Soppe’s DFS and Fantasy Playoff Cheat Sheet: Analysis for Every Player in Every Wild Card Game

This game of ours is one of very little separation, and that makes every decision critical. As much as I’d love to help every one of you with your specific questions (I’ll try — @KyleSoppePFN), that’s a big ask.

What I can give you, every single week, are my takes. My statistically backed rankings are available, but you, the devoted fantasy manager, need more than simply a number next to a name. You need to know why I stand where I do, and that’s my goal with this novel.

If you have a question, hit me up on Twitter, but my hope is that this extended piece will give you the insight you’re looking for without relying on me landing on your specific question before lineups lock.

You don’t have to get ready if you stay ready — this piece, is me staying ready to help you win the week!

Looking to make a trade in your fantasy league? Having trouble deciding who to start and who to sit? Setting DFS lineups? Check out PFN’s Free Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer, Start/Sit Optimizer, and DFS Lineup Optimizer to help you make the right decision!

Wild Card Fantasy Football Quarterbacks

Baker Mayfield, QB | TB (vs. WAS)

In 2021, Baker Mayfield completed 41.8% of his passes when under duress. His rate ticked up to 45.1% in 2022, to 49% in 2023, and up to 58% this season. He’s playing at a level above any ceiling I set for him this summer and that has him ready to go head-to-head with the explosive Jayden Daniels in what could be the most fantasy-friendly game of the week.

Mayfield has thrown multiple touchdown passes in five straight games, his second such streak this season. I have him penciled in to extend that streak in this spot against a Washington defense that can be had when they ramp up the aggression (24th in pressure rate when blitzing).

I do trust this Commanders defense more now than I did back in Week 1 when Mayfield lit them up for 289 yards and four scores through the air, but they still check in below average. If Daniels is pushing the Bucs to score, the fantasy points could pile up.

The nice part about rostering Mayfield in DFS is that your roster construction pretty much takes care of itself. This is a condensed offense (Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan are the only pass catchers that have my eye) and in going this direction, you get leverage off of what figures to be a very chalky Bucky Irving.

Pencil in a bring-back option (if you think the Bucs will have to air it out, maybe you believe they are playing from behind and that could mean a more friendly game script for Brian Robinson) and you’ve got the foundation for a reasonable lineup with some price flexibility.

Bo Nix, QB | DEN (at BUF)

Bo Nix made NFL history as the first rookie QB with 3+ TD passes and a 75% completion rate in four games. He also matched the franchise record for such games in a season (Peyton Manning had four in both 2012 and 2013). We knew that Sean Payton got his guy in the draft, we just had no idea that this would be a fantasy-friendly situation from the jump.

Everyone is picking the Bills to win this game, but few people figure to land on Nix. In what figures to be a fantasy-friendly script for this passing game, Nix could very well be put in a position where he needs to do it all, a nice role given the discounted price in the DFS streets.

Buffalo has plenty of strengths, but they are the worst playoff team in getting off the field (43.8% opponent third-down conversion rate; NFL average: 39.7%) and struggle against the slot (fifth-highest completion percentage). Those weaknesses can elevate Nix’s floor, something that is very appealing given that we are aware of his ceiling potential via Courtland Sutton and/or his rushing ability.

I’m not clicking on Nix in a cash setting where half the field is paid out, but if you’re in a top-heavy payout contest, he’s a very lively option.

C.J. Stroud, QB | HOU (vs. LAC)

If you want to be different, C.J. Stroud is the way to do it. The bird’s-eye profile checks the boxes — a QB who has succeeded at the NFL level with a top-10 receiver to throw to in a game where a passing game script is likely to occur.

That sounds good, but we just haven’t seen Stroud connect the dots this season, and the Chargers defense certainly isn’t a get-right type of spot. He threw 116 deep passes (15+ air yards) a season ago and 122 this season. The attempt count was similar, but the success rate was very different.

• 2023: Nine touchdowns and zero interceptions
• 2024: Five touchdowns and seven interceptions

These are two of the eight slowest-moving offenses in the NFL; if the Chargers take a lead, they’ve proven capable of bleeding the clock with the best of them. If you want a piece of Houston, I’d go with just one skill player instead of stacking up Stroud to gain leverage on the field.

Jalen Hurts, QB | PHI (vs. GB)

Jalen Hurts (and the coaching staff) is trusting his reads longer, a continued trend from the past few seasons. His quick pass rate in 2022 was 69.8% — it dipped to 61.7% in 2023 and finished this year at 57.3%. This is allowing his talented teammates to work downfield; against a Packers secondary with question marks, that fuels considerable upside.

Week 1 was forever ago, but we had a healthy version of this Eagles team. That seems to be the case here (assuming that Hurts is cleared of any concussion-related restrictions). In that win, Hurts was locked onto A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith (62.1% of targets, 60% of completions, and 73% of pass yards).

• Over 30 rushing yards in four of five career playoff games
• Rushing TD or a dozen rush attempts in 13 of 14 healthy games this regular season

The rushing upside speaks for itself, and if he is going to rely heavily on his most talented teammates, Hurts has every chance to be the leading scoring player in this round. He won’t be a unique play, but with three other athletic quarterbacks on the slate, I don’t expect any singular QB to be too popular.

Jayden Daniels, QB | WAS (at TB)

Jayden Daniels completed 27 of 36 passes (75%) against the blitz during his current five-game win streak, drastically improved from his 49.1% rate over his previous five games. After a midseason swoon likely caused by ailing ribs, the growth we are seeing is ultra-impressive for a player navigating his first professional season.

He relied heavily on his legs in his NFL debut against these Bucs (16 carries for 88 yards and two scores, one of which came in garbage time), but we have a much more comfortable and versatile Daniels these days. Tampa Bay owns the lowest interception rate among playoff teams (1.1%, 29th across the NFL), making Daniels my pick as most likely to hit the rare double-bonus (300 passing yards and 100 rushing yards) stat line.

Jordan Love, QB | GB (at PHI)

All seems good health-wise for Jordan Love after the Week 18 scare, but I’m not interested in going in this direction.

First and foremost, I’m not sure the Packers have the ball often enough. The Eagles average nearly 32.5 minutes of possession per game, the highest rate in the league and a threat to be surpassed in this game should they get out to an early lead.

Philadelphia ranked seventh in pressure rate, an impressive mark for the team that blitzes at the second-lowest rate in the league. Everything seems to come together at the right time, the strength that has impacted my ranking of Love more than anything.

In Weeks 11-16, Love’s pressured passer rating was 107.2, a number that has plummeted to 53.6 in two consecutive losses to round out the regular season. Green Bay’s path to success is not fantasy-friendly for Love — that has me passing on this passing game.

Josh Allen, QB | BUF (vs. DEN)

The presumptive MVP set the NFL record for games with multiple passing touchdowns and a rushing score (six), and we could see such a game this week after getting last week off to rest.

For his career, Allen is averaging 27.8 fantasy points per playoff game, clearing 30 points in half of those contests. If you think he plays a friendly style of game during the regular season, just wait until his season is on the line — 56.3 rushing yards per playoff game with multiple passing touchdowns in each of his past four.

Excluding the one-snap effort from Sunday, Allen has been held without multiple passing touchdowns OR a rushing touchdown just once since Week 5 (Week 16 vs. Patriots). There’s no reason to think that the Allen takeover season ends this week, even against a tough defense (Lamar Jackson completed 16 of 19 passes for 280 yards and three scores when the Broncos came to town).

Justin Herbert, QB | LAC (at HOU)

Justin Herbert is the first Charger to complete two-thirds of his passes with 280 yards and multiple scores through the air in three straight games (before him, it had been in consecutive games nine times in franchise history). He’s peaking at the right time, and that’s why Los Angeles is a road favorite to kick off the postseason.

The Herbert/Jim Harbaugh tandem has found its stride, and I don’t see the Texans serving as a speed bump. Only Dallas allowed touchdowns at a higher rate when opponents got into goal-to-go situations this season than Houston, giving Herbert (multiple rushing TDs in four of five seasons) a little more upside than meets the eye.

Even if a cheap rushing score doesn’t occur, there’s a path to plenty of upside. The Giants and Panthers are two passing defenses that struggled, right? The Ravens and Commanders are playoff teams with similar flaws, right?

The Texans allow more yards per completion than all of them, making Herbert a threat to lead this slate in passing yards (I’ve bet him to go over 230.5 passing yards and under 0.5 interceptions in such a way that a split would break me even).

Lamar Jackson, QB | BAL (vs. PIT)

I’m old enough to remember when there was talk about Lamar Jackson needing to change positions. He’s developed into a true dual threat where defenses have no real answer. This season, he has …

• 11 games with multiple TD passes and zero INTs
• 13 games with 40+ rushing yards
• Five games with a 25+ yard carry

The Steelers, in Week 16, bottled up Jackson and held him without a 10-yard run, the only such game for the reigning MVP this season (nine carries for 22 yards). Across two games with Pittsburgh, Jackson completed just 55.4% of his passes (all other games: 68.2%).

I’m not too worried about it.

Over the last two seasons under Todd Monken, Jackson has been a different QB:

• 2023-24: 66.9% completion rate, 8.4 yards per attempt, 7.0% TD rate, and 1.2% INT rate
• Previously in his career: 63.7% completion rate, 7.4 yards per attempt, 6.1% TD rate, and 2.3% INT rate

I’m happy to bet on two years of data over two data points from this season. Jackson offers plenty of upside, and if his ownership numbers do not project to be within shouting distance of Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, and Jayden Daniels, I have no issue going in this direction.

Matthew Stafford, QB | LAR (vs. MIN)

This game of ours can be so complicated. The smarter we get, the more intricate play-calling gets and a team’s willingness to think outside of the box can make them difficult to project.

Other times, it’s so simple. Matthew Stafford threw for 279 yards and four scores against the Vikings in Week 8, a production level that was made possible by following a single principle.

Give your best players a chance.

In that win, Stafford funneled 70.6% of his passes (68% of his completions) to Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp, or Kyren Williams. We can caution against building a top-heavy roster like what Los Angeles has, but in a one-game setting, it can be effective. At this point, that’s all that matters.

While I like the potential of this offense when everything is going right, I worry about the trajectory.

Stafford has completed a career-low 46.5% of his red-zone passes, and I’m less confident now as I can ever remember in his ability to rack up fantasy points through sheer volume (he hasn’t thrown more than 32 passes in a victory since Week 9).

Of course, that math flips if you think the Vikings control this game, as Stafford is averaging 38.7 attempts per game in defeats. I like the idea of the stars on this team getting a week off entering this game, though it should be noted that Stafford has been held under 200 passing yards in his last three contests after an official bye.

I’ve got this essentially as a neutral matchup. While I think this is a competitive game, there are six quarterbacks I’d rather back at cost this week, and that leaves me with no real exposure to Stafford. If things go right for the Rams, I think Williams is getting fed and if the game script flips, a pocket-locked QB isn’t how I want to beat Brian Flores’ aggression.

Russell Wilson, QB | PIT (at BAL)

Pittsburgh’s trajectory is very concerning, and when pairing that with the direction of Baltimore’s defense, this is a team I’m actively avoiding.

In Weeks 1-9, the Ravens ranked 24th in pressure rate when not blitzing. I love targeting defenses like that as they are forced into being aggressive, and those are the spots in which fantasy points can be racked up in a major way.

Since then, however, Baltimore has ranked fifth in that metric and is clearly peaking. That’s not a deal breaker for some offenses, but given where Pittsburgh’s mess is heading, I’m out.

Wilson’s production vs. pressure over the past two months:

• Passer rating when pressured, Weeks 12-14: 120.7 (would lead the NFL)
• Passer rating when pressured, Weeks 15-18: 43.9 (worse than Kirk Cousins)

And guess what? The pressured spots are the highlight while the veteran QB has seen his production fall off a cliff across the board:

Wilson has cleared a dozen rushing yards in five straight games, but he’s averaging just 18.2 completions per game over that run; he’s not the type that can average more rushing yards (25.6 per game during that month) than completions and pay off for fantasy managers.

For me, this is a risk you don’t need to take — there are different ways to be different with a clearer path to a ceiling performance.

Sam Darnold, QB | MIN (at LAR)

Sam Darnold has a little wiggle to his game but is largely a pocket passer. However, he’s my top-ranked QB who isn’t a threat to break open the game with his legs.

Soppe’s Wild Card QB rankings:

1. Josh Allen
2. Lamar Jackson
3. Jayden Daniels
4. Jalen Hurts
5. Sam Darnold

He completed 72% of his passes for 240 yards and a pair of scores in Week 8 against the Rams, a stat line that feels like a floor. He was efficient without the running game demanding much defensive attention (22 carries for 64 yards).

If Minnesota can force Los Angeles to respect the run at any level, Darnold becomes a good bet to hit the 300-yard bonus, which would help him make up for the lack of projectable rushing production. The Rams are the worst playoff team in terms of time of possession, another feather in Darnold’s cap as it paves the way for high-end volume that a player like Jackson might not get.

We get all sorts of readers here at PFN; some are fans of a good narrative. If that’s you:

In Week 7, Sam Darnold had as many touchdowns as interceptions in a loss where his team allowed 31 points to the Lions — he followed it up with his second-best passer rating of the season in Los Angeles against the Rams. He didn’t have any touchdowns or interceptions in Sunday’s 31-9 loss to the Lions, so …

The nice part about taking a passing-oriented quarterback is the stacking ability. Darnold isn’t posting a big week without one, if not two or three, of his pass catchers coming along for the ride. I don’t expect Darnold to be a chalky QB, and if you lock in two of his teammates with him, you instantly have a pretty unique nucleus.

Wild Card Fantasy Football Running Backs

Aaron Jones, RB | MIN (at LAR)

Aaron Jones hasn’t had a 15+ yard carry since November and has seen his rushing total decline in three straight games (held out of the end zone in each of those contests). I don’t think Cam Akers is a real threat to really push this to a committee situation, but he does have an explosive rush in consecutive games and found paydirt on a catch against the Packers in Week 17.

Jones didn’t exactly put forward good film in Week 8 against these Rams, picking up just 58 yards on 19 carries, averaging a season-low 1.89 yards per carry after contact in the process. That said, Minnesota was comfortable in acquiring the former Packer in part because of his postseason success.

For his career, Jones has produced 11% over expectations in postseason games, averaging 4.6 red-zone touches per game. There are some signs that the Vikings could use him in a similar way, as he averaged 4.5 targets and 3.3 red-zone touches against teams that qualified for the postseason.

I don’t think there is much hope for high-end efficiency, and that means you’re effectively chasing a touchdown. Generally speaking, I’m out on that sort of profile, but if you’re going to do it this week, Jones is as good a bet as any, playing on a team that is favored and opposing a defense that allows a touchdown on 25% of drives, the second-worst rate among playoff teams.

Minnesota should bounce back from their embarrassing showing on Sunday night, I’m just not sold that their RB1 is the beneficiary.

Audric Estimé, RB | DEN (at BUF)

Audric Estimé has scored in two of his past three games, but you’d have to really be looking to be different to go this direction with Denver being such a big underdog.

NFL dropback rates, 2015-24:

• Trailing: 67.7%
• Tied: 58.2%
• Leading: 51.7%

Rushing attempts could be limited for the Broncos, and that’s a death sentence when it comes to any hope for Estimé. Is it true that a running back in a Sean Payton scheme can scam his way to PPR points? It sure is, but we have no proof that the rookie would be used in such a role.

In a blowout win over the Falcons, he caught three passes in five plays – he has two other catches on his NFL résumé. We are looking at a player who doesn’t have a touch gaining 10+ yards in two months and projects for, at best, 6-8 touches.

I’m fine with targeting uncertainty in a playoff setting, but we seem to have a level of certainty in Estimé not being a consistent part of this offense.

Brian Robinson Jr., RB | WAS (at TB)

Brian Robinson Jr. is a fine player, but he’s nothing more than a leverage play this week. He managed just 40 yards on 12 carries in Week 1 as a part of this matchup, and that was without defenses having to allocate the attention to Jayden Daniels they now prioritize.

The problem for me with Robinson is the regression of his passing-game number. Last season, he turned 218 routes into 43 targets (19.7% rate). That growth was great to see, but with 25 targets on 185 routes this year (13.5% rate), we can’t count on much help should the game script work away from the ground game.

The contrarian side of this would be you taking a pro-Washington angle. The Commanders jumped out early in Week 13 against the Titans, and their running backs finished with 35 carries for 229 yards and a pair of scores. I don’t think that’s a likely outcome, but neither do most people, and that would allow you to gain on your competition.

If you do go in this direction, I’d suggest doubling down. If Washington goes up early and controls things, you’re going to want correlated exposure. There are two ways to do this, and I think you can build two lineups to cover both bases — you either embrace the volume that this puts on the Bucs’ passing game and stack Baker Mayfield or you embrace the Tampa Bay dropback count by rostering Washington’s defense.

This is certainly a 4D chess way of approaching the slate this week, but if winning were easy, everyone would do it, right?

Bucky Irving, RB | TB (vs. WAS)

You’ve seen the highlights and heard the hype surrounding Bucky Irving. The Buccaneers were front-and-center last week in earning their playoff bid. There has been no shortage of coverage, yet it’s possible you’re not high enough on their rookie RB.

Soppe’s Wild Card RB rankings:

1. Saquon Barkley
2. Bucky Irving
3. Derrick Henry

Yes, he’s been that good. If you extend his last seven healthy games over a 17-game schedule, we are talking about a running back with 1,700 rushing yards, 12 rushing touchdowns, 56 receptions, and 493 receiving yards. That’s a stat line that only Edgerrin James (2000) and LaDaininian Tomlinson (2006) have ever achieved for a season.

Irving is taking the league by storm and is playing in the game with the highest total of the week. This season, the Commanders own the second-worst red-zone defense among teams still playing, struggles fueled by the lowest success rate against the run of this group.

Consider this: Washington allowed 49.6% more yards per RB carry before contact than the league average this season (only the Panthers were worse). Rachaad White is a name you know, but he’s not currently a threat to take much usage away from Irving. There’s nothing standing in the rookie’s way of continuing his run of dominance, something his price point doesn’t reflect ($1,200 cheaper than Derrick Henry on DraftKings).

His scrimmage yardage prop opened at 108.5 yards, and I’m not sure it’s nearly high enough. I’ve locked in an over on that number and, in a hedge of sorts, I bet he and Brian Robinson Jr. combine for over 134.5 rushing yards, thinking that the team playing with a lead has plenty of success on the ground.

Derrick Henry, RB | BAL (vs. PIT)

Too much pride in Pittsburgh?

Derrick Henry has produced 25.2% over expectations against the Steelers this season. While he is more than capable of doing that against any defensive structure, I find it odd that Pittsburgh loaded the box on just 38.5% of his career (the rest of the NFL: 50.3%).

Henry has produced 40.3% over expectations in three career postseason games; given the direction of things, running through worn-down defenses might be standard over the next month.

• Weeks 1-11: 37.6% of carries gained 5+ yards (11.7% gained 10+ yards)
• Weeks 12-18: 49.2% of carries gained 5+ yards (17.2% gained 10+ yards)

It shouldn’t be overlooked that Baltimore’s bye came five weeks after Pittsburgh’s. The Ravens are the more talented and physical team with less fatigue and a projected positive game script. There’s always the risk that this game is an ugly AFC North battle like we’ve seen in the past, but Henry is in a great spot, even against a strong defense that has already seen him twice.

Gus Edwards, RB | LAC (at HOU)

Gus Edwards has missed consecutive games with an ankle injury, and while we don’t have clarity on his status just yet, I think you can safely look elsewhere. The price point isn’t too prohibitive, but the profile comes with more risk than reward, even at a cheap price tag.

Edwards is averaging 31.2% fewer yards per carry before contact this season than last year with a declining elusive rating despite facing fewer loaded boxes. At best, you’re chasing a touchdown in a game with a total of 42.5 points from a player who lacks versatility and is at less than full strength.

In my opinion, J.K. Dobbins is the only way to play this backfield, and I’m not in a hurry to go in that direction, never mind his limited backup specialist.

Jaleel McLaughlin, RB | DEN (at BUF)

I’m going to do a few irresponsible things here to prove a point. Stick with me here.

In Year 2, Christian McCaffrey picked up 41.8% of his rushing yards after first contact and gained at least 10 yards on 14.2% of his carries.

In Year 2, Jaleel McLaughlin picked up 41.2% of his rushing yards after first contact and gained at least 10 yards on 14.2% of his carries.

Want some more propaganda? You’re in the right spot.

Since Week 12, McLaughlin’s 10+ yard carry rate was up to 18.5%, the highest in the league. The next players on that list among qualifiers:

2. Derrick Henry: 17.2%
3. Jahmyr Gibbs: 16.2%
4. Bijan Robinson: 14.6%

We clearly only have so much film to go on for McLaughlin, but he looks like more than just the best back in Denver. Sean Payton loves what Bo Nix brings to the table, but I don’t think getting into a shootout with Josh Allen is on the to-do list this week, furthering my belief that we could get a true breakout performance from this backfield against a Bills defense that ranks 23rd at preventing running back yardage before contact.

I’ve got him penciled into my first run of a DraftKings GPP lineup for the entire Wild Card slate:

QB: Jayden Daniels (at TB)
RB: Bucky Irving (vs. WAS)
RB: McLaughlin (at BUF)
WR: Ladd McConkey (at HOU)
WR: Cooper Kupp (vs. MIN)
WR: Marvin Mims (at BUF)
TE: Zach Ertz (at TB)
FLEX: Keon Coleman (vs. DEN)
D/ST: Eagles (vs. GB)

James Cook, RB | BUF (vs. DEN)

James Cook was one of the more valuable fantasy assets during the regular season (18 touchdowns), and while your instinct might be to fade him with the thought that Josh Allen will put on the cape now that we are in the postseason, I’d fight that thought.

There are six players since 2000 to record 18 carries and four catches in consecutive playoff games — Cook’s name is on that list (Curtis Martin, Arian Foster, LeSean McCoy, Christian McCaffrey, and Isiah Pacheco being the others). The touch floor has been stable this season, and given this offense’s potency, his volume holds significant value.

With Ray Davis and Ty Johnson not posing much of a threat, the carries are safe, and we’ve seen the passing-game role stabilize (3+ targets in six of his past seven). The stingy nature of this Denver defense is a clear concern (tops in success rate against the run and third-best red-zone unit), but I expect that to very much be accounted for in terms of ownership.

The way the pricing is laid out, Bucky Irving will garner more attention in this range and Josh Allen’s managers will naturally gravitate away from this backfield. You’ve got my green light on Cook in all formats, and I’ll be even if not ahead of the market when it comes to ranking him for 2025.

Javonte Williams, RB | DEN (at BUF)

Thanks, but no thanks. Javonte Williams’ role has been trending in the wrong direction for a while now, and what I saw last week was more than enough for me to have zero interest.

With their season on the line, Jaleel McLaughlin (41.7% share) out-snapped Williams (29.2%) in a meaningful way, and that was the game plan coming in — McLaughlin’s edge was 61.9% to 23.8% in the first quarter.

Williams has multiple receptions in all but two games this season, so if you think the Broncos aren’t competitive in the least, maybe he will get there, but that’s a thin path to success and not one I believe in. Williams is in the final year of his deal, so even if that game script were to play out, wouldn’t Sean Payton be more likely to get his younger options some playoff reps?

I’ll have exposure to plenty of players this weekend, but Williams will not be on that list.

Jaylen Warren, RB | PIT (at BAL)

There are two teams on this slate that I want as little exposure to as possible, and the Steelers are the AFC’s representative on that list (the Packers from the NFC).

That said, if I’m going to flirt with someone on this roster, it’s Jaylen Warren. He’s caught all nine of his targets against the Ravens this season, carrying the ball 21 times for 89 yards. He produced over expectations in both contests, but it’s not the production that has me moderately sold, it’s how I see this game playing out.

Warren vs. Ravens, 2024:

• Week 11 win: 33.8% snap share
• Week 16 loss: 66.7% snap share

If you’re like me and most of the country and believe that Baltimore dictates just about everything in this game, Warren is the piece that stands to gain the most, tough I’m still not regularly clicking his name when building out Wild Card DFS lineups.

J.K. Dobbins, RB | LAC (at HOU)

I think the question with J.K. Dobbins is less about buying him and more about roster construction.

• Tier 1 pricing: Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry
• Tier 2: Josh Jacobs, Kyren Williams, Joe Mixon, Bucky Irving, and James Cook
• Tier 3: Dobbins, Aaron Jones, Brian Robinson Jr.
• Tier 4: How lucky do you feel?

Dobbins is one of four running backs to enter the playoffs with at least 18 carries and a catch in both of his last two games (among Derrick Henry, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Bucky Irving). Gus Edwards missed both of those contests (ankle), and that has lessened the touch competition, something I’m willing to buy at this cost.

Los Angeles has shown us over the past two weeks that they are willing to feature Dobbins, and that promise in the projected game script puts him on my radar. Rostering Dobbins not only opens up the salary cap but gives you leverage off of what will be a very popular Ladd McConkey.

Dobbins has averaged 12.9 PPR points over the past two weeks, and that’s on the high end of what I’m expecting this week, viable production if you feel good about the pieces you can roster around him.

Joe Mixon, RB | HOU (vs. LAC)

The Texans are either managing Joe Mixon for this spot or are indirectly telling us something by not handing the ball to their starting running back more than 14 times in four straight games (and five of six).

Without high-end value, Mixon isn’t likely worth your precious DFS dollar (4.1 yards per carry this season without a carry gaining more than 10 yards in five of his past eight games). He’s not a zero in the passing game, but his catch rate is at a career low and his usage hasn’t changed following Tank Dell’s injury.

The Chargers allow a touchdown on a league-low 45% of red-zone trips this season (NFL average: 57.6%; playoff team average: 54.2%), which impacts their league-leading RB rushing score rate (1.2% of attempts).

If you think Mixon can get to the 84 carries that it takes to project a full rushing score against Los Angeles, yes, go ahead and lock him into lineups. Call me crazy, but I don’t see a rebound to the elite volume we were getting earlier in the season (there were 21.5 carry over/unders available in November), and I’m not sold that the quality of touches in this spot is especially high.

Josh Jacobs, RB | GB (at PHI)

Josh Jacobs has rushed for a touchdown in a franchise-record eight straight games and averaged 5.1 yards per carry over his past three. He’s been able to add value in the passing game, catching each of his past 13 targets, and is peaking at the perfect time

The Packers have fully committed to Jacobs being their offensive guiding light (third in rush rate over expectation this season), and it’s largely working. That said, there is some risk in this game situation with the Packers expected to trail.

Like every team, Green Bay prioritizes the pass when trailing. Their dropback rate is 15.3 percentage points higher when trailing than when ahead (league average difference: 14.7 percentage points), which certainly needs to be considered in this discussion.

Add to the projected game script the fact that these are the two highest-rush-rate teams in the league (fueling a bottom-10 pace), and I don’t think Jacobs has a great chance at averaging the 19.8 touches that he averaged per game this season.

Philadelphia allows a touchdown on just 17.5% of drives (third best in the NFL; league average: 22.7%), giving Jacobs one fewer path to success. I will not have much Green Bay exposure, be it in DFS or postseason-long formats, and Jacobs is the most expensive of the bunch.

Justice Hill, RB | BAL (vs. PIT)

Justice Hill has missed consecutive games, first with a concussion and now with an illness being mentioned in the most recent injury report.

His availability is important to the Ravens, but fantasy managers need not worry. The appeal of Hill’s skill set comes in a negative game script, something that rarely happens these days for Baltimore and is even less so when facing Pittsburgh – the last time they lost a game against the divisional rival by more than one possession was October of 2017.

If you think the road team controls this game, there’s low-end PPR value to chase should Hill be cleared to play (eight targets on 25 routes against the Steelers this season), but that’s an awfully risky way to structure a DFS roster.

Kimani Vidal, RB | LAC (at HOU)

Kimani Vidal was a popular sleeper/best ball name this summer, but things haven’t panned out, and nothing this team has done points to a change in role now that we are in the postseason.

Gus Edwards has been on the shelf over the past two weeks, but the team has opted to put more on the plate of Justin Herbert than anything attached to this run game. In those two contests, Vidal has been on the field for just 6.7% of Los Angeles’ offensive snaps and he’s done nothing to earn an uptick in usage (5.6% production below expectations).

The rookie is averaging 4.8 touches per game. That’s about what I have penciled in this week – nothing of substance for us.

Kyren Williams, RB | LAR (vs. MIN)

I’m not in love with Kyren Williams this week regarding efficiency or upside, but his raw volume is so overwhelming that he checks in as my RB4 and sits atop my second tier.

Let’s start with the good. Over this win streak, Williams is producing 11.2% above expectations. He’s a great player, but I’m encouraged because the offensive line is getting stronger at the perfect time (Williams is averaging 18.5% more yards per carry before contact over those games than he did previously).

Combine that with a role that ranks favorably for just about anyone (six missed games since last season and he still leads the league with 126 red-zone touches), and you could argue that Williams’ floor is the highest on the slate.

That’s great, but I don’t think the ceiling is there to help you ship some sort of big DFS tournament. In Week 8, it took him 23 carries to gain 97 yards against Brian Flores’ crew, consistent with what we’ve seen against good teams of late. Since that contest, he’s failed to gain yardage on 75% of his carries three times, and they all came against high-level competition.

• Week 8 vs. Vikings: 73.9%
• Week 12 vs. Eagles: 68.7%
• Week 14 vs. Bills: 72.4%

Minnesota is the fifth-best after-contact rush defense in the league; that can neutralize this offensive line’s growth. Williams is a fine play, but I don’t think his ceiling touches Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, or Bucky Irving’s this week.

Najee Harris, RB | PIT (at BAL)

Nothing about the direction of Pittsburgh’s offense generates optimism; the deeper you dive, the worse it gets.

I addressed my concerns with the passing game earlier, but it’s possible that I’m more worried about Najee Harris and the state of this run game. He’s struggled in two career playoff games (53% production below expectations), and I don’t see that changing against the best run defense in terms of yards gained by running backs after contact per carry this season.

Harris struggled in the two games against Baltimore this season (he achieved under 80% of his expectations in both games), and that was without the Ravens being overly aggressive. Consider this:

• Harris against the Ravens: 77.8% gain rate and 40.7% loaded box percentage
• Harris in all other games: 81.4% gain rate and 48.3% loaded box percentage

That’s a pretty damning trend, and with Harris’ tank running on E, I’m in full-fade mode

• Weeks 6-14: 4.2% production over expectation and 4.0 red-zone touches per game
• Weeks 15-18: 16.8% production below expectations and 2.0 red-zone touches per game

The Ravens are heavily favored for a reason, which has me ranking Jaylen Warren as the Pittsburgh back to have rostered if you’re going to this backfield.

Rachaad White, RB | TB (vs. WAS)

It’s never a bad time for a blind resume. Here are three production lines over the past three weeks:

• Player A: 15.7% of team rushing yards and 13.9 PPR points as a pass catcher
• Player B: 13.3% of team rushing yards and 19.9 PPR points as a pass catcher
• Player C: 7.8% of team rushing yards and 13.4 PPR points as a pass catcher

All of those stat lines look roughly the same, and none of them are overly appealing. I think we can agree on that. Rachaad White is clearly one of them based on the construct of this article – would he be even remotely on your radar if not for a strong 2023 fantasy season?

The answer should be no.

This is the Bucky Irving show and things are going just fine under that plan – Tampa Bay is the third-highest-scoring offense since returning from their Week 11 bye.

• Player A: Hassan Haskins
• Player B: Javonte Williams
• Player C: White

Ray Davis, RB | BUF (vs. DEN)

Ray Davis exploded in one game as the lead back, but with James Cook healthy and the rookie seemingly hitting something of a wall, there’s not nearly enough meat on this bone to have my interest in any format.

Over the last four weeks, 30.3% of Davis’ carries have failed to gain yardage. For a player living in the 5-8 touch range weekly, a trend like that is more reason than I realistically need to look just about anywhere else. If I’m paying down this week, it’ll be at the WR or TE position — I’m not getting cute with a player like Davis against the NFL’s fourth-best run defense by EPA.

Saquon Barkley, RB | PHI (vs. GB)

Saquon Barkley is my top-ranked fantasy RB this week. Saquon Barkley is the most expensive running back on the slate. Saquon Barkley has been the best running back in the NFL this season (league-high 10 top-10 finishes).

With enough in terms of value in the WR pool, I think you can make a Barkley lineup work without having to get too crazy. Personally, I’m not.

That’s nothing really against Barkley as much as it is my preference for spending up elsewhere and living in the middle tier at running back. This Packers defense is viable, and while I don’t think they stop the All-Pro, slowing him down is all it takes given the expensive price tag.

Green Bay owns the best run defense among playoff teams in terms of running back yards gained before contact per carry this season, and they did hold Barkley to 5+ yards on just 33.3% of his carries back in Week 1, the fifth-best defensive showing against him this season.

With Jaire Alexander out, the Eagles may pick on this secondary instead of running into their solid front. Even if that’s the case, Barkley could produce enough down the stretch to pay off his price tag — heck, even with limited efficiency in his team debut, he racked up 33.2 PPR points against this defense the first time around.

Wild Card Fantasy Football Wide Receivers

A.J. Brown, WR | PHI (vs. GB)

A.J. Brown is dealing with a bit of a lingering knee issue, though reports have yet to label it as anything serious. Given that Week 18 meant nothing for the Eagles, I’m not reading into his inactive status as anything more than management and fully expect him to suit up as Philadelphia looks to make a run.

His counting numbers are essentially in line with what we’ve come to expect (80-90 yards per game with a score every other game) and the big plays continue to be there (40+ yard grab in five of his 13 games). The consistent volume and downfield usage propelled him to a career-best 3.0 yards per route this season, something that was made possible thanks to a 5-119-1 stat line in Brazil against these Packers to open the season (34.5% target share).

With Jaire Alexander on the shelf, this Green Bay defense features moving pieces that aren’t exactly well-equipped to deal with a versatile offense like what Philadelphia brings to the table. Sam Darnold carving them up in Week 17 was one thing, but Caleb Williams having no issue in force-feeding his top threat the ball last weekend (DJ Moore caught nine of 10 targets for 86 yards and a score) is another.

The Packers are a popular upset pick for this round and in the NFC playoff picture as a whole. I don’t see it. If you’re of that belief, you avoid a player like Brown, but with that thought lingering, the odds of you getting an alpha receiver on the team with the second-best odds to represent the conference in New Orleans at a minor discount are there.

I’m in!

Christian Watson, WR | GB (at PHI)

Matt LaFleur speculated following the Week 18 loss to the Bears that he wasn’t “super confident” that Christian Watson would be available in the short term after suffering a knee injury and he was right – the 25-year-old tore his ACL and will likely miss the beginning of next season.

Watson has struggled to regain the form he showcased for a brief moment as a rookie. In Weeks 11-13 of 2022, he rattled off a pair of 100-yard games with seven touchdown receptions on 27 targets — since then, he has had three 100-yard games and seven touchdown catches on his résumé across 131 targets.

Only time will tell when it comes to how productive he can be as he progresses through rehab, but in the short term, Dontayvion Wicks projects as the next man up. When comparing his profile this season with Watson on/off the field, he has the potential to give this offense the type of deep threat they need access to if they are going to upset the second-seeded Eagles.

Philadelphia boasts the second-lowest opponent completion percentage on deep passes, and that makes stretching the field an uphill battle for Jordan Love without Watson. Still, Wicks has shown enough to think that he can help fill the void.

Cooper Kupp, WR | LAR (vs. MIN)

There’s no two ways about it – the past three games for Cooper Kupp (Weeks 15-17) have been an abject disaster. He’s turned 67 routes into just four catches and 53 yards on nine targets, fueling thoughts that Father Time took some sort of turbo boost and tracked him down at hyper speed.

I’m not so sure. At least, not for this week. We can deal with the future as we get closer, but I’m not hesitating to call his number in DFS contests this week, especially if the ownership shakes out in our favor.

Minnesota is the most blitz-heavy defense in the NFL (38.6%) after pacing the league last season. In 2022, before Brian Flores took over this unit, they ranked 23rd – safe to say it’s not an accident. Both Puka Nacua and Kupp have been outstanding when Matthew Stafford is blitzed, but that’s the status quo for Nacua. For Kupp? This is the situation he needs to be in.

• Blitzed: 41.4% production over expectation, 2.4 points per target, 3.8 yards per route
• Not blitzed: 11% production below expectation, 1.5 points per target, 1.5 yards per route

If you want to venture into the betting markets, we can get even a little more creative. This general path is likely to land me on Kupp overs when yardage and reception lines post, but the touchdown numbers are up and have an early sprinkle from me (+150 anytime, +1000 first). Flores is aggressive the second he gets out of bed, but it’s amplified at the beginning of halves, a time when he has the chance to scheme up a rested unit and dictate the tempo.

• Blitz rate in the first and third quarters: 40.8%
  Blitz rate in the second and fourth quarters: 37.3%

Kupp earned eight targets and scored in the Week 8 meeting with Minnesota, and I could see a similar usage pattern this week. Let’s get on the board early and go from there!

Courtland Sutton, WR | DEN (at BUF)

Courtland Sutton has scored 18 times on 225 targets over the past two seasons (previous two seasons: four touchdowns on 207 targets). Touchdowns can be fluky on a game-to-game basis, nevermind season-to-season, but the usage trends are very much in his favor, and that is what I’m comfortable with in this profile

This season, Sutton has seen a career-high 17 end-zone targets and has been thrown at on 31.8% of his red-zone routes (up from 23.3% last season). This offense is better than we could have imagined and they are routinely trusting their WR1 with finishing drives, something that makes the spike in scoring rate much more sustainable.

And it’s only getting better.

During the second half of the season, Sutton has seen 11 end-zone targets, a number that trails only triple-crown winner Ja’Marr Chase, future Hall of Famer Davante Adams, and maybe the best receiver in the sport in Justin Jefferson. The Bills are an average red-zone defense that allows touchdowns on 24.6% of all drives (22nd), giving us every reason to think that Denver’s WR1 can once again produce.

All the signs look great, including the projected game script, but this is the spot where I’m getting my leverage. I’m not confident that any member of Denver garners a ton of ownership. Thus, I’m doubling down in a non-correlated way for my upside lineup and it doesn’t include their alpha target earner.

DeVonta Smith, WR | PHI (vs. GB)

DeVonta Smith led the Eagles in catches when these two teams played in Week 1 (7-84-0 on eight targets). That was the beginning of a nice run to open the season (four touchdowns in seven games with over 60 receiving yards in six of them).

Once we got comfortable with him, however, things went sideways during a midseason swoon. That wasn’t a fun stretch for season-long managers, but we appear to be out of it now, and that means you can deploy him with confidence.

• Weeks 9-11: 16% target rate
• Weeks 14-17: 28% target rate

The missed time in the middle was the result of a hamstring injury that appears to be very much in the past. Not only is he back to earning looks at a high rate, but he’s moving down the field like what we’ve seen in previous years (Week 17 vs. Dallas: 14.2-yard aDOT). I prefer A.J. Brown at his cost this week, but with the Packers continuing to work around the Jaire Alexander absence, there’s certainly a path to Smith having a big performance.

He’s a top-10 receiver for me this week.

Dontayvion Wicks, WR | GB (at PHI)

Dontayvion Wicks was held without a catch when these teams met in Brazil, but the math has changed since.

Christian Watson (ACL) is done for the season, and that opens up a role that the Packers will need if they are going to pull off an upset that many seem to think is possible. This season, 72.9% of Wicks’ routes have been run alongside Watson, making the scraping of data for the other 27.1% a small sample, but it’s all we have when trying to look at this specific situation.

With Watson off the field, Wicks’ aDOT has spiked by 26.7%. Those deep looks are his path to success in most matchups, but probably not on Sunday – the Eagles are the best defense against long passes in terms of yards per attempt and yards per completion (over 11% better than the league average in both of those categories).

That very much caps the upside of Wicks in the Wild Card Round, but it doesn’t completely rule him out. His involvement in the red zone has been much greater with Watson off the field (12.7% of his targets, up from 1.8% with him sharing the perimeter role).

The target distribution in Green Bay has been close to impossible to forecast weekly this season. Removing one name from the mix gives us a little more clarity, but it’s important to not confuse “more clarity” with “clarity.”

There are still plenty of names capable of sucking up usage in this offense, and the Packers’ clearest path to success is a heavy dose of Josh Jacobs. I’m not tempting fate by going to this passing game in most of my builds.

George Pickens, WR | PIT (at BAL)

Well, that was a performance. George Pickens was a disaster last week, posting the rare stat line that featured more catches than yards and more drops than both of those categories put together. For the season, he’s put nine balls on the ground. You could argue that number is higher depending on how stingy you want to be with your data tracking.

There are two ways to look at the Pickens case – I’ll present them and you can elect to choose your own adventure.

On one hand, he’s cleared 85 air yards in seven of his past eight games and is the clear top target in an offense for a team that is an 8.5/9.5-point underdog. He has two games back from injury and is facing a defense that is far more stingy on the ground than through the air.

On the other, he’s managed to turn 13 targets into just 50 yards after missing three straight games with a nagging hamstring injury. None of those 13 looks have come in the red zone and with Baltimore’s running game, Pittsburgh’s possession count could very much be kept in check.

I tend to side with the latter, though I will admit that a Pickens breakout week is far from impossible. We are looking at one of the hinge players for Wild Card weekend – whatever stance you make, I’d make it a strong one and let the chips fall where they may with the other pieces on your roster.

Jalen McMillan, WR | TB (vs. WAS)

I compared Jalen McMillan to Amon-Ra St. Brown in this space last week and he went out and lived up to expectations with the NFC South on the line (5-74-1 against the Saints).

By no means am I victory-lapping. The kid has been great for a month now, and I didn’t exactly take the stance that he would become St. Brown so much as highlight his path of a similar trajectory, but he’s every bit ready to produce at a consistent level.

He only saw one target way back in Week 1 when these teams squared off, but he made it count (32-yard touchdown), and he should get plenty of chances to make splash plays this week.

There is, however, one risk factor that has me nervous. Marshon Lattimore has done a great job blanketing Mike Evans in the past. If Washington operates with that as a defensive game plan, there’s a world in which McMillan is seeing a whole lot of (defensive) attention.

That thought process is enough to have me moving off of him more than I’d like, but this is a tough slate with a huge middle-tier of receivers. If you want to load up on three receivers in this price range and hope that two pay off in a big way, I have no problem going in this direction. But the way I’m building, I haven’t landed on much in the way of McMillan exposure.

It’s a terrifying life to live.

Jayden Reed, WR | GB (at PHI)

I was pretty firm with my stance this preseason that Jayden Reed was set to be Green Bay’s unquestioned WR1 with a handful of players fighting for scraps behind him.

That simply hasn’t happened.

Heck, I was in trouble with that call from the jump. When these two teams played in Week 1, there was no real separation in the receiver profiles, something that hasn’t really changed.

Week 1 vs. Eagles, 2024:

• Romeo Doubs: 33 routes and 12.6 expected PPR points
• Christian Watson: 27 routes and 11.1 expected PPR points
• Reed: 27 routes and 10.5 expected PPR points

Reed did haul in a 70-yard touchdown in the second quarter of that game to give him the edge in actual fantasy points, but the split role has been more sticky than spike plays like that.

Watson will miss this game and the entire postseason, but Dontayvion Wicks looms as the next man up and this Packers offense is counting on the running game more now than at any point during the season. The Eagles are the best playoff team in terms of yards allowed per slot pass this season, making Reed’s already iffy role that much more risky.

Paying down for Tucker Kraft to clear the tight end position might be the play here. Green Bay projects to be in a negative game script and if you believe that, you’re going to want some exposure to this passing game. But with the target hierarchy still unsettled, I’m having a hard time going there with any level of confidence.

John Metchie III, WR | HOU (vs. LAC)

ADD

From a roster-building perspective, pass catchers as slight underdogs playing in a weather-proof situation are going to be appealing. John Metchie III checks all of those boxes and he’s even seen his usage tick in the right direction over the past month.

• Weeks 15-18: targeted on 23.2% of routes
• Weeks 1-14: targeted on 12.2% of routes

On top of having only a 67-target NFL sample size for Metchie, he entered the week with head injury concerns. He’s basically free in all formats and that is the leg your standing on – not that he himself projects well, but that the discount on him buys you flexibility elsewhere.

If that’s your goal, I’d rather go to the NFC (Packers, Commanders, or Rams). I don’t love Houston’s chances in this game, and if we are talking about a single game of usage, I’m not sure this is the spot for Metchie. The Chargers have given up some production to receivers this season, but it’s largely been by the big names who get weighed down with targets.

Top-scoring WRs vs. LAC, 2024:

• Mike Evans: 36.9 points in Week 15
• Tee Higgins: 29.8 points in Week 11
• Jakobi Meyers: 27.3 points in Week 18
• Ja’Marr Chase: 26.5 points in Week 11
• Calvin Ridley: 25.4 points in Week 10

If the Texans advance to the divisional round, I think it’s a lot of Nico Collins early and a lot of Joe Mixon late. Metchie’s development is interesting, but it’s something that I’m more taking note of for redraft in 2025, not for playoff leagues.

Jordan Addison, WR | MIN (at LAR)

Jordan Addison earned just three targets and put just 22 yards on the board in Week 8 against these Rams (27 routes), but that was before his breakout. Since Week 11, only eight receivers have scored more PPR points than Addison – that comes with Justin Jefferson functioning at full capacity (he’s WR6 over that stretch).

The Rams are the worst playoff team against the pass in terms of yards per attempt, something that could allow Addison to break the slate should he find himself on the end of a long play or two, giving you leverage on all of the Jefferson teams.

While he seems to have established himself as a suitable Robin to Jefferson’s Batman, there is no denying the risk. T.J. Hockenson’s playing time is on the rise, Jalen Nailor is still around, and we did just see him produce a dud in the most important game of the season (one catch on six targets for zero yards in Detroit). He’s far from bust-proof, but he’s priced in the George Pickens/Zay Flowers tier. That’s a fine spot to land if your roster build puts you there.
Full disclosure, I’m paying up a touch for Terry McLaurin or Cooper Kupp before going this direction.

Joshua Palmer, WR | LAC (at HOU)

If you’re building a single lineup for a big tournament, I could see going in this direction. We all seem to like the Chargers and the trajectory of Justin Herbert, but Joshua Palmer isn’t going to be popular at all given the recent play of Quentin Johnston and the outstanding rookie season from Ladd McConkey.

On the surface, this appears to be a tough spot. The Chargers are a road favorite and only an average pass rate over expectation offense, a combination that could make volume a problem for all involved. Palmer is also facing a defense that finished the regular season ranked top-six in deep ball passer rating, completion percentage, and yards per attempt.

That’s a pretty damning case against him and why I’m passing this week, but I do think there is enough hope for souls braver than I to go down this path.

Palmer has seen multiple deep targets in seven of 15 games and you could argue that those looks are as valuable now as ever given how his quarterback is playing. While the Texans’ numbers against such throws (generally) look great; when they get burned, they really get burned – they allow the second most yards per deep completion.

Palmer has averaged 15+ yards per catch in consecutive seasons and is as capable as anyone in this offense of ripping off a play that changes the game. Like I said, I’m not betting on it, but I could see how you get there. If you want to build a unique roster with big win equity for this week, he at least deserves a look.

Justin Jefferson, WR | MIN (at LAR)

Arguably the best receiver in the sport is going to do best-receiver-in-the-sport-type things more often than not. I could tell you that, in Weeks 1-9, Justin Jefferson scored 33.8% more PPR points than expected based on his target diet and while he’s still on the plus side of things since, his +5.3% is still symbolic of a struggle by his lofty standards. That’s true and maybe that scares you.

For me, that feels like spending too much time in front of a database, something I am 100% guilty of. Jefferson has posted a target rate north of 25% in four straight seasons. When a receiver has seen that sort of involvement against the Rams, he’s had a field day (20.4 PPR PPG).

We got an 8-115-0 stat line from Jefferson in Week 8 against these Rams, a game in which he earned a 39.1% target share. I have no concerns about his ability to get open in any matchup. The fact that we have visual confirmation of his ability to do so in this spot only confirms that.

If you wanted to label Jefferson in a tier unto himself this weekend at the position, I wouldn’t fight you. Rostering him requires some creativity, but there are enough value pieces to make it work.

In playoff-long formats, I lean Amon-Ra St. Brown and A.J. Brown over Jefferson, as I have both of those teams penciled in for an edge in terms of games played, but it’s awfully tight at the top of the board, especially without the AFC having someone I feel comfortable putting in that conversation.

Keon Coleman, WR | BUF (vs. DEN)

The Broncos ranked second in the league in pressure rate this season and are the only team inside the top five to qualify for the postseason. Could that open the door for a Keon Coleman breakout? His target rate is the least impacted when Josh Allen is under duress among Bills receivers, and the Broncos have quietly allowed the eighth-highest completion percentage on deep balls since Week 11.

Bills pass catchers’ target splits with Allen, 2024:

• Coleman: 16.3% when pressured vs. 18.2% when not
• Khalil Shakir: 21.2% when pressured vs. 31.3% when not
• Amari Cooper: 12.8% when pressured vs. 29.3% when not
• Dalton Kincaid: 21% when pressured vs. 32.2% when not

I’m nothing if not a sharer of information, so while I’m not labeling Coleman as the next DK Metcalf, the profiles are similar.

Metcalf’s profile, 2024:

• Second-round pick standing 6’4” tall
• 18.8% regular season on-field target share (13.7 aDOT)
• TD on 7% of targets

Coleman’s profile, 2024:

• Second-round pick standing 6’4” tall
• 17.6% regular season on-field target share (15.5 aDOT)
• TD on 7% of targets

That’s at least interesting, isn’t it? Metcalf, like Coleman, had a mid-season explosion game with 120+ yards and a 50-yard reception while earning double-digit targets in the regular season finale.

Metcalf’s introduction to the postseason was a 7-160-1 showing in Philadelphia. Asking for that is a lot, but I like the way things line up for the 33rd-overall pick.

Khalil Shakir, WR | BUF (vs. DEN)

My initial thought with this matchup was that I’d be in on Khalil Shakir. The idea that he’d likely be able to avoid Patrick Surtain II while in the slot and that Denver’s second-ranked run defense (by EPA) could force Buffalo to supplement the traditional ground game with short, quick-hitting passes had me intrigued.

Upon further review, the call on the field has been overturned.

The Broncos are the best defense against the slot in terms of touchdown rate and rank third in opponent passer rating when throwing there. Now, they are only average when it comes to completion percentage and yards per attempt, so maybe there is a path for Shakir to pay off his price tag, but I don’t see much in the way of a ceiling for him.

You just read why I’m high on Keon Coleman as a value play this week, and I’m only willing to take on this Denver defense in so many ways. Shakir’s catch rate was what made him a special fantasy asset for the better part of 25 straight weeks, but the road has gotten a little bumpy of late.

• Weeks 1-9: 93.3% catch rate
• Weeks 10-17: 61.8% catch rate

If we can no longer take efficiency as a given, I’m not willing to do the mental gymnastics it takes to roster a player like Shakir in this specific matchup. That’s a shame because I think he’s a solid player who means a lot to a team that should win. Unfortunately, we have to make some tough calls in a six-game slate – leaving him out of my lineups is one of them.

Ladd McConkey, WR | LAC (at HOU)

Ladd McConkey finished his rookie season with three straight games north of 85 receiving yards. His six such games match the franchise record for a rookie (2013 Keenan Allen) and this very much feels like only the beginning for a receiver who already is showing the type of route-running chops of a player five years his senior.

I love the versatility we’ve seen from McConkey this season, though I still think his ability to shake free in a flash is his greatest asset. In six of the top-10 pass catcher performances against the Texans this season, the player has posted a single-digit aDOT.

What I like most about Los Angeles’ WR1 is how his value doesn’t hinge on the game script. Obviously, his volume could take off should the Chargers fall behind, but with a 73.2% catch rate this season, he is a safety valve that can be used to help ice the game as well.

You’re not going to find me fading McConkey much over the next five years. I don’t plan on doing it this postseason, either.

Marvin Mims Jr., WR | DEN (at BUF)

It’s not what you said, it’s how you said it.

We’ve all heard it and we all fear what comes next – luckily, the fantasy football version is a positive. For Marvin Mims Jr. in this Sean Payton offense, it’s not how often he is on the field, but how he’s used. He ran 146 routes this season, just three more than a season ago, but he generated 22 more targets and scored 47.1 more fantasy points.

We often preach patience with young receivers throughout their rookie season, but considering that growth is not linear at the position, why not extend that courtesy into Year 2 with a changing offensive structure?

Mims has been coming on in a big way and played a critical role in the Broncos qualifying for the postseason … and I think he could keep the good times rolling!

The Bills own a bottom-five blitz rate and a bottom-10 pressure rate this season (their pressure rate sits at 32.5%, the lowest among playoff teams). Not to be overly dramatic but Mims turns into an All-Pro receiver when Bo Nix isn’t sped up.

Yards per route run when their QB is not pressured, 2024:

• CeeDee Lamb: 2.70
• Malik Nabers: 2.66
• Justin Jefferson: 2.64
• Mims: 2.62
• Drake London: 2.61
• Tee Higgins: 2.54

The Bills rank 20th in opponent deep completion percentage (45%) and 21st in deep touchdown rate (7.3%), leaving the door open for Mims to make the type of splash play that will be needed for the road team to pull off the upset.

The risk goes without saying – the next game Mims runs 15 routes in a Nix game will be his first. We can force Sean Payton’s hand to put him on the field, but we can be impressed with the chances he has gotten: 28 catches (32 targets) on his 84 routes since Week 10.

The Broncos rank sixth in pass rate over expectation this season after checking in at 24th in Payton’s first season. It’s almost like having a hand-picked QB to run your system helps, go figure. I expect that “expectations” part of that metric to work in our favor with Denver opening as an 8.5-point underdog.

There’s no flier I like more in Wild Card DFS contests this week. For playoff formats, the math changes a bit, as you’d have to like Denver to advance more than I do, so tread lightly there. In weekly GPP formats, by all means, shoot your shot!

Mike Evans, WR | TB (vs. WAS)

It took some doing, but we got Mike Evans to his 1,000 yards last weekend, and he is very much trending in the right direction to make an impact in both Wild Card and postseason-long formats.

I find that players like this are the ones who swing those extended events. He’s a clear star, but with his team being involved in a coin-flip first game, there’s not the same level of excitement that a player like A.J. Brown generates, a similar player with a greater chance to advance.

Evans is the top-scoring PPR receiver since Week 13 who qualified for the playoffs, thanks in large part to earning 9.8 targets per game over that stretch. Based on his résumé, I see no reason to think that changes this week – 12.3% production over expectation for his playoff career with 25+ points in three of his past five postseason games.

If you want to get a little more specific in slicing the data, he’s thrived as a playoff favorite (23.5 PPG compared to 12.9 as an underdog) and that’s the situation he finds himself in this week.

Dragging down his DFS ownership number is the matchup with Marshon Lattimore. The two did battle on a twice-annual basis while Lattimore was with the New Orleans Saints, and the matchups have largely gone the way of the talented cornerback.

Evans’ career splits:

• Evans vs. Saints: 79 air yards per game with a 17.5% on-field target share
• Evans vs. the rest of the NFL: 125.8 air yards per game with a 24.3% on-field target share

Those numbers are enough to have me leery, but if I see a low enough ownership projection entering the weekend, I’d be willing to throw caution to the wind with a few lineups with the thought being that divisional games simply play differently. This version of Baker Mayfield is capable of keeping his WR1 fed, even in a difficult spot.

That said, I’m more likely to attack this game on the ground. I think the Bucs can control this game, and if that’s going to be the case, we should get a heavy dose of Bucky Irving. Personally, I like that angle with the Commanders passing attack rostered on the other end, though that plays into my projection for how this game will go.

If you like the Commanders, flipping my build on its head with a Mayfield-Evans-Brian Robinson core is plenty reasonable.

Mike Williams, WR | PIT (at BAL)

I just can’t shake this feeling that Mike Tomlin is going to use his voodoo magic to unlock Mike Williams at the perfect time. He did it in his debut with the team, but we’ve seen very little since (yet to reach a 43% snap share with the Steelers and that includes a three-game absence from George Pickens).

That said, since “vibes” aren’t how I build my fantasy rosters, I can’t responsibly recommend going in this direction. Williams has seen just 13 targets since joining the team. With those looks carrying a 19.5-yard aDOT with them, we aren’t exactly talking about the highest percentage of opportunities (though he has caught nine of them).

If you want to roll the dice on Williams, bet his longest reception prop when it pops up (sportsbooks didn’t include any lines on him when they released their opening numbers, something that should tell you all you need to know about the lack of stability in his role).

His vintage catch on the sideline last week is enough for me to maintain my thought that there is some “waiting for the right time” plan around using him, but there’s more risk than I’m willing to take on when it comes to building a DFS lineup this week when swinging and missing isn’t an option.

Nico Collins, WR | HOU (vs. LAC)

Get in, get out, get on with life.

Nico Collins made a cameo last week, enforced his will (four catches for 32 yards and a touchdown), and started looking ahead to the postseason. We are talking about one of the very best pass-catchers in the game. If his ownership in weekly leagues doesn’t reflect that, I’ll be ready to pounce.

The postseason-long drafts are a little more tricky, as many are picking the Chargers to win this game on the road (including yours truly). That adds obvious risk to a profile that you will have to spend up early on, but it also creates a leverage spot, as the Charger pieces are coming off the board a touch earlier than you’d expect given the general optimism that they could make a run (they are the AFC Packers).

By selecting Collins in a format like that, you not only get his upside, but you get production that would come at the expense of the managers who go with Justin Herbert, Ladd McConkey, or any other Bolt. From a game theory point of view, I like the idea of drafting Collins at his cost.

This team isn’t going anywhere without him putting big numbers on the board, so if you’re essentially betting on them to win a game or two, rostering their star receiver is the right way to play that.

Puka Nacua, WR | LAR (vs. MIN)

CeeDee Lamb, Ja’Marr Chase, and Amon-Ra St. Brown are the only receivers with more yards and a higher catch rate than Puka Nacua over the past two seasons. He’s pretty clearly taken the league by storm and has essentially put to bed the idea that this is a split WR1 role – he’s the alpha in Los Angeles and everyone falls in line behind him.

He was ejected early in the first meeting with the Seahawks – all he has done since is post a 142.4-catch pace. We’ve seen the Rams ramp up their desire to get him the ball. Be it a recent surge in rushing attempts or an aDOT that is down 14.9% from his historic rookie season, they are making it their weekly mission to funnel opportunities his way. That’s all we as fantasy managers can realistically ask for.

The dip in the average depth of target is what has me most encouraged in this specific spot. We saw him haul in seven of nine targets for 106 yards against the blitz-happy Vikings back in Week 8. A similar level of success wouldn’t surprise me this week given how little time it takes for him to separate from coverage.

One of my takes from earlier is that I like this spot even more for Kupp and I stand by that. Nacua’s price tag on DraftKings is 18.8% higher. While I do believe he’s the clear No. 1, I still believe that Kupp can thrive in a spot like this. If you like the Rams to pull off the upset, go ahead and grab Nacua in your postseason formats, but in the scope of Wild Card weekend, I’m embracing the discount and rolling with Kupp.

Quentin Johnston, WR | LAC (at HOU)

Here comes Quentin Johnston.

In a game they clearly wanted to win last week to set up this Wild Card matchup (as opposed to traveling to Baltimore), Johnston accounted for 46.4% of Justin Herbert’s completions, gashing Vegas’ secondary at will.

Sure, there’s a reason that the Raiders are planning for the draft and not a game this week, but it’s hard to have success like that at the professional level, and he did it while Ladd McConkey was his normal productive self (95 yards on eight targets). That explosion (13-186-0) was clearly the highlight of his career up to this point, though he had been trending in the right direction for the past month.

• Weeks 1-14: targeted on 19.7% of routes
• Weeks 15-18: targeted on 29.5% of routes

What we can expect in this game is likely something in the middle of those two percentages, and that might be enough to encourage me to get some contrarian exposure against the defense that allows passing touchdowns at the highest rate among the remaining teams.

McConkey is going to be the popular piece from Los Angeles, and he should be. Heck, I could see J.K. Dobbins pulling in some nice ownership as well after proving his health (18 carries in Week 18) and the expected game script leaning in his favor.

Johnston is a big body capable of making a single target worth your while — the recent usage trends are icing on the cake. I’m interested in DFS this week and very interested in the later stages of playoff-long leagues, with a Chargers run through January not being a crazy thought.

Rashod Bateman, WR | BAL (vs. PIT)

Rashod Bateman saved you if you were forced to go in this direction for the Week 16 meeting between these two teams with a 14-yard touchdown, but three catches on eight targets across two regular season matchups (-0.67 EPA per target) isn’t exactly the type of form you love to see.

The Steelers proved themselves as the best defense in the league when it comes to getting off the field on third downs this regular season, and secondary pieces like Bateman are the ones who end up feeling that the most. Baltimore’s WR2 continues to lose value on the fringes the deeper you dive.

Lamar Jackson threw a play-action touchdown pass in both Pittsburgh games this season, averaging 10.1 yards per attempt when pulling the ball back out from the belly of a back. In theory, you’d think that such a play structure would allow Bateman to earn targets at an increased rate, buying him time to work his way down the field, but that simply hasn’t been the case.

Ravens pass catchers’ play-action target rates, 2024:

• Zay Flowers: 34.8%
• Mark Andrews: 31.5%
• Charlie Kolar: 28%
• Nelson Agholor: 21.4%
• Isaiah Likely: 21.2%
• Bateman: 20.2%

Maybe Todd Monken pulls out all the stops in the third meeting, but the two previous matchups along with the overall 17-game data set from the regular season have me confident in passing on Bateman in all formats.

Should Flowers be sidelined, Bateman’s value obviously ticks up, but considering that I am below market in the first place with his ability to thrive in this system, my ranking/projection isn’t going to surpass what the market does in this instance, keeping me uninvested.

Robert Woods, WR | HOU (vs. LAC)

When Tank Dell went down, we wondered who would fill the void.

Three weeks later, we are still searching for answers.

Robert Woods saw six targets in that Chiefs game where Dell was injured, with the team essentially operating in panic mode and trusting the 32-year-old with over 1,000 NFL targets to figure things out. However, we’ve heard little from him since (30 routes, five targets, four catches, and 60 yards).

The decline is nothing unique to Woods at this point on the age curve. He was targeted on 18% of routes last season, and that dropped to 15.3% this season with a nearly identical aDOT — in essence, there’s nothing tangible to result in this sort of decline outside of the natural progression.

Without volume, you need dangerous looks. Good luck. Woods has been targeted on 9.7% of red-zone routes (down from 19.2% last season, never mind 25.5% in his final season with the Titans). If you want to get cheap exposure to this offense, it is John Metchie III or, dare I say it, Diontae Johnson.

Romeo Doubs, WR | GB (at PHI)

Romeo Doubs’ profile is starting to get very interesting, especially if you think the Packers can make some noise in the NFC. Now, it should be noted that Doubs was a late add to the Week 18 injury report and ultimately missed the game with an illness, though the Packers were playing for positioning and not their postseason lives in that game.

Packers WRs’ air yards per game since Week 12:

• Doubs: 75 yards
• Christian Watson: 74.3 yards
• Dontayvion Wicks: 42.2 yards
• Jayden Reed: 33.3 yards

We know that Watson is out for the remainder of the season and that Doubs led this team in targets when these teams kicked off their seasons in Brazil. He’s out-scored Reed in three of their past four games together, and while the DFS industry has priced the two next to one another, I expect ownership to either pay up a touch (DeVonta Smith) or down a few hundred dollars (Jalen McMillan).

This is a nice buying window, and those are hard to find in a six-game slate.

Terry McLaurin, WR | WAS (at TB)

Terry McLaurin caught 13 touchdown passes during the regular season, more than his previous two best seasons combined. He’s been nothing short of special. Among the 35 receivers with 100 targets this season, he led the way in production relative to expectation this season (+32.2%).

The Falcons elected to cut off their nose despite their face and make it their mission to slow McLaurin down — they won the battle, but not the war.

McLaurin was held to just one catch, but the Commanders still won. If you remove that very aggressive defensive game plan, his production jumps to +39.6%, a rate that would be the second-best for a qualified receiver since 2016 (2023 Brandon Aiyuk holds the crown).

The Bucs don’t have a corner like A.J. Terrell Jr., nor have they shown the propensity to defend as the Falcons did in that Week 17 matchup. The bankable volume in the game with the highest projected point total should have McLaurin garnering as much ownership as anyone at the position.

From a game theory point of view, I think there’s something to a Jayden Daniels stack that doesn’t include McLaurin, but that’s more a conversation for huge contests that require creativity. If you’re strictly looking for what an optimizer is going to spit out, McLaurin is going to fit in most lineups this week.

And if you’re like me and believe Washington can pull off the minor upset, he’s a strong play in playoff-long formats as well.

Zay Flowers, WR | BAL (vs. PIT)

Zay Flowers suffered a knee injury over the weekend and is considered to be truly questionable at this point. (John Harbaugh was vague when asked, labeling his WR1 as “day-to-day.”)

It goes without saying that you’re monitoring this situation, but with the Ravens playing on Saturday, you should have all the information you need when it comes to setting a DFS lineup.

For playoff-long formats, I’d keep an eye on things as long as possible, but your instinct is going to fade any uncertain situation. I don’t have a problem with that, but it’s also not unique. If Flowers’ status is TBD when you’re drafting, his ADP is going to sink, and it’s on you to determine when the right time to pounce is.

I love the player, but not the Wild Card matchup. If you think Baltimore advances, then we are in a buy situation because I do like how Flowers’ skill set plays in a likely matchup with the Bills.

For this weekend, we have two games of data when it comes to how Baltimore’s offense wants to utilize its WR1 in this specific spot, and, to be honest, I don’t love it.

Flowers posted a 14+ yard aDOT in both Steelers games during the regular season, something that is very much outside of his normal usage pattern (three such games all season when not facing Pittsburgh). Those targets, naturally, come with more risk, which was reflected in his 50% catch rate across those two games (otherwise: 65.7%).

The more you dive into the target data, the more bizarre things get. We are looking at the smallest of samples, but a 19.5-yard aDOT from the slot doesn’t happen by accident (all other games: 6.6-yard aDOT from the slot). If I’m investing in Flowers in any given week, I’m doing it with the understanding that I’m betting on efficiency.

I’m not betting on splash plays; Rashod Bateman does that.

I’m not betting on touchdowns; Derrick Henry and Mark Andrews do that.

If I’m not confident in the type of routes that are going to be run or the health, how can I justify going in this direction? Add in the fact that this is expected to be a positive game script for Baltimore, and I’m having a hard time seeing Flowers being worth the risk this week.

Wild Card Fantasy Football Tight Ends

Cade Otton, TE | TB (vs. WAS)

If you’ve been reading all season, thanks! If that’s the case, you’re likely not looking for hot Cade Otton takes — you know where I stand.

If not, thanks for joining us for the playoff run. I break down every player for every game for every week during the season, and I encourage you to hang with us into and through next season if you want to improve your fantasy knowledge base.

For those of you who are new here, I’m in the camp that Otton (when healthy; he’s currently battling a knee issue) is a fine play when Mike Evans is sidelined and a flat-out fade when that’s not the case. Tampa Bay’s WR1 is at full-go, and that makes me a full-no on their TE.

Otton’s production with Evans on the field, 2024:

• 0.84 yards per route
• 12.1% target share
• 19.1% red-zone target rate

Otton’s production without Evans on the field, 2024:

• 1.37 yards per route
• 17.7% target share
• 26.7% red-zone target rate

Otton turned two targets into five yards way back in the Week 1 meeting with the Commanders. Although much has changed since early September, Cardio Cade isn’t an investment I’m interested in making. If his ownership spikes because of the perceived favorable nature of this matchup, even better!

Dalton Kincaid, TE | BUF (vs. DEN)

I’m bullish on the Bills from a trending standpoint, even in a matchup that finished the regular season atop our Defense+ metrics, and Dalton Kincaid is a part of that optimism.

• 2024: Targeted on 27.2% of routes
• 2023: Targeted on 19.8% of routes

Being on the field has been the problem, and that’s a real problem. Kincaid hasn’t played half the snaps in any of his three games back after missing a month, though the underlying metrics support the skill set, and I’m okay with betting on talent at this position more than others.

A fully functional version of Kincaid was on the field for 63.4% of snaps last season. To me, that potential is in play now that we are in a win-or-go-home setting, and Dawson Knox just doesn’t offer the same juice to an offense that needs to produce at a high level for this team to excel.

With Travis Kelce and Sam LaPorta on bye this week, I wouldn’t look at you sideways if you projected Kincaid to lead the position in PPR points during the NFL’s second season, an upside that isn’t being priced into his playoff-long ADP right now.

Dalton Schultz, TE | HOU (vs. LAC)

For me, Dalton Schultz is Houston’s Will Dissly. By that, I mean he has a path to being the second-most targeted pass catcher on this team without having to squint too hard, but the upside is limited.

The two are priced near each other in the DFS streets, which makes complete sense to me. At this range of the position, I’m viewing rostering a punt TE play as a bet on the quarterback. And if I’m going that route, give me Justin Herbert over C.J. Stroud with a bullet.

So no, I’m not going to have exposure to Schultz this week. Stroud has been inconsistent, which has resulted in his tight end failing to reach 35 receiving yards in 13 of 17 games. If we assume that the yardage is going to be difficult to come by, you need TD equity that simply doesn’t exist — no end-zone targets in 10 of his past 11 games.

I guess you could look at Schultz vacuuming in at least six targets in three of his past four healthy games (I’m ignoring Week 18) and cite Houston’s seventh ranking in pass rate over expectation this season in a way to get some cheap PPR value. There’s a path for a 5-50 type of stat line, but I like the Chargers in this game, and the better scoring environment has me siding with their TE if I’m living in this range.

Dallas Goedert, TE | PHI (vs. GB)

Dallas Goedert returned from a knee injury that cost him four games last week, and Philadelphia made a point to get him involved early. Grant Calcaterra hasn’t reached 35 receiving yards since October, and his failure to provide value to the Eagles’ passing game has me optimistic that Goedert will assume a full-time role this weekend.

Is that enough to matter with both star receivers earning looks at a high rate?

I’m not sure there’s much in the way of the ceiling when it comes to Goedert’s profile, but this is a potent offense with a multi-game projection — that’s enough to have my attention in playoff leagues.

In weekly contests, I don’t mind Goedert, but I’m not landing there due to my liking the two TEs who sandwich him in pricing more (Dalton Kincaid and Tucker Kraft).

You’re rostering Goedert as a floor play. There’s nothing wrong with that, but in a position that weighs touchdowns heavily, I’m not getting there for a player who hasn’t scored more than three touchdowns in a season since 2021.

Goedert caught four passes for 31 yards in Week 1 against these Packers, a stat line that essentially matches my mean expectation.

Dawson Knox, TE | BUF (vs. DEN)

We are nearing the three-month anniversary since the last time Dawson Knox found paydirt, and Jan. 22 will mark two years since his last game with five receptions.

Knox is a nice veteran presence on a team that needs to be buttoned up if they are going to earn the first championship in franchise history. However, that doesn’t make him a viable fantasy option, no matter the format.

Knox’s participation rate:

• Week 14 at Rams: 81.5% snap share (29 routes)
• Week 15 at Lions: 73.5% snap share (26 routes)
• Week 16 vs. Patriots: 56.9% snap share (20 routes)
• Week 17 vs. Jets: 46.8% snap share (14 routes)

It’s never the wrong time to make the right call. Dalton Kincaid is the superior target earner, and Knox’s role is going the way of the dinosaur. There are punt options available across the board in any slate that are more worth your time.

Isaiah Likely, TE | BAL (vs. PIT)

Keep reading, and you’ll get my anti-Mark Andrews stance. And if that comes through, a pro-Isaiah Likely angle is a good way to benefit.

The 24-year-old has caught seven of eight targets for 104 yards and a score against Pittsburgh this season on just 35 routes. That’s a tiny sample, but Likely’s 56.9% snap share and 20.5% on-field target share at least have my interest in this specific matchup.

We know the TE position has touchdown equity given Andrews’ success, and I don’t think the market is valuing Likely’s potential to walk into an advantageous role properly. Given Baltimore’s potential to win multiple games, this is a path I’m interested in going for postseason-long formats.

Mark Andrews, TE | BAL (vs. PIT)

Are we at least a little concerned that Mark Andrews might be fancy Nick Westbrook-Ikhine?

Obviously, Andrews’ résumé trumps that of Tennessee’s WR, but we are looking at a very thin profile that relies on touchdowns at an uncomfortable level. If there was a change in usage, maybe I could get there, but there really hasn’t been:

• 2024: Targeted on 28.3% of red-zone routes and had 11 TDs
• 2023: Targeted on 35% of red-zone routes and had six TDs

More magnified, when looking closer at things, are the signs of decline. Andrews’ YAC is down 15% from his career norm, and his on-field target share this season set a new career low.

I’m out.

I’m choosing to overlook the fact that Andrews has been targeted on 24.3% of his routes against the Steelers this season (all other games: 18.8%), as I’m not sold on that being too sticky. We’ve seen a better version of Andrews vanish in the postseason before (single-digit PPR points in five of six career postseason games with no touchdowns on those 169 routes).

Andrews’ name and his scoring have set expectations (in all fantasy formats and in the betting markets) too high for me to invest in any positive stance.

Pat Freiermuth, TE | PIT (at BAL)

It took Pat Freiermuth just 78 targets this season to haul in a career-high 65 passes, a level of efficiency that is very encouraging. Freiermuth’s path to mattering in DFS this week is through volume in a very conservative offense that will be designed to stay on the field and, thus, keep Lamar Jackson off of it.

There are some minor trends to like. The fact that Freiermuth has been targeted on 13 of his 49 playoff routes speaks to the comfort-food sort of role he assumes this time of year. Plus, he did catch every pass thrown his way against the Ravens during the regular season.

Of course, there are two sides of that coin. It took Freiermuth 58 routes to earn those five targets that produced just 30 yards (8.5% on-field target share, down from his 17.9% rate in all other games).

Pittsburgh’s 17 implied point total is a major concern and is why I’m not too interested in going in this direction in any format. I think you’re looking at 5-7 PPR points this week with limited win equity — that’s not going to cut it in any level of playoff fantasy competition.

T.J. Hockenson, TE | MIN (at LAR)

With each passing week, my finger gets a little more itchy to take an aggressive approach on positive T.J. Hockenson props. I haven’t yet pulled the trigger in a major way, but the time might be here.

Hockenson’s participation progression, 2024:

• Weeks 1-8: DNP
• Weeks 9-11: 45.5% snap share
• Weeks 12-15: 64.2% snap share
• Weeks 16-18: 71.6% snap share

The Johnny Mundt/Josh Oliver contingent caught three of four passes for 40 yards and a touchdown when these teams first met, a game that took place before Hockenson was cleared to return. It’s very possible he soaks up that usage and then some against a defense that ranked 31st in yards allowed per attempt via the short pass.

Those targets aren’t always exciting, but I expect them to be wide open as the Rams (28th in opponent deep passer rating) allocate resources to slow down the quick strike duo of Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison. Sam Darnold wasn’t shy about pushing the envelope in that Week 8 meeting (10.4 aDOT, his second-highest of the season), and with Los Angeles able to escape with a victory, I’m willing to wager that they are game-planning to get the ball out of his hands much quicker this time around.

Sportsbooks are under no pressure to post prop lines for the final game of the week with any urgency. Yet, when they do, I’ll be looking at the prices on Hockenson to clear 3.5 and 4.5 catches.

Tucker Kraft, TE, | GB (at PHI)

It sounds as if Jordan Love is going to be okay (fingers crossed). Assuming that’s the case, there’s a world in which a Tucker Kraft flier makes sense in a Wild Card DFS setting.

With Christian Watson out and Green Bay’s passing-game targets being variant to begin with, embracing the unknown is a reasonable path, especially if you think the Packers are playing from behind in this spot.

• Week 14 at Lions: 21.7% on-field target share
• Week 15 at Seahawks: 7.4% on-field target share
• Week 16 vs. Saints: 21.1% on-field target share
• Week 17 at Vikings: 10.3% on-field target share
• Week 18 vs. Bears: 25.9% on-field target share

Kraft has five straight games with a 20+ yard reception, a run that matches the longest streak at the position this season. That gives him the potential to create splash plays and/or reign in volume. If Kraft can do either of those things, he’s likely to pay off his price tag in Philadelphia.

I’m not the least bit worried about an underwhelming Week 1 showing in this matchup (2-27-0), but I would caution against going this route in playoff-long formats given the very low win expectancy for the green and gold.

Will Dissly, TE | LAC (at HOU)

Did you know that Will Dissly’s target rate (targets earned divided by routes run) is within 1.5 percentage points of Travis Kelce and George Kittle? Ahead of Jake Ferguson and T.J. Hockenson?

The production has been spotty at best, but Dissly is at least involved in this offense, and with only one constant in the passing game (Ladd McConkey), this is the type of dart I don’t hate throwing if you’re in need of some salary relief in a DFS setting or waiting to address the position in a postseason draft.

You get the target uncertainty, win equity, and cheap exposure to a franchise quarterback whose star seems to be on the rise (Justin Herbert’s last three games: 911 passing yards with seven touchdowns).

Zach Ertz, TE | WAS (at TB)

There are just four tight ends who have more games this season with at least seven PPR points than Zach Ertz (12). That may seem like a low bar to clear, but is it?

Sam LaPorta didn’t get there.

Travis Kelce didn’t get there.

The veteran TE is spending 57% of his time in the slot, which has allowed Ertz to cash in on layup targets (5+ targets in six of his past eight games). Those looks project favorably in this specific spot against a Buccaneers defense that allows 9.1 yards per slot pass, the second-most in the NFL.

Ertz’s value has been the product of touchdowns (six over his past seven games), and while chasing scores can be dangerous, he’s in the right offense to do it. Washington has been the second-best red-zone offense since Week 10 (TD on 80% of red-zone trips).

The Commanders’ offense has grown, and Ertz has found his footing with time, giving me confidence that he rather easily clears the 3-28-0 stat line he gave us in Week 1 against the Bucs.

In postseason-long leagues, Ertz is a tough sell. At variable positions like this, I want game equity, and even if the Commanders were to pull off the upset this week (I think it’s live), I don’t see them getting past the Lions (assuming the Eagles handle the Packers).

Dalton Kincaid and Will Dissly are the lesser-thought-of tight ends who I’d rather gamble on in structures like that.