Justin Fields or drafting a quarterback.
However, if it ends up being a Minshew-O’Connell QB room, there’s not going to be a competition — Minshew is going to start. If that happens, Adams has a real shot to return to the ranks of the WR1.
Which Players’ Fantasy Football Stock Fell on Day 1?
It Was a Bad Day for Tyjae Spears Enthusiasts
When Derrick Henry said his goodbyes to Titans country, the stage was set for Tyjae Spears to take over as the RB1. Spears flashed upside as a rookie, particularly in the receiving game. He was never going to be a three-down back, but Spears, on the right side of a committee, had a high RB2 upside. Now, that is very much in doubt.
Pollard did not agree to join the Tennessee Titans to be a backup. The best-case scenario for Spears is now a 50/50 timeshare with Pollard. More likely, it will be a committee that skews slightly in Pollard’s favor.
MORE: Tony Pollard Fantasy Reaction
Spears is still going to be fantasy-relevant, but it’s difficult to predict exactly how. For more detail on the challenges a Spears/Pollard backfield presents, check out my full analysis above.
In summation, Spears and Pollard are similar players. They both operate best as a satellite back plus — the role Pollard played alongside Ezekiel Elliott in 2022. Neither profiles as a prolific between-the-tackles runner. Yet, someone has to do that job.
Regardless of what Spears’ role ends up being, his volume will be significantly less now than it would’ve been had the Titans not signed Pollard (or any back of significance).
Where the Falcons Gained, the Minnesota Vikings Lost
As the captain of the London and Bijan Robinson train, I am over the moon with Cousins going to Atlanta. As an equally big fan of Jordan Addison and Justin Jefferson, I feel terrible for the Vikings.
We don’t know who will play quarterback for the Vikings this season. But we do know whoever it is will be a downgrade from Cousins.
The remaining options are Justin Fields, Sam Darnold, or a rookie (potentially J.J. McCarthy). And these are the best options remaining. The worst-case scenario is what we saw last season with the medley of Joshua Dobbs, Nick Mullens, and Jaren Hall at quarterback.
CONTINUE READING: Free Agency Tracker
Jefferson is such an elite talent that he will be fine with any quarterback. He probably needs a good one to have overall WR1 upside. But he shouldn’t fall much lower than the WR6-8 range, even if the Vikings end up with bottom-of-the-barrel QB play.
The bigger concern is Addison. He was trending to be a league-winner while Cousins was healthy but struggled last season after Cousins went down. He averaged 15.8 fantasy points per game with Cousins but only 10.8 points per game without him.
Addison should have a higher floor as he naturally improves in his sophomore season, but the high WR2 upside is probably not there anymore. Addison’s price in fantasy drafts will have to fall considerably for him to be worth selecting.
It’s Probably Not Going To Happen for Roschon Johnson
Swift isn’t exactly the pinnacle of health. For that reason, I don’t want to completely close the book on Roschon Johnson. But it’s certainly not a great look that the Chicago Bears pushed both Khalil Herbert and D’Onta Foreman over Johnson last season and then spent $24 million to bring in Swift.
Given what the Bears paid Swift, there’s zero doubt he’s going to be the starter. The question is whether it’s Johnson or Herbert who has the RB2 role. In theory, the answer should easily be Johnson. The fact that it’s not is already an indictment on the sophomore running back.
KEEP READING: Where Does Bears RB D’Andre Swift Rank?
Johnson was solid as a rookie, touching the ball 115 times for a total of 561 yards. His 4.9 yards per touch was good for 20th in the league. Yet, he could never really earn more than 40-50% snap share. Now, with Swift in town for the next three years, it would take at least one injury for him to even get a chance.
