Fantasy football is a numbers game. As complicated as we make it (myself included), production on the field is what dictates value. As we tie a bow on the 2023 fantasy season, the thought process naturally shifts to 2024.
Bookmark this page, these numbers aren’t going to change between now and your 2024 draft. This is your one-stop shop for a note that can help justify your selecting (or fading) of a certain player — notes that can help you grasp what we saw in 2023 and point to what could happen in 2024.
Fantasy Football Stats — Quarterbacks
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- Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills: He has posted four straight seasons with over 4,000 passing yards, 400 rushing yards, and 40 total touchdowns. The mistakes are a part of what you get, but in our game, the big plays are far more helpful than the turnovers are detrimental.
- Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles: Philadelphia’s star QB has three straight seasons with 10+ rushing touchdowns, something Hall of Fame RB Marshall Faulk’s resume doesn’t have on it.
- Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens: In his first season under new offensive coordinator Todd Monken, Jackson set a career-high in completion percentage (67.2%) and had as many rushing scores as he had in the two years prior combined.
- Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys: He’s totaled at least 33 total TDs in each of his past three healthy seasons (13+ games played) and has completed over 68% of his passes in each of the past two such seasons.
- Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs: In 2023, Mahomes gave us career worsts in interceptions (14), yards per pass attempt (7.0), and TD rate (4.5% of passes). However, he also showcased career highs in rushing attempts (75) and yards (389).
The #Chiefs did not get the win today but Patrick Mahomes continues to put his name atop impressive QB record lists. pic.twitter.com/EtLXsKwkrc
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) December 26, 2023
- Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers: By averaging 9.6 yards per pass (tied for 8th-best season of all time — better than any Joe Montana, Peyton Manning, or Aaron Rodgers season), Purdy produced a season deserving of a new nickname.
- Justin Fields, Chicago Bears: The effort was made by the Bears to make him more efficient (12.6% dip in aDOT), but his completion percentage and yards per pass hardly flinched. The athletic tools provide us with a nice fantasy floor and buys him patience from managers as we continue to hope that his arm comes around.
- C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans: In 2023, Stroud became the fifth rookie QB to throw for 4,000 yards and he did it with missed time from each of his three primary targets (Nico Collins, Tank Dell, and Dalton Schultz).
- Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals: “Joe Cool” missed the final seven games of 2023 with a torn ligament in his right wrist, but his TD rate sat at just a lowly 4.1% through 10 games (previous two seasons: 6.1%).
- Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers: Did the Packers do it again? Love’s numbers in his first season as a NFL starter: 4,159 pass yards, 64.2% completion rate, 32 TDs, 11 INTs, and four rush TDs. Aaron Rodgers in his first full season: 4,038 pass yards, 63.6% completion rate, 30 TDs, 13 INTs, and four rush TDs. Love’s dynasty outlook is certainly more favorable now than it was entering the 2023 season.
- Jared Goff, Detroit Lions: Over the past two seasons, Goff’s TD rate at home is 7.0% (compared to 2.9% on the road). For reference, Dak Prescott led the league in touchdown passes in 2023 and had 6.1% TD rate, and Bailey Zappe posted a 2.8% rate for the New England Patriots.
- Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts: The rookie QB had four rushing TDs in his first four starts (left two of those games before throwing 15 passes), while also adding a 38+ yard completion in three of those four games.
- Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins: He appeared in every game in 2023 (no more than 13 games in any of his first three seasons), averaging 8.5 yards per pass over the past two seasons.
- Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars: Lawrence saw his touchdown rate fall from 4.3% in 2022 to 3.7% in 2023, the opposite of what was assumed to be the result of adding WR Calvin Ridley to this roster. The ADP is going to fall in a significant way — assuming he is healthy with the same weaponry at his disposal, Lawrence could be a very interesting buy-the-dip candidate.
- Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings: An Achilles injury ended his season after eight games (only one DNP in his Vikings career prior). He turns 36 in August but has been aging like fine wine, averaging over two touchdown passes per game in three of his past four seasons.
- Derek Carr, New Orleans Saints: The veteran has completed over 67% of his passes in five of his past six seasons but has fired fewer than 25 TD passes in three straight, despite strong health.
Fantasy Football Stats — Running Backs
- Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers: His per 17-game regular season numbers since joining the 49ers: 2,036 yards from scrimmage, 75 receptions, and 20 TDs.
- Travis Etienne, Jacksonville Jaguars: Jacksonville’s bell cow RB recorded more catches as a sophomore than targets in his first season (he averaged a catch every 3.5 rush attempts in his final season at Clemson).
- Raheem Mostert, Miami Dolphins: He broke the Dolphins’ record for scrimmage TDs in a season and has set a new career high in touches in consecutive seasons (turns 32 years old in April and is an interesting conversation point when it comes to dynasty fantasy football trade options).
- Breece Hall, New York Jets: The 2023 RB leader in receptions posted pass catching numbers in his first full season as the lead back that mirrored McCaffrey’s numbers in the latter’s first season in that role.
- Kyren Williams, Los Angeles Rams: He missed time, but he was nothing short of elite when on the field with eight top-10 finishes in his 12 games (15 TDs scored). Williams is going to be given first round consideration this summer and he deserves every ounce of that hype.
- Rachaad White, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: There is no denying the stability he provides in the pass game: 50+ catches and a 86% or higher catch rate in both of his NFL seasons.
- Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals: The veteran RB has at least nine touchdowns in three straight seasons, and his highest single-season catch totals have come in the past two years.
- Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit Lions: Versatility was no issue for the rookie — five games with at least five targets and a rushing touchdown.
- David Montgomery, Detroit Lions: Every backfield with lightning needs some thunder, and Montgomery posted career highs in TDs and yards per carry while filling that role. That role, however, resulted in a career-low involvement in the pass game, as he saw just 24 targets all year.
- Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints: The game’s most consistent pass catching back was as involved as ever through the air, but his efficiency (4.5 yards per touch) took a nosedive from his career rate prior (5.7).
- Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans: In his (assumed) Tennessee swan song, Henry punched in 10+ rushing scores for a sixth straight season but recorded a career low in yards per carry. He has been held under two catches per game in every season of his career. King Henry turned 30 years old ahead of Week 18 and has over 2,300 touches on his NFL résumé.
- James Cook, Buffalo Bills: There were only three players who ran for 1,000 yards and cleared 400 through the air in the 2023 regular season: 49ers RB McCaffrey, Jaguars RB Etienne (both who are top-20 overall players for me in 2024), and Cook.
- Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons: With Arthur Smith fired, maybe Robinson can be the superstar he seems destined to be? As a rookie, he averaged 17.8 full-PPR points per game when getting at least 15 touches, a mark that would have made him the RB4 for the season (behind only 49ers RB McCaffrey, Rams RB Kyren Williams, and Saints RB Kamara on a per game basis).
- Isiah Pacheco, Kansas City Chiefs: In three fewer games, Pacheco had 30 more catches in his second season than targets in his rookie campaign. He had two different three-game streaks with a rush TD and ended his regular season with three-plus catches in seven of nine games.
- Tony Pollard, Dallas Cowboys: Let’s put some numbers on his dip in efficiency from 2022. When comparing his past two seasons on a per-touch basis, Pollard averaged 31.8% fewer PPR points, 35.4% fewer half-PPR points, and 38.9% fewer non-PPR points per touch in 2023 than 2022.
- Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns: He cleared 1,300 yards and scored at least eight TDs in four seasons prior to suffering a season-ending knee injury in Week 2. Chubb was a unique producer heading into 2023 and there’s a good chance you get a significant discount this summer.
- Saquon Barkley, New York Giants: The talent is no secret, but if not for the occasional splash play, Barkley is on the wrong side of ordinary. In his six games with a 30+ yard touch in 2023, he averaged 17.2 half-PPR points per game, a figure that would have landed him as the RB3 on a per game basis, ahead of both Dolphins backs. In his other eight games (10.5 points per game), he’s a tick under Gus Edwards and Najee Harris.
- D’Andre Swift, Philadelphia Eagles: Over the final two months of the season, Swift was a matchup play. He managed just 2.7 yards per carry when facing the Cowboys or 49ers and 5.0 against the rest of the league. We will see if he remains with the Eagles in 2024, but Philadelphia plays the AFC North next season, a division that saw all four teams rank outside of the top 20 in preventing yards per carry.
- Kenneth Walker, Seattle Seahawks: Through his first two seasons, Walker has racked up 2,379 yards from scrimmage, averaged 4.4 yards per carry, and found the end zone 18 times. Through Marshawn Lynch’s first two seasons, he totaled 2,635 yards from scrimmage, averaged 4.1 ypc, and found the end zone 16 times. Beast Mode put up those numbers for a Bills team that won seven games the season prior to drafting him and with 35 collegiate touchdowns on his résumé. Walker? Drafted by a seven-win Seahawks team after scoring 36 collegiate TDs.
- Jaylen Warren, Pittsburgh Steelers: We now have a 315-touch sample size of Warren averaging just over 5.5 yards per opportunity. Could he see his role expand in 2024? It’s a small sample, but he did average 6.0 yards per carry in 2023 when being handed the ball more than 10 times in a game.
- Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers: He is the only RB in the NFL to break over 20 tackles in each of the past three seasons. Additionally, he averaged a broken tackle once every 9.1 carries in 2023 (career-best). Warren is the more explosive back, but expecting Harris to fade away is unwise.
- Brian Robinson Jr., Washington Commanders: How important is versatility? As a rookie, Robinson totaled 857 yards and three scores. In Year 2, Robinson totaled 1,101 yards and nine scores. He had exactly 214 touches in both of those seasons (nine catches in 2022 compared to 36 in 2023).
- Keaton Mitchell, Baltimore Ravens: He has a carry in six NFL games … he has a run gaining over 20 yards in all six of them. The home-run hitting skill set is one that works perfectly alongside a unique athlete like Lamar Jackson.
- Gus Edwards, Baltimore Ravens: A strong role can be the most impactful part of a fantasy profile. In 2018-22, Edwards averaged 5.2 yards per carry, but scored on only 13 of his 501 carries. In 2023, he averaged 4.1 yards per carry and managed to score 13 times on his 198 carries.
- Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas Raiders: The pending free agent has played just one full season (2022) and has zero total career TD receptions on a ledger that includes over 1,500 touches.
- De’Von Achane, Miami Dolphins: He led all running backs with 21 carries of 20+ yards –- not bad for a player who ranked 47th at the position in rush attempts.
- Austin Ekeler, Los Angeles Chargers: Did the 28-year old Ekeler fall off the age cliff? In 14 games, he gave fantasy managers 1,064 yards (4.6 yards per touch) and six touchdowns in 2023. His 14-game numbers from the two seasons prior: 1,355 yards (5.4 yards per touch) and 16 touchdowns.
- Chuba Hubbard, Carolina Panthers: Thomas Brown used Hubbard as his featured back down the stretch and the volume was valuable, but don’t mistake volume for talent. There were 37 running backs with a carry gaining more than 35 yards in 2023 –- not only was Hubbard not one of them, he is still searching for his first such carry in the NFL (505 carries over three seasons).
- James Conner, Arizona Cardinals: What age cliff? Conner led all qualified players by breaking a tackle once every 7.7 carries in 2023 (Etienne, Harris, Gibbs and Jerome Ford round out the top bunch in that metric).
- Javonte Williams, Denver Broncos: An encouraging rookie season (six games with a 30+ yard touch) led to Williams being hyped up prior to the 2022 campaign, one that was cut short due to the knee injury. In his return to action, Williams didn’t have a single touch gain more than 21 yards (264 touches). Remember that recovery timelines are not linear — be careful in dismissing the 23-year-old RB.
- Rhamondre Stevenson, New England Patriots: In Weeks 1-17 last season, Stevenson had 64 catches, 1,339 scrimmage yards, and six touchdowns on his resume. This season, if you use Stevenson’s numbers in Weeks 1-12 and Ezekiel Elliott’s in Weeks 13-17, you get: 63 catches, 1,200 scrimmage yards, and eight touchdowns. Be careful in writing him off for 2024.
- Tyjae Spears, Tennessee Titans: The rookie RB ended the season in style, turning his six touches into 66 yards and a pair of touchdowns in an upset win over the Jags. He only had one double-digit carry game in his rookie season, but he did catch three or more passes in 11 games.
- Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts: He is less than two weeks shy of his 25th birthday and has 44 TDs in 53 career regular season games. We saw Indianapolis’ commitment to a single RB — with Taylor out, Zack Moss averaged 24.3 touches per game in Weeks 2-5 — and Taylor is positioned to enter 2024 in full health.
- Aaron Jones, Green Bay Packers: Green Bay’s bell cow RB ran for 16 scores on 236 carries in 2019 but has punched in just 17 of his 727 carries since. Jones was a special fantasy asset because he blended elite scoring equity with efficiency. The scoring rates are stuck in reverse, and efficiency is often the first thing that disappears with age (Jones turned 29 in December and has over 1,500 touches on his resume).
- AJ Dillon, Green Bay Packers: His yards per carry have declined every season (5.3, to 4.3, to 4.1, to 3.4). He didn’t have a 20-yard carry in 14 of his 15 games in 2023 and looks to be little more than a low-upside handcuff for 2024.
- Khalil Herbert, Chicago Bears: With David Montgomery out of town, the Bears were non-committal on labeling a back as their RB1. However, Herbert did average 4.9 yards per touch. He caught 20 passes in 12 games after catching 23 passes in his first 30 games, growth that was good to see but shouldn’t be viewed as stable with Roschon Johnson likely to fill that role for 2024 and beyond.
- Roschon Johnson, Chicago Bears: By averaging nearly one target for every two carries, Johnson was pretty clearly pigeon-holed into a third down role. He can be a Cincinnati Bengals RB Giovani Bernard type of player and hold marginal value in this role, but we need to see more usage as a ball carrier (zero games with over 10 carries) before labeling him as a weekly fantasy starter.
- Devin Singletary, Houston Texans: Singletary had a career year in terms of touches (246) and rushing yards (898 at 4.2 ypc). Texans teammate Dameon Pierce totaled 1,100 yards as a rookie, but the 24-year old (birthday in February) had more kick returns than offensive touches in Week 18.
- Zamir White, Las Vegas Raiders: The Raiders spent draft capital on White (2022 fourth round pick) and insisted on getting a good look at him down the stretch with Josh Jacobs out with 20+ touches in four straight games (23.3 touches per game).
Fantasy Football Stats — Wide Receivers
- CeeDee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys: The Cowboys’ record holder for catches (135) and receiving yards (1,749) in a single season continues to see his status ascend, and with his growth, defenses simply can’t stop him (career-high 74.6% catch rate in 2023 despite all of the attention being paid his way).
- Tyreek Hill, Miami Dolphins: The play for 2k came up short (1,799 receiving yards), but Hill had six games with over 145 yards and a touchdown catch in 2023. Big plays are risky to rely on for most –- Hill isn’t most (eight games with a 35+ yard catch).
- Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings: Is the best getting even better? Jefferson dropped seven of 167 targets in 2021 (4.2%). Since then, the All-Pro WR has put just six of 284 targets on the ground (2.1%).
- Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit Lions: The Sun God finished his third season with a TD in four straight games and scored in seven of his final nine. He has 315 catches through three seasons and has seen his touchdown rate and yards per catch increase each year.
- A.J. Brown, Philadelphia Eagles: Brown traded big plays (career low 13.7 yards per catch) for volume (106 catches, 18 more than he’s ever had). What role he will fill going forward depends on Jalen Hurts’ development, but the fact that he can adjust his game speaks to the safety he offers fantasy managers.
- Puka Nacua, Los Angeles Rams: The rookie record holder in catches and receiving yards was an elite target-earner from the second he stepped onto a NFL field (35 targets through his first two games). He participated on 90.6% of routes for the season and was sixth best receiver on a yards per route basis. The Rams labeled him as an asset from the get-go and he rewarded them for the entirety of the season.
- Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams: Kupp has 13 missed games over the past two seasons after missing a total of one in the three years prior. The health is one thing, but the decline in catch rate this season is another (2023: 62.1%, career prior: 72.9%).
- Keenan Allen, Los Angeles Chargers: The veteran turns 32 in April but has 97+ catches in six straight seasons when he appears in 11+ games. A heel injury ended his 2023 season early, the fourth straight year in which he missed action.
- Mike Williams, Los Angeles Chargers: October surgery on his torn ACL (expected to be ready for camp) ended what looked like a high-volume season in the making. He has just one full year on his NFL resume (2018), and, after scoring once every 6.6 targets in 2018, he has scored once every 20.1 targets since. He turns 30 in October and has seen his yards per catch dip in four straight seasons.
- Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: The fantasy industry was worried about Evans after a tough 2022 season that saw him inflate his numbers with a single game. The fantasy industry was wrong. Evans immediately clicked with QB Baker Mayfield and produced six top-10 performances — he’s a talent that can elevate those around him, not someone who needs someone else to elevate him.
- Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: The veteran WR was back to earning targets at his expected rate over the final two months of the season, but he did see his touchdown total decline for a fourth consecutive year. In this passing era, volume isn’t too hard to come by, placing more importance on touchdown creators, a skill that has left the bag of Godwin.
- DJ Moore, Chicago Bears: Despite the passing limitations of Justin Fields, Moore posted the seventh-highest passer rating when targeted in 2023 (min. 100 targets). His 113.1 mark was greater than that of Justin Jefferson, A.J. Brown, and Travis Kelce to name a few. The ceiling is the roof for Moore if Fields remains in town.
- Nico Collins, Houston Texans: He helped the Texans earn a playoff berth with a 9-195-1 line against the Colts in Week 18 (75-yard TD on their first play). In his third season, Collins had 10 more catches and five more touchdowns than he had in his first two years combined, while leading all pass catchers in broken tackles.
- Tank Dell, Houston Texans: A fibula injury cost Dell the final six games of his encouraging rookie season. He scored in the final four games of his first campaign, and if you extend those contests for an entire 17-game season: 106 catches for 1,568 yards and 21 TDs.
- Stefon Diggs, Buffalo Bills: The decline in his role late in the season was tough to watch for fantasy managers. Yet, he did end the year with over 100 catches and eight scores, which is something he has done in all four of his seasons for the Bills. Diggs finished the 2023 campaign with 16 more catches than any other Bills player had targets.
- Gabe Davis, Buffalo Bills: Through November, it looked like Davis’ final stat line would show some growth –- worry not, he failed to reach 25 receiving yards in four of his final five games. He has scored six or seven touchdowns while averaging over 15.5 yards per catch and catching fewer than 50 balls in all four of his seasons. You know what you’re getting, you just have no idea when those numbers are going to be produced.
- Tee Higgins, Cincinnati Bengals: The 15.6 yards per catch he averaged was a career high, but his 55.3% catch rate and low weekly floor left fantasy managers often wanting more. The talent is clear, but he’s yet to catch 75 passes or reach 1,100 receiving yards in a season.
- Michael Pittman Jr., Indianapolis Colts: All Pittman did in 2023 was set career highs in catches (109), targets (156), and receiving yards (1,152). The production between the 20’s was great, but he has just 15 career TD catches on 336 receptions (62 games, one TD every 22.4 catches).
- Davante Adams, Las Vegas Raiders: He managed to catch 100+ passes and score eight-plus touchdowns for a fourth straight season despite posting the fifth lowest passer rating when targeted (minimum 100 targets, 79.3). For reference, Falcons WR London saw a higher passer rating when targeted (79.5) than Adams in 2023.
- Jakobi Meyers, Las Vegas Raiders: “Situation” is to the fantasy industry what “location” is to real estate. Meyers saw 10+ targets or scored in five of his first six games as he thrived with QB Jimmy Garoppolo under center. He was held under 45 receiving yards in the majority of his games for the rest of the season.
- Deebo Samuel, San Francisco 49ers: Samuel has three-plus rush TDs in every year in which he has played at least half the season and posted a career high in TD receptions in 2023 despite another modest target count campaign.
- Brandon Aiyuk, San Francisco 49ers: It’s not rare for a receiver to trade in catch rate for an increase in spike plays. It is rare for a player to see both of those stats trend in the same direction, but that’s what Aiyuk managed in 2023. His yards per catch was up from 13.0 to 17.9 and his catch rate inched up from 68.4% to 71.4%.
- Adam Thielen, Minnesota Vikings: The veteran receiver notched his second career 100-reception season and his third 1,000-yard campaign. The overall numbers look fine, but with over half of his catches and all of his scores coming in a six game stretch, fantasy managers didn’t get as much value out of Thielen as the final stat line suggests.
- Rashee Rice, Kansas City Chiefs: There were 42 players with 100+ targets in 2023 and Rice was the only one to clear 7.4 yards after the catch per reception — he averaged 8.3. Rice is positioned to be a lineup lock in 2024 without much risk.
- Amari Cooper, Cleveland Browns: Cooper set a career high in TD receptions in his first Cleveland season (2022) and set a career high in receiving yards in his second year (1,250 in 15 games). He averaged a career high 17.4 yards per catch (the franchise record 265 yards in Week 16 at HOU helped) in 2023, continuing to prove himself as an alpha receiver.
- DeVonta Smith, Philadelphia Eagles: His aDOT grew by 24.6% from 2022, but his per game production in terms of catches and yards fell. It’s not rare for a young receiver to experience a learning curve entering the pros — stay patient.
- DK Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks: The QB situation in Seattle may be unknown, but it may not matter for Metcalf. In 2023, he saw his catch total decline by 24 –- yet, he finished with 66 more receiving yards and two more scores. Good receivers can produce, great ones can’t be stopped by limitations around them.
- Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks: Entering 2023, Lockett had five straight seasons with over 900 receiving yards and eight touchdowns –- he did neither in his age 31 season.
- Calvin Ridley, Jacksonville Jaguars: After a season-long suspension, Ridley caught just 55.9% of his targets in 2023, a rate well below his mark from his time in Atlanta (65.3%). His point-per catch production in 2023 (2.97), however, was nearly identical to the number he produced prior to coming to Jacksonville (3.01).
- Christian Kirk, Jacksonville Jaguars: Kirk had an up-and-down season that saw him clear 100 yards or score in five of 12 games, but he was held under 50 yards five times and had fewer than five catches in seven games.
- Zay Flowers, Baltimore Ravens: The rookie scored in four of his final five games as a rookie (in those five games, his aDOT was 13.7% lower than it was through his first 11 weeks). Flowers’ stock is moving in the right direction, and it’s possible that his 2024 ADP doesn’t encompass all of his growth potential.
- Odell Beckham Jr., Baltimore Ravens: After not playing in 2022, OBJ averaged a career-high 16.1 yards per catch with the Ravens. His 2.5 catches per game make him a tough sell as a fantasy regular, but he did showcase some juice that we weren’t sure he still had this year.
- DeAndre Hopkins, Tennessee Titans: Nuk caught 52 total passes as a rookie as he got used to the speed of the professional game. In every season since, he has averaged north of 4.2 catches, a trend that continued through his age-31 season thanks to a 28.7% target share.
- Jordan Addison, Minnesota Vikings: He had five games with a 35+ yard catch, and over 13 yards per reception isn’t bad for an introduction to the league. The presence of Jefferson in this WR room caps his upside, but also raises his floor given the limited amount of resources that can be shifted in his direction.
- Jaylen Waddle, Miami Dolphins: The 25-year-old WR has cleared 1,000 yards in all three of his seasons, though his role has been something of a moving target (9.8 yards per catch as a rookie, 18.1 in 2022, and 14.1 in 2023). His best game (8-142-1) came with Tyreek Hill sidelined … his per game production in all other games extended for 17 games: 84 catches for 1,140 yards and just four touchdowns.
- Jayden Reed, Green Bay Packers: The rookie caught 80% of his targets or scored in nine straight games to wrap up the 2023 season. Reed showed the ability to create with the ball in his hands and be efficient. With an entire offseason to scheme the offense in his direction, he stands to become a consistent fantasy asset in short order.
- Christian Watson, Green Bay Packers: Hamstring injuries limited him to nine games in 2023. Watson has scored on 12 of his 69 receptions, but he has failed to catch more than three passes in 15 of career 23 games (65.2%).
- Romeo Doubs, Green Bay Packers: Ridley, Lamb, and Evans. That’s your entire list of players who saw more end zone looks in the 2023 regular season than Doubs. The target hierarchy in Green Bay is in flux and could be an interesting situation in which to invest this summer.
- Dontayvion Wicks, Green Bay Packers: Any rookie that averages over 2.0 full-PPR fantasy points per target is worth your attention, and that’s what we have in the fifth-round pick out of Virginia.
- Courtland Sutton, Denver Broncos: Sutton gave us a career high in TD receptions in 2023 with 10, but he still has only one season with 900+ receiving yards.
- Jerry Jeudy, Denver Broncos: Over his past 27 games, 60% of Jeudy’s touchdown receptions came in a single game. Through four seasons, one of every 32.4 targets has resulted in a Jeudy score, a problem for a player who has yet to establish himself as a consistent separator.
- Terry McLaurin, Washington Commanders: If only we had an example of what a 6’0″ and 210 pound receiver with pedigree could do when he gets stability under center. DJ Moore had 4,413 yards and 19 touchdowns in his final four seasons in Carolina before exploding for career-highs across the board with Chicago in 2023. In his past four seasons, McLaurin has 4,364 yards and 18 touchdowns.
- Drake London, Atlanta Falcons: The first two seasons for this former first-rounder haven’t lived up to the hype, but be patient. He averaged 4.3 catches for 53.7 yards through two seasons in Atlanta, numbers that are similar to what Ridley did in his rookie year with the Falcons (4.0 catches and 51.3 yards). It’s worth noting that Ridley made significant strides as a target earner in the following season before posting a career year in this third as a pro (90-1,374-9 in 2020).
- Darius Slayton, New York Giants: This one-trick pony has averaged over 15 yards per catch in four of his five NFL seasons, but he’s yet to clear 50 receptions.
- Tutu Atwell, Los Angeles Rams: The 2021 second-round pick has one career game with more than two catches and a touchdown reception.
- Demarcus Robinson, Los Angeles Rams: The surprise WR down the stretch of the fantasy season rattled off four straight games with a touchdown in December. He’s earned 60+ targets in just one of his seven NFL seasons, but he has scored on 9.1% of his career receptions. For reference, Cooper Kupp (9.0%), Tutu Atwell (7.0%), and Puka Nacua (5.7%) all have lower rates.
- DeMario Douglas, New England Patriots: New England’s 5’8” slot receiver saw five-plus targets in nine straight games to end his rookie year and earned a respectable 23.3% target share over the final two months of the season.
- Jahan Dotson, Washington Commanders: As a rookie, Dotson averaged 8.6 yards per target and scored once every 5.0 receptions. In 2023, those numbers tanked to 6.2 yards per target and a touchdown once every 12.3 catches.
- Michael Thomas, New Orleans Saints: He turns 31 years old in March and has played a total of 20 games over the past four seasons. The record-setting volume is a thing of the past, though his health is something that should be tracked by PPR managers.
- Jonathan Mingo, Carolina Panthers: A foot injury ended his rookie season early, but he did earn six-plus targets in five straight games during the middle of the season. Mingo is an interesting option to keep on your deep-league radar as this offense evolves.
Fantasy Football Stats — Tight Ends
- Sam LaPorta, Detroit Lions: Prior to getting hurt in Week 18, LaPorta set the record for receptions by a rookie TE, while also joining Rob Gronkowski and Mike Ditka as the only rookie tight ends with 10+ TD receptions.
- Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs: The 34-year-old TE saw his 1,000-yard season streak end at seven straight, while his 10.6 yards per catch was easily a career low. Yet, he did clear 90 catches for a sixth straight season (one of two Chiefs with 45+ catches in 2023).
- T.J. Hockenson, Minnesota Vikings: He required surgery after significant injuries to his ACL and MCL on Christmas Eve. He turns 27 this summer and has 155 catches in 25 games since joining the Vikings (6.2 per game).
- Evan Engram, Jacksonville Jaguars: In his first season with the Jaguars, Engram set a career high in receptions with 73. In year two, he nearly broke the single season record for the position with 114 grabs (4+ in every game) –- two shy of Zach Ertz’s record set in 2018.
- George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers: Kittle posted a career-high 15.7 yards per catch in 2023, helping put Brock Purdy in the MVP conversation. Kittle’s annual numbers always seem to get there, but he had twice as many games with 30 or fewer receiving yards than he did games with over 90 this season.
- David Njoku, Cleveland Browns: In his final four games of the regular season with Joe Flacco rolling, Njoku racked up 373 yards and four touchdowns –- in his 12 games prior: 509 yards and two touchdowns.
- Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears: 49ers TE Kittle has six-plus touchdown catches in each of the past two seasons — Kmet is the only other tight end with that box checked. He’s not flashy, but if Fields remains in Chicago, Kmet is the type of tight end that fantasy managers who are waiting to address the position should target.
- Trey McBride, Arizona Cardinals: From Week 8 through the end of the fantasy season (Week 17), no tight end earned a higher target share than McBride (26.4%, the only TE over that stretch over 25%).
- Jake Ferguson, Dallas Cowboys: The second-year Cowboys TE led the position in red zone targets, totaling more than Kittle and Engram combined.
- Dalton Schultz, Houston Texans: In his first season with the Texans, Schultz saw his yards per target increase by 11.3% from his final season with the Cowboys. In his second season as an integral part of Dallas’ offense, he had a career year (78-808-8). Can he repeat that success in year two with C.J. Stroud and company?
- Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens: No concerns about the ankle injury lingering (seven missed games, whispers of him returning if Baltimore makes a deep run) and he scored on 13.3% of his catches prior to the injury (up from 6.8% in 2022).
- Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia Eagles: Since his rookie season, Goedert has played 12+ games four times –- he has caught 55-59 passes in all four of those seasons.
- Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills: In a four-game stretch that started with Dawson Knox getting injured (Knox missed the following three games in this stretch), the rookie caught 28 passes for 272 yards (68 per game) and two scores. In his other 14 games, Kincaid totaled 45 catches for 401 yards (28.6 per game) and zero TDs.
- Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons: His stock has certainly dipped since his historic rookie season, but Pitts’ dynasty value remains strong.
- Gerald Everett, Los Angeles Chargers: The 59-635-5 stat line from 2023 for Dalton Schultz doesn’t jump off the screen at you… yet, Everett has never hit any of those thresholds in a season.
- Darren Waller, New York Giants: In the three seasons following his career year (2020: 107 catches for 1,196 yards and nine scores), Waller has missed 19 games and has only scored six times.
- Isaiah Likely, Baltimore Ravens: As one of the better athletes at the position, Likely scored on five of his 17 catches over the final month of the regular season (he registered a 25+ yard catch in all five of those games).
- Michael Mayer, Las Vegas Raiders: A toe injury ended his season in December, a rookie year that included just one game with 50+ yards. You don’t need to draft him in 2024, though TE streamers would be wise to keep his name in the back of their minds.