Soppe’s Week 18 Fantasy Football Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em: Analysis for Every Player in Every Game

This game of ours is one of very little separation, and that makes every decision critical. As much as I’d love to help every one of you with your specific questions (I’ll try — @KyleSoppePFN), that’s a big ask.

What I can give you, every single week, are my takes. My statistical-backed rankings are available, but you, the devoted fantasy manager, need more than simply a number next to a name. You need to know why I stand where I do, and that’s my goal with this novel.

If you have a question, hit me up on Twitter, but my hope is that this extended piece will give you the insight you’re looking for without relying on me landing on your specific question before lineups lock.

You don’t have to get ready if you stay ready — this piece, is me staying ready to help you win the week!

Looking to make a trade in your fantasy league? Having trouble deciding who to start and who to sit? Setting DFS lineups? Check out PFN’s Free Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer, Start/Sit Optimizer, and DFS Lineup Optimizer to help you make the right decision!

Week 18 Fantasy Football Quarterbacks

Aaron Rodgers, QB | NYJ (vs. MIA)

Aaron Rodgers has had more downs than ups this season, but he has completed 17 of 21 play-action passes over the past two weeks (81%), and with the Dolphins giving up more yards per carry after contact than any other defense, it’s easy to envision a scenario where the play fake is weaponized this weekend.

Rodgers looked good in the first game against the ‘Fins (Week 14: 339 passing yards and a touchdown), and all signs seem to point to him finishing the season. This is a weird ranking week for the QB position, as I’ve prioritized Russell Wilson (vs. CIN) and Michael Penix Jr. while weighing team motivation in a significant way toward the bottom of my QB1 rankings.

That drops Rodgers outside of my top 12, even in a reasonable spot. The Jets looked like a mess last week, and there is no overlooking that potential for this week. The future Hall of Famer has just two finishes better than QB10 this season, and while it’s possible that he adds to that total if he continues to weigh down Davante Adams with targets, I’m not ranking it that way, opting for better matchups in big team spots.

Aidan O’Connell, QB | LV (vs. LAC)

Aidan O’Connell turned 12 third-down pass attempts into 131 yards and his first third-down score of the season on Sunday. We’ve seen him weasel his way into the top 15 fantasy performers at the position twice this season, but I still think we are looking at a player that is a ways from mattering for fantasy managers consistently.

Over his last 14 appearances (12 starts), O’Connell has completed 69.4% of his non-pressured passes with nine touchdowns and two interceptions. I think he’s proven himself to be the best option in Vegas — that might be damning with faint praise. But if they can stabilize the run game and/or add another pass catcher, there’s a world in which O’Connell is a matchup-based streamer in very specific windows next season as he navigates a last-place schedule.

Anthony Richardson, QB | IND (vs. JAX)

Anthony Richardson (back/foot) did not practice at all last week and ultimately sat out against the Giants. It’s since been reported that he is dealing with “very serious” back spasms, and that all but ensures that his second season is over.

Just as concerning as the 50.6% career completion percentage and sub-1.0 TD/INT rates is his inability to stay on the field (16 games played across two seasons, and that includes a few early exits).

Richardson’s profile is fantasy-friendly, and I think he has enough in terms of team support to make this an above-average offense, but without growth as a passer, the expectation that he’ll be a consistent option in our game is unrealistic.

That said, the second that switch flips, we are talking about a top-five option that could prove to be a league winner the way Jayden Daniels has been this season. It’ll be a price-sensitive decision come drafts this summer, but I can see myself going back to this well, understanding that there is still plenty of depth at the position to insulate this risky investment.

Baker Mayfield, QB | TB (vs. NO)

I encourage you to run through the ranking process this week and tell me on Twitter how many QBs you slot in ahead of Baker Mayfield.

Spoiler alert, it’s a short list.

It’s so short that I’m not even sure it’s technically a “list.” Mayfield has 12 top-10s this season, and half of those finishes have been top-fives. He threw for 325 yards and four scores along with three interceptions in a Week 6 trip to New Orleans.

Chris Godwin was heavily featured in that contest while Mike Evans was held in check, something that obviously can’t happen this week, but with Jalen McMillan emerging (one target in that first game, six Buccaneers were more involved) and Marshon Lattimore now a Commander, I can’t think of any reason to bench Mayfield.

That’s a lie. The two reasons are Lamar Jackson and Jayden Daniels as they are the only two QBs I have ranked ahead of him this weekend.

Bo Nix, QB | DEN (vs. KC)

Bo Nix held his own in a Week 10 showdown with these Chiefs; now, the script flips. Instead of being a road underdog against a defense as talented as any, he’s a home favorite against a unit that will likely manage the reps of its starters.

Bo Nix has been clutch when it matters most. He's 15-of-19 this season in the final two minutes of fourth quarters this season (78.9%, best in the league). 🎯 pic.twitter.com/IC2fW64KSV

— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) December 29, 2024

The skill set is fun and the upside is obvious, but how about the usage?

• Cam Newton (2011)

That is your full list of rookie QBs since 2000 with more games than Nix with at least 20 rushing yards and 30 passing attempts. Nix has done it in each of his past three games and has clearly earned Sean Payton’s trust when it comes to this team’s fate.

The rookie has been producing all season long, and we could see him post a big fantasy number with Denver’s season on the line.

Brock Purdy, QB | SF (at ARI)

In Weeks 1-16, we didn’t have a single game where a QB threw for 350 yards and three touchdowns while also rushing for a score — Joe Burrow and Purdy both did it in Week 17.

Last week was fun — until it wasn’t. A late elbow injury resulted in Purdy missing sometime late in the loss to the Lions, and he will not play in Week 18. Instead, Joshua Dobbs will get the start under center.

This year, Purdy did just fine for himself, given the circumstances. With his top skill-position teammates falling like flies, he posted nine top-12 finishes.

I like his combination of athleticism and YAC teammates, which could land him on many of my wait-on-a-quarterback rosters next season.

Bryce Young, QB | CAR (at ATL)

Bryce Young has multiple touchdown passes without an interception in consecutive games – he had one such game previously on his NFL résumé. There is enough to like in Young’s profile for the Panthers to move forward with him labeled as ”the guy” for this rebuild, and I continue to like the upside of the pieces he has at his disposal.

… for next season.

… or maybe 2026.

Not Week 18. The Falcons are playing for a playoff berth, and their pass defense has looked better lately (even in a loss last week, they held Jayden Daniels to 6.3 yards per attempt).

Andy Dalton threw for 221 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions for Carolina against Atlanta in Week 6, a stat line that I think is on the high end of optimistic for Young this weekend. That’s not going to be enough to pay off starting him in most single-QB formats.

Caleb Williams, QB | CHI (at GB)

Maybe we set the bar a bit high for Caleb Williams. We saw the pedigree and the situation and assumed that there would be an instant translation to fantasy relevance, something that pretty clearly hasn’t happened, especially when you juxtapose it to other members of this rookie class.

We’ve seen some flashes from Williams this season, despite the disappointing overall production, and that includes moments against these Packers. In Week 11, he funneled 64.5% of his targets to his trio of receivers on his way to completing 23 of 31 passes for 231 yards. He also added 70 yards on the ground, giving us a glimpse of what the future may hold. I’m not betting on him doing similar things in January at Lambeau, but I’m certainly not throwing in the towel on him as a prospect as we begin to turn our attention toward next season.

Video game numbers are great, but when I’m evaluating a rookie QB, I want to see poise. These high-end prospects usually end up in rebuilding situations, and if they can show composure early on, it paves the way for future growth. Williams isn’t there yet, but I’d very much caution against overreacting to his profile.

Rookie season, under pressure:

• Williams: 44.1% complete, 5.5 yards per attempt, and 5.1% TD rate
• Joe Burrow: 37.3% complete, 4.2 yards per attempt, and 2.9% TD rate

Rookie season, when blitzed:

• Williams: 57.6% complete, 6.7 yards per attempt, and 3.5 TD/INT
• Burrow: 61.0% complete, 6.6 yards per attempt, and 1.3 TD/INT

I’m not suggesting that Williams is Windy City Burrow, but Cincinnati saw their top overall pick make a massive jump in Year 2 (getting Ja’Marr Chase certainly helped, but I’d argue that the Bears spent this season getting Williams acclimated with his weapons). But I’m not ruling that out in a division that is going to require scoring points in bunches for years to come.

Year 2 Burrow:

• Pressured: 60.9% complete, 8.6 yards per attempt, and 6.8% TD rate
• Blitzed: 68.8% complete, 10.3 yards per attempt, and 2.5 TD/INT

C.J. Stroud, QB | HOU (at TEN)

The Texans don’t have any upward mobility this weekend. They are locked into the No. 4 seed, and that means that, if chalk holds, they will draw the Chiefs in the second round. They are going to have a battle on their hands just to get to that point, and they really haven’t looked like a legitimate threat for a while (5-1 start to the season, 4-6 since).

C.J. Stroud was just ordinary in the Week 12 loss to these Titans (he threw for 247 yards with a pair of touchdowns and a pair of interceptions), but it’s difficult to see him playing a full 60 minutes this weekend with the understanding that Houston will be hosting a Wild Card game next week.

When looking forward, be it for DFS purposes this postseason or early 2025 rankings, Stroud’s regression as a field stretcher has to be considered. We’ve seen the Bengals adapt their offense and draw back Ja’Marr Chase’s aDOT in the process — do the Texans try something similar in short order to make their second-year QB more efficient?

Stroud threw 116 deep passes (15+ air yards) as a rookie, averaging 14.5 yards per attempt with nine touchdowns and zero interceptions in the process. This season, on 122 such passes, Stroud is averaging 11.0 yards per pass with five touchdowns and seven interceptions.

Cooper Rush, QB | DAL (vs. WAS)

With CeeDee Lamb sidelined the Cowboys decided to … ramp up the aggression?

Cooper Rush’s aDOT entering Week 17 was 6.7 yards. On Sunday, his rate spiked to 9.4. That’s only a single data point, but it’s an interesting one heading into a matchup against the third-worst deep-ball defense in the league in terms of touchdown rate.

Rush threw for 247 yards and a pair of scores in the first meeting with the Commanders. While that sounds tempting to chase, 41.7% of his completions that afternoon went to Lamb. I thought Washington’s defense was fine for the majority of Week 17 outside of the final drive in regulation. With their seeding on the line, I’m expecting a similar performance this week.

He may have his moments on Sunday, but I’d be surprised if Rush returned top-15 value this week.

Derek Carr, QB | NO (at TB)

Derek Carr has the potential to return this week for the Saints for reasons unknown, but his status shouldn’t be of concern in fantasy circles given the carnage around him at the skill positions.

Even with talent coming in and out, Carr has failed to throw multiple touchdown passes in the majority of his games this season. That is going to render any pocket-locked signal-caller as close to useless.

I give him credit for trying to return to action and finish the season, but my fantasy bills aren’t paid on credit.

Dorian Thompson-Robinson, QB | CLE (at BAL)

“If you have nothing good to say, say nothing at all.”

I was raised with that quote, and Dorian Thompson-Robinson is really pushing my limits. He leads the league in pass attempts (81) over the past two weeks, and leading a professional sport in anything that isn’t directly negative is kind of a good thing, isn’t it?

He weighed down Jerry Jeudy with targets over the weekend, and that is realistically all we are asking for. But, my goodness, has it been a struggle? He’s the first quarterback since Chris Simms (Weeks 14-15, 2005) to fail to throw a touchdown pass and fail to reach 175 passing yards while completing 20+ passes in consecutive games.

Reaching NFL history – it may not be positive, but at least it’s a fun note for a two-game stretch that has to be labeled as a disaster, even for a franchise that suffered through seven Deshaun Watson games this season.

Drake Maye, QB | NE (vs. BUF)

With 124 passing yards on Sunday, Drake Maye will become the seventh QB in NFL history with 2,400 passing yards and 420 rushing yards in his first season, joining Jayden Daniels and Caleb Williams as members of the 2024 class to appear on that list.

Consistency has been an issue, but that’s common as college kids adjust to the pro game. The fact of the matter is that we’ve seen enough to be optimistic long-term.

Maye jumps up the Week 18 rankings because New England is only worried about developing him, and thus he’s a good bet to play 60 minutes. He looked just fine two weeks ago in this matchup (261 passing yards, two passing scores, and three rushing yards), and that exact line projects as more valuable now than in Week 16.

Maye is a low-end QB1 for me this week in what could be a glimpse into the future. The can’t-teach tools are there — once this roster catches up, a fantasy explosion feels more inevitable than it does wish casting.

Drew Lock, QB | NYG (at PHI)

Andrew Luck … Drew Luck … Drew Lock.

A few minor spelling changes and we’d have a QB with elite pedigree and high expectations. Instead, we have none of those things, so when Lock posts the best Giants QB+ in our database and a top-five overall grade of the season, we take notice in a big way.

The list of players since 2020 with a 300-yard, four-TD, one-rushing-TD game is a short and impressive one:

• Josh Allen (3x)
• Patrick Mahomes (1)
• Tom Brady (1)
• Justin Herbert (1)
• Dak Prescott (1)
• Drew Lock (1)

Last week was a lot of fun, and with a concentrated target tree, maybe I’m underselling his chances to expose what figures to be a backup-laden Eagles secondary, but I’m not at all interested in chasing the points I missed out on last week.

For his career, Lock is a sub-60% passer with nearly as many interceptions (nine) as touchdown passes (10) since 2021. I’ll trust the overall profile instead of an exciting 60 minutes.

Geno Smith, QB | SEA (at LAR)

Geno Smith’s average depth of throw on Thursday night was 3.2 yards, the second shortest in a winning effort of his career (minimum 20 attempts). I think that might turn into more the norm with Jaxon Smith-Njigba transitioning to the lead man in Seattle’s receiving game; while there will be poor matchups for a skill set like that, facing a Rams defense that ranks 26th in preventing YAC isn’t a bad spot.

We saw Smith exploit this weakness in the Week 9 meeting, as he averaged 10.4 yards per short completion, his highest mark of the season. Even more promising is the fact that this move to a low-risk offense has required very little in the way of a learning curve – Smith has completed 67 of 81 shot passes (82.7%) over his past four games.

Generally speaking, I’m not sold on Smith as a stable asset week over week, but in this specific spot with so many of the big names at risk of seeing limited work, I think he’s a viable option in most formats.

Jalen Hurts, QB | PHI (vs. NYG)

Jalen Hurts completed one of his four passes for 11 yards in Week 16 before entering concussion protocol and being ruled out for the remainder of the game. This was obviously a brutal break for fantasy managers, as there was no reason to not play him with the utmost confidence (2023 was his first season without a DNP).

Philadelphia sat him out last week against the Cowboys and is now locked in the two-seed. With Hurts still in protocol, there is no reason to rush him back.

Kenny Pickett will likely draw a second straight start. He looked fine last week against an overmatched Cowboys team (10-of-15 for 143 yards and a touchdown), but that was with DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown dominating down the field.

It would stand to reason that all valuable Philadelphia pieces are players you want to avoid, and that would wipe Pickett off of my DFS player pool, even with a cheap price tag.

Jared Goff, QB | DET (vs. MIN)

Jared Goff stands alone at the top of the NFL in terms of games with at least three touchdown passes and zero interceptions (six; Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow are the only others with more than three). He’d be sitting as the MVP favorite in many seasons, and while he isn’t this year due to Jackson and Josh Allen’s excellence, he is having that sort of elite season.

Goff was phenomenal in the Week 7 game in Minnesota, completing 22 of 25 passes for 280 yards and two scores, numbers that should be surprising given that he ranks inside the top five in both passer rating and yards per attempt against the blitz this season.

Given this offense’s efficiency and the increased reliance on Goff to make plays sans David Montgomery, Detroit’s QB1 is a pretty good bet most weeks, and I especially like him in this specific matchup against an aggressive defense that can be beaten with quick decisions.

Jayden Daniels, QB | WAS (at DAL)

Jayden Daniels posted the fourth regular season game all-time with at least 225 passing and 125 rushing yards, joining …

• 2019 Lamar Jackson
• 2018 Josh Allen
• 2010 Michael Vick

His ability to adjust to the speed of the NFL game on the fly has been remarkable – he’s essentially been unstoppable when at full health. He was intercepted twice against the Cowboys in Week 12, but he threw for 275 yards and two scores while adding 13.4 fantasy points with his legs.

We’ve seen Daniels grow from a signal caller who wanted to rely on his legs to one who was comfortable with a single receiver to a well-rounded asset that no team wants to see in the postseason.

I have him ranked as my QB2 this week, and I worry I might be too low.

Joshua Dobbs QB | SF (at ARI)

Joshua Dobbs is likely to get the spot start with Brock Purdy dealing with an elbow injury suffered late in Week 17’s loss to the Lions. He completed three of his four passes for 34 yards and added a seven-yard rushing score late against the Lions on Monday night, showcasing the versatility that we’ve had an interest in when he has been pressed into duty in the past.

Personally, I’m in no hurry to start him in a meaningless game, but if you’re going to stream the position, he’s as viable as any provided that the 49ers elect to play their regulars.

Dobbs averages 5.8 yards per pass for his career and had as many touchdown passes as interceptions with the Vikings last season. There is some rushing upside in his profile, but not so much that you need to move heaven and earth to get access to it.

Joe Burrow, QB | CIN (at PIT)

On top of all of the passing numbers, Burrow has a 15+ yard rush in consecutive games for the first time since Oct. 2022. That’s icing on the cake — we obviously can’t overlook just how potent he and this offense is through the air.

By now, you’re well aware of his historic run of consecutive games with 250 passing yards and three touchdowns. Take it a step further and extend his counting numbers over that stretch for a full 17-game season …

• 506 completions (NFL record: 490)
• 5,627 pass yards (NFL record: 5,477)
• 57 pass TD (NFL record: 55)

He was good for his standard 309 yards and three scores against this stingy defense in Week 13, and I can’t think of a single reason why we’d expect anything else. If you want to knock his ranking a touch for the matchup, go for it; it doesn’t matter, you’re playing him wherever you can.

Joe Flacco, QB | IND (vs. JAX)

Joe Flacco has 56 fewer pass attempts than Anthony Richardson this season – he has three more touchdown tosses and 13 more completions. The future of this franchise is obviously in Richardson’s hands more than Flacco’s, but the present is the veteran’s, and there is fantasy upside to chase given that he has thrown for 3,420 yards over his last 12 games.

There’s no motivation either way in this game, so there is the potential for key members to sit, but at the moment, I have him ranked in the same tier as fellow graybeards Aaron Rodgers and Matthew Stafford, right on the fringe of QB15 status.

Jordan Love, QB | GB (vs. CHI)

Over his past six games, Jordan Love has had five touchdown passes and zero interceptions against the blitz (previously this season: five touchdowns against five interceptions). What we might be seeing is the maturation of a young quarterback, and Packers backers should be thrilled by this development when it comes to their team’s long-term trajectory.

In the short term, this maturity could raise Love’s floor while potentially lowering his ceiling a touch if he proves hesitant to cut loose the risk/reward passes. Green Bay didn’t need much from him in the Week 11 win over Chicago (17 pass attempts), and that’s the only reason to proceed with caution this weekend.

I fully expect the Packers to come out and try to earn the NFC’s sixth seed in this spot (they need a win and a Commanders loss); while I don’t think they ultimately get there, that level of motivation gives me the green light to rank Love as a lineup lock in all formats.

Josh Allen, QB | BUF (at NE)

All reports out of Buffalo are that Josh Allen will start, but every report trails off after that. He’s going to play, and maybe that’s enough given how quickly he puts fantasy points on the board, but consider me skeptical that he plays in the second half.

Heck, I’m not sure the second quarter is a safe bet.

Allen struggled against the Patriots two weeks ago (154 passing yards with a touchdown and an interception), but this isn’t a matchup that scares me in the least. My low ranking of him is simply a bet on a lack of opportunity. Their insistence to play him also rules out getting meaningful production from Mitch Trubisky and makes projecting these pass catchers closer to calculus than arithmetic.

Justin Herbert, QB | LAC (at LV)

On Saturday, Justin Herbert officially became the NFL’s top passer through the first five seasons of a career (he opened the win over the Patriots by completing 17 of his first 21 passes for 162 yards and a pair of scores and a pair of teammate drops).

He also missed Ladd McConkey on what could (should) have been a 23-yard touchdown. Since Week 8, even in a system that can be restrictive at times, Herbert has seven top-12 finishes. I think you can go ahead and adjust that number to eight with the 10th-worst passing defense when it comes to opponent touchdown rate.

I’d love to see the rushing numbers bump up a bit (he cleared 12 yards on the ground just once in December), but with Jim Harbaugh trusting him with more weekly and a career-best yards-per-pass pace, you’re playing Herbert with confidence this week.

Kenny Pickett, QB | PHI (vs. NYG)

Kenny Pickett will likely draw a second straight start with Hurts set to sit out Week 18 due to a combination of him being in concussion protocol and the Eagles having the second seed locked up.

Pickett looked fine last week against an overmatched Cowboys team (10-of-15 for 143 yards and a touchdown), but that was with DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown dominating down the field.

It would stand to reason that all valuable Philadelphia pieces are players you want to avoid, and that would wipe Pickett off of my DFS player pool, even with a cheap price tag.

Kyler Murray, QB | ARI (vs. SF)

This season hasn’t gone nearly the way fantasy managers had hoped for Kyler Murray, and Saturday was a pretty good reflection of that.

Despite 52 opportunities (pass + rush attempts) against a reasonably vulnerable Rams defense, Murray managed just 16 fantasy points. For the season as a whole, he has more sub-12-point games (five) than games with 21+ (four), something that I would have told you was close to impossible if you gave me the facts of him completing 68.6% of his passes while averaging a career-high 7.3 yards per carry.

Despite those rate stats, it’s been the “hows” of him getting those numbers that have been the problem, and that is what scares me for 2025. His aDOT this season is a career-low 6.9 yards and, more impactful for our purposes, the rushing volume is in steady decline.

Kyler Murray, completions per rush attempt by season:

• 2020: 2.82
• 2021: 3.77
• 2022: 3.87
• 2023: 4.00
• 2024: 4.63

Murray has at least three more years on his contract, and this is the sort of usage that doesn’t reverse with age. The Marvin Harrison Jr. connection should develop with time, and Trey McBride is a special playmaker, but if we are trending four-ish carries per game as opposed to the 6.7 he averaged through his first season, we need to rethink the upside case significantly.

As for Week 18, Murray relied on his legs to produce in the Week 5 meeting with the 49ers (83 rush yards and a touchdown), something that I’m not sure sticks. The Cardinals have no motivation this week, but without a developmental QB to give snaps to on the roster, I’m projecting a full game from Murray; that’s enough to land him inside my top 10, a ranking I’m not positive he enters next season with.

Lamar Jackson, QB | BAL (vs. CLE)

Lamar Jackson’s average QB+ this season (82.9) is well above what he posted a season ago (77.1). We didn’t create that metric to be a predictive one for fantasy purposes, but what more can I tell you on the number-compiling front that you’re not already aware of?

The reigning MVP has 13 top-10 finishes this season and routinely looks downright indefensible. He has both a 20-yard run and a 40-yard completion in three of his past four games. The Browns lead the league in pressure rate (41.3% of dropbacks), and I’m not sure that’s a positive against Baltimore.

If you have Jackson, you’re playing him and are thrilled that he has the motive to go out and dominate for another week. If you’re facing him — you’re spending your weeknights praying to the fantasy gods for leniency.

Mac Jones, QB | JAX (at IND)

If this was a fully functional Jaguars offense that Mac Jones had access to (Christian Kirk and Evan Engram), we’d have to have a serious conversation about his potential to project as a top-12 option this week.

That’s obviously not the case, however, and that is why I can get there with him, even in a matchup against a defense that defends the run better than the pass.

Jones hasn’t thrown an interception in consecutive starts and has multiple TD passes in three of his past five. I’m not painting this guy as an ace QB or anything as much as I’m laying the foundation to once again be high on this offensive group for 2025. Despite very, very ordinary metrics across the board, Jones has shown some fantasy promise.

If you’re investing in this offense in DFS this weekend, it’s likely on Brian Thomas Jr. as a stand-alone piece, and I think that’s fine. There’s no reason to take on the risk that comes with Jones for an upside case that isn’t overly enticing.

Mason Rudolph, QB | TEN (vs. HOU)

The on-field target share distribution with Mason Rudolph under center is about as split as it can be, and that’s a pain for fantasy managers:

• Calvin Ridley: 23.6%
• Josh Whyle: 25%
• Chig Okonkwo: 23.4%
• Tyjae Spears: 23.4%

It’s encouraging for Rudolph’s future in the NFL, as a backup signal caller who can spread the ball around and execute a plan is exciting to most franchises, but in terms of holding any meaningful value in our game, this profile is not that.

Matthew Stafford, QB | LAR (vs. SEA)

Stafford won’t play as HC Sean McVay is giving him rest (Jimmy Garoppolo is starting in his place), but let’s look at this game as if he were playing.

The Rams hung 44 points on the Bills in a Week 14 upset victory and looked unstoppable in the process. Matthew Stafford averaged 10.7 yards per pass, Kyren Williams scored twice, and the healthy Rams were a force to be reckoned with.

The latter might still be true, but the fantasy numbers wouldn’t reflect it — this offense has scored just 44 points total in the three weeks since that masterpiece. Over that run, just one of Stafford’s 78 passes have resulted in a touchdown, a brutal stretch at the worst possible time for fantasy managers.

Would it have rebounded this week?

Stafford carved up the Patriots in New England in Week 11, but outside of that, his top four games have either come at home or against these Seahawks (Week 9: 298 passing yards with two scores). That performance against Seattle was even more impressive when you recall that he lost Puka Nacua to an early ejection, forcing him into distributing one-third of his targets to either Demarcus Robinson or Tyler Johnson that afternoon.

In theory, all of that sounds good, but I would have worried about this spot. Yes, he overcame this matchup two months ago, though that would have been just a snapshot as to what is most likely to happen. Throughout the 16-game sample of 2024, Stafford has told us that he doesn’t like pressure.

Whether it is that he’s been a tick slow on the fast read, he’s aborting plays a little early — whatever factor you want to blame it on, his rates when feeling the heat are a major concern against a top-five pressure unit in the league.

Matthew Stafford, pressure stats with Rams by season:

• 2021: 75.0 passer rating, 8.0 yards/attempt, and 5.8% TD rate
• 2022: 69.6 passer rating, 5.8 yards/attempt, and 2.7% TD rate
• 2023: 75.7 passer rating, 6.2 yards/attempt, and 5.8% TD rate
• 2024: 51.6 passer rating, 5.6 yards/attempt, and 1.4% TD rate

Stafford would have qualified as a viable play this weekend, but I would have been careful about blindly copy-pasting in his Week 9 numbers. This is a below-average team in pass rate over expectation and might be happy to play in the mud this weekend — it might work for them (I’ll be picking the Rams to win), but the risk would have been significant for those banking on Stafford.

Michael Penix Jr., QB | ATL (vs. CAR)

Michael Penix Jr. has looked the part of a future fantasy asset, but we aren’t there just yet. Despite showing some nice poise and patience through two starts, he finished safely outside of the top 20 at the position in both outings.

Fantasy managers should love his willingness to weigh down his top option with targets, as that is an easy box to check and a way to elevate your fantasy floor. There’s a fantasy skill set in his profile, but we just aren’t there yet.

Patrick Mahomes, QB | KC (at DEN)

It’s almost eerie how similar, despite a variety of injuries and moving pieces, Patrick Mahomes’ stat line looks to what he did last regular season (2023 is on top, 2024 is below):

With Xavier Worthy coming on strong late in the season and Hollywood Brown nearing full strength, there’s plenty to like about Mahomes’ prospects in postseason formats. Add in Rashee Rice returning to action and I’d imagine there will be little hesitation in going back to No. 15 next season when the draft season is here.

As for Week 18, the Chiefs have everything locked up and no reason to overextend a nucleus of skill position players who have essentially all been banged up at one point or another this season.

Mahomes was ordinary in the first meeting with the Broncos (28-of-42 for 266 yards and a touchdown), numbers that he’ll have a hard time repeating given the likelihood that he doesn’t play anything close to a full 60 minutes.

I won’t have him ranked as a Tier 1 option at the position next season like I did entering this season, but with the best pass-catching core he’s ever had, I’m viewing 4,000 yards through the air and 30 total touchdowns as something of a floor – that’s not something many can claim.

Russell Wilson, QB | PIT (vs. CIN)

In George Pickens’ return, Russell Wilson couldn’t find a rhythm downfield. He went just 1-of-6 on deep throws (his lowest such completion percentage of the season) and threw an interception (his first such pick since Week 10).

I’m willing to write off that statistical anomaly with Pickens working his way back to strength, and I think we see it correct itself against a Bengals defense that creates pressure at the eighth-lowest rate in the league.

No, I’m not signing up for another 414 yards with three touchdowns, the stat line Wilson put on Cincinnati back in Week 13, but a top-10 performance is a safe projection in a critical game against one of the few teams that could force Pittsburgh to speed up.

Sam Darnold, QB | MIN (at DET)

I didn’t think we’d be at this point where I’d have Sam Darnold ranked as a top-five quarterback, but here we are.

This season, he has 12 games with multiple touchdown passes, a number that only Joe Burrow (13) has topped. He’s been consistently remarkable, and he’s not just riding the coattails of Justin Jefferson — Jordan Addison is trending in the right direction and Jalen Nailor has seven TDs this season (six more than he previously had on his NFL résumé before 2024).

Darnold completed 81.5% of his passes in Week 7 against a healthy version of this Lions defense, something that is far from the case right now. He’s been a top 10 signal caller in five of his past seven games, and I would genuinely be surprised if he didn’t add to that total in the final game of the 2024 regular season.

Spencer Rattler, QB | NO (at TB)

Spencer Rattler has completed 56% of his passes just once this season and has two more multi-interception games than he has multi-TD games. I’m not sure how much of his struggles we can put directly on him, but fantasy box scores don’t ask questions when it comes to who is to blame.

The Saints simply lack viable playmakers at every offensive level right now, and Rattler isn’t currently the type of elevating talent that can bring a below-average supporting cast into fantasy relevance.

If you’re not considering a single Saint, you’re a happier person as a result.

Tua Tagovailoa, QB | MIA (at NYJ)

Tua Tagovailoa’s status is uncertain for this week, but I’m comfortable enough with what he has put on film this year to say that he fits the “if he plays for his team, he plays for your fantasy team” mantra.

Tagovailoa has five top-10 finishes this season, one of which came in Week 14 against the Jets (QB5 with 331 passing yards and a pair of touchdowns). It’s not yet clear whether the Dolphins will have Jaylen Waddle back, but taking on a defense that ranks 18th in terms of limiting YAC is a good spot for this quick-release offense, no matter the status of its WR2.

I have a spot tucked just inside of my top 12 for Tagovailoa should we get news that he is cleared ahead of the week kicking off.

Tyler Huntley, QB | MIA (at NYJ)

Tyler Huntley averaged 8.7 yards per pass and had one touchdown on 26 attempts against the Browns on Sunday — in his first 66 passes this season, he averaged 5.7 yards per pass and had one touchdown.

He posted a strong effort last week, and while the Jets’ defense is taking on water, I’m not ready to label Huntley as a viable asset should he get the call for Tua Tagovailoa (hip) again in the season finale.

Week 18 Fantasy Football Running Backs

Aaron Jones, RB | MIN (at DET)

Aaron Jones suffered a quad injury last week, and while he is still expected to suit up, it’s a situation that at least deserves your attention. If you want to fully protect yourself against a late scratch, Cam Akers is the handcuff, though I’d be tempted to think that, in this event, the Vikings heap more responsibilities onto Sam Darnold than asking Akers to do his best Jones impression.

Jones has multiple receptions in six straight and has seen at least four passes thrown his way in four of those games. His versatility is being used by Kevin O’Connell, and we love to see it, especially when the splash plays on the ground have disappeared (five straight games without a rush gaining more than 15 yards).

I’d be awfully surprised if we got the 17-touch, 116-yard, one-touchdown showing that we got from Jones against the Lions back in Week 7 again, but 15-ish touches with the potential for a nice receiving game very much makes for a logical projection this week so long as he can avoid a setback.

I like Detroit to win (and cover) this game, something that hurts Jones’ projection a bit but doesn’t knock him outside of my RB2 tier.

Alexander Mattison, RB | LV (vs. LAC)

Alexander Mattison last averaged 4.0 yards per carry in 2020 while with the Vikings, so his 3.2 mark this season shouldn’t be overly surprising.

He hasn’t had a 15-yard carry since September, and the fact that this team was willing to flip Ameer Abdullah from a third-down specialist to a full-blown bellcow instead of handing the keys to Mattison should be all you need to see to fade.

I’m not in a hurry to play any Raiders outside of Brock Bowers, and I don’t make a habit of playing fringe options against the Chargers — when both of those instances occur in a single game, there really isn’t a decision to be made.

Alvin Kamara, RB | NO (at TB)

Alvin Kamara has had a highly productive season (nine top-15 finishes) and is currently sitting at 1.2% over expectation for the year, his best mark since 2021. But the groin injury that has cost him time recently certainly has the potential to hold him out this week, thus leaving you without a big part of your regular-season run in your biggest matchup of the year.

Kamara will turn 30 years old in July, and while the pass-catching skills have aged well, I continue to think that we are on borrowed time with him as a weekly asset. The rushing efficiency is fleeting, to say the least (a career-high 20.2% of his carries have failed to gain yardage this season). If Kendre Miller can provide this franchise with confidence that he can be a two-down back, we could be looking at a hit-and-miss RB in an average offense that relies on check-down passes.

That’s not to say Kamara won’t be usable in 2025 (the Saints have an out if they want it in his backloaded contract), but I think there’s a good chance his ADP reflects more name value than projectable production this offseason.

Ameer Abdullah, RB | LV (vs. LAC)

Ameer Abdullah has three straight top-15 finishes at the position and is coming off the first 100-yard rushing game of his career. He left last week’s win over the Saints early with a foot injury, and that’s something to be tracked, but as of now, I’m penciling him in for the lead role.

Leaders in percentage of carries gaining 5+ yards, Weeks 16-17 (min. 25 carries):

1. Abdullah: 59.3%
2. Derrick Henry: 52.9%
3. Jahmyr Gibbs: 51.2%
4. De’Von Achane: 48.1%

The value of that role, of course, can be debated. The Chargers are in a spot where they want to win and they own the eighth-best EPA rush defense.

Abdullah being penciled in for 12+ carries and the primary role in the passing game is enough to justify starting him, you just need to be aware that banking on a repeat of Week 17 is unlikely.

Audric Estimé, RB | DEN (vs. KC)

I think there’s a world in which Audric Estimé is a rosterable handcuff next season, but we can deal with that when we get there — he doesn’t matter right now. He led the Broncos with 53 rushing yards (14 carries) in the Week 10 loss at Arrowhead, though weekly production/role has yet to prove sticky in Sean Payton’s offense this season.

Estimé is being used ahead of Javonte Williams on the ground but without the sort of splash-play potential that Jaleel McLaughlin has flashed regularly. When this game kicks off, we will be more than two months removed from the rookie’s last run that gained more than 10 yards, and if the volume is going to be an obstacle, the lack of chunk gains is damning.

I anticipate this backfield being more straightforward in 2025 than it has been at any point this season, and that means not losing track of Estimé, even after a very underwhelming first season. Betting on this offense is something I’m not going to hesitate to do in the mid to late rounds this summer, and Estimé is a part of that.

Bijan Robinson, RB | ATL (vs. CAR)

Bijan Robinson has four games this season with multiple rushing TD, tied for the most in a season in Falcons history. He’s reached 20 touches in five straight games and is finally being used in the fashion that we’ve been begging for.

Enjoy the ride — it’s going to be expensive to get into the Robinson business again next season.

We need a greater sample before reading too far into these splits, but it’s never too early to start looking:

• Desmond Ridder under center: 2.71 yards per carry before contact
• Kirk Cousins under center: 2.99 yards per carry before contact
• Michael Penix Jr. under center: 3.13 yards per carry before contact

We are looking at a player who was taken with the eighth pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, and I think it’s plenty reasonable to think he goes higher than that in fantasy drafts for the foreseeable future. His shifty nature in space and volume role on the ground puts him on a Christian McCaffrey-like path, a name that I use rarely when it comes to comparing usage.

Blake Corum, RB | LAR (vs. SEA)

Blake Corum gets his drive or two a game, and that’s cute. It’s also infuriating for those holding Kyren Williams’ bags, but that’s all it is. It’s just a wrinkle, not a feature.

The rookie has posted a sub-20% snap share in four consecutive games. That’s been the case for the bulk of the season, outside of an outlier Week 13 win against the Saints in which he was on the field for 32.7% of the Rams’ plays.

Corum has yet to clear eight touches in a game this year. While holding a handcuff was a logical strategy up to this point, you’re in a go-for-it mode now. You don’t need to cut ties with Corum, but if you’re trying to maximize the number of Flex options you have in a do-or-die situation, I’d much rather use that roster spot for a home-run-hitting receiver or a secondary RB where there are questions about the starter.

As things stand right now, we have no reason to think that Williams will see anything less than his standard workload this week, which means that Corum doesn’t project as a usable piece.

Braelon Allen, RB | NYJ (vs. MIA)

Braelon Allen is rarely getting 10 touches in this Jets offense, and I fear that is going to be the norm not just for this game but moving forward.

His 0.77 PPR points per touch this season don’t jump off the screen, but we don’t have nearly enough of a sample to make sweeping claims. It appears that Aaron Rodgers trusts Breece Hall; that has me projecting Allen as nothing more than an average handcuff should the four-time MVP stay in town.

Breece Hall, RB | NYJ (vs. MIA)

Breece Hall’s points per touch are down 7.8% from a season ago, clearly a disappointment based on expectations. He missed the first game against the Dolphins and yet the Jets relied on the ground game, so there is hope for volume in this spot. In the Week 14 meeting, Brealon Allen and Isaiah Davis combined for …

• 21 carries
• 83 rushing yards
• One TD
• 28.2% target share

If Hall can walk into 70% of that role, we are looking at a top-12 running back. I’m not that optimistic, but I do think he gets the lion’s share of the work this week, and that lands him as a starter in all formats.

Brian Robinson Jr., RB | WAS (at DAL)

Brian Robinson Jr. came out of the gates flying this season, ranking as the 14th most valuable running back (total PPR points) through the first four weeks. Since then, however, Robinson has only one finish as RB14 or better, struggling with health and inefficiency in the process (44.2% below expectations over the past three weeks).

The Commanders want to win this game, but I think they are plenty happy to put the ball in Jayden Daniels’ hands and take their chances. In Week 12 against Dallas, Washington’s running backs combined for 57 yards on 17 carries, and that’s not going to cut it.

Robinson has multiple receptions in three straight games; that is his path to overachieving. We saw some growth in his skill set last season, but it largely has vanished this season. I think we are looking at 15 carries and a few targets, a role in a plus matchup that slides Robinson into my RB2 tier, even given the recent struggles.

Bucky Irving, RB | TB (vs. NO)

Bucky Irving has three straight games with 15+ carries and multiple catches — the only thing I find myself thinking following every Tampa Bay game is “Why did they not give him the ball even more?”

Last week, he joined Saquon Barkley as the only player this season with BOTH a 30+ yard run and 30+ yard reception in multiple games. Being on that sort of shortlist is impressive, and he looks the part with each passing week.

The Saints’ rush defense ranks 30th in both EPA and success rate — is it possible that we haven’t seen his best? You’re playing Irving anywhere you can and loving the ability to do so. He’s going to be an expensive back this summer, and I’m tempted to pay whatever price the market determines is acceptable.

I love what Irving brings to the table, and that feeling is only magnified when the Bucs are a heavy favorite, something that caps Rachaad White’s snaps.

Chase Brown, RB | CIN (at PIT)

Chase Brown did nothing flashy on Sunday (his longest gain was 11 yards), and yet, the Bengals value what he brings to the table at such a level that they still gave him 24 opportunities (20 carries and four receptions).

The good backs are featured when the game script works in their favor while the great ones are force-fed the ball by their team.

Brown is trending toward the latter. He’s battling an ankle injury, and that requires us to track him as the week wears on, though all reporting out of Cincinnati seems to be underlined with optimism. Their bell cow has at least three catches and 12 carries in each of his past eight games, matching Bijan Robinson for the longest such streak this season, and he’s parlayed that into eight straight top-24 finishes at the position.

He was good for 100 scrimmage yards and a touchdown in the first meeting with the Steelers (Week 13), and he should have every opportunity to replicate that production on Saturday.

Chuba Hubbard, RB | CAR (at ATL)

It was discovered on Friday that Chuba Hubbard is dealing with a Grade 2 calf strain. With nothing to gain, the team has elected to shut him down.

It’s been a phenomenal season for the 25-year-old back. While he won’t have a chance to finish things, he did enough to earn a raise in addition to our trust in 2025. This season, Hubbard posted seven top-10 PPR finishes, blending volume (19.5 touches per game) with efficiency (4.8 yards per carry and a 79.6% catch rate) and giving Bryce Young a level of balance that allowed him to show signs of upside.

With Jonathon Brooks sidelined for the foreseeable future, Hubbard will enter next season with a clear feature role and thus deserving of a top-20 ranking at the minimum.

I’m going to like him more than that due to my liking of this offense’s upside. I’m mentally prepared to be watching plenty of Panthers games next fall.

D’Andre Swift, RB | CHI (at GB)

D’Andre Swift has the lead role in this backfield without much competition, but because of the game scripts, he’s reached 15 carries just once in his past seven games. There is no denying that we are in danger of seeing that risk extend through this week with the Packers playing for seeding and the Bears playing for — well, nothing.

Swift had three top-10 finishes in succession earlier this season (Week 4-6), and I’m cautiously optimistic that we can see more spikes in 2025 as Caleb Williams continues to grow.

In Week 11, Swift posted 84 yards against the Packers. He added a rushing touchdown, and that allowed him to post a nice showing — remove the touchdown points and you’re right around 10 PPR points, something that I think makes for a better projection than the 16.4 he put on the board in the first meeting.

Derrick Henry, RB | BAL (vs. CLE)

If there’s a week for a true Derrick Henry explosion spot, this could be it. The Browns allow the fourth-most yards after contact per carry on the ground this season and rushing touchdowns at the fourth-highest rate.

Henry had 73 rushing yards and a touchdown on 11 carries in the first game with Cleveland (Week 8), an efficient performance that was undone a bit by a game script that worked against him.

I’m not worried about such limitations this week, and that has me giving him a great chance to record his sixth top-five finish of the season.

Getting a late peak from Henry is nothing new. He finished the 2022 regular season with four straight games north of 125 scrimmage yards and dismantled the Jaguars for 153 yards and a score on the ground in Week 18 last season.

Devin Singletary, RB | NYG (at PHI)

Devin Singletary’s role alone is hardly rosterable in any situation, and when you consider that it comes behind a weak offensive line with no real (sustainable) passing game, he’s not someone who should be even close to your radar.

New York’s secondary back hasn’t reached 10 carries in a game since September, and the only way for me to feel even remotely good about any running back in these bottom-of-the-barrel offenses is extreme and reliable volume.

De’Von Achane, RB | MIA (at NYJ)

De’Von Achane might be as quarterback-dependent of a running back as there is in the NFL:

• With Tua Tagovailoa: 18.6% production over expectation, 1.2 points per touch, and 24.1% on-field target share
• With Tyler Huntley: 23.1% production under expectation, 0.5 points per touch, and 11.5% on-field target share

With Huntley under center, Achane doesn’t have a red-zone target, sees his aDOT more than triple, and faces a loaded box more often. He’s too talented to bench, but if this is the Huntley show again, you’re watching with your eyes closed.

If Tagovailoa is cleared to play, you should have zero concerns about gobbling up additional shares in addition to what you already hold in season-long formats. The Dolphins went with a pass-heavy script in the first meeting with the Jets (Week 14), which is just fine if QB1 is active.

Gus Edwards, RB | LAC (at LV)

Gus Edwards did not play last week with an ankle injury, and I’m not sure the Chargers will rush him back (3.6 yards per carry this season).

Edwards had a weird 43-yard carry late in Week 16 against the Broncos. Remove that, and we are looking at a player averaging 3.2 ypc with nearly as many targets (five) as receiving yards (six).

Touchdowns were the driving force behind Edwards’ value last season, and while it was risky to bank on last season, he was playing for a potent offense.

These Chargers can score if called upon, but that’s not their design, and in a committee situation, Edwards’ health is not something I’m tracking closely this week.

You can find better options.

Isiah Pacheco, RB | KC (at DEN)

Isiah Pacheco is very clearly being managed, and I highly doubt that a smart organization like the Chiefs relents on that plan in a meaningless Week 18 game.

Isiah Pacheco’s usage since his return:

• Week 14: 47.7% snap share and 16 touches
• Week 15: 37.3% snap share and 14 touches
• Week 16: 32.9% snap share and 10 touches
• Week 17: 34.5% snap share and six touches

I think there may be a nice buying window for Pacheco in playoff-based fantasy leagues, and I’d encourage you to go that route — unless you play in such a league with me. If that’s the case, carry on.

Isaac Guerendo, RB | SF (at ARI)

Issac Guerendo was able to suit up on Monday night, and as expected, was the only 49ers running back to get handed the ball. He finished with nine carries for 34 yards, but a 40-yard catch on a perfect throw from Brock Purdy helped save the day (four catches for 65 yards).

Christian McCaffrey is obviously the man in town, but I like what I’ve seen from Guerendo this season, and at the very least, he should be a prioritized handcuff in 2025.

Jordan Mason ran for 89 yards on 14 carries in Week 5 against the Cardinals, a level of production that I think is possible for Guerendo this week. The quality of his touches is currently a question mark with Purdy banged up, but I think the sheer volume should be enough to get him into your lineup, with the name under center further dictating the upside case.

Jahmyr Gibbs, RB | DET (vs. MIN)

Jahmyr Gibbs is now one touchdown away from tying the franchise record for total TDs in a season (Jamaal Williams and Barry Sanders currently hold the mark with 17). Gibbs’ 30-yard score on Monday night was just a snapshot of what he can do — the vision, the cut, the speed.

With David Montgomery out, we are at least getting the pleasure of seeing what an unleashed version of Gibbs looks like — and it looks like maybe the best RB in the sport.

Gibbs had no trouble punishing this Minnesota defense in Week 7 (160 yards and two touchdowns), a game in which Montgomery was fully healthy. Detroit needs to play defense with its offense these days, and while Gibbs isn’t a traditional grinding back, the shortcomings of the Lions’ defense make touch counts like what we saw last week (22) the norm more than the exception.

Jaleel McLaughlin, RB | DEN (vs. KC)

This is why you pay attention to trends all season long, even if your matchups are meaningless — breadcrumbs. Jaleel McLaughlin has continued to look like the best back Denver has on its roster, and while the snap share isn’t reflecting that, everything else does.

Broncos RBs production, Week 17:

• Javonte Williams: 36.7% snap share and zero carries
• Audric Estimé: 30% snap share and 0% of carries gained 10+ yards
• Jaleel McLaughlin: 23.3% snap share and 40% of carries gained 10+ yards

That’s right. In a win-and-in situation, Denver’s RB leader in snaps played wasn’t trusted with a single carry while the third man on the totem pole was making chunk plays left and right.

The second-year back out of Youngstown State gained yardage on all 10 of his totes last week and looks like a big play waiting to happen every time he is handed the ball. I never want to paint with a broad brush at this point, but McLaughlin is very likely to be on my list of players to whom I have the highest exposure in 2025.

Williams is playing out the final year of his contract, and I’ve got confidence that his passing-game usage can be absorbed by McLaughlin (86.9% career catch rate). He’s not likely to be the second coming of Alvin Kamara, but we know that Sean Payton’s offense can support a very strong fantasy backfield. With the pieces seemingly falling into place, I’m going to be investing earlier than most find comfortable here.

Before we get to those glory days, however, we have to deal with one more week of this nonsensical three-way committee that renders all parties unreliable. McLaughlin, for maybe the seventh straight game, will be my highest-ranked Bronco RB. That’s enough to warrant Flex conversation in what is always a tough-to-judge Week 18.

James Conner, RB | ARI (vs. SF)

James Conner entered Week 17 banged up and never returned to action (knee) after exiting in the first half of Saturday’s loss in Los Angeles. Postgame reporting suggested that the veteran back was able and willing to return to the game while the coaching staff ruled against it (Michael Carter finished with 70 yards on 13 carries).

If this were in the middle of the season, I’d be fine betting on an experienced back like this who knows his body. But at this point in a lost season, I believe that the cautious approach we saw last week repeats this week.

Conner has over 1,600 touches for his career, and that’s a concern. But with volume still in his favor and him posting his best points-per-touch season since 2021, there’s reason to think that he’s a viable option entering 2025.

I’m pessimistic that we get much in the way of value this weekend, but he is one of the long-in-the-tooth RBs that I’ll be willing to have shares of next year.

James Cook, RB | BUF (at NE)

James Cook entered 2024 with four rushing touchdowns — he now has three separate three-game stretches this season in which he’s run for four scores. Cook has been nothing short of great this season, and it would seem that he’s mastered the art of running next to Josh Allen.

Through 17 weeks this season, his yards per carry before first contact is up 20.7% from a season ago, a sign that he is making strong reads. Cook dominated the Patriots in Week 16 (126 yards and two scores on 14 touches), and I’d be thrilled about his prospects to repeat this week if I was sold that he’d be used in typical fashion, but I’m not.

The Bills have nothing to play for, and given this franchise’s history, I suspect that they will take no risks when it comes to the health of their primary players heading into the postseason.

Javonte Williams, RB | DEN (vs. KC)

At this point, it’s clear that the Broncos are sold on a three-headed committee. Williams has led the backfield in snap share in consecutive games, and he has a whopping 13 touches total to show for it.

Over the past month, the pending free agent has more catches (11) than rush attempts (10), putting him in a tough spot to be consistent. There are spots where a PPR manager can identify that role as advantageous due to the projected game script, something that I don’t think will be the case this week given the Chiefs’ lack of motivation.

Jaleel McLaughlin has passed the statistical and eye tests that no one else in this backfield has, and he projects as the better back in a positive game script if not the better option in all scenarios. Williams is only 24 years old, and while we are now looking at two straight inefficient seasons, his growth as a pass catcher and experience as a bell cow could result in a 2025 bounce-back campaign — but not in Denver and not likely this weekend.

McLaughlin is going to be a heavy stance for me heading into next season and is my preferred Bronco back this week. That said, playing any of them this week, even in a game that they need, is risky. Williams’ PPR role can get him into an ugly Flex discussion but not with much confidence.

Jaylen Warren, RB | PIT (vs. CIN)

Jaylen Warren’s usage is trending up, and he’s cleared PPR fantasy expectations by over 5% in five of his past seven games.

That’s encouraging; this could be a great spot to continue this late-season breakout if you believe that the Bengals are going to put points on the board early. Warren is the only player to have 45 rushing yards and five receptions in each of his past two games, a role that almost lands you into RB2 status by itself.

The red-zone usage has my eye on Warren. The backup back has six touches inside the 20-yard line over Pittsburgh’s past two games, a nice jump forward for a player who had four such touches in his previous five. Najee Harris has six such touches over that stretch as well, so it’s not as if the high-value touches are all for Warren, but his piece of that pie is certainly growing.

I like the Steelers in this game, and that has me trending toward Harris as the leader of this backfield. That said, I think we have 30 PPR points to distribute, and the pendulum could very much swing in Warren’s favor should Cincinnati land the first body blow.

Jaylen Wright, RB | MIA (at NYJ)

It’s fair to question how Jaylen Wright has been used this season (65 touches), but that’s not going to change anything. I’m of the belief that we could see him carve out a Jaylen Warren-like role next season, but that’s a projection to battle in June. He’s not helping you win a title over the next few weeks unless Miami elects to call his number if/when mathematically eliminated from postseason contention.

Jerome Ford, CLE (at BAL)

The broadcast over the weekend seemed to suggest that Jerome Ford’s ankle sprain was minor in nature, but the team elected to take a cautious approach and limited his second-half usage.

I’m not a doctor, and I don’t play one on TV, but for a backfield that is in flux due to Nick Chubb’s injury and with Ford on a team-friendly deal for next season, why extend him to maybe impact a game that means nothing to them?

If Ford is cleared, I’d value his versatility in this specific matchup in a low-end Flex sort of way. D’Onta Foreman has soaked up some of the red-zone usage since Chubb was lost, and he’d replace Ford in my rankings should he be named the starter.

In terms of this matchup, I prefer Ford’s skill set. Foreman, for his career, averages 15.7 carries per catch, a lack of versatility that is a red flag given the projected game script in hand this week. That said, if he moves atop this depth chart, it means that Ford is out and that the touch competition is minimal.

If you have both of Cleveland’s backs, I think you’re going to have one Flex option on your hands by the time the final injury report is released.

Joe Mixon, RB | HOU (at TEN)

The Ravens were all over Joe Mixon on Christmas Day (nine carries for 26 yards), a disaster for fantasy managers who have used this strong season as a way to vault to the top of their standings.

That makes it three straight games without a touchdown for Mixon, struggles that are highlighted even more by him averaging just 3.0 yards per carry over that stretch (39.8% production under expectation).

The Texans could always opt to manage their veteran back, but it’s not my day to run the team. If we don’t get word that a limited role is likely, I think you’re fine to plug Mixon in as an RB2. He earned a 19.4% target share in the first meeting with the Titans (Week 12) and has recorded multiple red-zone touches in not one, not two, but 11 straight games.

I have my concerns about Mixon for next season, but he’s made it this far. If he’s set to assume his standard role this week, I think you plug him in.

Jonathan Taylor, RB | IND (vs. JAX)

Jonathan Taylor is absolutely cooking at the perfect time for fantasy managers. He can become the seventh player ever with 125 rush yards and multiple rush TD in three straight games, joining:

• Chris Johnson (2009)
• Larry Johnson (2005)
• Clinton Portis (2003)
• Ricky Williams (2002)
• Mike Anderson (2000)
• Earl Campbell (1980)

In those two games, he’s run for a cool 343 yards and five scores. The late-season peak is great to see, and the team is clearly confident in his health (22+ carries in four straight) — we have no reason to doubt his usage this week. Neither the Colts nor the Jags have anything to play for, making anything possible in terms of how touches are distributed. But betting against Taylor is a losing wager right now, especially when facing the 10th-worst run defense by success rate.

Josh Jacobs, RB | GB (vs. CHI)

Josh Jacobs has a rushing score in seven straight games, tying Paul Hornung’s franchise record. If the Packers have their way, he will break that record in a big way on Sunday. This game certainly won’t be the featured NFC North battle of the week, but the difference between being the sixth and the seventh seed is significant, so I think we see what we’ve seen from the Packers all season long – a lot of Jacobs early and often.

Through 17 weeks, Jacobs is the only player with 80+ first-quarter carries … he has 102. He racked up 134 yards and a touchdown on 22 touches in the first meeting with the Bears and is coming off of a Week 17 effort in which he gained yardage on a season-best 94.1% of his carries.

Jacobs is a real threat to break the DFS main slate, and you should feel great about having redraft exposure if you still have games to play on that end.

Justice Hill, RB | BAL (vs. CLE)

Justice Hill (concussion) was inactive last week and will not play this week. If he were playing, it wouldn’t have projected as the type of game in which his specific skill set would have been meaningfully used.

For the season, he has more targets (51) than rush attempts (47), and that would have held value in the right game script; it’s just not something I see happening at home with the opportunity to win the division.

Derrick Henry is fully healthy and should be leaned on heavily this weekend. When that’s the case, there is never much of an avenue for Hill to get his hands on the ball.

Kareem Hunt, RB | KC (at DEN)

As mentioned, the Chiefs are locked into the AFC’s top seed, and that means we could see the usage spread out all over the place to irregular names.

Kareem Hunt has run for a score and is operating as the head of a committee with Isiah Pacheco right now, something that feels more like a way to get to the finish line of the regular season than it does a sustainable plan for the NFL’s second season.

With Pacheco back in the mix, Hunt is averaging 10.2 touches per game. I view that as a ceiling case, and that’s not the type of ceiling I make a habit of investing in.

Hunt’s snap share, last four games:

• Week 14 at Chargers: 30.8%
• Week 15 at Browns: 37.3%
• Week 16 vs. Texans: 45.7%
• Week 17 at Steelers: 48.3%

Kansas City struggled to move the ball on the ground in the first meeting with Denver (Hunt: 14 carries for 35 yards), making this a tough backfield to feel good about with backups likely to be sprinkled in all around them.

I’m not starting either K.C. RB if I can help it and, realistically, I’m fading the NFL’s best team in all regards this weekend.

Kendre Miller, RB | NO (at TB)

Kendre Miller is in concussion protocol, and while there is a chance he clears in time, it shouldn’t impact your Week 18 decision-making in a significant way.

Miller has shown limited versatility in his limited NFL sample size and doesn’t have a 20-yard gain on 80 career rush attempts. This is an offense that is as inept as any in the league at this point in the season, and I don’t see that changing against a highly driven Buccaneers team.

The Saints brought in Clyde Edwards-Helaire ahead of Week 16, giving them a proven NFL player to further subtract from the value of Miller should he be cleared in time for this game. I’m not sure that the running game in New Orleans holds any value, and I’m even less confident in my ability to accurately assign the touch distributions should Miller be healthy.

You’re avoiding this offense at all costs, it really is that simple.

Kenneth Walker III, RB | SEA (at LAR)

The Seahawks placed Kenneth Walker III (ankle) on injured reserve last week, ending a season that, in my opinion, has underwhelmed.

After clearing 18 PPR points in four of the first seven weeks this season, Walker didn’t reach 15 PPR points in a single game again. After that initial surge, his fantasy production was 29.6% below expectation as he struggled to generate the splash plays that we’ve come to associate with him.

Walker’s rush rates by season:

• 2022: 43.9% of carries vs. loaded box and 12.7% of carries gained 10+ yards
• 2023: 43.4% of carries vs. loaded box and 11% of carries gained 10+ yards
• 2024: 33.3% of carries vs. loaded box and 8.5% of carries gained 10+ yards

These rates scare me, but they don’t terrify me the way they would if Zach Charbonnet seized the opportunity (remove one outlier carry, and his yards per carry drops 9.3% down to 3.8 this season).

I’m not going to go as far as to say that I’m encouraged by 2024, but the usage in a passing game that is trending toward conservative with Jaxon Smith-Njigba ascending has me optimistic.

Walker’s pass-catching rates by season:

2022: 11.9% on-field target share and a 2.7% red-zone target rate
2023: 15.2% on-field target share and a 13% red-zone target rate
2024: 20.2% on-field target share and a 30.8% red-zone target rate

With Geno Smith under center for another year, I think we can pencil in a healthy version of Walker as the RB1 in Seattle and a weekly fantasy lineup lock – you just invest with eyes wide open to the fact that Walker has missed multiple games in all three of his NFL seasons.

Kimani Vidal, RB | LAC (at LV)

Kimani Vidal has yet to clear eight touches in a game this season, and given the number of injuries that have taken place in this backfield, it’s clear that the team doesn’t intend to give this sixth-round pick much runway this season.

Chargers RBs Week 17 participation rates:

• J.K. Dobbins: 53.2% snap share and 14.1 expected points
• Hassan Haskins: 35.1% snap share and 5.6 expected points
• Vidal: 11.7% snap share and 5.3 expected points

We will need to see more versatility from Vidal (held without a reception in three of nine appearances) before assuming that he is a rosterable player next season, but this is a good team with a need for backfield stability – the situation could well present itself for Vidal to be a name of note for 2025.

Kyren Williams, RB | LAR (vs. SEA)

Over the past 445 days, Kyren Williams has played in 23 regular season games; only once over that stretch did he finish a contest without either 20+ touches or a rushing touchdown.

He didn’t do much with a lot on the ground in the Week 9 meeting with the Seahawks (22 carries for 69 yards and no scores), but you take that volume and take your chances. The Seahawks are a below-average run defense in terms of yards allowed both before and after contact, making them vulnerable to high-volume backs.

Williams might not have a 20-yard run since Thanksgiving, but he’s one of the few who can volume his way past flaws. I’m generally against betting on a profile like this – that’s not the case here. You’re locking in Williams this week, and for those looking ahead to 2025, I see no reason to not project another 1,100+ rushing yards and 14+ touchdowns next season.

Miles Sanders, RB | CAR (at ATL)

Miles Sanders (ankle) averaged 3.3 yards per carry last season and wasn’t efficient this year in his limited work before landing on IR (3.7 yards per carry on 38 carries) ahead of Week 11.

Chuba Hubbard vacates plenty of volume, but how valuable is this role really? Hubbard has produced below expectations on a per-touch basis, and if the touch distribution is unknown, assigning value to any backup RB is a risk I’m not willing to take.

The scoring equity is limited in this Carolina offense as is, and that certainly doesn’t change when playing a motivated Falcons team looking to win the division. Sanders has scored just twice on 215 touches with the franchise; if he can’t add to that total, you’re swimming upstream to mine top-30 value from anyone in this backfield.

Najee Harris, RB | PIT (vs. CIN)

I don’t mean to oversimplify, but who wins this game?

• Najee Harris, production vs. expectations in wins: -1.2%
• Najee Harris, production vs. expectations in losses: -27.8%

The Steelers won the first meeting; Harris was good for 30.3% production over expectation thanks to catching all six of his targets and adding a rushing score. Thanks to Pittsburgh controlling that game, their RB1 posted a season-high in expected points (19.1).

If that is how you see this game playing out, Harris is an RB1 without much hesitation. If not, we could be in trouble.

Harris has produced at least 15% below expectations in each of his past three. If the game script flips in favor of Jaylen Warren, we could be looking at low efficiency and low-ish volume.

Even in that situation, however, thanks to the matchup, I think you’re penciling in Harris. The Steelers are home underdogs and will be motivated to keep Joe Burrow off the field. As long as they can avoid an early strike, I like the home team in this game, and that means I’ll be overweight on exposure to Harris when it comes to Saturday’s two-game DFS slate.

Rachaad White, RB | TB (vs. NO)

Let’s call it what it is: Rachaad White is a complementary back. He was fantasy gold last season and at points through the first half of the season, but those days are very much behind us with the Bucky Irving era officially underway.

Buccaneers RBs Week 17 participation rates:

• Bucky Irving: 54.1% snap share and 20.2 expected points
• White: 36.5% snap share and 4.6 expected points
• Sean Tucker: 20.3% snap share and 5.5 expected points

Over the past two weeks, White has as many targets as carries (nine), and while I think he holds value in the right spots (a spot that we might get access to during the postseason), I don’t think this is one of those spots with the Bucs installed as a 13.5-point favorite.

The Saints haven’t reached 20 points in a game since coming out of their Week 12 bye and are unlikely to compete at a high level this week. White is averaging just 3.7 yards per carry this season when not facing the Panthers or Falcons this season — neither of those teams are on the opposing sideline this week, so in a run-centric script, give me all of Irving’s touches and nothing but scraps for White.

Raheem Blackshear, RB | CAR (at ATL)

It was tough to get a feel for this Carolina backfield sans Chuba Hubbard last week in a 34-point loss, but the final product was about what you would have guessed.

Nada.

As a team, the Panthers ran 13 times for 39 yards. Their longest rush against the Bucs was eight yards; if that is going to be the case, I really don’t care who is getting the work.

Raheem Blackshear led the way with eight carries (20 yards) and projects as my favorite this week, but that still lands him a ways from mattering in most formats, especially with Miles Sanders on the mend.

Hubbard had success in this matchup back in Week 6 (18 carries for 92 yards with five catches for good measure). I’d be surprised if this backfield as a whole got to half of that production.

Raheem Mostert, RB | MIA (at NYJ)

Raheem Mostert has multiple catches in each of his past four games, but he hasn’t cleared eight carries in a game in two months. If Miami is going to get this must-win game, it’s going to funnel the touches just about anywhere else.

Mostert is a good reminder to us all to judge every season as its own entity. None of his touchdowns from last season were ever going to matter this season, and with Jaylen Wright in the fold, we should have listened more to what this franchise was telling us.

Ray Davis, RB | BUF (at NE)

James Cook has had a tremendous season, and that is why Ray Davis is a viable option this week, one in which I expect Cook to be significantly limited if not sat down altogether.

Davis hasn’t shown much of late (18 carries for 36 yards over his past four games), but he’s caught 15 of 16 targets this season and has a physical approach that could be counted on heavily if/when the regulars take a seat.

Ty Johnson has been more of a factor lately and will be involved, but he’s averaging just 1.7 carries per target this season. If this turns into a full-game committee with Davis on the plus side, I could see him returning viable RB2 production in what might be an ugly game in terms of fantasy production.

Rhamondre Stevenson, RB | NE (vs. BUF)

Rumors swirled pre-game that the Patriots were going to send a message about ball security and bench Rhamondre Stevenson for the Week 17 game with the Chargers.

He then got the first carry of the game and didn’t fumble.

He then accounted for one of the final 19 Patriots rush attempts.

So, no, he technically wasn’t “benched” off the hop, but he was certainly phased out, and this could turn into a difficult situation. Stevenson still has four years left on his deal (two until the team has so much as an out), but we have little proof that he is in good standing or a good fit for this Drake Maye offense — the once versatile threat has failed to catch more than a single pass in three straight (and four of his past five) games.

He lost a fumble in this matchup back in Week 16, but he also ran hard (60 yards and a touchdown on 12 carries). Was last week the sending of a message or a sign of things to come?

The fact that failing to reach 10 touches feels more likely than clearing 15 is reason enough for me to consider just about any reasonable piece on a team fighting for something as a more favorable Flex play than this downward-trending Patriot.

Rico Dowdle, RB | DAL (vs. WAS)

That’s now six straight games with over 100 rushing yards or at least three catches for Rico Dowdle. I’ve largely been impressed with what Dowdle has put on tape this season and will be bullish on him next season as a result. His 17-game pace since Week 12, when this franchise committed to him:

• 340 carries
• 32 catches
• 1,899 total yards

This is a fine matchup, and if Dallas wants to play spoiler, Dowdle is their best path to doing that (Week 12 at Washington: 22 touches for 98 yards). The limitations of his fantasy profile are more a product of the team he plays for than anything — Dallas ranks 22nd in red-zone drives this season (2.75 per game), one season after pacing the league in that stat (4.18).

Roschon Johnson, RB | CHI (at GB)

Roschon Johnson is averaging 2.8 yards per carry this season and has been held without a 10-yard rush or a 20-yard touch. This man has done one thing well this season and only one thing …

Johnson’s PPR point distribution, 2024:

• Scored from the one-yard line: 36.6 points
• Scored elsewhere: 33.9 points

If you have a model that predicts how often a team will be tackled on the one-yard line and it’s screaming at you, you’re playing Johnson. Assuming you don’t have that crystal ball, you shouldn’t be interested.

Saquon Barkley, RB | PHI (vs. NYG)

Saquon Barkley needs 101 rushing yards to set the single-season record — he’s done that in a half of action five times this season (including the second half in Week 7 against these Giants).

This case would have been pretty straightforward if Barkley was playing on Sunday — he would have deserved to to be locked into lineups as, for once, the primary goal of both fantasy managers and an NFL team will align.

But since Barkley is sitting, I’m not overly interested in the surrounding pieces. I suppose if Will Shipley were to sit, Kenneth Gainwell’s path to holding Flex value would be reasonably clear, but that’s a low-ceiling play in a game that I don’t see having much in the way of scoring chances.

Tank Bigsby, RB | JAX (at IND)

Tank Bigsby has looked like the more appealing fantasy option than Travis Etienne Jr. more often than not this season, but the upside in a very limited offense is capped when both are on the field.

Bigsby has cleared 12 carries in a game just once since the beginning of November and he hasn’t had a 20-yard rush since consecutive games with a 50+ yard spurt in Weeks 4-5. On the bright side, he turned 13 carries into 101 yards and a pair of touchdowns when these teams met in Week 5 (Etienne: six carries for 17 yards), something that should at least earn him the first shot at them this week.

That said, the Colts’ run defense is much improved, and we just saw them shut down a limited Giants offense that they could load the box against. I’ve got concerns about efficiency in this spot; given that we haven’t seen much in the way of consistent volume in Jacksonville, it’s hard to count on either Bigsby or Etienne with any level of confidence.

I prefer Bigsby this week, but you’re taking on an awful lot of risk.

Tony Pollard, RB | TEN (vs. HOU)

Tony Pollard was battling an ankle injury all of last week and then came down with the flu, a combination of events that prevented him from taking the field in Jacksonville.

His role has been very fantasy-friendly of late (17+ carries or 4+ targets in each of his past five appearances), but with the team not playing for anything and committed to Pollard for a $5.99 million base salary next season, it seems unlikely that they overextend him this weekend if he’s active at all.

Layered on top of the risk that comes with Pollard is the fact that this team is motivated to get an extended look at Tyjae Spears (two more years left on his contract). This situation is a bit cloudy at the moment, but you’ll want to keep tabs — Pollard carried 24 times for 119 yards and a score alongside a 20% target share at Houston in Week 12.

Travis Etienne Jr., RB | JAX (at IND)

I’m a man of data. I approach life with the idea that with increased information comes increased confidence.

I’ve been in this industry for over a decade, and this Jacksonville backfield has me questioning everything.

Week 9:

Travis Etienne Jr.: 31.4% of snaps
Tank Bigsby: 54.9% of snaps

Week 10:

Etienne: 67.4% of snaps
Bigsby: 23.3% of snaps

Week 13:

Etienne: 52.2% of snaps
Bigsby: 46.3% of snaps

Week 14:

Etienne: 48.3% of snaps
Bigsby: 51.7% of snaps

Week 15:

Etienne: 70.1% of snaps
Bigsby: 28.6% of snaps

Week 16:

Etienne: 50.8% of snaps
Bigsby: 29.5% of snaps

Week 17:

Etienne: 47.4% of snaps
Bigsby: 40.4% of snaps

We got a commitment from this team back in Week 15, seemingly out of nowhere, and they clearly felt bad about giving us a good feel for this situation, so now they are back to dividing a tiny pie multiple ways.

Last week, Etienne produced 33% under expectation — and he was the more effective of the two (Bigsby: -52.9%). Committees are a pain in any situation, but in an offense that has cleared 20 points just once in their past seven games, it’s simply not worth the effort to maybe guess right.

Trey Benson, RB | ARI (vs. SF)

Nobody in Arizona’s backfield is at full strength, and that leads me to look elsewhere. Trey Benson has missed consecutive weeks with a bulky ankle, and even when he was healthy, we are talking about a low-usage back with limited versatility.

There’s certainly a case to be made for Benson to be among the top five handcuff running backs next season, and I’ll happily scoop up shares late, but we’ve seen nothing to suggest that he is worthy of a look this season should he be cleared for action.

Tyjae Spears, RB | TEN (vs. HOU)

Tyjae Spears filled in for Tony Pollard (ankle) last week and was treated like a true bellcow — at least, that is, before he got his bell rung.

Against the Jags, Spears had 23 touches (103 yards) before getting hurt in the third quarter. He opened the work week with his status up in the air with a minor positive lean, while Pollard began set to return to action for what amounts to a meaningless game for all involved.

The Titans are playing it safe, and Spears will be out in Week 18. It makes all the sense in the world to be cautious — they have him on his rookie contract for another two seasons.

With Spears inactive, Pollard can be started if you don’t have any other options.

Tyler Allgeier, RB | ATL (vs. CAR)

Tyler Allgeier has 11 single-digit carry games this season and is pretty clearly Robin to Bijan Robinson’s Batman.

At this point, he’s probably less than a “Robin,” but my movie knowledge is very limited, so that’s the best I’ve got for you.

In Week 6’s meeting with the Panthers, this was much more of a committee situation. Allgeier out-carried Robinson and he led the team with 105 rushing yards, a role that is very much a thing of the past. Atlanta has come around to the idea of Robinson being the focal point of its offense, and I can’t imagine that changes in a must-win spot.

Allgeier has caught all 11 of his targets; that’s great, but just 86 routes run through 17 weeks is more concerning than the perfect catch rate is encouraging. He’ll again rank as an elite handcuff in 2025, nothing more.

Tyrone Tracy Jr., RB | NYG (at PHI)

Tyrone Tracy Jr. has made it clear that he is the man of the present and future when it comes to this New York backfield, but if this offense doesn’t grow around him and Malik Nabers, it may not matter.

He was handed the rock 20 times against the Colts last week and managed to pick up just 59 yards. He failed to gain yardage on seven of his carries, and if not for an outlier 20-yard gain, that ugly stat line gets far worse.

Tracy’s grade in our custom elusive rating metric has dipped over the past month, and that could symbolize a rookie wall. It could also point to a team that has generally thrown in the towel around him.

I think you can get away with Flexing Tracy for his volume this week, especially if you believe that it’ll come against second-string defenders like I do, but I can’t go much higher than that in my rankings given the overall state of this New York offense.

Zach Charbonnet, RB | SEA (at LAR)

Zach Charbonnet is getting an extended run as the lead man in Seattle with Kenneth Walker III on the shelf, and it’s been a mixed bag of results.

On Thursday night, he managed just 57 yards on 15 carries in sloppy conditions, but he did manage to catch every pass thrown his way for a third time in four games. The Rams held this running game in check back in Week 9 (Charbonnet and Walker combined to pick up just 91 yards on 27 carries), making an inefficient afternoon very possible this week.

The middle of my RB2 tier this week is littered with volume backs on bad teams (Rico Dowdle, D’Andre Swift, etc.), and Charbonnet is no different. He’s a good bet for 15-18 touches, but the scoring limitations hold him back from pushing above RB15 for me.

Week 18 Fantasy Football Wide Receivers

Adam Thielen, WR | CAR (at ATL)

The Adam Thielen experience has been unique over the past two seasons, as it has featured two hot streaks (11 games) and below-average production otherwise (16 games):

• Hot streaks: 21.4 PPG, 25.5% over expectation
• Otherwise: 8.4 PPG, 9.9% below expectation

The Panthers are going to compete in this game and they might cover, but what motivation do they have to weigh down their veteran receiver with usage?

None.

That doesn’t mean they won’t, NFL teams baffle me with their decision-making weekly. However, it does mean we have to tread lightly, as Jalen Coker is a rookie who could use these reps a lot more.

This offense looked different back in Week 6, but Andy Dalton fed Diontae Johnson 27% of the targets, and he turned them into nearly 20 PPR points. That slot role is likely to hold value, and while I have Thielen as the favorite to earn most of that work, I’m not overly confident in the exact rate.

He currently sits as my WR29 this week and is a player I’d rather roll the dice on than a veteran like Calvin Ridley, who doesn’t have a rookie QB to work on developing.

A.J. Brown, WR | PHI (vs. NYG)

A.J. Brown has caught a touchdown pass in three straight games, and it’s become clear that this team is willing to take its chances with weighing their WR1 down with targets.

Wise move.

I like what that means for their potential to push for an NFC crown, but that means getting to the postseason in one piece. With Week 18 meaning nothing to their standing, I’d be shocked if we got much more than a cameo from Brown on Sunday.

If you’re hellbent on targeting the Giants’ defense, Jahan Dotson is the WR3 in this offense, and Kenneth Gainwell has shown savvy in the passing game. It’s very possible that an Eagle or two got you to this point in your playoff bracket, but I find it unlikely that any of them attached to the passing game make an impact this week.

Alec Pierce, WR | IND (vs. JAX)

Alec Pierce turned three targets into a cool 134 yards and a touchdown against the Jaguars back in Week 5, so that’s fun.

Projecting a stat line like that is irresponsible, but suggesting that Pierce could be a Flex option isn’t. Joe Flacco supported a 25% on-field target share for him last week (his second-highest mark of the season), and if you’re telling me that we get usage like that this week, I’ll be all the way in.

Jaguars vs. deep passes, 2024:

• 28th in TD%
• 30th in CMP%
• 31st in YPA
• 32nd in passer rating

Pierce has 10 games north of 80 air yards this season, and that’s reason enough to gamble on him in a spot like this if you’re an underdog. There’s an obvious risk that comes with Pierce, starting with him being their third-best target earner. But if you’re willing to take on a low floor, the upside case is appealing.

Amari Cooper, WR | BUF (at NE)

Amari Cooper has played eight games this season with the Bills and six with the Browns — he’s run 89 more routes with Cleveland than Buffalo.

I have zero experience in NFL front offices, but given the low usage by a handful of Super Bowl contenders of the pass catchers they acquired around the trade deadline, I can’t help but think that we will be getting an unleashing of some sort during the playoffs.

But if Buffalo has slow-played things up to this point, why would they show any of their cards in a game that has no long-term meaning on anything?

Cooper’s 30-yard touchdown last week was a thing of beauty and has me more interested in his playoff fantasy stock than anything we see this week in what more than likely will be a brief outing.

Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR | DET (vs. MIN)

It’s easy to forget that Amon-Ra St. Brown opened this season with consecutive scoreless efforts as it feels like he scores every week.

He has 12 in 14 games since that start to the season, and his route-running precision makes him a near-impossible guard in this creative system that positions him away from bulk defenders. Even with Jameson Williams emerging and Sam LaPorta getting his groove back, St. Brown is St. Brown-ing (36 targets over the past three weeks with a touchdown in all three contests).

The blitz-happy Vikings might actually project well for the role that St. Brown fills. We saw it in Week 7 (32% target share, 25.2 PPR points), and if Minnesota is going to throw exotic mixes at Jared Goff, he’s just more likely to hone in on his star receiver who always appears to be open.

The Packers had success through the air when they finally got aggressive against the Vikings last week, and Dan Campbell has this unit, this team, this city on full-go aggression mode 24/7.

St. Brown could be the top point scorer of the week and deserves to be one of the first players off of draft boards next season.

Brandin Cooks, WR | DAL (vs. WAS)

Brandin Cooks saw a season-high eight targets last week and that was enough to get him to 52 yards. Dallas is paying him a whole bunch of money to do very little, so if a little season-ending stat padding helps make their investment look better, I’m happy for them.

For our purposes, I’m not the least bit tempted to bite. Jalen Tolbert is getting what few high-value targets are generated by this offense, and I’m just not sure that Cooks is capable of producing at a viable level anymore.

The veteran wideout is under one yard per route run this season and doesn’t have a grab gaining more than 30 yards since Thanksgiving — of last season. If you want to bet on Cooper Rush (what a sentence), Tolbert or the tight ends is the way to do it.

Brian Thomas Jr., WR | JAX (at IND)

Since 2020, three times has a rookie receiver posted consecutive games with 85 receiving yards and a touchdown catch:

• Amon-Ra St. Brown (2021)
• Brian Thomas Jr. (Weeks 15-17)
• Brian Thomas Jr. (Weeks 4-5)

BTJ is the only receiver in NFL history with two such streaks as a rookie. If he can post a fourth straight game in Week 18, he’ll join Randy Moss (1998), St. Brown (2021), and Odell Beckham Jr. (2014) as the only players to accomplish that feat.

This kid is special, and we are seeing signs of it, even though it’s a mess of a season in Jacksonville. He burned these Colts for an 85-yard score in Week 5, and while Trevor Lawrence got him that pass, it’s not as if Lawrence was playing at a high level.

The only reservations you should have here should center around Mac Jones — that is plenty reasonable. I mean, the man is 2-of-21 on passes thrown over 20 yards downfield. I get it.

That said, the risk is worth it. Thomas is a rare talent, and the Colts’ run defense has actually been strong for the most part after an awful start to the season. I think we get 8-10 targets here, and that’s enough usage to justify the quality of throw concerns in Jacksonville.

Calvin Ridley, WR | TEN (vs. HOU)

Calvin Ridley has been a more stable option this season than I would have ever given him credit for entering the year (eight top-30 finishes), but the low-ceiling portion of things I got right.

Ridley has just one game with 95+ receiving yards, and his 53% catch rate highlights all of the issues we had entering this season. I’m not banking on much scoring equity, but he gave us 14.3 PPR points in the Week 12 meeting. That is roughly in line with what I believe you can expect on Sunday.

That was a Will Levis game, but the Levis/Mason Rudolph stat lines this season are essentially a recreation of the Spiderman meme.

• Levis: 63.7% completion rate, 6.7 yards per attempt, and 1.0 TD/INT
• Rudolph: 63.5% completion rate, 6.7 yards per attempt, and 1.0 TD/INT

I’d caution against using your valuable time to watch the Titans play football, but sliding Ridley in as a low-end WR2 is perfectly reasonable.

Cedric Tillman, WR | CLE (at BAL)

Cedric Tillman hasn’t played since suffering a concussion in Week 12, and while he’s practiced some since, we are looking at a long shot when it comes to Week 18 value if he suits up at all.

The Ravens’ defense has been better of late, and I’d like to redirect you to the rare statistical stylings of Dorian Thompson-Robinson from above. This isn’t a passing game you should feel any obligation to invest in, period — let alone for a player that is, at best, their third option.

CeeDee Lamb, WR | DAL (vs. WAS)

The Cowboys announced before Week 17 kicked off that the additional exams they performed on CeeDee Lamb’s ailing shoulder revealed enough damage for them to end his season two weeks early. We’ve known for a while that the alpha receiver was working through various injuries, and with the team officially out of the hunt, this decision seemed more inevitable than anything.

Among qualified receivers through 16 weeks, Lamb ranked third in expected PPR points per game this season while assuming the fifth-highest on-field target share.

We’ve seen many pass games be grounded of late and Lamb is no exception, as his aDOT has declined in three straight seasons (10.9 – 10.5 – 10.1 – 8.3). That, however, didn’t stop Lamb from posting his fourth 1,100-yard season. He doesn’t turn 26 until April, yet he already sits No. 2 on the Cowboys’ all-time list in 1,100-yard seasons (Michael Irvin: 6).

When it comes to 2025, I’m not hesitating to rank him among the best in the game and a first-round selection. The average depth of target stuff is interesting and would be more concerning if we weren’t dealing with an elite talent. I don’t think Dak Prescott is Joe Burrow, but we’ve seen Ja’Marr Chase’s usage follow a similar trajectory in the three healthy seasons from his franchise QB (12.6 in 2021, 9.1 in 2023, and 8.9 this season). I see no reason to think things will be different in the case of Dallas’ WR1.

It’s early, but I have six receivers labeled as Tier 1 redraft options for 2025, and Lamb is on that list (others: Chase, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Nico Collins, Puka Nacua, and Justin Jefferson).

Chris Olave, WR | NO (at TB)

The Saints toyed with the idea of bringing Chris Olave (concussion) back last week after the star receiver got in full practice sessions on both Wednesday and Thursday, but they ultimately elected to keep him inactive.

Do they look to put him in a live game setting before the season ends? I suppose it’s possible — they have one season left of control on his bargain contract and likely will want him to enter the offseason with some level of confidence in his health. But banking on him being a fantasy asset in this low-octane offense is a step I’m not willing to take.

The Saints have no motivation to put him in a position to make a significant impact on Week 18 matchups, and while he is certainly talented enough to do so, betting on it happening is dangerous in anything but a contrarian DFS build.

Christian Watson, WR | GB (vs. CHI)

Christian Watson lit up the Bears for 150 yards in Week 11, but doing so on four targets isn’t exactly the most sustainable performance.

The burner is battling a knee injury that he suffered in Week 16, which forced him to miss all of Week 17 (practices included). A compromised version of Watson is something I have no desire to bet my season on, but I will note that his target earning was trending in the right direction before getting hurt (13 targets on 43 routes in Weeks 14-15).

If you want to roll the dice on Watson in a postseason pool, you have a green light for me at cost. However, I’m not sure he plays this week, and even if he does, I’d be actively searching for options on my wire instead (Jalen Tolbert and Parker Washington are options in most spots).

Cooper Kupp, WR | LAR (vs. SEA)

I’m not willing to say that Cooper Kupp and Father Time are in a battle, but these past three weeks have certainly poured gasoline on that topic.

• 67 routes
• 53 yards
• Nine targets
• Four catches
• Zero touchdowns

That’s brutal. His aDOT over that stretch (9.0) isn’t much different than his season rate (8.1), so that leads me to believe that there might be a health issue at play. Either that, random variance, or the most pronounced age cliff in recent memory.

I’ll sort out which of those buckets gets the most blame over the offseason — for Week 18, he’s tough to trust. He still has two years left on his contract, so if it is a health thing, it’s not hard to imagine a world in which the Rams manage his participation this week and tank his fantasy value even further.

I’m hoping for a bounce back and we see him pick apart this secondary to the tune of 11 catches and 104 yards in Week 9, but he’s far from a must-start this week (for me, WR31).

Courtland Sutton, WR | DEN (vs. KC)

After reaching 70 yards receiving in six straight games, Courtland Sutton hasn’t cleared 55 in three straight, but he’s bailed you out with a score in two of those games.

That sort of decline should have your attention for the postseason, but I’m not close to sweating it this weekend. Despite the limited returns recently, Sutton has remained heavily involved (115+ air yards in four of his past five games) and didn’t struggle to generate looks in Week 9 against a full version of this Chiefs defense (32.1% target share, 70 yards, and a touchdown).

I currently have him sitting just outside of my WR1 tier this week, and that could easily change (three top-six finishes this season) as we gather more information about what Chiefs are/aren’t going to take the field.

Darius Slayton, WR | NYG (at PHI)

Darius Slayton rode the Drew Lock express last week (32-yard touchdown), but even with the Giants getting, by our measuring, the single-best QB game they’ve had in five seasons, Slayton was unable to catch more than two balls for the sixth straight game.

I don’t think Lock is Jameis Winston 2.0, and even if he is, I’m not sure that Slayton is capable of earning targets at the rate needed to make me comfortable.

Darnell Mooney, WR | ATL (vs. CAR)

Darnell Mooney has cleared 70 air yards in both of Michael Penix Jr.’s starts but with very different outcomes, production lines that weren’t skewed due to a touchdown.

Week 16: 74 air yards, 9.8 expected points, and 13.2 points
Week 17: 78 air yards, 8.0 expected points, and 5.7 points

I think that is what we are going to see as this offense adjusts to Penix (this week and potentially in the postseason should they qualify). The do-or-die nature of this game is nice, but my lack of clarity as to how much work I can reasonably pencil in for Mooney has him outside of my top 35 receivers this week.

Last week, Drake London saw 13 targets while Kyle Pitts, Bijan Robinson, and Darnell Mooney split 15 evenly. Atlanta’s WR2 was running hot coming into the Week 6 meeting with the Panthers and managed only three catches and a 17.2% target share.

There’s just as much risk as reward in this Week 18 profile, and that has me searching in other places to fill my Flex spot.

Davante Adams, WR | NYJ (vs. MIA)

The only players with more targets than Davante Adams (102) since he debuted for the Jets are Ja’Marr Chase (119) and Malik Nabers (110). That run includes an 11-target performance against these Dolphins in Week 14 (nine catches for 109 yards and a score), and the volume looks as sustainable as it was when this tandem was winning games in a different shade of green.

Adams saw a 2.1-yard average depth of target in last week’s lopsided loss in Buffalo. We could see a similar usage pattern this week with the Dolphins (like the Bills) being a defense that prioritizes taking away the big play. That might limit the raw upside for Adams, but I’m not worried about it. He’s averaging a career-high 5.6 yards per catch after the reception this season.

We could spend time arguing if Adams should be ranked as WR8 or WR18 (my WR14), but I’d be playing him in any spot where I have him.

DeAndre Hopkins, WR | KC (at DEN)

The Chiefs have yet to really extend DeAndre Hopkins (he’s topped out at a 63.1% snap share and has been held under 50% in three straight), and I don’t see that changing with nothing of substance on the line.

That’s a lie. Hopkins pockets a $500,000 bonus with a touchdown, so maybe they work to get him there, but that’s an awfully thin line to walk, especially if he’s in the game and Patrick Mahomes isn’t.

I’m not sure we get clarity on Kansas City’s plans for playing time ahead of time — that has me fading all of their players under the assumption of rational coaching principle.

That’s a dangerous principle to follow with regularity, but I break it out in Week 18 because of the increased guesswork we are forced to do.

Deebo Samuel Sr., WR | SF (at ARI)

Last week was Samuel’s second (healthy) half this season without a single target. While he scored on his only “target” of the game, that was nothing more than a run play that happened to feature a forward lateral.

He has multiple rush attempts in four straight games, and even if he were playing, that wouldn’t have been enough to keep him ranked as a fantasy starter this week.

Samuel saw 16 targets in the two weeks before last week’s struggles, but that came on the heels of earning just 12 looks over a three-game stretch. I was hopeful that he’d establish some level of consistent role in this passing attack with Brandon Aiyuk out, but that’s been more Jauan Jennings than anything.

At this point, Samuel’s name carries more value than his on-field production. We’ll see if he is able to rebound next season.

Demarcus Robinson, WR | LAR (vs. SEA)

Over the past four weeks, Demarcus Robinson has run 89 routes and has not caught a single one of his five targets.

There is a time and a place for tertiary receivers in an offense with a pocket-locked quarterback. But like any good card player, you have to know when to fold’em — and that time was a month ago.

I’m usually late to the party on third options and early to cut bait. Does that burn me sometimes? Of course, but I’m happy to not swing at a bunch of randomness as opposed to banking on it sustaining.

Part of having success in fantasy sports is knowing yourself as a manager, which is the process that works for me. If you prefer to churn and burn roster spots, then a player like Robinson was likely on your roster at some point, but you need to be comfortable with aggressively cutting ties to avoid burning a roster spot.

DeMario Douglas, WR | NE (vs. BUF)

DeMario Douglas made the type of play last week that you love to see for so many reasons. Drake Maye identified the defense as being offsides, quick-snapped, and took full advantage of a free play in launching a pass down the middle of the field.

Douglas adjusted mid-flight, clearly expecting the ball after also seeing the defense jump, and made a diving 36-yard touchdown catch. The play, the read, and the connection.

Chef’s kiss.

Only time will tell if Douglas establishes himself as Khalil Shakir to Maye’s Josh Allen, but single moments like that are certainly encouraging. That said, that reception accounted for 78.3% of Douglas’ receiving yards for the day, continuing a trend that has seen him held under 65 receiving yards for 10 straight games. We are talking about a slot receiver with just one top-25 finish this season.

Douglas is a long way away from being a lineup lock, but I think he’s an interesting PPR add in the later rounds next season as a bet on the trajectory of this offense. He’s a WR4 for me this week and not one that I’m seeking to play just yet.

DeVonta Smith, WR | PHI (vs. NYG)

DeVonta Smith was shaken up early last week but finished with easily his best game of the season (6-120-2) in a shellacking of the Cowboys.

With nothing to gain from this week, I think you’re probably wise to avoid all pieces in Philadelphia outside of maybe Saquon Barkley if you want to play up the historic angle.

Smith’s role has been nearly identical for this team ever since A.J. Brown entered the mix (5-6 catches and 12-13 yards per catch per game), and I see no reason not to expect more of the same during the postseason and into 2025.

I don’t think he has a chance to be Tee Higgins (that is, a WR2 who has extended stretches where he is more productive than the WR1), but suitable year-end numbers appear to be a given at this point as long as you’re willing to deal with some variance on a weekly basis.

DJ Moore, WR | CHI (at GB)

​DJ Moore is one of five players with at least seven targets in each of his past seven games played and the list is quite impressive:

• Malik Nabers: 14 Straight
• Ja’Marr Chase: 9
• Davante Adams: 8
• Puka Nacua: 8
• Moore: 7

That’s pretty impressive and if the Bears are treating the season finale as a way to further see where Caleb Williams is comfortable throwing the ball, I think it stands to reason to believe that Moore extends this streak.

When Chicago hosted Green Bay in Week 11, he caught seven passes for 62 yards, a line that has a chance to be replicated this week as the road team tries to play spoiler.

Moore is a PPR Flex for me this week, and if you gave me the opportunity to bet over/under his 2024 totals for 2025, I’d be tempted to take the overs across the board.

DK Metcalf, WR | SEA (at LAR)

DK Metcalf hasn’t had a catch gaining more than 30 yards since Week 7 and hasn’t had a 100-yard game since September. The Jaxon Smith-Njigba breakout has really cut the legs out from underneath the upside of him, and I’m not sure we’ll see that recovery this week in a meaningless game.

As of this writing, I have no reason to think that Metcalf sits out this game and that means ranking him alongside another proven receiver on a downswing due to a younger star taking over in Cooper Kupp.

Both are ranked as fine Flex plays for me this week, but neither appears worthy of the “co-WR1” label that we were assigning them as recently as a month ago.

Dontayvion Wicks, WR | GB (vs. CHI)

Dontayvion Wicks has played over 77% of Green Bay’s snaps in three of his past five games and has been trusted with six red-zone touches over that stretch.

Packers WRs usage, Week 17:

• Romeo Doubs: 84.2% snaps, 11 targets, and 18.5 expected PPR points
• Dontayvion Wicks: 77.2% snaps, five targets, and 8.3 expected PPR points
• Jayden Reed: 70.2% snaps, four targets, and 6.5 expected PPR points
• Bo Melton: 22.8% snaps, four targets, and 6.9 expected PPR points

The trends are moving in the right direction, but we’ve seen this story with Packers’ pass catchers before, and that is why I am hesitant to buy in. He was shut out in Chicago back in Week 11 (one target), a game in which Jordan Love threw just 17 passes.

I fear that we could be looking at another low-volume spot if Green Bay controls this game, landing Wicks outside of my Flex comfort zone. If you’re forced into a streaming spot, I prefer Jalen Tolbert to Wicks and Wicks to Parker Washington to give you an idea of the tier in which we are talking.

Drake London, WR | ATL (vs. CAR)

Drake London’s ascent to fantasy stardom may have just needed Michael Penix Jr. to take over. We’ve seen him post bigger stat lines than last week (don’t get me wrong, I’m not complaining about 7-106-0), but the fully featured role that the Falcons have placed upon him and that the rookie is continuing to execute is what has me excited both for this weekend and moving forward.

Last week, he had two more catches than any two of his teammates had targets. That doesn’t happen by accident and Penix’s willingness to look his way on a variety of routes has me downright giddy.

• Week 16: 6.5 aDOT
• Week 17: 13.7 aDOT

London has a 33.9% on-field target share across Penix’s two starts and posted a 34.5% target share when first meeting with the Panthers in Week 6. I’d be more surprised if you told me this week that London finished outside of the top 20 receivers than inside the top five at the position.

Elijah Moore, WR | CLE (at BAL)

Elijah Moore is in the middle of about as bad a run as you’ll see from a receiver that had a window of fantasy relevance this season when the Jameis Winston experience was in full effect.

Moore’s production over the last three games:

• 99 routes
• 16 targets
• Five catches
• 21 yards

Some receivers are QB-proof, but it’s important to remember that the vast majority are not.

Moore is recent proof of this and he’s easy to avoid now, but don’t forget the lesson next season and why I always end up adding a player like Rashod Bateman over a Nick Westbrook-Ikhine type.

If I’m going to embrace variance at a high level, I’m going to look to limit the number of moving pieces where I can, and the QB is the logical place to start.

Garrett Wilson, WR | NYJ (vs. MIA)

Garrett Wilson has 10 top-30 performances this season and the floor has been great. For the most part. He has as many finishes outside the top 50 as he does inside the top five (three apiece), introducing a level of variance that is just enough to cast some doubt.

We obviously have no way of knowing what this team plans to do with Aaron Rodgers in this spot, but I’m operating as if he will play the majority of it barring a one-sided score. He was able to get Wilson 10 targets (seven catches for 114 yards) when these two teams played in Week 14 and while production like that is tough to pencil in, this is a very concentrated offense that projects to be playing from behind.

I’d rather play George Pickens, Jameson Williams, or even the upward-trending Jalen McMillan in gotta-have-it spots, but that doesn’t prevent Wilson from earning a top-25 grade and thus a starting nod in the vast majority of situations.

George Pickens, WR | PIT (vs. CIN)

George Pickens was hardly used in Week 17 (three catches on 41 routes), but the important part is that he was on the field and didn’t suffer any reported setbacks after missing three straight games.

In his seven games before the injury, Pittsburgh’s WR1 was averaging one catch every 6.4 routes and that is more along the lines of what we can expect this week and during the postseason.

The Bengals did a good job limiting his opportunities in their Week 13 meeting (16.7% target share), but that doesn’t mean they succeeded in slowing him down (74 yards and a touchdown). This is a gift matchup, and you’re fortunate that the Steelers remain alive in the chase for the AFC North — full speed ahead for those with Pickens on their roster.

Hollywood Brown, WR | KC (at DEN)

Everything about Hollywood Brown’s usage since debuting for the team has been great and if there was a word bigger than great, I’d use it here.

Two games: 34 routes and 15 targets

If that is the sort of usage we are going to get during the playoffs, Brown could prove to be a league winner for those in playoff pools. I’m a little skeptical that we see elite usage sustained over the next month (Xavier Worthy’s role is on the rise and “Playoff Kelce” is likely to be unleashed at some point), but I’d still take a shot on him in a league like that.

For Week 18, I wouldn’t be surprised if Brown lasted longer than the primary regulars on this offense in an effort to get him into game shape, but you’re asking a lot from him if you plan on rolling him out there. You could talk me into Flexing Brown if we knew we’d get three or four quarters from Patrick Mahomes, but with that not being the case, I’m looking elsewhere for my Flex spot.

Jakobi Meyers, WR | LV (vs. LAC)

Jakobi Meyers is a good example of how valuable raw volume can be (eight top-30 finishes) if you trust the player. He’s proven to be an above-average player throughout his career, and that’s often enough if assigned this sort of alpha role.

I’m largely on board with a player like this, but against an elite defense with motivation, it isn’t really the spot for me. The Chargers have given up their fair share of big receiver games, and we may see that weakness exposed during the postseason, but I don’t expect it to be on Sunday.

The pass catchers who have given Los Angeles problems have been the big/physical types that want to high-point targets and/or box you out.

• Mike Evans (Week 15): 36.9 PPR points (17.8 expected)
• Tee Higgins (Week 11): 29.8 PPR points (22.1 expected)
• Ja’Marr Chase (Week 11): 26.5 PPR points (26.1 expected)
• Calvin Ridley (Week 10): 25.4 PPR points (14.9 expected)

Meyers really isn’t that type of player, and with Las Vegas projected for just 18 points this week, I’m looking for other options to fill out my Week 18 lineup.

Jalen Coker, WR | CAR (at ATL)

Jalen Coker has seen the slot role that he was occupying at points in the middle of the season decline with Adam Thielen healthy and playing well, something that has proven fatal to any projectable fantasy upside.

The rookie managed to earn just two targets on 31 routes last week in Tampa Bay, and I fear that this week could look similar. Through seven weeks, Coker’s aDOT was 10.4 yards, but it has sat at 13.1 yards since. That 26% rise may not seem like much, but in an offense that struggles with consistency down the field, it matters.

Coker is part of an interesting young core of pass catchers that I’m assigning more upside in 2025 than most, but that doesn’t mean getting ahead of things and investing this week.

Jalen McMillan, WR | TB (vs. NO)

I never want to be the one to heap expectations on a rookie, but I’m going to heap expectations onto a rookie.

Do I believe that Jalen McMillan is the next Amon-Ra St. Brown? To be honest, no, but I didn’t believe Amon-Ra St. Brown would be Amon-Ra St. Brown, so I like following interesting statistical threads like this.

No matter what you think the future holds for J-Mac, there’s no denying that he is uncovering at a high rate right now. The rookie has caught a touchdown pass in four straight games (the longest streak by a rookie since Lee Evans in 2004), all of which have yielded top-20 production at the position.

We will sort out the target hierarchy of this offense next season when at full strength, but in terms of projecting Week 18, McMillan is seeing enough usage to feel comfortable in starting as the Bucs profile as one of the better offensive bets this week.

Jalen Tolbert, WR | DAL (vs. WAS)

Talk about a day late and a dollar short. I like Jalen Tolbert coming into the season as Dallas’ WR2, operating under the thought that Brandin Cooks’ best days were behind him and that the attention paid to CeeDee Lamb would open things up for a secondary option.

None of that has really played out, but Tolbert has now scored in three straight games and found the painted area when these teams played in Week 12. Tolbert posted a 19% on-field target share last week, a rate that I think is about what we can expect in this Lamb-less offense.

Cooper Rush hasn’t been a world-beater by any means, but we did see him produce efficient numbers in two plus-matchups before last week (68.8% complete with four touchdowns and no interceptions against the Panthers and Buccaneers).

I’m not going out of my way to get Tolbert exposure this week, but if you think Dallas is going to be playing from behind, there’s a thread to pull, even if his value hinges more on touchdowns than I am comfortable.

Ja’Marr Chase, WR | CIN (at PIT)

Ja’Marr Chase dropped a second-quarter end-zone target last week, and according to my official database, that was the first mistake he had made all season.

OK, so that might be a little bit of a stretch, but you get the idea. He’s positioned to take home the receiving triple crown this season and will be in consideration for 1.01 status this summer. Chase has posted 12 top-20 finishes this season, proving to offer a stable floor to compliment a ceiling that, when everything is clicking, feels close to limitless.

Cincinnati’s star has nine straight games with at least six receptions. Only 15 times in the history of this great game has such a streak reached double figures, a list that is littered with Michael Thomas and Wes Welker types, speaking to the versatility of Chase.

Jameson Williams, WR | DET (vs. MIN)

It was a bumpy ride with inconsistencies and suspensions, but we seem to have arrived at a spot where Jameson Williams is deserving of lineup lock status, a label I expect him to very much carry over into 2025.

It’s amazing to look at Williams and Xavier Worthy side by side. Both are blessed with elite speed, but both have landed in creative offenses that are equally trying to get a feel for how to best use them. Much like Worthy, Williams has been getting his number called in exotic ways – he was on the scoring end of a hook-and-ladder on Monday night in a game that also saw him cash in a speed running play inside the 5-yard line.

Detroit knows what they have in Amon-Ra St. Brown and are now excelling at playing off of him. Williams has seen at least seven targets in five of his past six games, so even if the deep targets worry you, the sheer number of chances to connect is comforting.

This matchup suppresses some of my excitement, as the Vikes are a top-five defense against deep passes in terms of yards per completion and interception rate, but that’s not enough to knock him out of WR2 status.

Jauan Jennings, WR | SF (at ARI)

With Purdy not playing this week, I’ll be looking to bench Jauan Jennings. Josh Dobbs (5.8 yards per attempt with 15 touchdowns and 13 interceptions across 22 career appearances) is the next man up, and with Jennings on a very friendly deal for one more season, why put him in harm’s way?

If Purdy were suiting up, Jennings would have slid in as a viable Flex option in PPR leagues, thanks to him averaging 8.4 targets per game since the beginning of November. If we are operating under the assumption that Brandon Aiyuk has played his final game with this organization, Jennings is going to be a hot commodity next draft season – this offense is still a talented one when near full strength.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR | SEA (a,t LAR)

Last week was a struggle for many in fantasy championships and Jaxon Smith-Njigba (along with Terry McLaurin, James Conner, and others) was certainly a part of that.

After posting three straight top-20 finishes, JSN caught just three of six targets in Chicago for 32 yards. That game had plenty of weather concerns and was ugly for all 60 minutes, so I’m more than happy to write it off.

The Seahawks have nothing to play for, and while the Rams have some seed mobility, I don’t expect to place a ton of value on this contest either. Throwaway games like this are difficult to handicap, but Smith-Njigba looks like the top target earner in Seattle for years to come, and that is how I expect this offense to function on Sunday—he’s my WR16 this week, a ranking that will be lower than my 2025 season grade for him.

Jayden Reed, WR | GB (vs. CHI)

Jayden Reed hasn’t run 25 routes in a game since Week 9 and has only three end-zone targets on his 2024 ledger. And yet, I can’t quit him.

I know I’ve said it a few times, but why can’t be a souped-up version of Zay Flowers? Marry the Ravens’ WR1 ability to earn targets with his catch rate and YAC ability on his way to being a top-20 option.

Easy game, right?

In theory, I think so, and that is why I might buy back next season. For Week 18, I have him and Romeo Doubs ranked awfully close. Reed checks the matchup box (71.9% of his time is spent in the slot, and the Bears rank 22nd in yards per slot pass against this season), while Doubs’ form is certainly more encouraging.

This spread is trending toward double-digits — and that tracks. The Packers are trying to avoid the Eagles in the first round of the playoffs, and the Bears – well, their season has been done for a while now.

I’m expecting Green Bay to control this game from start to finish, but that could mean more Josh Jacobs than it does putting the game in Jordan Love’s hands. I feel good about no Packer in this passing game, but you could justify playing four pieces. You’re taking on some risk with Reed, but at least it’s a good spot for a team that will be functioning as normal.

Jaylen Waddle, WR | MIA (at NYJ)

Jaylen Waddle missed last week’s win over the Browns with a knee injury, and his status is currently cloudy, although Mike McDaniel did sound optimistic when addressing the media on Monday.

His health, of course, is only one piece of the puzzle. Tua Tagovailoa is dealing with a hip injury, and Tyler Huntley is getting the early reps in practice this week. The Dolphins are still mathematically alive, and that has me leaning in the direction of Tagovailoa, but we have nothing definitive at this point in time, and it makes a HUGE difference:

• With Tagovailoa: 23.4% production over expectation, 1.9 yards/route, and 10.6 aDOT
• With Huntley: 30.4% production below expectation, 1.4 yards/route, and 8.1 aDOT

Waddle turned 12 targets into nine grabs and 99 yards in Week 14 against these Jets, a stat line that is encouraging if Tagovailoa is under center. The part that worries me about Huntley is that the production change is a result of a significantly different role.

Waddle is a talented player, and the dip in aDOT makes a viable performance possible but not projectable, and that would have him falling from a starter in most formats with Tagovailoa to a ‘pivot-if-possible’ option if not.

Jerry Jeudy, WR | CLE (at BAL)

Jerry Jeudy joined Josh Gordon (2013) and Kellen Winslow (2007) as the only Browns to earn 18 targets in a game last week (he was also the third Brown to catch 12 passes in a game, interestingly enough, the first to do both).

The high-usage game is enough to justify labeling Jeudy as a WR2, a rarity for a player in a meaningless spot opposing a team with everything to play for. I have my concerns about how valuable each individual target will be with Dorian Thompson-Robinson under center, but no self-respecting math person can steer clear of usage like this in a potential catchup spot against a defense that is more vulnerable through the air than on the ground.

John Metchie III, WR | HOU (at TEN)

ADD.

John Metchie III was the player who saw his stock rise the most in the first game following Tank Dell’s injury – he matched a season-high snap share (72.2%) and earned a 25.8% target share in the loss to the Ravens.

Texans WRs production, Week 17:

• John Metchie III: 72.2% snaps and 9.8 points (14.9 expected)
• Xavier Hutchinson: 72.2% snaps and 4.1 points (6.3 expected)
• Nico Collins: 70.4% snaps and 8.9 points (9.5 expected)
• Robert Woods: 35.2% snaps and 4.1 points (3.2 expected)

I’m in no hurry to roll out Texans this week, as they profile as a vulnerable division champion and need to be at full strength to have a host at winning multiple games this postseason, but if I had to dig deep, Houston’s third-year receiver has my interest as a contrarian play.

Jordan Addison, WR | MIN (at DET)

Jordan Addison ranks sixth among receivers with at least 75 targets this season in production over expectation (+28.9%, just ahead of Ladd McConkey and Ja’Marr Chase). He looks like the real deal after a rookie year that I was willing to write off as Christian Watson-y because of the unsustainably high scoring rate.

In Week 7’s matchup with Detroit, Addison only caught three passes (66 yards), but Josh Nailor added 76 yards, and I think it’s safe to say that Addison is a good bet to absorb some of that usage.

The Lions are a top-10 deep ball defense in terms of both completion percentage and touchdown rate, making this a bit of a boom/bust matchup. We’ve seen what the valleys look like from Addison (six games under 45 receiving yards), and that drags him down to an average WR2 ranking for me this week, but the upside that comes with 12 red-zone touches over his past six games is tough to sit on in a week like this.

Addison can become the fourth player since 1985 to open his career with a pair of double-digit TD reception seasons (Odell Beckham Jr., Rob Gronkowski, and Randy Moss).

Josh Downs, WR | IND (vs. JAX)

Everything Josh Downs had put on film with Joe Flacco before last week was borderline special. He was vacuuming in targets at a high rate and looking like a receiver to watch for years to come.

And then, in a game that turned into a shootout, he operates as the third option behind Alec Pierce (94.5% snap share) and Michael Pittman Jr. (93.2%). I didn’t have that on my bingo card, and it resulted in just 22 yards on his 26 routes run against the Giants.

I’m not dismissing all of the good that Downs had done with Flacco before last week, but I’m certainly not sticking out my chest on him as a top-20 play like I was. Flacco funneled 12 targets in his direction (nine catches for 69 yards) in a Week 5 meeting with the Jags, and that has me thinking that a Flex rebound is certainly possible.

I have Downs ranked as a middling WR3 this week, profiling more of a floor than a ceiling PPR play.

Joshua Palmer, WR | LAC (at LV)

Joshua Palmer has been more involved of late (12 targets on 47 routes over the past two weeks), but we really haven’t seen him impact winning in a major way for the Chargers.

He’s posted a negative EPA per target rate in three straight games, and the usage is simply too spotty to bank on. I’d love to say that a 6’1” athlete carries reliable upside, and his 15.1 aDOT gives him a path to success, though the projectable nature of his profile is limited due to inconsistent usage in the red zone.

Palmer was in a walking boot following Week 17’s blowout win, introducing yet another factor into things. Ladd McConkey is the only member of this passing game you can trust, and with Quentin Johnston soaking up plenty of perimeter usage, you’re overthinking things by going in this direction.

JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR | KC (at DEN)

If you told me some things didn’t happen, I’d believe you. These things happened so long ago that my memory faded, and I could easily be convinced it was a dream. Dinosaurs, the newspaper, the Miami Dolphins last playoff victory, things like that.

I think we’ve hit the point where JuJu Smith-Schuster’s breakout game for the Chiefs is now one of those things. Back in Week 5, he caught seven balls on 29 routes for 130 yards, and we all wondered if he could be the knockoff version of Rashee Rice for this offense.

Not even close.

He’s turned 149 routes into eight catches and 80 yards since then. Given the version of Smith-Schuster that we see these days, you could easily sell me on that nice day in early October when he carved up the Saints as a self-created image that never actually occurred.

Justin Jefferson, WR | MIN (at DET)

The best receiver in the game in the biggest game of the week – do I really need to sell you here?

Justin Jefferson earned a 30.8% target share when these teams first met (Week 7), and with injuries ravaging this Detroit defense, I’m not sure they have the manpower to defend Minnesota’s alpha WR.

Last week, the Packers did everything in their power to take away Jefferson – he earned 11 targets anyway and nearly decided the game with one of the better catches in the middle of the field that you’ll see, a highlight that was called back by penalty.

In football, as we know it today, I’m not sure you can guard greatness in the receiver position. The development of Jordan Addison adds just another wrinkle to this offense that Detroit might have problems with – this is going to be such a fun game, and you are lucky to have the fate of your matchup in the hands of a Jefferson hammer.

Kayshon Boutte, WR | NE (vs. BUF)

Kayshon Boutte burned the Bills for 95 yards and a score two weeks – it’s easy to fall into the recency bias bucket and project the second-year receiver for a strong Week 18 stat line, understanding that he was able to produce against Buffalo’s starters and will likely be facing a lesser version of their secondary for the majority of Sunday.

I’d be careful. Before that explosion, he didn’t have a 60-yard game on his résumé. He’s been able to make some chunk plays this season, and that’s good to see when it comes to looking long-term, but the structure of Buffalo’s defense (no matter who is on the field) is to prevent those outcomes.

Boutte has a limited target ceiling, but at the very least, we have a handful of targets in four straight games to hang our hat on. I think this New England offense is an interesting one to roll out there in a DFS setting, as they are motivated to experiment with Drake Maye, but for season long, I’d rather take a safer role with a higher production floor.

Keenan Allen, WR | CHI (at GB)

Keenan Allen’s usage has been all over the place this season, but with 34 targets in his past three games, the opportunity count is at least in our favor. I suspect that the Bears, like the Patriots, will use this week as a high-pressure practice session, willing to take some risks in a game setting to develop their franchise quarterback.

How much of that experimenting will be geared toward Allen is my concern.

Allen is an unrestricted free agent this summer and the elder statesman in this receiver room. DJ Moore and Rome Odunze are likely to be the pieces Caleb Williams is dealing with for the foreseeable future, so why wouldn’t Chicago opt to feature them in a massive way to try to get a snapshot as to what the 2025 season could look like?

Allen saw a 4.3-yard aDOT last week, his second-lowest of the season. If his usage is removed, Moore is the more likely of the two remaining receivers to absorb it. As involved as he has been of late, I’m passing on Allen in Week 18 and have him ranked third of this trio.

Keon Coleman, WR | BUF (at NE)

Watch the Keon Coleman touchdown from last week and tell me this doesn’t look like a future playmaker in this league:

Keon Coleman put DJ Reed into a blender on this play #BillsMafia | #GoBills
pic.twitter.com/lcfNL4pT6I

— Peter DiBiasi (@DibiasiPeter) December 30, 2024

It was a reckless Josh Allen play, but there’s a reason he has the confidence to throw a pass like that to a rookie. There was a foreshadowing of a play like this coming, as Coleman had a chunk play come off the board on Buffalo’s first drive due to offensive holding. A fade was also drawn up for him on the Bills’ first goal-to-go snap of Week 17, further proof that he is ascending up their priority list when it comes to opportunity count.

Coleman has cleared 65 air yards in three straight games (and in five of his past six), filling a pretty clear role in this offense. I think it’s likely that, in terms of playing time, Buffalo treats this like a preseason game, and that leads me to doubt that we get enough usage to roll the dice on Coleman.

I want exposure to him long-term, and that long-term might well start in the first game this postseason, but not this week.

Khalil Shakir, WR | BUF (at NE)

If the Bills are going to focus on one thing this week, I’d think they prioritize getting Khalil Shakir’s efficiency back on track:

• Week 1-9: 93.3% catch rate
• Week 10-17: 61.8% catch rate

Their slot machine is going to be critical if Buffalo is going to make noise this postseason, making it very possible that Shakir will see a few looks early with the first unit.

That said, the featured role that makes him so valuable to the Bills is enough to make me think that his reps are managed in a significant way this weekend, and that has me looking elsewhere (I’d rather take a slot receiver like Adam Thielen this week that is playing in an offense trying to develop their QB as opposed to managing their top option for the playoffs).

Ladd McConkey, WR | LAC (at LV)

Ladd McConkey started his NFL career with a 5-39-1 game against these Raiders, and he figures to be a strong fantasy asset again as he closes an impressive rookie campaign so long as the Chargers value their seed (their win against the Patriots on Saturday assured them of a playoff berth).

If you’re willing to give McConkey a seven-week adjustment period, his pace since Week 8 is noteworthy:

• 100 catches
• 1,491 yards
• Nine touchdowns

The only second-year receivers to hit all of those thresholds in NFL history are Justin Jefferson (2021) and Isaac Bruce (1995).

We could be looking at a special receiver who is going to be afforded the ability to grow alongside a franchise quarterback – this is how difference-making fantasy WRs are created. He’s the franchise’s leader in receptions by a rookie, and I’d wager that more history awaits this versatile steal of a draft pick.

You’re playing McConkey this week, understanding that you need to at least monitor reporting out of Los Angeles when it comes to their level of motivation.

Malik Nabers, WR | NYG (at PHI)

The Giants have nothing to play for and would actually be wise to tank, but if last week was any indication, “tank” is not a word in the vocabulary of Mr. Drew Lock.

Malik Nabers is two catches from the rookie record and that’s just the tip of the iceberg. He is four receptions away from breaking Steve Smith’s franchise record (107 in 2009), and with 135 receiving yards, he can join Odell Beckham Jr., Victor Cruz, Homer Jones, and Del Shofner as the only Giants to average 85 receiving yards per game for a season.

And what better way to wrap up a tough season than to put up some decent numbers against a divisional rival (even if it’s largely against backups with Philadelphia being locked into the NFC’s two-seed)?

Plenty of stars will be limited this weekend, but I’m not sure we’ll see that in New York.

Marvin Harrison Jr., WR | ARI (vs. SF)

To call this season a disappointment numerically for Marvin Harrison Jr. would be an understatement, to say the least. It would be fun to see him finish with exactly seven catches and a score this week to equal the output of his dad in those categories during his rookie season in 1996 with the Colts, but that’s not exactly what we had in mind.

Mirroring his father long-term would be great, but based on where the expectations were entering this season, matching single-year marks from 28 years ago isn’t exactly ideal.

The Cardinals have lost five of six games, and Harrison hasn’t reached expectations based on his target diet in a single one of them. The 49ers held him to 36 yards on a 23.3% target share in Week 5, and that doesn’t exactly fuel optimism for me entering this game.

On the bright side, Arizona is motivated to send the rookie into the offseason on a positive note. He’s seen at least eight targets in four of his past five, and the three Lions who saw at least that many looks against San Francisco on Monday night all scored.

Harrison slips just inside my top 30 this week, ahead of the more veteran receivers like Calvin Ridley, Adam Thielen, and Keenan Allen, who are also playing in games that mean nothing for their team.

Michael Pittman Jr., WR | IND (vs. JAX)

A rising Flacco lifts all boats; that’s what I always say.

Michael Pittman Jr. was the target of Joe Flacco’s first pass last week and ended up posting his first 100-yard game since September. Hell, it was just his second effort with 65+ receiving yards over that stretch in what has largely been a lost season for a player who was selected in the first round of most drafts this past summer.

The Colts have been eliminated, but with Anthony Richardson banged up, this projects to be the Flacco show again, and I’m basically treating him like Jameis Winston these days in that I ramp up the expectancy of all receivers in a major way when he is under center.

Pittman is far from a safe play (he’s owed $18,000,000 next season, so I wouldn’t blame Indianapolis for wanting to get out of 2024 without an injury), but he has posted over 11 expected PPR points in five of his last six and the usage was encouraging last week.

I’m prioritizing risky receivers on motivated teams over him (Romeo Doubs and Jayden Reed, for example), but when it comes to experienced receivers on finished teams, give me Pittman over DK Metcalf (at LAR) or Adam Thielen (at ATL).

Michael Wilson, WR | ARI (vs. SF)

Michael Wilson led the Cardinals in receiving in the Week 5 game in San Francisco, racking up 78 yards on a 20% target share. If there is one member of this Arizona passing game who could use a confidence boost entering 2025, it’s Wilson.

Trey McBride has had a phenomenal season, and Marvin Harrison Jr. isn’t going to struggle to believe in himself anytime soon. Wilson’s counting numbers weren’t there on his six targets, but with 11.6 expected PPR points, we aren’t far off of him being at least worthy of Flex consideration

This is the sort of profile I don’t mind betting on again at a discount next season, but not in Week 18, given that he has reached fantasy expectations just once twice in his past eight games, both of which came against the same opponent (Seattle) – the good news there is that as long as he is a Cardinal, the Seahawks will be on the schedule twice a season!

Mike Evans, WR | TB (vs. NO)

I don’t value the “Player A is close to a financial bonus” narrative, especially since the Buccaneers are more concerned with a playoff berth than anything. That said, when those incentives align with the team’s best interest, I think there’s a good chance to make everyone happy on Sunday.

Evans is five catches and 85 yards away from a $3 million bonus, an 11th straight 1,000-yard season, and likely a divisional title. We are talking about a player who has four multi-end-zone target games this season, bringing his total to 10 over his past 28 contests.

Few players have been able to marry scoring consistency with target volume for a decade-plus the way Evans has and there is absolutely no reason to run from him this weekend in a matchup that no longer features Marshon Lattimore.

Mike Williams, WR | PIT (vs. CIN)

Man, has this been a slow and fruitless grind (is that the opposite of ‘fruitful’? It feels right) for those of us who thought Mike Williams would impact the hierarchy of the AFC?

I’m a stubborn person, and I still think there is a world in which he makes impact plays in high-leverage spots this postseason, but there has been essentially nothing to show for rostering him during his time with the Steelers.

Yes, he has four straight games with the most minor snap share bumps, but the on-field production hasn’t been there in the slightest. Williams owns a 19.1-yard aDOT with Pittsburgh – I’m sure I’ll have money tied up in postseason props with him, especially when they get the Texans (28th in yards per deep completion against) in the first round of the playoffs on a fast track, but we can address that this time next week.

For now, you’re approaching this situation much like the Steelers have and waiting.

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, WR | TEN (vs. HOU)

The Nick Westbrook-Ikhine profile was always a thin one. The touchdowns were great, but they were essentially his only targets, and we are talking about the 30th-ranked scoring offense in the league.

He has just 82 yards to show for his 140 routes over his past four games and can be firmly left out of your Flex consideration this week. Calvin Ridley remains the top option in this passing game, and Mason Rudolph has taken a liking to Chig Okonkwo when it comes to target volume, leaving NWI without a path to much of anything in terms of projectable opportunity.

Nico Collins, WR | HOU (at TEN)

If there is going to be a single receiver to create chaos in the AFC playoffs, Nico Collins would be my pick. It’s likely going to be a difficult road and require plenty of help, but what if things break just right?

What if the Steelers win the AFC North and the Texans get an, at times, iffy Ravens secondary in Round 1? What if they get the Bills in Round 2 and get caught up in a shootout? What if the Chargers shock the Chiefs, and their struggles with athletic receivers are all that separates the Texans with a date from the run-and-gun Lions in New Orleans?

Yes, I think Collins is worth what will be a depressed price in postseason drafts if Pittsburgh wins the North, and those pieces have a chance at falling into place. No, I don’t think we get enough run from him this weekend to play him with the utmost confidence.

Why would Houston play with fire? They’ve already lost two playmaking receivers, and this isn’t exactly a team that has multiple ways to succeed. They rely as heavily on a single RB and a single WR as anyone in the league – I’m projecting nothing more than a casual appearance from the starters in this game.

Collins has cleared 110 air yards in three of his past five games, a role that, if you couldn’t tell, I’m happy to roll the dice on during the postseason.

Parker Washington, WR | JAX (at IND)

There is one player in the NFL who has seen a minimum of three targets over each of the past two weeks and has posted a 100% catch rate with 10+ PPR points in both contests – that would be the pride of Penn State Parker Washington.

No, that’s not the least bit predictive, but it’s nice bar trivia. This Mac Jones-led offense is far from functional, and with one game of a 20% on-field target hare, Washington isn’t the type of profile that screams breakout.

The recent efficiency is good to see, though, and with a snap share north of 74% in five straight games, you could take a DFS flier on a crazier option. I don’t have him ranked as anything more than a Flex option, but the team is clearly interested in what he has to offer as they are using him downfield and in the slot.

He’s been viable in this Christian Kirk/Evan Engram flex sort of role – with both under contract for 2025, this Washington spark is more likely than not to burn out by the time you next draft.

Puka Nacua, WR | LAR (vs. SEA)

Puka Nacua has established himself as one of the best players in the game, and there is no debate about it. He was ejected early in the first meeting with the Seahawks – all he has done since is post a 142.4 catch pace.

We’ve seen the Rams ramp up their desire to get him the ball. Be it a recent surge in rushing attempts or an aDOT that is down 14.9% from his historic rookie season, it’s clear that Los Angeles is well aware that they have something special.

You’re starting him every week of every season for the foreseeable future – Nacua is going to cost you a first-round pick this summer, and the odds are good that he’ll be worth every penny.

Quentin Johnston, WR | LAC (at LV)

I’ve never been so conflicted with a player as I have been with Quentin Johnston. It’s not a secret – I’m very much a numbers guy over an eye test/feel guy. Part of that comes from my math background and part from being 140 pounds soaking wet – I’m built like a researcher more than a receiver, a man of data lines more than a lineman.

Quentin Johnston’s profile looks strong across the board. He’s posted an on-field target share north of 22% in three of his past four games and has five end-zone looks over his past five. He’s operating opposite of Ladd McConkey and that puts him in favorable alignments as defenses can’t send much in the way of resources.

It all sounds so good. Add in the fact that Joshua Palmer is working through a heel injury, and it should be wheels up, right?

And then you flip on a Charger game and see a few drops. You see a few of the lazy routes. It challenges all of the data, and it makes sense why the star hasn’t shined the way he had hoped.

I find myself often relying on matchups with Johnston more than anything, and shockingly enough, this isn’t as good a spot as you want to think. Up to this point, 95.8% of his fantasy points this season have come when lined up out wide, a spot on the field where the Raiders have proven reasonably stingy (top 12 in both yards per attempt, completion percentage, and touchdown rate on perimeter targets).

Johnston is sitting outside of my top 30 at the position, a damning ranking given that his team is motivated to play all out this week.

Rashod Bateman, WR | BAL (vs. CLE)

If you’re not on Rashod Bateman for the 1-12-0 stat line, do you even deserve to be there for the 2-43-1 line?

This is the life of a Bateman manager. He has just a 15.3% on-field target share this season, and that is why I fade him with confidence weekly. However, there’s no denying the upside that comes with this profile.

For the season, Bateman is averaging 25.8 yards per touchdown reception, a number that holds some weight given that he has eight scores this season. Trying to pin the tail on those weeks is a headache-inducing activity, and it certainly wasn’t the case in Week 8 in Cleveland (one catch on five targets for 28 yards), but it’s not hard to talk yourself into taking a flier on a player like this in Week 18.

Cleveland owns the eighth-worst deep pass touchdown rate against this season and sixth worst opponent passer rating on those throws, making them as good a target as any if you’re going to roll the dice on Bateman. He’s more of a DFS pick for me than anything – one that I can hit big with if he happens to be on the right side of a few bombs.

Due to the nature of this week, he’s flirting with my top 35 at the position, a ranking that is more reflective of how impactful big play potential is in a goofy week than my confidence in this specific player.

Robert Woods, WR | HOU (at TEN)

I shared some hope last week that Robert Woods would work himself into a regular role with Tank Dell out, but that went to John Metchie III instead, thus rendering Woods useless at this point.

He’d be a tough sell in a meaningless game anyway, as playing a veteran receiver in a spot like this feels like more risk than reward for a team that is thin at the position as it is. Woods was on the field for just 35.2% of Houston’s snaps a week ago, and at this point in his career, 13 routes aren’t even remotely close to getting my attention.

This passing game is Nico Collins and Dalton Schultz or bust for me moving forward, and I’m not sure either of them will be extended in an impactful way on Sunday.

Rome Odunze, WR | CHI (at GB)

I don’t think “post-hype sleeper” will be an appropriate title for Rome Odunze in 2025, but my evaluation of him hasn’t changed a bit from the preseason. If his ADP falls just because he hasn’t had a Ladd McConkey-type rookie season or isn’t peaking late like Xavier Worthy, I’m going to be overweight on him in redraft situations.

But for Week 18, against a Packers team that is playing for seeding, I don’t think you can play Odunze with much confidence. Yes, he led the Bears in receiving when these teams first squared off (Week 11: 6-65-0 on a 32.3% target share), but when stepping back a touch, this profile isn’t one that I’m betting on in a fantasy championship setting.

The rookie has a 38.9% catch rate over his past three games and has found the end zone in just one of 13 contests. There have been sparks of optimism, and I think he will take on a greater role in 2025 for an offense that I expect to develop, but that’s going to take an offseason worth of work, not a single week.

If you roll out Odunze this week, you’re losing the battle, but I think you’re winning the war by being higher than your competition on him.

Romeo Doubs, WR | GB (vs. CHI)

Romeo Doubs was Jordan Love’s top read on Sunday (37.9% target share). While I’m not confident that will stick, I am confident that the Packers will be playing to avoid the No. 7 seed this postseason, which should at least have Doubs on your radar.

The hard part about this profile is knowing what to believe. Projecting Green Bay’s target shares week over week is a spin of the roulette wheel, and while I’m encouraged by what we saw last week in Minnesota, my eyebrow is raised that we see a flipped profile like that again.

• Week 17: 8.3 aDOT
• Weeks 12-16: 14.3 aDOT

On one hand, I’m encouraged by Green Bay’s willingness to regress his aDOT and give him a more efficient role. Not only did it pay off in Week 17, but it tells me that the team is confident in Doubs’ ability to win on multiple levels.

Even if you don’t think the shortened route tree sticks, a matchup with a bottom-10 defense against deep passes in terms of passer rating, completion percentage, yards per attempt, yards per completion, and interception rate is inviting.

I’ve finally moved Doubs ahead of Jayden Reed this week, but I’ve been burned too many times by the Packers’ passing game to tell you that I entered Week 18 with much confidence in handing out target projections. In terms of raw fantasy points, I have Doubs checking in just ahead of Reed and both of them ahead of Tucker Kraft, though few outcomes would surprise me this week and during the postseason.

For playoff-centric leagues, I like the idea of getting the cheapest of those three and taking your chances on swinging variance in your favor during a surprise Packer run to New Orleans.

Tee Higgins, WR | CIN (at PIT)

Tee Higgins is an alpha receiver, and he showed it last week. Realistically, he’s showed it off most of this season (10 touchdowns in 11 games) and will be getting paid handsomely by someone this offseason.

We will deal with the fallout of Higgins changing teams should it happen this summer, but I can assure you that I’ll be bullish on a talent like this in almost any situation. (Tip to the kids out there, always hedge a statement like that this far in advance with a word like “almost” — we’ve seen some pretty ugly situations across the NFL.)

When it comes to Week 18, why would you have any concerns? Sure, the matchup is less than ideal, but it’s less than ideal for all members of this passing game. And given how Burrow is playing right now, someone is going to produce.

Why not Higgins? His 27% target share in the Week 13 meeting with the Steelers (5-69-1 stat line) led the team, and we’ve finally seen target efficiency from him.

• Last two weeks: 82.6% catch rate
• First 15 weeks: 61.7% catch rate

The Bengals have as much at stake as any team this week, and Higgins is, to my knowledge, fully healthy. When those boxes are checked, you play him and don’t think twice about it.

Terry McLaurin, WR | WAS (at DAL)

So what?

Terry McLaurin was locked down last week (one catch on 41 routes). That stinks if it sunk you during your fantasy playoffs and/or set you back during a two-week matchup.

I’m sure he feels terrible. But in no way should that impact your confidence in Washington’s WR1 this week, during the playoffs, or moving into next season.

In fact, I’d be more likely to argue that last week was a good thing. We’ve seen this in Minnesota, where defenses are daring anybody not named Justin Jefferson to beat them, and they have 14 wins in part because Jordan Addison is making them pay for that game plan.

There isn’t an Addison on this roster, but the Commanders won a game last week in which Olamide Zaccheaus and Zach Ertz were heavily featured and productive (58.3% of the catches and 69.2% of the receiving yards), which could impact how this team is defensed moving forward.

McLaurin cleared 100 yards and scored in Week 12 against Dallas, and with his team playing for seeding, I expect him to be a full-go on Sunday. He’s having a career year (12 touchdown catches are as many as his previous top two seasons combined), and you should be privileged to be able to start him in Week 18.

Tim Patrick, WR | DET (vs. MIN)

The idea of Tim Patrick made sense early in December when he saw 7+ targets in consecutive games for maybe the NFL’s best offense, but those days are pretty clearly behind us.

With Jameson Williams functioning as a full-time threat, Sam LaPorta rediscovering his form, and Jahmyr Gibbs’ usage ramping up after David Montgomery’s injury, there just isn’t any meat left on the bone for Patrick.

Like, literally, no meat. Patrick has been held without a catch on 45 routes over the past two weeks and can safely be overlooked in all spots, even in the more impactful Week 18 game that most are looking for ways to get exposure to.

Tyler Lockett, WR | SEA (at LAR)

Tyler Lockett saw four targets last week in Chicago, and the sheer fact that is notable should tell you all you need to know.

Those four looks were his most in a game since mid-October, and in a plus-matchup, Lockett paid them off with 20 yards. There’s no reason to look this way in any capacity with the Seahawks playing for nothing and Lockett’s statistical profile in clear decline.

The veteran WR is owed $10 million next season, though Seattle has a potential out this summer. If this is Lockett’s last game as a Seahawk, maybe they funnel him a few looks for a touchdown, but that’s about as flimsy of a case as you could possibly make.

Lockett hasn’t averaged over a yard per route since Week 9 and hasn’t cleared 10 expected PPR points since Week 6.

Tyreek Hill, WR | MIA (at NYJ)

Tyreek Hill did it. He was able to produce with Tyler Huntley under center last week, catching all nine of his targets against the Browns for 125 yards.

I loved what I saw from Hill compared to previous Huntley starts. His 9.6-yard aDOT allowed him to be efficient and function in a similar role compared to when Tua Tagovailoa is under center, and that’s exactly what we need.

How much of that was matchup-based (Browns rank 28th in yards per pass attempt allowed this season while the Jets rank 13th)? How much of that was due to Jaylen Waddle sitting out with a knee injury?

We’ll get those answers this weekend as Miami fights to keep their slim playoff hopes alive, though I still have concerns when you take a step back and look at the numbers with/without Huntley:

• With Tagovailoa: 4.1% production over expectation and 11.5 aDOT
• With Huntley: 12.7% production below expectation and 14.3 aDOT

They got better last week, but they still aren’t good. That said, we aren’t sure who is calling the shots for Miami this week. I do anticipate a hefty target share either way (10-115-1 on a 31.1% share in this matchup four weeks ago), and that’s enough to start Hill. Still, you need to be aware that his range of outcomes is very wide should Huntley get the nod again.

Hill’s range of outcomes is pretty wide with Tagovailoa as well, but I’m more willing to pencil him in for top-10 upside this weekend if that’s the case than if Huntley is calling the shots, especially if Waddle were to return.

Wan’Dale Robinson, WR | NYG (at PHI)

Wan’Dale Robinson scored for the first time in nearly two months, but that’s to be expected when Drew Lock looks like a Hall of Famer for 60 minutes.

Consider me just a little skeptical about that sustaining.

That said, even if the quality of the pass falls off a cliff this weekend, last week’s volume was good to see. Robinson and Malik Nabers combined for a 63.6% target share against the Colts, both hauling in a single pass that gained more yards than any of their teammates had received for the entire game.

Robinson is what he is — a PPR scam that should find some room to operate against an Eagles defense that will feature reserves with them locked into the NFC’s No. 2 seed. I’d caution against penciling in much in the way of upside, but 9-12 PPR points is a plenty reasonable assumption, and in the right matchup, that holds value.

Xavier Legette, WR | CAR (at ATL)

Xavier Legette is the YOLO option on a team that is routinely falling behind and, thus, pressed into an aggressive game script. The rookie ran just 25 routes last weekend in Tampa Bay, and yet, he finished the game with 142 air yards, a crazy rate for a player who is not typically featured.

In theory, those two sentences should have me recommending Legette this week, especially against a motivated opponent and on a fast track. Carolina should be playing catch-up for the majority of this game, and with a young nucleus of players, should be looking to throw anything and everything against the wall to see what sticks.

Fantasy matchups, however, are not won on theory alone. We just saw A.J. Terrell give Terry McLaurin fits, and I worry Legette could fall victim to a similar fate. Even if he were to get loose on a deep route or two, are we confident that Carolina’s offense pays it off?

The Panthers rank bottom 10 when throwing long passes this season in passer rating, yards per completion, and interception rate. This role that Legette holds may be one we target in the future, but for right now, it offers more risk than reward.

Xavier Worthy, WR | KC (at DEN)

Stop me if you’ve heard this before — I like where things are headed for the Chiefs as we conclude the regular season and get ready for the playoffs.

Last week, Xavier Worthy joined Saquon Barkley as the only rookie in NFL history with nine targets and multiple rush attempts in three straight games. Not bad company and a clear sign that Andy Reid is getting a handle on the chess pieces at his disposal.

This makes me all sorts of bullish on Worthy’s stock in postseason formats and for 2025. His role will take some adjusting when Rashee Rice returns to action, but not for this week. Reid has spent all season slow playing Worthy’s usage, why would he put the rookie in harm’s way for a meaningless game?

The kicker is that even if Reid were to put Worthy on the field, are we sold he produces? This offense will look different with nothing on the line, and Worthy was held to just a single catch on 37 routes when these two teams met in Week 10.

The Broncos are playing for everything, while the Chiefs are more interested to see how the seeding around them shakes out. Sell any short-term Worthy shares, but buy moving forward past Week 18 in whatever capacity you can.

Zay Flowers, WR | BAL (vs. CLE)

The Ravens are playing for keeps this week, and while it’s been an up-and-down season for Zay Flowers, I think you’re playing him with a reasonable amount of confidence on Saturday.

Flowers’ PPR fantasy points per game are identical to where they stood during his rookie season, but his aDOT is up 23.9%, and his usage in valuable spots has spiked.

Those are positive notes to have for a profile, and when you consider that he is facing the sixth-worst YAC defense in the NFL, Flowers has more than a few ways to burn the Browns and provide you with an impactful stat line.

Baltimore was upset in Cleveland back in Week 8, but it certainly wasn’t the fault of their WR1 (7-115-0 on a 34.3% target share). Counting on that level of production again may be a bit optimistic, but I like Flowers’ chances to score 15+ fantasy points, which lands him inside my top 20 wide receivers this week.

Week 18 Fantasy Football Tight Ends

Brenton Strange, TE | JAX (at IND)

Brenton Strange is filling in for Evan Engram, but he’s not Engram, and Mac Jones isn’t Trevor Lawrence. The playing time is there (70% snap share in two of his past three games), but the floor that comes with a role that can see Strange earn one target on 19 Jones passes is something I have zero interest in gambling on.

The Jags have failed to clear 20 points in six of their past seven games. We have no assurance that a single Jacksonville pass catcher proves worthy of our trust, let alone a tight end with limitations.

Brock Bowers, TE | LV (vs. LAC)

Brock Bowers is eight catches away from tying the all-time tight end record for receptions in a single season (116 by Zach Ertz in 2018) and is 104 yards away from posting a top-10 yardage season all-time at the position.

Forget the rookie numbers that Bowers is extending, this is one of the best seasons ever by a tight end. The Raiders don’t have much to play for, and I don’t think they mind padding the stats of a franchise centerpiece. Bowers has caught 18 of 20 targets over the past two weeks, and it wouldn’t surprise me if they look to get to that all-time reception number.

Even if you don’t want to use a narrative as an excuse, Bowers projects to be on the field. And any time in which that is the case for the next five years, you play him.

Cade Otton, TE | TB (vs. NO)

Cade Otton (knee) was inactive last week, and the Buccaneers’ offense crumbled without him. Oh wait, no, it didn’t. They dropped 48 points and averaged 7.4 yards per play.

He’ll be out again this week. Otton had his moment in the fantasy sun as the Bucs sorted out a rash of receiver injuries, but that time is long gone now, with Jalen McMillan looking very much like an asset for years to come.

Otton’s fantasy numbers and usage rates have fallen off a cliff whenever Mike Evans is on the field. It’s something to keep an eye on next season.

Chig Okonkwo, TE | TEN (vs. HOU)

Few tight ends come with enough big-play potential to offset a low floor, but Chig Okonkwo is the exception. He has three straight games with at least seven targets, and with Mason Rudolph’s average depth of throw trending up (past three games: 5.4 to 6.3 to 8.8), his athletic profile has a direct path to posting top-10 numbers.

Of course, the floor is low, but isn’t that the case for all but maybe five tight ends? Building lineups means betting on some pretty iffy quarterback play, and while Rudolph certainly qualifies as such, we at least have data points that suggest that he is happy to funnel targets to his mismatch of a tight end.

Okonkwo is currently sitting as my TE11 for this weekend, and I don’t have an issue in going this direction as a punt option in DFS contests.

Cole Kmet, TE | CHI (at GB)

I like Caleb Williams as much as anyone when it comes to long-term fantasy outlook, yet even I haven’t once considered Cole Kmet when streaming the position.

Asking a rookie QB to support this many pass catchers is simply too much, and it’s become clear that Kmet isn’t in Williams’ trust circle. Last week, the tight end was held without a target on 28 routes and has just 23 yards to show for 123 routes over his past four games.

In Week 11 against the Packers, Kmet gave us three catches for 42 yards, a production level that feels like a ceiling at this point. That’s not worth the low floor that you’re asked to absorb in going this direction.

Dalton Kincaid, TE | BUF (at NE)

People who play postseason DFS or draft for playoff-long leagues need to be fully aware that Dalton Kincaid’s stock is in the “buy” zone.

The counting numbers have yet to look like last season, but everything underneath the hood looks good to my eye. His target rate is trending toward surpassing last season’s mark, making this an awfully cheap way to bet on the presumptive MVP.

Kincaid is lining up to be a nice post-hype selection next season – that is, if he doesn’t go on a big run through the postseason. In the scope of Week 18, I’m not investing in any Bills player for a game that has no impact on their seeding.

Dalton Schultz, TE | HOU (at TEN)

Tank Dell was lost for the season in Week 16 and over the past two games, Dalton Schultz has posted a 20.9% target rate (2024: 16.6%). A gain like that would have my interest in a big way if we were in the middle of the season and trying to solve a difficult tight end puzzle, but with just one week left and the Texans lacking incentive, I’m not buying into the recent usage uptick.

I’d be surprised if you got a full share of snaps for Schultz this week. Even if you do, we could be looking at a lot of Davis Mills on Sunday. I’m happy to not take on this sort of risk for what I view as very ordinary rewards.

David Njoku, TE | CLE (at BAL)

David Njoku was inactive last week with a knee injury. Considering that the team is on the hook for another season, I can’t imagine that they put a compromised version of him on the field this weekend.

That means that if the Browns play him, you follow suit (10+ targets in each of his past three appearances). I’m not counting on that, however, and I’d encourage you to look away from this Cleveland offense for a streaming option.

It’s worth noting that Njoku averaged 9.9% more PPR points per target without Deshaun Watson under center this season.

Dawson Knox, TE | BUF (at NE)

Dawson Knox hasn’t reached 60 receiving yards since Dalton Kincaid was drafted, and with the second-year tight end back to earning targets, there’s really no need for this team to feature their backup option in any sort of meaningful way.

He’s averaging 14.1 yards per catch this season, and the occasional big play could prove critical as Buffalo chases their first NFL championship – just because he means something to this team doesn’t mean he holds value in this game of ours.

George Kittle, TE | SF (at ARI)

George Kittle earned a 37.5% target share in Week 5 against these Cardinals (8-64-1 stat line) and his role seems stable, even with the 49ers simply playing out the string of the season.

It’s been a weird relationship for fantasy managers and Kittle over the past two seasons – his ceiling has proven to be nothing short of elite, but the floor can be maddening. This year, however, we got more consistency. It stands to reason that 2025 could look a lot like 2024.

Kittle is 31 years old, and that introduces some age-curve concerns, but I expect to be in line with the consensus on him this summer. That means I’ll be investing should my roster construction point in that direction.

Grant Calcaterra, TE | PHI (vs. NYG)

The Eagles are locked into the No. 2 seed in the NFC and thus have nothing to play for, something that makes counting on any of their pieces difficult to do with confidence this weekend.

Grant Calcaterra has earned just a pair of targets on his 46 routers over the past two weeks. That could change should his star teammates be managed this week, but you also have to factor in a dip in the value of each target earned not coming from Jalen Hurts.

I’m not digging this deep at the position – there are other creative avenues to consider that I like more (Mike Gesicki, Juwan Johnson, and others).

Hunter Henry, TE | NE (vs. BUF)

When these two teams met in Week 16, Hunter Henry led the Patriots with eight targets, turning them into a very usable 39-yard, one-touchdown performance. Much like what the Saints are doing these days to mask their deficiencies, New England went tight-end-heavy in that game (Austin Hooper added four grabs for 55 yards).

I’m not sure why we’d expect anything different this week. Yes, Henry was shut out last week against the Chargers and you know you’re taking on a low floor whenever you bet on a rookie signal caller. But with 15 catches on 84 routes over his three games before Week 17, Henry profiles as a viable option.

He’s hovering around TE15 this week in my rankings – he’s a fine punt play and could be the lone valuable piece in a game that otherwise means nothing.

Isaiah Likely, TE | BAL (vs. CLE)

I’m as intrigued as anyone as to how these playoff teams are giving us little hints as to what could be coming. Isaiah Likely was on the field for a season-high 77% of Baltimore’s snaps last week in the blowout of the Texans. While some of that was undoubtedly the result of game flow, I maintain my thought that Todd Monken is going to get this physical mismatch on the field more for his third NFL postseason.

None of that helps you this week. Even with the extended playing time, Likely’s role held a sub-three-point projection, making him an impossible sell. With Mark Andrews gobbling up all of the valuable looks, Likely needs volume to matter. We are a long way away from projecting him to get that.

I’ll probably be holding Likely prop tickets when the Ravens take the field this postseason, but my willingness to be bold with him doesn’t start in Week 18.

Jake Ferguson, TE | DAL (vs. WAS)

Jake Ferguson lost a fumble last week, but he was reasonably involved, continuing a trend that we’ve seen lately (14 targets on 44 routes over his past two games). There is an upside to target here with CeeDee Lamb out and Dallas labeled as a 3.5-point underdog. Luke Schoonmaker was able to get loose against Washington when these teams met in Week 12 for 55 yards and a touchdown, a role that is Ferguson’s to lose.

That said, it’s difficult to go in this direction with much confidence. We are nearly two months removed from the last time Ferguson cleared 40 receiving yards. The Commanders’ defense isn’t one to fear, but they will be functioning at full strength – not a worry for options like Hunter Henry or Will Dissly. For me, he ranks in the same range as Juwan Johnson and Cole Kmet as focused TEs on poor offenses facing a team with something to play for.

Ja’Tavion Sanders, TE | CAR (at ATL)

Ja’Tavion Sanders showed nice playmaking potential early in the season, but he’s now an afterthought and can be safely left alone this week.

The rookie has been on the field for under 60% of Carolina’s offensive snaps in five straight games and over his past three contests, he’s earned just three targets on his 82 routes. His recent trajectory gives me little confidence that he can repeat the five-catch performance he gave us against Atlanta back in Week 6. I’m keeping Sanders on my radar for 2025 sleepers at the position, but that breakout doesn’t appear likely to start on Sunday.

Jonnu Smith, TE | MIA (at NYJ)

The Jonnu Smith story is a good example of why you have to keep an open mind at these onesie positions. At no point during this offseason did I think a tight end in this very concentrated passing attack would return value. When Tua Tagovailoa was injured early in the season, I certainly wasn’t walking back that stance.

But I was wrong in this instance – Smith has been nothing short of great and is deserving of your trust with your season on the line. The veteran has at least six targets or a touchdown in seven straight games, production that has come in light of injuries all over the place.

The Jets shut him out for all of regulation in the Week 14 game, but Miami unlocked their tight end in overtime and featured him as they marched down the field (3-44-1). We don’t yet have much in the way of clarity when it comes to the status of Tua Tagovailoa or Jaylen Waddle – that matters for the Dolphins, but not for my confidence in Smith.

Juwan Johnson, TE | NO (at TB)

Juwan Johnson is a little too thin for me in redraft formats, but a player like this should have the interest of DFS players as a punt play at the position. He was able to earn 10 targets (34 routes) against the Raiders. I expect most to be worried about the involvement of Foster Moreau (five targets, TD), but I’m spinning that as a positive.

This offense has next to nothing when it comes to players who threaten the defense, and that means an awfully low-octane “attack.” We saw Johnson function as a regular in their passing game and that should continue as this unit lacks avenues to create big plays. No, my mind doesn’t change if we get a limited Chris Olave on the field, either.

The Bucs rank worse than the league average in both completion percentage and YAC to the tight end position. I don’t think it’s crazy to think that Johnson clears 8.5 PPR points for the fifth time in seven games or that he repeats his double-figure showing from last weekend.

Kyle Pitts, TE | ATL (vs. CAR)

Did anyone else get flashbacks watching Kyle Pitts make big plays against the Commanders last week?

For me, it was less about the plays on the field (we get those from time to time) and more about the sucking us back in. We see a promising young QB come in and bump up the value of a player with elite pedigree and profile – this has all the making of Lucy holding the football for Charlie Brown again.

Listen, I’m not all the way out on Pitts (he has four top-10 finishes this season and I’m guessing that’s more than you thought), but I’m going to need much more than one data point to undo the damage that Pitts has done to many a redraft/dynasty/DFS roster.

In taking a step back from the Week 17 excitement, you’ll realize that Pitts’ target rate in two Michael Penix Jr. starts (16.3% of routes) is right in line with the rate we were previously complaining about (16.9%).

Pitts had a 52-yard catch in the Week 6 matchup against the Panthers and is playing for a highly motivated team – that’s what has him on the fringe of TE1 status for me this week more than his big play last week.

Mark Andrews, TE | BAL (vs. CLE)

Mark Andrews has scored on 16.4% of his targets this season, a massive surge from his rate over the previous two years (6.3%). I could bore you with the “why this is unsustainable” math and we will get there this offseason, but realistically, you’re only worried about this week. With that in mind, I have no issue with betting on him.

He and Isaiah Likely caught all nine of their targets (83 yards, TD) in the Week 8 loss in Cleveland, usage that I think is here to stay. Touchdowns generally aren’t sticky, but when an experienced option sees an end-zone target in five straight games for one of the league’s most efficient offenses, it’s not a bad bet.

Andrews is my TE6 this week – it’s been a wild ride from elite option, to drop candidate, and ultimately a lineup lock.

Mike Gesicki, TE | CIN (at PIT)

The idea of Mike Gesicki is so sound, but the production has been spotty. We saw the de facto WR3 on this offense run 42 routes last week and pay it off with 86 yards (12 targets). I’d love to tell you that we can copy/paste that usage over into the finale – another must-win game – but I can’t.

In the middle of the season, we saw Gesicki earn 23 targets across three games, only to follow that up with a five-game stretch that netted just 16 looks. Further impacting his floor is the type of target he’s been seeing (six straight games without an end-zone opportunity).

There is certainly variance to consider, but if you’re simply targeting a profile, Gesicki’s as a professional route runner in a pass-heavy script should have your attention. In the Week 13 meeting with the Steelers, he caught all five of his targets for 53 yards – I think that’s about what you can expect with the season on the line.

Pat Freiermuth, TE | PIT (vs. CIN)

I thought we could see a change in passing game usage from the Steelers as the postseason picture comes into focus – I just thought Mike Williams would be the focus of it.

Instead, Pittsburgh is sliding Pat Freiermuth into the slot (three straight games with the majority of his routes coming when lined up there) and I actually like how it looks with the threat of George Pickens on the outside.

He owns an 85.1% catch rate this season and turned a 19.4% target share into a 6-68-1 stat line in this matchup five weeks ago. I’m not projecting him for a repeat performance in terms of production, but I think that level of involvement is about right. In what could be a high-scoring game, I think you’re playing Freiermuth with more confidence this week than any of the first 17.

Sam LaPorta, TE | DET (vs. MIN)

Sam LaPorta’s spot on the field was never in question. With his target rate trending toward the strong numbers he put up as a rookie, there should be no hesitation in playing him in the most impactful game of Week 18.

In fact, the first meeting with the Vikings has proven to be symbolic of a turning point. In that Week 7 clash, LaPorta hauled in just one pass on an 8% target share. He was heavily involved the following week in a one-sided win over the Titans (6-48-1) and has sustained nice growth from his slow start to the season.

LaPorta may not be the best pass catcher on this offense, but his role holds value and given the injuries on the defensive end, this offense needs to be clicking on all cylinders to earn the NFC’s top seed.

T.J. Hockenson, TE | MIN (at DET)

If you invested in T.J. Hockenson, now is as good a time as any to roll him out there. Sam Darnold is playing at a high level, and while the production hasn’t jumped off the screen up to this point, six straight games with at least five targets hold value for a player holding this level of upside.

I have him ranked as a top-10 option due to the lack of options in Week 18, but there is no denying that there is risk. After all, Hock has just one end-zone target in his last eight games. The valuable usage in this over-achieving offense is being chewed up by Justin Jefferson, per usual, and a breaking-out Jordan Addison (at least one end-zone target in five of his past seven games and multiple such looks in three of his past five).

Hockenson was inactive for the Week 7 meeting with the Lions and Johnny Mundt earned a 19.2% target share. That role is encouraging. It resulted in just 4.8 PPR points for Mundt, but I’d happily take my chances with a 20-22% share and be on my way.

Travis Kelce, TE | KC (at DEN)

Was a vintage Travis Kelce Week 17 performance (8-84-1 in Pittsburgh) a sign of things to come? It’s certainly possible (it was just 12 months ago when he posted a 32-355-3 playoff stat line), but I’m not counting on him playing enough, if even at all, this weekend with the No. 1 seed locked up.

Noah Gray enters the week ranked fourth among 34 tight ends (minimum 40 targets) in PPR points per target this season, behind only Mark Andrews, George Kittle, and Tucker Kraft. He’s the next man up. If Kelce sits, it likely means that Patrick Mahomes will, too. Even so, Gray is worthy of a look in weekly formats.

If you’re streaming the position, I’d want confirmation that Gray is starting before entertaining the idea of going this way to close the season (Kelce in Week 10 against the Broncos: 8-64-1).

Trey McBride, TE | ARI (vs. SF)

Trey McBride is a special player and his Week 17 performance was just the latest example:

Trey McBride recorded his third game with 12+ catches in a game this season – he’s the first TE EVER to do that and just the 11th player to do so.

A fourth game would tie him atop the all-time list for such games in a single season with Cris Carter (1995) & CeeDee Lamb (2023). pic.twitter.com/CD1SniejFF

— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) December 29, 2024

I have him penciled in for my TE1 overall next season. That may be a little more aggressive than most, there’s no debating that he is a Tier 1 option at the position. The Cardinals may not need this game, but there are no signs that they will rest their star tight end. With him proving to be as much of a reception vacuum as anyone at the position (30% target share in the Week 5 meeting with these 49ers), he’s a top-five play.

McBride has 170 catches over his past 25 games and could become the NFL’s first tight end with a pair of 100-catch seasons over his first four years in the league.

Tucker Kraft, TE, | GB (vs. CHI)

This is going to shock you, but the uncertainty in target hierarchy when it comes to the receivers in Green Bay spills over to the tight end position. Tucker Kraft has proven capable of making plays when given the opportunity. While there is enough potential in this profile to land him inside my top 10 with the Packers motivated to avoid the Eagles in the first round of the playoffs, there’s no overlooking the risk that comes with a sporadic role:

• Week 14 at Lions: 21.7% on-field target share
• Week 15 at Seahawks: 7.4% on-field target share
• Week 16 vs. Saints: 21.1% on-field target share
• Week 17 at Vikings: 10.3% on-field target share

Kraft (one target) was shut out in Chicago in Week 11, due in large part to Green Bay throwing just 17 passes. I’m not reading too far into that, preferring the matchup as a whole (third-most yards allowed per pass) over a single data point.

Tyler Conklin, TE | NYJ (vs. MIA)

Tyler Conklin caught all eight targets last weekend in Buffalo and scored his third touchdown of the season, a performance that wasn’t felt by most.

Should we bank on it continuing this weekend?

He’s not a safe option by any means, but I do think there is a level of safety here that is easy to overlook. From a macro standpoint, five targets are valuable at the tight end position and Conklin has hit that mark in four straight contests. When digging into the micro details, you’ll understand why we had Conklin ranked ahead of the industry average last week – opponent gameplan.

The Bills function defensively to take away the perimeter and keep everything in front of them. They play with coverage over the top and try to funnel receivers toward the boundary as they run downfield – they dare you to beat them with paper cuts.

The Jets didn’t succeed, but that game plan did result in their tight end being heavily involved. Buffalo owns the second-lowest opponent aDOT. I’ll give you one guess for who ranks second in that metric.

You got it, Miami. We could be looking at 5-7 targets and, in a week where production is going to be tough to project, that should be enough to justify a look.

Will Dissly, TE | LAC (at LV)

Will Dissly returned last weekend from a shoulder injury that cost him two weeks. While I value what he brings to the table for the Chargers, the fantasy impact is minimal at best.

This season, Dissly owns a shallow route tree (4.9-yard average depth of target) and that’s a tough sell in a run-first offense led by a receiver like Ladd McConkey. Like most tight ends, he needs to find paydirt to pay off. With just one end-zone target on his 2024 résumé, I can’t get him higher than TE15 this week.

Zach Ertz, TE | WAS (at DAL)

Zach Ertz didn’t turn 34 years of age until Week 11 and yet, his five touchdowns this season as a 34-year-old are tied for the most by a player this season (Adam Thielen also has five, but he’s been 34 years old all season).

The veteran was productive in Week 12 against these Cowboys (6-38-1) and the Commanders are playing for seeding against the second-worst scoring defense since Week 6 (29.5 points allowed per game, only the Panthers have been worse). That’s more than enough to land Ertz inside of my top 10 at the position this week.

While I’m not weighing it heavily, he’s within shouting distance of a trio of contract incentives that would pay fantasy managers just as much as it would him. Ertz receives $250,000 for every threshold he hits of a 70-700-8 season stat line. He needs nine catches, 90 yards, and two scores.