Week 4 of the fantasy football season is upon us. This week on Amazon Prime, we get an AFC showdown in Week 4 as the Miami Dolphins head north to take on the Cincinnati Bengals. With no time to waste, here are the top start/sit plays for Week 4 Thursday Night Football.
Thursday Night Football | Fantasy Football Start/Sit for Week 4
Start: Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Miami Dolphins
I know they’re still saying back and ankle issues are what Tua is dealing with. But I don’t know about you — I never had a back or ankle injury that made me try to shake out the cobwebs. Either way, Tua looks good to suit up on Thursday after recording limited participation in Miami’s walk-throughs.
By no means should fantasy managers expect nearly 500 yards and six touchdowns. However, Tua is still a top-10 QB for fantasy this week. This offense is full of playmakers and can strike as quick as lightning with their speed. This is a Bengals defense that, at first glance, looks difficult (third-fewest points allowed), but when you see they have played Mitch Trubisky, Cooper Rush, and Joe Flacco, you are far less impressed. If you have Tua, feel free to start him in Week 4.
Start: Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals
On the other side of the coin, Miami looks like a cakewalk matchup for Joe Burrow. The Dolphins enter Week 4 dead last in points allowed at 25.95. However, two of those three games came against Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen, where they surrendered 718 yards and five touchdowns.
Of the two, I feel safer about Tua. Nonetheless, I wouldn’t tell you to sit Burrow. Miami can dial up pressure, and it could be a long day if they use the same scheme that limited Josh Allen and the Bills. That said, Cincy has enough weapons and chess pieces to move around for Burrow to pick and choose his matchups. Burrow is a lower-end QB1.
Start: Joe Mixon, RB, Cincinnati Bengals
Joe Mixon has been quiet over the last two weeks. After a Week 1 outing where he had 82 rushing yards and 63 receiving yards, he has a combined 81 rushing yards (31 attempts) and 40 receiving yards.
Mixon was a dark-horse candidate to fight for the league lead in rushing yards behind what appeared to be a massively improved OL. Still, fantasy managers would settle for reliable RB1 performances at this point. Of Mixon’s 2.8 yards per carry, 1.8 are coming after contact. He’ll need every one of those against an aggressive Miami defense. He is a lower-end RB1 with touchdown upside against the ninth-ranked DST vs. RBs (18.03 PPR).
Start: Tyreek Hill, WR, Miami Dolphins
After 60 PPR points in the first two weeks, Tyreek Hill struggled last week, catching two of four targets for 33 yards. While I am not saying he’ll have 42 points again, Hill could explode.
The Bengals, much like most teams, don’t have a CB who can stick with him, and it’s apparent they are targeting the Eli Apple matchup. They’re playing with fire if they ever give him a one-on-one look. This offense confuses defenses with the amount of pre- and post-snap motion. Plus, there’s so much speed on the field, especially if they put Hill and Waddle on the same side. Lock Hill in as a high-end WR1 for Thursday Night Football.
Start: Jaylen Waddle, WR, Miami Dolphins
Not only do the Dolphins have the overall WR5 in PPR scoring on their roster (Hill), but they also have the No. 4-ranked wideout in Jaylen Waddle. After Week 1, which concerned some managers due to his lack of usage, Waddle silenced the doubters. He blew up with 171 yards and two touchdowns on 11-of-19 receiving against Baltimore and has now scored 15+ PPR points in all three weeks.
There is no No. 1 or No. 2. It’s 1A/1B in Miami. Hill has 317 yards and two touchdowns on 21-of-39 receiving, whereas Waddle has 19 receptions on 30 targets for 342 yards and three touchdowns. The only major difference is in the air yards, with Waddle having a 42.7% to 33% edge. They are both must-start players, with Waddle a top-10 option in fantasy.
Start: Ja’Marr Chase, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
There are very few times where Ja’Marr Chase matches up with a corner capable of putting the clamps on him and frustrating him. Xavien Howard is one of those guys. Last week, Howard and Miami held Stefon Diggs to 74 yards on 7-of-11 receiving, which is about as good as you could expect when facing the Bills. Remember, Diggs had 270 yards and 4 TDs in the first two games.
Miami put their DBs on islands quite a bit in Week 3, banking on their pass rush getting there in time. That could work here, but the Chase/Burrow connection has been beating defenses willing to bump and run since they were at LSU. Chase has not had 60 yards since Week 1, and the Bengals need a big game from him. He will be a low-end WR1 in Week 4 against Miami.
Start: Tee Higgins, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
Tee Higgins got robbed. That was one of the best plays you’ll ever see, and Higgins was on the wrong end of a dumb technicality about which directing your feet are facing on a toe tap. It was a touchdown, and you’ll never take that away from me, Roger.
If you’ve been following me, you’ll know I have been pretty vocal that Higgins is not receiving enough respect. Here is another piece of context.
Higgins and Chase have each run 562 routes in their careers. Higgins has more targets (127 to 112) and more air yards (1,581 to 1,348) despite Chase’s label as the deep threat. Higgins has scored more fantasy points than Chase (252.4 to 236.7 PPR). On a per-game basis, Higgins was +/- 0.2 away from CeeDee Lamb in per-game targets, receptions, yards, and fantasy points coming into the year.
Higgins also has the easier matchup of the two, assuming Howard shadows Chase. It wouldn’t surprise me one bit if Higgins outscored Chase in Week 4.
Start: Hayden Hurst, TE, Cincinnati Bengals
If you want to attack the Dolphins’ defense, teams typically do it inside out. That shows up in the tight ends, where Miami has allowed the third-most points to the position (19.76), the most receptions (26), and second-most yards (269) through three weeks. Much of that came via Mark Andrews in Week 2.
Could Hayden Hurst pile it on come Thursday? He just might. Although he is the TE19 overall (6.6 PPR/game), Hurst was the TE13 coming into last week, sitting seventh in targets (15), tied for fifth in receptions (10), and was in the top 12 in yards. Hurst suffered a setback to his groin in the final practice last week, likely leading to his down day.
If you are in a deeper league or are streaming the position, Hurst has high-end TE2 upside and even an outside shot at a score — something to keep in mind in DFS, where prices are sky-high as a potential salary saver.
Sit: Chase Edmonds and Raheem Mostert, RB, Miami Dolphins
I will not sit here and act like I know what Miami will do at running back. Chase Edmonds recorded six carries for 21 yards but saw his day salvaged by two touchdowns on Sunday. Edmonds saw one less touch than Raheem Mostert, but the week before, Mostert had the edge 14 to 8.
They average less than 3.4 yards per carry and 26 rushing yards a game. That’s not going to cut it. The rushing game we thought might follow Mike McDaniel from San Francisco has yet to arrive. Sitting 31st as a team in rushing, I am sitting both running backs in fantasy.
I would much rather start someone like Khalil Herbert, Jamaal Williams, or Alexander Mattison, all of whom were waiver wire targets and could still be sitting there right now in your league.
Sit: Tyler Boyd, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
Tyler Boyd carries plenty of upside, but he also carries a scary floor, too. Boyd has a highlight play against the Jets, taking a 7-yard reception, and after a DB went for a hit-stick and not a tackle, Boyd took it for a 56-yard house call. That one play represented 58% of his yardage (102).
Chase and Higgins will always overshadow him. Still, he has the chance to be the spark plug he was last week. The issue is if that doesn’t happen, Boyd can disappoint due to the lack of volume as the No. 3. Boyd only had six receptions and 50 yards heading into the week. Of his last 19 games during the previous two years, Boyd has 50 yards or fewer in 11. With how many high-upside options are on the waiver wire, I’d rather look for another option and sit Boyd for Week 4 fantasy lineups.
Sit: Mike Gesicki, TE, Miami Dolphins
In fairness, Mike Gesicki shouldn’t be rostered, let alone started in fantasy. Gesicki caught his only target for six yards on Sunday. Through three weeks, he has a minuscule 5.9% target share. Gesicki is the TE21 on the season, with one game (Week 2) representing 82% of his scoring.
With two games of less than 1.5 PPR points, Gesicki is a roster clogger and should be dropped for a top waiver claim. He has just a 50% route participation and an 11% TPRR rate with a 5% air yard share. Just say no and avoid the headache.