Soppe’s Week 12 Fantasy Football Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em: Analysis for Every Player in Every Game

This game of ours is one of very little separation, and that makes every decision critical. As much as I’d love to help every one of you with your specific questions (I’ll try — @KyleSoppePFN), that’s a big ask.

What I can give you, every single week, are my takes. My statistical-backed rankings are available, but you, the devoted fantasy manager, need more than simply a number next to a name. You need to know why I stand where I do, and that’s my goal with this novel.

If you have a question, hit me up on Twitter, but my hope is that this extended piece will give you the insight you’re looking for without relying on me landing on your specific question before lineups lock.

You don’t have to get ready if you stay ready — this piece, is me staying ready to help you win the week!

Looking to make a trade in your fantasy league? Having trouble deciding who to start and who to sit? Setting DFS lineups? Check out PFN’s Free Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer, Start/Sit Optimizer, and DFS Lineup Optimizer to help you make the right decision!

Week 12 Fantasy Football Quarterbacks

Anthony Richardson, QB | IND (vs. DET)

Anthony Richardson returned to the starting role and looked reasonably viable against the Jets. In the win, he completed five of seven passes (71.4%) when blitzed, a big step forward from his 28.1% completion percentage in such spots prior.

Of course, this is a tiny sample. We are also nitpicking the least important part of the fantasy profile.

Since the start of last season, Richardson has more rushing touchdowns than Aaron Jones and the same number (seven) as Lamar Jackson — the man has played 11 games of a possible 28 over that stretch.

The first touchdown last week was a two-yarder where he threw a stiff arm behind the line of scrimmage and plowed into paydirt — nothing we haven’t seen from him in the past, but great to see a lack of hesitation.

Passing very much remains a work in progress, and that’s going to prevent me from ranking Richardson as a top-12 option. But his skill set keeps him in that conversation, especially in a game where Indianapolis is chasing points.

The five highest-scoring QBs against the Lions this season have all run for at least 29 yards, giving Richardson truthers some hope that this is a spike week. We know that we are looking at a boom/bust option with as wide a range of outcomes at the position as anyone in the league.

Baker Mayfield, QB | TB (at NYG)

If we are going to complain about the rash of receiver injuries this season, we have to give their offenses a bump when they return. So with Mike Evans (hamstring) expected back for this contest, I have Baker Mayfield ranked as a fantasy starter this weekend.

Mayfield’s yards per attempt have declined in four straight games, but didn’t I see C.J. Stroud struggle following the Nico Collins injury and Patrick Mahomes’ numbers look different without Rashee Rice?

Since the start of 2023, 10.5% of Mayfield’s passes thrown to Evans have resulted in scores, a rate that more than doubles his number to all other Buccaneers (4.7%).

The Giants boast a top-10 defense in terms of pressure rate, a strength that Mayfield is capable of undoing, given that he is averaging a respectable 3.1 rushing fantasy points per game.

Tampa Bay is a road favorite in this spot and should flirt with 30 points. If that’s the case, Mayfield likely finishes Week 12 as a top-10 signal-caller, which is how I have it ranked.

Bo Nix, QB | DEN (at LV)

Bo Nix has a pair of finishes inside of the top three at the position over the past four weeks, matching Josh Allen in that regard for the season. He’s far from a finished product, but for our game, he’s already an asset.

We saw some of the development from Nix in Denver’s first drive last week — he completed four of five passes while targeting four different players and firing a touchdown in the process. He’s checking all of the boxes we want, and that lands him inside my top 10 this week against a defense that allows the third most yards per slot pass attempt this season.

Why highlight that specific stat? Nix is a cool 13-of-13 for 141 yards and a touchdown to the slot over the past two weeks. Buckle up, this isn’t a flash in the pan!

Brandon Allen, QB | SF (at GB)

With Brock Purdy’s status up in the air, Brandon Allen is the next man up. The career back-up has thrown just 37 passes since the beginning of 2021 and doesn’t boast the kind of athletic profile that it takes to overcome a career 56.7% completion percentage.

Should Allen take over, Green Bay’s defense could prove to be a slate breaker. They are the third best team at creating pressure when blitzing and you can rest assured that they’d be looking to heat up the 32-year old. The value of Deebo Samuel and George Kittle are at risk, though I still think you’re playing them this week despite the lowerd expectations.

Brock Purdy, QB | SF (at GB)

Not having George Kittle pretty clearly hurt Brock Purdy last week against Seattle, as he averaged just 5.7 yards per pass, more than a full yard below any other game for him this season. He’s battling a sore right shoulder that requires some monitoring but isn’t expected to significantly limit him.

Purdy has completed 46 of 64 passes (71.9%) since Christian McCaffrey returned, a movement toward his elite-efficiency form that we saw all of last season. The rushing numbers are why I’m not selling any of my Purdy shares right now (four rushing scores over his past four games and a 454-yard pace).

The aggressive Packers, in my mind, are vulnerable to the type of calculated offense that Kyle Shanahan designs, and that is why I have Purdy ranked as a top-10 signal caller this week. The 49ers face the Dolphins and Lions in Weeks 16-17, games I want exposure to, but if those games are going to matter, San Francisco needs to show some signs of life.

I like Purdy more than you this week and have him as a legitimate buy in DFS contests.

Bryce Young, QB | CAR (vs. KC)

To say it’s been rough sledding for Bryce Young up to this point in his career would be undershooting things, but at least fantasy managers haven’t been tempted to invest in him or the pieces attached to him. Through 21 career starts, Young stacks up with some…names.

• Young through start No. 21: 72 passer rating, 15 TDs, 16 INTs, and 5.4 yards/attempt
• Zach Wilson through start No. 21: 71.8 passer rating, 15 TDs, 17 INTs, and 6.5 yards/attempt
• JaMarcus Russell through start No. 21: 70.9 passer rating, 15 TDs, 13 INTs, and 6.3 yards/attempt
• Brandon Weeden through start No. 21: 70.7 passer rating, 22 TDs, 27 INTs, and 6.4 yards/attempt

I have more optimism for Young long-term than the three others, but that’s obviously setting a low bar.

This is a brutal matchup, and while we’ve seen some minor forward steps over the past month, Young is a ways away from viable in standard formats. With six teams on a bye, Superflex managers aren’t going to have a better QB2 option, and I’d still prefer him to an RB3/WR3 type, given that our game is more friendly toward signal-callers and that the Panthers are motivated to let him work through struggles.

Caleb Williams, QB | CHI (vs. MIN)

We are getting breadcrumbs when it comes to the pedigree of Caleb Williams.

OK, more like a singular crumb. The man hasn’t thrown a touchdown in the USA since Week 5, so let’s not get carried away; but with over 45 rushing yards in three of his past five, there are signs of a plan when it comes to his path to fantasy stardom.

Williams shouldn’t be near redraft rosters right now, and I don’t expect that to change, but you can mark this down. I’ll be in on him next season after having a full season to adjust to the speed of the pro game and work with his talented nucleus.

C.J. Stroud, QB | HOU (vs. TEN)

Nico Collins returned last week, and the results for C.J. Stroud were … well, they were nothing like what we expected.

With his WR1 back, I didn’t expect a zero-TD, lowest-aDOT-of-the-season performance against the vulnerable Cowboys. Of course, all of that changes if the 77-yard touchdown to Collins on the first play stands, but it didn’t and this offense was far more conservative than I thought we’d see.

I don’t think what we saw last week was a sign of things to come, but the Titans are the second-best defense in terms of yards per pass against, making them a less-than-perfect opponent for this offense to hit its stride.

All of that said, I do expect the rust to be knocked off and for Stroud to come out with more aggression this week than last. I’m starting him where I have him, though I do have him ranked closer to QB12 than QB5.

Cooper Rush, QB | DAL (at WAS)

Are we sure that he is going to continue to start? Trey Lance looms, and the sheer risk of an in-game benching is enough to talk me out of getting creative in two-QB leagues.

Cooper Rush threw 55 passes on Monday night, this coming the same day when his coach didn’t hesitate to tell the ESPN broadcast that the goal is to not have him throw 40 times. Dallas is fully aware that its path to competing is not to go to a pass-heavy script, and when the organization is actively trying to limit the fantasy production of its QB, we are wise to listen.

Lance’s skill set carries more fantasy potential — we can address that situation should it come to light.

Drake Maye, QB | NE (at MIA)

Since Drake Maye took over in Week 6, there’s a three-way tie atop the league in terms of games with at least 18 rushing yards and a passing score. Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, and Maye all have five such games.

Is that a cherry-picked stat to fit my needs? It sure is, but the point remains that we are looking at a player that is more impactful in fantasy wins and losses than real-life results at this point.

Any rookie is going to come with a wide range of weekly outcomes, and Maye is no exception. That risk is built into my QB14 ranking, as I expect it to be an aggressive script against the only defense in the NFL yet to intercept a deep pass.

Miami also owns the fourth-lowest sack rate, meaning we could get a glimpse of Maye’s upside as a passer. Could this be the week we see it all come together for the third overall pick?

I’m not projecting him as a starter, but I’m not ruling it out, and I will have some shares in the DFS streets.

Gardner Minshew II, QB | LV (vs. DEN)

Gardner Minshew II has more games with zero touchdown passes than with multiple touchdown strikes, making him a tough sell against anyone, let alone the fourth-best yards-per-attempt pass defense in the sport.

There simply aren’t enough weapons on this Vegas roster to elevate the status of an ordinary QB, and that’s not going to change coming down the stretch of this season.

Geno Smith, QB | SEA (vs. ARI)

Geno Smith won the game last week with a sprint to the pylon, a saving grace for an otherwise ineffective fantasy day at the office.

Smith has failed to throw a touchdown pass in two of his past three contests and has just two efforts with multiple TD tosses this season, fueling three finishes outside of the top 20 over his past five games.

The rushing production is too spotty and the passing game is too conservative to count on Smith in most one-QB formats. This matchup doesn’t scare me, though it is worth noting that the Cardinals rank as the 10th-best red-zone defense, but I think Seattle attacks the fourth-worst run defense more with Kenneth Walker III than Smith’s right arm.

Jalen Hurts, QB | PHI (at LAR)

It’s hard to contextualize this run of production. Jalen Hurts now has at least 11 rushing touchdowns in three straight seasons. Some players without three such seasons on their NFL résumés include Christian McCaffrey, Jerome Bettis, Tiki Barber, and Arian Foster.

I don’t love the fact that Hurts has only four games this season with multiple touchdown passes, but given how stable his rushing production is, it really doesn’t matter. How do you slow down a unique athlete like this? In theory, you keep him in the pocket, but Hurts has honed that aspect of his game.

In-pocket production, 2024:

• 75.2% completion percentage
• 40.5% first-down rate
• 9.2 yards per attempt

Hurts is the best goal-line player in the game while producing in a similar fashion from the pocket as Joe Burrow. Only time will tell if the Eagles can have success in the postseason, but in terms of our game, there hasn’t been a more reliable option for going on three seasons.

Jameis Winston, QB | CLE (vs. PIT)

The Browns are embracing the Jameis Winston experience (133 pass attempts in his three starts), and that’s all fantasy streamers could possibly ask for.

This play-calling style has resulted in a pair of top-10 finishes, but asking for a ceiling outcome against the best defense, for my money, in the league, one that just held the Ravens to 16 points, is tough. Winston will likely have his moments in this game, but I’m not at all comfortable in assuming that the good plays come close to outweighing the negatives.

I have my concerns about Cleveland being able to establish anything close to a viable run game, and the second you become one-dimensional against Pittsburgh, you’ve lost. I don’t think we’ve seen the last peak in the Winston rollercoaster, but you can cut ties in single-QB formats given that the Browns get the Broncos, Steelers, and Chiefs following this game.

Jared Goff, QB | DET (at IND)

When Jared Goff is given time and playing with confidence, this offense is poetry in motion. He now has five games this season with multiple passing scores and no more than five incompletions, the first player to do that in the 2000s. In fact, the only other QB with five such regular season games since the start of 2021 is Lamar Jackson.

The Colts concede the sixth-highest red-zone completion percentage (65.2%), a flaw that allows me to elevate a pocket-locked QB like Goff inside of my top 10. He’s posted three finishes inside the top five this year, and while I don’t think we get there this week, I’m starting him where I have him (my Week 12 rank: QB7).

Jayden Daniels, QB | WAS (vs. DAL)

A rookie wall? I’m not going that far, but there’s no denying that Jayden Daniels hasn’t been the same since suffering his rib injury in Week 7.

• Weeks 1-7: 75.6% completion percentage, 107.0 passer rating
• Week 8-11: 59.5% completion percentage, 89.6 passer rating

Daniels has failed to reach 210 passing yards in three straight. More concerning for our purposes is that he’s rushed for a total of 23 yards over the past two weeks. I’m reading this as a reason to watch him with a close eye, but I’m holding off full-blown panic for another week.

Lamar Jackson completed 80% of his passes and picked up 14.7 rushing points against these Cowboys, while Jalen Hurts had a 70% completion rate with 17.6 points on the ground against them.

I have Daniels ranked as a must-start in all formats this weekend and am optimistic about his ability to get your fantasy team to the finish line coming out of the Week 14 bye for the fantasy postseason.

Jordan Love, QB | GB (vs. SF)

Jordan Love is having a difficult time stringing four strong quarters together. That is preventing him from living up to the expectations we laid out this summer.

Love has thrown an interception in all eight of his games, with a mistake coming in the red zone in two of the past three matchups. Turnovers generally don’t bother me as much as they do others if they come as a result of aggression, but those interceptions hold more weight when they take sure fantasy points off the board and turn them into a negative.

The desperate 49ers don’t exactly profile as a bounce-back spot. They are the top unit when it comes to defending the deep pass (46.2 passer rating and 32.8% completion percentage). For a quarterback struggling with consistency, a matchup against a defense that limits the splash plays as well as anyone isn’t ideal.

Not all is lost, Love managers. Green Bay’s first drive was a masterpiece (four different players had a 10-yard touch), and Love had a gutsy run late in the game to get the offense to the goal line before finishing the drive with his first rushing score of the season.

I remain optimistic about the long-term outlook, but for Week 12, I can’t justify ranking Love as a starter. He hasn’t posted a top-10 performance since Week 6, and I don’t think he gets there on Sunday (my QB14 this week).

Justin Herbert, QB | LAC (vs. BAL)

The development of this Chargers team has been a great story to track, and Justin Herbert’s fantasy stock has been soaring as a result. The fifth-year signal-caller has posted four straight QB1 finishes as a result of him doing a bit of everything.

Not only has Herbert not thrown an interception since Week 2, allowing him to stay on the field and produce, but he’s cleared 4.5 fantasy points on the ground in three of the last four games, rush attempts that have been a mix of design and determination. He’s checking every box you could ask for, and this matchup only serves as an amplifier.

During this four-game run, Herbert has thrown a touchdown on 16.7% of his deep passes, a massive step forward from the 4.9% rate he posted over his 24 games prior. That’s a great trend by itself, as it provides the ability to overcome minor slumps like what we saw on Sunday night. But in this matchup, it’s gold.

The Ravens cough up the fourth-most yards per deep pass attempt this season, and with a total hovering around 50 points, it’s not hard to envision a game that much resembles Week 11’s 34-27 win over the Bengals.

The schedule toughens at the wrong time for fantasy managers (Chiefs in Week 14 and Broncos in Week 16), but in the scope of this week, you should feel great about having a Monday night hammer.

Kyler Murray, QB | ARI (at SEA)

Kyler Murray’s profile is evolving in a way I didn’t expect, and, to be honest, I’m here for it.

Murray’s passer rating on deep passes this season is up from 44.7 last year to 110.6 this year, numbers that were aided by him completing a franchise record 17 straight passes in Week 10 against the Jets. That game featured a season-low 4.6-yard aDOT, symbolic of an offensive shift (sub-6.5-yard aDOT in four of his past five games) that has him owning the highest passing floor of his young career.

We, as fantasy managers, have had to surrender some of the rushing production to get access to this growth. Murray opened the season with three straight games of 45 rushing yards, but he only has two such games since (two touchdowns against the Jets helped mask the limited rush count).

I’m more than happy to make that trade.

We know the rushing talent is in this profile and that it can reemerge at a moment’s notice. Murray has proven to be lethal from the pocket lately (79.7% completion percentage over his past three games), and if that proves sticky, he gives himself the ability to lead the position in points in any given week.

Could this be that week with Josh Allen on bye and Lamar Jackson in Los Angeles to face the Chargers? I think it’s possible — at the very least, Murray is set up to be the most productive QB on the DFS main slate.

Lamar Jackson, QB | BAL (at LAC)

Lamar Jackson is coming off his worst performance of the season, and this matchup isn’t exactly a get-right spot. Through 11 weeks, the Chargers own the fourth-highest sack rate despite blitzing at a bottom-10 rate, a unique level of defensive production that could cause the reigning MVP some problems.

Jackson’s completion percentage when pressured without a blitz sits at 41.8% this season, down from 56.3% in 2023. Of course, the passing numbers are only half the battle when slowing Jackson, and we saw Kyler Murray peel off for a 44-yard score against the Chargers back in Week 7.

For my money, Jackson is as close to matchup-proof as any QB in the league. I’ve dropped him as low as he’ll get in my rankings — he’s sitting at the bottom of my top tier and an unquestioned starter in every format imaginable.

Matthew Stafford, QB | LAR (vs. PHI)

Matthew Stafford’s accuracy was on full display in New England on Sunday, and that is what it takes for a QB like this to return value. His 69-yard touchdown strike to Cooper Kupp was placed perfectly to beat the Cover 0 defense, and he dropped a 19-yard dime into the bucket for a Colby Parkinson score.

He’s been strong in the four weeks since getting his two receivers back (go figure!), posting a 6.6% pass touchdown rate, up from 1.5% through Week 7. That all sounds great, but guess what? He’s only the 10th-best per-game QB over that stretch, one that resembles much more of a ceiling than a realistic expectation.

We know the Eagles have the ability to sustain long drives, something that limits the possession count, and they are the fifth-best red-zone defense in the league. I’m not confident in projecting top-15 numbers for a pocket passer like Stafford in this matchup — I’d rather take my chances on Anthony Richardson (vs. DET) this week.

Patrick Mahomes, QB | KC (at CAR)

Patrick Mahomes can be the most feared quarterback in real life while also being an afterthought in our game, and that is the space in which he is currently living. What do these quarterbacks have in common?

• Anthony Richardson
• Daniel Jones
• Justin Fields

Yes, they’ve all been benched this season, that’s factually accurate. But they all also have more top-10 finishes this season than Mahomes, how crazy is that?

It goes without saying that nothing about this matchup is intimidating, but the flaws that have presented themselves all season long could be magnified on Sunday — the need for big numbers. With Kansas City a double-digit road favorite, there’s even more risk than normal that No. 15 won’t be relied on at the rate we need. I have Mahomes ranked as my QB12 this week, putting him right on the fringe.

• QB9: Bo Nix (at LV)
• QB10: Baker Mayfield (at NYG)
• QB11: Tua Tagovailoa (vs. NE)
• QB12: Patrick Mahomes (at CAR)
• QB13: Jordan Love (vs. SF)
• QB14: Drake Maye (at MIA)

Russell Wilson, QB | PIT (at CLE)

Russell Wilson has delivered some highlight plays, but don’t let those social clips skew your opinion — this isn’t a great fantasy profile.

In his four starts, Wilson has just 14 rushing yards and has seen the majority of his passes (52.9%) travel no more than five yards downfield. That’s a tough sell in one-QB leagues, and it doesn’t get easier against an opposing defense that allows the third-lowest completion percentage to the slot (62.6%).

Now, there is some upside here. The Browns are often attacked down the field (second-highest opponent aDOT), and we know that Wilson can make the most of those opportunities. I’m getting exposure to that potential by way of his receivers — Wilson himself is hovering around QB15 and isn’t my preferred option in most situations.

Sam Darnold, QB | MIN (at CHI)

Are we nearing pumpkin time for Sam Darnold? He’s earned a below-average grade over the past two weeks per our QB+ grading metric, and while the fantasy box line looked fine last week (QB9, thanks in part to a sneak touchdown), the advanced numbers suggest that some regression is already taking place.

The Bears rank second in pressure rate since Week 5 (41.7% of dropbacks; league average: 34%), a strength that has given Darnold issues at times. A QB reached 14.5 fantasy points against the Bears just three times this season, and that trio of signal callers averaged 4.9 fantasy points with their legs.

Maybe Darnold can rediscover his form when December starts (Cardinals and Falcons in Weeks 13-14), but I’m not at all comfortable slotting him into one-QB lineups right now.

Tommy DeVito, QB | NYG (vs. TB)

Tommy DeVito takes over for Daniel Jones this week, so you’re going to need to get used to seeing screen grabs of family and agents. This change brings a level of uncertainty to an unappealing situation, and that means fantasy managers need to be on high alert.

Do I think this move changes anything in New York? I don’t, but I don’t know that. With Jones under center, we knew nothing was going to change. DeVito has thrown multiple touchdown passes in two of his three career games with over 25 pass attempts, so that’s something.

Realistically, I’m not changing anything Giants-based for Week 12. I’m still not starting their QB, playing Tyrone Tracy Jr. as an RB2, and hoping that strong volume gets Malik Nabers to a top-15 finish.

Tua Tagovailoa, QB | MIA (vs. NE)

Tua Tagovailoa has completed 77.7% of his passes in four starts back (concussion), but the fantasy points have yet to pile up.

• Week 8: QB20
• Week 9: QB17
• Week 10: QB22
• Week 11: QB10

The issue with Tagovailoa is that he needs to be nearly perfect to return strong fantasy numbers, something that is a tough ask with Tyreek Hill operating at less than full strength and Jaylen Waddle struggling.

The Patriots’ defense isn’t elite, but they do limit opponent efficiency to the slot (67% complete, sixth lowest), meaning Tagovailoa can’t be penciled in for much in the way of “easy” points. That’s not to say that he can’t connect for a few big plays, but with his average depth of throw down 26.3% from a season ago, counting on it is dangerous.

I have a pretty clear top 10 this week followed by a tier that extends from QB11 through QB16, and that is where Tagovailoa resides for this divisional battle.

Will Levis, QB | TEN (at HOU)

Will Levis averaged a career-high 9.5 yards per pass on Sunday against the Vikings (topping his 9.3 YPA in Week 11 last season — consider this your reminder to bet on Levis in Week 11s), but let’s not go overboard.

The counting numbers from last week look fine, but they were greatly inflated by the 98-yard touchdown to Nick Westbrook-Ikhine. For the season, Levis has as many touchdown passes as interceptions (eight). While there is some mobility in his profile, he’s been held under 20 yards on the ground in four of his past five games.

This Texans defense on short rest doesn’t scare me. Levis’ inconsistencies, however, do, and that keeps him easily outside of the streaming radar — even with six teams on a bye.

Week 12 Fantasy Football Running Backs

Aaron Jones, RB | MIN (at CHI)

It took some time, but the preseason fades of Aaron Jones seem to be coming to fruition. The veteran back has now gone four straight games without a 15-yard rush or a score on the ground (72 attempts), fueling production that sits 32.2% below expectation over that stretch.

Jones had a chance to score last week but couldn’t cash in from the 1-yard line, a drive Sam Darnold ultimately finished with a sneak.

This could be viewed as a get-right spot, as the Bears allow the fifth-most yards per carry to opposing running backs this season (4.9). Plus, the Vikings figure to be playing with a lead, which I don’t disagree with.

Minnesota does, however, continue to flirt with Cam Akers (he handled an entire first-half drive last week and scored in the third quarter). And with this offense more grounded of late (19 points per game over their past four), any semblance of a committee situation could render all involved useless.

With six teams on a bye this week, Jones grades as an RB2 for me this week and is a viable starter. However, I’d be nervous for the stretch run if I’m counting on him consistently (not a top-25 RB in three of his past four games), even with a reasonably light schedule ahead.

Alexander Mattison, RB | LV (vs. DEN)

Alexander Mattison left Week 11’s loss to the Dolphins with an ankle injury, something that could end up saving you from yourself.

Since 2021, 52 running backs have at least 300 carries, and Mattison ranks 49th in boom/bust rate (the percentage difference in carries gaining at least 10 yards and that failed to gain yardage).

I’d argue that chasing the lead role in Vegas is a fool’s errand to begin with, and considering that we’ve already seen Mattison struggle in this spot (15 carries for 38 yards against Denver in Week 5), I’m not backing off of that now.

The Broncos allow the fourth-fewest yards per carry and touchdowns at the fifth-lowest rate to opposing backs. There is no clear path to Mattison mattering at full strength, let alone a compromised version of himself.

Ameer Abdullah projects as most likely player to lead this backfield in touches, but we are looking at a low-end Flex play at best.

Audric Estimé, RB | DEN (at LV)

Well, that was fun, wasn’t it?

One week after Audric Estimé looked like the lead back of a surprisingly good Denver team, he handled 23.1% of their rush attempts and wasn’t involved at all in their opening script (first drive: nine plays, 70 yards, and a touchdown).

Broncos RB snap shares, Week 11:

• Javonte Williams: 53.3%
• Audric Estimé: 21.7%
• Jaleel McLaughlin: 13.3%

The rookie ran six times for 16 yards in the 32-point win over the Falcons and victimized all fantasy managers who spent big on him in free agency. I’m not sold that this is the Williams show in Denver, but he does profile as the best bet moving forward in what could be a backfield that has three viable NFL options but zero reliable fantasy options.

The Broncos ran for 109 yards and a score in their first meeting with the Raiders this season. The rushing pie might be a big one in this spot, but without any level of confidence in the size of Estimé’s slice, there’s no way you can justify playing him over a receiver in the Flex range like Quentin Johnston.

I’d even go down to rookie receivers with more solidified roles (think Jalen Coker and Jalen McMillan types) before tempting fate with Estimé this weekend.

Austin Ekeler, RB | WAS (vs. DAL)

Brian Robinson Jr. returned last week, and yet, it was Austin Ekeler with the first touch of the game (a five-yard reception). Of course, Ekeler’s carry count was underwhelming (two, his fourth game this season with under five), but with nine targets, it didn’t matter at all.

Relying on a pass-catching back who is counted on in a singular way is dangerous, but given the direction of Washington’s offense, Ekeler is trending toward a Flex-worthy role. In Weeks 9-11, Jayden Daniels’ average distance of throw is just 5.3 yards, down from 8.1 through Week 8. If that continues, the veteran back is going to be a PPR asset for the remainder of the season.

There isn’t enough scoring equity in this profile for me to commit to Ekeler weekly. His one touchdown in a game with Robinson active came from 24 yards out, it wasn’t on a designed high-valued touch. However, with a 20-yard touch in eight of 10 games, there’s a level of explosion that we feared was a thing of the past

Brian Robinson Jr., RB | WAS (vs. DAL)

Brian Robinson Jr. has run for seven touchdowns on 117 carries this season (career prior: seven rushing scores on 383 attempts), capitalizing on the improved offensive environment despite a snap share that has reached 65% just once this season.

With multiple red-zone touches in every one of his games this season, the opportunity to sustain this scoring rate is there. Robinson’s ypc after contact is up 21.8% this season from last, something that I credit to Daniels’ presence and defenses unable to swarm.

Robinson’s regression in the passing game isn’t ideal (nor unexpected with the acquisition of Ekeler in the offseason), but with north of 15 carries in five of his past six healthy games to complement his scoring equity, there’s no reason to run away from this profile.

The ceiling may be capped, but so is the floor. So long as his hamstring holds up, Robinson is someone fantasy managers can count on.

Bucky Irving, RB | TB (at NYG)

The Buccaneers refuse to fully commit to one back, which is hurting the projections for both. Bucky Irving seems to have the slight edge, but with a sub-50% snap share in four straight, the floor is low no matter what you think of the talent.

I’m in. At least for this week.

Irving has as many 10+ yard runs as carries that have failed to gain yardage this season, making him the preferred option to Rachaad White in a traditional run game in which Tampa Bay is a road favorite.

The rookie has shown nice versatility (92.9% catch rate with multiple receptions in six straight), and that’s enough to earn him an RB2 grade from me this weekend, even without the promise of volume.

Cam Akers, RB | MIN (at CHI)

Cam Akers hasn’t been efficient of late (23 carries for 63 yards over the past two weeks), but he does have a 10+ yard run in three straight and added a three-yard touchdown catch last week against the Titans — his first trip to the end zone since being traded.

I’m not here to tell you that Akers holds standalone value (I’m not positive that the starter in Minnesota holds significant value right now), but if you want to bet against Aaron Jones coming down the stretch of the season — a stance I took on draft day and remain committed to — Akers is the path to do so.

• Week 13 vs. Cardinals
• Week 14 vs. Falcons
• Week 15 vs. Bears
• Week 16 at Seahawks
• Week 17 vs. Packers

Nothing in that closing schedule scares me. I’d have Akers ranked as a top-20 running back if something were to happen to Jones, which is why he deserves to be rostered, even if there is no immediate utility.

Christian McCaffrey, RB | SF (at GB)

For most backs, 42 touches over a two-week stretch comes with additional time in the cold tub penciled in for the following days. For Christian McCaffrey, we call it easing back into his regular role.

During those two games, CMC has handled 32 carries. Not a single one of them has gained more than 13 yards and none of them have finished in the end zone — and yet, he’s been a top-15 producer at the position in both games. Even without the impact plays, McCaffrey is picking up at least five yards on 40.6% of his rushes, giving him access to his always stable floor.

Is this the week we get an explosion game with San Francisco’s postseason hopes hanging in the balance?

It’s certainly possible and potentially projectable. The Packers are the sixth-worst run defense in terms of success rate, leading me to think that a few of those five-yard runs result in much more. I’ve made this the rare week where I’m paying top dollar for CMC in DFS contests.

Chuba Hubbard, RB | CAR (vs. KC)

From Weeks 4-10, Chuba Hubbard was the only running back in the NFL to run for 95 yards and a touchdown while averaging 5.0 yards per carry in three separate games (Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Tyrone Tracy Jr. were the other backs to have multiple such games over that stretch). Say what you will about the organization extending him, but there is no denying that he has earned it on the field.

The debut for Jonathon Brooks looms, and any downtick in volume is a concern against the second-best success rate run defense in the league. That said, I need to see it before I fear it. Hubbard is averaging 19.1 touches per game this season, and even if that number falls to 16, he’ll still profile as a reasonable starter in all formats.

D’Andre Swift, RB | CHI (vs. MIN)

The Bears are struggling, and Roschon Johnson is getting the goal-line work, yet nothing can slow the production machine that is D’Andre Swift.

He cashed in a carry from 39 yards out last weekend, the type of splash play that has become commonplace for a running back who has produced 7.4% over expectation over his past five games despite the shortcomings of everyone around him. As productive as Swift has been (three top-20 finishes over his past four games), I can’t shake this feeling of uncertainty this week.

Remove that long touchdown last week and we are looking at a player with 45 carries for 142 yards in November (3.16 yards per carry). After the first two weeks this season where opposing defenses were trying to gauge what to think of Caleb Williams, Swift has run into a loaded box on 32.8% of his carries, a trend that the aggressive Vikings figure to extend.

Speaking of Minnesota, its crowding of the line of scrimmage has helped fuel the top-rated run defense by success rate. They’ve allowed just 1.4 RB runs of 10+ yards per game this season (tied for the third-fewest), and if the splash play is less likely to be landed by Swift, we are looking at an uphill battle with Chicago as a home underdog.

Swift’s touch floor makes him a starter in just about every season-long format, but I have no interest in plugging him into DFS lineups and wouldn’t blame you if you wanted to start two backs ahead of him (Brian Robinson Jr. and Rico Dowdle are the two I have ranked just ahead of him for Week 12).

David Montgomery, RB | DET (at IND)

David Montgomery has as many multi-score games this season as contests without a touchdown, and you could argue that he is just as valuable as the more explosive Jahmyr Gibbs.

In the Week 11 steamrolling of the Jaguars, Monty had four carries and a touchdown on the opening drive, a set of plays where Gibbs didn’t record a single official touch.

I prefer Gibbs in this specific matchup because the Colts often sell out to stop the run (one of four defenses allowing under one yard per carry before contact), and he’s the one with more creative usage. However, both of these backs are deserving of lineup-lock status weekly and should be considered viable DFS building blocks.

Derrick Henry, RB | BAL (at LAC)

If 65 yards and a touchdown are a floor, you have to take it. Derrick Henry struggled according to his lofty expectations on Sunday in Pittsburgh (he even lost a fumble for the first time on 538 touches), and yet you still had every chance to win your matchup.

The sledding doesn’t get any easier this week against a Chargers defense that owns the lowest opponent rushing touchdown rate, but we are talking about one of the chosen few who is truly matchup-proof. I like Baltimore to bounce back on Monday night — if that comes to light, you can expect another triple-digit performance from Henry, potentially flipping your Week 12 matchup in the process.

Devin Singletary, RB | NYG (vs. TB)

I understand if you’re holding onto Devin Singletary with the thought being that he is one injury away from a 15-touch role. That’s fine, but if you’re lumping him in as a part of your Flex conversation, you’re too optimistic for my liking.

Singletary has been on the field for under 36% of New York’s offensive snaps in all four games back from injury, and the passing-game role that we saw early (43 receiving yards in Week 3 in Cleveland) is all but gone (34 receiving yards since).

I think it’s more likely that the Giant’s backfield has zero viable assets than juggles two. For that reason, cutting ties with the backup is on the table should you need immediate help.

De’Von Achane, RB | MIA (vs. NE)

Over the summer, we allowed ourselves to dream about what a featured version of De’Von Achane looks like, and that seems to be coming to fruition now. Miami hasn’t been shy about featuring its explosive second-year back since Tua Tagovailoa returned, and in those games, how he is being utilized is nothing short of elite.

Last week against the Raiders, he got a carry from inside the five-yard line and outraced the defense to the pylon. No surprise there given his high-end acceleration, and in addition to getting the between-the-20s work, he’s turned into one of the most feared and efficient pass-catching backs in the game (23 catches on 25 targets in those four contests).

You should have zero reservations about Achane. None. He’s positioning to be a league-winning type of asset in redraft formats, has a strong outlook for dynasty managers, and in DFS circles, he could well lead all Flex players in points this weekend against a Patriots defense that allows the seventh most yards per carry before contact to the position.

Your fantasy team is in good hands with Achane at the controls, you just have to make the right decisions around him to ensure that your team succeeds at a high level.

Ezekiel Elliott, RB | DAL (at WAS)

Ezekiel Elliott had more catches (three) than carries (one) against the Texans on Monday night as he was on the field for just 31.6% of Dallas’ offensive snaps. As if those numbers aren’t underwhelming enough, the veteran back has been on the field for 4% of their first-quarter offensive snaps over the past two weeks, a clear indicator of where he sits on this depth chart.

Touchdown vultures hold enough value to remain rostered in most situations, and while that is the role we hoped would be the floor for Zeke, he’s not even that. There’s no need to be holding Elliott in any format.

Gus Edwards, RB | LAC (vs. BAL)

Gus Edwards has totaled 16 touches in his two games back from injury, but his value was always going to come via the touchdown plunges — and that role is not available at the moment.

Not only has J.K. Dobbins punched in five scores over his past four games, but Jim Harbaugh has clearly given Justin Herbert the green light to run, further removing touch equity for Los Angeles’ RB2.

Edwards is a version of Austin Ekeler but without the pass-catching prowess. Not attractive to you? That’s because it shouldn’t be. Edwards’ lack of versatility this season (1.8% of touches have been receptions) is even more glaring than in years past (4.1%), making him a name you can leave on your wire.

Isiah Pacheco, RB | KC (at CAR)

Including the playoffs, Isiah Pacheco is averaging 18.45 PPR points per game over his past 10 games. That would be RB5 this season, just ahead of Kenneth Walker III, Bijan Robinson, and Jahmyr Gibbs.

The Chiefs have been projecting a late November return for Pacheco (leg), and news broke on Sunday that the expectation is for him to return to action this weekend.

I, however, find it unlikely that Pacheco will assume an elite workload immediately upon his return. Kansas City’s record gives them a luxury with their RB1 that a team like San Francisco didn’t have.

That buys Kareem Hunt managers at least one more week of fantasy viability.

Stay close to the reporting, but I’m tentatively expecting a Week 13 return to fantasy lineups. Pacheco should be on the field this week, but with a short week coming up (they play on Black Friday against the Raiders), I’m not plugging him in right away.

Week 13 is not only a good matchup, but it gives Pacheco additional time to recover before a Week 14 showdown with the Chargers and approach his top form when the Chiefs need it most.

Jahmyr Gibbs, RB | DET (at IND)

Is it just me, or have we seen this before?

Jahmyr Gibbs:

• 4.36-second speed
• 5.6 yards per carry in college
• 54.5% NFL snap share
• 20.2% production over expectation in the NFL

Lamar Miller:

• 4.40-second speed
• 5.7 yards per carry in college
• 61.1% snap share in 2015
• 18.2% production over expectation in 2015

Gibbs posted his fourth top-10 finish of the season last week against the Jaguars, showcasing his wide range of skills in the process. His acceleration allows him to create opportunities that don’t appear there, and that unique skill has allowed him to hold an RB22 floor this season.

Gibbs is a splash play waiting to happen. He has a 20+ yard gain both on the ground and through the air in consecutive games and can be counted on as an elite fantasy option.

It’s rare to turn a profit like this on an early-round pick. You made a good call in August, now it’s on you to capitalize with a 2024 title.

James Conner, RB | ARI (at SEA)

That’s now four straight games with a TD or 100 rushing yards as James Conner continues to fend off Father Time with reasonable levels of success (though it should be noted that none of his 159 carries have gained more than 22 yards this season).

While the splash plays haven’t been there, just about every other box is being checked.

• Four straight games with 3+ red-zone touches
• Four straight games with a 15-yard gain
• Six straight games with at least three targets
• Six games this season with at least 18 carries

Seattle’s defense has regressed in a big way since its 3-0 start and doesn’t project as the type of defense that poses a threat to slow down the momentum of a rested Conner.

If you want to discuss Conner’s rest-of-season value, hit me up on X (https://x.com/KyleSoppePFN), but when it comes to the Week 12 rankings, I’m pushing forward without any hesitation.

Javonte Williams, RB | DEN (at LV)

I thought Javonte Williams ran hard last week, and that’s all we can ask for in the hopes that one of these running backs gives Sean Payton the confidence to feature him. Until that is the case, and I’m not sold that it is just yet, starting Williams with confidence would be a tough sell if not for this specific situation (plus matchup and six teams on a bye).

When these teams first met back in Week 5, the Broncos averaged 4.4 yards per carry on 19 rushing attempts and saw four different players rip off a gain of 10+ yards on the ground. We’ve seen Williams reach his ceiling at times this season with three RB1 finishes, and his versatility could be weaponized against a Vegas defense that has the lowest average depth of opponent throws this season.

Your fate is in the hands of Payton, a rookie quarterback, and a backfield that has three options. You’re never going to feel comfortable in a spot like that, but I think we are looking at 12-15 touches — that’s enough to land Williams in my RB2 tier for Week 12.

Jaylen Warren, RB | PIT (at CLE)

Jaylen Warren didn’t practice on Thursday heading into last week due to a back injury, and while he was able to gut it out after a limited practice session on Friday, it’s clear that he’s not fully right and that Pittsburgh likes how Najee Harris’ running style fits this offense.

Steelers RB snap shares, Weeks 10-11:

• Harris: 58.1%
• Warren: 33.8%
• Cordarrelle Patterson: 14.9%

Anything can happen against a Browns team that is allowing 1.6 RB carries of at least 15 yards per game (eighth-most). But as we sit here 11 weeks into 2024, there’s no denying that Harris is the more likely Pittsburgh RB to exploit that weakness.

Warren has caught multiple passes in five straight games, but he’s very clearly a low-upside option at this point, and the Steelers have no reason to pivot off of what is working.

Jaylen Wright, RB | MIA (vs. NE)

The ‘Fins have clearly committed to De’Von Achane and I think managers with Jaylen Wright should be happy with this development.

The rookie is unlikely to hold stand-alone value regardless, and a commitment to Achane removes the temptation to play a low-opportunity Wright in your Flex spot

Dolphins RB snap shares, Week 11:

• Achane: 65.8%
• Wright: 21.4%
• Raheem Mostert: 14.5%

Wright was drafted as Achane’s insurance, and given these snap counts, he’s best positioned to move into the RB2 tier if the starting back were to get hurt. The Patriots allow 2.9 running back carries per game of 10+ yards, the fifth most in the league, making Wright an interesting DFS punt play if you’re trying to catch lightning in a bottle.

Jerome Ford, CLE (vs. PIT)

Jerome Ford doesn’t have more than a dozen touches in a game since September and can be safely cut. Not only is his usage borderline non-existent. Not only have his seven carries since returning picked up just 15. Not only has he not scored since a garbage time trip to the end zone in Week 1. But Cleveland gets Pittsburgh twice, Kansas City, and Denver over the next month.

Even if Ford were to end up with a role increase, the short-term outlook for those touches wouldn’t be nearly optimistic enough to justify burning a roster spot on him.

J.K. Dobbins, RB | LAC (vs. BAL)

Four players this season have four games in which they did all of the following: scored a rushing touchdown, caught a pass, and averaged 5.0 yards per carry. Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, Jahmyr Gibbs, and J.K. Dobbins all have four such games.

Not too shabby.

The game-winning touchdown last week was encouraging, but it does seem like Jim Harbaugh wants to put his fate in the hands of Justin Herbert (three straight games with no more than 15 carries for Dobbins), and with Gus Edwards healthy, this run game could fall by the wayside at the wrong time.

We’ve seen a floor present itself with Dobbins having four finishes outside of the top 25, and a fifth is very possible in this matchup against the top rush defense by EPA. He currently sits as my RB24 this week with the hope being that the overall success of this offense can put Dobbins in a position to produce viable numbers, even if inefficiently.

Joe Mixon, RB | HOU (vs. TEN)

Joe Mixon’s volume didn’t flinch with the return of Nico Collins on Monday night (22 touches for 153 yards and three scores), and he’s essentially an older version of what Kyren Williams was at the end of last season and the beginning of this one.

Do I love a veteran running back on a short week? Not usually, but we have no reason to doubt this profile.

Mixon’s carry projection was set at 21.5 by sportsbooks last week; if we get a line like that this week, I’ll again bet the under as this could be a pass-centric game based on matchup (the Titans are allowing just 3.7 yards per carry to opposing running backs this season, third-fewest) and rest situation with the bye coming up (Week 14),

Even with me committing to that angle, I have Mixon ranked as a top-10 RB this week due to the floor that comes with being featured in this offense.

Jonathan Taylor, RB | IND (vs. DET)

The Jets sold out to stop the run last week in an effort to make Anthony Richardson beat them, and it worked — kind of.

They slowed Jonathan Taylor and held the former All-Pro to just 57 yards on 24 carries (2.4 yards per attempt), but they did end up losing the game. I think this approach could be one that is utilized against Indy moving forward, but maybe not in this spot where the Lions will want to prevent the Colts from matching their chunk plays.

When it comes to Taylor, the change under center off of Joe Flacco should have you encouraged.

With Anthony Richardson on the field:

• 3.4% production over expectation
• 41.7% conversion rate on rushes

Without Richardson on the field:

• 27.2% production below expectation
• 12.5% conversion rate on rushes

Taylor is going to have to produce like a star if the Colts are going to keep this game tight, and I think they give him every chance to do so.

Jonathon Brooks, RB | CAR (vs. KC)

The expectation is for Jonathon Brooks to make his NFL debut on Sunday, and that gives us something to monitor, but this is pretty clearly a read-and-react situation. The Panthers have no motivation to push the rookie during this lost season: their goal over the final seven weeks of 2024 is to set themselves up for 2025.

The Chiefs own the best per-carry rush defense in the league (3.1 yards per carry to running backs), so Carolina is in a bind to return any viable running numbers, let alone from a kid returning from a knee injury that sidelined him from game action for over a year.

Jordan Mason, RB | SF (at GB)

Remember a month ago when Jordan Mason was the toast of fantasy circles?

Christian McCaffrey is back doing Christian McCaffrey things, and as long as that is the case, Mason is nothing more than depth (three touches in the two games since McCaffrey made his season debut). Fantasy managers and the 49ers should have the same plan for Mason: break glass in case of emergency.

Josh Jacobs, RB | GB (vs. SF)

Josh Jacobs has been trusted with at least 17 touches in five of his past six games and was a pretty clear focal point for the Packers last week. To open the game, he picked up 25 yards on four carries during Green Bay’s first six offensive plays of the game. To open the second half, Jacobs had a pair of touches to start a drive that he ultimately finished with a seven-yard score.

That doesn’t happen by accident and provides me with confidence in his floor. I also thought he looked fluid in the passing game last week, something that gives him access to a ceiling that not many have (three top-10 finishes this season). In fact, since the beginning of October, Bijan Robinson and Jacobs are the only running backs with at least 18 rush attempts and 20 receiving yards in three games

I don’t think we see that level of production this weekend against a San Francisco defense that has allowed running back carries to gain 15 yards just once a month, the lowest rate in the league. The floor is enough to start Jacobs with confidence, but you’re just very unlikely to see him replicate his strong Week 11 (134 yards and a touchdown).

Justice Hill, RB | BAL (at LAC)

Justice Hill saw seven targets last weekend against the Steelers, something that is great to see if you believe the Ravens are going to be pushed. That’s certainly possible this week and for the majority of their remaining games (Eagles, Giants, Steelers, and Texans remain).

That said, without a game of 20 rushing yards since Week 3, there’s a low floor to consider if PPR managers are considering getting cute. My play is this: do nothing. The Ravens have their bye in Week 14 and Hill could be cut loose at that time.

If you want his pass-catching role on your bench, add him during the bye and be on your way. As long as Derrick Henry is healthy, Hill is never going to rank as a starter for me, though I did like what I saw last week; with the rematch coming in crunch time for fantasy leagues, there’s sound logic that comes with rostering him.

Kareem Hunt, RB | KC (at CAR)

Volume has been the name of the game for Kareem Hunt this season, a calling card that has been safe since he joined the team.

NFL rush attempt leaders, Weeks 4-11:

1. Derrick Henry: 141 (6.4 yards per carry)
2. Kareem Hunt: 139 (3.7)
3. Kyren Williams: 137 (4.3)
4. Saquon Barkley: 134 (5.9)

The inefficiency hasn’t been a damning thing for fantasy managers up to this point, but with Isiah Pacheco expected back, we could be looking at this house of cards collapsing in short order.

I had Hunt ranked over Isiah Pacheco entering this week and now have Hunt as a strong RB2 play with news breaking on Friday that the team’s starter won’t return this this game.

With the Chiefs more focused on late January than late November/early December, I’d be shocked if we saw Pacheco come back the same way as Christian McCaffrey. You might be able to get another two weeks out of Hunt, but banking on him to be a fantasy asset during your playoffs is a bit optimistic for my liking.

Kenneth Walker III, RB | SEA (vs. ARI)

With at least three catches or a touchdown in every game this season, Kenneth Walker III has established a very nice floor that PPR fantasy managers can’t argue with.

A little irritating is the fact that Walker hasn’t offered the one-play potential that we assumed to be in his bag entering this season — he is not one of the five Seahawks with a 30-yard touch this year.

I can’t imagine we end the season with that being the case, and it wouldn’t shock me at all if we got an explosive play this weekend against a Cardinals defense that allows the eighth-most yards per carry after contact to running backs.

As long as Walker is healthy, he’s a top-15 running back for me, and in good spots like this, he’s inside of my top 10 at the position.

Kyren Williams, RB | LAR (vs. PHI)

Kyren Williams is an auto-start due to his role and the upside of this offense, but there is no denying that there is more risk in this profile today than there was a month ago.

That’s now three straight games finishing outside of the top 20 for Williams, a run that has, not surprisingly, coincided with his touchdown “drought.” The scoring opportunities will sort themselves out with time, though this isn’t the week to bank on that with the Eagles giving rushing scores to opposing running backs at the third-lowest rate through 11 weeks.

What has me more worried was the zero-target showing from last week, his second such game of the season. If that sustains, there is a week-ruining floor to at least consider moving forward.

You’re not making any actionable changes, though I would lower expectations a touch from where they stood not long ago.

MarShawn Lloyd, RB | GB (vs. SF)

MarShawn Lloyd was nearing a return from ankle and hamstring issues this time last week after Green Bay opened up his 21-day return window. Yet, in the lead-up to Week 11, Lloyd woke up with appendicitis, an ailment that typically takes upwards of two months to recover from.

I wouldn’t forget his name in 2025, but with Josh Jacobs not set to become an unrestricted free agent until 2028, we’re looking at a handcuff RB at best with no NFL game experience.

In regards to this season, the Packers are in discussions with the league as to how to label their rookie back in terms of roster designations. That doesn’t matter to you, though. Lloyd is safe to cut in all formats, even if you’ve been stashing him in your IR slot (you can do better).

Najee Harris, RB | PIT (at CLE)

No projection is easy, but players like Najee Harris are a dream. This season, he’s produced 8.4-13.6 PPR points in seven of 10 games, making him somewhat easy to forecast and someone that fantasy managers can plug in with an understanding of what they’re getting.

Harris has been handed the ball at least 18 times in four straight games, but the lack of versatility is what has sucked the upside out of this profile. Prior to last week, he had five targets over a three-game run. Are the five targets against the Ravens a sign of things to come?

It’s possible. Russell Wilson’s “moon balls” get the attention, but he’s ultra-conservative otherwise, and that puts Harris in a position to win.

I think Harris will need to sustain some level of work through the air, as he is averaging a whopping 0.21 yards per carry before contact this season.

The Browns allow the fifth-most yards per carry after contact to running backs this season, a flaw that has me optimistic that we can get low-end RB2 numbers from Harris, even with Jaylen Warren factoring in (13 touches last week).

Nick Chubb, RB | CLE (vs. PIT)

In his four games back, Nick Chubb doesn’t have a touch gaining more than 15 yards, and he has just two receptions on the ledger. D’Onta Foreman was inactive last week, and yet Chubb left the week with an underwhelming 55% carry share.

On the bright side, the plan was to get him involved. Chubb carried the ball on four of Cleveland’s first six offensive snaps, but by getting stuffed on fourth down, the floodgates were open and the game script got away from the Browns.

This story is a good one (the Steelers were the opposing team when Chubb was hurt last season), but that doesn’t make him a top-25 running back, even with a pretty clear lead role. Not only are the Steelers allowing the fourth fewest yards per carry after contact to RBs this season (2.61), but their offense grades as the eighth slowest, putting this at risk of being a low-possession game.

Chubb is nothing more than a low-end Flex, ranking alongside secondary options like Austin Ekeler and, this week, Isiah Pacheco.

Rachaad White, RB | TB (at NYG)

There’s no denying that Rachaad White’s skill set is limited, but “limited” doesn’t mean useless.

White has seen at least six targets in three of his past four games and has found paydirt five times in that span. That said, his profile certainly carries a significant amount of risk.

White hasn’t had more than 10 carries in a game since the season-opening win over the Commanders, and his boom/bust rate (percentage difference in carries gaining at least 10 yards compared to the rate of runs that fail to gain yardage) is an ugly 21.3%.

This season, only 5% of White’s runs have picked up 10 yards. And in a game where Tampa Bay should be playing with a lead, Bucky Irving is the direction I prefer to go in this backfield if given the opportunity.

White is a viable Flex option in full-PPR formats, but if the game script works away from him, a single-digit performance is very possible.

Raheem Mostert, RB | MIA (vs. NE)

Don’t you hate it when “rock bottom” isn’t actually rock bottom?

Raheem Mostert didn’t record a single carry against the Rams in Week 10, a disappointing week that he followed up with three carries … for negative two yards.

With no targets in Week 11, you have every reason to cut Mostert. This team has committed to the upside that De’Von Achane brings to the table, and they are exploring with Jaylen Wright at times, leaving little meat on the bone for the veteran back.

If you need to trim the fat on your roster for immediate help, Mostert can be let go. I wouldn’t cut him just for the same of doing it as he’s only an injury away from a reasonable projection, but don’t feel committed to keeping him if you’re in desperation mode.

Rhamondre Stevenson, RB | NE (at MIA)

Rhamondre Stevenson has been a top-20 running back in three of the past four weeks and was productive in the Week 5 loss to these Dolphins (12 carries for 89 yards and a touchdown). It should be noted that the first meeting was a much anticipated Jacoby Brissett vs. Tyler Huntley showdown, giving it little predictive power in terms of game flow.

It’s been a mess efficiency-wise for Stevenson since the strong showing (77 carries for 229 yards, 2.97 yards per carry), as he has struggled to rip off the chunk plays. In those five games, New England’s bell cow doesn’t have 15-yard gain, making him a volume-reliant back.

That’s a dangerous role in a game where his team is a touchdown underdog and facing the best run defense in terms of yards per carry allowed to running backs before contact (13.3% fewer than any other defense).

I have my concerns, though I can’t overlook the projectable volume. I have Stevenson ranked as RB19, just ahead of Kareem Hunt and Bucky Irving, two running backs in good spots but with more competition for work.

Rico Dowdle, RB | DAL (at WAS)

Heading into Week 11, we got confirmation that Rico Dowdle would be the lead back in this offense. That’s glorious. All we ask for is straight-shooting from these organizations, and we got just that from the Cowboys last week.

There is no more running back by committee in Dallas. Mike McCarthy said Rico Dowdle is the Cowboys lead back: “Definitely, you have to get him the ball. That's my focus to continue to get him opportunities. He's the lead back.”

— Clarence Hill Jr (@clarencehilljr) November 14, 2024

Of course, Houston went on to beat the breaks off of Dallas, completely neutralizing the run game in the process. That could well be the case this weekend as well, though I’m skeptical about the potency of this Washington offense with a compromised version of Jayden Daniels.

That concern is fueling my ranking of Dowdle as a top-20 running back this week. I believe this franchise when they say that a 55-pass Cooper Rush game isn’t the plan; if they can keep this thing even remotely close, the fact that the Commanders allow the second-most yards per carry to running backs this season (5.1) is all it takes to sell me on Dowdle.

With multiple receptions in five straight games, there are a few paths to production. I’m not expecting this to be a work of art, but this is very much like golf in that there are no pictures on the scorecard. I think we are looking at 65-75 total yards with 3-5 targets and a red-zone role — that’s enough for me to rank you as a starter in Week 12.

Roschon Johnson, RB | CHI (vs. MIN)

For whatever reason, touchdown vultures aren’t as prevalent as they have been in years past.

I take that back. Vulture running backs aren’t as prevalent. Vulture quarterbacks are now all the rage, but the Bears seem hesitant to put Caleb Williams in harm’s way like that, and that has opened the door for Roschon Johnson to carve out a role that has the eye of fantasy managers.

Three players have at least five rushing touchdowns from the one-yard line this season: Jalen Hurts (eight), David Montgomery (five), and Johnson (five).

I’m never going to rank Johnson as a top-30 player; the touch count just doesn’t grade well and banking on an offense stalling inside the five-yard line is a dangerous game to play, but this is a player I want on my roster.

If you’ve played fantasy football for any length of time, you know that there will be a week where you are grasping for straws. You’ll be searching the wire for a six-touch running back or a speedy receiver who, at best, is looking at three targets.

In spots like that, Johnson is perfect, as a six-point carry stands to rank him over those other options. We are looking at a roster-construction play rather than one for whom you look at Week 12’s fantasy rankings for encouragement.

Saquon Barkley, RB | PHI (at LAR)

Saquon Barkley is the fifth player since the 1970 merger with at least 1,300 scrimmage yards and 10 scores in his first 10 games with a franchise, joining Ezekiel Elliott (2016), Adrian Peterson (2007), Eric Dickerson (1983), and Billy Sims (1980).

The production relative to expectation (+29.5%) is easily a career best (his first season with a positive return since 2019), and it’s coming exactly how we thought it would — a 167.3% spike in yards per carry before contact.

Is it irritating that the man has been tackled inside the 3-yard line 11 times this season and has just one touchdown to show for those possessions? Of course, it is. But when modern-day Barry Sanders is handling 22 touches per game for a team operating with a positive game script on a regular basis, you thank your lucky stars for the privilege of starting Barkley every week.

A Pittsburgh matchup in Week 15 looms, but around that are games against the Panthers, Commanders, and Cowboys. Barkley has been among the most valuable high-end assets in fantasy this season, and there’s no reason to think that momentum slows as the weather cools.

Tony Pollard, RB | TEN (at HOU)

The Titans have lost consecutive games by 10 points, and that, naturally, caps the volume of their lead back, Tony Pollard. In most situations, I’d tell you not to worry, as the game script tends to level out with time for the majority of the league — but this isn’t most situations.

This is the first of three games in a four-week stretch where the Titans take on a quarterback more than capable of lighting up the scoreboard (C.J. Stroud this week, Jayden Daniels next, and Joe Burrow in Week 15), thus putting Pollard’s rushing equity in major doubt.

I’m not sounding the alarm, as he does have multiple receptions in every game this season, but without a solid rushing foundation, dud weeks like Week 11 are going to happen. Pollard has been the lead in Tennessee all season and he has three weekly finishes outside of the top 30 at the position.

A fantasy team is no different than a “real” team in that every player has his role. Pollard’s role for you is to give you a reasonable floor and that’s fine as long as you aren’t expecting him to be a week winner.

Trey Benson, RB | ARI (at SEA)

Trey Benson continues to show plenty of promise and deserves to be 100% rostered in competitive leagues due to his proximity to upside. Even in a secondary role, the third-round rookie has cleared 10 PPR points in consecutive games, posting both a 14-yard rush and reception in both contests.

Of course, he has a James Conner problem, which will prevent Benson from ranking as a Flex option on the granular basis that is Week 11. Yet, him being an injury away holds significant value from a roster construction standpoint.

Conner has been great, but that doesn’t change the fact that he is a 29-year-old who is averaging 20.3 touches per game over the past month and has missed multiple games in every season of his NFL career. Benson has produced 14.7% over expectation this season and would walk comfortably into my top 20 at the position should Conner find himself on the shelf at any point moving forward.

Tyjae Spears, RB | TEN (at HOU)

Tyjae Spears entered concussion protocol on Monday. While he has been on the field a decent amount after missing a month (47.1% snap share in Week 10 and 43.6% on Sunday), this offense isn’t strong enough to support a secondary role.

I remain intrigued by what it is that Spears brings to the table, but that’s a conversation to be had this summer for 2025, not for helping you win over the next six weeks. You can feel just fine about moving on from Spears in most formats, assuming that there is a role/matchup that you find intriguing on the wire.

Tyrone Tracy Jr., RB | NYG (vs. TB)

Tyrone Tracy Jr. has 107 carries for 545 yards and three scores this season — Saquon Barkley had 508 yards and five touchdowns on his first 107 carries for the Giants.

That’s just number-bending magic, and no, I don’t think this kid is Barkley 2.0, but he’s been that level of impressive. I also make that comparison to alert you that the bottom can fall out. Remember way back in 2023 when this offense was so prohibitive that Barkley averaged a career-low 3.9 yards per carry?

You just need to come down the stretch with your eyes wide open. Tracy played a season-high 79.5% of the offensive snaps in Week 10 against the Panthers (18 carries for 103 yards) and has multiple red-zone touches in three straight.

There’s an inherent risk that comes with being a part of this offense. The Bucs’ defense has plenty of holes, but in the two weeks before the bye, it held San Francisco and Kansas City to 199 yards on 57 carries (3.49 yards per rush).

Zach Charbonnet, RB | SEA (vs. ARI)

Zach Charbonnet handled 32 carries in the two games that Kenneth Walker III missed but has just 33 rush attempts in the other eight games. That has relegated him to the handcuff only territory that gradually becomes more expendable with time.

The former second-round pick has been unable to find much in the way of running room when given the opportunity this season (0.38 yards per carry before contact this season), leaving me without extreme confidence that he’d rank inside of my top 15 if Walker were to get injured.

If your leagues are like mine and the waiver wire is baron, there’s no need to cut Charbonnet. However, should a win-now manager cut someone of interest to you, feel free to make the swap.

Week 12 Fantasy Football Wide Receivers

Adam Thielen, WR | CAR (vs. KC)

Dave Canales fully expects Adam Thielen (hamstring) to be active this week for the first time since September. That might help facilitate Bryce Young’s growth down the stretch of 2024 but is unlikely to matter in a fantasy sense.

Thielen had the magical run early last season, but he’s managed just 54 catches for 542 yards and a single score over his past 13 games. The Panthers are pretty clearly looking well beyond 2024, and they’ve invested in a handful of younger options who project to be a part of that big picture.

If you’ve held Thielen in your IR slot, you can now cut ties.

A.J. Brown, WR | PHI (at LAR)

A.J. Brown hasn’t been quite the star you were hoping for when you drafted him this summer, that’s just a fact. He doesn’t have more than six catches in a game this season and has failed to score in four straight in addition to missing time early in the season.

Take a deep breath and understand that the advanced metrics are working in your favor as we come down the stretch.

Brown’s on-field target share is spot on with expectations (26.1% this season; career rate: 25.9%), and his efficiency is on a career pace in every measure (fantasy points per target, yards per route, and EPA per opportunity).

The overall pass volume in Philadelphia has been the problem, and that may not correct itself; if it does, Brown has the potential to be the top-scoring player at the position the rest of the way.

The Eagles face four viable quarterbacks over the next five weeks (Matthew Stafford, Lamar Jackson, Russell Wilson, and Jayden Daniels — this time not on a goofy short week), and that could result in this team getting pushed at a level we haven’t seen lately.

Maybe I’m overthinking this, but Saquon Barkley is being used as a bellcow and has played in the postseason one time in his career. Could the Eagles opt to manage his reps down the stretch of the regular season, thus opening up more opportunities for Brown and this passing game?

Even if I’m wrong in my effort to play 3D chess, Brown is a locked-in WR1. If I’m right, you’re winning your league because you have this monster in your lineup every week.

Alec Pierce, WR | IND (vs. DET)

That’s now consecutive games from Alec Pierce with at least 70 receiving yards, the first time he’s done that since October 2022. Pierce’s skill set doesn’t translate as a stable one week over week, but if Indianapolis is going to stay competitive in this spot, it’s because Anthony Richardson is picking on a Lions secondary that allows the third-most WR receptions of 15+ yards per game (4.6).

Josh Downs, Michael Pittman Jr., and Adonai Mitchell could be the recipients of those looks. As could the father of three who is sitting in the fifth row.

Or it could be Pierce again. He’s among the five most matchup-dependent plays in the sport — not his matchup, yours.

If your matchup is expected to come down to the wire, I’d look elsewhere. But not all weeks are like that. If you’re in chase mode (be it record, total points for a tiebreaker, etc.), this is exactly the type of dice you should be rolling.

I have Pierce ranked as my third Colts receiver and prefer Noah Brown and Xavier Worthy if we are looking at big-play threats. Still, there’s no denying that there is an upside in Pierce’s profile that could land him as a WR2 this weekend.

Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR | DET (at IND)

Since Week 3, 26 players have seen more targets than Amon-Ra St. Brown. But only five have more receptions, and Ja’Marr Chase is the only player with touchdown catches over that stretch.

During this scoring streak (eight straight games, a franchise record), St. Brown has three times as many TDs (nine) as targets that have hit the ground (three, 51 catches on 54 targets).

I’m running out of ways to praise this man, and if Dan Campbell is going to leave him on the field to help extend a 36-point lead, even game scripts can’t stop him. St. Brown has the potential to carry your fantasy team to a title this season and is going to cost you a pick in the first half of Round 1 in August.

Brandin Cooks, WR | DAL (at WAS)

Brandin Cooks (knee) hasn’t played since September, and while news out of Dallas seems to be cautiously optimistic on the status of the veteran receiver, fantasy managers need not worry.

In 2023, Cooks posted the worst yards per route run rate of his career, and nothing in the early going this season — in a Dak Prescott-led offense — suggested that a rebound was imminent. With the Cowboys’ season a lost one and Cooks’ contract done at the end of the season, neither party has enough motivation to pique the interest of fantasy managers in the slightest.

Calvin Ridley, WR | TEN (at HOU)

Calvin Ridley has made some splash plays recently (his 21-yarder last week against the Vikings was proof of having Will Levis’ trust), and that is going to happen for the NFL leader in air yards. However, that is very much a dual-edged sword when operating in an inconsistent offense that lacks a secondary playmaker to attract defensive attention.

The Texans allow the fewest yards per deep pass attempt this season and have greatly reduced their blitz rate over the past two weeks. The only way Houston loses this game is by giving up big plays, making Ridley the focal point in an area of strength. He’s on the Flex radar due to a lack of viable options this week, but I do have Cedric Tillman ranked higher if you are looking for some context.

Cedric Tillman, WR | CLE (vs. PIT)

After back-to-back-to-back top-12 finishes at the position, Cedric Tillman let all of fantasy nation down last weekend against the Saints with three catches for 47 yards and a WR50 finish.

Your thought process, for the most part, was sound in trusting Tillman. We aren’t sure of the exact hierarchy in Cleveland, but the idea was to chase the volume, and that came through with eight targets. If you were excited to play him last week, I don’t blame you, but you may have been blinded by the production over the profile.

The volume is nice, but the type of volume needs to be considered. Tillman owns a 15.5-yard aDOT this season, and a role like that is always going to carry a low floor, especially when the play under center isn’t the most stable.

There are spots moving forward where I’ll rank Tillman as a starter, but this isn’t it. The Browns have an implied point total of 16 and face a defense that ranks in the top six in both touchdown rate and interception percentage on deep throws. A repeat performance is roughly what I’m expecting this week, and that relegates Tillman to fantasy benches, but don’t dismiss him completely when planning out your future lineups.

CeeDee Lamb, WR | DAL (at WAS)

That’s five straight double-digit target games for CeeDee Lamb. While the embarrassing loss to the Texans in a prime-time spot would be labeled as a negative by most, we are open-minded fantasy managers who just want points. For us, I liked what I saw.

Why?

Dallas threw the ball 56 times. They weren’t content to lose by 13 and shorten the game, they opened up their offense and tried. Is that many passes for Cooper Rush a good thing? Of course not, but if we take for granted that one-quarter of them are going to go to WR1, the more bites at the apple, the better!

The game script might look similar this week, and if Dallas wasn’t going to give Trey Lance the keys at any point this week, why would we assume that they do this week? The Commanders are the fourth-best defense at creating pressure without blitzing (37.5%), calling into question each individual Rush dropback. But if we can get close to the volume we got last week, it won’t matter.

You can ding Lamb’s projection and grade a touch. Heck, you could move him down an entire standard deviation on the expectation scale — he’s still going to grade as a starter in all formats.

Christian Watson, WR | GB (vs. SF)

Christian Watson’s 150 yards, including one of the biggest plays of the win, were a highlight of Week 11. But did you make the wrong decision in benching him?

I’d argue no. Watson’s role earned him just four targets and 6.5 expected PPR points, barely any variation from his role through the first 10 weeks (3.4 targets and 6.0 expected PPR points). He ran hot against the Bears with catches of 17, 25, 48, and 60 yards, something that will happen with a player like this, but not something any rational person would predict for an isolated week.

The 49ers own the third-lowest blitz rate in the NFL and have a ball-control offense, two things that could prove fatal to Watson’s attempt to sustain last week’s momentum.

On top of all of that, it took a down week from Jayden Reed and Tucker Kraft for Watson to get the few opportunities that he did. Seeing Watson’s production sit on your bench hurt you last week, but you can’t fix that now.

Wise fantasy managers continue to play the odds, and they are stacked against Watson offering another top-15 performance this weekend, even with six teams on bye.

Cooper Kupp, WR | LAR (vs. PHI)

Cooper Kupp has scored or caught 7+ passes in all four games since his return from injury, highlighted by a two-score game last week in New England. That performance was buoyed by a 69-yard strike that came as the result of the Patriots bringing an all-out blitz. It’s a play that counts but not one that I expect too many teams to tempt fate with against this offense at full strength.

There’s one minor concern to consider in this specific matchup, but we are splitting hairs.

Weeks 1-9:

• Puka Nacua: 11.3 aDOT
• Cooper Kupp: 6.0 aDOT

Weeks 10-11:

• Nacua: 11.0 aDOT
• Kupp: 10.5 aDOT

It’s a small sample and, in general, Kupp’s lengthening of his target is a net positive, but the Eagles allow the fewest 15+ yard WR receptions per game (2.5), and with Nacua being the more efficient downfield threat (7.6% more yards per route run), that brings in a bit more risk than you might assume in this spot.

I prefer Nacua to Kupp this week, but both are top-15 plays that you’re locking in without a second thought.

Courtland Sutton, WR | DEN (at LV)

Courtland Sutton was limited to just 32 yards (two catches) on five targets when these two teams met back in Week 5, but that feels like ages ago at this point.

Bo Nix’s push for Rookie of the Year consideration has been tied to his willingness to load up his WR1 with opportunities, and it’s paying off. Sutton has four straight games with at least six catches, eight targets, and 70 yards (in those games: 73.7% catch rate).

He’s begun to mix deep bombs (second-most air yards in the league this season) with TD equity (three straight games with an end-zone target), a level of development with his first-year QB that you absolutely love to see.

The Raiders allow the sixth-highest red-zone passer rating, and there’s no place Nix would rather go in scoring situations than Sutton. We entered the season with far greater expectations for CeeDee Lamb, Malik Nabers, and Zay Flowers when compared to Denver’s top receiver — I have them all ranked below Sutton for Week 12.

Darius Slayton, WR | NYG (vs. TB)

A concussion forced Darius Slayton to miss Week 10 prior to the Week 11 bye. The hope is that he will be able to return to action this week (Jalin Hyatt turned in a four-catch, 39-yard performance in his stead), but Slayton is not a name you need to consider for annual or DFS leagues as long as Malik Nabers is healthy.

With the Giants making a change under center, I suppose anything is possible. But until proven otherwise, I’m OK with assuming that this offense is a dumpster fire. If I’m wrong, we can circle back next week and address the staying power of a second receiver in Tommy DeVito’s world.

DeAndre Hopkins, WR | KC (at CAR)

The Chiefs went out of their way to feature DeAndre Hopkins against the Buccaneers in Week 9 (nine targets on 34 routes), but some of the shine has worn off of the veteran WR since (nine targets on 49 routes). Hopkins’ slot role has declined in consecutive weeks, and while I’d like that to reverse course, he’s still the unquestioned WR1 for a team that is labeled a double-digit road favorite this week.

The Panthers own the worst defense at creating pressure without the courtesy of a blitz. You either let Mahomes pick you apart or bring an extra defender and leave a player like Hopkins in advantageous coverage situations. I’m fine with betting on that projected offensive setting and have Nuk ranked as a WR2 in PPR formats.

Deebo Samuel Sr., WR | SF (at GB)

George Kittle sat out last week, and Brandon Aiyuk is done for the season. In theory, that lines up perfectly for Deebo Samuel Sr.’s versatility to thrive, right?

Wrong.

In the loss to Seattle, Samuel accounted for 13.8% of San Francisco’s receiving yards and lost a yard on his only carry. He doesn’t have more than five grabs in a game since Week 2 and has found paydirt just once after opening the season with a touchdown against the Jets.

The arrow is pretty clearly pointing down, but the proven ability of the 49ers’ offense to be efficient keeps him in lineups. The Packers are allowing touchdowns on 31.4% of red-zone passes, the fifth-highest rate in the NFL, and a flaw that Samuel could well expose.

There is no doubt that the return of Christian McCaffrey limits some of the creative touches in Samuel’s profile. But with its backs against the wall, I expect San Francisco to manufacture more than the five touches given their WR1 last week.

That optimism is enough for me to keep Samuel ranked as a top-15 receiver.

Demarcus Robinson, WR | LAR (vs. PHI)

The Rams are back to functioning at a high level (26+ points scored in three of their past four games), and we all know what that means — an ultra-condensed distribution of touches.

In last week’s win over the Patriots, Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp saw 70.4% of Matthew Stafford’s targets. Add in the elite scoring ways of Kyren Williams when Los Angeles reaches the red zone, and the path for Demarcus Robinson to fall into fantasy value is close to nonexistent.

Robinson bridged October and November with a pair of multi-score games, and that resulted in him being rostered with confidence. With his teammates back at full strength, Robinson is on the chopping block if you need to create roster space.

DeMario Douglas, WR | NE (at MIA)

DeMario Douglas has earned 21 targets so far in November, but he feels an awful lot like a short version of Patriot Jakobi Meyers. And with a rookie QB, that’s a problem.

Douglas has scored just once in 25 NFL games (93 catches, 139 targets). But while his volume in the short passing game seems safe, 9.4 yards per catch tells me that either Douglas isn’t as good with the ball in his hands as this team thinks or that Drake Maye is struggling to place the ball in optimal RAC spots.

The Patriots carry with them an implied total of under 20 this week (and most weeks), which suppresses my projections for this offense as a whole. Douglas is my clear favorite in New England’s passing game, but I’d rather take my chances on a pair of rookies (Rome Odunze and Jalen Coker) in the Flex range, and I’d play actual Jakobi Meyers (even in a tough spot against the Broncos) ahead of him.

DeVonta Smith, WR| PHI (at LAR)

It’s OK to be frustrated with DeVonta Smith, but it’s not OK to be surprised by him. He fell flat on his birthday against the Commanders last week, but this is who he is as a fantasy asset.

• In 2022, Smith cleared 1,000 yards and scored seven times — he failed to clear 50 yards seven times
• In 2023, Smith cleared 1,000 yards and scored seven times — he failed to clear 50 yards seven times

His fantasy points per target have increased each season of his career while his current aDOT and target share are right in line with where his career marks are. Was the Week 11 disappointment projectable?

Washington entered the game trending up in pressure rate, and Smith’s target share is 9.4 percentage points lower when Jalen Hurts is sped up than when he’s not since 2023. We should be on the plus side of that trend this week against a Rams defense that ranks below league average in both pressure and blitz rate, making Smith a plenty viable option to click into your lineup, even after consecutive air balls.

Diontae Johnson, WR | BAL (at LAC)

Diontae Johnson saw a first-drive target last week, but he only saw one look the rest of the way against the Steelers and still hasn’t found his footing with Baltimore.

The veteran receiver might prove to be a viable option for a Ravens team that has their eyes on postseason success. Yet, asking Johnson to return to fantasy production in the short term is asking a lot.

Johnson has yet to play even 30% of the snaps since the trade, and in a run-centric offense like this, that role isn’t even remotely close to roster-worthy.

DJ Moore, WR | CHI (vs. MIN)

Week 11 was DJ Moore’s fourth top-30 finish of the season, but it required perfection from an imperfect quarterback. Against the Packers, Caleb Williams was 7-of-7 when throwing to Moore and 66.7% to everyone else.

I want to be encouraged by what we saw last week, but I’m more concerned about the larger profile and its trajectory:

• Weeks 1-5: 21.9% on-field target share, 9.4 aDOT
• Weeks 6-11: 16% on-field target share, 7.5 aDOT

When looking at a set of data like that, you expect target share and aDOT to be inversely correlated. That, however, isn’t the case here, as Moore’s target upside is trending down, and his ability to earn those looks is moving in the wrong direction.

Case in point? Moore had a 100% catch rate and led the team in receptions last week. Yet, he was outscored by Marquez Valdes-Scantling for the week — who ranked fifth for the Saints last week in receptions.

That’s an extreme example, but the point remains. Moore had a total of six air yards last week, and that’s a tough way to make a living.

In Chicago, I prefer Rome Odunze to Moore, and for this week, I like the specific matchups of Quentin Johnston and Jalen Coker over him as well.

DK Metcalf, WR | SEA (vs. ARI)

The Seahawks have completely punted on DK Metcalf playing in the slot (3.8% of his routes last week), and I think that’s a good thing. Yes, those are the layup targets, but I’m OK with skirting some floor for an increase in ceiling, which is what this move by Seattle reflects.

Metcalf is currently pacing for a career-high in expected PPR points per game (14.8), and with him seeing a 29% target share in his return to action, there are clearly no limitations.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s emergence has some people dragging down their projections for Metcalf, and from a rest-of-season standpoint, I have no issue with that. However, I’m not adjusting for this matchup.

Through 11 weeks this season, the Cardinals allow the ninth-highest completion percentage when opponents throw to the perimeter and are the 11th-best (lowest) in that regard against the slot.

I have no issue in labeling this WR duo as a 1a and 1b situation — not this week, not in this spot.

Dontayvion Wicks, WR | GB (vs. SF)

Dontayvion Wicks saw Green Bay’s first target of Week 11 — and that was it for the entire game. Wicks only ran five more routes after that play and is still searching for his first November reception.

Why hold? Why not listen to what this team is telling us?

Jordan Love has proven to be a more volatile QB than we believed he would be this season, and that has left Wicks out in the cold. He’s still a 6’1”, second-year receiver with plenty of per-reception upside (four scores on 16 catches this season), but there’s no reason to hold onto Wicks as your season comes down to the wire.

There is no change coming in Green Bay, which leaves Wicks without a clear path to mattering. I’d rather roll the dice on any “muddy” situation. I’d rather roster Adonai Mitchell, Mike Williams, or any of the Patriots’ dart throws.

At this point in the season, I’m OK with targeting uncertainty. In fact, I want it, plus I’m fairly certain that Wicks isn’t a part of the immediate plan in Green Bay.

Elijah Moore, WR | CLE (vs. PIT)

Elijah Moore owns a stable skill set in an unstable situation with Jameis Winston pulling the levers, but the condensed nature of this higher-volume passing offense is truly remarkable.

Active receiver streaks, games with 8+ targets:

• Justin Jefferson (eight straight)
• CeeDee Lamb (seven)
• Malik Nabers (seven)
• Courtland Sutton (four)
• Ja’Marr Chase (four)
• Cedric Tillman (four)
• Jerry Jeudy (four)
• Elijah Moore (three)

You read that right — three Browns on this eight-receiver list. Moore’s production relative to expectations has improved over his past four games than through the first six weeks, and while I believe the upside is capped (6-66-1 in New Orleans last week is about as good as it gets), you don’t need him to be a week winner.

Elijah has officially passed DJ as my Moore of choice when plugging in a Flex option this weekend.

George Pickens, WR | PIT (at CLE)

Saquon Barkley to Philadelphia and De’Andre Hopkins to Kansas City are two changes from 2023 that get the attention for impact moves paying off handsomely. However, the move from Justin Fields to Russell Wilson deserves to be on that list in terms of George Pickens’ fantasy value.

Pittsburgh’s clear WR1 has cleared 16 PPR points in three of four games with Wilson, pacing for a 94-1552-8.5 stat line if you were to extend those games forward for a full season. Last week, we saw a 37-yard bomb from Wilson near the end of the third quarter, a pass play with a tiny window to drop the ball in, and proof of high-level confidence in his top playmaker.

Pickens ranks fourth in the league in total air yards up to this point. As long as his role remains the same, there’s no reason to second-guess playing him each and every week. The Browns are bottom five in defending the perimeter in terms of passer rating, average depth of throw, touchdown rate, yards per completion, and interception percentage.

We’ve seen star-level production from Pickens over the past month, and I think there’s a decent chance this is his best game of the season.

Jakobi Meyers, WR | LV (vs. DEN)

Things are going sideways in Vegas, and Jakobi Meyers’ high-end volume is becoming less appealing by the week. This team hasn’t cleared 20 points in six of their past seven games, and if you want the granular breakdown, Meyers posted a ninth-percentile yards per route run last week.

That’s just not going to cut it.

Not all weeks are going to be that bad, but the fact that such a performance is within the range of outcomes is concerning. Meyers’ 8.7 targets per game over his last six still hold value, just not in the elevated floor way that we were hoping following the Davante Adams trade.

Meyers is a fringe top-30 receiver for me this week. He gave PPR managers 13.2 points in the Week 5 meeting with the Broncos, earning a 25% target share in a game that saw both Gardner Minshew II and Aidan O’Connell throw north of 15 passes.

Jalen Coker, WR | CAR (vs. KC)

If you’re looking for a gross DFS option, Jalen Coker is your Soppe Special of Week 12 (he’s penciled into a lineup that is built around a Kyler Murray-Trey McBride-DK Metcalf game stack).

It’s easy to forget that we saw Coker earn a season-high eight targets the last time we saw him (against the Giants in Germany) and even easier to overlook anyone on a double-digit home underdog. But that’s what separates us from the field, something that DFS managers are going to need to do more than normal with six teams on a bye and plenty of firepower in the prime-time slots.

For the season, Coker has run 71.8% of his routes from the slot, something I like for two reasons. The first is simple: in a low-octane offense with an unproven signal-caller, I’m happy to roster the “easy button” option. The second is this matchup — the Chiefs rank in the bottom quarter of the league in completion percentage allowed to the slot and top-quarter on perimeter passes.

I know I’m not alone in thinking this game is one-sided, and we know that Carolina’s objective is to develop their young talent. This looks like a good chance to do just that for the interesting prospect out of Holy Cross.

Jalen McMillan, WR | TB (at NYG)

Jalen McMillan is battling a hamstring injury that labeled him as a break-glass-in-case-of-emergency option in Week 10 before the bye (active, zero snaps), a situation that deserves monitoring in deeper formats.

On the surface, his 15 targets over his past two healthy games look good, but those were high-volume games for the offense as a whole. For the season, McMillan’s 13.1% on-field target share this season (0.65 yards per route) is simply not going to cut it.

That said, the Giants are the worst defense in the league in terms of opponent deep pass completion percentage, a vulnerability that an athletic profile like McMillan’s with a 14.2-yard aDOT can exploit. I don’t think we are looking at more than a handful of targets, but there’s a reasonable path to double-digit PPR points; that risk/reward math works out for managers in large leagues or with depth issues.

Jalen Tolbert, WR | DAL (at WAS)

Jonathan Mingo made his debut in Week 11, resulting in a season-low 66.7% snap share for Jalen Tolbert. That more than doubled the field time of his primary WR2 competition, but in an offense that is as limited as Dallas’, any dip in his role is going to be difficult to overcome.

For the season, Tolbert has more routes run than receiving yards and has posted under 8.5 expected PPR points in all but three games. I was high on Tolbert entering this season as a fade on Brandin Cooks — the right idea but no real fruit to show from it.

I’m not breaking news here, but Dallas is an offense I want no piece of. I’m happy to move on from Tolbert in all formats. Give me a Mike Williams or JuJu Smith-Schuster in terms of secondary receivers that have yet to show out as rest-of-season fliers over any non-CeeDee Lamb WR the rest of the way.

Jameson Williams, WR | DET (at IND)

I don’t want to cost myself a job, but shouldn’t a fantasy site just hire Jared Goff and ask him which Lions are going to be featured?

Jameson Williams and Sam LaPorta have had their ups and downs this season, not because they aren’t talented but because Detroit scores too fast in other avenues.

Case in point: You likely weren’t feeling great about playing Williams at halftime last week. He hadn’t done anything and the Lions were up 22 points. As a Williams manager, I know I was already assuming a dud week at intermission and seeing if I could tweak my lineups for the late games to make up for the sub-par performance.

Four plays into the second half, Jamo added 14.9 PPR points to his afternoon, and all was right in the world. In eight games this season, Williams has cleared 75 receiving yards five times, but he also has a pair of single-digit performances.

If we are assuming that LaPorta is back, there is a floor to strongly consider, but with the Colts creating pressure when not blitzing at the fourth-lowest rate this season, Goff should have plenty of time to pick apart this secondary down the field.

You know the risk that comes with play — it’s something I’m willing to overlook in a week where the expectation is for Detroit to score 29 points.

Jauan Jennings, WR| SF (at GB)

Is Jauan Jennings the WR1 in San Francisco?

I’m not going that far just yet, but he certainly appears closer to their WR1 than their WR3. We are looking at the first player to see 10+ targets from Brock Purdy in consecutive games, a level of volume that might not sustain with George Kittle aiming to return, though a minor dip in usage wouldn’t greatly impact my confidence in labeling him as a fantasy starter.

Jaire Alexander (knee) missed the second half last week against the Bears; if he is operating at anything less than full strength, this efficient offense could take advantage of a Green Bay defense that can be overly aggressive at times.

Jennings is sitting on the WR20 line for me this week, ranking in the same tier as other talented receivers who rank second on their team in terms of target projection (namely Jaxon Smith-Njigba and DeVonta Smith).

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR | SEA (vs. ARI)

Since 2019, four receivers under the age of 23 have strung together consecutive games with at least seven catches and 110 receiving yards: Ja’Marr Chase (twice), Puka Nacua, Justin Jefferson, and Jaxon Smith-Njiigba (current).

JSN certainly looks the part, and his upward-trending on-field target share didn’t crater with DK Metcalf back in the mix.

• Week 5: 15.6% on-field target share
• Week 6: 17.6%
• Week 7: 19.4%
• Week 8: 24.1%
• Week 9: 31%
• Week 11: 31.4%

His involvement in the red zone is what suffers the most when Metcalf is active, but if Seattle can approach their implied total in this spot (24 points), Smith-Njigba should be able to produce viable WR2 numbers. It is worth noting that Arizona is a little more vulnerable out wide than in tight, thus making Metcalf my preferred DFS play at price, though I still think you’re playing JSN with confidence.

Jayden Reed, WR | GB (vs. SF)

Thank goodness for that first-drive touchdown last week against the Bears, because Jayden Reed was held to one catch (eight yards) the rest of the afternoon.

I’ve labeled Reed as NFC Zay Flowers, both of whom are promising young receivers providing fantasy managers with plenty of ups and downs this season. I still believe that he’s Green Bay’s alpha receiver, but Reed hasn’t shown it lately (under 30 receiving yards in three of his past five). Is this a sneaky explosion spot?

49ers defensive splits, 2024:

• Yards per pass vs. slot: 8.5 (26th)
• Yards per pass vs. perimeter: 6.0 (fewest)

We know the upside that comes with this profile, and Reed has accessed it when he is involved from the slot. In the four games this season in which he’s earned at least five slot targets, Reed has averaged 21.9 PPR points per game (otherwise: 9.2).

I’m doubling down on my optimism from last week and again have Reed ranked as a top-20 receiver.

Jaylen Waddle, WR | MIA (vs. NE)

Jaylen Waddle displayed a nice connection with Tua Tagovailoa for a moment last week, a glimmer of hope. While his QB was busy pulling off a Houdini act to get free from the pass rush, Waddle uncovered and opened himself up for a 24-yard gain.

That’s what we thought we’d get more of when we drafted Waddle this summer, but it was just a flash in the pan in Week 11 — that was half of his catch total for the game.

Helping the team doesn’t always show up in the fantasy box score (Waddle forced a defensive pass interference with under four minutes left to convert a third down with the game on the line).

Waddle isn’t close to the asset we signed up for this summer, but I also think he’s better than what we’ve seen in Tagovailoa’s four games back (33.8 receiving yards per game). I have him hovering around WR30 this week — in the Jerry Jeudy and Wan’Dale Robinson tier. The Patriots allow 33.3% of red-zone passes to result in touchdowns, the fourth-highest rate in the league, giving me increased optimism that Waddle can reward those who elect to Flex him this weekend.

Jerry Jeudy, WR | CLE (vs. PIT)

Jerry Jeudy recorded his first 80-yard game of the season on a single play (an 89-yard touchdown in the first quarter against the Saints) and now has 30 targets over his past three games. In each of those contests, he’s reached 70 receiving yards — the only Browns player with such a streak within a single season since 2016 is Donovan Peoples-Jones (2022).

Can he keep producing?

Jeudy’s air yards by week, 2024:

• Week 5 at Commanders: 47
• Week 6 at Eagles: 79
• Week 7 vs. Bengals: 94.8
• Week 8 vs. Ravens: 103
• Week 9 vs. Chargers: 131
• Week 11 at Saints: 160.6

You love to see the upward trajectory, but it might not mean much in this specific spot against the second-best defense in opponent passer rating on deep balls. I’ve moved Jeudy up in my ranks over the past month, but the range of outcomes remains concerning and has him slotting in as just an average Flex option in PPR formats for me this week.

Anything can happen in a Jameis Winston-led offense, but with the Steelers (twice), Broncos, and Chiefs on the schedule over the next four weeks, I’d try to avoid the temptation to overreact to the big Week 11 that may have well come on your bench.

Jonathan Mingo, WR | DAL (at WAS)

Jonathan Mingo made his Cowboys debut on Monday night against the Texans (30.4% snap share) and air-balled on four targets. Cooper Rush has completed just 57.3% of his passes this season with two of his 117 attempts resulting in scores. Safe to say, I’m not in a hurry to use roster space to add a fringe piece.

I still think that Jalen Tolbert is ahead of Mingo in the WR pecking order in Dallas and the team made it clear that they have a few tight ends they want to get involved should Jake Ferguson miss time.

Given what the Cowboys gave up to acquire Mingo at the deadline has me interested in his role — for next season.

Jordan Addison, WR | MIN (at CHI)

Cramps resulted in Jordan Addison departing Minnesota’s Week 11 win early, though the hope is that the second-year receiver will be fine entering this weekend. He was able to get you paid last week courtesy of a 47-yard score in the first quarter — stop me if you’ve heard that before.

For his career, over 44% of Addison’s PPR fantasy points have come on touchdowns. That’s not the most stable of profiles, but in this spot, assuming health, I have no issue if you want to go back to him as a Flex option.

This season, the Bears own the fourth-highest opponent average depth of receiver target this season; defenses are looking to challenge them vertically, and we know Addison is more than capable of doing just that. As long as you acknowledge the risk involved, this is a spot you can justify rolling the dice, be it in DFS or season-long.

Josh Downs, WR | IND (vs. DET)

Josh Downs was able to pay off your loyalty last week, but be careful in assuming that the Anthony Richardson version of this offense puts any receiver in a position to be consistent. Downs produced last week in part because he pulled down a 31-yard pass on the first drive, an open window that Richardson nearly missed. The limitations under center are impossible to ignore and they project to give Downs an issue sooner rather than later:

• Week 8 at Houston Texans: 14.5 expected PPR points
• Week 9 at Minnesota Vikings: 14.5 expected PPR points
• Week 10 vs. Buffalo Bills: 18.8 expected PPR points
• Week 11 at New York Jets: 8.4 expected PPR points

That’s a significant dip, and while the actual box score didn’t reflect the change, proceed with caution against the best defense when it comes to defending red-zone passes (51.4 passer rating). Downs is my WR26 this week, a viable Flex play but not the star that he looked like under Joe Flacco.

Josh Reynolds, WR, DEN (at LV)

Josh Reynolds (finger) was activated from injured reserve last week and practiced, but he was ultimately inactive for Week 11. The surprise Broncos are a better team now than the one Reynolds left injured in Week 5, but Denver has yet to unlock the secondary-pass-catcher role next to Courtland Sutton.

Broncos receiving yardage leaders, 2024:

1. Courtland Sutton: 647 receiving yards (14th in the NFL)
2. Devaughn Vele: 281 (108th)
3. Lil’Jordan Humphrey: 263 (113th)
4. Javonte Williams: 250 (120th)
5. Josh Reynolds: 183 (160th)

Could Reynolds be the answer to that question? Do the Broncos need to answer this question?

This is a wait-and-see situation in my eyes. I like Reynolds to fill that role, but with Denver yet to go on bye, you’d be adding Reynolds now to potentially cut him ahead of Week 14 without ever having played him.

I’ll be tracking all the needed rates, so check back weekly for an update, but at the moment, I’m leaving Reynolds on waiver wires.

Joshua Palmer, WR | LAC (vs. BAL)

Joshua Palmer has reached double figures in PPR formats just twice this season and has yet to earn more than five targets in a game. In the shootout with the Bengals last week, he wasn’t a part of where this offense wanted to go — 69.7% of Justin Herbert’s targets went to one of three players (Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston, or Will Dissly).

There isn’t much immediate competition for WR3 targets in the Chargers’ offense, but this remains a team that wants to work through the ground when possible. With Gus Edwards healthy and Dissly’s role expanding, the opportunity count is drying up quickly.

I trust Herbert enough to hold onto Palmer right now, but he’s not untouchable. This profile is weak at best based on the development of the pieces around him and the direction of this offense philosophically.

JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR | KC (at CAR)

JuJu Smith-Schuster (hamstring) is coming off a “good week” of practice ahead of Week 11 and is tentatively expecting to return to action this week.

We saw one good game from the slot receiver (7-130-0 against the Saints over a month ago) and got excited about what he could be in a Patrick Mahomes-led offense, but those days seem to be behind us.

NDeAndre Hopkins shown comfort, leaving a low-volume role at best for a banged-up receiver who hasn’t produced viable fantasy numbers in 1.5 years.

If you’re holding onto Smith-Schuster as a way to be tied to this Kansas City offense, you have one more week. Maybe he can exploit this matchup and prove worthy of a roster spot, but the slot is the one spot where the Panthers have been above average (ninth-lowest touchdown rate and fourth-fewest yards per completion).

Smith-Schuster is off my Week 12 radar, though I’m open to the idea of him hanging onto the back end of PPR rosters.

Justin Jefferson, WR | MIN (at CHI)

The downward pointing arrow on Sam Darnold is less than ideal, and if you want to drop Justin Jefferson from WR2 to WR8, be my guest — it doesn’t really matter. He hasn’t scored in four straight games (and in five of six after scoring in all four September games), but with full health and eight straight games with at least eight targets, there’s no action that needs to be taken.

Jefferson has a reception of 25+ yards in nine of 10 games and is as good a bet as there is in the NFL to take your breath away with a single play. I’m electing to pay up for star running backs in DFS this week, so that’s how I’m fading Minnesota’s star this weekend.

Keenan Allen, WR | CHI (vs. MIN)

You’re being silly if you are holding out hope on Keenan Allen at this point.

Anything could happen, but we are in the business of using stats and trends to predict the future. In that vein, there’s nothing suggesting that Allen is anything more than a name you know from past production than a legitimate asset.

The veteran receiver hasn’t posted a 23% on-field target share since the season opener, has scored in one game this season, and has yet to hit 50 yards in a game. You’re overthinking it if you still have Allen rostered. What would he have to do to work his way into your starting lineup the rest of the way?

For me, we’ve crossed the threshold — there’s nothing I could see that would make me feel good about him, and that means I’m burning a roster spot by keeping him.

Kendrick Bourne, WR | NE (at MIA)

Kendrick Bourne caught all five of his targets for a team-high 70 yards last week, a production line that featured a touchdown grab on the second drive of the game. Anytime you get a big point total on your bench (or waiver wire) it’s frustrating, but chasing a 13.2% target share in an offense led by an inconsistent rookie QB is playing with fire.

Patriots WR snap shares, Week 11:

• Kayshon Boutte: 95.9%
• DeMario Douglas: 57.5%
• Bourne: 47.9%
• Ja’Lynn Polk: 39.7%

With the Patriots ranking 19th in percentage of snaps with three receivers on the field (58.8%; NFL average: 61.9%), I’m having a hard time envisioning time penciling in Bourne for anything close to consistent value.

That’s not to dismiss him outright, I’m not doing that. Much like the battle for the WR2 role in Green Bay, any of these guys could lead New England in targets in a given week. From a projection standpoint, however, none of them are going to grade out strong enough for me to recommend as a Flex option.

Ladd McConkey, WR | LAC (vs. BAL)

Ladd McConkey is coming off his second 100-yard game of the season, an effort that saw him make clutch plays left and right. In the win over the Bengals, he lined up in the slot a season-high 88.9% of the time, something that I love to see in a macro sense.

In the micro, not so much. The Ravens are much better against the slot (11th in slot passer rating) than the perimeter (23rd). That doesn’t mean that McConkey can’t produce, it’s just worth noting as you look to evaluate his floor case. The ceiling case has been evident — here’s a snapshot as to where he stands at the position in PPR PPG since Week 8.

13. Ladd McConkey: 16.5
14. George Pickens: 16.3
15. Justin Jefferson: 16.3
16. Puka Nacua: 16.1

Do I think he’s swimming in those waters for the remainder of the season? I do not, but with this offense maturing, McConkey is a legitimate threat to lead this rookie receiver class in scoring the rest of the way and is deserving of your trust on a consistent basis.

Malik Nabers, WR | NYG (vs. TB)

This is a lost season for the Giants, and is it at least possible to wonder if they are babying their WR1 for years to come? Malik Nabers’ efficiency and volume have dipped since missing a pair of games (concussion), something that very much has my eye.

• Weeks 1-4: 34.4% on-field target share, 1.76 points per target
• Weeks 7-10: 28.6% on-field target share, 1.15 points per target

I think this matchup could rectify that; if it doesn’t, we might have a major problem heading into the most important part of the fantasy season. The Bucs have allowed north of 22 points to a receiver five times this season and over 12.5 PPR points 14 times in their 10 games.

This matchup helps supplement a floor normally lacking due to New York owning the worst red-zone offense in the league, turning just 39.3% of its trips inside the 20-yard line into six points. You’re starting Nabers every week, but your confidence in doing so very much hangs in the balance this weekend.

Marvin Harrison Jr., WR | ARI (at SEA)

Marvin Harrison Jr. has played in 10 games this season. If you remove one quarter from one game, his current 17-game pace is 50 catches for 628 yards and seven touchdowns (for reference, that’s almost the same as 2023 Brandin Cooks: 54-657-8). The overall success of Arizona’s offense has masked some of the stench of this profile, but we are looking at a player who has reached 55 receiving yards just once since September.

Targets per route by week:

• Week 6 at Green Bay Packers: 33.3% (aDOT: 9.5)
• Week 7 vs. Los Angeles Chargers: 23.1% (aDOT: 9.8)
• Week 8 at Miami Dolphins: 19.4% (aDOT: 20.0)
• Week 9 vs. Chicago Bears: 26.3% (aDOT: 17.8)
• Week 10 vs. New York Jets: 20.8% (aDOT: 8.2)

We don’t know what to think of Harrison because the Cardinals don’t know what to think of Harrison. The single-play upside and role remain promising, but that doesn’t make this season any less frustrating.

The Seahawks have bottom-10 defense across the board after a strong start to this season, and maybe that allows the rookie to get on track entering the fantasy playoffs (this is the first of two Seattle games in a three-week stretch). I hope it does. It should.

Harrison is a low-end WR2 for me until he shows me something resembling consistency.

Michael Pittman Jr., WR | IND (vs. DET)

The vibes around Indianapolis are better today than they were this time last week. Anthony Richardson showed signs of life in a tough spot against the Jets. Now, that didn’t mean big numbers for Michael Pittman Jr., but he did see eight targets. That’s at least a step in the right direction.

Production with Anthony Richardson, 2024:

• 27.2% below expectation
• 1.17 PPR points per target

Production with Joe Flacco, 2024:

• 3.6% below expectation
• 1.69 PPR points per target

I still prefer Pittman with Flacco under center and believe that he has been passed by Josh Downs as the WR1 in this offense. That said, I’m leaving the light on when it comes to a potential return to Flex value with time.

He could get there this week with Indy likely playing from behind, but I have my eyes more set on the finishing kick to the season (Titans/Giants in Weeks 16-17 with a bonus of the Jaguars in Week 18 if your league extends that deep).

We can circle back to Pittman this time next week should he see another eight targets this weekend. If Richardson is close to league-average as a passer on Sunday, I’ll be considering Pittman as a viable Flex option next week at New England.

Michael Wilson, WR | ARI (vs. NYJ)

I’m going to stop trying to make Michael Wilson happen — for 2024. I reserve the right to fall for this trap again in August, but for the short term, there simply isn’t enough in this profile to make him roster-worthy.

Wilson’s size makes him a hypothetical big-play threat on a spreadsheet, though that doesn’t matter if the Cardinals’ playbook doesn’t align (single-digit aDOT in three straight games). Week 5 was the last time Wilson reached 35 receiving yards in a game, and with fewer than five targets six times this season, there’s no reason to hang onto this second-year receiver.

Mike Evans, WR | TB (at NYG)

Rashod Bateman, Jameson Williams, Kyle Pitts, Drake London, Darnell Mooney, KhaDarel Hodge, Ricky Pearsall, Deebo Samuel Sr., George Kittle, Jauan Jennings, Christian McCaffrey, Foster Moreau, Juwan Johnson, DeAndre Hopkins, Brian Robinson Jr., Josh Reynolds, Saquon Barkley, Grant Calcaterra, Chris Godwin, Ryan Miller, Sean Tucker, Rachaad White, Jalen McMillan, Sterling Shepard, and Cade Otton.

What is that you ask?

It’s the list of all of the players with a catch gaining more than 25 yards in a Buccaneers game this season. Read through it again. Mike Evans’ name is not on that list.

That feels almost impossible, but with no more than three catches in four of his past six games, it makes some sense. Touchdowns have largely bailed you out, and while his track record suggests that he’s going to score more often than not (100 TD grabs in 161 career games), it’s worth being aware of the limitations, especially coming off of the hamstring injury.

Remember in 2022 when Evans entered the final week of the season needing 83 receiving yards to keep his 1,000-yard streak going and Tampa Bay funneled the offense his way (10-207-3 against the Panthers)?

He needs to average 95 yards per game the rest of the way to get there this season. So there’s that narrative to chance as we come down the stretch, but I tend to be on the more pessimistic side when it comes to this 31-year-old’s profile.

Mike Williams, WR | PIT (at CLE)

Big Mike Williams turned limited usage into viable fantasy numbers in his debut with the Steelers because he came down with a long touchdown. That had some of us (raises hand) rostering him in DFS last week, presuming that an increase in role and a strong matchup was a bargain.

The read was right in that his snap share rose from 12% to 31.1% (I was hoping for me, but at least it showed growth), but he didn’t earn a single target against the Ravens. Rostering Williams is something you should be comfortable doing, but I need to see him earn a handful of targets in a game before counting on him.

My hope is that he plays the majority of snaps this week and positions us to capitalize next week (at Cincinnati) and potentially in the semifinals of most leagues (Week 16 rematch with Baltimore).

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, WR | TEN (at HOU)

Every season, we get spreadsheet breakers — Nick Westbrook-Ikhine is the favorite in the clubhouse for that award in 2024.

Season ranks, 2024:

• Ninth in receiving touchdowns
• 116th in receiving yards
• 163rd in targets
• 177th in receptions

Make it make sense. His 98-yard touchdown last week was just the continuation of a season that I can’t grasp. Despite limited involvement in a low-octane offense, Westbrook-Ikhine has scored in five of his past six games, routinely returning viable numbers without a sniff of sustainability attached to what he is doing.

I’m going to continue to dismiss him — if Westbrook-Ikhine is my downfall in 2024, I’ll live with it. We are approaching Thanksgiving and 66.9% of his PPR production has come via scoring plays in a Will Levis-led offense.

Nico Collins, WR | HOU (vs. TEN)

Nico Collins was on the field for 46.7% of Houston’s offensive snaps in his return to action on Monday night, and it took him one whole play to remind us of what we were missing.

77-yard screen pass, touchdown. Easy game.

A little too easy, as an ineligible man downfield brought the play back, but the point remains that there is some elite explosion in this profile, and the Texans are very much in getting him up to alpha playmaker speed as soon as possible.

Even in a game that ultimately required little aggression through the air, Collins led this team in catches, targets, receiving yards, and yards per route, a sign of things to come. It goes without saying that he’s locked into your lineup and if you’re at all concerned about the Titans allowing the second-fewest receptions of 15+ yards to receivers per game this season, it’s worth noting that L’Jarius Sneed sat out Week 11 with a quad injury.

It’s wheels up for Collins managers!

Noah Brown, WR | WAS (vs. DAL)

Noah Brown remains my second favorite Commanders receiver, but that role holds zero value in most fantasy leagues, especially with roster spots at a premium this time of year. His size profile and role (12.1-yard aDOT) give him upside for DFS managers, but the inability to rack up volume (no more than three receptions in seven of nine games this season) is more damning than his physical tools are promising.

This is a strong offense, and I like filling out my roster with players on teams like that, but this is a concentrated unit and Brown simply isn’t a part of the fun. Feel free to throw your end-of-roster darts elsewhere.

Puka Nacua, WR | LAR (vs. PHI)

If you extend Puka Nacua’s past five regular-season games in which he has been on the field for at least half the offensive snaps, his 17-game pace is 126 catches for 2,071 yards and seven scores.

Yes, he’s that good. We saw it on the 38-yard catch-and-run on Los Angeles’ first drive last week, we saw it again on his sprawling 12-yard touchdown (somehow his first score of the season), and we see it seemingly every week from this second-year star.

PUKA. NACUA.

📺: @NFLonFOX | #RamsHouse pic.twitter.com/YqWw9l9ikK

— Los Angeles Rams (@RamsNFL) November 17, 2024

We’ve seen four WR1s victimize the Eagles for 20+ PPR points (Jayden Reed, Chris Olave, Mike Evans, and Ja’Marr Chase). While Cooper Kupp is great, Nacua, who has seen his yards per route, target share, and red-zone target rate all improve from his historic rookie campaign, profiles as the top dog in this passing game.

Quentin Johnston, WR | LAC (vs. BAL)

On the surface, Quentin Johnston serves as a good reminder that development isn’t linear, and outwardly dismissing a player with pedigree after one poor season is dangerous. He’s been a top-40 receiver in five of his past seven games, a level of production that we would have scoffed at three months ago.

Johnston has established himself as a viable deep threat (15.0-yard aDOT) in an offense that is beginning to open up, a valuable spot to be in this specific matchup. Here are the players to score 10+ points against Baltimore in a game this season solely on passes thrown at least 15 yards down the field:

• Ja’Marr Chase (Week 10): 34 deep points
• Ja’Marr Chase (Week 5): 13.9
• KaVontae Turpin (Week 3): 11.9
• Davante Adams (Week 2): 11.5
• Courtland Sutton (Week 9): 11.5
• Jalen Tolbert (Week 3): 11.4
• Cedric Tillman (Week 8): 10.8
• Elijah Moore (Week 8): 10.7
• Xavier Worthy (Week 1): 10.5

He can produce in this spot, without a doubt. But for all the nice things I just said about him, let’s not overreact and force him into lineups.

He still owns a 59.5% catch rate this season, and while his scoring on 27.3% of his receptions has resulted in nice past production, projecting such a bonkers rate to sustain is unwise (for reference, Ja’Marr Chase leads the league in TD receptions and has scored on 16.4% of his catches this season).

There’s a time and a place for Johnston. If you’re an underdog and want some Monday night upside, go for it. But if your matchup is projected to be a close one, this is the type of profile I find myself avoiding more often than not, something that requires discipline in this sort of matchup.

Johnston is my WR34 this week.

Rashod Bateman, WR | BAL (at LAC)

Remember those preseason hype quotes about how impactful Rashod Bateman was going to be? Go ahead and save a reminder in your phone for August 22nd of this upcoming summer as a reminder to not fall for them.

He’s seen 4-5 targets in five of his past six games. Given that this offense has problems stabilizing any pass catcher, banking on a limited-opportunity role like that offers more risk than reward. We used to label Bateman as one of those “maybe one target can make my day” types, but he is not one of the 146 players this month with a 20-yard reception.

Given the matchup that his defense provides, there are three Charger receivers I’d rather roster this week (and moving forward for that matter) than Bateman.

Ricky Pearsall, WR | SF (at GB)

Week 10 was a bit of a red herring, as the production splits made it seem as if the replacement of Brandon Aiyuk was a two-person job split between Ricky Pearsall and Jauan Jennings in something of a receiver-by-committee situation.

That’s not the case.

Jennings made it clear that he is not only the preferred option of that duo but that he might well be the best target earner on this offense. He accounted for 10 of Brock Purdy’s 21 completions on Sunday against the Seahawks while Pearsall was shut out on just two targets.

I don’t think the splits will be that drastic weekly, but that was a game that George Kittle missed, so even if Pearsall’s slice of this offense grows from where it was last week, there’s only so much upward trajectory as the fifth option in this passing game.

Do you know what Pearsall is? At best, he’s Jennings when this offense was at full speed, and that role wasn’t fantasy-viable (3-5 targets being the most likely outcome with the high-value looks going elsewhere).

A name to keep in mind this offseason as the 49ers shuffle their deck? Sure, but not one that I’m too interested in as we navigate the rest of 2024.

Rome Odunze, WR | CHI (vs. MIN)

Rome Odunze is coming off his second double-digit target day of his young career, and it helped him clear 100 air yards for the third time in four weeks. There is a foundation being laid in Chicago, and I like the prospects of their rookie receiver being a big part of things, it’s just a matter of whether it comes in 2024 or 2025.

With just one top-30 finish since September, outwardly trusting Odunze is a tough sell. With that understanding, I don’t think you’re crazy in considering him as a high-upside Flex or a DFS building block this weekend given his price point. The Vikings allow a league-high 5.2 receiver receptions of 15+ yards per game, and with an end-zone target in seven of his past nine games, one chunk play might be all it takes.

There’s certainly the risk of a floor week if Caleb Williams struggles against Minnesota’s exotic blitz packages — that needs to be considered. I’ve got Odunze ranked in the mid-30s at the position, with other boom/bust candidates like Christian Watson and Quentin Johnston.

Romeo Doubs, WR | GB (vs. SF)

Romeo Doubs looked good last week if you watched the first drive and turned the game off. Sadly, I’ve yet to find a fantasy league that allows you to lock in that production and extend it forward.

Jordan Love’s first completion of last week’s dramatic win was a 17-yarder to Doubs, a nice hookup as he escaped the pocket and found his 6’2” weapon on the sideline. That said, it would have been easy to assume that Doubs suffered an injury of some kind, as he was hardly heard from the rest of the afternoon (he didn’t, he was on the field for 81.4% of the snaps).

His red-zone target rate has slipped from 22% a season ago to 13% this season, and that has taken his fantasy upside with it. Stashing Doubs can be justified given the potency of this Green Bay offense compared to others, but he’s not a must-hold asset in my eyes and certainly shouldn’t be near your Flex spot until proven otherwise.

Tank Dell, WR | HOU (vs. TEN)

Might Tank Dell just kind of be an ordinary receiver? In seven of 10 games this season, he’s finished in the WR32-52 range. While that is more usable than it sounds, it’s certainly not growth from a strong rookie campaign.

As expected, his average depth of target regressed in favor of a slightly more involved role on Monday night with the return of Nico Collins, but it consistently resulted in the same basic production that landed him around 10 PPR points.

The Titans are the toughest deep-ball matchup that Dell can face (second-fewest yards per deep pass allowed this season, trailing only the Texans), and that’s not ideal for a breakout spot. However, he was schemed up to open both halves last week, and that gives me confidence we see another game with 6-8 targets and 9-12 PPR points. Viable? Yes. Special? No.

Terry McLaurin, WR | WAS (vs. DAL)

The Week 11 loss to the Eagles was a mess, but if you’re panicking about Terry McLaurin after one dud, you don’t deserve him. Washington’s alpha had cleared 15 PPR points in five straight games before Thursday’s dud, and that’s closer to what you can expect the rest of the way.

Take a step back and look at the bigger picture. You trust this offense, right? You trust McLaurin’s role, right?

For the season, McLaurin has 6.7 more PPR points than the Commanders’ next three receivers, a role that is rivaled by few. He had no trouble earning targets against these Cowboys last season (19 in two games last year), a defense that was much more productive than the current version.

The only thing that worries me from the ugly performance last week is the fact that Philadelphia comes to town in Week 16. We can cross that bridge when we get to it — I’m starting McLaurin without a second thought in Week 12.

Tyler Lockett, WR | SEA (vs. ARI)

Tyler Lockett entered this season trending in the wrong direction, and the recent emergence of Jaxon Smith-Njigba has all but ended any realistic hope of him projecting as a Flex option moving forward.

Chemistry with Russell Wilson on those deep passes was what made Lockett special for years, but the connection with Geno Smith simply isn’t the same and Father Time is a natural concern for a 32-year-old.

If you’re rounding out your roster with Lockett, I think you’re betting off streaming options that show sparks on a weekly basis. For me, Jalen Coker is a nice option for this weekend, and I’d make that move to see where the rookie goes as opposed to holding onto past production from Lockett.

Tyreek Hill, WR | MIA (vs. NE)

If you can’t feel the Tyreek Hill explosion week coming, I’m not sure we can be friends. Over the past three weeks, he ranks eighth of 42 qualifiers in production over expectation and third in EPA per target. The play on the field backs up the data — his touchdown last week came on a Tua Tagovailoa scramble drill where we saw some of the non-verbal communication between the two that has made them such a potent tandem in the past.

He draws a New England defense that allowed him to account for one-third of Miami’s receptions in Week 5 (a Tyler Huntley start) and one that coughed up touchdowns to him in both meetings a season ago.

I think you’ll be rewarded for your patience with Hill for the final month-plus of the season, and it could well mean rostering fantasy’s top receiver in Week 12.

Wan’Dale Robinson, WR | NYG (vs. TB)

At this point, we know who Wan’Dale Robinson is and you know if what he offers is a fit for your specific situation.

Robinson has hauled in at least five passes in seven of his past eight games. You need the volume because the yardage total is never going to carry you (he hasn’t hit 55 yards in a game since September).

The scoring equity is never where we want it, and the lack of a ceiling makes him unappealing in anything but perfect spots, but could this be one of those unique spots?

The Buccaneers allow opponents to complete the second-highest percentage of passes when throwing to the slot but are a top-10 unit when it comes to perimeter efficiency. If you’re ever going to play Robinson, this is as good a spot as you’re going to find yourself, and that has him flirting with my top 30 in PPR formats for Week 12.

Xavier Legette, WR | CAR (vs. KC)

I remain intrigued by the direction of things in Carolina, and Xavier Legette is a piece of that puzzle. He’s out-produced expectations in all three games with Bryce Young back under center, something that I think will be interesting to take a deep dive into this summer. But it’s not something I’m trusting down the stretch of this fantasy season, understanding that every matchup takes on increased importance.

Legette caught 5+ passes just once this season. While four touchdowns on 29 receptions is a fun rate to extend for a full season of regular looks, it’s not a rate I’m labeling as sustainable in this offense, and certainly not against the eighth-best scoring defense in the NFL.

Legette sits outside of my top 40 at the position this week, though I am keeping him rostered — a Cowboys-Cardinals-Buccaneers finish to the fantasy season is enough to have me holding onto my shares.

Xavier Worthy, WR | KC (at CAR)

Counting on Xavier Worthy at this point is a good way to make Sunday less fun. He has all the potential in the world, and yet, things are never easy. Even in a week in which he was ultimately productive (68 yards and a touchdown), you get plays like this that have the potential to swing fantasy matchups.

Xavier Worthy dragged his foot before he caught the ball, would have been a huge play pic.twitter.com/95lFV2IAKU

— Tedd Buddwell 🏀🏈 (@TedBuddy8) November 17, 2024

The optimist will point out that he is in a position to make these errors — with experience, hopefully, they get solved. But it’s been a maddening year. Nothing about this matchup, obviously, scares you, as the Panthers allow the third-highest opponent passer rating on deep passes (124.1 with an 11.3% touchdown rate). That puts the Kansas City burner on Flex radars, but we’ve learned through 11 weeks that it won’t be easy.

The path to playing Worthy is your roster construction. If you have star players with an elevated floor (Derrick Henry, Amon-Ra St. Brown, etc.), you can afford to take a shot like this. If you’re relying on options like Zay Flowers or Malik Nabers, I’d rather use this starring spot for a little more stability. Worthy posted a sub-60% snap share last week, just the third time he has done that, and a potential clue that these types of plays are wearing down the Chiefs as well.

Play him for the splash-play potential but proceed with caution.

Zay Flowers, WR | BAL (at LAC)

The up-and-down season for Zay Flowers was never more prevalent than on Sunday, as he had what looked to be a back-breaking drop late in the game, a drive he’d later finish with a 16-yard touchdown grab to keep the Ravens in it.

If that single drive wasn’t symbolic of 2+ months of rostering Flowers, I don’t know what is. He leads the league in games with 110+ receiving yards (four) and ranks tied for fourth in the number of games with at least six targets and under 40 receiving yards (three) among receivers.

On paper, this doesn’t look like a great spot for Flowers, as the Chargers allow the second-fewest yards after the catch per reception to the slot this season. Largely, the receivers who have done damage against Los Angeles fall into a much different physical stature bucket than Flowers.

• Ja’Marr Chase: 6’, 201 pounds
• Tee Higgins: 6’4”, 219 pounds
• Calvin Ridley: 6’1”, 190 pounds
• Cedric Tillman: 6’3”, 216 pounds

Flowers stands 5’9” and weighs 175 pounds. With limited options, I doubt that you have three receivers (or a third running back) that I’d start over Baltimore’s roller coaster of a WR1, but I’m entering this week with lower expectations.

Week 12 Fantasy Football Tight Ends

Brock Bowers, TE | LV (vs. DEN)

On Sunday, Brock Bowers recorded his second game with at least eight catches, 95 yards, and a touchdown. He joins Mike Ditka (1961) and Robert Awalt (1987) as the only rookie tight ends to have multiple such games.

The first such game this season? The Week 5 loss to these Broncos, a game in which Bowers saw one-third of the targets directed his way.

The Raiders are as limited as anyone on the offensive end, but at least they are self-aware about the situation. Jakobi Meyers led the team in rushing over the weekend while he and Bowers saw 56.4% of passes directed their way.

Gardner Minshew II is capable of identifying mismatches, something that we saw last week on Bowers’ 23-yard touchdown as the coverage was made obvious via motion. That’s enough to keep him as a Tier 1 option the rest of the way.

Do I expect Vegas to score a bunch of points? Of course not, but they are averaging just 18.7 points per game this season, and that hasn’t stopped Bowers from pacing for a rookie-record 119 receptions.

Cade Otton, TE | TB (at NYG)

Cade Otton has a touchdown or 8+ targets in five straight games and has proven to be a cheat code for anyone who scooped him off of the waiver wire when Tampa Bay suffered its rash of injuries.

Good work!

You’ve earned wins over the past month because of your savvy, but might the savvy play now be to move on?

With Mike Evans on the field, 2024:

• 0.95 yards per route
• 14.8% on-field target hare
• 4.1 aDOT

Without Evans on the field, 2024:

• 1.69 yards per route
• 22% on-field target share
• 6.6 aDOT

Evans is expected to return coming out of the bye, and with the Bucs entering as a road favorite, could we be looking at a lower-volume game in terms of pass attempts?

With six teams on a bye, there aren’t a ton of options at the tight end position to pivot to; that is why Otton remains a fringe starter for me, but I’m not at all interested in going this direction in DFS formats.

Cole Kmet, TE | CHI (vs. MIN)

If we can’t count on any of the receivers in Chicago under Caleb Williams, how are we supposed to commit to its tight end? During the current four-game losing streak, Cole Kmet has turned 126 routes into just eight low-upside targets, making him an afterthought in all formats.

The Bears tanked Kmet’s slot usage in the loss to the Packers last week, taking away the efficient targets from a profile that already carries very little scoring equity. Kmet is my lowest-ranked TE who is consistently on the field. I’d rather stream Chig Okonkwo or Ja’Tavion Sanders this week (and moving forward) if pushed.

Dallas Goedert, TE | PHI (at LAR)

Dallas Goedert’s skill set might not be flashy, but he’s reached double figures in PPR points in each of his past four healthy games and is averaging north of 2.0 fantasy points per target for the third time in four seasons.

The volume is never going to overwhelm given the level of talent playing alongside him, but his 20.6% on-field target share is pacing for the best mark of his career. With an aDOT that is up 30.9% from last year, there’s more upside in this profile than you may assume.

Talent-wise, Goedert may not be much different than anyone in this third tier of tight end, but in an offense that I trust to put him in a position to get valuable looks consistently, he’s a weekly starter for me; that’s true this week against a bottom-10 defense when defending tight ends in terms of touchdown rate, completion percentage, and yards per reception.

Dalton Schultz, TE | HOU (vs. TEN)

Dalton Schultz saw seven targets in Monday’s dismantling of Dallas (his second-highest total of the season), but he managed just 33 yards. His regular-season scoring drought is now over a calendar year, and without much equity in that regard, his path to upside isn’t clear for standard leagues.

There’s a reasonable PPR floor that is worth chasing, as he is pretty clearly the third option in this passing game, but do so with the understanding that Nico Collins, Tank Dell, and Joe Mixon will soak up the vast majority of opportunities in scoring position.

David Njoku, TE | CLE (vs. PIT)

David Njoku has at least five catches (and seven targets) in five straight games. Last week against the Saints, he showed me an important tweak in his usage under Jameis Winston.

It’s easy to fall in love with the YOLO stylings of Winston, and we’ve seen it pay off for a receiver in this offense consistently. However, it comes with a wide range of outcomes (just ask any Jerry Jeudy or Cedric Tillman manager).

On Sunday, Njoku was hyperefficient (nine catches on nine targets). It was by design, with eight of those looks coming less than five yards downfield.

While the athletic profile is a ceiling elevator, I’m more interested in a heightened floor at the TE position these days, and what we saw in Week 11 has me optimistic that we are looking at a top-five tight end due to consistency.

The Steelers have recorded their top two blitz-rate games of the season over the past two weeks. If that level of aggression is here to stay, we could be looking at a handful of quick hitters (be it screens, slants, etc.) to Njoku, a role that would give him the potential to swing matchups in your favor this week.

George Kittle, TE | SF (at GB)

We knew that George Kittle was battling a hamstring injury entering the weekend, though his being ruled inactive for Week 11 was a bit of a surprise. The All-Pro tight end has played only one full season in his NFL career (2018), so missed time isn’t something new. Nevertheless, the hope is that Kittle will be ready for the Packers this weekend.

Assuming Kittle is active for the 49ers, he’s active for you. He’s an elite option and a focal part of an efficient offense, but we’ve seen optimism rise in him post-Brandon Aiyuk injury (based on DFS ownership, the questions I get on X, etc.). Since the beginning of last season, however, the data suggests Kittle is nearly the exact same asset, regardless of Aiyuk’s presence.

With Aiyuk on the field, 2024:

• 2.43 fantasy points per target
• 2.29 yards per route
• 21% target rate

Without Aiyuk on the field, 2024:

• 2.32 fantasy points per target
• 2.44 yards per route
• 20.9% target rate

The Packers haven’t played many teams that rely on tight end production the way the 49ers do, but in those spots, they’ve allowed fantasy numbers to the position.

• Evan Engram/Brenton Strange: Nine catches, 95 yards, and a TD (10 targets)
• Trey McBride: Eight catches and 96 yards (eight targets)

I’ll be tracking Kittle’s practice habits throughout the week, though I’m cautiously optimistic that he’ll be active, which is why he sits atop my tight end rankings.

Hunter Henry, TE | NE (at MIA)

Hunter Henry has at least five catches in four of his past five games. While the quality of those receptions is very much in question (one touchdown this season, seven games without a catch gaining more than 15 yards), volume talks at the back end of the tight end rankings.

The Dolphins’ blitz rate has fallen off a cliff over the past two weeks, which could result in clean releases for a YAC threat like Henry. Austin Hooper’s presence continues to be annoying (4+ targets in four of his past five games), but with Henry being targeted on 35.1% of his red-zone routes in November, I think there’s enough potential to make him a top-10 TE option in a week where New England may abandon the run early on.

Isaiah Likely, TE | BAL (at LAC)

The 42-yard catch and run in the first quarter last weekend was a good reminder of how impactful Isaiah Likely’s athletic profile can be, but the rest of the game was a reminder of how little he is used.

Likely played just 48.1% of Baltimore’s snaps in the loss to Pittsburgh, his lowest in a healthy game this season, putting him in a difficult spot to produce with consistency. I can justify rostering him based on his physical tools and the potency of Baltimore’s offense, but counting on Likely weekly is going to be more maddening than impactful.

This isn’t a good matchup, and even if you’re willing to dive into a tough one, I prefer Ja’Tavion Sanders, a young option whose team is motivated to develop talent instead of aiming to win now.

Jake Ferguson, TE | DAL (at WAS)

Jake Ferguson left Week 11’s loss early with a concussion. The 25-year-old entered this season with extreme promise after catching 71 balls last season and recording a touchdown hat trick in the playoffs. But the per-catch production has fallen off a cliff this season, and that doesn’t seem likely to improve with Cooper Rush under center.

Keep an eye on this situation, but I’d make secondary plans. Ferguson is, at best, a streaming-level option in this offense. Options like Ja’Tavion Sanders, Will Dissly, and Jonnu Smith are available depending on the depth of your league, all of whom are healthy and trending better.

Ja’Tavion Sanders, TE | CAR (vs. KC)

The Panthers are in the business of developing their young talent and Ja’Tavion Sanders certainly qualifies as such. The rookie averaged 13.1 yards per catch during his collegiate career (99-catch sample size), and for redraft purposes in a bottom-tier offense, I love that Carolina is leaning into his athleticism.

• Weeks 1-5: 1.5-yard aDOT
• Weeks 6-11: 6.6-yard aDOT

The inconsistent volume and lack of red-zone snaps are stopping Sanders from cracking my top 12, but by catching 13 of his last 14 targets, he’s a viable streamer for me — especially when you consider that Carolina will be operating in a pass-heavy script with regularity.

Jonnu Smith, TE | MIA (vs. NE)

We were confident that the AFC East would provide us with one fantasy difference-maker at the TE position. Is Jonnu Smith now that player?

The veteran is one of two at the position this season with multiple games of 90 receiving yards and a TD catch (other: Brock Bowers). While I don’t think 6-101-2 stat lines like last week against the Raiders are going to be the norm (a 57-yard touchdown in which he was left completely uncovered helped), with 6+ targets in five of his past six games, there’s enough of a floor in Smith’s profile to consider him a TE1 moving forward.

Even if you don’t want to bet on a 29-year-old who has never earned looks at a high rate (zero seasons with more than 50 receptions), the gravity of the offense around him has me sold. With speed going in every direction as a part of this motion-centric Miami offense, Smith’s role is advantageous in valuable spots.

The Patriots are often attacked deep downfield (fifth-highest opponent average depth of throw), and if the Dolphins look to execute that plan with their burners extending the field, another 5-6 catch projection makes sense to me.

That’s enough to slide Smith into my top 12 tight ends.

Mark Andrews, TE | BAL (at LAC)

The touchdown barrage entering Week 11 was fun, but it was never going to be sustainable. This season, Mark Andrews has seen 40.1% of his PPR fantasy points produced via scores, a rate that spiked to 34.9% last season from 20.7% in 2022.

This is who Andrews is at this point. The Ravens will have better offensive days moving forward, but they no longer require their veteran TE to produce in order to get there.

My fringe TE1 ranking of Andrews is more a nod to the superhero abilities of Lamar Jackson than anything else. The days of elite volume are behind us here, and the next tight end who clears eight PPR points against the Chargers without seeing at least seven targets will be the first this season.

Pat Freiermuth, TE | PIT (at CLE)

The idea of betting on Pat Freiermuth has always been rooted in his ability to score, something that hasn’t changed with Russell Wilson under center. The fourth-year tight end doesn’t have a game with more than three targets since September, something I could overlook if he was benefiting from the heightened offensive expectations in Pittsburgh, but he’s not.

Freiermuth saw three end-zone targets to open last season and has seen just two since, the most recent of which came in Week 12 of last season. I’m fine with attaching yourself to Pittsburgh’s offense but understand that this is as touchdown-dependent of a player as there is at the position.

Freiermuth is firmly in the “experienced TE that I don’t trust but you can play and pray if need be” tier that also includes Andrews and Zach Ertz.

Sam LaPorta, TE | DET (at IND)

Fun fact: Since the Week 5 bye, Sam LaPorta only has finished inside the top 10 or outside of the top 25.

OK, so maybe that’s not as much “fun” as it is a numeric way to describe your disappointment.

LaPorta sat out last week’s dismantling of Jacksonville (props to you if you streamed Brock Wright’s touchdown as a backup option) with a shoulder injury, the first DNP of his young career, and not a great sign for his loyal fantasy managers.

A less-than-full-strength LaPorta is a concern given that the 9-1 Lions are likely to be more forward-looking than most teams down the stretch.

We’ve seen some breadcrumbs laid before the injury (26.3% on-field target share from Weeks 8-10, up from a putrid 10.2% prior), and that’s enough reason for me to rank him as my TE11 this season, sandwiched between Jonnu Smith and Pat Freiermuth.

Cade Otton was a popular midseason add, but assuming all reports remain optimistic on Mike Evans, LaPorta would be my play, health permitting if you roster both.

T.J. Hockenson, TE | MIN (at CHI)

That’s now two dud performances in three weeks back from injury for T.J. Hockenson. And while I still think there’s a role to be had here, I can’t help but be nervous that he’s not being extended.

• Week 9 vs. Colts: 45.1% snap share
• Week 10 at Jaguars: 46.3% snap share
• Week 11 at Titans: 44.8% snap share

Is it possible that Hockenson missed the peaks of the Sam Darnold roller coaster and is joining the ride at the worst possible time? It’s possible, though I don’t think what we saw over the weekend is sustainable.

In the win over the Titans, Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison saw the majority of targets with the remaining 46.7% being spread pretty evenly among eight Vikings players. That’s how you get to a 10% target share for one of the better players at his position in the league.

I don’t think Addison earns looks at the rate we saw on Sunday, and I find it unlikely that we get that little target clarity again.

In leagues with a deadline coming up and a team in good shape, I’d be circling a desperate Hockenson manager and trying to poach him (the bye week is in the rearview and the remaining schedule can be navigated).

Travis Kelce, TE | KC (at CAR)

After three straight top-three TE finishes and sucking us back in, Travis Kelce laid an egg that could have easily cost you a critical matchup. In the game of the week, the veteran turned a 78.8% snap share into two catches and eight yards, being outgained through the air by everyone’s favorite No. 88 in recent memory … Peyton Hendershot!

The fantasy performance was Kelce’s second-worst of his career when seeing at least four targets. On the bright side, he has followed each of his past two single-digit games with a TE3 finish.

It’s OK to be frustrated, but I’d encourage you to avoid making any rage-based decisions.

Trey McBride, TE | ARI (at SEA)

• Trey McBride has more rushing touchdowns than receiving touchdowns this season.
• Trey McBride has more fumble recovery touchdowns than receiving touchdowns this season.

It’s been a weird year for McBride in the scoring department, but I think you’re borderline crazy if you’re the least bit worried. He exploded last season and his target per red-zone route run this season is higher than in 2023, a major trend to buy into given the offense’s potency.

McBride has seen an end-zone target in consecutive games and has posted an on-field target share north of 23% in five of his past six games. Arizona’s budding star has six top-10 finishes this season without a touchdown catch at a position that is overly reliant on touchdowns, something that speaks to his consistency.

The volume keeps McBride ranked among the elite without good fortune, and if he can just live up to expectations when it comes to scoring, he’s as good a bet as any to lead the position in scoring the rest of the way.

The scores are coming, and a late-season barrage could start against a Seahawks defense that ranks bottom-five in touchdown prevention following a hot first three weeks.

Tucker Kraft, TE, | GB (vs. SF)

Tucker Kraft is the latest example of how being on the field guarantees you nothing at the tight end position. Kraft played 93% of Green Bay’s offensive snaps against the Bears, yet failed to haul in his lone target.

We liked what we saw from Kraft early this season, and he is attached to an above-average offense. But with an on-field target share no higher than 12% in four of his past five games, the role simply isn’t enough for you to count on moving forward.

I’m not writing Kraft off as potentially mattering in a few weeks, but he’s not a starter until we get proof of concept. He was an afterthought on Sunday, and that was a game in which Jayden Reed (two targets) was hardly used and the Packers were trailing for 41.9% of their snaps.

I’d rather play Jonnu Smith (vs. Patriots), something I didn’t think I’d be saying at this point.

Zach Ertz, TE | WAS (vs. DAL)

Zach Ertz is coming off his best game of the season (6-47-1), though much of that production came on a late drive where the Eagles were content to let Washington move the ball if it meant time coming off the clock.

That said, all points count the same, and the veteran tight end has now caught at least four passes in five of his past six games. Ertz has seen his work rate from the slot vary on a week-to-week basis — if the Commanders commit to that role, we are looking at a weekly fantasy starter (80.6% catch rate when in the slot this season, 60% otherwise).

Ertz is a top-12 option for me in this spot, as I’m projecting the slot role to be there for the taking against a Dallas team allowing touchdowns to that spot on the field at the third-highest rate in the league.