Soppe’s Week 9 Fantasy Football Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em: Analysis for Every Player in Every Game

This game of ours is one of very little separation, and that makes every decision critical. As much as I’d love to help every one of you with your specific questions (I’ll try — @KyleSoppePFN), that’s a big ask.

What I can give you, every single week, are my takes. My statistical-backed rankings are available, but you, the devoted fantasy football manager, need more than simply a number next to a name. You need to know why I stand where I do, and that’s my goal with this novel.

If you have a question, hit me up on Twitter, but my hope is that this extended piece will give you the insight you’re looking for without relying on me landing on your specific question before lineups lock.

You don’t have to get ready if you stay ready — this piece, is me staying ready to help you win the week!

Looking to make a trade in your fantasy league? Having trouble deciding who to start and who to sit? Setting DFS lineups? Check out PFN’s Free Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer, Start/Sit Optimizer, and DFS Lineup Optimizer to help you make the right decision!

Week 9 Fantasy Football Quarterbacks

Aaron Rodgers, QB | NYJ (vs. HOU)

Are we chasing a ghost in assuming that Aaron Rodgers is anything other than ordinary? Might that be overshooting it?

If not for his résumé, Rodgers’ 2024 profile wouldn’t be on our radar at all. He’s been Bo Nix if you remove Nix’s most valuable asset (his legs).

• 2024 Rodgers: 61.6% completion percentage, 85.1 passer rating, 1.7 TD/INT
• 2024 Nix: 63.2% completion percentage, 81.4 passer rating, 1.6 TD/INT

In the two games since the Davante Adams trade, Rodgers has completed 61.2% of his passes with a 1.5 touchdown-to-interception rate (Weeks 1-6: 61.8% completion percentage, 1.8 touchdown-to-interception) — nothing has changed for this instant fix trade.

On the bright side, Rodgers is distributing his passes how we’d like (Week 8: Garrett Wilson and Adams accounted for 52.9% of Jets receptions and 71.7% of their receiving yards), but the fantasy production simply hasn’t been there, and I’m not sure that changes in this spot.

The Texans allow the fourth-fewest red-zone trips per game (2.5), placing an even greater value on efficiency that Rodgers has yet to show us given the slow nature of New York’s offense. In Weeks 1-4, Houston created pressure on 31% of non-blitzed dropbacks, a rate that ranked 18th. Since, however, that percentage is up to 36.8% (ninth), and Rodgers completed 13 of 32 pressured passes in October.

I’m probably late to the party here, but I’m done fearing Rodgers in any capacity. I have the aforementioned Nix ranked well ahead of him this week, and at this point, I’d rather gamble on Anthony Richardson (at Minnesota) — and that’s saying something.

Andy Dalton, QB | CAR (vs. NO)

A car accident early last week resulted in a thumb injury that ultimately kept Andy Dalton from suiting up last week. With Carolina’s season not going anywhere and Bryce Young 13 years Dalton’s junior, a move back to Young seemed inevitable and should be considered the expectation for the remainder of 2024.

Dalton (multiple TD passes in three of five starts, but six interceptions in his last four) can safely be cut in all formats.

Anthony Richardson, QB | IND (at MIN)

I don’t want to pile on, but the number of unimpressive stats surrounding Anthony Richardson is getting out of control. He earned the lowest QB+ grade of Week 8, which is hard to do when you connect on a 69-yard touchdown in a week where every team was in action.

One big play should elevate you out of the basement, but when you complete 29% of your passes with zero scores outside of that play, you get what you deserve grade-wise. That Josh Downs score is the only one Richardson has thrown since Week 2 (80 attempts), and he hasn’t pushed the ball over the line with his legs since the season opener.

In theory, I should be enamored with Richardson’s ability to pick up cheap points with his legs (101 rush yards in his two games back from injury, so no real restrictions there), but I just can’t get there.

The bad interception at the end of the first half demonstrates that he is broken in more ways than just decision-making. He’s completely lost all confidence as a passer, and that’s made him unplayable.

The Vikings have as many multi-INT games as multi-TD pass games allowed this season, and it certainly feels as if Richardson is more likely to slide into the latter bucket than the former. The Colts shared this assessment and, on Tuesday, made it official that they were opting to go to Joe Flacco under center.

If you have the roster space, holding Richardson for a week or two is still my preferred option — if for no other reason than this franchise has more to gain by learning as much as they can about him than chasing 2024 success by way of Flacco.

If you are desperate for wins — a very real possibility given that your projected starting QB has been abysmal — cutting ties is an acceptable action.

Baker Mayfield, QB | TB (at KC)

Does the clock strike midnight here? Your gut reaction, and mine as well, was an emphatic “yes”, but the numbers paint a more optimistic picture and land Baker Mayfield in a massive tier of quarterbacks for me this week that ranges from QB13 to QB20 in my ranks.

While it’s true that the Chiefs’ defense ranks top five in yards per play, yards per game, and pressures per game, they are an aggressive bunch, and Mayfield has excelled in such spots. He draws the ninth blitz-happiest unit this week, which could play out to his advantage as he averages 8.7 yards per pass with an 8.5% TD rate when the opponent brings an extra man.

For context, Mayfield ranks fourth in blitzed passer rating through eight weeks, producing a mark that is 34.8% higher than when not blitzed.

Mayfield ranks second to only Tua Tagovailoa in quick release rate, a style of offense that naturally lends itself to beating the blitz. I’m not saying he’s bulletproof, but he’s been a QB1 in seven of eight games, and it’s not a crazy thought he could make it eight of nine — especially if you believe Kansas City’s offense can push him.

I think Mayfield makes for an interesting DFS Showdown play on Monday night. When props are released, I might also be invested in a few Mayfield overs if the public overestimates his potential struggles in this tough spot.

Bo Nix, QB | DEN (at BAL)

Anything can happen for a single game, we are all aware of that. But if I told you two months ago at your draft to order the quarterbacks in terms of likeness to post a four-week stretch where he is fantasy’s QB3, where would Bo Nix have slotted?

23rd? 33rd?

Okay, so that might be a little harsh, though the Joe Flacco supporters come out strong at times.

Nix has cleared six fantasy points with his legs in four straight games and has fired multiple touchdown passes in three of those contests. Essentially, he’s doing what we thought Jayden Daniels would do, and it all looks sustainable to my eye.

Could Nix hit a rookie wall at some point? It’s possible, but is it going to happen against the tire fire that is the Ravens’ pass defense?

Baltimore ranks 26th or worse in passer rating, yards per attempt, air yards per throw, and touchdown rate this season, giving Nix access to a ceiling to complement the floor that his athleticism provides.

I have Nix ranked as QB11 and, to be honest, am worried I’m not high enough. As it is, I have him over Patrick Mahomes and C.J. Stroud, both of whom were top-five picks at the position by ADP this summer.

I know we have “De-Hember” for Derrick Henry. Could we be entering “Bo-Vember”? The Chiefs are a tough matchup next week, but the Ravens this week with the Falcons and Raiders around that matchup lineup nicely.

I’ll see myself out.

Bryce Young, QB | CAR (vs. NO)

Bryce Young is a long way away from holding redraft value, but at least dynasty managers caught a glimpse of some promise on Sunday against the Broncos. Without either of his top two receivers, Young threw multiple TD passes for the third time in his career and completed 17 of 20 short passes (85%).

Not all growth is linear. It’s possible that Young’s learning curve is an extended one and that he will hit his stride next season in Year 2 under Dave Canales. In a dynasty league, given Young’s depressed value, you have no choice but to hold, and I’m not sure that’s a bad thing.

Caleb Williams, QB | CHI (at ARI)

If you drafted Caleb Williams and/or are counting on him in any capacity, the roller-coaster ride has been an experience. Depending on when you’ve jumped on and off will influence your feeling toward rostering the rookie, but I’ve generally been encouraged of late, and this matchup has me willing to go back to the well, even after a dreadful Week 8 showing.

What caused the disaster that was the Washington game? In short, Williams didn’t handle the blitz well.

In Weeks 3-7, he was the third-best quarterback in terms of passer rating against the blitz (133.3, trailing only Jared Goff and Joe Burrow). But in Week 8, Williams checked in 31st of 33 qualifiers (61.7, worst of QBs who had more than five pass attempts against the blitz for the week).

I’m not sure if that’s a blip on the radar or cause for long-term concern, but that’s a problem for another day. The Cardinals (third-most red-zone trips allowed this season) are a middle-of-the-pack defense in terms of blitz rate and the second-worst at creating pressure when they do elect to bring an extra defender. That’s the driving force behind my QB12 ranking of the rookie, one spot ahead of Mahomes.

C.J. Stroud, QB | HOU (at NYJ)

It’s very possible that we underestimated the impact that Nico Collins had on the flow of Houston’s offense. His playmaking is one thing, but like Steph Curry in the NBA, the leverage Collins provides just by being active opens up things for everyone else, something that simply hasn’t been the case since he went down.

C.J. Stroud has 11 deep pass attempts over his past two games — in the last two games in which Collins started, he had 11 deep completions. Defenses aren’t respecting the Texans’ offense in the same fashion, and Stroud is struggling to adapt for our purposes with an average finish outside of the top 20 since his WR1 went down.

Things don’t get any easier this week with Stefon Diggs lost for the season and the Jets on the schedule. New York is a top-five pass defense this season in yards per attempt, yards allowed after the catch, sack rate, and touchdown rate, all of which figure to limit Stroud’s floor/ceiling combination.

The Jets won’t hesitate to bring the heat, which is another area in which Stroud’s production has fallen off of a cliff since Collins’ injury (Weeks 1-5: 63% completion percentage when pressured, since: 41.2%).

Get well soon, Nico. Stroud is my QB16 this week.

Dak Prescott, QB | DAL (at ATL)

This matchup is friendly enough to sniff around Dak Prescott/CeeDee Lamb stacks in DFS. Yet, with multiple interceptions in three of Prescott’s past four games, I’m not sold on the floor being high enough to justify going in this direction in season-long formats.

Most quarterbacks in today’s NFL offer some level of mobility and, for fantasy, that factors into why I largely don’t sweat interceptions. They usually indicate aggression (which we want), and many can get those points back with their legs at some point, not to mention the fantasy-friendly game script that has the potential to arise from a turnover that puts his team behind.

But the days of Prescott producing at even a league-average rate with his legs are long gone. He has more games with a negative rushing total this season than double-digit yard performances.

The case for America’s QB this week is simple. The Falcons can’t pressure the QB (fourth-lowest rate), and when Prescott isn’t pressured, he gets the ball to Lamb.

• Lamb target share when Prescott is pressured: 15.4%
• Lamb target share when Prescott isn’t pressured: 30.4%

If you’re telling me that 30.4% of Prescott’s passes go in Lamb’s direction, I’ll blindly start him. Of course, we don’t know if that’s going to be the case, and I have to rank accordingly. But I’m interested in the DFS space, especially at suppressed ownership as people look to stack up the Lions/Packers game or pay up for great spots in Josh Allen (vs. MIA) and Jayden Daniels (at NYG).

Daniel Jones, QB | NYG (vs. WAS)

Per our NFL Week 9 Stats and Insights piece, released every Tuesday morning and demands your attention if you want a jump start on the week ahead, Daniel Jones hasn’t thrown a touchdown pass at home since the Damar Hamlin injury. If that feels like a long time ago, that’s because it was (Jan. 2, 2023).

A note like that isn’t predictive as much as it is a way to highlight the state of New York’s offense right now, and the field conditions at their home venue certainly don’t help.

In the past, we’ve seen Jones overcome his limitations as a passer thanks to plus-rushing numbers. But no more than five carries in three of his past five — that out is not one we can currently bank on having.

The Commanders own the third-highest pressure rate in the league this season, and Jones’ completion percentage when sped up is set to decline for a second consecutive season.

There may be opportunities to stream Jones in a pinch or get creative in a daily setting (they get the Bucs with an extra week to prep in Week 12 and a meeting with Baltimore still looms), but I’m going to need to see something in the way of form before considering those dangerous options.

Derek Carr, QB | NO (at CAR)

Derek Carr has missed three straight games with an oblique injury, and he might not have his starting role back when deemed healthy.

See? I have to make sure you’re paying attention. This is a long article that you’re embarking upon, and we need you to be locked in as you chase a playoff berth.

Saints QB Rankings, Weeks 6-8:

• 25th in passer rating
• 26th in yards per attempt
• 30th in completion percentage
• 31st in touchdown rate
• 32nd in first down rate

Carr began throwing last week, which leads me to believe that he could be back sooner than later. Jake Haener took over for Spencer Rattler last week in a shuffling of chairs on the Titanic situation and operated from the pocket for 16 of his 17 pass attempts. As far as third-string QBs go, I thought Haener was fine, but nothing noteworthy for fantasy managers, especially with the injuries that have taken place in the Saints’ receiver room.

The first two weeks have proven to be the outlier, not the norm in New Orleans, and while this matchup is tempting, I’m nowhere near comfortable in trusting Carr if activated. There are simply too many viable options at the position this week to take on this sort of risk.

Drake Maye, QB | NE (at TEN)

Jerod Mayo was surprised when the medical staff told him that Drake Maye had to go into the blue tent following his head injury but admitted that “pulling him out of the game and putting him in protocol is above my pay grade.”

It doesn’t sound like a lasting injury and reporting out of New England is painting an optimistic picture that their franchise QB will not miss any time.

Maye has a fantasy-friendly skill set and had a pair of top-12 QB finishes prior to the injury. Asking him to be a weekly option for your team this season is a bit optimistic, but assuming health, I don’t think his days as a viable streamer are over.

The Patriots get a nice three-game run to round out the month (Rams, Dolphins, and Colts), a stretch where I could see playing Maye in a pinch.

The Titans defense is quietly top five in completion percentage, yards per attempt, and first-down rate, rankings that have me off of Maye this week, but don’t lose track of him — he’s already an asset in our game, even if the product is raw.

Gardner Minshew II, QB | LV (at CIN)

I understand wanting to target the Bengals’ defense, but I can’t get there with Gardner Minshew II.

Minshew has yet to finish a week better than QB18 this season and is masking a talent deficiency on this roster with short passes that do very little damage (his average depth of throw over his past four games: 8.3 yards, 7.7, 6.2, 4.6).

Even in this plus spot, the Raiders have an implied total of under 20 points. There are a handful of offenses to ignore altogether and this is one of them.

Geno Smith, QB | SEA (vs. LAR)

If DK Metcalf is deemed active this week, I’ll move Geno Smith up a few spots, but that still won’t land him as the QB1 in this game or a top-15 option at the position across the league for me.

Last season, Smith averaged just 5.8 yards per pass against the Rams. And although this Los Angeles defense isn’t nearly as good, I have trust issues here.

The Rams rank fifth in pressure rate thus far, and considering that Smith is averaging just 5.4 yards per pressured attempt over the past month with as many interceptions as touchdowns, you can do better.

The five top-10 finishes from earlier this season were done with some smoke and mirrors, making a glance at Smith’s overall box score a bit misleading. He doesn’t have a 40-yard completion in five straight games, and with Kenneth Walker III in a strong spot, I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if we saw a third straight sub-30 attempt game from Smith.

Jacoby Brissett, QB | NE (at TEN)

If Brissett gets the nod this week, it adds value to the Titans’ D/ST, and that’s about it.

That’s not true, it makes me more interested in betting the under as well. But in terms of fantasy value, this hopefully would mean nothing to you. This would hurt people looking to start Hunter Henry and/or Rhamondre Stevenson as the offensive environment as a whole suffers.

Brissett has thrown 159 passes this season and two of them have resulted in scores.

No bueno.

Jalen Hurts, QB | PHI (vs. JAX)

Hurts moved into second place in franchise history in rushing scores on Sunday, an effort that showcased all of the reasons why he is my QB1 this week and the rest of the way.

In the blowout win, he had a pair of Tush Push scores, a perimeter run for another touchdown, and a 45-yard dime over the shoulder of DeVonta Smith in the end zone. He’s a strong bet to be the sixth quarterback to crack 20 fantasy points against the Jaguars this season. As long as he can stay healthy, I see no reason why he can’t be a staple on a fantasy title team.

Jameis Winston, QB | CLE (vs. LAC)

This man has as many multi-pass TD games as Deshaun Watson this season and has a higher peak finish in 2024 than Patrick Mahomes or Aaron Rodgers.

He’s made one start.

The Browns’ season isn’t going anywhere, but with the 30-year-old Winston in the final year of his contract, I’m not the least bit worried about motivation. We know that there is a reckless side to him, but that’s the mindset I want if I’m streaming the position.

I’m not going there this weekend against the third-most effective blitzing team that ranks fifth-best in yards per pass allowed this season — but I’m OK with stashing him and seeing where this goes.

• Week 16 at Cincinnati Bengals
• Week 17 vs. Miami Dolphins

Jared Goff, QB | DET (at GB)

Weeks like last are going to happen for QBs on elite teams. Goff threw for just 85 yards against the Titans as Detroit found a hundred different ways to score on their way to 52 points, finishing the week as QB18.

You take the good with the bad. We always preach the value of having players tethered to great teams — Goff checks that box. He was just the victim of a crazy game. He remains the most efficient QB in the game (last four games: 84.3% complete, 11.7 yards per pass, and a 12% touchdown rate). That puts him into my top 10, a solid accomplishment given the lack of rushing production.

The Packers have caused plenty of turnovers this season, and that leads the highlight shows, but they are allowing the eighth-most yards per completion. All Goff does these days is complete passes at a historic rate. They also rank 29th in blitz rate, making it likely that Detroit’s receivers have plenty of time to find soft spots against this aggressive secondary.

Jayden Daniels, QB | WAS (at NYG)

The Hail Mary bailed you out from a very disappointing effort, but I wasn’t all that discouraged from the outing against a stingy Bears defense. The fantasy numbers weren’t as gaudy as we’ve become accustomed to, and that’s going to happen from time to time. That said, he was still delivering the ball on time, he was still picking up chunks of yardage on the ground (52 yards), and he played clean football.

That’s much more of a football take than a fantasy one, but his continued maturation in a traditional football sense will open doors for sustained fantasy greatness beyond what his physical tools have already showcased.

These Giants held Daniels in check back in Week 2 (13.4 fantasy points) — he’s a different quarterback now with two months under his belt. The top three QB performances against New York this season have all seen the signal-caller pick up over seven fantasy points with his legs, a box I plan on Daniels checking this week on his path to his fourth top-five finish of the season.

Joe Burrow, QB | CIN (vs. LV)

I’d take my chances most weeks if you told me Burrow was going to complete over 70% of his passes, funnel over 30% of his looks to Ja’Marr Chase, and run for 15 yards. That profile, more often than not, is going to make him a usable piece. But against the Eagles last week, it resulted in his worst weekly finish since Week 1.

The Friday injury to Tee Higgins certainly disrupted what this offense wanted to do, and the lack of a ground game certainly didn’t help (Chase Brown and Zack Moss ran 17 times for 43 yards with a long rush of five yards). This week should be better.

Not only will the team have a contingency plan in place for the Higgins situation, a level of balance is much more likely as they face a defense that ranks 23rd in rush success rate and 28th in yards allowed per carry after contact to running backs this year.

Burrow has been able to marry an increase in quick strike rate with regular downfield shots, a combination that should prove lethal in this spot. The Raiders create pressure at the fifth-lowest rate and allow the fifth-most red-zone trips per game (3.6). I have zero hesitation about going back to Cincy’s franchise man — he’s my QB6 for Week 9.

Joe Flacco, QB | IND (at MIN)

Flacco has multiple passing scores in eight straight regular-season games, including all three instances in which he’s been called upon this season. The veteran’s floor is clearly higher than that of the man he is replacing, but I don’t love this spot, even with Minnesota struggling a bit of late.

The well-rested Vikings rank better than the league average in nearly every metric against short passes, putting them in a position to further limit Flacco’s ceiling (6.6-yard aDOT). With Minnesota operating at the fifth-slowest pace, we ran into a volume issue, and that resulted in Flacco simply replacing Anthony Richardson in my ranks.

Among the widely available options down the QB board, I have Flacco over Jameis Winston, but you’d have to be in a very difficult spot to have to go that direction.

Jordan Love, QB | GB (vs. DET)

I continue to be impressed with Jordan Love. On Sunday, his first 12 passes saw seven different players targeted, distribution patterns that rarely develop this early in careers.

Of course, his Week 8 came to an end early with a groin injury, and while all reports in the first half of this week are leaning in the positive direction, Green Bay’s schedule figures to be a part of the decision-making process when it comes to sending Love out there for Sunday’s marquee matchup.

• Week 10 bye
• Week 11 at Chicago Bears
• Week 12 vs. San Francisco 49ers
• Week 13 vs. Miami Dolphins (Thanksgiving)
• Week 14 at Detroit Lions (TNF)

Green Bay has several important games coming up, and with the bye following Sunday’s game, a cautious approach could prove to be sharp. The Lions are an average pass defense on all fronts, which will land Love inside my top 10 quarterbacks, so long as he is operating without limitations.

If Love were to sit, Malik Willis would again take over for the Packers — fantasy managers can do better. Caleb Williams (at ARI) and Tua Tagovailoa (at BUF) are far too available in ESPN leagues while Jameis Winston (vs. LAC) is still on plenty of wires — all of whom I’d play over Willis should you be forced to pivot.

Josh Allen, QB | BUF (vs. MIA)

Including the playoffs, Allen has cleared 21 fantasy points in 11 of 14 career starts against the Dolphins, five times surpassing 33 points (most recent: Week 3, 2023). He’s squished the fish whenever given the opportunity.

While he saw his 13-game multi-TD pass streak against Miami come to an end in Week 2 due to the domination of the run game (78 yards and two touchdowns on 11 carries for James Cook), he’s on the short list of players who could set the pace for scoring this weekend.

He has this Buffalo offense trending in a positive direction, and that creates an elite floor. The Bills scored a touchdown on 9.1% of their drives in the blowout loss to the Ravens in Week 4, they followed that up with a 16.7% rate in Week 5, 33.3% in Week 6, 36.4% in Week 7, and 40% in Seattle last week. Allen is locked and loaded in all formats — there isn’t such a thing as having too much exposure to him this weekend.

Justin Herbert, QB | LAC (at CLE)

Herbert is coming off his first top-15 fantasy finish of the season, though that performance (279 yards and two touchdowns) came against a Saints defense that is trending toward one of the worst in the league.

The Browns aren’t the defensive powerhouse that they have been in the past, but they’ve shown signs of life lately and lead the league in pressure rate. Herbert’s completion rate when under duress this season is trending toward a career low. And with volume always a concern (26th in pass rate over expectation), any efficiency concerns are damning for his fantasy stock.

Herbert is a better NFL QB than a fantasy asset in this system, and I don’t see that changing this week or for the remainder of 2024.

Kirk Cousins, QB | ATL (vs. DAL)

Sadly, the way the NFL schedule works, Cousins doesn’t get to face the Bucs again this season. What fun is that?

He again lit up the divisional foe last week. If you extend his numbers against Tampa Bay for a 600-pass season, we are talking about a cool 5,414 passing yards and 56 touchdowns.

It’s been the rest of the NFL that has been a problem. The former Viking put up top-five numbers in both Buccaneers games — he has one finish inside the top 20 fantasy signal-callers otherwise.

Three pocket passers have cleared 21 fantasy points against the Cowboys this season (Brock Purdy, Jared Goff, and Derek Carr), a list Cousins could join this week. His profile is so-so, but this is more a play against a Dallas defense that has seen their success rate when blitzing tank since the injuries suffered up front.

Cousins’ efficiency when not pressured is his best since 2021 and lands him as a low-end QB1 for me this weekend.

Kyler Murray, QB | ARI (vs. CHI)

Murray has been a top-12 QB in three of his past four games, and we again got a glimpse of what could be. Last week, his 22-yard touchdown pass to Marvin Harrison Jr. was nothing short of perfection, and his dynamic ability opens up throwing lanes that he is finally maximizing (9.1 yards per out-of-pocket pass, three full yards ahead of his career norm).

We just saw the Bears lock up Jayden Daniels for 59 minutes and 59 seconds, but I think part of that was their respect for Washington’s run game, thus bringing them closer to the line of scrimmage to muddy up Daniels’ quick reads.

That won’t be the case in this spot (Washington RBs rank fifth in yards per carry before contact while Arizona’s rank 29th), putting Murray in a spot to exceed 40 scoring opportunities (pass and rush attempts). If that’s the case, he doesn’t have to be overly efficient to produce top-10 numbers — I think that’s what we see here.

Lamar Jackson, QB | BAL (vs. DEN)

A Rashod Bateman drop last week robbed Jackson of additional yards and the 300-yard bonus in daily spots last week. I mean, your job title is “receiver;” you’d think “receiving” the ball would be at the top of his résumé, but what do I know?

No, I’m not at all salty about that drop. It certainly didn’t impact my DFS lineups, my moneyline picks competition, or my bet on the Ravens’ team total. Why do you ask?

OK, I had to get that off of my chest. Jackson has been the QB6 or better in six weeks this season, building a profile that looks very much like what Jalen Hurts gave us up to this point a season ago. Denver’s aggressive defense (second in pressure rate) is a problem for most, but Jackson isn’t “most.”

Jackson’s splits, 2024:

• Pressured: 108.2 passer rating, 7.0 yards per attempt, and 10.9% TD rate
• Not pressured: 118.1 passer rating, 9.6 yards per attempt, and 5.8% TD rate

His next pressured interception will be his first of the season. This Denver defense tops our Defense+ metric, and I’m buying what they are selling — just not against the reigning MVP.

Malik Willis, QB | GB (vs. DET)

Should Malik Willis get the nod for the Cheeseheads, I actually think they have a chance to compete. However, that works counter to his fantasy stock.

The reason I’d give Green Bay a puncher’s chance in this event is because they’d go out of their way to melt the clock — the old “your best defense is your offense” strategy to keep the high-flying Lions on the bench.

If the Packers are operating at a snail’s pace, we run into volume concerns across the board. Yes, Willis was QB6 in Week 3, but that came against a much less intimidating offense (Tennessee) and saw him average 10.6 yards per attempt while scoring 13.3 points with his legs.

Those rates aren’t sustainable. If you want to bet on Willis should he get the nod, take Green Bay with the points instead of putting him into any fantasy roster.

Mason Rudolph | TEN (vs. NE)

Mason Rudolph was able to produce early last week by loading Calvin Ridley down with targets in the first quarter, but that strategy ran out of gas with time and isn’t a sustainable way to pay the fantasy bills moving forward.

He has a sub-4% career touchdown rate and should be nowhere near fantasy rosters for Week 9. His greatest asset will be his willingness to lock in on Ridley, something we hope sustains for as long as he is under center

Matthew Stafford, QB | LAR (at SEA)

The Seahawks’ defense has largely been able to shut down inept passing games while proving vulnerable against even semi-stable ones, making them a legitimate target now that the Rams have their impact receivers back and get the benefit of the mini-bye after beating the Vikings last Thursday night.

Weeks 1 and 8 (with both star receivers):

• 19.7 fantasy points per game
• 71.1% complete
• 6% touchdown rate
• 77.9 pressured passer rating

Weeks 2-7 (without at least one of his star receivers):

• 8.1 fantasy points per game
• 65.8% complete
• 1.3% touchdown rate
• 39.9 pressured passer rating

It didn’t take long to see the impact health had on Stafford — 6.6 first-quarter fantasy points last week (three games prior: 5.7). Logic would state that the Cooper Kupp/Puka Nacua tandem is near impossible to guard man-to-man, and that makes Stafford’s production against zone with his favorite targets in the mix all that more meaningful as that is the most likely direction defenses go.

Stafford’s EPA vs. zone:

• Week 8: 11.75
• Week 1: 0.81
• Week 3: -1.22
• Week 4: -2.23
• Week 5: -2.51
• Week 7: -3.29
• Week 2: -12.88

I could throw 1,000 more numbers at you, but I’ll spare you all of the nerding out. It goes without saying that Stafford’s limitations as a runner cap his ceiling (though he did look athletic in avoiding a sack before finding Kupp in the end zone last week). But with L.A.’s defense underwhelming, he’s going to be put in a position to produce big numbers from the pocket.

Stafford is flirting with QB1 status this week for me, and you could certainly justify playing him over preseason MVP front-runners C.J. Stroud or Patrick Mahomes.

Patrick Mahomes, QB | KC (vs. TB)

Benching Mahomes isn’t something you thought you’d be wrestling with when you drafted him, but every number produced through two months suggests that it’s the right move.

I could weigh you down with facts like “Mahomes hasn’t finished better than QB16 in six straight games” or “he went through the entire month of October without a completion of 20+ air yards,” but how about the simple fact that Kansas City is undefeated?

The Chiefs don’t need Mahomes to produce fantasy points for you to put ticks in the win column — it really is that simple.

The Bucs aren’t an intimidating defense, and maybe Mahomes will get it rolling under the bright lights on Monday. But we are in the predictions business, and nothing he has done up to this point is deserving of our trust.

Tampa Bay blitzes at the third-highest rate (35.4% of dropbacks), and Mahomes is pacing for the second-worst TD rate of his career alone with easily the highest interception rate of his career when opponents bring the heat.

If you’re starting Mahomes, I get it. It’s blind faith, and if you’ve made that bet over his career, you’re doing just fine. For me, he’s behind three rookies this week, and I could make a sound case for playing Matthew Stafford instead. Or even Mahomes’ opposing number in this game if you really want to get frisky.

Sam Darnold, QB | MIN (at vs. IND)

Remember when Derek Carr looked like the league MVP and the Saints were on a historic pace? I don’t want to say that Minnesota’s house of cards could face a similar fate, but …

First quarter, Week 8:

• 100% completion percentage
• 12.1 yards per pass
• 12.6 fantasy points

Most recent 11 quarters otherwise:

• 61.3% completion percentage
• 7.7 yards per pass
• 2.4 fantasy points per quarter

Weeks 1-4:

• 68.9% completion percentage
• 8.8 yards per pass
• 4.9 fantasy points per quarter

Darnold’s status as a viable option in one-QB formats appears to be on thin ice. However, if you have to go back to him, you could do worse than this matchup, at home, on extended rest.

Minnesota heads to Jacksonville in Week 10, making this a good bounce-back spot, but Darnold is outranked outside of my starting tier this week. I need to see him rekindle the magic before betting on it.

Trevor Lawrence, QB | JAX (at PHI)

The idea of buying low on Lawrence in a dynasty format is appealing to me, but the idea of playing him in a redraft format is appalling to me. With Christian Kirk done for the season and Brian Thomas Jr. potentially on the shelf for the next two weeks, what exactly is Lawrence’s path to a top-15 week?

A heavy dose of Evan Engram is likely, and I think that can result in some production. However, with the rushing upside much less prevalent than in years past (8.7 rushing yards per game over his past six), the risk profile is simply too large to even consider going in this direction.

Philadelphia is a top-10 time-of-possession team while Jacksonville is in the bottom 10. With this spread checking in at over a touchdown, the expectation is that the Eagles dictate tempo throughout. Lawrence has been a streamer for each of the past five weeks now (QB finishes between 9-15 in each of those contests), but I view that as an optimistic ceiling case this weekend with the more likely outcome being well behind that.

Lawrence is my QB23 for Week 9.

Tua Tagovailoa, QB | MIA (at BUF)

I thought Tagovailoa looked as good as you could have realistically hoped for in his return to action last week. We saw his impact on this offense as a whole right off the bat (two double-digit gains on the first two plays), and we got the vintage dime to Tyreek Hill, a 30-yard dot down the right sideline on an early third down.

Not everything is going to be perfect, especially behind a shaky offensive line. But against the second-lowest blitz defense in the league, I have enough confidence to plug in Tagovailoa this week in most formats.

The Bills excel at defending the perimeter, and I think that will help fuel their postseason success against teams like Pittsburgh and Houston. But Miami’s motion might render that strength useless and result in them chasing the Dolphins’ burners as opposed to locking them down.

There’s plenty of risk in this play, and Buffalo owns the fourth-best red-zone defense in the league. But if you’ve waited out this situation, I think you have to call his number in what shouldn’t be a bad weather spot and has a game total approaching 50 points. Right now, I have Tagovailoa tiered with Jared Goff, Bo Nix, and Caleb Williams as the end of the tier of QBs I’m comfortable starting in Week 9.

Will Levis, QB | TEN (vs. NE)

If it needs to be said that you’re not trusting Levis under any circumstances, it might be time to explore other hobbies.

The foliage in New England is beautiful this time of year. Fall is a great time to explore new recipes. There are other ways to spend your fall days than banking on Levis to develop out of nowhere.

We aren’t sure if a shoulder injury will again keep him out of action, but with his yards per attempt down 21.1% from last season, there’s no reason to be waiting on this status. Mason Rudolph has filled in as best he can, but that’s not a direction to be going, either.

If you’re hell-bent on getting Titans exposure, you can be encouraged by the connection that Rudolph showed with Calvin Ridley for a 10-minute stretch last week. Outside of that, you can move on from this game without much thought.

Week 9 Fantasy Football Running Backs

Aaron Jones, RB | MIN (vs. IND)

Is Aaron Jones what Najee Harris has been for years? That is a reasonable floor with a capped ceiling and inconsistent inefficiency in an offense that hovers around the league average.

Jones accounted for every single Vikings RB carry in the Week 8 loss to the Rams, racking up over 20 touches for the third time in five games. That said, it was his third game this season without a 10-yard carry and fifth time in six weeks without a rushing touchdown.

• Weeks 1-3: 9.5% of carries have failed to gain yardage
• Since: 19.4% of carries have failed to gain yardage

Jones showed well in his team debut against the Giants, but since then, his boom/bust rate (percentage of carries gaining at least 10 yards minus percentage of carries failing to gain yardage) in the seven weeks since is -8.9%.

• Harris (2021-23): -8.6% boom/bust rate

Jones has given us some peaks (three RB1 finishes) and valleys (two finishes outside of the top 25 at the position). I think we see a little more stability moving forward in the middle of those two outcomes. This matchup doesn’t scare me, and his versatility helps create a floor that lands him as a middling RB2, a ranking that I think will be on the high end of expectations as we come down the stretch of the fantasy regular season.

Alexander Mattison, RB | LV (at CIN)

Alexander Mattison might be the lead man in Vegas, and this might be the worst run defense in terms of success rate, but are 3.2 yards per carry as a part of a struggling offense really the way you want your matchup to be decided?

Mattison is a low-end Flex play thanks to 16 targets over the past four games and bankable volume. However, his narrow range of outcomes isn’t appealing if you’re in the business of chasing upside.

Alvin Kamara, RB | NO (at CAR)

Alvin Kamara has more targets (18) than rush attempts (17) over the past two weeks. After averaging 90.5 rushing yards per game in September, he didn’t reach 70 once in October.

All of the predictive trends are pointing in the wrong direction, and that’s concerning. Yet, this is #PantherWeek for the Saints, and that obligates you to bump everyone up a tier.

If Kamara takes advantage of this matchup, I wouldn’t blink twice about selling him to the highest bidder on Monday morning — potentially before you get your first cup of coffee.

Antonio Gibson, RB | NE (at TEN)

Antonio Gibson has played under one-quarter of the snaps in half of New England’s games this season. With two of those coming over the past two weeks, he is comfortably off of fantasy radars in all formats.

Of course, like so many running backs in the NFL, Gibson is a single injury away from extended usage. But does that matter?

Over his past three games, the 26-year-old has produced 49% below fantasy expectations, the type of inefficiency that wipes him off of the rosterable handcuff tier.

Austin Ekeler, RB | WAS (at NYG)

Ekeler has run about as hot as you could possibly hope this season. Brian Robinson Jr. got dinged up, and the veteran has multiple catches in every game this season, not to mention a 20+ yard gain in six of seven games.

He’s shown juice that we weren’t sure we’d ever see again. This offense as a whole is performing at levels that we thought we might see a few years into the Jayden Daniels experience, not a few weeks.

All of that has transpired, and Ekeler has one top-24 finish this season. You know what you’re getting from Ekeler (6-8 carries and 3-4 targets). That might be appealing in a deeper league, but with this game projected to be played in the low 40s, this isn’t a profile I’m targeting with only two teams on a bye if I can avoid it.

Bijan Robinson, RB | ATL (vs. DAL)

Bijan Robinson caught a touchdown pass last week in which he was Kirk Cousins’ fourth read — that was encouraging for a few reasons.

The fact that Robinson stayed engaged and was able to catch his quarterback’s eye after that long was good to see, as was this offensive line holding up long enough for such a play to take place.

The Cowboys allow the most yards per RB target this season (8.5), a weakness that I suspect the Falcons to pick at routinely (Robinson’s pace: 66 receptions). Atlanta’s featured back is averaging 5.3 ypc over the past month. We can safely give him north of 15 touches, which means he’s a top-10 running back with a clear path to leading the position in scoring this week.

Braelon Allen, RB | NYJ (vs. HOU)

Can’t anything in New York be simple? Early in the season, this backfield looked like a budding committee, but then it appeared that Breece Hall was poised to fill the role we assumed he would when we drafted this summer.

Allen’s snap shares:

• Week 4 vs. Denver Broncos: 34.3%
• Week 5 at Minnesota Vikings: 25.4%
• Week 6 vs. Buffalo Bills: 18.6%
• Week 7 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers: 9.1%
• Week 8 at New England Patriots: 33.3%

The seemingly random spike in the rookie’s usage was by design as Allen was on the field for half of their first-quarter offensive snaps. With the Jets averaging just 16.6 points per game during this five-game losing streak, this offensive pie simply isn’t big enough for a shared backfield.

For me, Allen remains a Tier 1 RB handcuff and nothing more.

Breece Hall, RB | NYJ (vs. HOU)

Would I love to get Breece Hall past 16 carries (something he’s done just once this season)? Of course, but there’s enough explosion in his profile to pay off regardless, and we get an example every week of Aaron Rodgers trusting Hall down the field as a route runner (last week, we saw a chunk gain by way of DPI).

That role, to me, is that of a huge performance in waiting. It could happen this week on short rest against the third-worst red-zone defense in the NFL. I’m not calling for it, but fantasy managers should feel good about their RB1’s outlook this week and for the second half of the season.

Brian Robinson Jr., RB | WAS (at NYG)

For the first time this season, Brian Robinson Jr. failed to score and didn’t reach 100 yards on the ground. He’s the lead man in this backfield, but without a 20-yard run in five straight and just a single catch over his past three games, this fantasy profile is a little thinner than you might assume.

That’s more of a friendly warning than actionable advice. The Giants rank 28th in rush defense EPA and figure to allow the Commanders to be playing with a lead. This is a great bounce-back spot, and you should feel great about getting a piece of Washington’s offense.

Bucky Irving, RB | TB (at KC)

As much as I like what we see from Bucky Irving on a weekly basis, Rachaad White continues to be just involved, and that’s a problem in a tough matchup like this.

The Chiefs own the highest success rate against running backs and have an offense that can control the tempo. My problem with the Bucs is that they have two backs that thrive as pass catchers. How are we supposed to project usage with confidence?

I have Irving (seven catches last week and 14 catches on 15 targets in October) as the favorite to lead Tampa Bay’s backfield in touches thanks to the edge in rushing efficiency, but this is a hot-hand situation that will be a headache moving forward.

Chase Brown, RB | CIN (vs. LV)

The Raiders allow the most goal-to-go drives per game. Last week, Chase Brown pushed across a four-yard score, indicating that the valuable carries might well be his (nine red-zone touches over his past five games).

The concern, of course, is a lack of efficiency. Brown has 27 carries for 76 yards over the past two weeks, and if you remove a single one, his ypc average over that stretch tanks to 2.1.

I like the Bengals in this game, and if that’s going to prove accurate, Brown’s 14-16 touches will land him as a usable fantasy piece. With that being my stance, I have him ranked as my RB25 this week, ahead of players like J.K. Dobbins and Javonte Williams, two backs with slightly more stable roles.

Chuba Hubbard, RB | CAR (vs. NO)

We can worry about the Jonathon Brooks situation when we get there (if we get there). Chuba Hubbard has at least 17 touches in six straight games, and although Carolina’s offense doesn’t offer a ton of scoring chances, their bell cow continues to find a way to work his way into successful fantasy lineups so as long as the game stays even remotely competitive.

That should be the case against a Saints team that is trending very much in the wrong direction. Not only do the Saints own the worst goal-to-go defense in the NFL, but they’re allowing the fourth-most yards per carry to running backs and scores to the position at the fifth-highest rate(4.7% of carries).

I have no interest in jumping off Hubbard until I have a reason to, and nothing about this spot scares me.

D’Andre Swift, RB | CHI (at ARI)

Is there a running back playing better than D’Andre Swift? Over his past four games, he’s produced 33.4% over expectation, averaging 22.6 PPR points per game in the process, highlighted by a 56-yard score last week.

At first, I thought Swift’s success was tied to Caleb Williams’ development, but against Washington, he proved capable of producing even when the passing game was struggling (18 carries for 129 yards).

The fact that Swift can burn defenses in a variety of ways makes him a surefire fantasy starter in all formats. There are five running backs in the NFC North that you can start on a consistent basis — you’re lucky to have any of them!

Dalvin Cook, RB | DAL (at ATL)

Dalvin Cook made his season debut last week and was hardly used in a game in which presumed RB1 Rico Dowdle was a late scratch (illness). Dowdle will be back today, though Cook still has a path to a handful of Carrie’s with Ezekiel Elliott being left in Dallas due to disciplinary reasons.

The veteran back will get some work and that makes him intriguing in deep leagues where any role owns value, but in standard sized leagues, Cook is not only off the starting radar, he doesn’t need to be rostered.

David Montgomery, RB | DET (at GB)

The Lions got a short field for their second position last week — two handoffs to David Montgomery later, and they had seven points on the board. Easy game.

At various points this season, I’ve questioned the veteran’s versatility, in part to him failing to catch multiple passes in the majority of games this season. Montgomery, clearly, read about those concerns and decided to throw for a score last week. What can’t this offense do?

The Packers allow the third-most yards per carry after contact to RBs this season, giving me all the confidence in the world that Monty will cash in the opportunities he gets inside the 10-yard line.

The volume is never going to overwhelm, but the value of those touches is what matters. And given how successful Detroit’s offense is right now, Montgomery’s value is as safe as running backs averaging 6-8 more touches than him.

Derrick Henry, RB | BAL (vs. DEN)

Isn’t it crazy what happens when you more than triple the yards per carry before contact for one of the game’s most physical runners?

Derrick Henry’s production over expectation is sitting at a career high, and his gain rate (86.2%) is pacing for his best since 2018.

From a spreadsheet standpoint, Henry looks like a fade. He’s hardly involved in the passing game (one multi-catch effort this season), and big plays continue to drive his rushing numbers. But what evidence do we have that any defense can stop Henry?

Trick question. We have no such evidence.

Henry was held to 11 carries last week due to how the game scripted out, and it still didn’t matter (73 yards and a score). Denver owns a top-10 run defense in every metric I value, and I couldn’t care less. Henry might be the most matchup-proof player in fantasy sports right now, and if you had the foresight to draft him, you’re positioned well to make a deep run this winter.

Devin Singletary, RB | NYG (vs. WAS)

This is no longer to be considered a committee situation. This is Tyrone Tracy Jr.’s world, and Devin Singletary is just living in it. Over the past two weeks, the rookie has held a 63.1% – 29.5% snap edge, but that sort of thing can be impacted by a million factors.

What most impacts that factor from a predictive standpoint is production, and there simply is no way around it — Tracy is “the guy.” Across those two weeks, he’s producing 36.1% over expectation (Singletary: -17.2%) and averaging 27% more PPR points per touch than the preseason starter.

If you need to cut ties, you have my stamp of approval.

De’Von Achane, RB | MIA (at BUF)

De’Von Achane looked like the fantasy rockstar he was as a rookie last week with Tagovailoa back (16 touches for 147 yards and a touchdown). And for as long as his starting QB is under center, I’m not sure why we’d expect Achane to be anything other than a top-10 player.

The Bills are likely to provide some resistance (seventh-fewest yards allowed to running backs after contact this season), but we saw Achane’s versatility on full display last week, which puts him in position to return solid RB1 numbers on Sunday across all formats.

You took it on the chin during Tagovailoa’s absence; it’s time for your loyalty to be rewarded handsomely.

Ezekiel Elliott, RB | DAL (at ATL)

Note: Ezekiel Elliott did not travel with the team due to disciplinary reasons. He will not be playing on Sunday.

Elliott held a 42.4% to 28.8% snap edge over Dalvin Cook (six catches for 12 yards in Week 8) last week. Maybe that hints that he is the slight percentage play moving forward should Rico Dowdle miss time. But that’s the lesser of two evils and would more than likely result in a situation where there isn’t a Dallas Cowboy ranked inside my top 30 at the position.

In playing, or even rostering, the veteran running back, you’re chasing a score. Elliott is averaging a red-zone touch per game, but with his yards per carry before contact set to decline for a third consecutive season, it’s clear that Father Time has taken his pound of flesh from the one-time elite fantasy asset.

Jahmyr Gibbs, RB | DET (at GB)

What the Lions are doing with their two-back system is astounding. It’s been so consistent, I don’t know how you bet against it at this point.

Jahmyr Gibbs took a carry 70 yards to the house last week against the Titans and has a 20-yard touch in six straight contests. The volume is never going to reflect that of a prototypical top-10 back, but rules are made to be broken. Gibbs’ skill set, along with the numerous ways this offense can punish defenses, makes him a safe option, even if it’s only 15 touches a game.

James Conner, RB | ARI (vs. CHI)

James Conner has multiple receptions in four straight games and at least 18 carries in four of his past five, with the lone exception being a blowout at the hands of the Packers.

Without much concern of a game script like that, I think we can safely pencil in the veteran back for north of 15 touches. There are a few running backs in tough spots this week (J.K. Dobbins, Rhamondre Stevenson, and Javonte Williams among them) — give me Conner of that group.

James Cook, RB | BUF (vs. MIA)

James Cook has finished four weeks this season as an RB1, and with the Dolphins allowing a touchdown on a league-high 6.1% of running back carries, a fifth is very much within the range of possible outcomes.

Buffalo’s bell cow scored twice in the first meeting while averaging 7.1 yards per carry, a level of efficiency that likely earns him a heavy workload this weekend. On top of the touchdown rate, this Miami defense allows the most yards per carry after contact to running backs, giving the Bills every opportunity to physically dominate this contest.

Cook has earned at least three targets in four games this season, giving him a secondary path to production should the running lanes be plugged and/or Allen vultures the valuable touches.

Javonte Williams, RB | DEN (at BAL)

Williams doesn’t have a carry gaining more than 20 yards this season and built up goodwill from fantasy managers thanks to two strong showings in great spots. Outside of that, have we really been all that impressed?

The fact that he caught 15 passes across four October games is a value-stabilizer, and that’s enough to keep him in the RB2 conversation, but I’m looking for other options with him facing the second-best run defense in the league.

Not only is the Ravens’ front its strength, but Baltimore’s offense has the ability to sustain long drives. I’d be shocked if Williams got the 17 touches that have proven to be something of a floor for him recently, and there’s not enough scoring equity to feel good about with an implied total hovering around 18 points.

Jaylen Wright, RB | MIA (at BUF)

The explosive rookie has caught the eye of Dolphin fans, and with their season trending in the wrong direction, there is a groundswell to get him more involved. That’s all fine and dandy, but it would take a drastic change in philosophy from this coaching staff to make him roster-worthy.

• 33.3%
• 8.8%
• 4.7%

Those are Wright’s snap shares in Weeks 6-8, respectively, since Raheem Mostert returned to the field. Keep Wright’s name in the back of your mind should an injury occur — or even for 2025. But in terms of current fantasy value, there is none to speak of.

Jerome Ford, RB | CLE (vs. LAC)

Ford’s hold on the lead job was fading as the days came off the calendar in September, and that was before Nick Chubb made his season debut. A hamstring injury has cost the 25-year-old consecutive games, and while he may return this week, it shouldn’t matter in most situations.

Despite the success of Week 8, this offense is still volatile, and so is Ford’s running style. I’d be interested if he held the lead role on a run-centric offense like the Chargers, but in this situation, as it stands, Ford (26% of his career carries have failed to gain yardage) doesn’t need to be rostered.

J.K. Dobbins, RB | LAC (at CLE)

I aim to inform, and I found this list ultra-interesting in our quest to predict the future. Here are the top seven producers at the running back position in percentage of points relative to expectations since Week 3:

1. Jahymr Gibbs: +71.6%
2. Derrick Henry: +61.6%
3. James Cook: +39.4%
4. Joe Mixon: +31.1%
5. Bijan Robinson: +27.9%
6. Kenneth Walker III: +23.6%
7. Tyrone Tracy Jr.: 22.8%

And the bottom seven over that stretch:

26. Zack Moss: -12.3%
27. Alexander Mattison: -12.6%
28. Breece Hall: -13.8%
29. Jordan Mason: -14%
30. Alvin Kamara: -15.6%
31. Javonte Williams: -16.2%
32. J.K. Dobbins: -17.5%

Dobbins’ season numbers still look fine, but those are largely the result of those two monster weeks to open the season (122.1% over expectation). This is a low-volume offense, and those situations typically result in touchdowns to pay off fantasy managers.

Dobbins was able to help you out with a short score in Week 8, but that’s not going to be the norm for a team that ranks 31st in the percentage of drives that reach the opponents’ 20-yard line (20.8%, only the Browns have been worse).

The Ravens were able to run against the Browns last season — because they are the Ravens. The two weeks before, Cleveland was the proud owner of the second-best run defense by success rate, a trend that is more than enough to have me second-guessing Dobbins’ stock this weekend.

Dobbins sits at No. 25 in my current running back rankings, as low as I can reasonably put a featured back.

Joe Mixon, RB | HOU (at NYJ)

The veteran running back has cleared 23 PPR points in four of five games this season, a run that includes all three since turning from injury (all with Nico Collins on IR). He’s also earned at least three targets in every game, a role that seems like a lock to remain given the season-ending injury to Stefon Diggs.

Do I worry about a running back with this much usage on his NFL résumé taking 25+ touches consistently? I do, but we are talking about Week 9; in that scope, I’m plenty comfortable in using him as an RB1 against the 19th-ranked rush defense by EPA.

Jonathan Taylor, RB | IND (at MIN)

Some players are eased back from injury, and others are Jonathan Taylor, as he was responsible for 100% of Indianapolis’ running back carries last week in the loss to the Texans. If they aren’t nervous about his health, why should we be?

There are more than a few reasons why this Minnesota boat has taken on water over the past two weeks, but their inability to stop RB1s is certainly a part of it:

• Week 7, Jahmyr Gibbs: 19 touches for 160 yards and two touchdowns
• Week 8, Kyren Williams: 28 touches for 106 yards and one touchdown

Taylor’s role is as favorable as any in the league, and with Anthony Richardson benched, there are next to no threats to Taylor’s role inside the five-yard line. Sign me up for Taylor as a top-five running back the rest of the way.

Jonathon Brooks, RB | CAR (vs. NO)

Brooks is practicing and nearing his NFL debut, but there’s no need for you to try to get ahead of this situation. Chuba Hubbard is running well, and with this team in no position to make a run, they are likely to take a conservative approach with their second-round pick.

He should be rostered across the board, but he won’t rank as a top-30 running back for me until we see him play and be used in a significant way — I’m fine with being a week late rather than a week early.

Josh Jacobs, RB | GB (vs. DET)

Jacobs has scored in three of his past four games after four scoreless efforts to open his Packers career and has finished each of those three weeks as a top-15 performer at the position.

With 18 carries or four catches in five straight games, Jacobs’ role is on the short list of the most favorable in the sport. The Lions have defended receivers well this season (fifth-lowest opponent passer rating when going that direction), and that gives this offense an example they don’t need to feature their bellcow.

In the most important game of Week 9, Jacobs reaching 20 touches for the fifth time this season wouldn’t shock me in the least. He’s currently sitting as my RB10, and that might be closer to his floor than anything. Start him with confidence — this week and every week moving forward.

Kareem Hunt, RB | KC (vs. TB)

Hunt has been worthy of our trust in three straight weeks, and unless this offense makes a U-turn, I’d expect that to continue against the fifth-worst yards-per-carry run defense in the league.

My lone complaint is the target rate. Hunt is being handed the ball 12 times for every target, a rate I’d like to see shrink with time. The addition of DeAndre Hopkins might make that something of a pipedream. Without the plus grade in the versatility department, Hunt will struggle to break into my top 12, but he’s a pretty clear start that you can feel good about right now.

Kenneth Walker III, RB | SEA (vs. LAR)

Walker is already three receptions away from setting a career-high for a season — he has over seven PPR points as a pass catcher in all five of his games since his return from injury.

If the pass-catching floor is here to stay, how much different is he really than Saquon Barkley? That may sound aggressive, but is he not also an explosive back who is in a scoring position every time he touches the ball?

The Rams are allowing the second-most yards per pass when running backs are targets this season, a deficiency that gives Walker a chance to sustain his status as an elite fantasy option. Given the price you paid on draft day, Walker could end up being on the list for MVP in our game this season, and I expect him to show why in this spot — he’s my RB3.

Kyren Williams, RB | LAR (at SEA)

I’m not sure what the more mind-boggling stat is. The fact that Williams has scored in 10 straight games or that just one of his 158 touches has gained more than 17 yards.

I think there’s certainly risk in Williams’ profile (3.8 yards per carry is underwhelming, and an 86.4% catch rate isn’t likely to sustain), with the Rams welcoming back their high-volume receivers who project to soak up plenty of usage in scoring situations. Yet, that results in a minor downtick in rest-of-season value, not an actionable change that will impact your lineup setting this week or any moving forward.

Williams hasn’t finished a week worse than RB21 in nearly 400 days, a run that has seen him produce RB1 numbers in 69.2% of contests. I don’t hate the idea of moving him at a Tier 1 price tag if your roster needs help elsewhere (road games against the 49ers and Jets in Weeks 15-16), though I wouldn’t at all force it as a role like this is rare — even if the metrics raise some minor red flags.

Nick Chubb, RB | CLE (vs. LAC)

Chubb was on the field for 35.1% of Cleveland’s offensive snaps in his return to action in Week 7, a rate that we saw spike to 60.1% in the win over the Ravens a week later.

It’s great to see the role trending in the right direction, but don’t mistake that as an excuse to lock him into your lineups with vintage Chubb expectations.

In his two games this season, Chubb is averaging just 0.1 yards per carry before contact this season, a tough situation for anyone to produce behind, let alone a running back coming off of a devastating knee injury.

Whether that number is the result of poor Cleveland blocking, hesitation on Chubb’s part, or a combination of both, it doesn’t really matter. In those games, without room to gather momentum, his ypc after contact is down 32.7% from his career rate.

Chubb could be an asset when you need him most (Bengals and Dolphins in Weeks 16-17), we just aren’t there yet — not against the Chargers’ defense that is allowing a league-low 1.7 red-zone trips per game.

Rachaad White, RB | TB (at KC)

White has been a top-20 running back in consecutive weeks, though he is walking a fine line after losing a fumble on his second carry last week (only four rush attempts the rest of the way).

Week 7 snap shares:

• Rachaad White: 47.4%
• Bucky Irving: 35.9%
• Sean Tucker: 19.2%

Week 8 snap shares:

• White: 55.6%
• Irving: 41.7%
• Tucker: 11.1%

White’s versatility remains intoxicating because of how quickly the fantasy points can add up. I still prefer Irving because I think he offers similar juice and projects for more touches, but both are reasonable Flex options in a game where Tampa Bay will try to win the time-of-possession battle by way of conservative play-calling.

Raheem Mostert, RB | MIA (at BUF)

Mostert played 33.8% of Miami’s snaps in Week 7 and saw that rate increase to 46.9% last week, a game in which he punched in a score on Tua Tagovailoa’s return to action.

What we saw last week is about what I think we can expect moving forward: 9-12 touches with a reasonable amount of scoring equity. That’s not the profile of a must-start option, but with injuries and byes to consider, a role like that can find its way into your Flex spot.

The Bills are the sixth-best red-zone defense, and that has me more out than in on Mostert. I’d rather go to the other sideline and start Keon Coleman if pressed for a Flex decision.

Ray Davis, RB | BUF (vs. MIA)

The Week 6 explosion against the Jets (152 yards and a touchdown) was fun and gave us clarity when it comes to the proper way to handcuff James Cook, but with just 12 touches total over the past two weeks in two blowouts, he’s not a stand-alone option.

With the Bills trading for Amari Cooper, it sure seems like they are gearing up to put the weight of this season on the shoulders of Josh Allen, and if that’s going to be the case, asking the 220-pound Davis to handle goal-line duties becomes even less likely.

Cook is a bona fide starter and Davis is an insurance policy that is a viable RB2 if pressed into the starting role.

Rhamondre Stevenson, RB | NE (at TEN)

A hard-nosed, three-yard score was good to see last week, and with multiple receptions in six of seven games, Stevenson’s role is what you’re investing in more than anything.

Am I looking to bet on this offense? Of course not, but touches are gold this time of year, and Stevenson has at least 16 of them in five of seven contests. He’s my RB28 this week, a ranking that will improve by a few spots should Drake Maye be ruled active.

Rico Dowdle, RB | DAL (at ATL)

Dowdle was a late scratch on “Sunday Night Football” due to an illness and that left Dallas with an elite 2020 backfield.

The problem? It’s 2024.

The Ezekiel Elliott/Dalvin Cook duo ran for 46 yards on 16 carries and looked about as good as those numbers would suggest. Dowdle out-carried Elliott 20-6 in his last fully healthy game (Cook was inactive), establishing himself as the man atop this depth chart.

Of course, reasonable minds can disagree if that role is meaningful for fantasy football purposes. Dallas ranks eighth in pass rate over expectation, and with the Falcons ranked second-best in terms of yards per running back target, there aren’t many parts of this matchup that I like.

Dowdle’s versatility and relative youth make him my favorite from this backfield, but that doesn’t mean he’s a must-start. I have the fifth-year back ranked as a middling Flex play, ranking in the same tier as RB2s on their own rosters like Austin Ekeler, Raheem Mostert, and his opponent this week in Tyler Allgeier.

Saquon Barkley, RB | PHI (vs. JAX)

With consecutive 100-yard games and four for the season, Barkley has more than proven worthy of the Eagles, and fantasy managers, targeting him this offseason. We haven’t seen the versatility flashed much lately (20 total receiving yards over his past three games), and the Tush Push factor is annoying, but Barkley is as explosive as any back in the game and there’s no reason to think he’s not an elite option moving forward.

The Jaguars own the third-worst goal-to-go defense – the concern isn’t if this team will finish their drives with six points but a question of who gets those carries. Annoying? Yes. Does it impact your redraft decision-making? Not even a little.

Tank Bigsby, RB | JAX (at PHI)

Bigsby has looked explosive at times, but he needs help — in three of his past four games, he’s averaged less than two feet per carry before contact. Even with those limitations, he’s cleared 75 rushing yards in four of his past five games, establishing himself as the lead back in Jacksonville.

I don’t love him in this spot, but the lead role is enough to keep him in most lineups. The Eagles are the sixth-best red-zone defense and allow rushing touchdowns to opposing backs at the third-lowest rate. Bigsby is what he is — a lead back who lacks versatility in a shaky offense.

Tony Pollard, RB | TEN (vs. NE)

Pollard isn’t exciting, but his usage lands him as an RB2 in my rankings every week, and I don’t see that changing any time soon. He’s carried the ball at least 16 times in six of seven games and brought in multiple passes in every game this season, versatility that makes him immune to variable game scripts.

The Patriots own the second-worst goal-to-go defense and the fourth-highest RB rush touchdown rate — flaws that give Pollard enough of a ceiling to play him with confidence this weekend.

Travis Etienne Jr., RB | JAX (at PHI)

Etienne is battling a hamstring injury, but the greater drain on his fantasy potential is the play of Tank Bigsby. The second-year back has established himself as the go-to option in this backfield, and it’s hard to see that changing in the short term.

This season, Etienne’s production is 17.2% below expectation, a drastic dip from his +8.5% rate a season ago. His last 11 carries have picked up just 19 yards, highlighting a disturbing trend in the process.

This year, Etienne’s yards per carry before contact is up 84.6% from last season, but his yards per carry after contact are down 15.3%. Those two numbers aren’t supposed to work in contrast like that — you’d expect a running back who is getting downhill to be more difficult to tackle, but that hasn’t been the case here. To me, this suggests a change in running style and/or a lack of explosion.

It’s discouraging no matter how you explain it. Etienne should remain rostered due to his proximity to a lead role, but there’s no reason for him to be started in any format right now.

Trey Benson, RB | ARI (at NYG)

The rookie has seen his snap share decline in three straight games and hasn’t had a red-zone touch since the second week of the season. James Conner has over 1,500 touches on his NFL résumé and has missed multiple games in every season of his career — Benson is a reasonable stash for those with the luxury to do so, but if I’m in the thick of a playoff hunt and need weekly outs, moving on from Benson is plenty acceptable.

Trey Sermon, RB | IND (at MIN)

After playing the majority of snaps in three straight games, Sermon saw his snap share crater to 14.3% in Sunday’s loss against the Texans and wasn’t handed the ball a single time.

Tyler Goodson out-performed him in a pretty significant way when Jonathan Taylor was on the shelf, making Sermon a roster casualty in all fantasy formats. This roster spot is better used on an all-or-nothing receiver like Gabe Davis or a running back like Jaylen Wright who owns more per-carry upside should he be given the opportunity.

Tyjae Spears, RB | TEN (vs. NE)

A hamstring injury has forced Spears out of consecutive games; while he is thought to be trending in a positive direction, does it matter?

Titans running backs are averaging the fewest yards per carry before contact this season (32.9% less than any other team), something that I find unlikely to change given how little pressure this passing game puts on opposing defenses.

He checks in as a middling Flex assuming that he is fine and Tony Pollard (foot) is inactive — he’s a volume bet in that situation and nothing more. Should both Spears and Pollard sit, Julius Chestnut is the add in desperate situations, but this offensive environment doesn’t make a third-string running back a must play, even if he profiles for a bellcow role.

Spears is an interesting buy in dynasty formats due to a lack of early career usage, but with just one game of more than eight touches in 2024, he’s not someone redraft managers need to keep rostered.

Tyler Allgeier, RB | ATL (vs. DAL)

Allgeier continues to be used just enough to be annoying but not enough to justify playing by himself.

Allgeier carried the ball 12 times against Tampa Bay last week for just 33 yards, usage that has been about what we’ve come to expect. In a game where points shouldn’t be tough to come by, you might be able to get away with him in deep formats or as a DFS pivot off of Bijan Robinson. In that instance, you’re chasing a score and there aren’t many better matchups for that — Dallas has allowed a touchdown on 5.5% of running back carries, the third-highest rate in the league.

Allgeier remains atop my handcuff rankings and is a must-roster option as a result, even if playing him with confidence is unlikely to occur as long as Robinson is active.

Tyler Goodson, RB | IND (at MIN)

Goodson has passed Trey Sermon as the handcuff in which I am most interested in Indy, but he didn’t get his hands on the ball a single time last week against the Texans with Jonathan Taylor back in the mix. He’s a luxury stash in the deepest of formats at best – you’re more than welcome to cut ties after trying to extract value from this backfield with Taylor on the shelf.

Tyrone Tracy Jr., RB | NYG (vs. WAS)

If there was any question as to who sits atop this depth chart, it’s gone now. Long gone.

Tracy piled up 145 rushing yards in Week 8, the most by a rookie drafted in the fifth round or later since Phillip Lindsay (Week 13, 2018, at Bengals: 157 rush yards). He was likely to take over this backfield with time given that the team views him as a part of their future, but it seems that he has forced their hand — I’m now giving him two-thirds of the running back touches in New York and I feel good about it.

The rookie is an RB2 for me this week assuming health (concussion protocol, a situation to monitor as lineup lock approaches), facing the worst per-carry defense in the NFL (second most yards per carry allowed before contact and sixth worst in success rate). The limitations of this offense will result in some ranking fluctuation, but in this matchup, I’m starting him without reservation.

Zach Charbonnet, RB | SEA (vs. LAR)

Charbonnet hasn’t had more than eight touches in a game since the middle of September, and with Kenneth Walker III playing at potentially the highest level of his career, it’s tough to see Charbonnet’s backup role extending in any sort of meaningful way.

We are talking about a strong handcuff, and that’s valuable, but he’s not a threat to hold stand-alone value.

Zack Moss, RB | CIN (vs. LV)

Late-week injury downgrades are never what you want to see. On Friday, Zack Moss (neck) was added to the Cincinnati Bengals’ injury report for the first time this week. Given that he didn’t pop up until the end of the week, Moss was likely injured during practice.

He’s considered doubtful for Sunday’s game against the Raiders. Assuming Moss can’t go, fellow Bengals RB Chase Brown should receive a full workload in Week 9. Trayveon Williams is the only other back on Cincinnati’s active roster, and he hasn’t played an offensive snap this season.

Las Vegas represents a decent fantasy matchup for Brown. The Raiders’ defense ranks in the middle of the pack in EPA per rush and rushing success rate but has given up the 10st-most fantasy points to opposing RBs. However, Brown likely won’t have left tackle Orlando Brown Jr. (doubtful; knee/fibula) blocking for him on Sunday.

Week 9 Fantasy Football Wide Receivers

Adam Thielen, WR | CAR (vs. NO)

The veteran receiver has missed five straight games due to a hamstring injury but was designated for a return last week and could get back on the field this weekend against a Saints team that is taking on water.

There’s no actionable advice here — not yet. The Panthers have their bye in Week 11, so stashing Thielen this week only to drop him for roster help isn’t a sound strategy. I find it unlikely that a Bryce Young target is going to be consistently worth our while, but fantasy championships are won by those who keep tabs on everything.

I’ll be watching both Young and Thielen in the coming weeks. The Panthers get the Cardinals in Week 16 and the Bucs in Week 17; those matchups are juicy enough to have my attention.

A.J. Brown, WR | PHI (vs. JAX)

Everything in Brown’s advanced profile is up except for his involvement in the red zone (targeted on 12.5% of his red-zone routes, down from 26.3% a year ago), and I’m willing to write that off as something that will come around with time.

Could he be the slate breaker you need in a DFS or Guillotine league? The Jaguars own the lowest blitz rate in the league thus far (14.2%), and Brown has turned 20 targets into 15 catches for 333 yards and three trips to the end zone when Hurts isn’t blitzed.

Brown is coming off of the worst game by his insane standards of the season and he might follow it up with his best.

Alec Pierce, WR | IND (at MIN)

Remember when Pierce had 38.1 fantasy points through two weeks and fantasy nation wondered if they had stumbled upon a game-changer in the late rounds of their drafts?

Fun times.

He has 35.3 points in the six games since, and 13.5 came on a single catch. Any week in which Anthony Richardson is healthy is a week that Pierce could return value — but it’s also a week that the lowest-ranked signal caller in our QB+ metric can render him completely useless. That’s not going to be the case in the short term with Richardson benched, though an increase in mean QB play isn’t to be viewed as a negative.

If you’re dealing with a depleted roster and fighting an uphill battle, go ahead and buy this lottery ticket, even with Flacco under center, against the defense with the 10th-highest opponent completion percentage on deep passes. If you have a competitive roster, it’s because you’ve avoided players like Pierce, and I’d keep with the status quo in that situation.

Allen Lazard, WR | NYJ (vs. HOU)

A chest injury resulted in Allen Lazard sitting last week. We shouldn’t be surprised that he is dinged up, as Lazard has completed just one season (2019) from start to finish in his NFL career.

Could he return on a short work week against an average defense? It’s possible, but nothing I saw from Lazard’s usage in Davante Adams’ debut with the team suggested that he should be rostered, let alone Flexed.

In Week 7, Lazard’s on-field target share fell from 17.3% to 16%, and his slot rate from 41.6% to 28.1%. I’d imagine those rates only decline further with time, and that’s assuming full health.

If you wanted to play the “Aaron Rodgers trusts him” narrative and overlook a dip in scoring equity or layup targets, I might bite. But without both seemingly evaporating, you’re chasing what has happened with Lazard this season as opposed to projecting forward.

We get back into the bye-week flow this week, which is going to result in some roster decisions. For my money, if you’re playing Lazard, you’re desperate, and if you’re desperate, why not bet on a player like Gabe Davis (big-play threat with Christian Kirk out for the season) or Cedric Tillman moving forward?

Amari Cooper, WR | BUF (vs. MIA)

Amari Cooper played just one-third of the snaps in his Buffalo debut and was extended to 50.7% in the blowout win over Seattle in Week 8. His usage patterns have not been too noteworthy (slightly less slot usage due to Khalil Shakir’s presence) as we haven’t seen enough routes to make any firm claims.

We’ve seen Cooper win big in the lead role, and I tend to think that is what is most likely to occur as the season progresses. Shakir is currently my highest-ranked receiver on this team, though I think there are three very playable options.

Remember last December when Cooper finished with a bang (22 catches, 451 yards, and three scores over the final three weeks)? I’m not suggesting we see something similar this year, but with the Rams, Lions, and Patriots on the books for Weeks 15-17, his best could come at the perfect time.

Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR | DET (at GB)

That’s now five straight games with a touchdown for St. Brown, as he has added scoring savant to the tools already in his expansive bag. Is there anything he can’t do?

His aDOT is down a tick this season, something that could make him slightly less appealing in this specific matchup against a Packers defense that is constantly attacked downfield (fifth highest opponent aDOT), but we are nitpicking at the tippy-top of the ranking board.

St. Brown cleared 16.5 PPR points in both games against the Cheeseheads a season ago, and expecting similar production on Sunday is plenty fair.

Brian Thomas Jr., WR | JAX (at PHI)

Initial reports of Thomas’ chest injury suggested that we were looking at an absence of up to a month, but Doug Pederson said on Monday that an MRI revealed just a contusion and that his star rookie was to be labeled as “day-to-day.”

It should be noted that we’ve seen day-to-day injuries drag on for weeks and week-to-week injuries result in only a few missed days. So, yeah, you’re going to want to keep tabs on this situation before making any final decisions.

If Thomas is active, he’s a starter; he’s earned that level of trust with a 28+ yard catch and a touchdown in four of his past five games. I loved to see the season-high slot usage (34.5% of routes) last weekend, as it showcases his versatility.

Time will tell if Thomas is the best receiver in this class. That’s an argument for another day, but he’s a locked-in fantasy starter when active, and that’s not going to change any time soon.

Calvin Ridley, WR | TEN (vs. NE)

Calvin Ridley’s 118 first-quarter receiving yards were the 10th most in a first quarter since the start of 2015 and came out of nowhere, given that he entered the game with 56 receiving yards in his previous four games.

The next three quarters played out like the first seven weeks (25 receiving yards), and that is why Ridley still doesn’t make it into Fltex conversations for me. His role is clear, and the targets aren’t going anywhere, but the floor/ceiling combination isn’t worth it.

He’s the unquestioned alpha in an offense that is going to be playing from behind consistently, and somehow he has one — count ‘em, one — end-zone target. You’re chasing 15 good minutes and overlooking a month of struggles, and that’s a good way to lose ground in your fantasy standings.

Cedric Tillman, WR | CLE (vs. LAC)

Jameis Winston was spreading the ball around in his first start, but it was clear that the 6’3″ Tillman had his trust from the jump (7-99-2). Sure, one of those scores was on a defensive miscommunication, but Winston made the Ravens pay for it, something we didn’t see from this Browns passing game under Deshaun Watson.

You likely added Tillman this week, and I think you bought in on his upside, but I’d be surprised if he ran away with the Flex role on your roster. At the time of his third-quarter touchdown, Tillman was one of four Browns targeted at least five times on Winston’s first 27 passes.

In a similar way that Joe Flacco is going to bring professionalism to Indianapolis, I expect Winston to do that in Cleveland — it’s good for the team but not great for fantasy managers.

Tillman is my WR40 this week. I think he’s a good player with a safe role, though painting Winston as a consistent QB is not a step I’m ready to take. The Chargers simply don’t play in fantasy-friendly games (their next game with 40 total points scored will be their first this season).

CeeDee Lamb, WR | DAL (at ATL)

Lamb is easily pacing for a third straight season north of 150 targets, and the Cowboys showed last week that they aren’t shy about going in that direction on every single down once they establish him early until the opposition proves they have an answer.

He accounted for the majority of Dallas’ receptions last week in San Francisco, not an outcome that most have in their profiles. The Falcons haven’t yet allowed a receiver to crack 19 PPR fantasy points this season, but they’ve also struggled to keep opposing WR1s out of the end zone (Mike Evans, Rashee Rice, DK Metcalf, and Diontae Johnson all scored in this matchup).

You’re splitting hairs at the top of the WR board every week. Lamb checks in as my WR4 (my WR1 Tier 1 is five players long), and while I’ll pay up elsewhere in a DFS setting, no one is going to have a problem with you going in this direction.

Chris Olave, WR | NO (at CAR)

Olave missed a game with a concussion and then was banged up again last week before turning in his most involved effort of the season. The star receiver was targeted on 31.1% of his routes, and if we are going to continue to get well-below-average play under center in New Orleans, it’s going to take that sort of involvement to make him an option.

Head injuries are difficult to judge, and while we can’t predict them, there is a level of risk you take on when starting a player who has battled recent issues.

With Derek Carr back, Olave bumps into my top 20 with ease and isa play across all formats.

Christian Kirk, WR | JAX (at PHI)

Kirk had a nice three-game run in Weeks 3-5, but he’s underwhelmed ever since and won’t get the opportunity to make right for fantasy managers after his season came to an end in Week 8 due to a broken collarbone.

Fantasy managers can safely cut ties with him in all redraft formats and try to find an upside option on the waiver wire. In doing so, I’d look elsewhere than his direct replacement in Jacksonville, as it isn’t the least bit clear.

Slot usage in Jacksonville, 2024:

• Kirk: 77.5%
• Evan Engram: 33.8%
• Brenton Strange: 30.6%
• Brian Thomas Jr.: 23.9%
• Gabe Davis: 17.6%
• Travis Etienne Jr.: 1.1%

Christian Watson, WR | GB (vs. DET)

Watson has a pair of big gains this season (37 and 44 yards), but that’s about all his 2024 résumé has on it. Outside of those two grabs, the burner is averaging 0.94 yards per route this season, a rate that doesn’t deserve our interest at all.

If you squint hard enough, you might be able to mine value from Watson in specific spots (I have my eyes on the Thanksgiving date with the Dolphins), but this isn’t one of them. Through eight weeks, the Lions have the fifth-lowest opponent passer rating on deep passes; that’s enough to talk me out of swinging for the fences.

For the record, the run-centric, low-octane (6.7 aDOT) stylings of Malik Willis will have Watson off my radar for any starts he makes.

Cooper Kupp, WR | LAR (at SEA)

Eight targets. Touchdown.

Kupp returned last Thursday after missing more than a month and gave you his standard production. Did you know that, since the start of 2021, playoffs included, Tyreek Hill is the only player with more games of eight targets and a touchdown reception?

Being on a list with Hill is great without any context, but when you recall that Kupp has missed 17 games over that stretch, it’s downright silly. Nacua’s early usage was the primary takeaway for most, and that’s not wrong — though it shouldn’t be overlooked that Kupp saw an end-zone target on the first drive and capped the second one with a score as Stafford had an out-of-body scrambling moment.

Kupp can be trusted in all formats, which should go without saying. If you like Nacua? No worries.

When the Lions faced this Seahawks defense, both Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams scored. Deebo Samuel Sr. and George Kittle scored on three of their eight catches in this spot in Week 6, and just 10 days later, Kyle Pitts and Drake London accounted for the majority of Atlanta’s receptions against Seattle’s secondary.

Courtland Sutton, WR | DEN (at BAL)

One week after playing 86.9% of the snaps and not seeing a single target, Sutton hauled in eight of 11 looks for his first 100-yard game since Week 2, 2022.

Such is life in a Bo Nix-led offense.

While I like what I’ve seen from the rookie QB, he’s a ways away from leading a stable fantasy offense, and I fear that this peaks-and-valleys season that Sutton has going (three games with 15+ points and three with under 5.5) is what we can expect moving forward.

I don’t mind players like that in a stable situation. It’s not ideal, but I can talk myself through it being a Xaiver Worthy week in Kansas City or a Christian Watson week in Green Bay thanks to their quarterback’s ability to exploit very specific matchup edges.

It doesn’t always work, but I can feel good about my process with players like that. Sutton doesn’t fall into that bucket. He lit up Carolina last week, but his other recent strong performances have come against well above average secondaries (Chargers and Jets) while the woeful Saints shut him out and the Raiders held him to 5.2 PPR points.

He’s a random number generator. As long as you label him as such, you’re free to do whatever you’d like with him because you know what you’re signing up for. That’s my job — to make you a well-informed consumer.

I’d rather take smaller swings and, therefore, will never have Sutton ranked as a top-30 receiver.

Darius Slayton, WR | NYG (vs. WAS)

Despite what we saw last week (108 receiving yards against the Steelers), I’m still labeling Slayton as nothing more than a Malik Nabers handcuff. The 43-yard catch on Daniel Jones’ first pass in Pittsburgh was fun, but is it predictive?

Before Week 8, Slayton’s production was at least 30% under expectations in the three most recent games that included a healthy Nabers; when you factor in a limited target share in those spots, that’s a damning profile.

This is a tempting matchup, especially if you think this game shoots out, but I’m not excited about the WR2 in an offense as inconsistent as this one.

Darnell Mooney, WR | ATL (vs. DAL)

Mooney’s value given his summer ADP has been nothing short of special, as he has a 25-yard catch or a touchdown in five of his past seven games. He’s been a reliable WR2 for the Falcons and a viable Flex play for fantasy managers this season, though I worry about his status as such this weekend.

Target rate when Kirk Cousins is blitzed, 2024:

• Drake London: 33.9%
• Mooney: 21.3%

Target rate when Cousins is not blitzed, 2024:

• London: 22.3%
• Mooney: 21.6%

With the Cowboys blitzing at the seventh-highest rate this season (30%), I fear that a low-volume day could result in a single-digit performance. I do think this game sees plenty of points put on the board, so getting a piece of the action isn’t an awful idea. However, if you have a few similar options (Keon Coleman and Ladd McConkey types), I’d go in the other direction.

Davante Adams, WR | NYJ (vs. HOU)

DeAndre Hopkins and Amari Cooper were eased into their new situations post-trade, a ramp-up period that Adams didn’t need given his familiarity with Aaron Rodgers (94.6% snap share in his two weeks with the squad).

He may not have needed time to digest the playbook, but it’s clear that he needs time to find his form. In those two games, he’s turned 15 targets into just 15.4 PPR fantasy points. I think it’s pretty easy to assume that better times are ahead, though the 8.4-yard aDOT is interesting.

Part of what made the Rodgers/Adams connection special was their unspoken communication down the field and in scoring situations. I don’t doubt that they still have it, but we’ve yet to see it. Adams is a middling WR2 until proven otherwise, especially if it’s going to be Garrett Wilson as the featured option when it comes to field stretching.

DeAndre Hopkins, WR | KC (vs. TB)

Hopkins pulled down a 13-yard pass on Kansas City’s third play in his debut with the team; that was great to see, but it taught us very little.

I think this week and next will be informative and could prove to be a set of games that you come back to when all is said and done. What role does Hopkins fill in this offense? Do they get creative with him and ask Xavier Worthy to stretch the field, or do they move Worthy around and ask the veteran to make the contested plays he’s done for a decade?

If I roster Hopkins, I want the latter. I’m confident that he can prove to be the most efficient player on those passes in this offense, something I’m not as confident in regarding the shorter targets given Travis Kelce’s presence.

Hopkins was on the field for just 32.4% of the Chiefs snaps last week in the win against the Raiders. I’d expect one more ramp-up week before he’s a full-time player, and that gives me enough pause to rank him as an average Flex option, even in a game against the ninth-worst pass defense in terms of passer rating.

Demarcus Robinson, WR | LAR (at SEA)

Robinson scoring twice on Thursday night was cute and saved you if you elected to play him with the thought that his banged-up returning teammates were going to be limited, but he’s on his way off of fantasy radars.

Despite a 90.3% snap share this season (83% in Week 8), Robinson hasn’t earned more than five targets in a game since Week 1. That’s not going to change moving forward. His 17.9-yard aDOT, in theory, should come preloaded with upside. But with Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua capable of winning their routes in such a hurry, why would Matthew Stafford give Robinson time to operate downfield?

Dropping a receiver after a two-touchdown game isn’t easy, but it’s viable should you be in a roster crunch. The play might be to look for a minor upgrade in a trade somewhere in your starting lineup — a deal that sees you upgrade your RB2 for your current RB2 and Robinson, or something along those lines. Refining your roster in ways like that can prove to be the difference between winning your title and coming up just short.

DeMario Douglas, WR | NE (at TEN)

“Pop” averages just 9.7 yards per catch this season, something I’m willing to overlook if the volume is safe, but it hasn’t been. Not consistently, at least.

Douglas has exactly three or nine targets in six straight games. Not only is that one of the weirder stats I’ve crossed this week, but it’s enough to outright dismiss the chain mover as a viable option. This offense is too limited to invest in inconsistencies, and that’s what we are currently getting from Douglas.

There’s a world in which a player like Douglas thrives in a Drake Maye system, but we aren’t close to that at the moment.

DeVonta Smith, WR| PHI (vs. JAX)

Any worries about his ability to make plays were dismissed by a pretty over-the-shoulder 45-yard TD (all air yards), as Jalen Hurts had no reservations about going his way in single coverage. That may sound simple, but given the resources that opponents have to devote to A.J. Brown and this ground game, single coverage is going to be the norm.

There will be matchups where my ranking gap between Brown and Smith is 15-20 spots, but that’s not the case in this one. The Jaguars allow the fourth-highest passer rating when opponents throw to their receivers, and Smith, whose aDOT is 28.8% lower than Brown’s, profiles as the primary beneficiary due to Jacksonville owning the third-lowest opponent average depth of throw.

Smith gives the Eagles a lead with a few big plays and Gabe Davis is on the receiving end of a bomb with the Jags in catch-up mode — who says no to this skinny DFS stack?

Diontae Johnson, WR | BAL (vs. DEN)

Johnson was dealt from Carolina to Baltimore on Tuesday, as big a team trajectory change as he could possibly hope for. He’s plenty capable of winning in the slot, but he moved outside more this year when playing alongside Adam Thielen.

While Zay Flowers isn’t as pigeonholed role-wise as the aging Thielen, I expect his 39.6% slot participation to sustain, thus requiring Todd Monken to be creative when it comes to the usage of his newest chess piece.

We’ve seen plenty of receivers moved over the past few weeks (DeAndre Hopkins, Amari Cooper, etc.), and they’ve been eased into action. I suspect that will be the case here. That means I’m taking a cautious approach.

Johnson is a Flex play for me this week, understanding that better days are ahead. This trade elevates his status for the remainder of the regular season. While I think he takes a little food off the plate of Flowers, it’s the tight end position that will be most impacted for our purposes.

DJ Moore, WR | CHI (at ARI)

Once over the past month has Moore reached 30 receiving yards in a game. He did it in style (105 yards and two scores in the Week 5 win over the Panthers), but a 25% hit rate for that threshold isn’t exactly what we are looking for.

More concerning than the raw box score numbers is that Moore has posted his two worst target-share-rate games of the season in Chicago’s past two. I’m inclined to write off the recent struggles as part of the learning curve with a rookie QB, but I’m nervous.

This, however, profiles as a nice get-right spot. The Cardinals own the second-highest opponent passer rating on receiver targets and are a bottom-10 unit when it comes to defending short passes (yards per attempt). Moore’s slot usage has ticked lately, and that should allow him to return viable Flex numbers in a game that Vegas has labeled as a coin flip.

Moore’s slot usage rates, 2024:

• Week 3 at Colts: 2.5% of routes
• Week 4 vs. Rams: 14.3% of routes
• Week 5 vs. Panthers: 18% of routes
• Week 6 vs. Jaguars: 31.4% of routes
• Week 8 at Commanders: 17.5% of routes

I have dreams that Caleb Williams will funnel targets to his WR1 moving forward the way he did to open his career (28 targets through Week 3 and 23 since), and if the quality of those looks is improved, we could be onto something coming down the stretch of the fantasy season.

DK Metcalf, WR | SEA (vs. LAR)

Metcalf got the “week-to-week” designation last week due to a Grade 1 MCL sprain. While he wasn’t officially ruled out until the last minute, he never appeared to be likely to play last week. Does the dragging out of his status last week indicate that his rehab could be ahead of pace?

It’s possible, and there’s no two ways about it, this is a situation you’re going to have to watch all week long (we will have you covered with plenty of content around his injury and the receiver position as a whole that seems to be cursed). That said, Metcalf managers should gain comfort given the opponent …

• Five touchdowns in his past six games against the Rams
• At least eight targets in five of his past seven games against the Rams
• Career: 31.1% production over fantasy expectation against the Rams

I worry about the touchdown equity, something that sounds crazy for a beat like Metcalf who has earned five end-zone targets over his past three games, but hear me out. The Rams have been above average in most scoring metrics against the pass. Metcalf, despite the looks in the paint, has been targeted on just 20.8% of his red-zone routes. For reference, his rate was 38% in 2022 and 33.3% last season.

In season-long formats, if he plays, you play him. Easy. In DFS, however, the 57.4% catch rate and declining red-zone usage numbers have me looking elsewhere if spending up at the receiver position.

Dontayvion Wicks, WR | GB (vs. DET)

The tools are in place for Wicks to be a one-off option in the perfect spot, but it would appear that such a spot isn’t going to be projectable barring an injury.

Wicks has been on the field for just 28% of Green Bay’s offensive snaps over the past three weeks, and I don’t care how highly you think of Jordan Love, that’s simply not enough to make him a reasonable Flex option.

On an encouraging note, Wicks’ target rate (targets divided by routes) is up to 28.6% this season, up from 20.4% last season. There are some positive trends to support this profile as a fantasy-viable one with time, but we aren’t there yet.

For the remainder of 2024, unless something changes in a big way, I’m viewing Wicks as a top-10 receiver handcuff more than a player with a realistic hope of working his way into a meaningful role without help.

Drake London, WR | ATL (vs. DAL)

London has scored on or seen an end-zone target in six of his past seven games as Kirk Cousins continues to use him as discount Justin Jefferson, a role that carries a top-12 upside.

His target-earning ability hasn’t taken off in a major way, but with his slot role nearly doubling, his production floor is that of a fantasy difference-maker. Among 42 qualifiers, London leads the way in the percentage of red-zone routes that result in a target (42.9%, WR average: 24.2%). That role has him leading my DFS lineup this week against the worst red-zone defense in the league (Dallas allows a touchdown on 73.9% of opponent trips).

Gabe Davis, WR | JAX (at PHI)

Before getting dinged up last week, Davis had been on the field for over 67% of Jacksonville’s snaps in every game this season.

While his ability to earn looks from Trevor Lawrence has been underwhelming, he’s likely to be force-fed targets in this spot with the Jags a 7.5-point underdog and without their two top receivers for the foreseeable future (Christian Kirk is out for the season and Brian Thomas Jr.’s timeline is fluid but seems to be on the wrong side of questionable as of today).

Veterans know the deal with Davis; new players, consider yourselves lucky. The only consistent portion of Davis up to this point in his career is inconsistency, so take this sales pitch for what it is: an optimistic view of a profile that comes with as much risk as any player even remotely on your radar.

Lawrence’s deep completion percentage is trending for a career-best, and that is even more impressive when you consider that his average long pass is traveling further this year than in years past.

Davis is averaging 15.2 PPR PPG for his career when seeing at least seven targets per game, a potential he could well fulfill in an expanded role against an Eagles defense that ranks worse than the league average against the deep pass in passer rating, yards per completion, and touchdown rate.

Scared money doesn’t make money — but hopefully, you have different income options.

Garrett Wilson, WR | NYJ (vs. HOU)

The addition of Davante Adams was certainly a blow to Wilson’s ceiling, but it doesn’t undo the foundational connection that seems to have been laid between him and Aaron Rodgers. Last week, he hauled in a 35-yard pass despite being interfered with and saw his first three catches gain over 25 yards.

Wilson isn’t going to be the target vacuum we expected him to be entering this season, but Rodgers is looking his way consistently deep down the field, and that creates a nice weekly ceiling in the right spots.

Is this one of those spots?

I think so. No defense has seen opponents average a higher depth of throw to receivers than the Texans (13.6 yards). Factoring into that trend is the fact that Houston has been increasingly likely to blitz despite limited success in doing so (20th in pressure rate when bringing an extra defender).

Wilson carries a similar risk to players in the middle of my WR2 tier (Marvin Harrison Jr. and Amari Cooper, for example), but I’d argue that his big-play profile in this spot gives him the edge in ceiling outcomes over players of that ilk.

Jake Bobo, WR | SEA (vs. LAR)

The thought process with taking a flier on Bobo last week with DK Metcalf out proved reasonable (74.5% snap share), but when investing in a Geno Smith-led offense, you know the risks are a part of the equation.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba vacuumed in seven of the 12 receiver targets in the lopsided loss, and while I expect him to be the featured option, that rate of involvement is unlikely to be sustained. I think this is a better spot, and my thought process remains.

Bobo is a reasonable DFS punt play should Metcalf sit. Heck, he might be a better contrarian play this week than last thanks to a more favorable matchup and fewer people willing to stick their hand over the flame again.

This season, the Seahawks are a bottom-three defense when opponents throw to the perimeter in terms of passer rating, yards per pass, and touchdown rate. The Rams’ offense should continue to trend in the right direction as it nears full strength; if Seattle is playing from behind, the 6’4″ Bobo has access to a strong per-dollar production role.

Jakobi Meyers, WR | LV (at CIN)

What made Meyers good on Sunday? A season-low 5.8-yard aDOT and 42.2% slot usage (under 23% in each of his two games before his injury), which is the only path for me to trust anyone in an offense as limited as it is.

Meyers showcased the ability to make the most of this situation last season with eight scores, and while this situation is a little different sans Davante Adams, he’s back on the Flex radar against the sixth-worst red-zone defense in the league.

The game script figures to work in his favor, and if we can get him 8-10 targets, the percentages say that a top-35 week is likely. For reference, I’d rather play Meyers in his new role as the WR1 in Vegas than Tank Dell operating under the same promotion in Houston.

Jalen McMillan, WR | TB (at KC)

Snaps (90%) and looks (seven targets) weren’t the issue last week, and that’s a positive as we look to build super teams. We thought that he would fill the Mike Evans role, and his 14.6-yard aDOT would suggest that was accurate, but it turns out that you can’t just plug in a rookie and assume he’ll replicate the production of a future Hall of Famer.

Evans will miss another game, and that puts McMillan on the Flex radar, though I’m not crazy about tempting fate against a top-10 defense in terms of pressure rate and yards per pass.

The rookie settles in as my WR39, ranking in the same tier of usable waiver wire additions as Jake Bobo and Cedric Tillman.

Jalen Tolbert, WR | DAL (at ATL)

I maintain my thought that Tolbert’s role as the WR2 in this offense gives him a path to Flex value (he’s produced over expectations in five straight games), but even I can’t express much in the way of short-term optimism.

Despite the Cowboys ranking eighth in pass rate over expectation this season, Tolbert has crossed 50 receiving yards in just one of his past five games. Watching the 25-year-old is my suggestion, but I have no problem if you want to watch him from a distance.

Ja’Lynn Polk, WR | NE (at TEN)

The rookie has passed through concussion protocol and was not listed on New England’s final injury report.

Polk went through the entire month of October without a multi-catch effort, and his 0.44 yards per route this season is closing in on disturbing. Dynasty managers will be watching any reps with Drake Maye carefully, but that’s the extent of the fantasy interest right now in the 37th overall pick.

Ja’Marr Chase, WR | CIN (vs. LV)

Chase has scored seven times over his past six games, looking downright unguardable at times. All of his efficiency metrics are trending toward career bests, and against a Raiders team that is one of three to have a higher blitz rate than pressure rate this season, it’s not hard to imagine a comfortable Joe Burrow giving his top target opportunities to break this game open.

My ranking of Chase will not move in a meaningful way based on Tee Higgins’ status — his role is as safe as anyone’s in the league.

Jameson Williams, WR | DET (at GB)

The Year 3 breakout is on hold for at least one more week as he finishes serving his PED suspension, but Williams has more legal troubles surrounding him. This is a situation you’ll want to monitor, but for the time being, he’s a strong option to hold — we’ve seen glimpses of development, and the tools are in place for him to return weekly value.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR | SEA (vs. LAR)

Is the breakout coming? The second-year receiver has seen his target rate increase in each of the past three weeks, picking up usage as a result of DK Metcalf’s injury. The involvement is one thing, but the ability to make the most of those opportunities is another.

Last week, JSN produced 11.1% over expectation, a massive step forward from his 32.8% below expectation mark from his previous four games. The Rams create pressure at the fifth-highest rate this season, something that elevates Smith-Njigba’s projectable usage from the slot.

I’m not hesitating to plug in Seattle’s short-yardage specialist in this game. His ranking will fall back a few spots should Metcalf return but not enough to knock him out of his current “feel fine about starting me” tier.

Jayden Reed, WR | GB (vs. DET)

Reed set up the game-winning field goal last week courtesy of a 51-yard catch and run that came from Malik Willis, further cementing his status as the unquestioned top option in this potent passing attack

The Lions allow the fifth-fewest yards per catch after the reception this season, and that could neutralize Reed’s greatest strength to a degree, but this team has proved plenty capable of getting Reed opportunities (he had 10 of them with a touchdown against Detroit last Thanksgiving). I see no reason to think that chances in this spot.

Jaylen Waddle, WR | MIA (at BUF)

In the much-awaited return of Tua Tagovailoa, Waddle managers were left disappointed.

• 2024: 8.3 PPG, 4.4% under expectation, and 17.6% target rate
• Week 8: 8.5 PPG, 12.7% under expectation, and 17.6% target rate

It’s almost eerie how similar those numbers are. Is Tagovailoa more a vessel for Tyreek Hill returning to form than Waddle?

I’m not sure I’d go that far, but Hill certainly was the priority against the Cardinals, and I’m expecting that to be the case until proven otherwise. It should be noted that Waddle had a pair of drops last week, receptions that, if made, paint a very different picture.

In my opinion, there’s a pretty clear target hierarchy in Miami. That doesn’t mean that Waddle can’t have an impact, he’s a borderline WR2 for me this week, but it does take some of the shine off of his potential. The Bills hardly blitz (16.1%, second lowest), and I think that’s a good spot for Waddle to rack up the receptions underneath as Buffalo shades coverage toward Hill.

Without the drops last week, we are looking at roughly 13 PPR points, a number that essentially mirrors my projection this week.

Jerry Jeudy, WR | CLE (vs. LAC)

Five catches for 79 yards may not seem like a step forward, but I promise you, as someone who has been admittedly too high on Jeudy this season, this is good to see.

• Weeks 1-7: 15.6% on-field target share, 18.1% below production expectation, and 52% catch rate
• Week 8: 18.6% on-field target share, 0.3% below expectation, and 62.5% catch rate

As I said, we aren’t celebrating a full-fledged breakout, but there were some breadcrumbs laid last week, and that nourishment is welcomed with open arms by starving Jeudy managers.

Now, that production does need to be contextualized, as it came against one of the most vulnerable pass defenses in the league. And we have years of evidence to suggest that the Jameis Winston experience isn’t a ride that comes without twists and turns. I’m sitting on my Jeudy stock right now, and that’s a step up from the sell position I was toying with in the Deshaun Watson era.

I’m just going to leave this here: Jeudy was a top-10 receiver in Dec. 2022.

Jordan Addison, WR | MIN (vs. IND)

Is Addison that much different than Darius Slayton at this point? The pedigree is on a different level, but when it comes to their roles in 2024, they are deep threats (Addison aDOT: 17.9) that are largely involved when their WR1 is healthy. If Justin Jefferson were to get hurt, I’d go to Addison with similar excitement as I did with Slayton sans Malik Nabers. Without that, we aren’t looking at a roster-worthy player, let alone a Flex option.

Addison has been on the field for over 84% of Minnesota’s offensive snaps in three straight games, and he hasn’t finished as a top-50 producer at the position in any of those contests. If Sam Darnold is turning into a pumpkin, it’s not going to cost Jefferson looks and T.J. Hockenson might be pumpkin-proof when he returns — Addison is the one getting squeezed.

Thanks to a rookie season with an elevated touchdown rate, Addison can remain rostered. But, for me, he’s closer to a lineup casualty than a legitimate Flex option.

Josh Downs, WR | IND (at MIN)

Downs certainly looked like the best receiver on this team last week, hauling in a 69-yard touchdown pass from Anthony Richardson and nearly having a 25-yarder later, a play that was reversed from a score to a 24-yard gain courtesy of review.

He might be the best fantasy option among the pass catchers in this offense moving forward, but with Joe Flacco taking over, we get a professional offensive approach, and that is a pair for fantasy managers.

Or is it?

Yes, his seven touchdown passes this season have gone to five different players and that’s annoying. But, in this admittedly small sample size, Downs has been targeted on 34.5% of his routes. For reference, Tyreek Hill was the only player to post a rate like that in 2023.

The type of target is obviously going to look very different between Flacco and Robinson. The depth of target will shrink, but the percentage of targets that are actually in his zip code skyrockets, and that makes him a fine Flex play in all formats against a Vikings defense that is routinely challenged underneath instead of over the top (sixth-lowest opponent aDOT this season).

JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR | KC (vs. TB)

Smith-Schuster sat out Week 8 with a hamstring injury (Andy Reid ruled him out on Monday, indicating that a week of rest was needed). If that wasn’t bad enough, the team brought in DeAndre Hopkins via trade.

In theory, Hopkins eats more into the role of Xavier Worthy, and I think that’s right. But we’ve seen the future Hall of Famer showcase route versatility when asked. That brings in risk for Smith-Schuster, a receiver who needs full slot exposure to pay off.

I’ll want to see him fail before assuming it, but this is a low-octane offense that no longer is going to assign the same size of the pie to Smith-Schuster. With the bye week behind him and receivers falling like flies, this is a rosterable player until proven otherwise — just be prepared for the “otherwise” to occur sooner than later.

Justin Jefferson, WR | MIN (vs. IND)

In the first quarter against the Rams on Thursday night, Jefferson hauled in all five of his targets for 68 yards (his teammates had just three catches), but it was Trent Sherfield Sr. and Josh Oliver with the scores. Annoying, but it happens. You take that elite usage and efficiency from Jefferson and understand that you are fortunate enough to have the best receiver in the sport on your roster.

Jefferson submitted a bid for the catch of the year with a bobbling, toe-drag reception, the icing on the cake as he continued his impressive season-opening streak that has seen him clear 90 receiving yards or score every time he’s taken the field.

Brian Thomas Jr. and Nico Collins were heavily featured receivers earlier this season against Indianapolis — they both cleared 115 receiving yards while leaving a few plays on the field. Jefferson is matchup-proof, and when facing a vulnerable defense, he could well take over this slate.

Kalif Raymond, WR | DET (at GB)

I’m as guilty as anyone when it comes to preaching “bad result, good process” when it comes to calls that go sideways, but it’s important to note that there are two sides to that coin.

I was in on Kalif Raymond last week, as I projected him to take on a greater role following the Jameson Williams suspension, and I wanted any exposure I could get to this passing game.

I was right! He scored 15.4 fantasy points and finished the week as WR26. If you started him over Malik Nabers, A.J. Brown, and Tyreek Hill … you’re welcome.

I kid. Obviously, you didn’t make those calls, but more importantly, my projection was completely off base. The game got a little goofy due to the score, but Raymond wasn’t on the field any more often than he was through the first seven weeks and ranked sixth among Detroit pass catchers in snaps.

Wrong wrong wrong, but I got bailed out by a seven-yard touchdown and a 90-yard punt return happening within seven minutes of one another. So, thank you. Thank you, fantasy gods. I see you. I hate to think about the price I will have to pay for this gracious gift, but that’s a curse for me to bear, not you.

You shouldn’t be playing Raymond this week. Running hot like last week is nice, but doubling down is dangerous. I have Allen Robinson II, Tim Patrick, and Raymond all ranked in the WR45-55 range, understanding that one of them has a chance to outperform in a significant way but being realistic in acknowledging that it’s little more than a dart throw after learning next to nothing in Week 8 due to the one-sided nature of that game.

Keenan Allen, WR | CHI (at ARI)

Underwhelming. I really don’t have any other words for what we’ve seen from the veteran receiver up to this point. He’s averaging over an end-zone target per game, and yet he has just one top-50 performance under his belt as a member of the Bears.

This is a plus matchup (23rd in yards per slot pass against and 29th in slot TD%), but what proof do we have that the Caleb Williams/Allen connection is worth trusting?

Production relative to expectation, 2024:

• Cole Kmet: +46.1%
• DJ Moore: -6.5%
• Rome Odunze: -16%
• Allen: -22.1%

Allen is a roster-worthy player as a cheap bet on Williams’ development, but we need proof of a plan before inserting him into Flex conversations.

Keon Coleman, WR | BUF (vs. MIA)

This offseason was spent hyping up this rookie receiver class, and Coleman is trending in an ultra-impressive direction with consecutive top-20 finishes, positioning himself to be the next great first-year WR to peak at the perfect time for fantasy managers.

Rookies’ production vs. expectation:

• Brian Thomas Jr.: +43.7%
• Coleman: +29.6%
• Ladd McConkey: +18.6%
• Marvin Harrison Jr.: +14.6%
• Malik Nabers: -6.9%

It’s easy to look at two strong performances in a row from the rookie and tie it to the addition of Amari Cooper, but “easy” and “accurate” aren’t always the same thing.

Coleman’s splits, Weeks 7-8:

• Cooper on the field: 2.3 fantasy points per target, 17.4% target share, and 21.9% slot
• Cooper off the field: 2.5 fantasy points per target, 25% target share, and 8.1% slot

As good as Coleman has been, his role still comes with volatility, volatility that his teammate doesn’t have — and that is why Coleman remains as my third option in Buffalo.

Khalil Shakir, WR | BUF (vs. MIA)

Maybe it’s because we share initials. Maybe it’s because we share Zodiac signs. Maybe it’s because we both spent our early 20s in upstate New York. Or, hear me out — maybe it’s because this man is truly amazing.

Khalil Shakir has caught 91.03% of his targets over his past 18 regular season games. For reference:

Avengers, Rotten Tomatoes: 91.00%
Steph Curry career FT%: 91.00%
Justin Tucker career FG%: 89.67%
UConn NCAAB Win% during repeat: 86.07%@BuffaloBills #BillsMafia

— Kyle Soppe (@KyleSoppePFN) October 28, 2024

The Bills offer plenty of flash and have an MVP candidate under center, all of which is taking away from one of the most amazing runs in our game.

Once. One time since the beginning of last season, in regular-season action, have multiple targets to Khalil Shakir hit the ground within a game. His connection with Josh Allen is as rock solid as any in the NFL.

Yes, I understand that Shakir’s 3.6-yard aDOT lends itself to efficiency, but there’s no one in his zip code when it comes to his catch rate since the beginning of last season, and that has made him a PPR lineup staple.

With Buffalo’s implied point total hanging around 28 points for this game, we are introducing some scoring equity to a profile that comes preloaded with an elite floor.

The Dolphins are a below-average defense when it comes to defending the slot (worse than the league average in passer rating, completion percentage, yards per attempt, and yards per completion).

However high you are on Shakir, it’s not high enough. He’s a PPR WR2 for me in this spot, putting him alongside names like Marvin Harrison Jr., Jaylen Waddle, and DeVonta Smith.

Ladd McConkey, WR | LAC (at CLE)

McConkey played through a hip injury last week to author the best game of his young career (6-111-2) against the Saints, and he has an NFL feel about him as he operates out of the slot.

This offense as a whole may be boring, but Justin Herbert is an above-average QB and one that is capable of elevating talent; so, yeah, I’m buying what this rookie is selling. He has earned at least six targets in six of seven games this season and gets the pleasure of facing a defense that ranks 31st in yards allowed after the catch per reception when opponents target the slot.

A repeat of Week 8’s explosion is unlikely, but another top-30 finish is more than reasonable, and that’s where I have him ranked: as a strong Flex option in PPR formats.

Malik Nabers, WR | NYG (vs. WAS)

There is a little bit of an empty-calorie feel to Nabers’ bananas volume, but the combination of talent and sheer volume is impossible to ignore.

Most targets through six career games since 2000:

• Nabers: 73
• Puka Nacua: 70
• Anquan Boldin: 60
• Chris Olave: 56

Is it true that, since returning from a multi-week concussion absence, he is barely averaging a PPR point per target? Yes (22.2 points on 21 targets), but ebb and flow are to be expected, especially in less-than-ideal spots.

The rookie has already scored 18.7 points in a game against this leaky secondary, one that has allowed seven receivers to reach double figures. The matchup and role create a stable foundation, and Nabers’ ability brings a top-10 week into the conversation every time he laces up his cleats.

Marvin Harrison Jr., WR | ARI (vs. CHI)

His sliding touchdown catch was a work of art and paid the fantasy bills, but be careful — his 19.4% on-field target share was his lowest since his NFL debut. That said, he was in the slot for a season-high 32.1% of his routes, an encouraging sign of this team’s willingness to move him around and elevate his projectable efficiency.

In this era of instant gratification, we are predisposed to expecting greatness immediately and accepting nothing else. Is it possible that Harrison is worthy of all the hype we gave him this summer and is just slow to realize it?

Through eight weeks, Harrison has produced either 90% over or 45% under expectations five times. His production has been all over the place, and that can happen for a 22-year-old kid tasked with beating adults consistently in a spotty offensive setting.

The Bears are allowing the third-lowest passer rating when receivers are the target, bringing these floor weeks into play. I’m not projecting a dud, but it’s time to adjust your expectations to a WR2 as opposed to the WR1 you hoped you were getting this summer.

I have Harrison ranked on the fringes of the top 20, alongside stable names like Khalil Shakir and similar high-pedigree options that lack consistency around them like Garrett Wilson and DJ Moore.

Michael Pittman Jr., WR | IND (at MIN)

Pittman was targeted deep down the field on Anthony Richardson’s first pass last week, and I was mentally preparing to be sucked back in with the thought being that they are adjusting Pittman’s role to put him in a position to at least see targets with their YOLO second-year QB.

After 36 hours of trying to talk myself into that — mental hurdles that included falling asleep to the recording of the radio call of that missed target (some people have white noise, I wish cast fantasy production; sue me) — I saw the news break that Joe Flacco was named the Week 9 starter.

Pittman with Anthony Richardson, 2024:

• 27.3% under fantasy expectations
• 13.8 aDOT
• 50% catch rate

Pittman with Joe Flacco, 2024:

• 7.8% over fantasy expectation
• 8.9 aDOT
• 63.2% catch rate

I don’t think there’s any question that this is a positive move for the receiver we presumed was atop this depth chart two months ago, and that makes him a Flex-worthy player.

I worry that he has been surpassed by Josh Downs as the primary target in this offense and we are looking at a low pass rate over expectation projection with a healthy Jonathan Taylor, but I’m cautiously optimistic and have Pittman ranked ahead of names like Tank Dell and DeAndre Hopkins for Week 9.

Michael Wilson, WR | ARI vs. CHI)

I get excited about this kid once a month. The tools are in place, and I like his Robin role to Marvin Harrison Jr.’s Batman, but I think the days of this offense providing us with two usable receivers is probably more of a 2025 thing.

Wilson’s size has allowed him to score three times this season, but he’s totaled just 57 receiving yards across those three games, meaning we aren’t even being rewarded in a big way when he does find paydirt.

Wilson has produced at least 26% over target expectations in three of his past four games and has seen three end-zone targets over the past three weeks. However, I can’t rank him as a top-40 receiver until we see his number called more regularly. His aDOT has been stuck in reverse lately, and that’s simply not the way to attack Chicago (top five against short passes in yards per pass, passer rating, and touchdown rate).

I’m telling you now — I’ll be leading the Wilson hype train this summer. Tickets are available at @KyleSoppePFN with early-bird pricing now available.

Mike Evans, WR | TB (at KC)

The Buccaneers announced last week that Evans (hamstring) would miss four weeks. They went out of their way to say “weeks” and not “games,” thus leading to the expectation that he is back after the Week 11 bye.

That’s not ideal, but at least you’re not left wondering if he’ll suit up in the short term. The cautious approach also allows him to be at full strength for a favorable schedule in Weeks 12-14 (Giants, Panthers, and Raiders) as you look to improve your playoff seed.

Evans may not help you this week or next — if you can tread water, however, he might play a big role in your run to glory.

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, WR | TEN (vs. NE)

You have to have a hyphenated name to score in three consecutive games. I don’t make the rules, I just follow them. It’s Westbrook-Ikhine and Amon-Ra St. Brown. That’s your entire list of receivers who have scored in each of their past three games.

On the bright side, he played the majority of snaps for the first time this season (91.5%). On the less bright side, he still plays for the Titans.

Tennessee’s pass ranks, 2024:

• 24th in passing touchdown rate
• 29th in yards per pass attempt
• 32nd in passer rating
• 32nd in interception rate

This is the same offense that has supported two top-40 Calvin Ridley weeks over two months. You missed out on Westbrook-Ikhine’s random touchdown barrage, and that’s OK — the bigger mistake is chasing points that you are unlikely to cash in on in the future.

Puka Nacua, WR | LAR (at SEA)

It was a wild 12 hours ahead of kickoff last week, as Nacua’s status improved rapidly, and he was able to help the Rams potentially save their season with a 30-20 win over the Vikings.

The questions came flooding in once the whispers of his activity came out, a good reminder to stay fluid with your lineup at all times and to always reach out when drastic things like that happen.

Nacua went on to lead this team in catches (seven), targets (nine), and receiving yards (106), capitalizing on a game plan that was pretty clearly designed to make him comfortable (targeted on three of Matthew Stafford’s first throws). His two carries didn’t do much damage (five yards), but that’s not something the team schemes up if not fully confident in his health.

His stat line might not reflect limited reps. But after being on the field for 86.8% of offensive snaps as a rookie, his time spent on the field was certainly watched with a careful eye on Thursday:

Week 8 WR snap rates:

• Demarcus Robinson: 83.3%
• Cooper Kupp: 56.1%
• Puka Nacua: 53%
• Tyler Johnson: 40.9%
• Tutu Atwell: 13.6%

What the team is unable to control, however, is this man’s ability to open up windows for Stafford to throw him the ball. Nacua was targeted on 40.9% of his routes, an absurd rate that ranked as the second-best showing of his career and 12.9 percentage points ahead of his historic rookie season as a whole.

We could waste time in arguing which receiver is the alpha in this offense (I like the slot against Seattle and Kupp was there nearly three times as often as Nacua last week). But no matter your stance there, if you have one of them, you’re plugging him in with the utmost confidence in a game that could easily be a shootout.

Quentin Johnston, WR | LAC (at CLE)

Note: Johnston was limited on Wednesday before logging a full practice on Thursday — he appears ready to return to the field. 

The ankle injury continues to nag at Johnston, resulting in another DNP last week. He wasn’t ruled out until Sunday, but that doesn’t matter to me — we are talking about a fringe receiver on a low-octane offense. Not only do I need him practicing in full, I need glowing reports out of Los Angeles to believe this second-year receiver is even rosterable let alone in the mix for a starting spot in my lineup.

We remember the few splash plays from September because we were worried about having to eat our words in burying him after a dreadful rookie season. But those are about his only highlights to date. In his five games played, he has one top-35 finish this season and has seen 55.5% of his production come on touchdown receptions.

I don’t love the reliance on scoring for anyone, but I can overlook it in an explosive offense. There are a lot of adjectives to describe this Bolts offense, but let’s stick with “not explosive” as a descriptor to keep me employed and you reading this novel to your children as a bedtime story.

What? You’re saying that’s not how you use these 25,000+ words each week? I’m not a parent, but that feels inefficient. You are assured they will be bored to sleep by the time you reach this portion of the proceedings (trust me, my wife is a full-grown woman and was snoring by the time I got to my well-thought-out stance on Demarcus Robinson) and doing your Week 9 homework at the same time. Sounds like A+ parenting to me!

Anyway, this is the rare chance to make fantasy simple — it’s not an absolutely perfect spot for Johnston (health or matchup), so there is no reason to whisper his name again this week. Maybe he’s worth a stash with the Bengals and Ravens coming up in Weeks 11-12 (Marvin Harrison Jr. Malik Nabers, Mike Evans, Drake London, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Brian Thomas Jr., and Chris Olave all have byes over that stretch), but that’s as far as I’m willing to go.

Rome Odunze, WR | CHI (at ARI)

Playing Odunze is a rookie parlay that I simply can’t wrap my head around. He was the seventh-best receiver in fantasy in Week 3, showing us what is possible for years to come in this Chicago offense, but the fact that he hasn’t once been a top-45 receiver since then tells you all you need to know about the decision-making process for Week 9.

This is exactly the type of receiver I keep rostered but never play. That may feel like a waste of a roster spot and it could be, but I’m comfortable burning a bench spot with the hope that these two can find a rhythm with 2-3 months of NFL reps.

Romeo Doubs, WR | GB (vs. DET)

I don’t want to over-simplify things, but I generally look to play Doubs when I think he has a better-than-average chance of scoring, and that’s it. For his career, 10.2% of his receptions have finished in the end zone, a nice skill set to have in this top-10 offense. However, I’m not ready to trust it regularly until he shows a greater ability to earn targets consistently.

I love what I saw last week from him, and that’s a start. Jordan Love trusted him enough to fire a 25-yard pass his way in the two-minute drill, trusting him in a single-coverage spot. Doubs also set up a Josh Jacobs touchdown by forcing a 21-yard pass interference penalty, another good sign when it comes to his connection with his QB.

My concern here is two-fold: 1) the risk that comes with Love being banged up the week before the bye and 2) Detroit being the top defense in terms of end-zone completion percentage (three completions on 19 attempts).

Starting a Packer receiver any week in which Love is calling the shots isn’t a bad option, though I do have players like Josh Downs and Keon Coleman ranked higher this week for those being asked to make a tight Flex decision.

Stefon Diggs, WR | HOU (at NYJ)

Diggs pulled up lame last week without much contact, and our fears were confirmed on Tuesday afternoon — torn ACL, out for the season.

Diggs has been far more productive this season than I had projected, carving out a nice niche in this offense, but he won’t play any role in your fantasy team’s ability to make a run to glory.

Xavier Hutchinson and John Metchie III will see an uptick in snaps, but unless the “R” in your PPR league stands for “routes,” I wouldn’t try to replace one Texan with another.

Elijah Moore and Gabe Davis are receivers who are widely available and are worth a look.

Tank Dell, WR | HOU (at NYJ)

Dell scored his second touchdown of the season last week, though he was fortunate to have the opportunity. If Anthony Richardson doesn’t throw an impossible-to-comprehend interception inside of his own 20-yard line in the final minute of the first half, we are potentially looking at a 3-28-0 stinker from Dell and asking a lot of questions.

With Nico Collins still on IR (eligible to come off next week) and Stefon Diggs done for the season, I could see why your gut reaction would be to push Dell into the WR2 tier with the thought being that his target volume is set to increase in a meaningful way.

That might be true, but are we sure that’s what we want from a 5’10”, 165-pound receiver?

Dell is currently WR58 on a PPR PPG basis. Care to guess how many of the 57 receivers ranked ahead of him stand no taller than 5’10”?

There are only six, and two of them are now on the same team (Zay Flowers and Diontae Johnson). This body type rarely wins consistently across the NFL, and while the Jets have the second-highest opponent average depth of target when throwing to receivers, the amount of traffic that Dell is likely to see makes those feel more like prayer yards than anything.

My confidence in Dell will be higher once Collins returns and the schedule lightens. In this spot, I’d rather ride the wave of Keon Coleman or take more “sure” things like Ladd McConkey or Wan’Dale Robinson.

Tee Higgins, WR | CIN (vs. LV)

A quad injury at Friday’s practice resulted in Higgins being a late add to the injury report and ultimately resulted in him sitting out against the Eagles. Week 8 was his third missed game of the season and eighth over the past two years, introducing more health risks than the star receiver had through his first three NFL seasons (four total missed games). As for what we saw before last week’s DNP:

Chase:

• 37 targets (two in the end zone)
• 29 catches (six on third downs)
• Two drops

Higgins:

• 45 targets (three in the end zone)
• 29 catches (nine on third downs)
• Zero drops

Why am I not hesitating to go back to Higgins this week in the least? In Weeks 1-8, Higgins was targeted on 37.3% of his routes when Joe Burrow wasn’t pressured, a rate that far exceeded Chase’s 22.3% rate. When you fold in blitz rate to pressure rate, the Raiders, despite having the monster that is Maxx Crosby, are as poor a defense as there is in the league.

I like the Bengals in this game. In their past four wins, Higgins has averaged 8.3 targets and 16.8 PPR points per game. I like his chances of getting there in this spot, and that’s why he has the potential to flirt with WR1 status as he trends toward kickoff.

Terry McLaurin, WR | WAS (at NYG)

Terry McLaurin’s third 100-yard game of the season resulted in his sixth straight top-30 finish, making him the cream of the crop when it comes to reliable options in the WR2-3 range.

We haven’t seen the eye-popping numbers that we envisioned once he was finally playing alongside an NFL-level quarterback, but McLaurin is a lineup lock week in and week out, without much question as long as Jayden Daniels is under center.

The Giants have been reasonably stingy against receivers this season, but that’s more the result of them being more inept at other spots on the field. Four of the five highest WR games against New York have come from the alpha target earner in the offense (it would be 4 of 4 if not for Calvin Austin’s punt return touchdown last week vaulting him into this conversation).

There’s no denying that is what McLaurin is in Washington (145 more receiving yards than the next two most productive Commanders receivers combined).

Tyler Lockett, WR | SEA (vs. LAR)

Note: An oblique injury limited Lockett on Wednesday, but he was a full-go on Thursday and appears set to fill his normal role. 

Forget actual production, Lockett hasn’t had a role that saw him earn more than 10 projected points in a game this season. Even with DK Metcalf ailing, the veteran receiver didn’t earn five targets a single time in the month of October and seems to have little gas left in the tank in an offense that is likely to rebrand itself around Kenneth Walker III and Jaxon Smith-Njigba down the stretch.

Lockett’s name carries nostalgia with it, I get it. I promise you that I like him as much as you do, but this profile doesn’t need to be on fantasy rosters (two finishes this season better than WR40), especially against a defense that held him to 61 yards on 11 targets across two games last season.

Tyreek Hill, WR | MIA (at BUF)

Tyreek Hill didn’t exactly rediscover his 2,000-yard-pace dreams with Tua Tagovailoa back, but it was good to see him get loose for his first 25-yard catch since Week 1. Hill was targeted on the second and third passes of Week 8, picking up 21 yards in the process.

The vintage Hill performances feel inevitable as long as QB1 is on the field, which means you’re starting him weekly. I worry some that the majority of his targets this season (56.9%) have come on the perimeter, as that is the teeth of the Bills’ defense, but that’s not enough concern to slip him any further than WR9 in my weekly rankings.

Wan’Dale Robinson, WR | NYG (vs. WAS)

If there is ever a time to play Wan’Dale Robinson, this might be it. The Commanders are likely to script the Giants out of any balance, thus making dump-off passes a version of the run game, which feeds right into Robinson’s profile.

How many air yards do you think Robinson has accumulated on his 14 targets over the past two weeks?

Fewer.

Those 14 looks have come with just 14.9 air yards, making Robinson’s targets little more than long handoffs. That’s not the most appealing skill set in the world, which is why he’s started in fewer leagues each week.

Robinson’s catches are unlikely to show up on NFL RedZone or post-game highlight packages, but with the Commanders allowing the third-most yards per short pass to receivers this season (6.8), I’m happy to take a double-digit PPR day (at least five catches in five straight games and three games north of 10 targets this season) and be on my way.

Robinson is my WR27 this week, ranked over the emerging Keon Coleman and flashier names like Keenan Allen and DeAndre Hopkins.

Xavier Legette, WR | CAR (vs. NO)

With Diontae Johnson out of the picture, Xavier Legette will have the chance to develop in an expedited manner, and that’s gold for his dynasty managers. In terms of Week 9 or the remainder of 2024, I’m having a hard time getting there.

Yes, Legette has scored in three of five games, but he’s averaging just 1.15 yards per route this year, a level of inefficiency that I find more predictive than the recent scoring binge. Regardless of who is under center, do we think Carolina will frequently be in the red zone?

I don’t, and if the touchdowns dry up, what does Legette bring to the table? His current 17-game pace for this season is 47 catches for 449 yards, which means he’s essentially pacing — for an entire season — for a stat line similar to what Darnell Mooney has already put on the board; and I don’t feel good about Mooney on a weekly basis.

There might be something to Legette long-term, but we’re going to have to wait to plug him into lineups and find out.

Xavier Worthy, WR | KC (vs. TB)

Your optimism about Xavier Worthy should be directly tied to what you think DeAndre Hopkins has to offer — and that terrifies me. The rookie has begun to see his role take shape of late, and if not for the acquisition of the veteran playmaker, would have me moving heaven and earth to acquire him.

Worthy has five red-zone touches over his previous three games and has been targeted on over 25% of his routes in consecutive weeks, not bad for a player who hadn’t crossed 18.2% beforehand. Mahomes continues to operate a pretty conservative offensive attack, but he’s beginning to let his metaphorical hair down recently when looking the way of the fastest sprinter in the NFL.

• Weeks 1-4: 26.7% of Worthy’s targets were deep downfield
• Weeks 5-8: 36.4% of Worthy’s targets were deep downfield

So, what’s it going to be? Was Hopkins brought in for his route-running savvy and as a pseudo-Rashee Rice replacement, or was he brought in to further stretch the field and give space for this running game/Travis Kelce to help matriculate the ball down the field?

I lean toward the latter, which has me out on Worthy. However, I will admit that I’m not operating with the utmost confidence in that evaluation because trying to get inside the head of Andy Reid is impossible.

I’m not starting Worthy until I have a better feel for this situation. I will tell you (as long as you pinky promise to not tell my league mates) that I’m going to be watching Hopkins’ usage like a hawk. Not his production, his usage. If he’s lining up in the slot and running six-yard crossing routes on 3rd-and-5, I’m sending an offer to the Worthy owner as fast as possible.

Zay Flowers, WR | BAL (vs. DEN)

Over his past six games, Zay Flowers (recently playing through an ankle issue) has three with over 110 receiving yards, yet three others with no more than 20. On the plus side, three of his five end-zone targets this season came on Sunday in Cleveland.

Nevertheless, adding Diontae Johnson to the mix makes this an increasingly difficult profile to evaluate. Flowers’ fantasy stock, to no surprise, has been directly tied to target share. And regardless of what you think Johnson brings to this offense, you have to dial back Flowers’ role in some capacity.

• 20.5 PPG when targeted on over 25% of his routes this season
• 5.6 PPG when not targeted on over 25% of his routes this season

I’ll grant you that it is entirely possible that the attention that a proven talent like Johnson demands could result in enough of an uptick in the quality of targets to offset the decline in quantity. However, we’ll have to wait and see on that.

In Week 9, Flowers remains a WR2 after this deal, as I find it unlikely that his newest teammate is on the field for the majority of snaps.

Week 9 Fantasy Football Tight Ends

Brock Bowers, TE | LV (at CIN)

The star rookie has been either a top-five producer at the position or outside of the top 15 in every game this season. That can be a frustrating profile — but not at the tight end position. Having access to an elite upside is what drives decision-making because so few players have it.

Bowers’ target share elevates in one-score games (27.3%), and that’s a sign that this team is very willing to label him as the alpha in this offense. This offense may not put him in a position to be the most consistent producer, but that doesn’t mean you second-guess his status in your starting lineup. Not this week. Not this year. Not for the rest of the 2020s.

Cade Otton, TE | TB (at KC)

The star of National Tight Ends Day (officially the final Sunday of October for those keeping track at home) scored twice, doubling his scoring output from his previous 11 regular season games in the process.

Otton has caught 17 of 20 targets over the past two weeks, establishing himself as the lone soldier still standing for Baker Mayfield in this passing game. That role isn’t going to change this week, and that elevates Otton to a top-12 play, even when facing the fifth-best defense in terms of both scoring and yards per play allowed.

My answer would be “Yes.” Yes, I would sell Otton for a viable Flex piece if given the opportunity as I don’t think his value the rest of the way is drastically ahead of replacement level.

Cole Kmet, TE | CHI (at ARI)

Does a single player’s profile fit the tight end position more than Kmet’s?

• Week 3 at Indianapolis Colts: 25.7 PPR points (26.8% target rate)
• Week 4 vs. Los Angeles Rams: 6.4 PPR points (15% target rate)
• Week 5 vs. Carolina Panthers: 8.7 PPR points (14.3% target rate)
• Week 6 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars: 24.0 PPR points (17.9% target rate)
• Week 8 at Washington Commanders: 4.4 PPR points (5.6% target rate)

Kmet has been consistently productive when given the opportunity, but that role is spotty at best. He has just one end-zone target this season while his slot rate is down from last season and his red-zone usage is as low as it’s been since his rookie campaign.

Kmet draws a bottom-10 defense in both scoring and yardage, making him a reasonable plug-and-play option this week if you’re in need, but this isn’t the type of player I’m labeling as a stable option for the remainder of the season.

Dallas Goedert, TE | PHI (vs. JAX)

The veteran tight end suffered a hamstring injury in Week 6 and has now missed consecutive games. He was awfully ordinary through two weeks (seven catches on nine targets for 69 yards) before taking full advantage of receiver injuries around him in Weeks 3-4 (17 catches on 19 targets for 232 yards).

As long as both A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith are active, I’ll be projecting Goedert, when healthy, much closer to the version of him we saw to open the season than the featured numbers he put up at the end of September.

The Jaguars have been reasonably stout against opposing running backs this season, so maybe that creates a path to usage. But even if you want to pencil him in for those short, chain-moving looks, his aDOT is 23.6% higher than it was a season ago.

We’ve seen hamstring injuries linger more this year than seemingly ever before — this is a situation you’re going to need to watch weekly.

Dalton Kincaid, TE | BUF (vs. MIA)

Kincaid has just one finish better than TE10 this season and has yet to clear 52 receiving yards in a game — he’s been viable, he just hasn’t taken that Year 2 step that we were hoping for.

Buffalo’s TE1 is a good teaching point about priors. We all enter our fantasy drafts with player takes and a cheat sheet. We have thoughts on 200+ players that we work hard to form, and that’s 100% the right way to go about things.

But leaving those takes in the preseason is a skill that takes some refining. If I laid out the state of the tight end position league-wide and told you that I’d give you 6+ targets every week (Kincaid has done it in five straight games) for the fifth-highest-scoring team in the league, you’d take it and not think twice, right?

But because of our previous thoughts, we are labeling Kincaid as a disappointment. His ADP means nothing now — at the end of the day, you’re getting passable numbers from the TE slot on your roster and that’s a luxury that not all teams have.

I’ve come off of my “Kincaid can be a top-three producer at the position” take, but that doesn’t mean I’m looking for other options; Kincaid is a weekly starter and you don’t need to roster a backup.

Dalton Schultz, TE | HOU (at NYJ)

All of Schultz’s production came in the first half, and that is exactly what makes him nothing more than a low-end streamer: he can disappear for extended periods. His target rate sits at 17.4% this season when Nico Collins isn’t on the field, up from 12.7% with the alpha receiver, a role that might only last one more week with the WR1 eligible to come off of IR in Week 10 (vs. Detroit Lions).

There are better options on your wire than Schultz this week, and while I’ll be evaluating his usage as this offense evolves, I’m happy to do some from a distance.

David Njoku, TE | CLE (vs. LAC)

Njoku has been a physical mismatch ever since he entered the NFL, and Jameis Winston is as good at taking advantage of talent as there is. We saw that on the 23-yard touchdown last week in single coverage where he just outmuscled the defender, and I suspect we see more of it moving forward given Winston’s propensity to trust his top playmakers.

He’s scored in consecutive weeks and can be used as a weekly option across all formats with confidence as the featured pass catcher in the fourth most pass-oriented offense when inside the red zone. It should be no surprise that Njoku posted his highest aDOT since Week 12, 2022, giving him an upside that only a handful of tight ends in today’s game have.

Evan Engram, TE | JAX (at PHI)

How good has Engram been since returning? I’m glad you asked.

In his last three games, he’s averaging 13.4 PPR points per game with a 5.5-yard aDOT and a 25% on-field target share. During his nearly record-breaking 2023 campaign, he averaged 13.6 PPR points per game with a 5.0-yard aDOT and a 23.4% on-field target share.

He’s been an elite option, and Trevor Lawrence’s confidence in his tight end was never more clear than late last week, as he lobbed a ball up in triple coverage to Engram with under two minutes left in a one-score game.

Touchdown.

The volume is going to be as good as any player at the position, though I do worry about efficiency moving forward given the number of injuries in the passing game around him. The Eagles own the fourth-lowest opponent passer rating this season when targeting tight ends, and that makes this a difficult matchup, though the sheer number of projectable opportunities is too much to ignore.

If you’re fading Engram, it’s in DFS and not in any sort of season-long format.

Hunter Henry, TE | NE (at TEN)

Henry is averaging 13.3 PPR points over his past three games, earning 20 looks across those games and proving that he is capable of leading this otherwise unproven roster of pass catchers. How much does his value hinge on the signal caller?

Those charts look pretty similar, right? The playbook isn’t any different, but the reads are. Under Maye, Henry has produced 29.9% over fantasy expectations while averaging 2.1 yards per route run, a drastic improvement from his marks under Brissett (18.2% below expectation and 1.5 yards per route).

The Titans have allowed the fifth-highest short-touchdown pass rate this season, and that puts Henry on the low-end TE1 radar, but he’ll flirt with my top 10 should the rookie be back under center.

Isaiah Likely, TE | BAL (vs. DEN)

Remember that 12-target season debut? That was the last time Likely saw five targets in a game. While the snap count is fine (69.4% last week), Todd Monken isn’t running this athlete downfield enough to give him access to a viable fantasy profile.

He saw four targets against the Browns on Sunday totaling one air yard. I still think there’s talent here that can matter, so I’m tracking the situation, but he doesn’t need to be rostered in standard-sized leagues until Baltimore leans into him as essentially their WR2 and carves out consistent work for him.

Jake Ferguson, TE | DAL (at ATL)

Ferguson had zero air yards in Week 8 despite eight targets and has been held under 30 air yards in four straight. He’s an asset in PPR leagues, but the per-catch ceiling is low (zero touchdowns this season and nine catches for 34 yards over his past two games).

I’ll chase the usage (7+ targets in four of his past five) in the highest total game of the week. I hyped up Ferguson plenty this offseason, and it’s clear that I was over my skis, but I do think there is a reasonable floor that can be useful in PPR formats.

Jonnu Smith, TE| MIA (at BUF)

That’s now three straight games with four catches and six targets for Smith, an interesting profile given the trajectory of this Miami offense with Tua Tagovailoa under center.

Smith was on the field for a season-high 67.2% of offensive snaps last — that’s what has my attention. The Dolphins bring a third receiver on the field for just 35% of snaps (second lowest, Ravens), thus indicating, to me, that they officially view the big tight end as their third pass catcher.

Does that lock in viable usage? It doesn’t. We’ve seen this team be as concentrated as any in the league when their duo of star receivers is healthy. However, I’m willing to stream and find out as a cheap way to bet on Tagovailoa.

Kyle Pitts, TE | ATL vs. DAL)

Now this — this is the type of list we thought we’d see more of:

• Justin Jefferson
• Nico Collins
• A.J. Brown
• Pitts

Those are the players in the league that have 65 receiving yards in each of their past four games. Pitts got there with a pair of long touchdowns on Sunday, including a 36-yarder where he worked through a holding penalty, displaying some physical gifts that we fell in love with coming out of school.

The other score was essentially the personification of Pitts’ career up to this point but with a positive spin — barely.

I was set up at about the 1.5 yard line during Kyle Pitts' controversial second touchdown.

So here's my view of it. I tried to focus into when I believe the ball started to come out. The more I watch this, the more I think the refs got the call of TD wrong. @FOX13News pic.twitter.com/2kbBhM1Ask

— Sean Barie FOX 13 (@SeanBarieTV) October 27, 2024

This was one of a few calls on Sunday where a 50/50 call stood simply because of what was called on the field — Pitts’ managers aren’t under any obligation to apologize, but we were close to a different narrative.

His on-field target share and slot usage are both trending toward career lows, so be careful. I’m cautiously optimistic, especially against a Cowboys defense that has allowed a league-high 149.0 passer rating when targeting the position. However, I don’t think we’ve seen Pitts be unlocked or anything like that — he’s still a volatile option.

Mark Andrews, TE | BAL (vs. DEN)

I don’t care that Andrews scored for the fourth time in three weeks.

OK, so that’s a lie. I loved it. But from a sustainability standpoint, a season-high 72.6% snap share is what is sucking me back into ranking the veteran as a fantasy starter. After a brutal September (11.1% target rate), Andrews caught 16-of-18 October targets with a 20.7% target rate.

The snaps and value of those snaps are trending in the right direction, giving me enough confidence to rank Andrews as high as I have over the past month (TE13). If he can produce against a defense that has allowed the third-lowest opponent passer rating on tight end targets through eight weeks, he’ll be inside of my top 10 for Week 9’s game against the Bengals.

Mike Gesicki, TE | CIN (vs. LV)

With Tee Higgins sidelined, Gesicki’s role reappeared. The tight end had twice as many targets on Sunday (eight) as he had in the month prior, though he was still only on the field for 53.4% of Cincinnati’s offensive snaps.

On the plus side, fantasy managers and the Bengals want the same thing out of Geicki — to catch passes. I’m a sports writer with the physical tools to — well — cover sports, and I spent as much time in October pass-blocking as Gesicki. With Higgins listed as doubtful for Sunday, I’m willing to roll the dice with a role like that in a pass-centric offense that faces the seventh-worst red-zone defense (62.1% TD rate) and the fourth-highest touchdown rate on short passes.

Noah Fant, TE | SEA (vs. LAR)

How many tight ends do you think have at least three catches from the QB their team entered this season labeled as the starter in each of the past four weeks?

Six.

There are only six of them, and the other five are rostered in a far higher percentage of leagues (George Kittle, Kyle Pitts, Trey McBride, Brock Bowers, and Mark Andrews). Fant, of course, is the sixth, and with a role that sees him running a route on 93.5% of his snaps, there’s a reasonable floor to target here.

The development of Kenneth Walker III as a pass catcher scares me, and a healthy DK Metcalf would naturally limit the target opportunities. That said, streaming the tight end position is a game of extreme turnover, and I’m OK with going this route if your team is otherwise loaded.

The Rams allow the seventh-most yards per play this season (5.8), giving Seattle the opportunity to put their tight end in position to box out a linebacker and score.

Sam LaPorta, TE | DET (at GB)

Week 8 was LaPorta’s fourth finish as a viable fantasy starter, though it didn’t come without a sweat. Brock Wright found the end zone before the starter, and then LaPorta had a score taken off the board after his touchdown was reversed.

It was all shaping up for another big Detroit, small LaPorta game when the Lions were again in tight positioning and pitched it to touchdown-savant David Montgomery. The halfback, however, flipped the ball to the throwing position and delivered an on-target pass to LaPorta, bailing out fantasy managers across this great nation.

You’re playing him in season-long options because you’re not going to have a better option (from a roster construction standpoint, you shouldn’t), but I’m steering clear in DFS. The Packers blitz at the fourth-lowest rate this season (18.5% of opponent dropbacks), and that’s bad news for LaPorta, even with Jameson Williams serving the second game of his PED suspension:

Target rates when Goff is not blitzed, 2024:

• David Montgomery: 27.9%
• Amon-Ra St. Brown: 25.5%
• Jahmyr Gibbs: 22.2%
• Tim Patrick: 16.9%
• Kalif Raymond: 15.3%
• LaPorta: 11.2%

Taysom Hill, TE | NO (at LAC)

After missing nearly a month, Taysom Hill returned to action, and while the fantasy production wasn’t overwhelming, it was a good reminder of what makes him a unique option in our game.

Hill was on the field for 39.7% of New Orleans’ snaps, a role that would relegate most tight ends to useless. Yet, he had nine opportunities (four targets, four carries, and one pass), a profile I’d bet on going into any week if I had the knowledge beforehand.

With receivers falling like flies and the Saints cycling through quarterbacks, Hill is going to grade out as a viable play for me in the short term, at the very least. I currently have him ranked as a streamer, but that’s with the thought that Derek Carr returns to action.

If that news changes, Hill’s versatility becomes more enticing, and he’d move into my top 12 at the position against a defense that allows a league-high 4.4 red-zone trips per game.

T.J. Hockenson, TE | MIN (vs. IND)

We’ve been teased with Hockenson’s (knee) return in consecutive weeks. If we finally get it on Sunday night, he should be locked into your lineup given recent tight ends’ performances against the Colts …

• Week 4, Pat Freiermuth: Five catches for 57 yards and a TD
• Week 5, Brenton Strange: Caught all four targets and a TD
• Week 7, Jonnu Smith: Caught all seven targets for 96 yards and a TD

I don’t think defensive numbers against tight ends are overly sticky, but those are interesting notes as we take a look at a Vikings offense that lacks a secondary pass catcher next to Justin Jefferson. It didn’t take Hockenson any time to get rolling last season (he was a top-six tight end in each of Minnesota’s three games, catching 23 passes across those contests).

While it stands to reason that his snaps could be capped in this spot, that didn’t stop the Rams from weighing down Puka Nacua in his return last week. Hockenson is a top-10 tight end for me right now — and that’s conservative with his status still unofficial.

Travis Kelce, TE | KC (vs. TB)

Is the TE1 version of Kelce back? He caught 23 passes in three October games and finally found paydirt (on his first end-zone target of the season), his first regular-season score in over 11 months.

The future Hall of Famer has three top-10 finishes on his résumé and has caught 17 of 19 targets on the scoring side of the field this season. The Chiefs aren’t and have no reason to use Kelce like the prime version of himself, but as long as No. 15 is under center and he’s operating as the primary underneath option, he’s a top-five tight end.

The Buccaneers have allowed the third-highest opponent passer rating on tight end targets through eight weeks, giving Mahomes every excuse to load up on comfort targets.

Trey McBride, TE | ARI (vs. CHI)

That’s now 15 straight games with at least six targets, a role that is worth its weight in gold these days at the TE position. Okay, so maybe not “gold,” but it could well prove to be worth your league pot as the 24-year-old not only boasts elite usage but gets the Panthers and Rams during the fantasy Super Bowl window (Weeks 16-17).

Trey McBride has been targeted on over a quarter of his routes in five of seven games and racked up over 100 air yards on Sunday for the first time this season. He’s producing at a more than viable level right now and has plenty of room to improve. He has just one end-zone target this season and hasn’t seen a red-zone look in the majority of his games.

Tucker Kraft, TE | GB (vs. DET)

Kraft has been a TE1 in four of five games since seeing his role expanded (over 81% snap share in each of those contests). The target rate is always going to be low given the number of options on this offense. But he is averaging one red-zone touch per game over this run, and that’s a role that should catch your eye.

If Jordan Love is active, I’m fine with considering Kraft as a top-10 tight end. If not, I’m looking to go elsewhere against a Lions defense that ranks sixth in terms of limiting red-zone trips and second-best on third downs.

Tyler Conklin, TE | NYJ (vs. HOU)

Conklin caught a two-yard touchdown pass in traffic on Sunday and now has an end-zone target in three of his past four games. Of course, there is a low floor to consider here (three straight games with under five targets and four games this season with no more than 10 receiving yards), but it is clear that Aaron Rodgers trusts him as the end zone comes into focus.

I’m betting against Conklin long-term, but for now, he’s a viable option with the role inside the 20. The Texans are allowing a league-high 6.3% of short passes to result in touchdowns — that is where this big tight end can win. Conklin is near the top of my touchdown-or-bust options at the position. That makes him the type of tight end I stream in a good spot and replace the following week.

Zach Ertz, TE | WAS (at NYG)

As Ertz approaches his 34th birthday (one week from Sunday, mark your calendars), he refuses to show signs of decline. His on-field target share over the past four weeks is 24.4%, well ahead of his 13.7% rate through the first four weeks. Ertz continues to earn opportunities to produce for loyal PPR managers.

Ertz has scored just twice across his past 16 games, but if there’s a position where I’m most willing to overlook any path to an upside in favor of a floor, it’s this one. Ertz is seeing consistent usage in one of the game’s most explosive offenses. He is even averaging one deep target per game this season. Until this offense sees a WR2 emerge, Ertz is a top-15 tight end weekly and a top-12 option when the matchup is right (he’s my TE12 this week).