Sunday’s Week 8 Fantasy Football Start ‘Em or Sit ‘Em: Last-Minute Advice and Injury Updates for Every QB, WR, RB, and TE

Are you ready for Week 8? We have all the last-minute advice, analysis, and injury updates for every fantasy-relevant player in every game.

This game of ours is one of very little separation, and that makes every start-sit decision in your fantasy football lineups critical.

What I look to give you each week are my takes. My statistical-backed rankings are available, but you, the devoted fantasy football manager, need more than simply a number next to a name. You need to know why I stand where I do, and that’s my goal with this novel.

If you have a question, hit me up on Twitter (@KyleSoppePFN), but my hope is that this extended piece will give you the insight you’re looking for without relying on me landing on your specific question before lineups lock.

You don’t have to get ready if you stay ready — this piece is me staying ready to help you win the week!

Looking to make a trade in your fantasy league? Having trouble deciding who to start and who to sit? Setting DFS lineups? Check out PFN’s Free Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer, Start/Sit Optimizer, and DFS Lineup Optimizer to help you make the right decision!

Week 8 QB Start-Sit Advice

Aaron Rodgers, QB | NYJ (at NE)

We got it. We finally got it. Ever since Rodgers joined the Jets, there was speculation about him reuniting with Davante Adams and we finally got it in Week 7. The results were revolutionary:

Weeks 1-6:

• 61.8% completion rate (4.1% TD rate)
• 72.8% quick-pass rate
• 10.4 yards per completion
• 7.1 air yards per throw

Week 7:

• 61.5% completion rate (2.6% TD rate)
• 74.4% quick-pass rate
• 11.5 yards per completion
• 5.2 air yards per throw

What’s that? Those numbers are essentially identical? And the Jets actually averaged 7.4% fewer yards per drive on Sunday than they did through six weeks?

I still think the Jets are going to make a push at some point and Rodgers will be a part of that. But at this point, savvy fantasy managers will be reactionary as opposed to aggressive. We all have Lambeau leaps in our mind when thinking of Rodgers/Adams-led offenses, but that was years ago and things (the two players, the offensive environment, and the rules of the NFL) are different now.

Rodgers has the potential to move inside of my top 15 once we get some breadcrumbs, but last week, even against an elite defense, didn’t provide enough for me to trust him right now.

Aidan O’Connell, QB | LV (vs. KC)

O’Connell injured his throwing hand on his 10th pass of the afternoon against the Rams, jamming it on a defender as he finished the throwing process. The team elected to start him over Gardner Minshew II, but testing on Monday revealed a broken thumb, landing him on IR, a designation that requires four missed games (with their bye in Week 10, this makes Week 13 his earliest possible return).

If you have an IR slot in a Superflex setting, I’d use it on him as any starting signal-caller holds value in a league like that. Given he’s 2.5 years younger than Minshew, not to mention that he is under contract for another two seasons), he could well get this job back in December.

The Raiders close the fantasy season with the Jaguars and Saints, a favorable two-game run that will carry no weather risks. You have to keep an open mind in deep leagues like that, but outside of such a setting, you’re not waiting for him to return.

Andy Dalton, QB | CAR (at DEN)

Dalton’s lone pass in Week 1 against the Saints fell incomplete and that resulted in a 39.6 passer rating — he was hardly better than that on Sunday in Washington against one of the worst defenses in the NFL (44.0).

The win over the Raiders in Week 3 was fun, but we are well past his usable window in fantasy football ‘24. Dalton has failed to average even six yards per pass attempt in all four games since that shocking performance, throwing an interception in each of those contests (held without a touchdown toss in two of them).

This team could/should turn back to Bryce Young, and if you forced me to pick a quarterback to score the most points from Weeks 8-18, the second-year QB would get my vote.

Anthony Richardson, QB | IND (at HOU)

The idea of investing in a player like this makes all the sense in the world. Richardson has every tool, and given that we had very little in terms of NFL reps entering this season, why would we not be excited about his potential?

Is his profile not similar to Jayden Daniels, but sacrificing a little bit of speed for 30 pounds of muscle?

That’s why we aim high. If you’re right, you put yourself in a position to win your league (I’m guessing the team with Daniels is sitting pretty in your league). If you’re wrong, players like Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold could have been had late or picked up off the wire to give you a chance. In essence, you have the chance to win your league without the risk of losing it.

The process I stand by, but the results are clearly a problem. Through three drives on Sunday, Richardson had as many fumbles lost as completions. Over his past three starts, he has two more rushing attempts than completions.

Simply put, this offense doesn’t match what their starting quarterback does well, and I don’t see that changing. The Texans have been challenged downfield as often as anyone with the highest opponent average depth of throw, but they allow the fewest yards per deep pass attempt and that tanks Richardson’s ceiling.

Could he run for multiple scores in an effort to keep this game close? Anything is possible, and he certainly wasn’t shying away from contact. But without any confidence in his passing numbers, Richardson ranks outside of my top 15 at the position this week.

For what it’s worth, I’m already intrigued about next week’s matchup against the aggressive Vikings. Can he punish them for single coverage downfield? Can he break off a few chunk runs? If the breakout is coming, that is a spot I view as more interesting than this one.

Baker Mayfield, QB | TB (vs. ATL)

Here’s a fun note to stick in your pocket for the week — Mayfield has more top-two finishes at the position this season (four) than Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen combined (three).

As much as I like what Mayfield has done with Tampa Bay’s offense this season, dialing back his average depth per throw by 27.9% in the name of efficiency and trusting his supporting cast to make plays simply isn’t the offense that will take the field this week against the eighth-best per-pass defense in the NFL.

These two teams played in an instant classic in Week 5, a 36-30 comeback win for the Falcons in overtime. In that game, Kirk Cousins’ 509 passing yards was the standout stat line, but Mayfield completed 19 of 24 passes with three scores and no interceptions.

I expect this game to look nothing like that, given that the Bucs will be without both of their star receivers. If Tampa Bay is going to remain competitive in this one, they’ll have to play a very Chargers brand of football. And if you keep reading or have common sense, you’ll realize that can work for NFL teams but not fantasy investors in the passing game.

Chris Godwin and Mike Evans have accounted for 45.9% of the Buccaneers’ targets, 49% of their receiving yards, and 61.1% of their receiving scores. Mayfield and this coaching staff will have a game plan to play to the strengths of their healthy options, but the fantasy risk far outweighs the reward in a short week as this team tries to build this plane while they fly it.

Bo Nix, QB | DEN (vs. CAR)

Nix represents the area between on-field assets and fantasy difference-makers. In essence, he is the embodiment of how we all treated Jayden Daniels this offseason. We thought there would be a significant learning curve but that the role would be fantasy-friendly.

Turns out, we far underestimated Daniels, so let’s not make the same mistake and sleep on Nix. He’s the fourth rookie over the past 15 seasons to post consecutive games with 25 passing attempts and 60 rushing yards, joining Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen, and Robert Griffin III on that list.

Not bad company, right?

Nix is far from a finished product as a passer, but there are some signs of development. And with his rushing profile, that’s all it takes to put him in the top-15 conversation; on DFS radars in a plus matchup like this, even without the benefit of having teams on a bye.

Over the past three weeks, Nix’s passer rating is 49.6%, and his completion percentage on passes thrown 5+ yards downfield is up 19 percentage points over that stretch. Again, not perfect, but against the lowest pressure team in the league, at home, and coming off of an encouraging performance that carries the mini bye with it?

I’m in.

Brock Purdy, QB | SF (vs. DAL)

I highlighted Purdy’s rushing production last week (current pace: 374 yards) as the type of bonus that can make him a weekly fantasy stalwart, but that assumes the passing numbers are stable.

They weren’t last week in a tough matchup against the Chiefs (17/31 for 212 yards with zero touchdowns and three interceptions), and while this matchup is softer, it’s still an opponent coming off their bye and a game that he will enter without Brandon Aiyuk.

Purdy’s yards per pressured pass attempt are down 18.3% from a season ago. Against the fifth-best team in terms of creating chaos, there’s more risk than reward in the profile of San Francisco’s signal-caller.

Assuming that Tua Tagovailoa returns, I’d rather play him against the Cardinals than Purdy this week.

Bryce Young, QB | CAR (at DEN)

Young is back under center for the Panthers, though it should be noted that the returning to QB1 honors is more the result of Andy Dalton and team struggles than it is anything we’ve seen on the field.

Not one of Young’s 65 passes has resulted in a touchdown this season. We’ve seen limited passers produce viable fantasy numbers in the past, but with just one rushing scored and 2.3 carries per game across his career, Young doesn’t have a clear path to mattering in most instances.

Could he show growth with time? Could Dave Canales sink his teeth in and have the second-year QB trending up by the time this season ends? Those things are within the range of outcomes, but asking him to give you even QB2 numbers this week against a defense that is top-5 in pressure rate, sack rate, touchdown rate, and yards per pass is — well, it’s a stretch. At best.

Caleb Williams, QB | CHI (at WAS)

Patience. We as a society lack it, and we are no different in the fantasy space. Williams was a mess to open his career, and that might be a disservice to the word “mess.”

Weeks 1-3:

• 59.3% completion percentage
• 5.3 yards per attempt
• 65.3 passer rating
• 13.7 pressure passer rating
• 0.5 touchdown-to-interception rate

Williams’ struggles were magnified by Jayden Daniels’ immediate success (through those three weeks, Williams had the fourth-lowest passer rating in the NFL while Daniels had the fourth-highest). That, naturally, resulted in plenty of people writing him off as an impact fantasy asset in 2024.

But what’s this? A player who can develop with time?

Weeks 4-6:

• 74.1% completion percentage
• 8.5 yards per attempt
• 122.8 passer rating
• 109.6 pressure passer rating
• 7.0 touchdown-to-interception rate

That stretch included scoring the seven-most fantasy points at the position, a mere 1.02 behind the seemingly already-crowned Rookie of the Year in Daniels.

Williams certainly has plus-athleticism in his profile, but it’s less overwhelming than what Daniels or Lamar Jackson has access to. His rushing profile is somewhere in the middle of reckless Baker Mayfield, run-when-needed Joe Burrow, and schemed-up Daniel Jones. All three of those QBs have posted top-seven finishes against the Commanders this season, a plausible outcome for Chicago’s rookie with an extra week of prep time.

C.J. Stroud, QB | HOU (vs IND)

The receiver position has been gaining steam in terms of how valuable it is considered within the NFL, something that we’ve seen in the contracts at the top of the totem pole. We’ve also seen it by way of the Houston Texans.

Nico Collins was injured on Stroud’s way to a second straight game with over 330 passing yards and has missed two games now — Stroud has a total of 278 yards through the air in those contests. In Weeks 1-5, Stroud completed 51.2% of his 8.2 deep pass attempts per game and was threatening defenses vertically on a consistent basis. Since then, he’s at 36.4% on 5.5 attempts per game.

Stroud picked apart these Colts in the season opener (24/32 for 234 yards and a pair of touchdowns), but it should be noted that Collins accounted for 25% of his completions and 50% of his passing yards. This matchup doesn’t scare, but the limited ceiling does in a week where no teams are on a bye and a few of the fringe QB1s have plus matchups.

As of right now, I have Caleb Williams (at Commanders), Sam Darnold (at Rams), and Kirk Cousins (at Buccaneers on short rest) ranked ahead of Stroud for me, a sentence I didn’t think I’d type at any point in my life, let alone before Halloween.

Dak Prescott, QB | DAL (at SF)

In today’s NFL, any quarterback who doesn’t offer upside with their legs is walking a thin line between viable and liability. Prescott is typically thought of as a QB who has enough mobility to pick up a few points when the opportunity presents itself, but that simply isn’t the case anymore.

Over his past seven regular-season games, Prescott has averaged 28.9 pass attempts for every rush, and he’s totaled three yards on the ground over his past three contests.

Like it or not, Prescott is essentially a pocket-locked quarterback these days, which has resulted in just one fantasy finish this season better than QB10. His passing TD rate and EPA per dropback are both pacing for the worst marks of his career — numbers that I don’t think will bounce back in a significant way any time soon.

What is it that a quarterback like this needs? We’ve seen Matthew Stafford and Kirk Cousins do it in the past, both with the benefit of a feared running game and receiver depth, two things that Prescott simply doesn’t have.

The 49ers handled him with relative ease last October (153 passing yards with three interceptions). While I’m not forecasting struggles at that level on Sunday, I never had a thought of ranking Prescott as a reasonable starter in one-QB formats.

Daniel Jones, QB | NYG (at PIT)

I thought Jones did a good job of completing two-thirds of his passes last week against the Eagles given the pressure he was under (sacked seven times, more takedowns than he had in his previous three games combined). Those completions, however, did no damage, and things don’t project to get any better this week against maybe the best defense in the NFL.

Jones’ mobility is his path to putting together top-15 weeks, but did you know that he only has one game this season with four points as a rusher? I expect him to be on the run regularly this week with a spy preventing his ability to impact the game with his legs and that’s a problem — his out-of-pocket completion rate sits at a career-low 44.4% with just 16.7% of such attempts resulting in a first down.

Jones had a run of viability in Weeks 2-5, and he might be able to put together another stretch. I just don’t think it starts this week. After this week, the Giants get the Commanders and Panthers — assuming that the team stands by him, Brock Purdy/Jordan Love managers should have Jones identified as a great streamer with their starter’s bye week approaching.

Derek Carr, QB | NO (at LAC)

Carr looked like an MVP candidate through two weeks of leading the new generation’s Greatest Show on Turf. But before his injury, the clock had struck midnight, and now without the field-stretching talents of Rashid Shaheed (knee, out for the season), asking Carr to return anything close to viable production when cleared is a long shot.

In the season’s first two games, Carr completed 61.5% of his deep passes with a 113.0 passer rating on such passes. Since then, his numbers (45.4 passer rating and 35% complete) look more like Spencer Rattler than an MVP candidate.

The Chargers are a top-10 pass defense across the board and ultra-methodical on the offensive end. If we get word that Carr will be returning this weekend, the value change sits with Chris Olave, but Carr shouldn’t be anywhere near your radar in any format.

Deshaun Watson, QB | CLE (vs. BAL)

Watson wasn’t leading an explosive offense last week against the Bengals, but he did complete 15 of 17 passes before a non-contact Achilles injury ended his afternoon and his season.

Through six weeks, the Browns were the worst offense in the league in yards per play, third-down conversion rate, and percentage of drives that reached the red zone, among other things.

As embarrassing as those numbers are, the Browns are on the hook for two more seasons of Watson, both of which carry a cap hit of $72,935,000. We can have the future discussion of Cleveland’s offense another day, but moving forward, this is a struggling unit that will look drastically different for the remainder of 2024.

Drake Maye, QB | NE (vs. NYJ)

The Patriots have had seven different offensive line combinations in seven games, and that’s a tough way to make a living. That said, Maye has a 15+ yard rush and a 30-yard completion in both of his starts.

It’s pretty clear that Maye has a fantasy-friendly skill set and that the Patriots are willing to explore his upside. It’s only two starts, but he’s averaging 39 opportunities per game (pass + rush attempts). For reference:

• Jalen Hurts last season: 40.9
• Josh Allen last season: 40.6
• Lamar Jackson last season: 37.8

The Jets allow the fourth-lowest red-zone completion percentage (38.1%), and that keeps Maye out of my streaming ranks, but he won’t face this tough of an opponent every week — this kid is going to be an asset at some point down the stretch.

Gardner Minshew II, QB | LV (vs. KC)

Minshew will take back over this Raiders offense after O’Connell was placed on IR, an offense that couldn’t support him ranking better than QB18 at any point before being benched and no longer having Davante Adams.

I think Minshew’s aggression is better for Brock Bowers and the receivers, but in terms of QB fantasy value, there is nothing actionable to do here — I give him better odds to post the worst QB+ grade of the week than threaten to produce an impactful stat line.

Geno Smith, QB | SEA (vs. BUF)

Smith finally got on the board with his first multi-touchdown pass game of the season in Week 7, but there are red flags left and right in his profile. On a basic level, the efficiency that made him viable two years ago has disappeared. Over the past two weeks, he’s completed just 60% of his passes, a major step backward from his 71.9% rate through Week 5.

In digging deeper, his in-pocket touchdown rate is trending down for a second consecutive season while his interception rate in such spots is continuing to tick up. Smith’s deep completion percentage is down to 41.8% from 50% in 2023, and if DK Metcalf is unable to suit up, the floor is much more in play than anything close to a ceiling. He’s not a QB1 for me this week; if he’s missing his WR1, I’d rather roll the dice on Tua Tagovailoa.

Jalen Hurts, QB | PHI (at CIN)

The double Tush Push got Jalen Hurts home last week. He now has a rushing score or multiple touchdown tosses in five of six games. This team has an embarrassment of riches, which allows Hurts to sustain elite weekly value, even if he’s not a perfect product as a passer.

Cincinnati ranks 22nd in pressure rate and 30th in sack percentage. The Bengals aren’t likely to make Hurts uncomfortable, and with Saquon Barkley running as hard as he currently is, that puts him in a position to thrive as a passer.

I’ve bet this game to be the highest-scoring game of the day, which should allow for all interested parties to reach their fantasy-point quota.

Jameis Winston, QB | CLE (vs. BAL)

With Deshaun Watson (Achilles) out for the year, Cleveland is expected to go with Winston as their No. 1 option at quarterback and Dorian Thompson-Robinson (finger) in a backup role should he be cleared to play.

The Florida State product entered last week’s 21-14 loss as the emergency third QB and completed five of 11 pass attempts for 67 yards and a touchdown. With a full week of preparation leading into Sunday’s divisional matchup with Baltimore, we’ll see how it all shakes out– but I’m staying away.

Jared Goff, QB | DET (vs. TEN)

Jared Goff’s worst passer rating over the past month is 11.7 points higher than Patrick Mahomes’ best game of the season.

Think about how crazy that is. The Titans prefer to sit back in coverage (23rd in blitz rate and 31st in pressure rate), a defense that would be vulnerable to Jameson Williams’ speed working downfield. Goff, of course, won’t have his burner active, which hurts his ceiling, but I still think the floor is high enough to plug him in as a low-end QB1.

Jayden Daniels, QB | WAS (vs. CHI)

If you roster Jayden Daniels, you probably don’t need me to tell you that he left early last week and his status is unknown for Week 8. In the meantime, the team has gone out of its way to say how cautious they will be with their franchise centerpiece.

At this point, Daniels is matchup-proof, so if the Commanders play him, you do the same. He hardly played last week, and yet, he still extended his streak of consecutive games with a 30+ yard run or multiple touchdowns to three straight (and four of his past five).

Joe Burrow, QB | CIN (vs. PHI)

Joe Cool has multiple touchdown tosses in five of his past six games, and I like his chances of making it six of seven. The Eagles are more vulnerable through the air than on the ground, and with them ranking 27th in interception rate, there’s no reason to think that the Bengals won’t air it out this week as they try to win ball games despite a porous defense.

Cincinnati’s ability to hit home runs in the passing game is no secret, with both Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins earning targets at a high rate. So the fact that Philadelphia allows the eighth-most yards per catch after the reception only adds fuel to the Burrow fire.

Jordan Love, QB | GB (at JAX)

Jordan Love’s growth has been great to see and was present at the beginning of the Week 7 win. Through four drives, he threw 12 passes and targeted five different players multiple times.

Love has thrown multiple touchdown passes in 11 straight games (playoffs included), and he should continue to be effective against a Jaguars defense that allows 72.8% of opponent yards to come through the air, the fourth-highest rate in the NFL.

In a perfect world, Love gives us the rushing production that we saw early last season. That would allow him to level up, but even without that, he’s comfortably a top-10 signal-caller every week (QB4 for me in this specific spot).

Josh Allen, QB | BUF (at SEA)

Allen has posted two straight top-five finishes this season and has four such performances this season. His quick-pass rate is pacing for a career-high, and with his passing numbers trending up of late, it would appear that he is gaining comfort with his current set of teammates.

The addition of Amari Cooper can’t be overstated, and his impact figures to be felt with more time. Allen is locked in weekly, as he has access to a rare floor and ceiling.

Justin Herbert, QB | LAC (vs. NO)

Per our NFL Week 8 Stats and Insights piece, Herbert became the first QB since Ryan Tannehill (Week 2, 2021) to throw for 345 yards without a touchdown or interception. That’s just a fancy stat to tell you that Herbert had a historically boring fantasy game and that has pretty much been the story of his 2024 season.

This is the most run-centric team in the NFL, and even in a game where they asked their franchise QB to cut it loose, he didn’t produce top-15 numbers. The Saints’ defense is taking on water (26+ points allowed in four straight games), but I expect that to further encourage Jim Harbaugh to attempt to impose his will upon the visitors, not to attack through the air.

Herbert is a talented QB without any path to fantasy upside. In two-QB leagues, I prefer Trevor Lawrence and Drake Maye to him with relative ease.

Kirk Cousins, QB | ATL (at TB)

Cousins broke franchise records with 509 passing yards on 58 pass attempts in the Week 5 overtime win over the Buccaneers. If you exclude that game, he’s been QB20 or worse in four straight. If Bijan Robinson is going to be featured on the ground, I’ve got volume concerns.

Without the ability to produce with his legs, Cousins needs to be near perfect through the air to return top-12 value, and while I think he can have some success this week, will Atlanta need him to put up big numbers?

The Bucs lost a ton of firepower last week, and with a leaky run defense (30th in yards per carry allowed to running backs and 24th in overall rush defense by EPA), this script doesn’t set up nearly as cleanly as the first meeting between these teams.

Cousins is my QB13 right now, a ranking that could fall based on some injury news that impacts the QBs ranked just below him.

Kyler Murray, QB | ARI (at MIA)

Did you know that the Dolphins rank seventh-best among defenses in terms of yards per pass attempt? Or the best in terms of passing touchdown rate?

Murray has been held without multiple passing touchdowns in five straight games, and that limitation in this matchup means he can’t be considered a Tier 1 play for me. His ability to break the game with his legs is unique (45+ rushing yards in five of seven games) and elevates his fantasy floor to an elite level, even if we’ve yet to see much in the way of a ceiling as a passer in 2024.

Lamar Jackson, QB | BAL (at CLE)

Jackson was close to perfect on Monday night, and with the Browns being one of two defenses yet to intercept a deep pass, I see no reason why he can’t continue to build his case for a second consecutive MVP award.

He has a 15+ yard carry in every game this season and a 40+ yard completion in five of seven games. There is nothing Jackson can’t do right now, and he’s going to rank as a top-three quarterback for me every week moving forward without much thought.

Matthew Stafford, QB | LAR (vs. MIN)

Stafford opened the season with a QB13 performance but hasn’t been a top-20 option since. Of course, plenty of that had to do with the receiver injuries, and we get to correct some of that this week with Cooper Kupp expected back.

That’s the good. The bad is this matchup.

The Vikings ranked second in the league in blitz rate (41.6%, league average: 26%) and have brought the heat on at least 44.6% of dropbacks in four of their past five games (Week 7: season-high 55.2%). Stafford has thrown just two touchdown passes on 96 dropbacks against the blitz over his past nine games and the struggles extend even further than that:

Yards per blitzed pass attempt:

• 2021: 9.1 yards (137.6 passer rating)
• 2022: 7.5 yards (107.4 passer rating)
• 2023: 7.0 yards (82.4 passer rating)
• 2024: 6.7 yards (78.2 passer rating)

Stafford could work his way back into our good graces, but this is certainly a situation where I’ll be a week late rather than a week early.

Patrick Mahomes, QB | KC (at LV)

Mahomes has been surpassed as the MVP favorite, something fantasy managers have known for some time now. Kansas City is winning games, they just don’t need their All-Pro signal caller to do much. Mahomes was the 12th-highest-scoring quarterback to open the season, but he hasn’t had a top-15 finish since.

In fact, his longest play on Sunday was a deceptive run that netted 33 yards along the sideline. It was the first time since the 2022 Super Bowl in which his longest play came with his legs and not his arm, further proof that Mahomes is already in do-what-it-takes-to-win mode as opposed to pile-up-numbers mode.

It’s working for Kansas City, not for us. Mahomes struggled in the Christmas Day upset against these Raiders last season (5.3 yards per pass with one touchdown and one interception), so don’t take for granted that he is destined to leverage this plus matchup.

Mahomes is a low-end QB1 this week, ranking next to Caleb Williams and Sam Darnold — a sentence I definitely thought I’d be typing in October.

That said, Mahomes’ stock should rebound in short order with the team marrying his career-high deep completion percentage with DeAndre Hopkins after the Wednesday morning trade. I’m not sure that trade impacts Week 8 at all, but it certainly will moving forward, which should trend Mahomes back toward a top-five producing quarterback.

Russell Wilson, QB | PIT (vs. NYG)

Wilson scored 24.9 fantasy points against the Jets on Sunday night — that was his most fantasy points scored in a game in 400 days and the most a QB has scored against the Jets in 1,388 days (Tom Brady, Week 17, 2021). I thought Wilson looked good in his season debut, though I think we are still a ways away from him being considered for a starting role in standard fantasy leagues.

Last week, he posted an 8.2-yard aDOT, but only seven of his 29 attempts (24.1%) went over that number. We remember the “moon balls” he was throwing to George Picken,s and those were fun, but it was a lot of underneath passing and those passes are going to struggle to return top-15 value due to the lack of playmakers on this roster.

In my opinion, Wilson taking over this offense means more for his pass catchers than it does for his trajectory as an asset.

Sam Darnold, QB | MIN (at LAR)

After three straight finishes inside the top 10 at the position, this is three straight outside of it, as regression seems to be setting in. Even if you don’t want to regress his efficiency in a major way due to your trust in Kevin O’Connell’s system, the fact that he doesn’t run and has cleared 28 pass attempts just once makes him a bad bet based on math alone.

The Rams offer very little in the way of resistance, and that has Darnold ranked as a low-end QB1 for me this week, a tier I expect him to occupy for the next few games with similarly positive matchups awaiting him (Colts and Jaguars in Weeks 9-10).

Spencer Rattler, QB | NO (at LAC)

Despite posting a quick pass rate of at least 65% in both of his starts, Rattler has been sacked on over 11% of his dropbacks in both of those outings, a clear sign that this offensive line is struggling the way we worried it might when evaluating this team in the preseason.

Of course, getting Chris Olave (concussion) back is a boost, but Rattler needs much more than that when you consider that he hasn’t finished as a top-20 producer at the position in either start, and we now have all 32 teams in action.

The Chargers are a top-8 defense in yards per completion, touchdown pass rate, and interception rate – Rattler himself isn’t close to fantasy relevant, and his ability to support any of his talented teammates is a legitimate concern.

Trevor Lawrence, QB | JAX (vs. GB)

Lawrence has laid some breadcrumbs of late, and that’s good to see.

Average passer rating:

• Weeks 2-4: 75.4
• Weeks 5-7: 110.9

The problem is that, given his early season struggles, we need a lot more than breadcrumbs to get him into the QB1 conversation. Lawrence still isn’t looking to run, and that has him without a top-10 finish in 2024 (45 rush yards against the Browns in Week 2; 42 total since).

The weapons are on this roster for him to have spike weeks, and maybe you guess right in a DFS setting, but for season-long, there’s no reason to dig this deep. Lawrence has failed to throw multiple TD passes in the majority of his starts this season. He has also failed to complete 20 passes in the majority of his starts, leaving him without quality or quantity.

Tua Tagovailoa, QB | MIA (vs. ARI)

Tagovailoa was QB8 in the season-opening win over the Jaguars (338 passing yards, highlighted by an 80-yard Tyreek Hill touchdown) before getting injured in Week 2. The team has opened up his window to return to action, and the hope is that returns to play this week.

There is no way to know exactly what Tagovailoa looks like, and that is why I’m going to be cautiously optimistic. Right now, I have him ranked as my QB15 against the worst per-pass defense in the league, a ranking that could shift up a few spots should we get positive reports from Adam Beasley in the coming days.

Will Levis, QB | TEN (at DET)

Levis (AC sprain in his right shoulder) was forced to sit out Sunday, but if he is the answer to your fantasy lineup concerns, you’re very much asking the wrong questions.

There are flashes of fantasy viability on a week-to-week basis (12+ rushing yards in all four healthy games this season and 66.4% completion percentage, up from 58.4% as a rookie), but they are offset by inconsistent decision-making that makes sustaining drives a near impossibility.

The second-year QB will have his job back when healthy, but I found it telling that Mason Rudolph had no issue in completing 12 of his first 15 passes for 100 yards and a score. He spread those 12 completions around to six different players, with four of his teammates having a 10+yard gain.

Levis’ development is slow, if not non-existent, at this point in time. And with DeAndre Hopkins now a Chief, projecting that to change in a meaningful way is irresponsible. That combination makes him the rare QB who I’d consider sitting in a Superflex setting.

Week 8 RB Start-Sit Advice

Aaron Jones, RB | MIN (at LAR)

We weren’t 100% sure that Jones would give it a go last week. Any concerns about his health were dashed after exactly one carry, as his first touch was a 34-yard score. The big week resulted in Jones’ fourth game returning starting value to his fantasy managers, and that’s more than enough of a résumé to play him with confidence against the fourth-worst rush defense by EPA in the league.

Four times this season a running back has produced at least 24% over expectation against Los Angeles this season (David Montgomery, Josh Jacobs, James Conner, and D’Andre Swift), and with Jones pacing for his best boom/bust season since 2018 (the difference in percentage of carries that gain at least 10 yards with the ones that don’t get past the line of scrimmage), he’s flirting with top-15 status assuming that there are no lasting health concerns.

Alexander Mattison, RB | LV (vs. KC)

Mattison played 69.3% of the snaps last week, and with multiple receptions in three straight games gives him a little boost, but you’re swimming upstream if you’re banking on this offense in any capacity outside of tight end.

Efficiency has never been a strength of Mattison’s, and that puts him in a position to need a touchdown to earn your trust. That’s not an ideal profile to begin with, let alone for an offense that hasn’t cleared 20 points in over a month.

The Chiefs are winning with defense these days, and they’ve succeeded in shutting down the run in a big way. They’ve faced Jordan Mason, J.K. Dobbins, Derrick Henry, Alvin Kamara, and Bijan Robinson this season and have yet to allow an RB to reach 13.5 PPR points.

Mattison is barely on the Flex radar for deep leagues, and that’s saying something for a back I expect to lead his team in carries comfortably.

Alvin Kamara, RB | NO (at LAC)

I got some pushback when I said it a few weeks ago when Kamara was still running hot, but the more time passes, the more I like it.

Isn’t Kamara just expensive Rachaad White but without a Bucky Irving behind him?

Kamara doesn’t have a 10+ yard carry (or a top 15 finish at the position) in three straight games. Over his past four, despite having a pair of rushing touchdowns, the majority (56.9%) of his points have come as a receiver because there simply is nowhere to go on the ground (0.98 yards per carry before contact) behind an iffy offensive line.

Does Kamara magically become efficient on the ground if Derek Carr is back in the mix? I’m skeptical; he doesn’t have a 20-yard run this season and picked up just 3.4 ypc in Carr’s most recent three starts.

Kamara is going to return viable fantasy production because of his role in the passing game, but the ceiling isn’t that of a top-10 option without much efficiency on the ground, and this isn’t the matchup for him to turn around his success rate on handoffs.

You’re playing Kamara, but you need to be aware that the 290-yard, five-touchdown version of him that we saw through two weeks is nothing more than a distant memory.

Antonio Gibson, RB | NE (vs. NYJ)

The Patriots made a big deal of “benching” Rhamondre Stevenson in Week 6, and that resulted in Gibson getting 16 touches. That’s his only game since Week 2 in which he reached double figures in touches. In an offense with plenty of limitations, a lack of volume means a lack of value as the scoring equity is low.

Gibson can be rostered given that he has a consistent role, but it’s not a role I plan on ranking as viable any time soon. If you wanted to move on from him for one of these receivers stepping into a bigger role (be it in Detroit or Tampa Bay), I wouldn’t blame you.

Austin Ekeler, RB | WAS (vs. CHI)

Ekeler hasn’t seen more than two targets in three straight games when Brian Robinson Jr. is active, and I can’t imagine that changes if this team elects to take a cautious approach with Jayden Daniels.

The veteran has looked good in doses this season, but that’s the plan. He’s yet to have a 10-carry contest this season, and that includes a Robinson DNP. Betting on Ekeler is a parlay that I’m not willing to make most weeks and certainly not in a tough matchup like this with no teams on a bye.

Bijan Robinson, RB | ATL (at TB)

Robinson has consecutive top-10 finishes after not doing so once through five weeks as it would appear that he is trending in a very profitable direction for those who invested a first round pick on him in August.

The Falcons scored 36 points against the Buccaneers in the Week 5 meeting, but fantasy managers were left wanting more as their star RB had just 77 yards of offense. I’d happily bet him to exceed that production in this spot, as the Bucs have allowed 17+ points to five different running backs this season and will be operating on short rest after trying to tackle Derrick Henry for 60 minutes on Monday night.

Robinson is a real threat to lead the position in scoring this week, and that’ll have me invested in the DFS streets.

Braelon Allen, RB | NYJ (at NE)

As a season wears on and the games become more important, their rotations become more telling of who they trust.

Allen’s snap shares:

• Week 4 vs. Denver Broncos: 34.3%
• Week 5 at Minnesota Vikings: 25.4%
• Week 6 vs. Buffalo Bills: 18.6%
• Week 7 at Pittsburgh Steelers: 9.1%

Allen has shown a level of burst in his opportunities this season, but I think we were all a little over our skis in thinking that this offense could support two running backs. The rookie is a high-end handcuff, and that’s valuable as long as you don’t try wish-casting him as a Flex candidate.

Breece Hall, RB | NYJ (at NE)

Hall has been a top-10 producer at the position in both games since the coaching staff change, averaging 155 scrimmage yards, 15 carries, and 7.5 targets across those games. If he sustains that level of usage moving forward, he’ll be positioned to pay off the draft capital you spent on him this season.

Hall totaled 83 yards and a score in the Week 3 win over these Patriots, a stat line that is well within reason to project this weekend when you consider that Joe Mixon, Jordan Mason, and Tank Bigsby all produced more points than that in their New England matchup.

The Patriots allow rushing scores at the fifth-highest rate this season, giving Hall an out, even if his efficiency lags.

Brian Robinson Jr., RB | WAS (vs. CHI)

With five touchdowns in his past four games and a top-25 ranking in all six games this season, Robinson has proven to be one of the more valuable RBs this season when you factor in his preseason ADP.

I don’t love the fact that Robinson hasn’t seen a target in consecutive games or that he has gone four straight without a 20-yard touch. Those recent struggles position him to bust in this tough matchup should Jayden Daniels sit, though his sheer volume would still have him ranked inside my top 30 in that scenario.

This defense has been one of the five best in the league over the past 12 months, that’s a fact. It’s also true that this defense has allowed production to feature running backs. Jonathan Taylor, Kyren Williams, Tony Pollard, and Chuba Hubbard all hit 17.5 PPR points in this matchup, giving me hope that Robinson can be a strong RB2 if this offense is at full strength.

Bucky Irving, RB | TB (vs. ATL)

In Week 5, the Bucs ran for 160 yards on the Falcons with Rachaad White, Irving, and Baker Mayfield all having a run that picked up at least 15 yards. We didn’t learn much from the Week 7 blowout, but it would appear that Tampa Bay is looking to deploy a committee, something that could render all involved useless.

To my eye (and spreadsheet), Irving has the most juice in this backfield, but it doesn’t matter what I think. I’m not comfortable in projecting any of these backs for RB2 production in this matchup against the third-best defense in terms of running back touchdown rate.

Chase Brown, RB | CIN (vs. PHI)

Brown has established himself as the lead back in Cincinnati, but he’s far from bulletproof, and that’s why he’s nothing more than a low-end RB2 for me this week. In Week 7, Brown picked up just 44 yards on 15 carries, and half of them came on a single outlier carry.

That’s consistent with what we saw in Week 6 as well, and the reliance on a single carry is scary. Over the past two weeks, he has 97 yards on 25 carries. That’s not great — and when you consider that 52 of those yards came on two attempts, it gets even worse from a projectability standpoint. Forty percent of his carries in each of those contents failed to get past the line of scrimmage.

The Eagles’ defense isn’t one I fear, but they’ve been bending and not breaking as they own the lowest RB rushing touchdown rate.

Brown is pretty clearly “the guy” in Cincy, but that doesn’t make him a locked-in fantasy starter.

Chuba Hubbard, RB | CAR (at DEN)

Hubbard has at least 17 touches in five straight games and has finished no worse than an RB2 in six straight. At this point, Hubbard is essentially matchup proof, though there is no denying that his upside looks very different when this team is remotely competitive.

Hubbard hasn’t earned a single target in the two 30-point losses this season, but he has at least four grabs in every other game. I’m not yet worried about the potential impact of Jonathon Brooks, though that does factor into the rest-of-season outlook, as this team could opt to get the rookie up to speed as this lost season comes to an end.

We can cross that bridge when we get to it. The Broncos have allowed the fifth-lowest running back rushing touchdown rate and held Alvin Kamara to just 10 yards on seven carries last week. The matchup puts him on the fringe of RB1 status instead of the middle of it: You’re starting him wherever you have him and continuing to do so until we get a feel for their plan for Brooks.

D’Andre Swift, RB | CHI (at WAS)

Swift (Weeks 4-6)

That is the entire list of running backs with three consecutive top-six finishes at the position this season. Not Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, or the I-always-seem-to-get-there-even-if-it’s-ugly Alvin Kamara.

Scroll back up, and you’ll see that Swift’s run of dominance aligns with the growth of his rookie quarterback. If you’re in on Williams continuing to develop, I think you have no choice but to label his workhorse back as a top-15 play moving forward and potentially higher.

Across those three games, Swift has produced 22.2% over expectation (Weeks 1-3: -43.5%) and seen his yards per carry before contact spike by 62.8% despite a rise in loaded boxes as a concentrated effort is being made to slow him down.

Of course, looking at the full picture is the responsible thing to do here. In doing so, you’ll notice that Swift has caught 100% of his targets over this stretch while facing the bottom of the barrel in terms of run defenses (Jaguars, Panthers, and Rams).

That’s why I’m not suggesting that he is a candidate to lead the position in scoring the rest of the way or anything like that, but with his bye week now in the rearview and a favorable run-out during the end of the fantasy season (home games against the Lions and Seahawks in Weeks 16-17), buying “high” on Swift isn’t a bad idea if his current manager is looking to cash in this chip.

Swift is younger than you think (25 years old), and with Chicago’s offense trending in the right direction, this is a stock I’m looking to get exposure to — even at its current-day cost.

Dalvin Cook, RB | DAL (at SF)

Fantasy managers understandably want to chase the RB1 in the Cowboys offense. It should be a very good offense and bring touchdown upside. Fantasy managers also tend to gravitate toward brand names. Dalvin Cook is a brand name.

With the Vikings, Cook was one of the best running backs in the NFL. You remember that. You hope can recapture it with the Cowboys. But, it’s 2024.

Last year, with the Jets, Cook was not only one of the worst running backs in the NFL, but he was the worst running back in the NFL. His EPA per rush was -0.42, which ranked dead last among RBs by a very wide margin. For comparison, the second-worst RB was at -0.31. Cooks’s success rate was also just 32.8%.

In previous years, we saw fantasy managers pick up Le’Veon Bell after the Ravens signed him or Adrian Peterson after the Seahawks signed him. It never works.

Perhaps the 29-year-old Cook can buck the trend and be the outlier. If you have a spot on the back of your roster, stick Cook there and see how he looks. But there’s a reason he couldn’t get off the practice squad for two months. Please do not start him in his first live action of the season against the 49ers in Week 8.

David Montgomery, RB | DET (vs. TEN)

He was banged up early last week, and while he returned to action, it was after Jahmyr Gibbs had established himself as a game-wrecker, resulting in the worst game of the season for the veteran (12 touches for 70 yards).

James Cook, D’Andre Swift, and Josh Jacobs all failed to reach 10 fantasy points against this underrated Titans defense, but given the efficiency of this Lions offense, I’m not using that information to downgrade Monty in a significant way.

He (+20.7% over expectation this season, more than double the rate he posted last season) and Jahmyr Gibbs want to be known as Sonic and Knuckles, a nickname that passes the smell test. I’m here for that and everything that touches this Detroit offense right now!

Derrick Henry, RB | BAL (at CLE)

Inevitable.

I really can’t think of any word better for Henry than that. He has a 50-yard run in three of his last four games and has scored in every game of his Ravens career. After years in Tennessee where the support around him put the game script in question by way of a one-sided score, Henry is thriving with a Super Bowl contender. There is no reason to think that changes any time soon.

Recent lead RBs vs. Cleveland:

• Chase Brown, Week 7: 53 yards and zero touchdowns on 17 touches
• Saquon Barkley, Week 6: 54 yards and zero touchdowns on 20 touches

Ask me if I’m concerned about that.

Not one bit. I wanted to plant the seed about this defense trending in the right direction, but it’s not actionable this week. Nothing is.

Inevitable.

Devin Singletary, RB | NYG (at PIT)

After missing nearly a month, Singletary returned just in time to see his offensive line get bullied for 60 minutes. His six touches against the Eagles totaled just 21 yards against the Eagles, but that’s not my primary concern. The touch count was the result of the game flow, but the fact that he didn’t get a carry until New York’s fourth drive was a red flag.

I don’t think there are many usable weeks left for the Giants’ backfield and even fewer for Singletary. Tracy is my highest-ranked NYG RB this week, but neither of them ranks inside of my top 30 at the position.

De’Von Achane, RB | MIA (vs. ARI)

The receivers are going to get the majority of the attention with Tua Tagovailoa returning to the field, but let’s not overlook the fact that Achane caught 14 passes in Tagovailoa’s two starts and has totaled just 12 since.

In addition to the role in the passing game, an effective player running this offense stands to benefit Achane in a massive way. Compared to last season, his yards per carry before contact are down 46.8%, an impactful metric for any running back, but specifically one that can score from anywhere if he can get a little momentum.

Last season, Achane produced 54.2% over expectations. He sits at negative 9.9% through seven weeks this season – there was always regression to build in from his rookie campaign, but a middle ground seems like a reasonable expectation once this offense returns to form. That puts Achane back into the RB1 conversation.

Ezekiel Elliot, RB | DAL (at SF)

Ahead of the Cowboys’ Week 6 game against the Lions, Ezekiel Elliott spoke to coaches about his lack of touches. In response, he saw the season’s highest snap share and carry count since Week 1. The Cowboys suffered one of their worst home losses in franchise history.

Now, the loss certainly was not on Zeke. But it prompted some changes behind the scenes. One such move is activating Dalvin Cook.

Much like Elliott, Cook was also once an elite running back. Now 29 years old, he is well past his prime. In 2023, it looked like he had nothing left. But the Cowboys haven’t seen him in a game. They have seen Elliott and know he doesn’t offer anything at this stage of his career. For the Cowboys, Cook is the unknown. It likely won’t be any better, but it can’t hurt to try.

Elliott may be relegated to seldom-used RB3 behind Rico Dowdle and Cook in Week 8. Even worse, he might be a healthy inactive, as he does not play special teams, making it more prudent to go with Deuce Vaughn as the RB3. Regardless, Elliott is as far away from fantasy relevance as he’s been since he was drafted in 2016.

Jahmyr Gibbs, RB | DET (vs. TEN)

Jared Goff was great for the third straight week, but I’d argue that without Gibbs (19 touches for 160 yards and two touchdowns), the Lions wouldn’t have even been competitive with the Vikings last week, let alone victorious.

The second-year back is amazing and has a 20+ yard touch in five straight games. There is no new light I can shed on Gibbs, but I can make you think.

After watching him cripple a few professional athletes last week on his way to the end zone as a part of a 45-yard run, I was left wondering what is more difficult to do: tackle Gibbs in space or Derrick Henry when he is running downhill?

James Conner, RB | ARI (at MIA)

Conner recorded his 1,500th career touch last week, and if you ask the Chargers, he certainly didn’t look like a player with that sort of usage on his legs. He played a huge role in setting up the game-winning field goal and finished the contest with 152 yards on 21 touches against a defense that entered the week with as impressive of a profile as any in the league.

The last four featured running backs against the Dolphins have averaged 18.8 PPR points, and opponents have gained a league-high 45.8% of their yards against Miami on the ground. Father Time might catch up to Conner at some point this season, but I’m a man of data and none of the data accumulated through seven weeks suggests that a cliff is coming for Conner’s fantasy stock.

James Cook, RB | BUF (at SEA)

After Ray Davis impressed in Week 6 with Cook (toe) sidelined, there were some whispers about a committee situation. That, however, didn’t look like the plan as Cook closed out Buffalo’s fourth possession last week with an 11-yard score and he was the only player on the team with a rushing attempt up to that point.

The knock on Cook entering this season was his limitations as a scoring option, but with six TDs over his past five games, those concerns no longer exist. Buffalo has an implied total of 25 points in this game, and I’m going to bet them to go over that number – if my bet cashes, Cook could finish the week as a top-10 performer at the position.

Javonte Williams, RB | DEN (vs. CAR)

Williams looked great in last Thursday night’s blowout of the Saints, and given the direction he is trending, I think it might just be here to stay. Despite three different running backs recording a first-quarter carry for the Broncos, Williams’ star shined the brightest, and that is likely to strengthen his hold on the bell-cow role that we were questioning just a few short weeks ago.

Last week, Williams was on the field for 71% of the snaps when the score differential was single digits. Over the past three weeks, any metric you look at is trending in the right direction.

Weeks 1-4:

• 31.8% fantasy points under expectation
• 7.5% of carries gained 10+ yards
• 1.02 yards per carry before contact

Weeks 5-7:

• 13.5% fantasy points over expectation
• 15.2% of carries gained 10+ yards
• 3.24 yards per carry before contact

We spent the offseason suggesting that Williams being two years removed from the knee injury gave him access to a ceiling far beyond what we saw in 2023. For those who invested, it would appear that this stock is ready to take off.

Even if you don’t believe that the Broncos are a playoff team, the goal of developing Bo Nix is atop their to-do list, and establishing Williams is a big part of that. In Weeks 4-7, Nix has completed 71.4% of his play-action passes with a 100.6 passer rating, a massive leap forward from his numbers through three weeks (59.3% and 56.4).

Williams is easily a top-15 running back this week in a perfect matchup off of the mini-bye. While his production could fade early in November (Ravens/Chiefs in Weeks 9-10), I expect him to make some noise when your fantasy league champion is being decided (Weeks 15-17: Colts, Chargers, and Bengals).

Jaylen Warren, RB | PIT (vs. NYG)

In Russell Wilson’s debut, Warren set a season-high in carries (12) and targets (three). The usage is worth keeping in the back of your head, but if Najee Harris’ recent form is sustained (35 carries for 208 yards and two touchdowns), Warren is going to struggle to provide managers with Flex value.

For years, we’ve complained about the most explosive Steeler running back not getting enough work. But are we sure Warren is that? None of his 42 touches this season have gained more than 12 yards, giving Pittsburgh no reason to involve him further.

As this offense evolves with Wilson, maybe Warren’s versatility proves more valuable than it has been up to this point. Until proven otherwise, I’m viewing him as a desperation Flex who isn’t likely to crack my top 30 any time soon.

Jaylen Wright, RB | MIA (vs. ARI)

With this backfield at full strength, Wright was an afterthought in Week 7 (season-low 8.8% snap share), and that could prove to be a theme for the rest of the season.

I’m not optimistic that he touches your starting lineup at any point the rest of the way, but I would hold through this week at the very least, understanding that the return of Tua Tagovailoa could come with wrinkles that are specific to him.

J.K. Dobbins, RB | LAC (vs. NO)

Dobbins is healthy, and that’s good to see as we approach the midway point in the season, but his production has fallen off a cliff.

• Weeks 1-2: 27 carries for 266 yards (9.9 YPC)
• Weeks 3-6: 68 carries for 212 yards (3.1 YPC)

Of course, there are two sides to every matchup. As much as Dobbins has struggled, I’d argue that the Saints’ run defense is even more alarming. Javonte Williams scored 26.1 points against them last Thursday, coming on the heels of Sean Tucker and Bucky Irving combining for 52.7 points against them in Week 6.

For the season, New Orleans is allowing the most yards per carry before contact to opposing running backs, a flaw that figures to rear its head at some point in this game given the sheer volume of attempts that they are likely to face.

I think Dobbins provides viable numbers this week, and if I’m right on that, I’d be looking to get out of the Dobbins business.

Joe Mixon, RB | HOU (vs. IND)

The only thing Mixon failed to do against the Packers last week was Lambeau Leap. The Green Bay faithful wouldn’t let him plunge into the first row, and that might hurt the ego, but he can’t be feeling too bad after piling up 124 yards and a pair of touchdowns.

Mixon has three top-five finishes this season and has been operating at full strength after missing nearly a month. I’ve got my questions about this passing game with Nico Collins on the shelf, but a lack of balance hasn’t been a deal-breaker against the Colts this season.

Over the past three weeks, Tank Bigsby, Tony Pollard, and De’Von Achane have averaged 18.1 PPR points against Indy. This is the only run defense in the league that is a bottom-five defense in terms of running back yards per carry before and after contact this season.

I’m always skeptical about an older back sustaining value as the weather turns, but there are zero concerns in the scope of Week 8.

Jonathon Brooks, RB | CAR (at DEN)

Brooks tore his ACL against TCU on November 11, 2023, and is nearing his NFL debut. How the 1-6 Panthers go about using their second-round pick is anyone’s guess, but for our purposes, things appear to be pretty straightforward.

Chuba Hubbard is averaging 5.2 yards per carry and 17.9 touches per game for Carolina, giving them every excuse to ease in Brooks, understanding that the rookie isn’t going to save their already lost 2024 season. This may not sound ideal for those of us who invested in Brooks this summer, but I actually like how this lines up because it means you don’t have to guess.

You’re benching Brooks. You are in a position to wait and see. Is it possible that Brooks is given enough work to be Flexed with time? It is, but I need to see it, maybe twice, before acting on it. He could well play before the Week 11 bye, but I’d be surprised if he is of fantasy lineup consideration before Thanksgiving.

The idea that Carolina could treat Brooks like Las Vegas did Zamir White last season is my hope and why I’m holding in spots where I have a competitive team. The Raiders used last December as a trial run for what the next season was going to look like. With Hubbard a free agent after this season, there is a path to similar usage.

Jonathan Taylor, RB | IND (at HOU)

Taylor sustained a right high-ankle sprain Week 4 against the Steelers and has missed the last three games as a result, but his ability to handle a full allotment of practice reps both Thursday and Friday indicates he’s ready to take on most, if not all, of his normal workload.

Prior to the injury, he averaged 19.5 touches for 106.5 yards from scrimmage per game while scoring four rushing TDs in four contests. If Taylor cedes any work to other RBs, though, Trey Sermon and Tyler Goodson will be on hand to give him the occasional breather.

In his absence, Sermon has played 57% of the snaps, while Tyler Goodson has played 43%. However, Goodson has far outperformed Sermon in that stretch, averaging 4.7 yards per rush compared to 2.9 for Sermon.

That said, Taylor (or the backs behind him) isn’t returning to an ideal matchup. Houston allows the fourth-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs and is sixth-best by EPA per rush.

Jordan Mason, RB | SF (vs. DAL)

Mason entered last week with a shoulder injury, but he wasn’t mentioned on the final injury report and gave us a 25+ yard run for the fourth consecutive week despite posting his worst showing based on expectations this season (-40.6%).

Mason has been fine recently but nowhere near the monster he was to open 2024. He has yet to score in October, and as we near the return of Christian McCaffrey, his days with an elite role appear numbered.

With Dallas ailing on the defensive side of the ball and every pass catcher in San Francisco banged up, this is about as optimal a spot as you could ask for. Only the Commanders have reached the red zone on a higher percentage of their drives than the 49ers (43.7%), and with the Cowboys allowing running back rushing scores at the third highest rate, Mason is deserving of an RB1 label, even despite his recent struggles.

Josh Jacobs, RB | GB (at JAX)

Jacobs’ bizarre streak came to an end last week as he, on his 212th career reception, finally found pay dirt. The 211 scoreless catches are the most to start a career in NFL history and while the score was nice, I was more encouraged by the season-high reception count (five).

Emanuel Wilson has shown well for himself in limited opportunities and is an interesting stash in the deepest of leagues as a handcuff option in a potent offense, but he’s no threat to Jacobs’ weekly role.

Six times this season a running back scored 15 fantasy points against the Jags, and I like Jacobs to make it seven on Sunday.

Kareem Hunt, RB | KC (at LV)

Hunt has settled in as the lead back in Kansas City by posting a snap share north of 60% in consecutive contests, and why wouldn’t they continue to trust the veteran? All he has done in those games is turn 49 carries into 180 yards and three scores.

The lack of explosive potential is moderately annoying (none of those carries have gained more than 13 yards), but beggars can’t be choosers; if you added Hunt, you’re turning a weekly profit for the league’s best offense in terms of success rate.

The Raiders have allowed an RB to reach 15.5 fantasy points in every game this season (Chuba Hubbard, J.K. Dobbins, and Najee Harris all cleared 20 points), due in large part to them allowing the fourth-most yards per carry after contact to running backs this season.

There are plenty of sustainability questions to ask about the Chiefs, but their backfield isn’t one of them. Hunt deserves to be locked into fantasy lineups across the board until otherwise noted (my guess is that he is a top-15 option at the position until we get some sort of update on Isiah Pacheco).

Kenneth Walker III, RB | SEA (vs. BUF)

Walker has a lot of Saquon Barkley in his game, and we’ve seen it every time he has touched the field this season as he has posted nothing but top-15 finishes. Zach Charbonnet hasn’t proven to be a threat in the least; with Walker showing off his improved versatility every week, there’s little that can talk me off of him as an elite option.

Walker ranks up there with the best running backs in the league. The three best that have faced the Bills this season (De’Von Achane, Derrick Henry, and Breece Hall) have all cleared 21 PPR fantasy points, producing 25.4% over expectation in those games. Buffalo is allowing the third-most yards per carry to running backs before contact and if Walker can find the open field … good luck.

Kyren Williams, RB | LAR (vs. MIN)

Death, taxes, and Williams end-zone dances. He became the sixth player over the past 25 years with a nine-game touchdown streak when he scored from 13 yards out in the second quarter last week. His role in close is as friendly as it gets into the league and with Cooper Kupp expected back, the overall success rate of this offense should tick up for the remainder of the season

The lack of versatility combined with some offensive concerns keeps Williams out of my top tier at the position (Derrick Henry and Saquon Barkley). Over his last two games. He has 43 carries and just one target, a rate that is unlikely to improve as this team gets healthier.

Jahmyr Gibbs lit up the Vikings for 32 fantasy points last week, but that was just the third time this season an RB reached double figures against this aggressive unit. My Williams projection this week comes in lighter than weeks past, but not at such a level to knock him out of RB1 status.

Najee Harris, RB | PIT (vs. NYG)

Harris has posted consecutive games with 100+ rushing yards and a touchdown after not clearing 70 rushing yards OR scoring a touchdown in any of Pittsburgh’s first five games this season. And the advanced numbers tell you exactly what your eyes do.

Najee Harris recorded 21 carries for 102 yards & TD on Sunday night, resulting in his most missed tackles forced on runs this season (7) and his 2nd straight game with positive RYOE (+17).

Harris has amassed +80 RYOE over the last two weeks (2nd in NFL).#NYJvsPIT | #HereWeGo pic.twitter.com/ffzTKIDw1Q

— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) October 21, 2024

The shift to Russell Wilson, for me, looks like a net win for Harris. It’s possible that the running lanes aren’t as clear as they were with the threat of Justin Fields breaking contain on the perimeter, but the overall competency of Pittsburgh’s offense, along with Wilson’s limitations on the ground at 35 years old, should have Harris labeled as a strong RB2 moving forward.

He faces a Giants team that just gave up 26.7 fantasy points to Saquon Barkley in his revenge game and allowed him to pick up 5.65 yards per carry after first contact — the most they’ve allowed to a running back in a game this season.

I have Harris ranked ahead of productive players in tough matchups like Alvin Kamara (at Chargers) and Brian Robinson Jr. (vs. Bears).

Nick Chubb, RB | CLE (vs. BAL)

The game script didn’t do us any favors, but I thought Week 7’s usage was a net positive for Chubb’s (35.1% snap share) managers. The former All-Pro received seven of the team’s first 10 handoffs. While those carries only picked up 14 yards, I was happy that they viewed him as their RB1.

He punched across a one-yard score, a role I expect to be his moving forward but don’t assign much value to given the trajectory of this offense. With Deshaun Watson out for the season, we don’t know exactly what to expect in terms of pass rate over expectation, but I would guess that this offense is going to look like what the Chargers do: shorten the game as much as possible.

This, of course, is about as bad a spot as it gets for an offense in disarray trying to work back their bell cow off of a devastating knee injury. I remain somewhat hopeful that Chubb can be Flexed down the stretch this season, but the Ravens’ combination of elite run defense and a potent offense that can eliminate the desire to run the ball altogether is one you’d be wise to avoid.

Rachaad White, RB | TB (vs. ATL)

It was White who led this backfield in snap share last week in the one-sided loss to the Ravens, though we did trend toward the three-headed monster that was mentioned following the big Week 6 win against the Saints.

Week 7 snap shares:

• Rachaad White: 47.4%
• Bucky Irving: 35.9%
• Sean Tucker: 19.2%

Irving held the slight edge in the first quarter, and the first half — before Tampa Bay was scripted out of balance — was about as even as you’ll see in a three-way split (White: 44.1%, Irving: 32.4%, and Tucker: 26.5%).

I still think Irving is the most valuable back in town for the remainder of the season, but with the snaps being divided like this in an offense that projects to have far less success this week than the first seven due to their injuries at receiver, I don’t know how you can feel great about playing any of them.

White sits outside of my top 30 this week in the same tier as Tyler Allgeier and Nick Chubb.

Raheem Mostert, RB | MIA (vs. ARI)

The veteran running back is the definition of a stash. Mostert has looked fine after missing a month (30 carries for 130 yards across two games), and with Tua Tagovailoa due back, his touchdown-scoring prowess could work him into Flex conversations as the season wears on.

At the moment, however, I’m sitting tight. He lost a fumble last week, and there is some rust to be expected under center. That combination makes returning value a long shot. But is there a world in which, after this week, he is bordering on the top 30 at the position? I think it’s possible, if not likely, and with the Bills, Rams, and Raiders on the docket for Weeks 9-11, you could be rewarded for holding onto him sooner rather than later.

Ray Davis, RB | BUF (at SEA)

Davis slid back into his RB2 role with James Cook active, and that meant zero value. The box score will reflect a touchdown, and it was an impressive one from 16 yards out, but it came with less than two minutes remaining in a blowout victory.

Cook is the lead back in this offense without much question and the only one that can be played with any level of confidence. Davis’ Week 6 explosion earned him the handcuff honors; while that holds value, you’re overthinking things if you’re trying to wedge him into your lineup this week.

Rhamondre Stevenson, RB | NE (vs. NYJ)

Numbers are what you make of them.

Stevenson accounted for 90% of New England’s running back rushing yards last week, averaging 31.9% more yards per carry before contact than he has this season. His target count tripled Antonio Gibson’s, and the Patriots finally scored on their first possession.

Stevenson posted his lowest elusive rating of the season and picked up a total of seven yards after contact on Sunday. He didn’t get a single red-zone touch and finished behind Gibson in receiving yards in a game in which the Patriots were scripted out of the run due to being outscored by 19 points in the second quarter.

See what I mean? Both of those paragraphs are 100% true, and they left you feeling very differently about Stevenson’s outlook. I lean more toward the latter recap as New England seems to be actively trying to avoid featuring him.

Gibson got banged up early (he eventually returned), so it was JaMycal Hasty finishing that first drive with a 16-yard touchdown catch. The third-string running back had more catches in Week 7 than Stevenson had targets, further evidence that the versatile profile we fell in love with is a thing of the past.

This matchup doesn’t scare me as much as it has in the past, but this is a team motivated to see what they have in Drake Maye, not Stevenson. If you’re pressed for a Flex option, these 8-12 touches hold some value, but expecting some sort of resurgence isn’t something I’d bank on.

Rico Dowdle, RB | DAL (at SF)

Updated at 6:50 PM ET on Sunday, December 22
Dowdle is active for tonight's game.

Don’t look now, but the Cowboys have a lead back who you can trust. Yes, I’m well aware that Dowdle doesn’t have a 15-yard carry or a rushing touchdown this season — numbers that I don’t exactly make a habit of targeting.

Thanks to his versatility, however, Dowdle has produced 27.1% more fantasy points over his past three games than expected (eight catches on nine targets for 72 yards and a pair of touchdowns helps).

Defenses are daring the Cowboys to run with one of the lowest loaded box rates against in the league, opting to send as much coverage in CeeDee Lamb’s direction as humanly possible, and who can blame them?

Dallas continues to operate as a top-10 offense in terms of pass rate over expectation, which helps give Dowdle weekly RB2 potential (80% catch rate this season, and his pace from the past month is that of a 51-catch season). With him seemingly having iced Ezekiel Elliott in this RB competition (Elliott had 10 carries in Week 1 and hasn’t cleared eight since), Dowdle doesn’t have a direct line to failure.

This isn’t a great matchup by any means, and that has Dowdle down in my rankings from where he will land most weeks. Nevertheless, his role should have him locked into lineups across the board.

Saquon Barkley, RB | PHI (at CIN)

My pick to lead the position in scoring the rest of the way had his way against his former employer last week (187 scrimmage yards and a touchdown), a day that could have been much bigger if not for a pair of Tush Pushes.

When things are going right for Barkley, it’s an amazing watch. He has a run of 55+ yards in three of his past five games, a home run-hitting ability that has guided him to not one, not two, not three, but four top-10 finishes at the position this season.

His featured role should allow him to dominate this week against a defense that, in seven weeks, has allowed eight running backs to score in double figures. Barkley has at least three red-zone touches in five of six games this season, putting him in a position to again be one of the most valuable assets in our game against the seventh-worst red-zone defense in the league.

Derrick Henry or Barkley for the rest of the season: Who ya got?

Tank Bigsby, RB | JAX (vs. GB)

Mr. Cartavious Bigsby has been nothing short of phenomenal this season. He’s scored multiple touchdowns in two of his past three games and has at least 90 rushing yards in three of his past four, a stretch that includes a pair of top-10 finishes at the position.

With Travis Etienne Jr. battling a hamstring injury, Bigsby projects as the leading ball carrier against a run defense that allows the third most yards per carry after contact to running backs this season. Joe Mixon hung 26.4 fantasy points on these Packers a week ago, the fifth time in seven weeks an RB has cleared 15 PPR points.

Jacksonville has one path to keep this game close. I’d have Bigsby ranked as a top-15 play if the game flow wasn’t a concern. However, even as a 4.5-point home underdog, he settles comfortably inside of my top 20.

Tony Pollard, RB | TEN (at DET)

Pollard has been a top 20 running back in the majority of Tennessee’s games this season, though I can’t help but feel he is on borrowed time. Due to a lack of respect for this passing game, 40.4% of his carries this season have come against loaded boxes, resulting in less than a foot gained per carry before contact.

That’s a dangerous line to walk, especially for a team that is a serious risk to be scripted out of their ground attack this week. That said, an Aidan Hutchinson-less version of this defense proved to have some holes in it last week (their second play was a 34-yard cutback touchdown by Aaron Jones), and that could be the case moving forward.

The Lions allow rushing scores to opposing running backs at the fourth-highest rate this season, a metric that keeps Pollard inside my top 20, even if I have lasting concerns. Tyjae Spears (hamstring) could return to action this week, but with just one game of more than eight touches, I’m not overreacting to the status of Tennessee’s RB2.

Travis Etienne Jr., RB | JAX (vs. GB)

It hasn’t been a fun first seven weeks if you ponied up for Etienne during the summer. Across most sites, his ADP landed in the top 10 at the position. Hopefully, the rest of your team has picked up the slack.

After flirting with 1,500 scrimmage yards last season and scoring 12 times, Etienne doesn’t have a finish better than RB20 this season, has seen his second-year backup thrive, and is now dealing with a soft tissue injury.

Awesome.

I’d love to tell you it gets better moving forward, but I’m not sure I believe it. Even if he proves healthy and wins his lead role back (two very big “ifs” at this point), are we sure that the RB1 in Jacksonville is going to matter by the time that happens?

• Week 12: BYE
• Week 13: vs. Houston Texans
• Week 14: at Tennessee Titans
• Week 15: vs. New York Jets
• Week 16: at Las Vegas Raiders
• Week 17: vs. Tennessee Titans

There are three touch matchups in there, and the one advantageous spot (Week 16) could come with your season on the line, asking you to trust a player you theoretically haven’t played for weeks. Heck, you can’t even catch the second Colts matchup, an obviously a good spot, until Week 18 when most leagues are done.

You’ll have to track Etienne’s hamstring throughout this week, but more for the value of Tank Bigbsy than anything. Etienne is firmly in the need-to-see-it-before-believing-it tier, along with about a dozen running backs that are putting our collective minds in a pretzel.

Trey Benson, RB | ARI (at MIA)

For a moment there, Benson looked like patient fantasy managers were going to be onto something. Across two games, he ran 14 times for 76 yards and showed some level of juice that we projected upon him when the Cardinals took him 66th overall in April.

Week 7, however, dashed any of those dreams. He ranked third in this backfield in snaps, and James Conner looked as fresh as he has all season. If you play in a league with deep benches, Benson remains a stash due to the checkered health history of Conner. But he’s more of a luxury than a mandatory roster filler right now as you try to position yourself for a playoff berth.

Trey Sermon, RB | IND (at HOU)

Sermon entered the season labeled as the proper Jonathan Taylor handcuff, and when the starter suffered a high ankle sprain, the fantasy community flocked to add the former Buckeye.

Three weeks into this experiment, it’s clear that the Colts and fantasy managers alike are moving on. Sermon is seeing his snap edge over Tyler Goodson evaporate (52.5% snap share last week), and for good reason:

Sermon’s production, Weeks 5-7:

• -33% production below expectation
• 0.3 yards per carry before contact
• 0.6 points per touch

Goodson’s production, Weeks 5-7:

• 5% production over expectation
• 2.2 yards per carry before contact
• 0.9 points per touch

Sermon has earned more than a single target just once this season, lacking the versatility it takes to return any sort of value in a committee situation.

Tyjae Spears, RB | TEN (at DET)

A healthy version of Spears would be interesting in a spot like this, as Tennessee is an 11.5-point underdog in Detroit, but we just can’t be confident in that. The second-round pick missed last week with a hamstring injury, which had some reporters close to the team wondering if the Tulane product would be placed on injured reserve.

He’s avoided that designation, but what motivation do the Titans have to extend his role? Tony Pollard averages three catches per game and has been used as a bellcow all season (over 15 carries in five of six games).

Spears is a talented player, but talent alone doesn’t pay the fantasy bills. He doesn’t have a consistent role, and this offense struggles to get into scoring position. The math simply doesn’t work out enough to put him on Flex radars.

Tyler Allgeier, RB | ATL (at TB)

Week 7 was the Bijan Robinson show (21-5 carry edge; 5-1 target edge), and I don’t see a reason for this offense to pivot off of that game plan.

That’s not to say that Allgeier hasn’t been impressive this season — he has. Despite just one game with double-digit carries, he has a rush of 15+ yards in four of seven games. The talent is there, and my trust in the offense is real, but there aren’t enough touches in this offense for him to hold stand-alone value with a healthy Robinson.

You’re keeping him rostered in all formats. Allgeier would be a strong RB2 if Robinson were to go down, and that’s the type of player you want to have access to as we turn the corner on the first half of the fantasy season with an eye on the playoffs.

Tyler Goodson, RB | IND (at HOU)

As previously mentioned, Goodson has earned the right to be the featured back in this offense when Jonathan Taylor is out. He scored his first career touchdown last week (seven-yard run) and, despite limited usage, has a run of 17+ yards in each of his past three games.

All signs are pointing in the right direction, but there are still plenty of risks we need to consider. Goodson didn’t see a target last week, and there isn’t much hope in that regard given Anthony Richardson’s limitations. In a perfect matchup, a Flex ranking would be possible, but with running backs as a whole producing 7.3% under fantasy expectations against the Texans this season, not to mention a negative game script, I’m not touching this backfield.

Tyrone Tracy Jr., RB | NYG (at PIT)

The rookie got New York’s first carry last week, but little can be gleaned from the blowout loss at the hands of the Eagles.

Breece Hall scored 26.1 PPR points on Sunday night in Pittsburgh, the first running back to reach 20 points against the Steelers this season. That said, they’ve allowed at least 17.5 PPR points to a running back in each of the past four weeks (in addition to Hall, Alexander Mattison, Rico Dowdle, and Jonathan Taylor all got there). The run defense might be a touch overrated, though that’s more noteworthy in future weeks than this one.

I like the idea of holding Tracy as I still think he leads this backfield down the stretch, but in a committee in an offense with an implied total of 15 points, there’s no way to feel good about plugging in Tracy this week.

Zach Charbonnet, RB | SEA (vs. BUF)

With Walker playing at an elite level, Zach Charbonnet’s role is trending in the wrong direction and has him labeled as nothing more than a handcuff. Don’t get me wrong, Charbonnet holds value in that regard, but there’s no more hope that he can hold value on his own.

Skeptics will question his upside even when extended (57 carries this season, and none have gained more than 13 yards), but the volume Charbonnet was given in those instances was enough to project him as a top-20 producer at the position.

As long as Walker is on the field, Charbonnet is on your bench. Easy.

Zack Moss, RB | CIN (vs. PHI)

This backfield is moving away from Moss. While he still needs to be rostered, that might not be the case for much longer. He hasn’t reached double-digit carries in three straight games (12+ in each of the previous three), and none of his 69 carries this season have gained more than 16 yards.

Moss’ snap shares vs. Chase Brown:

• Week 5 vs. Ravens: Moss holds a 67.7%-32.3% advantage
• Week 6 at Giants: Moss holds a 46.2%-61.5% disadvantage
• Week 7 at Browns: Moss holds a 49.1%-58.5% disadvantage

The Eagles have allowed just one RB rushing touchdown this season, taking away from Moss’ profile, which was thin to begin with.

Zamir White, RB | LV (vs. KC)

It was only last winter when White got a trial run as Vegas’ lead back and had us all buying in. None of us thought he was a league winner, but we saw the Raiders give White plenty of work, and their offseason moves suggested that they were plenty comfortable with him as “the guy” in 2024.

He didn’t last until Halloween.

White played just 13.3% of the snaps last week against the Rams, ranking behind both Alexander Mattison and Ameer Abdullah. White averages under four yards per carry during his 2.5 seasons in the NFL and has yet to showcase a versatile skill set. That means that opportunity count is his only path to matter for us and something that he is no longer earning.

Fantasy football is a never-ending game of chasing volume, so if you want to keep an eye on this backfield (or you’d like to check out this section weekly as I keep an eye on it for you), that’s fine. Neither Mattison nor Abdullah have impressive track records, so it wouldn’t surprise me if this situation was influx on a weekly basis. In above-average offenses, I’m willing to stash players in such a spot and hope.

This is not an above-average offense.

Week 8 WR Start-Sit Advice

A.J. Brown, WR | PHI (at CIN)

The Giants play the Eagles twice a year, yet they thought press coverage was the play against A.J. Brown on fourth down. As expected, Brown was dancing in the end zone 41 yards later, courtesy of a dime delivered by Hurts.

Brown has played three games this season, and he’s been a top-10 option in all of them (TD and a 40-yard catch in all of them). He put together six straight 125-yard performances during the first half of last season, proving that he is as capable as anyone of stringing together these massive performances.

Dallas Goedert was inactive last week, and DeVonta Smith was ineffective. The sheer number of weapons this offense has when at full strength, for me, keeps Brown off the board of receivers that have a shot to lead the position in scoring moving forward, but his weekly ceiling is as high as any receiver in the game.

Alec Pierce, WR | IND (at HOU)

In Week 1 against these Texans, Pierce turned three targets into 125 yards and a touchdown. He’s one of four receivers to have a 20-point game against the Texans this season (Brian Thomas Jr., DeMario Douglas, and Justin Jefferson being the others), though his general profile (13.3% on-field target share with just one end-zone target) doesn’t scream “sustainable.”

Anthony Richardson owns the lowest passer rating of qualified signal callers this season, and that makes a skill set like Pierce’s even more volatile. The Texans own the lowest opponent deep completion percentage (22.6%, barely half of the league average), and with them transitioning to a more run-heavy offense, there are various volume red flags.

Pierce is a more viable dart throw when Richardson is under center, but that doesn’t mean you swing for the fences with no teams on a bye. If you’re itching for upside, I’d rather take a chance on Gabe Davis in a better matchup with more projectable pass attempts.

Allen Lazard, WR | NYJ (at NE)

Lazard caught all four of his targets last week for 58 yards and might fill a decent role in this offense, but I don’t expect it to be fantasy-friendly. His value has largely been the result of his five touchdowns on the back of a 31.3% red-zone target rate, a role that I don’t think he has a prayer of sustaining with Davante Adams now in town.

If I’m going to roster a hit-or-miss receiver like this, I want more offensive upside than what the Jets have to offer. I’d take any Packers receiver moving forward over this former Packer or even a Noah Brown type that could work into a viable role when Jayden Daniels is active.

Amari Cooper, WR | BUF (at SEA)

Cooper put his first target as a Bill on the turf, but after that, he looked great in his Buffalo debut despite playing only one-third of the snaps.

Weeks 1-6:

• 30.1% under fantasy expectation
• 12.0 aDOT
• 22.8% on-field target share

Week 7:

• 97.6% over fantasy expectation
• 12.4 aDOT
• 41.7% on-field target share

Cooper appears to be the perfect fit and a top-12 fantasy receiver in the making as he develops an understanding of this playbook.

The Seahawks played a viable passing quarterback four times this season, and in all four of those games, a featured receiver cleared 18 PPR fantasy points (Drake London, Deebo Samuel Sr., Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Darius Slayton, when he was filling in for Malik Nabers).

Nothing I saw over the weekend has me thinking that Cooper can’t extend those struggles as his route participation increases and he remembers what it is like to play with a consistent quarterback.

Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR | DET (vs. TEN)

St. Brown was the recipient of a 35-yard dime from Jared Goff last week on his way to his fourth WR1 finish of the season. He’s now scored in four straight games and caught 25 of his 26 targets during that run, proving that this Lions team might be destined to do big things in 2024.

I could tell you that the Titans have allowed only four receivers to reach 13 fantasy points this season, but three of them came last week against the Bills (Amari Cooper, Keon Coleman, and Khalil Shakir all got there), meaning the form isn’t exactly there.

Given the efficiency of this offense, St. Brown is a real threat to lead the position in scoring this season. I’ll be interested to see how his role changes, if it does at all, with Jameson Williams off of the field for the next two weeks, though there is nothing actionable on that front. This offense is humming right now, and he’s at the center of it.

Andrei Iosivas, WR | CIN (vs. PHI)

Iosivas was a red-zone target vacuum early in the season with Tee Higgins sidelined, and he could fill that role again this weekend against the Eagles.

Cincinnati enters this game with an implied point total of 25, reflecting confidence in their ability to move the ball consistently. Philadelphia ranks above league average in opponent pass rate over expectation, an area where the Bengals, unsurprisingly, rank I. The top of the quarter when they have the ball.

Ja’Marr Chase will be heavily featured, but Iosivas’ combination of projectable volume and valuable looks makes him a reasonable Flex play should we get word that Higgins is officially sidelined.

Brandon Aiyuk, WR | SF (vs. DAL)

Aiyuk’s season came to an end last week with a torn ACL and MCL. With plenty of injuries happening over the past few weeks, I’m here to confirm that you don’t need to burn your IR slot on Aiyuk.

This injury impacts a number of parties (Aiyuk had a team-high 28% target share when these two teams met in Week 5 last season), and I’ll walk you through the values of Deebo Samuel Sr., Jauan Jennings, and George Kittle moving forward.

Brian Thomas Jr., WR | JAX (vs. GB)

Isn’t Thomas essentially doing what we hoped Marvin Harrison Jr. would do? He’s being used at all three levels and earning targets at an increasingly impressive rate. In Week 7, Thomas had a pair of six-point catches in the first half and has at least one such play in five of seven games.

The rookie now has three top-10 finishes over his past four games; based on that graphic, he can get even better. This Green Bay defense has been making big plays all season, though there is some risk/reward in their profile. On the flip side of the turnovers they’ve forced is the second-highest touchdown rate allowed on deep passes (13.2% of attempts).

Through seven weeks, seven times has a receiver scored over 15 PPR points against the Packers. Justin Jefferson and A.J. Brown are on that list, but so are Jordan Whittington and Alec Pierce, a range of players that tells me that it is more a result of how this defense functions than a result of talent mismatches.

Thomas has the upside of a top-10 receiver and the floor of a player ranked in the 30s — that equation is going to result in a WR2 ranking for me most weeks, and this matchup is no different.

Brian Thomas Jr. is the 1st player with 500+ rec yds on 30 or fewer receptions through 7 career games since Randy Moss in 1998pic.twitter.com/rFXfVQrnko

— Doug Clawson (@doug_clawson) October 20, 2024

Calvin Ridley, WR | TEN (at DET)

It’s TRIVIA TIME. Sound the alarms. Tell the children. Alert the authorities. It’s time to get fractionally smarter.

Question (answer within the DeAndre Hopkins write-up): How many players, entering Week 8, are averaging more receiving yards per game than Ridley and Hopkins combined?

The fact that I thought to ask such a question tells you all you need to know about this offense. Ridley was banged up early last week and still has just one top-40 finish (Week 2) on his 2024 ledger.

Woof.

The Lions have given up plenty of receiver points this season. They’ve also faced some of the brightest stars in the game (Cooper Kupp, Justin Jefferson, and CeeDee Lamb to name a few).

Ridley isn’t the player we remember from his Jacksonville days, and with Detroit blitzing at the seventh-highest rate this season, you’re asking a lot for whoever is under center in Tennessee to support any receiver.

Target volume wasn’t the issue for Ridley, so Hopkins taking his talents to Kansas City doesn’t shift my position on the state of Tennessee’s offense. Ridley’s targets are empty calories, and that’s not going to change.

CeeDee Lamb, WR | DAL (at SF)

You’re starting Lamb. There is no question that needs to be asked on that front this week, next week, or potentially for any of the four seasons remaining on his contract.

That said, I wanted you to feel heard. Lamb only has one finish better than WR15 this season (Week 4 at NYG: 7-98-1) and is producing 5.2% below expectations. That’s not what you paid for this season (2023: career-best 22.5% over expectation), and some inconsistencies from Dak Prescott have proven prohibitive in terms of ceiling weeks.

Lamb’s aDOT continues to inch down (9.7 this season, we’ve seen a drop-off of over 3.5% annually for three straight seasons), but what’s more concerning is an on-field target share that is down from 29% last season to 25%.

You don’t have to feel bad about expecting more from your WR1, and while I think Lamb will be fine, this doesn’t look like a matchup for him to give you the dominating stat line that you yearn for.

Through seven weeks, it hasn’t been the WR1s who have given the 49ers the most problems. Allen Lazard (26.9 points) outscored Garrett Wilson (12.0) in Week 1, Michael Wilson (12.8) was better than Marvin Harrison Jr. (5.6) in Week 5, and in Week 6, Tyler Lockett (16.5) more than doubled the production of DK Metcalf.

Hold tight, and don’t do anything rash. Even if your team is struggling, I’d rather bet on Lamb bouncing back than sell him at a discount.

• Week 12 at Commanders
• Week 13 vs. Giants
• Week 14 vs. Bengals
• Week 15 at Panthers

If you can survive the next month and stay in contention, I think it’s likely that you will leave 2024 with positive feelings toward Lamb — even if the start of 2024 hasn’t gone as scripted.

Chris Godwin, WR | TB (vs. ATL)

• Through seven weeks, Godwin has five top-24 finishes — more than Ja’Marr Chase.
• Through seven weeks, Godwin has three top-10 finishes — more than Justin Jefferson.
• Through seven weeks, Godwin has produced 28.1% above expectation — higher than Amon-Ra St. Brown.

Simply put, Godwin was pacing for a career year in his eighth NFL season and carrying fantasy teams along for the ride. Those dreams are now a thing of the past, and managers will need to pivot until next year when we all hope that Godwin returns to this elite form and we can again enjoy watching him put defenders on skates.

Godwin led the Buccaneers in receiving yards in the Week 5 loss against these Falcons, thanks to his success out of the slot, a role that will be filled by a few players (Sterling Shepard being my favorite in terms of fantasy value).

The injury bug has been out in full force of late, but you can’t mourn what your team could have been. You have to adjust on the fly and do your best to cover up the gaping hole left on your roster.

Yes, a waiver wire move will help, but this isn’t about finding a 1-for-1 replacement; that isn’t going to happen. You have to reevaluate your team and adjust your lineup-setting mindset accordingly.

1. Is your team deep enough to absorb this injury?
2. Do you need to make a trade?
3. Do you need to take more weekly risks to keep up in matchups?

I can’t answer those questions for you, but this is the reason we have bench spots and why we encourage you to constantly look for ways to improve your roster. Godwin’s injury is an impactful one, but it doesn’t have to tank your season.

Chris Olave, WR | NO (at LAC)

After exiting Week 6 with a concussion, it wasn’t a surprise that Olave, who has now missed time in all three of his professional seasons, sat out Thursday night’s loss to Denver. New Orleans’ WR1 had a nice stretch of production (WR12 in Weeks 2-4) bookended by a pair of finishes outside of the top 75 at the position, making him a frustrating player for fantasy managers who drafted him with dreams of consistency this summer.

We learned last week that Rashid Shaheed’s (knee) season is over, and while that might initially increase the optimism moving forward for Olave managers, I’d be careful.

In two of Olave’s three viable games this season, Shaheed earned a target on 28.8% of his routes, catching 12 of 15 passes for 179 yards in the process. Shaheed had established himself as a legitimate WR2 in the NFL, and with the league respecting his development, Olave was in a position to thrive (in those two highlighted games, he averaged 3.43 yards per route and saw a 32.7% target share).

Shaheed’s growth was additive to Olave’s profile. now that we are without it, I fear that Olave’s path to returning value on his ADP is cloudy at best.

You’ll need to keep tabs on his progression through concussion protocol this week, but one week is reasonably standard in terms of time missed, making me comfortable slotting Olave into lineups and pivoting if need be.

This is a tough matchup in what profiles as a low-possession game, no matter who is under center for the Saints. I think the production floor is still reasonable, but the ceiling doesn’t project as friendly as it did a few weeks ago, and that’s enough to keep Olave out of my DFS player pool.

Christian Kirk, WR | JAX (vs. GB)

We entered this season with reasonable expectations for the Jaguars. Trevor Lawrence has been up-and-down throughout his NFL career up to this point, but at the very least, we thought we knew what to expect from their pass-catching corps: Brian Thomas Jr. and Gabe Davis were going to be the big-play threats who lacked consistency, while Kirk and Evan Engram offered weekly stability at the cost of a ceiling like what those two have access to.

As it turns out, we had it completely backward when it came to Thomas and Kirk. While the rookie has been a sensation, Kirk has been something of a random number generator.

He has a pair of WR2 finishes, commanding 22 targets across those games. But he also has four weeks where he hasn’t been a top-50 receiver, three of which saw him catch just a single pass (one catch on three targets for 24 yards against the Patriots last weekend in London).

As expected, he’s the full-time slot man in this offense (77.8%), and Lawrence has lacked consistency in calling upon that role. My hope is that better (or at least more consistent) days are ahead, but I’m not so sure it starts this week against a Packers defense that ranks eighth or better in yards per attempt, touchdown rate, and passer rating when opponents throw to the slot against them.

Jauan Jennings and Jalen McMillan are two receivers who saw their projected usage spike over the past seven days due to injuries ahead of them. If you need a reference point, I’d play both of them over Kirk this week.

Christian Watson, WR | GB (at JAX)

I was optimistic about the short-term outlook for Watson this time last week when we got word that a shoulder injury had Dontayvion Wicks labeled as “week-to-week,” but apparently time works differently in Green Bay.

Not only did Wicks suit up, he was second in targets and receiving yards during the win over Houston, earning three times as many looks as Watson. I don’t think that’s sticky, but that’s the problem in this offense — nothing is sticky.

That’s great for the long-term outlook of the Packers, but it’s prohibitive in our circles, as no one on this explosive offense is a sure thing (WR1 Jayden Reed finished fifth on the team in receiving yards last week). The sheer presence of Wicks makes Watson nothing more than a DFS punt play, and even then, I’m not going to have exposure this weekend.

Jacksonville has allowed 12 receivers to reach double-digit PPR points, but only two of them had an aDOT north of 12 yards. Watson has yet to prove capable of winning with volume, making you reliant on a big play that is less likely to come in this spot than others. I don’t want to say it, but is he any different than Gabe Davis?

Cooper Kupp, WR | LAR (vs. MIN)

The hope is that the return is coming soon, but Kupp was ultimately inactive (ankle) last week, a decision that came down to Sunday. The All-Pro should be penciled into fantasy starting lineups this week, as the Thursday night kickoff gives him the benefit of a mini-bye heading into Week 9 (at Seattle) to make sure his body reacts as expected.

It should go without saying that Kupp is a starter for you the second the Rams activate him. Even if there is a discussion of a snap count, his value for Los Angeles increases the closer they get to paydirt, making him a good bet to see snaps when fantasy points are imminent.

The Vikings have allowed opposing WR1s to catch a touchdown pass in three straight games (Jayden Reed, Garrett Wilson, and Amon-Ra St. Brown last week), and with Puka Nacua still a ways away from returning, Kupp is the unquestioned top threat in LA’s passing game and could threaten to be the weekly leader in targets.

Courtland Sutton, WR | DEN (vs. CAR)

Man do I feel bad for the super casual fantasy player. That person went to bed without too much concern about their fantasy team, saw that the Broncos scored 33 points on Thursday when they woke up on Friday and remembered that they have Sutton on their fantasy team.

As they were trying to open up their fantasy app, I’m sure thoughts like, “I hope I had him in,” or, “I hope my opponent didn’t have him,” ran through their mind. They were unable to name any other Broncos receiver and assumed that, in 2024, scoring 33 points means a strong day through the air.

I feel for those people.

Sutton was on the field for 86.9% of Denver’s offensive snaps in the blowout win, and let’s just say he’s lucky to be getting paid by the games played total and not the production.

The man didn’t see a target. Not one. With the Saints’ secondary losing players left and right, all 15 WR targets went to Marvin Mims Jr., Devaughn Vele, Troy Franklin, or Lil’Jordan Humphrey. In August, if I gave you that list of names and told you they were either the jazz quartet playing at happy hour on Wednesday nights or the Broncos target earners, would you have answered correctly?

Sutton entered the week having scored in two of three games, but none of the underlying numbers paint an optimistic picture when you take a step back. This offense doesn’t attack vertically (the one-time feared downfield threat doesn’t have a 30-yard catch this season), and his on-field target share, despite Jerry Jeudy’s offseason departure, hasn’t budged. He has four times as many finishes this season outside of the top 50 as he does inside the top 24, making him more risk than reward until proven otherwise (-25.5% fantasy points compared to expectations this season).

Without any teams on a bye, I’m not tempted to put Sutton into starting lineups this week. I don’t think I’d sell him low or anything like that right now with the Panthers this week and the pass-funnel Ravens next, but he’s nothing more than lineup depth at this point.

Curtis Samuel, WR | BUF (at SEA)

The narrative this offseason was that Samuel could rediscover his previous form with Joe Brady, but that simply hasn’t come to fruition. The veteran receiver has played 40% of Buffalo’s offensive snaps just once this season, and even when he’s on the field, he’s been far from productive (33.6% below fantasy expectations based on where his targets come on the field).

With Amari Cooper’s usage likely to trend up, Keon Coleman beginning to pay off some of his pedigree, and Khalil Shakir continuing to be the most efficient on planet Earth, Samuel’s piece of the Buffalo pie is borderline non-existent.

You may be stuck at the receiver position due to the rash of injuries across the league – you can do better than Samuel. I’d rather roll the dice on the size/matchup profile for Cedric Tillman or get a piece of the completion machine that is Jared Goff by way of Tim Patrick or Kalif Raymond with Jameson Williams suspended.

Darius Slayton, WR | NYG (at PIT)

We’ve seen a handful of receiver handcuffs emerge throughout this season, and Slayton is firmly on that usage plan. Impactful backups don’t always occur at the WR position (i.e. the Texans post-Nico Collins landing on IR), but Slayton has proven himself as the logical plug-and-play option in the absence of Malik Nabers.

• Weeks 1-4 (with Nabers active): 10 catches on 15 targets
• Weeks 5-6 (with Nabers inactive): 14 catches on 22 targets

With the outstanding rookie back in the fold for Week 7 against the Eagles, Slayton garnered just three targets, netting one catch for 11 yards.

At the end of the day, every one of these situations is unique. Due to the struggles of this offense as a whole and no reason to label Nabers as vulnerable to another injury (head injuries are obviously to be taken seriously, but he’s not at risk of a flair-up the same way a player coming off of an ankle sprain would be), I’m fine with cutting ties with Slayton in a roster crunch.

I’d rather try to catch lightning in a bottle with the Patriots or Browns in terms of quarterback changes or go to Tampa Bay with their rash of WR injuries.

Darnell Mooney, WR | ATL (at TB)

Mooney put together a strong stat line in Week 5 against these Bucs (9-105-2), and it could have been far better if not for a bad drop that looked like it was going to cost Atlanta the game. Cousins was throwing the ball all over the yard that night, and 29.6% of his targets went in Mooney’s direction; the matchup data alone gives him Flex appeal in the rematch.

I haven’t loved what I’ve seen from Mooney over the past two weeks (his yards per route are down 27.9% from the first five weeks), but he’s been on the field for over 87% of Atlanta’s offensive snaps and remains consistently involved.

The Bucs blitz at the third-highest rate in the league, and we’ve seen enough creativity from this offense to think that they can exploit that aggression. Mooney is a fringe top-30 receiver for me with a nice ceiling to complement a reasonable floor in this spot.

Davante Adams, WR | NYJ (at NE)

Adams was targeted on his first route run as a Jet (incomplete), but his reunion with Aaron Rodgers was awfully underwhelming.

Adams’ production, Weeks 1-3:

• 1.66 yards/route
• 10.5 aDOT
• 21.4% on field target%
• 26% slot

Adams’ production, Week 7:

• 0.77 yards /route
• 7.6 aDOT
• 23.1% on-field target share
• 50.9% slot

Expecting this connection to pick up where it left off was never reasonable, and last week proved as much. Could a full week of practice make the difference?

It’s at least possible and enough hope for me to keep him in lineups across the board.

“The Patriots aim to take away your top option.” We’ve heard that narrative for as long as I can remember, but with Bill Belichick on TV sets across America, New England is struggling to do that.

When they played the Bengals in Week 1, Ja’Marr Chase was the most productive receiver. What about the Seahawks in Week 2? DK Metcalf. And these Jets in Week 3? Garrett Wilson. You get the idea. In six of seven games, the receiver you’d expect the opponent to be most interested in getting the ball to has led the WR room in PPR fantasy points.

Adams is my WR15 this week, ranking in the Tee Higgins, Stefon Diggs, and Amari Cooper range at the position.

DeAndre Hopkins, WR | KC (at LV)

We don’t know if Hopkins will be in the fold this week. Even if he is, we saw Amari Cooper operate in a very limited fashion last week following a deal, so sitting on your Hopkins stock is the percentage play for this week.

But moving forward? Buckle up!

Since joining the Titans, Hopkins ranks 43rd of 55 qualifiers in terms of fantasy efficiency on deep passes. You could write that off to a receiver being on the wrong side of 30 years old, but with Ridley ranking 46th on that list, it’s more likely that the struggles downfield are the result of Tennessee’s offensive environment more than anything.

For reference, Hopkins ranked 25th of 89 qualifiers during this three seasons with the Cardinals despite battling various injuries.

Mahomes is completing a career-high 53.6% of his deep passes, making this an advantageous spot for a receiver who might have more gas left in the tank than his current stat line suggests. There’s some concern with Mahomes averaging just 4.7 deep pass attempts per game (pacing for a career low with ease, career average: 7.3 such attempts).

This trade could represent an end to our efforts to try to start Xavier Worthy. The rookie burner has seen 31% of his targets (and 65.7% of his production as a pass catcher) this season come deep downfield. The Chiefs still have five games remaining against top-10 defenses in terms of passer rating allowed deep downfield, making the supporting of two splash-play threats a tall ask for a team that isn’t as open as it has been in year’s past.

Hopkins could get rolling over the next two months, but managers need to be aware that two of those tough matchups downfield come in Weeks 16-17 (the Texans and Steelers rank third and sixth, respectively, against long passes through seven weeks).

TRIVIA answer (from Ridley’s section): 25

Deebo Samuel Sr., WR | SF (vs. DAL)

News broke leading up to kickoff last week that Samuel was dealing with an illness, but that was all that was reported. After playing three snaps, it was clear that he wasn’t right, as he was seen struggling to breathe on the sidelines.

Following the game, he was in the hospital with pneumonia, and his status is very much in question. Due to the optics of last week, I find it likely that he won’t be rushed back into the fold, a net positive for his fantasy stock as another start-but-hardly-play instance is less likely to occur.

For the time being, I’m counting on not having Samuel at my disposal this week. His value for the rest of the season in a Brandon Aiyuk-less offense is an interesting case study when he is deemed healthy.

Aiyuk (46.9%) is easily the team leader in target rate on the perimeter. With him out for the season, this pass game figures to revolve around Samuel and George Kittle: it’ll be the receiver who assumes that usage. This season, Samuel has been targeted on 38.9% of his perimeter routes, while Kittle’s rate sits at a predictably low 2.5%.

Samuel projects favorably moving forward, though this is a serious medical condition that needs to be monitored. (Editor’s Note: Samuel was released from the hospital on Tuesday, October 22).

DeMario Douglas, WR | NE (vs. NYJ)

An illness wiped out nearly the entire second half for Douglas on Sunday, robbing us of the ability to learn about the target hierarchy of this Drake Maye-led offense. The possession receiver was featured in Maye’s debut (6-92-1), but I’m going to need more than a few productive quarters before penciling in a receiver with the skill set of Douglas under a rookie signal-caller.

For the moment, I’d rather roll the dice on high-upside receivers in offenses I trust (Dontayvion Wicks or Keon Coleman for example) over a player like Douglas. That could flip with time if Maye continues to show promise, just not yet.

Devaughn Vele, WR | DEN (vs. CAR)

The 6’5” rookie out of Utah had an early 20-yard grab on Thursday night, and that was it for the entire game. There is a process that lands you on Vele, and that is why I’m mentioning him in this space: 83.1% of his routes over the past two weeks have come from the slot, and with his size profile, that creates matchup problems that could be exploited reasonably given the conservative nature of this offense (Week 7 vs. Chargers: 78 yards on six targets).

It looks like he is part of a receiver-by-committee situation that is going to have him on the field for about half of the snaps, and that’s not enough to hold my interest in redraft formats. That said, what about a cheap DFS punt play when this team projects to be playing from behind against a defense that is vulnerable to slot production? Then, you might be onto something. Consider this me planting the seed — Denver is going to be a big underdog in Weeks 9-10 in Baltimore and Kansas City, two secondaries that have had their fair share of issues with the slot.

There are a million ways to beat Carolina, making me less inclined to roll the dice on this ultra-specific play in Week 8 — but save these notes. There’s a daily case to be made as we work our way into November.

DeVonta Smith, WR | PHI (at CIN)

Smith sunk your roster last week (-2 yards), but this isn’t the first time we’ve seen the production lag from Philadelphia’s WR2. In the first half of last season, he had three straight sub-50-yard performances, and that season worked out just fine.

Patience is important, though context is, too. Smith isn’t just struggling to produce, he’s struggling to earn opportunities altogether.

Smith’s target shares, 2024:

• Week 2: 28.6%
• Week 3: 27.8%
• Week 4: 15.4%
• Week 5: 9.5%

Smith missed a game in the middle of that data set and has been unable to regain his traction as a weekly fantasy asset. Could this be a get-right spot?

I think so. I hope so. If he can’t get the job done against a defense that has allowed six receivers to clear 18 PPR points this season, he’s going to fall outside of my WR2 tier.

Diontae Johnson, WR | CAR (at DEN)

The initial energy that Andy Dalton inserted into this offense was fun, but the magic seems to have died, and Johnson’s fantasy stock is tanking as a result. He hasn’t been a top-55 receiver in two of three games this month, his stumbles appear unlikely to steady this week against a Broncos defense that allows the fourth-fewest yards per slot completion this season.

Patrick Surtain II (concussion) could return to the field this week, and while he wouldn’t project as a Johnson shadow, he would handle the perimeter snaps. That would knock out one path to viability.

The volume of Johnson is no longer something I trust, and with just 20.3% of Panthers drives crossing the opponents’ 20-yard line (third lowest), you really have to squint to see a profile that matters in anything but the deepest of leagues.

DJ Moore, WR | CHI (at WAS)

The arrow is pointing straight up for Moore, and while I don’t think he’s in a position to repeat his career year from 2023 (96-1,364-8), he’s deserving to be locked into lineups across the board for the remainder of the season as long as we don’t see significant regression from Caleb Williams.

After some tinkering early on, it seems that the Bears are trending in a very specific role direction for Moore:

Moore’s slot usage rates, 2024:

• Week 3 at Colts: 2.5% of routes
• Week 4 vs. Rams: 14.3% of routes
• Week 5 vs. Panthers: 18% of routes
• Week 6 vs. Jaguars: 31.4% of routes

He’s caught eight of 10 slot targets (with a touchdown) this season, and the veteran provides Williams with a security blanket that he clearly trusts. I think you can pencil in 5-7 catches consistently moving forward, with a 20+ point ceiling when matchups like this present themselves.

I’m 0% worried about the six-point effort you got from Moore in Week 6.

DK Metcalf, WR | SEA (vs. BUF)

Metcalf is considered “week-to-week” with a Grade 1 MCL sprain. While we’ve seen some “week-to-week” tabs mislead us this season, I’m currently placing Seattle’s WR1 on my bench and reacting if need be as opposed to the other way around.

The Seahawks rank fourth in red-zone pass rate this season, a style of offense that will keep Metcalf inside of my top 10 whenever he is active. That said, this is a brutal matchup, so maybe a week or two off (Seattle goes on bye in Week 10) isn’t the worst thing.

Allen Lazard and Garrett Wilson both scored over 23 fantasy points against the Bills in Week 6 — they are the only receivers to reach 16 points against Buffalo this season. If Metcalf were to play, my ranking of Jaxon Smith-Njigba would adjust down a handful of spots. But with that currently looking unlikely, the team’s slot option is the only pass catcher on this offense I have an interest in.

Dontayvion Wicks, WR | GB (at JAX)

This time last week, Wicks was labeled as “week-to-week” with a shoulder injury, but come Sunday, he was producing against the Texans (3-48-1). The 30-yard touchdown was the result of Jordan Love’s savvy, as he quick-snapped Houston as they were trying to decide if they were going to challenge the play prior. That is exactly why we preach getting exposure to these productive NFL offenses.

If we are to believe that he is fully healthy, Wicks’ sleeper profile could pay off in a major way during the second half of the season. Jayden Reed is the WR1 on this offense, but the WR2 role is up for grabs. Wicks might be the favorite given that he has been targeted on over 28% of his routes in four consecutive games.

He’s something of a one-trick pony (14.7 aDOT for the season with a weekly aDOT over 14.0 yards in five straight), something that will limit his projectable consistency. That said, he could well be the perfect pony for this matchup with the Jaguars allowing a league-high 17.4 yards per deep pass this season.

He’s a viable Flex play this weekend (I have him ranked in the same tier as Jauan Jennings, Jalen McMillan, and Tank Dell) and likely has the best moments of his 2024 season yet to come.

Drake London, WR | ATL (at TB)

London’s first target last week came with seven minutes remaining in the first half (12-yard reception), but he ended up getting there against the Seahawks (6-63-1). That’s as good an example of how different this offense is than it was a year ago.

Kirk Cousins has made a concentrated effort to keep his WR1 engaged, and it’s working to the tune of three straight top-15 finishes at the position (five top-20s in his past six games). London lit up these Buccaneers in the Week 5 win (12-154-1), and I have zero reservations in labeling him as a top-10 play for the rematch.

Gabe Davis, WR | JAX (vs. GB)

If you chased the Week 6 Davis stat line (5-45-2 against the Bears, fantasy’s WR7 for the week) into Week 7 against the Patriots, you got exactly what you deserved.

One catch. 13 yards.

For the uninitiated, welcome to the Davis experience. This is what he does and exactly why drafting him with expectations above that of an emergency option is foolish. He’s a talented receiver, but this team has three pass catchers and ranks 24th in time of possession, an offense that isn’t in a position to support a sporadic receiver like Davis.

Week 7 was the third time in four games in which he failed to clear five targets. He’s been held under 50 yards in each of his past five contests. Against an optimistic Packers defense, Davis could break a long play, but by no means does that make starting him a responsible decision. Give me the receivers in Detroit or Tampa Bay that offer less upside but are being introduced to increased roles this weekend.

Garrett Wilson, WR | NYJ (at NE)

Wilson took a little bit of a backseat in the debut of Davante Adams, but not to such a degree that he should be sat down on fantasy benches.

Weeks 1-6:

• 27.3% on-field target share
• 26.5% slot usage
• 94.1 air yards

Week 7:

• 22.5% on-field target share
• 28.3% slot usage
• 94.0 air yards

Speculation was swirling last week about a potential Wilson trade (my thoughts here: I don’t think it’s likely, but I don’t think it’s a dead thought). However, he earned nine targets against the Steelers and looked fine as the WR2 in this offense.

The ceiling he has in this role isn’t near what he had pre-Adams, but it wouldn’t shock me if Wilson’s efficiency moving forward covers the loss of volume. We need Aaron Rodgers to rediscover his form. If that happens, Wilson will be a weekly WR2 that you can feel good about. We clearly aren’t there yet, but a matchup against the fourth-worst defense in terms of pressure rate could help him turn a corner.

I’m cautiously optimistic about Wilson’s stock, more so today than I was when the Adams trade occurred.

George Pickens, WR | PIT (vs. NYG)

Did we just become best friends?!?

Pittsburgh made the move from Justin Fields to Russell Wilson last week (news that Pickens unintentionally broke on Friday), and while it wasn’t a flawless season debut, Wilson endeared himself to fantasy managers in a major way by simply putting Pickens in position to make plays. Fields was fine, but Pickens’ ceiling was never going to be explored the way it was in Wilson’s first start.

Pickens’ profile:

• Week 5 vs Cowboys: 50.3% under fantasy expectation, zero end-zone targets
• Week 6 at Raiders: 44.8% under fantasy expectation, one end-zone target
• Week 7 vs. Jets: 18.5% over fantasy expectation, three end-zone targets

Pickens’ touchdown last week was a perfect 11-yard fade at the end of the first half, a play that was something you’d expect from an experienced tandem, not one sharing a field for the first time.

The Giants’ pass defense isn’t a strength, but we have seen them shut down two WR1s in Terry McLaurin and DK Metcalf (15.7 PPR points in total, totaling just 77 yards on 15 targets) this season. They allowed big games to Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, and A.J. Brown last week — this isn’t a shutdown defense by any means, but blindly assuming greatness is risky.

That said, I saw enough last week to start Pickens in most situations. The Giants have allowed the highest deep completion percentage this season (60.7%), and that has me favoring Pittsburgh’s clear WR1 over other downfield options like Xavier Worthy or Darnell Mooney this weekend.

Jake Bobo, WR | SEA (vs. BUF)

No, this isn’t a made-up name, and yes, he has a chance to matter in deeper formats should DK Metcalf miss time with his MCL sprain. Why? This is a pass-happy offense, and Metcalf himself has praised Bobo in the past when it comes to his route running being “more detailed than I will ever be.”

Of course, most people on planet Earth need to be more detail-oriented than Metcalf because few have access to the athletic tools that he does. But the praise is encouraging all the same.

Bobo starred at UCLA in his final collegiate season before the Seahawks picked him up as an unrestricted free agent following the 2023 NFL Draft. His opportunities have been few and far between (27 catches in 24 career appearances), though he has produced in both preseasons he’s been a part of and could step into Metcalf’s perimeter role in the short term.

In theory, I like that role in the top passing offense in terms of yardage in the league, but this landing spot is nothing short of brutal. The Bills have allowed the sixth-fewest yards per deep pass attempt this season and own the lowest opponent passer rating when targeted on the perimeter.

Let me put that another way. When teams throw outside against Buffalo, they have a 51.8 passer rating, a figure that is 8.2 points lower than Anthony Richardson’s 2024 passer rating, the lowest of all qualifiers.

Smith’s completion percentage downfield is pacing for a career low this season, and with 7.3% of his deep passes being intercepted, a conservative game plan is to be expected if Metcalf is sidelined.

Get your exposure to Bobo in DFS formats if you’d like. I’m not going in that direction in season-long play, but he’s a name to have on your radar.

Jakobi Meyers, WR | LV (vs. KC)

Meyers missed just four games from 2021-23, but a nagging ankle injury has now cost him consecutive games. Given how the game is geared in 2024, you’d think that any player who profiles as the clear WR1 on his team would project as a reasonable Flex option, but are we sure that’s the case on this Raiders offense?

Davante Adams averaged 9.0 targets per game for the team while Meyers, for his career, averages 16.6 PPR PPG when seeing at least nine looks. The role isn’t the problem — his quarterback and the matchup are. I can’t imagine I have to statistic you to death on the limitations of Aidan O’Connell, and sharing the fact that this Chiefs defense has locked down far more established WR1s (Ja’Marr Chase and Chris Olave combined for 10.5 PPR points against them in their games, turning 78 routes into just nine targets) feels like overkill.

I like Meyers as a player, but asking him to make chicken salad out of … well, you get the idea. It’s asking a lot.

Jalen McMillan, WR | TB (vs. ATL)

Few things prevent Mike Evans from catching touchdown passes, but it would appear that the current state of his right hamstring is one of them. On Monday night, he dropped a 24-yard touchdown pass. While drops happen to everyone, he appeared to grab for his hamstring before the ball even hit the ground.

Whether or not he misses time will impact McMillan’s target profile, but with Chris Godwin on the shelf, the playing time appears to be locked in for the third-round rookie.

McMillan was drafted by the Bucs with the idea of him playing Robin to Evans’ Batman on the perimeter with Godwin soaking up the slot usage. That’s how he’s been used this season, albeit on very limited reps.

Percentage of targets coming on the perimeter:

• Evans: 64.4%
• McMillan: 60%
• Godwin: 30.6%
• Otton: 2.4%

This role has increased in value given the rash of injuries in Tampa Bay. He has a decent runway in Week 8 against a Falcons defense that ranks bottom five in the league in terms of defending the perimeter in passer rating, completion percentage, and touchdown rate.

The Bucs will look different this week than they have through the first seven, and that likely comes with it a new playbook. But McMillan is my favorite of the secondary options in this offense, and he’s a viable Flex play in most leagues, though it could be tough sledding after this week with the Chiefs and the 49ers up next before a Week 11 bye.

Jalen Tolbert, WR | DAL (at SF)

Maybe I’m crazy, but I’ve scooped up plenty of Tolbert shares over the first seven weeks of the season, and I’m happy to have him stashed. Dallas’ WR2 has played over 89% of the offensive snaps in consecutive games for a team that, under Dak Prescott, routinely ranks in the top 10 in pass rate over expectation. That role alone should be rostered.

Don’t believe me? While Brandin Cooks posted the lowest yards per route rate of his career in 2023, he was a top-24 receiver on six occasions. Tolbert has that role all to himself, and while the 25-year-old still has to refine his game, I don’t think there’s much of a counter to the claim that he could match a success rate at that level moving forward.

I don’t think he’ll be the most consistent of options, but that doesn’t mean you outright neglect him After highlighting how secondary receivers have been the ones producing against San Francisco, he makes for an interesting DFS piece this week. Tolbert has cleared 100 air yards in three of his past five games — this is a profile I want on my bench, understanding that he offers weekly potential whenever I need it with his bye week now behind him.

Ja’Lynn Polk, WR | NE (vs. NYJ)

A head injury resulted in a departure from Week 7’s loss to the Jaguars, but with just one catch on seven targets across Drake Maye’s two starts, you shouldn’t feel obligated to hang onto Polk at this point.

That’s not to say you completely write him off as an asset down the stretch of this season. After all, he’s still a second-round pick and part of this rebuilding team’s future. But we’ve entered the zone where you can pounce if you see glimpses, as opposed to burning a valuable roster spot.

Even if you’re a Polk truther, these next three weeks (Jets, Titans, and Bears) aren’t user-friendly matchups. You can cut ties now and likely get back in for free as we approach the middle of November at no real cost.

Ja’Marr Chase, WR | CIN (vs. PHI)

You can’t stop Chase, you can only hope to contain him.

Okay, so that might be a little strong, but things are trending in that direction.

Remove a weird game against the Panthers, and Chase has an 85.7% catch rate this season, adding stability to a profile that comes with big-play potential (two 60+ yard receptions over the past month) and scoring equity that is on par with any receiver in the game (six scores over his past five games).

If there is a profile to slow Chase, it could be the low-blitz, high-pressure stylings of the Eagles that allow the seventh-most yards per carry to opposing running backs. That said, if you’re lowering Chase in your ranks, it’s from WR2 to WR6 — not a meaningful move in season-long formats where you’re locking him in without a second thought.

The back-shoulder touchdown last week simply looked too easy. When Joe Burrow is healthy and in form, defenses are essentially helpless. And with the projected total for this game sitting at 47.5, there should be fireworks for Chase to be a part of.

Jameson Williams, WR | DET (vs. TEN)

News broke on Monday night that Williams is facing a two-game suspension for violating the NFL’s Performance-Enhancing Substances policy, a penalty he will accept and begin serving this weekend. With Williams coming off a negative-four-yard performance in Minnesota, fantasy managers are in a difficult spot. The down week doesn’t worry as much as the fact that the burner was able to earn only a single target in the Week 7 victory.

Jared Goff is on a borderline historic run of efficiency (three straight games with a passer rating of 140+). While that is a net positive for all members of this offense, it also results in low play volume, thus making weeks like this possible. I call it 49er-itis.

Williams earned 20 targets in the first two weeks this season and has just 10 on his ledger since. On the bright side, the Lions know where their bread is buttered. Their run game is feared, and they pull it out of their RBs’ stomachs to pass at the fourth-highest rate (18.2% of dropbacks), a style of play-calling that allows Williams to work downfield.

I was hopeful that we’d get something of a target-yearning breakout this season, but those hopes are fading. Williams owns plenty of upside any time he touches a field. With Goff playing at an MVP level, he has access to a WR1 week, but the usage concerns have him checking in as a Flex play for me more than a lineup lock.

He’s a firm hold. Having him burn you last week and not be active for the next two is obviously less than ideal, but his role isn’t at risk. With a healthy version of him coming back for the second half of the fantasy season, there is plenty of time for him to make an impact on your season.

Jauan Jennings, WR | SF (vs. DAL)

Jennings entered this season viewed as the rare receiver handcuff; with Brandon Aiyuk done for the season, he steps into a weekly Flex-worthy role that could be expanded even further should Deebo Samuel Sr. (pneumonia) be ruled out.

A back injury cost him last week, but Kyle Shanahan indicated following the loss to Kansas City that the hope is to have him active. That would certainly be a welcomed sight for an offense that saw pass catchers drop like flies in Week 7.

Jennings has eight career games with more than five targets, and he’s produced over expectation in seven of them, a sample size that is highlighted by his Week 3 explosion in Los Angeles against the Rams (11 catches on 12 targets for 175 yards and three touchdowns).

Of course, we aren’t expecting that level of production this week, but he’s flirting with a top-30 status for me against a Dallas defense that is at less than full strength. The 49ers operate at the third slowest pace in the league and the Cowboys are the fastest — that tells me that this could be a high-time-of-possession game for the home team, and that gives Jennings a good chance to turn a profit for savvy fantasy managers.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR | SEA (vs. BUF)

It’s rarely a good sign when the clear highlight of a receiver’s day was a pass he threw, not one he caught, but that was the case for Seattle’s second-year receiver in Week 7. On a trick play, Jaxon Smith-Njigba threw something of a prayer to DK Metcalf, and it was answered for a 35-yard gain.

Outside of that, we saw JSN get his hands on the ball just three times on six targets, totaling nine yards.

Gross.

Like everyone else, I was underwhelmed by what we saw from Smith-Njigba on Sunday in a 34-point effort from the Seahawks, but I’m not holding it against him. Do you want to know why? It was never a good spot. I penned this in our betting content ahead of the dud.

“Hoodwinked. Bamboozled. Led astray.”

Any old-timey words that I’m missing? That’s how I felt after getting excited about JSN giving us a 10.6 aDOT (169 air yards) in the Week 2 win in New England. It looked like the true start of a Year 2 breakout, and … it wasn’t.

For the next three weeks, Smith-Njigba totaled 131 air yards (6.0 aDOT), reverting to the role he filled as a rookie. In Week 6 against the 49ers, we got another glimpse of those downfield looks (10.6 aDOT, 95 air yards), but I’m not getting sucked in. Not again.

The Falcons are one of four defenses in the NFL to rank in the bottom quarter of the league in both overall pressure rate and pressure rate when blitzing. In short, they can’t get to the quarterback. That’s great news for Seattle’s offense as a whole, but not JSN.

When Geno Smith is pressured:

• DK Metcalf/Tyler Lockett: 72.1% catch rate
• Smith-Njigba: 61.3% catch rate

When Smith is not pressured:

• Metcalf/Lockett: 39.4% catch rate
• Smith-Njigba: 83.3% catch rate

Smith-Njigba targets are comfort food for Smith, a role that I don’t think will be needed in this specific spot. The Falcons also allow the ninth-fewest yards per catch after the reception this season, further limiting JSN’s impact and/or the team’s desire to feature him.

Add in the fact that Atlanta ranks 26th against the run by EPA, and this could be a heavy Kenneth Walker III game. Smith-Njigba has gone under both of these numbers three times this season and, in my opinion, has more outs to cash these tickets than make us regret them.

• Pick: Jaxon Smith-Njigba under 4.5 receptions (+110 at DraftKings)
• Pick: Jaxon Smith-Njigba under 49.5 receiving yards (-120)

The Bills are another low-pressure team, but they rank in the top third of the NFL in pressure rate when blitzing and the bottom third in terms of yards allowed after the completion. I’m not targeting Smith-Njigba overs for my betting card this week, but this is a much better spot than the one he walked into last week.

Jayden Reed, WR | GB (at JAX)

Reed is coming off his worst performance of the 2024 season (two catches for 10 yards on four targets against the Texans), but he gets as good of a bounce-back spot as fantasy managers could possibly ask for.

The Jaguars own the lowest interception rate (0.4%) in the NFL this season, and that has allowed opponents to feel comfortable in being aggressive against their secondary (8.0 yards per attempt, fourth most).

I’ve said it before and I’ll double down: the Packers are trending toward using Reed’s ability to create in space much like the 49ers have molded an offense around Deebo Samuel Sr. That role comes with some risk but more upside than downside when in advantageous spots like this. Reed has a carry in every game this season and a reception of 30+ yards in the majority of contests.

Don’t let last week impact your decision-making for this week — Reed should be treated as a lineup lock in all formats, this week and for the foreseeable future.

Jaylen Waddle, WR | MIA (vs. ARI)

Positive vibes only.

I could tell you that Waddle’s last 50-yard game came in Week 1 or that his air-yard count hasn’t exceeded 34 yards in four of his past five, but this is a game we all love, and it’s much more fun when you leave an article with some hope, right?

Waddle’s last 17 games with his QB1 making the start:

• 118 targets
• 83 catches
• 1,195 yards
• Four touchdowns

Assuming that Tagovailoa gets through the week and enters the weekend as the projected starter, Waddle will rank as a starter in all formats for me, ahead of Garrett Wilson and Jameson Williams.

Jerry Jeudy, WR | CLE (vs. BAL)

Jerry Jeudy is an interesting thought study for fantasy managers. On one hand, the man has done next to nothing. Amari Cooper just left town for Buffalo, yet he has more October catches with the Bills than Jeudy does with the Browns. His last 15-point effort came on Christmas 2022, and this Cleveland offense ranks dead last in yards per game (253.9).

On the other hand, we have a new quarterback taking over. Deshaun Watson’s season ended on Sunday, and while we don’t know their exact plan under center, there is little risk of things getting worse. The two WRs that join Jeudy atop this depth chart are Elijah Moore (1,760 career receiving yards across 3.5 seasons) and Cedric Tillman (15.0 receiving yards per game during his career) — not exactly proven target vacuums.

Are you embracing the change or dismissing the offense?

Reasonable minds can disagree, but I’m willing to give him one week to show me something, a benefit of the doubt that I wouldn’t have given him if not for the quarterback change. This is a strong matchup, so what’s the harm in taking a patient approach?

Maybe this offense is just as pathetic as it’s been, and if that’s the case, you can cut ties with Jeudy after this week. No harm, no foul. But maybe this is the change that unlocks Jeudy, something that you’d want access to down the stretch of the fantasy playoffs (they go to Cincinnati in Week 16 and, off of a mini bye, host the Dolphins in Week 17).

Jordan Addison, WR | MIN (at LAR)

Week 7 was the good and the bad of Addison within a 60-minute window. Unless you were watching the game closely, you could have been convinced that, through three quarters, the second-year playmaker was inactive. He had a pair of catches for 15 yards, but nothing that was noteworthy or all that impactful.

Boom.

In Minnesota’s first full fourth-quarter drive, down eight points with the lead of the NFC North at stake in a drive starting from their own nine-yard line, Sam Darnold hit him with a bomb. Detroit had single coverage without significant help over the top, and that was properly identified. Addison tracked the ball perfectly, making the catch on his way to the ground while the cornerback was in position but unaware of where the ball was.

It was a work of art. He proceeded to not earn a target for the remainder of the game. When all was said and done, Jalen Nailor finished Week 7 with more catches, targets, and yards than Addison, and that’s the issue. Consistency is a major concern, and with T.J. Hockenson expected to be back in the mix, the target count is more likely to trend down than up.

The Rams allow the fourth-most yards per deep pass attempt (15.3) this season, and that hope is enough for Addison to crack my top 40 receivers this week, but I can’t go much higher than that with all 32 teams in action. He’s a viable option if you lost Brandon Aiyuk, but he’s far from a must-play, and I expect that to be the case for the remainder of 2024.

Josh Downs, WR | IND (at HOU)

After three straight games with over 65 receiving yards, a run that included a pair of touchdowns, Downs was a victim of the limitations of this offense and turned three targets into a whopping three yards.

Downs is a talented receiver, but with a 6.7-yard career aDOT and nearly 80% of his routes coming in the slot, his role is not going to soak up consistent usage in an Anthony Richardson-led unit, especially with Michael Pittman Jr. active. The weekly floor is as low as it gets for Downs and with the best defense in terms of slot completion percentage (53.2%) on the other sideline, the odds of a floor performance spike.

JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR | KC (at LV)

Smith-Schuster looked like a real difference-maker in Week 5 against the Saints (seven catches on eight targets for 130 yards), the thought being that he could be a poor man’s version of Rashee Rice in this low-octane-but-efficient offense.

He, however, has fallen victim to the hamstring epidemic that is sweeping the NFL this season and was ruled out for this week on Monday, an indication that this is an injury that is going to take some time. Due to the Chiefs’ perfect record, they can operate with caution.

I’m not sure that Smith-Schuster will earn volume at a high level when healthy, but his direct path to a role in a Patrick Mahomes-led offense makes him a player to keep rostered if at all possible, even with it likely that this injury lingers beyond just this week.

Justin Jefferson, WR | MIN (at LAR)

Jefferson is as good as it gets, it really is that simple. He’s scored in five of six games this season and has a 40-yard catch or six receptions in nine of his past 10 games dating back to last season. There are a dozen receivers in the league today with a similar weekly best-case scenario that is competitive with that of Jefferson, but few offer the floor of Minnesota’s WR1.

The Rams have been better against opposing passing games of late, but we caught a glimpse of just how productive big-play receivers can be against this defense in September (Jameson Williams, Marvin Harrison Jr., and Jauan Jennings combined for 99.9 PPR points). If there is a player who can mirror that level of success, it’s Jefferson.

Kalif Raymond, WR | DET (vs. TEN)

This recent run from the Lions is emblematic of what the 49ers have done during the Brock Purdy era. What happened when that team increased the role of a reserve?

If you were on the Jauan Jennings bandwagon, I don’t need to remind you. That’s not to say that Raymond will produce anything like what Jennings has done this year, but it’s a nice reminder that an efficient offense has the power to elevate pass catchers well beyond even the most aggressive projection.

Through seven weeks, 37.1% of Raymond’s routes this season have come in the slot. Yes, that’s a place where Amon-Ra St. Brown typically lives, but maybe the team gets creative with their WR1 in an effort to make the undersized Raymond (5’8”) more comfortable.

Raymond and Tim Patrick will be vying for looks in this offense with Jameson Williams suspended. While I think Patrick is the more logical fit, I’m happy to add either as a way to get exposure to this machine.

Keenan Allen, WR | CHI (at WAS)

The last time we saw Chicago, Keenan Allen was dancing in the end zone twice, scoring 21.9 PPR points in the easy win over the Jaguars. That was great to see for a veteran who had just 18.1 points on his 2024 ledger going into the matchup.

Is this the start of something or a flash in the pan?

A little bit of both.

I think he’s proven himself as the second most reliable option in a passing game that should continue to get better, though there will be weeks where his opportunity count is low due to the number of options in this offense.

Allen had 127 air yards in Week 1, but his role has come back toward expectations with just 106 since. I love his usage in scoring situations this season (five of his 25 targets have come in the end zone), and while that rate isn’t going to be sustained, it’s encouraging to see him have the trust of his rookie signal-caller at the most important spot on the field for fantasy purposes.

Allen is a fine Flex play, with his health something we can count on right now, though his 8.1 yards per catch introduces a floor that you need to at least be aware of. That said, if you’re not Flexing him here, when are you?

Keon Coleman, WR | BUF (at SEA)

With three 40-plus-yard catches over the past three weeks, Coleman’s stock is quietly ticking up. I like his pedigree, though his volume ceiling is probably capped at the seven targets he saw last week with Amari Cooper poised to assume an alpha WR1 role and Khalil Shakir’s efficiency in the slot not going anywhere.

The Seahawks create pressure at the fourth-highest rate, and if Josh Allen is feeling the heat, Coleman’s floor very much comes into play. Coleman has caught only three of eight targets when his quarterback is pressured this season (13-of-19 otherwise), and it wouldn’t shock me if he is the fourth or fifth option in such situations moving forward.

Last week was Coleman’s first finish as a legitimate fantasy starter. While it was encouraging to see, I need more evidence before I consider him in anything less than a perfect matchup.

Khalil Shakir, WR | BUF (at SEA)

With defenses game planning to take away the chunk plays, you could argue that Shakir’s quick-twitch skills are as valuable in today’s NFL as any time in league history.

It was a little bit of a slow burn last week, but Shakir produced his third top-25 performance of the season. We all thought that his 86.7% catch rate from a season ago was unsustainable. As it turns out, that may have been a down season (27 catches on 28 targets this season). Shakir is the most efficient receiver in the NFL, a skill that is going to need to stick for him to return Flex value. The target count is far more likely to decline than grow with Amari Cooper getting acclimated.

Shakir is a low-end Flex play in this specific matchup because his strength matches up with the strength of a limited Seahawks defense. Through seven weeks, Seattle is allowing a league-low 5.4 yards per slot pass this season, something that knocks Shakir just outside of my top 30 this week.

Ladd McConkey, WR | LAC (vs. NO)

McConkey entered Week 7 battling a hip injury, but he suited up to face the Cardinals and did what he does. Rookies typically take time when it comes to developing the intricacies of the NFL game, instead relying on their physical gifts — that hasn’t been the case with Los Angeles’ impressive slot receiver.

McConkey has earned at least seven targets in three straight games, making him the most reliable option in this very grounded offense. The 4.7-yard aDOT he posted last week was a career low, and I’d argue that’s good for his fantasy stock. Of course, we’d love to see McConkey stretch the field, but in a conservative offense, the ability to win on shallow routes holds value.

He’s Wan’Dale Robinson, but on a team that I trust to keep more games close and with a more consistent quarterback. McConkey’s skill set isn’t as sexy as the other rookies in this class, but his odds of returning a viable PPR stat line are strong, which is more than we can say about many wide receivers.

Malik Nabers, WR | NYG (at PIT)

After two straight DNPs (concussion), Nabers had a 13-yard catch on New York’s first play from scrimmage in Week 7, and we were rolling.

Or not.

Nabers saw seven more targets for the rest of the game but picked up just 28 yards. If you need a silver lining, the rookie posted a 29.6% target share and led the team in receiving yards. I would have taken those notes to the bank if you gave them to me pre-game, but the Giants couldn’t keep the Eagles out of their backfield (eight sacks), giving New York’s passing game no chance to support a single asset.

In theory, better times are ahead. But counting on a bounce back when facing T.J. Watt and Company is a dangerous way to live. The floor is low for the Giants’ offense as a whole, but with Nabers as the clear-cut alpha, there are two matchup notes that have me running him out there as a fine WR2 this week.

Through seven games, the Steelers are allowing the third-highest percentage of yards gained against them to come through the air (72.8%). Playing into that statistic is the fact that a league-high 14.3% of deep passes against them results in touchdowns.

Nabers is typically a fantasy producer who comes with plus marks in both quality and quantity. I’m not confident he gets both in this tough spot, but I think he has a good chance at checking one of those boxes, which should be enough to reward you for your trust.

Marvin Harrison Jr., WR | ARI (at MIA)

Marvin Harrison Jr. suffered a concussion in Week 6 but was able to clear the protocol before Monday night, and the Cardinals showed no concerns about his health (83.6% snap rate, season snap rate: 73.5%).

That was good to see, but the production wasn’t there against a stingy Chargers defense. Harrison turned six targets into just 21 yards, continuing his struggles that now extend through Arizona’s past 15 quarters. Over that stretch, he has seen just 17 targets into 81 touchdown-less yards.

Harrison remains Arizona’s WR1, but he’s no longer in the conversation for such a title in our game. In fact, I now have two rookie receivers ranked ahead of him, and that looks like it’ll be the case moving forward.

Only once this season has a receiver reached 15 PPR points against the Dolphins, and nothing in Harrison’s recent profile suggests that he is a threat to double that number on Sunday.

Michael Pittman Jr., WR | IND (at HOU)

I don’t want to say that Pittman is bizzaro Jaylen Waddle, but …

Pittman with Anthony Richardson, 2024

• 17.4% under fantasy expectations
• 11.9 aDOT
• 57.1% catch rate

Pittman with Joe Flacco, 2024

• 7.8% over fantasy expectation
• 8.9 aDOT
• 63.2% catch rate

While Waddle is a bench player until his preseason QB1 is back under center, it’s looking more and more like Pittman is a bench player only when his preseason QB1 is under center. Last week, Pittman led the Colts in catches and targets while accounting for 48.8% of the team’s receiving yards. That’s a profile that usually prefaces a breakout stat line — but nope, not the case here.

It took all of that for Pittman to get you 9.3 PPR points. Under normal circumstances, I’d write off such inefficiency as an outlier, but this has proven to be the norm. Back in Week 1, against these Texans, Pittman earned a 42.1% target share and turned that impressive usage into 7.1 points.

This is a square-peg/round-hole situation, and while there will likely be moments of production, you are acting with too much hubris if you think you can pinpoint those spots. Pittman is a WR4 for me this week — why wouldn’t I play Jauan Jennings against a banged-up Dallas defense while fulfilling the Brandon Aiyuk role or Darnell Mooney (8.3 targets per game over his past six games) against a vulnerable Buccaneers defense on short rest over him?

Michael Wilson, WR | ARI (at MIA)

I like the skill set that Michael Wilson owns, but for whatever reason, things simply aren’t clicking right now. The second-year receiver remains on the field plenty (81% snap share), he just can’t shake free.

In Weeks 1-5, Wilson had an on-field target share of 18.3%. That’s not an elite mark, but for a young receiver, it’s an acceptable September number, with the thought being that he will trend up with time. That, however, hasn’t been the case.

Over the past two weeks, Wilson’s rate has plummeted to 12.7% — that’s the role of someone on the waiver wire.

I’ve gotten sucked into streaming Wilson in the past, and your process could land you making a similar move this week due to the rash of WR injuries across the NFL.

I mean, Arizona lacks a WR2, has the ability to score in bunches, and Wilson’s size profile (6’2”, 213 pounds) gives him increased touchdown equity. I understand how you land on him as a viable threat because I’ve been right there with you.

I’m off of Wilson until further notice. All of those things remain true, but we have no on-field evidence that a breakout is coming. The Dolphins are the third-best red-zone defense in terms of completion percentage (36.4%), and that’s as good an excuse as any to look elsewhere.

Mike Evans, WR | TB (vs. ATL)

Mike Evans caught his 100th career touchdown pass on Tampa Bay’s first drive last week and had a chance at No. 101. Yet, his bulky hamstring was grabbing at him as he went to make the catch, resulting in his night ending early.

I’m no injury expert, but NFL players are some of the toughest our species has to offer, so the fact that he was in agony and it prevented him from scoring, I’m not counting on having Evans in the short term at the very least (Week 11 bye).

We can circle back to this situation should he recover at hyper-speed, but Jalen McMillan profiles as the role replacement, though you’re asking a lot for the rookie to step in and mirror what the future Hall of Famer does.

Puka Nacua, WR | LAR (vs. MIN)

Updated on Thursday, October 24 at 7:00 PM ET
Puka Nacua is officially active for their Week 8 game.

Updated on Thursday, October 24 at 4:30 PM ET
ESPN’s Adam Schefter reports the Rams activated WR Puka Nacua off injured reserve with the idea that they plan to play him tonight. They won’t decide until pregame warmups how much he can play, but the plan is to play him.

Nacua is set to potentially make a surprise return, though it comes in a difficult spot. Not only is Cooper Kupp seemingly closer to full strength, thus shifting Nacua down the target hierarchy in an offense that already ranks middle of the pack in pass rate over expectation, but this matchup is prohibitive.

Through seven weeks, the Vikings are a top-5 defense in passer rating, TD/INT ratio, and points allowed per drive. With Kyren Williams soaking up the usage in close and Kupp projected to vacuum in the short-to-intermediate targets as he normally does, Nacua carries as much risk as reward into this matchup.

The odds are good, given the state of the position, that you don’t have the luxury of playing another option, so you’re simply hoping for the best from a health standpoint. I have Nacua labeled as a low-end WR2 who is unlikely to see his typical target share should he return tonight.

Quentin Johnston, WR | LAC (vs. NO)

Quentin Johnston’s ankle injury cost him Week 7, and for managers holding onto Weeks 2-3, I admire your loyalty. You’re the type of person I want in my bunker of life, but unconditional support like that is going to limit your upside as a fantasy manager more often than not.

This is a run-centric offense with a fluid hierarchy of targets. If I was writing the profile for a stay-away situation, that would be it. Even if you need to target upside and even if Johnston (team-high 13.0-yard aDOT) is deemed to be fully healthy, he’s still not the dart to throw this week against a Saints defense that owns the lowest deep touchdown pass rate of the season.

If you’re swinging for the fences on an all-or-nothing receiver this week, I’d rather take my chances on Cedric Tillman (vs. Ravens) or Jake Bobo (vs. Bills). You can safely cut ties and free yourself of the hassle of trying to project the usage for this passing game.

Rashod Bateman, WR | BAL (at CLE)

Bateman has had his moments, but that doesn’t change that he is, at best, the third option in the most prolific rushing offense in the NFL. There will be spike games here and there, but the ability to project those weeks is next to impossible.

He doesn’t have much of a path to his role changing from that and that means more risk than reward for fantasy managers. He’s a stash and asset throw in desperate situations, given the rash of injuries at the position across the league, but with no teams on a bye this week, you likely have better options.

Rome Odunze, WR | CHI (at WAS)

I preached patience earlier within Caleb Williams’ profile, and it’s more of the same with his rookie receiver … in dynasty formats. I think Odunze still has a bright future, but I’m willing to cut ties if you find yourself in a roster crunch starting next week.

We all remember the big showing against the Colts (6-112-1, fantasy’s WR7) and the success of rookie receivers across the league makes us want to hold onto hope, but where is the growth going to occur?

Field time isn’t an issue for Odunze (85.5% snap share), and that takes away a development path. For the season, he’s producing 14.5% below expectations, and that aforementioned big game is his only top-45 effort of the season, accounting for 49% of his fantasy production this season.

I’m not pulling the plug on Odunze ahead of this advantageous matchup and still think he’s a viable WR handcuff, though my current expectations are low and I don’t have him ranked as a Flex-worthy option for Week 8.

Romeo Doubs, WR | GB (at JAX)

The wheel of Green Bay goodness landed on Romeo Doubs against the Texans last week, as he had his most catches, targets, and receiving yards in a regular-season game since last September. Doubs’ eight catches were more than any two pass catchers on Green Bay’s offense combined, and his 94 receiving yards were more than Dontayvion Wicks, Jayden Reed, and Tucker Kraft combined.

Be careful. You could elect to read this as Doubs establishing himself as a consistent piece of this offense, but are you really willing to buy in at that level and trust him as your Flex?

In every game this season, he’s had under five targets or over six, and part of what has impressed me about Jordan Love’s development is his willingness to spread the ball around.

Week 6 Packers target shares:

• Jayden Reed: 19.4%
• Tucker Kraft: 12.9%
• Christian Watson: 12.9%
• Romeo Doubs: 12.9%
• Dontayvion Wicks: 9.7%

Week 7 Packers target shares:

• Doubs: 30.3%
• Wicks: 18.2%
• Reed: 12.1%
• Kraft: 12.1%
• Watson: 6.1%

Doubs is a fine player to stash and roll the dice on in case of an emergency. However, with zero teams on a bye this week, hopefully, you don’t need to absorb this sort of risk — even if the matchup is favorable.

Stefon Diggs, WR | HOU (vs. IND)

We saw signs of decline down the field from Stefon Diggs in the second half of last season, so when Nico Collins went down, I was worried about the former’s stock.

Would Diggs be asked to play outside of his comfort zone and down the field? Would the lack of a feared perimeter option clog the short-yardage targets?

As it turns out, no.

Diggs has accounted for 36.7% of Houston’s receptions in the two games that Collins has missed, catching 78.6% of his targets in the process (teammates over that stretch: 50%). He may not have a 30-yard catch this season, and we are more than a full year removed from his last 40-yard reception, but there are a variety of ways to pay the fantasy bills.

Games with 65+ receiving yards, Weeks 3-7

• Justin Jefferson: 4
• Ja’Marr Chase: 4
• Diggs: 4

Is that a cherry-picked leaderboard? You’re damn right it is, but the point remains that Diggs has proven to be as stable a fantasy option as anyone at the position recently. That has him grading out as a high-end WR2 for me in a week where Houston carries an implied total of 26.5 points.

Sterling Shepard, WR | TB (vs. ATL)

The game script got away from Tampa Bay a bit on Monday night. That impacted a snap count for Shepard that, before Week 7, was on the up-and-up.

Shepard’s snap share:

• Week 4 vs. Philadelphia Eagles: 63.5%
• Week 5 at Atlanta Falcons: 66.7%
• Week 6 at New Orleans Saints: 75%

This season, Chris Godwin has been among the most effective slot options in the sport (34 catches on 41 targets for 450 yards and four scores, producing 43.2% over fantasy expectation), a role that Shepard will now be asked to fill.

Fortunately, the ramp-up period for the former Giant has been taking place over the past month, and he should be ready to replace Godwin’s snap share. But asking him to fill those production shoes is a bit much.

That said, the Falcons allow the highest slot completion percentage in the league, giving Shepard some projectable volume that could turn into PPR Flex value in a pinch. He deserves to be rostered across all formats given how this Buccaneers offense functions (third in pass rate over expectation).

Still, expectations need to be measured as we are talking about a 31-year-old receiver who has had his own troubles staying on the field (67 catches in 30 appearances since the start of 2021.

Tank Dell, WR | HOU (vs. IND)

I wasn’t high on Dell coming into the season, but even I had him ahead of my players-who-go-by-the-name-Tank rankings. That’s not the case anymore.

Dell was held without a catch in Lambeau last week (four targets) and has no more than 40 receiving yards in four games this season. We’ve seen him make splash plays in the past to rescue otherwise unappealing weeks, but does that happen against a Colts defense this week that gives up deep touchdowns at the fourth-lowest rate?

I don’t like what I’ve seen from this offense sans Nico Collins, and that has me looking for other Flex options if possible (I have Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Darnell Mooney, and Khalil Shakir all ranked ahead of him for PPR leagues this week).

Tee Higgins, WR | CIN (vs. PHI)

Ja’Marr Chase is the highlight-producing receiver and the player on this team who can change a game with a single play, but this is truly a 1A and 1B situation. Since Higgins debuted in Week 3:

Chase:

• 37 targets (two in the end zone)
• 29 catches (six on third downs)
• Two drops

Higgins:

• 45 targets (three in the end zone)
• 29 catches (nine on third downs)
• Zero drops

Higgins took a crossing pattern to the house for a 25-yard score last week and will rank as a strong start for me weekly. That said, I have one nit to pick, and it’s enough for me to look elsewhere in a DFS setting.

We saw the Eagles heat up the Giants last week with eight sacks. This is a different situation, but it should be noted that Higgins has only been targeted on 8% of his routes this season when Joe Burrow is pressured. Chase is likely to win the quality of target competition with Higgins, and if he also gets the edge in the quantity department, I’m a little concerned.

Terry McLaurin, WR | WAS (vs. CHI)

Dan Quinn has been blunt when it comes to the status of Jayden Daniels — they are going to operate with an abundance of caution. And they should, but fantasy managers riding McLaurin (four top-20 finishes over his past five games) can’t be thrilled with this development.

Should Daniels play through the rib injury, I’d have McLaurin pushing for a WR1 ranking. But with me assuming that the rookie is inactive, Washington’s WR1 is hanging onto fantasy WR2 status by a thread.

I thought Marcus Mariota looked fine last week, but he was in a favorable script against the worst defense in the league, so forgive me if I’m not overly excited about a QB who has been on four rosters over the past four seasons and has just 19 touchdown passes on his résumé since the start of 2020.

Only two receivers have had big days against the Bears this season (12.5+ PPR points): Nico Collins in Week 2 and Gabe Davis in Week 6. The Collins thing happens to almost everyone, and the Davis game is just random variance — he has three of those games a season and Chicago just happened to be on the wrong side of it. Outside of that, this defense has been as stingy as any, and with a full week to prep for Mariota, I’m more likely to roster the Bears DST in DFS than look the way of McLaurin.

Despite being his team’s top option, McLaurin lives in the world of WR2s for Week 8, ranking in the same tier as Garrett Wilson, DeVonta Smith, and Tank Dell.

Tim Patrick, WR | DET (vs. TEN)

I don’t blame you if you want some Lions exposure in your life with Jared Goff playing at the highest level of his career. A healthy Patrick is as good a bet as any to return some cheap value while Jameson Williams (two-game suspension) is out of the mix.

Patrick and Kalif Raymond figure to see the greatest uptick in short-term usage. If this team wants to replace Williams’ ability to stretch the field, Patrick will prove to be the better addition between these two (his aDOT is 42.9% higher than that of Raymond this season). This is his seventh NFL season, and the knock on him hasn’t had anything to do with his talent (14.2 yards per catch with a touchdown on 7.8% of his receptions), it’s all been health-related.

Isn’t that the same story we told about J.K. Dobbins earlier this season? I’m not suggesting, or ranking, Patrick as the breakout star of Week 7. But there is an opportunity there, and I’m stashing him in all spots that I can.

Tyler Lockett, WR | SEA (vs. BUF)

The veteran receiver appears to finally be in decline. After years of overachieving, Father Time seems to have tracked down Lockett, as he has just one top-35 finish after a strong 2024 debut.

Through seven weeks, Lockett’s target earning metrics have all regressed in a significant way, a regression that he could overcome if he continued to be efficient with his opportunities, but that’s not the case (producing 9.4% below target expectation).

Only 20.5% of Seahawk drives have reached the red zone this season, further lowering his floor as the scoring area is the one spot on the field where Lockett has flashed his ability to wiggle free. I’ve got Seattle’s WR3 ranked as a low-end WR4 that I would be actively looking to bench for any level of upside elsewhere (give me any Packer receiver and an unknown quantity in Jalen McMillan as he works into his new role).

Tyreek Hill, WR | MIA (vs. ARI)

I think I’ve used the “he hasn’t been a top-30 receiver since Week 1 stat” in three straight writeups. I’m nothing if not a man of consistency — so, yeah, safe to say that after Hill totaled 13 yards against the Colts, that streak remains alive.

Instead of drilling down on the bad (at this point, you’ve made your decision — benching him is plenty viable should anyone whose name doesn’t rhyme with Blua Bagovailoa start), let’s call back the good times. In Hill’s last 17 games with at least eight targets from QB1:

• 199 targets
• 132 catches
• 1,853 yards
• 13 touchdowns

It feels good to see numbers like that, doesn’t it? I aim to please — and we are getting close to your patience paying off.

Wan’Dale Robinson, WR | NYG (at PIT)

Robinson is boring, but he’s largely been effective in PPR formats with at least five catches in each of his past five games. With Malik Nabers back on the field against the Eagles last week, it was Robinson who led the team in targets.

Of course, his 1.9 aDOT capped his upside, but you’re not rostering Robinson in search of a seven-catch, 175-yard, three-touchdown performance. You’re looking for double-digit points and moving on.

He’s been good for that more often than not, and I think he can sustain that level of success over the next two months, — but not this week.

Steelers against the slot

• Completion percentage: seventh
• Passer rating: third
• Interception rate: second

The Steelers rank fifth in average time of possession this season, making this a potentially low-quantity, low-quality spot for New York’s slot machine.

Xavier Legette, WR | CAR (at DEN)

The rookie has had his moments this season, but they haven’t come recently or under Bryce Young, which introduces more risk than reward into his fantasy profile (34 receiving yards so far in three October games).

Young is averaging a hard-to-comprehend 4.6 yards per pass attempt this season with zero scores on 65 attempts and a QB+ grade since the beginning of last season, which nearly broke our model.

Diontae Johnson projects as the clear target leader on this team, and I’m not confident he provides value in a standard-sized league – a secondary option that could well see some Patrick Surtain coverage on the perimeter isn’t of any interest to me in anything besides Hail Mary DFS lineups.

Xavier Worthy, WR | KC (at LV)

This is a conservative offense, but as Worthy’s role increases, there is hope. Patrick Mahomes is completing a career-high 53.6% of his passes thrown 15+ yards down the field. The role has been the question, and while I think the team is trying to ease their rookie into things, they are quickly running out of options.

Entering last week, Worthy hadn’t posted an on-field target share of over 18.2%. In Week 7, Mahomes tried to get the ball in the hands of his explosive playmaker on 30.8% of his routes. I think we probably land somewhere in the middle of those two rates — that will be enough in more than a few spots.

But does it pay off this week? The Chiefs opened this week as a double-digit road favorite, something that only happened seven times a season ago. In those games, the favorite dominated at the level that was expected (4-2-1 against the spread). The game script may work away from this passing game, putting a premium on efficiency, something that may not be as easy as you’d assume with the Raiders allowing the seventh-fewest yards per deep pass attempt.

Worthy might have a few usable weeks remaining this season, but once Hopkins works his way into the regular mix, the former’s profile has more risk than reward.

Zay Flowers, WR | BAL (at CLE)

An ankle sprain cost Flowers some snaps last week, but nonetheless, it was another dud performance from Baltimore’s WR1. If he was struggling week in and week out, things would be easier. It would be disappointing, but at least we’d know what to do — bench him.

As it stands right now, we are helpless. The situation and role demand we start Flowers weekly, even if we are doing so with next to no certainty as to what we are going to get.

• Week 3 at Dallas Cowboys: three catches for 20 yards (fantasy’s WR71)
• Week 4 vs. Buffalo Bills: one catch for 10 yards (WR94)
• Week 5 at Cincinnati Bengals: seven catches for 111 yards (WR14)
• Week 6 vs. Washington Commanders: nine catches for a career-high 132 yards (WR6)
• Week 7 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: one catch for 11 yards (WR65)

The Browns are allowing a league-high 14.3 yards per catch to the slot this season. That has me trending toward this being a strong week for Flowers, but you need to be aware of the downside that comes with trusting him in a game that very well could be dominated by Derrick Henry.

At the very least, keep an eye on his bulky ankle. He returned to Week 7 after the injury and should be good to go, but given the up-and-down nature of his production, sharp managers will keep updated with the most recent news coming out of Baltimore.

Week 8 TE Start-Sit Advice

Brock Bowers, TE | LV (vs. KC)

As the tight end position continues to crumble, Bowers’ rookie season becomes that much more impressive. He’s now seen double-digit targets in three straight games, and it’s not just the volume that has fantasy managers salivating; it’s where those opportunities are coming.

In Weeks 1-4, Bowers didn’t see a single red-zone look, but he’s been targeted in close every game since, fueling five top-five finishes this season.

At this point, he’s proven that he is situation-proof. I don’t care which receivers are active or who is under center — Bowers is on the short list of players that can pace the position in scoring the rest of the way and is an obviously weekly starter in all formats.

#Raiders TE Brock Bowers is on record pace for receptions by a rookie tight end this season.

Bowers has recorded 47 receptions this season, passing the rookie record for most receptions by a tight end through 7 weeks (43 – Sam LaPorta, 2023). 😤 pic.twitter.com/iqimlUh0nz

— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) October 20, 2024

Cole Kmet, TE | CHI (at WAS)

Kmet is a good reminder that we are betting on a situation and role more than a player. Nothing in his profile suggests that he has made any growth from last season, but he’s always on the field (81% snap share or better in four straight games) and plays in an upward-trending unit that has had two full weeks to prepare for one of the worst defenses at all three levels.

He was TE2 in Week 3 and TE1 the last time we saw the Bears in Week 6, those, of course, are his only finishes better than TE17 this season. He’s viable but not special. This matchup can elevate bad to average, viable to valuable, and highly involved to elite. I’ve got Kmet ranked as a low-end TE1 as more of a bet on Caleb Williams having success in this spot than anything directly related to the tight end himself.

Dallas Goedert, TE | PHI (at CIN)

Goedert suffered a hamstring injury two weeks ago in the win over the Browns and it cost him last week. He has dealt with his fair share of injuries during his career (one full season on his NFL résumé with multiple missed games in each of the past four seasons) — which makes his status one to track.

Grant Calcaterra caught all four of his targets for 67 yards in Week 6 after Goedert left early, but he underwhelmed last week in a low-volume game for the Eagles’ passing game as a whole (one catch for five yards).

If Goedert is active, I’m playing him over the TE streaming options. He has a 15-plus-yard catch in every healthy game this season and faces a vulnerable secondary that is allowing the third-highest red-zone completion percentage. Moving forward, Goedert is a low-end TE1 once we get proof that this hamstring injury is in the rearview.

Dalton Kincaid, TE | BUF (at SEA)

With just one finish inside the top 10 at the position this season, it’s impossible to label Kincaid’s season as anything other than a fantasy bust through seven weeks of this season. Add in the fact that this team brought in an alpha receiver to vacuum in targets and the outlook doesn’t look great for Kincaid, a player who had a breakout season written all over him after a strong 2023 showing.

That said, I’m not punting on him just yet. He has set a new season high in receiving yards in consecutive weeks (yes, it’s pathetic that it only took 52 yards to get there, but any step forward is worth noting), and he’s averaged at least 2.0 yards per route in four of his past five games.

Kincaid has fallen out of my must-start tier at the position, but I still have him ranked ahead of the widely available streaming options. The season-long numbers look OK for the Seahawks, but since Week 3, they are allowing the second-most yards per pass, making this a matchup that could well continue the positive momentum.

Dalton Schultz, TE | HOU (vs. IND)

Being on the field is Step 1 to produce, but it’s not the only step, and Schultz is proof of just that. He’s been on the field for over 75% of Houston’s offensive snaps in five straight games, but he doesn’t yet have 35 receiving yards in a game, something that feels impossible given the various injuries that have taken place around him in this offense.

With just one end-zone target on the season, Schultz is drawing dead in many regards. This offense isn’t as explosive as we were hoping, and that further lowers the scoring equity for their tight end. If you’re looking for options on the wire, Hunter Henry is still available in some spots, and Ja’Tavion Sanders has my interest in deeper formats.

David Njoku, TE | CLE (vs. BAL)

When the Patriots made their change under center, I encouraged you to scoop up shares of their pass catchers, understanding that any change is a good change, and the same logic applies to Cleveland. Njoku profiles as the best pass catcher on this roster, and his athletic touchdown near the end of Week 7 was a good reminder of that.

Over the past two weeks, the tight end has been targeted on 21 of 65 routes, a spike in usage from his eight looks on 41 routes prior. The Ravens continue to have all sorts of issues against the pass (bottom 10 in completion percentage, touchdown rate, passer rating, and yards per attempt) and that’s not changing on a short week.

Starting a player on this offense isn’t going to be comfortable, but Njoku checks in as TE8 for me this week, and I don’t have any reservations about it.

Evan Engram, TE | JAX (vs. GB)

If only every injury recovery was as smooth as that of Engram. The star tight end suffered a hamstring injury while warming up for Week 2 and didn’t return to action until Week 6, but man has he returned in style.

In his two games back, Engram has caught all 15 of his targets and has seen a look on 30.6% of his routes, a rate that leaves his 2023 rate in the dust (22.6%, a season in which he caught 114 passes). We know he’s more than capable of getting open and serving as Trevor Lawrence’s safety valve, but the team has had no issues in scheming up looks to get him in a rhythm.

• Lawrence pass short left to Engram for eight yards
• Lawrence pass short right to Engram for 13 yards

That’s how Jacksonville opened Week 7, proof positive that they are looking to run their offense through their tight end. Engram is a top-five tight end for me this week and moving forward as this level of volume is unique at the position.

George Kittle, TE | SF (vs. DAL)

I must have missed the memo, but apparently, it is illegal for primary 49ers offensive pieces to come away from a game at full strength. Kittle is dealing with a foot sprain labeled as a “day-to-day” situation — a minor limp makes him the healthiest of the preseason Big Four in this San Francisco offense.

His overall target rate, red zone target rate, slot usage, and drop rate are all better than last season. Now, he figures to add a volume bump to those efficiency stats with Brandon Aiyuk out of the mix, not to mention the uncertain nature of Deebo Samuel Sr.

A day before his 30th birthday last season, Kittle turned three targets into 67 yards and three scores against the Cowboys, making the headlines when he flashed a “F Dallas” shirt underneath his pads. Yeah, I think he takes this matchup personally, and he’s in a position to impact it in a significant way.

Kittle is my TE1 this week and for the remainder of the season, giving managers who drafted him this summer a decided advantage on the rest of their league.

Hunter Henry, TE | NE (vs. NYJ)

Henry now has 11 catches for 133 yards and a touchdown (14 targets) across Drake Maye’s two starts (three games prior: six catches for 53 yards and zero scores on 10 targets), proving to be the primary winner of the change under center.

I love the fact that he’s spent 40.7% of his time in the slot this season, a role that helps elevate his floor at a rate that is well ahead of other options that aren’t universally rostered. He’s athletic enough to give this team some versatility through the air that they are lacking at the receiver position.

Henry’s aDOT by week, 2024:

• Week 1 at Cincinnati Bengals: 11.3 yards
• Week 2 vs. Seattle Seahawks: 5.7 yards
• Week 3 at New York Jets: 15.5 yards
• Week 4 at San Francisco 49ers: 5.5 yards
• Week 5 vs. Miami Dolphins: 13.5 yards
• Week 6 vs. Houston Texans: 6.3 yards
• Week 7 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars: 11.8 yards

The tight end position is a reactionary one for those of us who don’t have one of the top six at the position. Henry is as good a bet as any in the short term to score double-digit PPR points. I don’t love this matchup, but the Jets have the second-highest opponent average depth of throw this season — one big play is all it takes.

Isaiah Likely, TE | BAL (at CLE)

The athletic profile is just as impressive now as it was when he had the big season opener in Kansas City, but Likely has been unable to carve out enough of a role to matter.

His on-field target share has been north of 21% in consecutive games, but with his snap rate trending in the wrong direction (70.1% in Week 5, 67.7% in Week 6, and 57.4% on Monday night), the pie simply isn’t large enough to feel good about rostering Likely.

For the record, that doesn’t mean cross him off of your list of potential streamers. This remains an offense that I want exposure to. Considering that Likely has five end-zone targets over the past three weeks, he is as good a bet to score as any of the tight ends on your wire.

Jake Ferguson, TE | DAL (at SF)

I thought Ferguson was a legitimate threat to lead the position in scoring; safe to say, I no longer think that. Despite not having a touchdown on his résumé this season (we need him targeted on more than 10% of his red-zone routes!) and a 17-game pace of just 816 yards, Ferguson has been a top-10 tight end in three of his five games this season.

There’s very little to like in the way of per-target upside, but with his slot usage spiking from 32% last season to 47.1% through six weeks, I think there’s a reasonable floor to target here, especially in a matchup against a low-blitz, high-pressure San Francisco defense.

We should see his range of outcomes narrow coming out of the bye (he has the aforementioned three top 10s alongside two finishes as TE25 or worse), making him a weekly option that you can feel good about rolling out there.

Kyle Pitts, TE | ATL (at TB)

The former first-round pick has 65+ receiving yards in three straight games, matching Brock Bowers for the longest TE streak this season and the longest by a Falcons tight end since Tony Gonzalez (Weeks 10-14, 2011). Is the breakout coming?

It’s possible. Pitts recorded season highs in catches (seven) and targets (nine) last week, posting his fourth finish of TE13 or better in a five-game stretch. What encouraged me most from last week was consecutive catches of 10-plus yards on the first drive. He’s being scripted into this offense in a way that we never saw under Arthur Smith.

The upside might not be what we thought it was (his aDOT is down 27.5% from 2023), but fantasy managers should be happy to sell off some ceiling for additional stability — that’s the situation I think we have.

There was a moment in late September when Pitts was on the fantasy chopping block, but he’s now a tier ahead of streamers and one that can be started with confidence moving forward.

Mark Andrews, TE | BAL (at CLE)

He’s back, baby! The tight end I paid top dollar for this summer had a slow start, but he’s been a top-six producer at the position in consecutive weeks. He is 100% ready to be the asset I hoped for when it matters most!

Slow down.

Yes, Andrews has now scored three times over the past two weeks and set a season high in fantasy points in three straight. But acting as if all is right is a bit optimistic (and is exactly what makes him the top sell-high candidate of the week).

We know this offense is going to run through Derrick Henry more often than not — that has Andrews’ role taking a back seat. He hasn’t been on the field for even 55% of Baltimore’s offensive snaps in a game since Week 2 and has relied on insane efficiency over the past three weeks to give him lineup-worthy numbers (12.5 yards per target with one score every 4.3 targets isn’t exactly stable).

It’s encouraging that Andrews is getting valuable looks. That’s enough to justify starting him as a part of the best offense in the NFL, but I’d very much caution against assuming that his elite fantasy status is back like it never left.

Noah Fant, TE | SEA (vs. BUF)

Slowly but surely, Fant is making his way onto the streaming radar, and I don’t mind going that direction this week if you believe the Seahawks are playing catch-up. In the Week 7 win over the Falcons, we saw some explosive play-making from the former Hawkeye as he reeled in first half catches of 21 and 28 yards, his two longest grabs of the season.

Over the past five weeks, none of the 21 passes thrown in Fant’s direction have hit the turf. That efficiency has allowed him to produce well over expectation for fantasy managers who took a flier on him.

Geno Smith has 126 more passing yards than any other quarterback through seven weeks. If that continues to be the approach of this offense, this won’t be the last time you see Fant highlighted as a viable option off the wire.

Pat Freiermuth, TE | PIT (vs. NYG)

After being targeted on over 15.5% of passes when he was on the field in each of Pittsburgh’s first four games this season, Freiermuth hasn’t cleared 12.5% in three straight games. He managed to haul in a nice 30-yard catch in Russell Wilson’s season debut, but it was his third straight game with no more than three catches.

Volume has never been a calling card for Freiermuth, and even with Wilson adding equity to the passing game, it’s not something we can rely on. He is the head of the “I’m a part of this offense but need a touchdown to pay off” tier at tight end. That makes him expendable if there are other options available.

I prefer Hunter Henry to Freiermuth this week if we are looking at “fringey” tight ends playing New York teams. Henry has been a part of the Drake Maye puzzle. That role is good enough for confidence in him over Freiermuth this week in a more difficult matchup than you might assume for a player with this skill set (the Giants rank better than league average in YAC, red-zone defense, and overall scoring defense this season).

Sam LaPorta, TE | DET (vs. TEN)

LaPorta has been a victim of the success of the Lions, a vastly different story than the one we were telling in August. We liked this offense to succeed, with the budding star being a key cog in it. However, instead, they are putting points on the board so quickly that LaPorta hasn’t been near the target vacuum we projected.

In Week 1, he saw five targets and we were underwhelmed — the man hasn’t seen five targets in a game since. His aDOT and route participation are in the same range as they were a year ago, but with Jared Goff processing at the speed of light and distributing the ball to the first player to get open, LaPorta’s on-field target share has cratered from 21.7% to 10.2% (three targets on 43 routes run over the past two weeks).

In the short term, this has a chance of changing due to the suspension of Jameson Williams. Goff’s average yards per attempt is tracking to be a career high by 10.7%, a number that is inflated by the catch-and-run ability of a player like JaMo. Goff’s average depth of throw this season is actually a tick under his career average, and that’s consistent with what we had projected, but the Williams involvement on those passes was something we undershot.

With Williams sidelined for the next two weeks, I suspect we see something close to the 2023 version of LaPorta in terms of volume. You’ve hung in there up to this point, it’s time to be rewarded for your loyalty!

Taysom Hill, TE | NO (at LAC)

Fantasy managers may want to get cute by playing Hill at tight end, with the thought process that he could see an extended run under center and thus prove to be something of a cheat code.

I’m not fully against the idea, but facing the seventh-best red zone defense in the league (45.5% touchdown rate) makes New Orleans’ offensive weapon a bit tougher to sell.

Hill is cleared to play (ribs), and a good fit for what projects to be a physical battle, but his opportunity count is unlikely to impress, and with an implied team total of just 17 points, I think streamers can do better.

T.J. Hockenson, TE | MIN (at LAR)

Updated at 4:30 PM on Thursday, October 24
We’ll have to wait another week for T.J. Hockenson as he has been ruled inactive for Week 8’s game against the Los Angeles Rams.

Hockenson is nearing his return from the devastating knee injury that ended his 2023 season. Once he is back for the Vikings, he is back for you. Sam Darnold is completing 74.3% of his short passes this season with a 106.4 passer rating on those looks. Hock should walk into the secondary role in this passing game and be as good a bet for 5-7 targets as anyone at the position.

I expect there to be some slow weeks in the beginning, but 75% of Hockenson in an offense that is far better than we assumed when we were drafting this summer is better than the vast majority of tight ends in the sport.

The tight end position isn’t one to be cute with — you play the options with elite upside and Hockenson is certainly on that list.

Travis Kelce, TE | KC (at LV)

The Chiefs really want to manage Kelce, but they are running out of bodies in the short passing game. That’s the primary reason for my optimism about the future Hall of Famer for the remainder of the season.

We know that Rashee Rice is done for the season and JuJu Smith-Schuster was an early rule out for Week 8. We are angling toward Kelce’s third game with seven-plus catches over the past month. He may only have two finishes better than TE15 this season, but there’s not much you can do. Trading him for pennies on the dollar isn’t logical with the role as strong as it’s been at any point this season, and the waiver wire is a wasteland for the tight end position.

Kelce caught 11 of 14 targets against the Raiders (allowing the seventh-most yards per catch to the slot this year) last season with a 20-yard grab in both contests. He’s still deserving of a Tier 1 designation at the tight end position, even if his production has yet to reflect as much.

Trey McBride, TE | ARI (at MIA)

McBride extended his streak of games with at least six targets to 14 straight. That alone is enough to lock him into fantasy lineups. The prospect profile, not to mention the production down the stretch last season, suggests that this level of involvement (28% target share on Monday night against the Chargers) will eventually come with elite production attached to it. We just have to be patient.

By no means has he been bad this season, he just hasn’t quite lived up to expectations. He is yet to score and has been held under 55 yards in the majority of his games this season. McBride’s aDOT is up 22.6% from a season ago, and with a route adjustment like that, there is a learning curve to be expected. He remains one of my five favorite tight ends the rest of the way, and I feel good about saying that the best is yet to come in 2024 for this 24-year-old.

Tucker Kraft, TE | GB (at JAX)

They say that we don’t know if a tree falling in a forest makes a sound if no one is around to hear it. The fantasy equivalent is as follows:

“If a tight end fails to pick up yardage but manages to score, does anyone notice?”

The answer is no. Kraft has now scored four times in four games and is firmly on the low-end TE1 radar as a result — not bad for a player who has yet to reach 40 air yards in a single game. His touchdown on Sunday was the result of his first end-zone target this season.

While the sheer number of viable pass catchers in Green Bay these days makes a reasonable target or yardage share difficult to project, this offense (sixth-most red-zone trips per game since the start of 2023) threatens paydirt enough to justify going in this direction.

Kraft is my TE8 for this week and will find himself in that 8-12 range more often than not — he’s part of the “I’ll play him every week and take my chances” tier that now includes David Njoku, Cole Kmet, Dalton Kincaid, and the emerging Hunter Henry.

Tyler Conklin, TE | NYJ (at NE)

Conklin found the end zone on a play that the Jets never wanted to take place (the coaching staff botched a chance to challenge if the play prior was a score). That was pretty much the only noteworthy play we saw from the tight end during Davante Adams’ debut (four catches for seven yards).

Against the Steelers, Conklin’s on-field target share was under 12%, a low threshold that he has now failed to reach in the majority of games. He’s been useful in three of seven weeks this season. While that is a suitable hit rate, it’s not one that I’d bank on sustaining with this offense as it is currently constructed.

If we see this offense click and generate red-zone drives on a consistent basis, we can have a discussion about streaming Conklin. But for now, there’s no need to keep him rostered. Hunter Henry, Noah Fant, and even Ja’Tavion Sanders are all options down the board that I like the short-term outlook of more.

Zach Ertz, TE | WAS (CHI)

The veteran tight end has seen at least five targets in consecutive games for the first time this season, and his getting there in a game led by Marcus Mariota is encouraging given the unknown status of Jayden Daniels at this moment.

The Bears are the most difficult team to complete red-zone passes against (30%), and that cuts out the legs from some of Ertz’s immediate appeal. That said, he has cleared fantasy expectations in five of six games this season (his first touchdown of the season got him there last week). That allows him to sneak inside my top 15 at the position this week, even in a less-than-ideal matchup

I’m counting on Daniels playing — should he sit, Ertz would fall a few spots but remain within the same streamer tier.