This game of ours is one of very little separation, and that makes every decision critical. As much as I’d love to help every one of you with your specific questions (I’ll try — @KyleSoppePFN), that’s a big ask.
What I can give you, every single week, are my takes. My statistically backed rankings are available, but you, the devoted fantasy manager, need more than simply a number next to a name. You need to know why I stand where I do, and that’s my goal with this novel.
If you have a question, hit me up on Twitter, but my hope is that this extended piece will give you the insight you’re looking for without relying on me landing on your specific question before lineups lock.
You don’t have to get ready if you stay ready — this piece, is me staying ready to help you win the week!
Looking to make a trade in your fantasy league? Having trouble deciding who to start and who to sit? Setting DFS lineups? Check out PFN’s Free Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer, Start/Sit Optimizer, and DFS Lineup Optimizer to help you make the right decision!
Divisional Round Fantasy Football Quarterbacks
C.J. Stroud, QB | HOU (at KC)
C.J. Stroud is off to a promising start to his career, and that’s great. During the 2024 Wild Card Round, he became the sixth QB to win a playoff game in each of his first two seasons. I’m intrigued by what he can do with this franchise. Houston made it clear that they want their fate tied to their franchise signal caller and, in theory, that’s all we can ask for:
Texans’ highest first-half dropback rates, 2024:
- Saturday vs. Chargers: 78.8%
- Week 16 at Chiefs: 77.1%
- Week 12 vs. Titans: 73.9%
- Week 15 vs. Dolphins: 73.9%
- Week 17 vs. Ravens: 71%
My concern is the regression in stretching the field and how that projects in this specific spot. Stroud threw 116 deep passes (15+ air yards) a season ago and 122 this season. The attempt count was similar, but the success rate was very different.
- 2023: Nine touchdowns and zero interceptions
- 2024: Five touchdowns and seven interceptions
He wasn’t much better last week (3-of-6 on these passes with an interception), and if he can’t connect on the home-run balls, he’s likely to finish this weekend as the lowest-scoring player at the position.
Chiefs vs. deep passes, 2024:
- Yards per pass: 11.8 (23rd)
- Yards per completion: 29.2 (27th)
Otherwise:
- Yards per pass: 5.8 (fifth)
- Yards per completion: 8.0 (third)
Teams have been unable to win underneath against Kansas City, and Stroud has been unable to consistently produce vertically. Could you spin that in a positive light? You certainly could.
“Stroud has Nico Collins and the Chiefs are vulnerable down the field”
Easy.
You could tell that story, but I’m trusting the 19 weeks of data that suggest that this Houston offense isn’t going to produce splash plays in bulk. If you see it differently, you stand to put yourself in a very good late-swap position. This is the first game of the week, and that means that if you nail this call (and potentially even in a stack), you essentially have a head start on the majority of the field.
Jalen Hurts, QB | PHI (vs. LAR)
Jalen Hurts left fantasy managers wanting more last week, but it really wasn’t his fault. The Packers fumbled the opening kickoff, leaving the Eagles with a short field and an early lead. Green Bay battled, but Philadelphia controlled that game from the jump, and that limited him to 27 opportunities (pass + rush attempts).
The fact that we could see something similar happen this weekend is why I’m not considering Hurts in the same way that I am Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, or Jayden Daniels. He missed A.J. Brown last week on a fake Tush Push pass that we’ve been waiting to see (could have been a 51-yard touchdown) — it’s not the miss that bothers me, it’s the fact that he needs to be close to perfect through the air if the volume floor presents itself.
We have to pick our lanes this week, and the story I’m telling is that this is a Saquon Barkley game.
Jared Goff, QB | DET (vs. WAS)
Jared Goff wasn’t asked to do much in Week 18, so don’t lose track of the fact that he cleared 22 fantasy points in each of his previous four games (two with David Montgomery and two without).
We saw him pile up yards last season in the playoffs (270+ through the air in all three games); while the lack of rushing upside keeps him outside of the top tier, a rested version of him at home against a defense that can be had has him checking in as my top-ranked pocket QB of the week.
I expect Washington to try to speed him up to cover its flaws in the secondary. It ranks sixth in blitz rate this season (31.6%; NFL average: 25.2%), and while the idea of pressuring a QB without mobility makes sense on paper, I don’t love attacking this Detroit team in that way.
Goff completed 26 of 33 passes (78.8%) against the blitz in three games to end the regular season, success that I’m buying as reasonably sustainable given the growth of Jameson Williams and the re-emergence of Sam LaPorta.
I’d prefer David Montgomery to sit, but assuming he is active, Goff is my QB5 this week and a nice contrarian play as the athletic quarterbacks are likely to soak up much of the ownership. His “good” has been at an MVP level, and he could be fantasy’s MVP this week if he can hit the 300-yard bonus at an average price tag and low ownership.
Jayden Daniels, QB | WAS (at DET)
To me, this is the YOLO play of the week. We know what the other three high-end athletes bring to the table this week.
- Jalen Hurts: Tush Push with elite pass catchers
- Josh Allen: Highest ceiling in the league
- Lamar Jackson: Premier dual threat thriving next to Derrick Henry
Jayden Daniels has been phenomenal during his NFL introduction, that’s obvious. He posted the first 320/820 season in NFL history (completions/rush yards) and has nine games with at least 33 fantasy scoring chances (completions + rushing attempts) this season.
No other player has more than four such games. The upside is already elite; while that’s enticing, the wide range of outcomes in this spot is what makes him a play for the bold.
We saw in their Week 18 win over the Vikings that the Lions are more than capable of heating up the opposition if they want to. This season, they rank seventh in pressure rate (fourth in blitz rate) and, based on what we’ve seen through 19 weeks of Daniels’ career, that means we are going to get an ultra-aggressive approach, for better or worse.
- Daniels’ aDOT ranking, when pressured: fifth
- Daniels ‘aDOT ranking, when not pressured: 32nd
The Lions made life hell for Sam Darnold with their exotic blitzes. While a pocket-locked QB is obviously different, it was telling to me that they trusted their defense enough to single-cover Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison.
It worked in that game; considering that the Commanders don’t threaten defenses in two-receiver sets like the Vikings do, I worry about the floor.
Daniels’ athletic gifts give him the potential to undo any defense at any time, so I’m not counting him out by any means. He’s one of four quarterbacks that I think can break this slate, but of them, he’s the one I have projected to be the most likely to kill your chances of cashing.
I often order chicken parm when I go out. I love chicken parm, and it’s generally difficult to mess up. I have nothing against steak, but if it’s not cooked my way, I leave unsatisfied — Daniels is the steak this week. I expect his ownership numbers to be in the same bucket as the other three elite options with his range of outcomes being great, but I’m targeting the Ravens/Bills game for my signal caller instead.
Josh Allen, QB | BUF (vs. BAL)
Josh Allen picked apart a strong Broncos defense last weekend (76.9% completion rate, his highest since posting a 78.3% rate in Week 1 against the Cardinals) and faces a less imposing secondary in the Divisional Round.
Allen was phenomenal in the Wild Card win. He posted his eighth straight playoff game with multiple passing touchdowns or a rushing score and did it in a very mature way.
Target distribution on Allen’s first 12 throws vs. Denver, 2024 Wild Card:
- Khalil Shakir: three targets
- Dawson Knox: two targets
- Curtis Samuel: two targets
- Dalton Kincaid: two targets
- Amari Cooper: two targets
- Keon Coleman: one target
The production was interesting to me on a few levels. On one hand, I like his willingness to take what the defense was giving him. On the other, we saw flashes of aggression that differed from last season. now I’m wondering if it’s the beginning of a trend:
- 2024: 8.3 regular season aDOT (2024 Wild Card: 9.2)
- 2023: 8.7 regular season aDOT (2023 playoffs: 6.3)
The Ravens were vulnerable down the field to open the season, but they’ve tweaked their depth chart and have been a different defense recently.
Ravens’ yards allowed per deep pass, 2024:
- Weeks 1-11: 14.1 (fourth most; league average: 11.7)
- Weeks 12-18: 6.9 (second fewest; league average: 10.9)
Buffalo had the ball for nearly 42 minutes against Denver. I don’t think they have a shot at doing that against Baltimore. That said, Allen doesn’t need a high volume of plays to leave his fingerprints all over the DFS leaderboard.
Right now, I have Allen penciled in as my highest-exposure QB, opting to believe that we are in the midst of a transformational year as a passer (recent example: 13-of-16 with two touchdowns on third downs over his past two games, ignoring the one-snap Week 18) rather than fearing Lamar Jackson’s ability to keep him off the field.
Lamar Jackson, QB | BAL (at BUF)
The matchup is an interesting one — the Bills were able to heat up Bo Nix over the weekend, but they are the lowest-pressure-rate playoff team when looking at the larger picture. How sticky do you believe Buffalo’s numbers from last week are? For me, it impacts where you stand on Jackson and the Ravens as a whole.
Lamar Jackson’s yards per attempt when pressured by season:
- 2023: 8.7 yards
- 2024: 6.6 yards
Lamar Jackson’s yards per attempt when not pressured by season:
- 2023: 7.8 yards
- 2024: 9.8 yards
Since Week 9, Jackson has completed 75.8% of his non-pressured passes with 20 touchdowns and just one interception on those 161 attempts. If you believe that what we saw last week from Buffalo was an aberration, I think you can play Jackson with the utmost confidence.
I loved what we saw from Todd Monken’s script last week, though I fear that it was more matchup-driven than predictive. After an initial Derrick Henry run and a completed pass, Jackson carried the ball on five straight snaps. If they bring a similar script to the table this week, I think they loosen up Buffalo’s secondary and pave the way for their QB to be fantasy’s top performer this weekend.
There are naturally two sides to that coin. If Monken elects to bloody the nose of the home team with Henry early and often, we could be looking at a low-volume game from Jackson that will make paying off his DFS price tag difficult.
We saw the reigning MVP control the Week 4 meeting (14-of-19 for 156 yards and two touchdowns alongside 54 rushing yards and another score), counting numbers that would have been more impressive if it was more competitive.
I do think this game comes down to the wire; that is why the two QBs in this game sit atop my rankings. I’m expecting Josh Allen and Jayden Daniels to garner more ownership this weekend, and that opens me up to at least match the field in terms of exposure to Jackson.
Matthew Stafford, QB | LAR (at PHI)
The Rams didn’t need Matthew Stafford to do much in the second half of last week’s dominating effort against the Vikings, and that suppressed his volume in a major way (27 attempts). He did, however, prove capable of executing a clear plan — if you trust Sean McVay to scheme up creativity, Stafford could clear 275 passing yards for the seventh time this season and pay off his very manageable price tag.
He threw for 243 yards and two touchdowns against the Eagles earlier this season, and that came in a 37-20 loss.
Is that his ceiling? In that game, Los Angeles was behind for the entire second half and got a vintage Cooper Kupp performance (11 targets and a touchdown). If all of those things fall into place, Stafford will finish as a viable place to save money but not a slate-breaker. There is far too much upside elsewhere at the QB position to target a road underdog playing outside in what could be a wintery mix of precipitation.
If I’m pivoting from the expensive quarterbacks this week, Stafford still ranks on a per-dollar basis behind Jared Goff and Patrick Mahomes.
Patrick Mahomes, QB | KC (vs. HOU)
We’ve got Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen well ahead of the field in terms of pricing, and the versatility of Jayden Daniels and Jalen Hurts have them occupying a second tier.
So yes, we have a four-game slate and a well-rested Patrick Mahomes ranked in the middle of Tier 3 when facing a defense that ranked 20th in pressure rate and 29th in opponent passing touchdown rate.
That’s tempting on its own, and if early ownership projections hold, it’s going to be hard to not get sucked in this weekend. This comes down to your faith in “Playoff Mahomes” being a different animal than the version we’ve seen up to this point
- 2023: 17.51 regular season PPG and 19.53 playoff PPG
- 2024: 17.69 regular season PPG and …
Mahomes has cleared 18.5 fantasy points in five of his past six playoff games, a trend that could be extended this week given the matchup. If that’s the case, a low-owned K.C. stack is likely to be sitting atop your standings — it’s just a little bit of a tough sell for me.
In Week 16, it took Mahomes 41 attempts to throw for 260 yards and a single score against the Texans. The reflex is to elevate the usage projections for this passing game with the season on the line, but history suggests the opposite:
- 2020-23 regular season: 42.2 dropbacks and 37.7 attempts per game
- 2022-23 playoffs: 39.7 dropbacks and 35.6 attempts per game
Mahomes is priced as QB6 across the full-slate DFS board this weekend, and that is right where I have him in my per-dollar rankings at the position. You could argue him against Jared Goff for QB5, but the top-four quarterbacks are counted on in fantasy-friendly ways that Mahomes simply isn’t these days.
I’m using Kansas City as a one-off team this week — that means picking a running back or pass catcher that I like and being on my way. I’m not going to have much exposure to the best player in our game.
Divisional Round Fantasy Football Running Backs
Brian Robinson Jr., RB | WAS (at DET)
Playing DFS is often about telling a story — a story for each game and for the slate as a whole. Your precision in storytelling needs to be honed this week due to the nature of the slate, and while I could see how you could get there on Brian Robinson Jr., it’s a tale I’m not willing to say with my trust.
This season, the Commanders rank fifth in the percentage of yards gained on the ground when the game is tied or they have a lead (13th when trailing), and the best way to defend the 2024 Lions is to keep them off the field. Your story involves the second-highest-scoring first-quarter team in the NFL (6.1 PPG) jumping out to a lead and operating from a position of power.
Like I said, I can see how you land on that narrative. If you nail this script, you’re getting 17+ touches (a number Robinson has reached seven times this season) at a major discount and picking up on the field as Washington dictates the tempo and Detroit’s skill position players are relegated to spectating.
Am I talking myself into exposure here?
Not so much. Robinson has failed to clear 13 carries in four straight games and, realistically, hasn’t earned any role extension (under 2.5 yards per carry in three of those contests). I thought Austin Ekeler looked fine over the weekend. While Robinson caught a season-high four passes last week, he’s largely underwhelmed on the versatility front this season.
At the end of the day, I’m comfortable betting against the script in this story, but also how much you realistically gain if you are right. Last week, 19 of Robinson’s 16 rushing yards came after first contact … that’s not a typo, friends; that’s a problem. The Lions’ defense is clearly their weakness, but are we being a little harsh labeling this as a rich man’s version of the Bengals?
Lions’ run defense, 2024:
- Weeks 1-9: 21st in RB yards allowed per carry before first contact
- Weeks 10-17: 10th in RB yards allowed per carry before first contact
Detroit improved its number by 24.6% over that latter stretch (I excluded a weird Week 18 that saw their metrics tank as a result of a conservative game plan due to a big lead — if you think the Lions dominate this game, you’re not rostering Robinson anyway).
For me, there’s serious kill-your-lineup potential if the Lions end up racing out to a big lead. I think those odds are much better than the needed-to-have-Robinson-rostered-to-cash odds. There aren’t many pieces in this game that I’m avoiding, but Washington’s starting running back is one that I am.
David Montgomery, RB | DET (vs. WAS)
David Montgomery (MCL sprain) missed the final three games of the regular season, but there is optimism surrounding his status as Detroit gets its playoff run started.
This is the toughest situation to read of the week. The Lions don’t necessarily need Montgomery (Jahmyr Gibbs scored six times and averaged 5.7 yards per carry in his stead) to function at a high level, but given the various injuries on the defensive side of the ball, the Lions can use all of the offensive help they can get, as sustaining drives might be their best defensive strategy moving forward.
The problem is that we aren’t getting any real discount. Montgomery is priced in the Isiah Pacheco/Brian Robinson Jr. tier, running backs on good offenses with uncertainty around their best-case scenarios this week. At cost, I feel better about him than those two, but this slate very much lines up as a “pay up for two running backs and figure the rest out” sort of situation.
Montgomery has 27 rushing scores in 31 games as a Lion, and a multi-score game could bump all rosters with him toward the top of the leaderboard. That upside is enticing, but we are 430+ days removed from his last 25+ yard touch and saw him check in under fantasy expectations in each of his past three games.
I’m currently going to be light on Montgomery exposure, but should he be cleared and carry a low ownership number, I’ll be pinching pennies to get some Flex exposure, a slot where I currently have upside receivers.
Derrick Henry, RB | BAL (at BUF)
Last Saturday, Derrick Henry became the first player in NFL history to have four games in a season with 130 rushing yards and multiple rushing touchdowns at 30+ years of age. He’s pretty clearly built different, and with 633 rushing yards over his past four games, there are zero signs of him slowing down.
- Weeks 1-11: 37.6% of carries gained 5+ yards (11.7% gained 10+ yards)
- Weeks 12-18: 49.2% of carries gained 5+ yards (17.2% gained 10+ yards)
Henry got his hands on the ball 27 times for 209 yards and a pair of touchdowns in the Week 4 blowout against the Bills. If you think the visitors control this game, there’s a path to The King recapturing that level of upside.
I’m just not a subscriber of that belief.
I see this game being a lower-scoring one than most; if the possession count is limited, I don’t think he’s a good bet to lead the position in scoring this weekend. In Baltimore’s last five games decided by a single score, Henry has averaged 85.6 rush yards. That’s a fine production level and a strong day at the office for most, but you need more than that to ship any contest of value this weekend.
Isiah Pacheco, RB | KC (vs. HOU)
Isiah Pacheco was clearly managed after returning from injury, and that has led to a wide range of potential outcomes this weekend.
- Week 14: 47.7% snap share and 16 touches
- Week 15: 37.3% snap share and 14 touches
- Week 16: 32.9% snap share and 10 touches
- Week 17: 34.5% snap share and six touches
He hasn’t been overly productive when on the field (3.7 yards per carry, no more than one reception in four of his past five), further muddying the waters.
Do you blindly bet on the talent (2022-23: 4.7 yards per carry and a 90.5% catch rate) or automatically fade him based on the usage patterns and the splits from a season ago?
2023 rushing splits:
- Regular season: 25.9% stacked box and 35.1% of carries gained 5+ yards
- Postseason: 30.9% stacked box and 27.2% of carries gained 5+ yards
There’s no way to feel comfortable about this situation after essentially three weeks off, and if that scares you away from this backfield, I get it. That said, I expect that to be a common way to approach this situation, thus funneling lots of ownership to this offense’s pass catchers.
Time to buy.
Whether it is Pacheco or Kareem Hunt, I think we’re getting a pretty discount to take an RB with nice scoring equity and volume potential with extended rest. For me, that lands me on Pacheco, but I’ll admit that this isn’t the most confident slot in my Divisional Round DFS lineup.
Jahmyr Gibbs, RB | DET (vs. WAS)
David Montgomery’s status seems likely to dictate Jahmyr Gibbs’ popularity, and I’m fine with matching the field when it comes to exposure. He was nothing short of great in three games to round out the regular season with his backfield mate sidelined, and it all looks sustainable if he has the featured role to himself again.
The best games over expectation in the second half of 2024 (min. 20 touches):
- Week 12 Saquon Barkley (at LAR): +127.1%
- Week 16 Jonathan Taylor (vs. TEN): +124.1%
- Week 18 Gibbs (vs. MIN): +114.4%
- Week 17 Gibbs (at SF): +77.9%
- Week 9 Derrick Henry (vs. DEN): +77%
The usage driving this production is inside the 20. In those three games, Gibbs averaged six red-zone touches per game more than double his rate through the first 15 weeks (2.9). I’m currently planning on Montgomery playing, and that actually has me more interested as I believe the minor dip in projections would be more than offset by the competition pivoting.
If Montgomery were to be ruled out, I’d expect ownership to come off of Barkley/Henry in Gibbs’ favor — I’d sit tight with my Barkley exposure in that spot.
I’ll let ownership dictate this decision. Nothing about this profile or matchup is concerning to me, it’s simply a matter of three elite options at the position and my desire to get the least popular of the bunch.
James Cook, RB | BUF (vs. BAL)
I don’t know about you, but I break down every game before building out my DFS lineups. and the first step of that process is landing on a general game state. Usually, this means picking a winner and working backward.
If you think the Bills defend their home field, your analysis might not need to go much further. In their past six wins, James Cook has posted an elite 45.3% elusive rating in our custom metric, fueling production that checks in 66.8% over PPR expectation.
Translation: when the game plays in his favor, he’s as good as anyone in the sport.
Due to how things have played out, the position is loaded with options. I expect many to pile onto the three big names (Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, and Jahmyr Gibbs) and then pay down to balance out their salary cap — that could leave us a great buying opportunity.
Cook cleared 100 rushing yards before Josh Allen got to triple figures through the air last week, and while I’m not projecting anything like that this week, I do believe he is the type of player that can come through in a big way, even against a stingy run defense (the Bills ran for just 81 yards on 23 carries in the first meeting), if the ownership price is right.
The rosters with star running backs are going to run low on money quickly and the teams who elect to build around Allen aren’t too likely to pair him with Cook, as the QB-RB construction isn’t a comfortable one due to the lack of a clear path to correlated scoring.
I’m in. All the way.
Heck, if you wanted to get creative and hold the late hammer, putting Allen with Cook is in play. This allows you to have access to a somewhat unique tandem in the final game of the slate, thus giving you the ability to make up ground as the week nears an end. It’s not my favorite build of the week, but I can tell you that I’ll have an Allen-Cook-Isaiah Likely team in my portfolio this weekend.
Joe Mixon, RB | HOU (at KC)
Joe Mixon was managed heading into the postseason (under 15 carries in four straight games), but the Texans went back to the early-season usage patterns and put the ball in the stomach of their RB1 25 times against the Chargers (106 yards, TD).
I think that Houston enters this week with a similar game plan, though I do question its ability to execute for a full 60 minutes as a touchdown underdog. These two teams met in Week 16, and he managed just 57 yards on 14 carries. That’s not an impressive stat line as it is, but what if I told you that he had effectively one good carry?
- Mixon’s splash play: 22 yards with eight coming after contact
- Mixon’s other 13 carries: 35 yards with 39 of them coming after contact
With Mixon approaching 2,300 career touches, forgive me if I’m not confident in a post-contact-rate turnaround in mid-January. He has 13 straight games with multiple red-zone touches and a clear path to work — you’re chasing a touchdown if you go this route, and I’m not in a hurry to bet on the Texans’ offensive environment.
Justice Hill, RB | BAL (at BUF)
Justice Hill got into the end zone last week, and that was great if you had him rostered, but that felt very much like a tail outcome more than one you can bank on. It took the backup back 10 touches to gain 25 yards, a day that disappoints you in a major way if not for Lamar Jackson creating magic on the TD.
If you’re telling me that I need a score from a player who shares a backfield with Derrick Henry, never mind Jackson, I’m going to pass. If you’re planning on saving salary on a player like Hill, you need to lean all the way in.
By rostering Hill, you’re essentially projecting the Bills to put points on the board and make this Baltimore offense one-dimensional. If you need that to be the case to justify playing Hill, don’t you need to stack up members of this Baltimore offense to make that happen?
In my opinion, you can justify playing any eligible player this week, but there are certain ways to do it to maximize your points if the story you’re spinning is accurate. If you play Hill and no Bills, I’m not sure of the game script that can pay off that decision, and that means you’re drawing close to dead before kickoff.
I’m not going this route regardless of Zay Flowers’ status, but another mouth to feed in the passing game would only drag down my ranking for Hill. If you want to pay down at the RB position, I’d recommend going to the least-owned Chiefs back — that said, I’m pinching pennies at the pass-catcher positions instead.
Kareem Hunt, RB | KC (vs. HOU)
This Kansas City backfield is where you need to make a stand. We all like the Chiefs to threaten the red zone consistently in the Divisional Round, and that means we are looking at a cheap source of valuable touches.
Kareem Hunt has worked ahead of Isiah Pacheco since the starter’s return to action, but that best-case scenario has netted him 10.2 touches per game. If that’s the role ceiling we are looking at, I simply can’t get anywhere close to rostering him, especially because I’m more inclined that the recent time off puts Pacheco in a great spot to return to the lead role (I’m penciling him in for 55-60% of the RB touches).
I think most teams are going to cherry-pick a single Chiefs player and be on their way. Choosing right is going to swing plenty of contests given that there are six skill players to choose from (not to mention those who will stack Patrick Mahomes) — I’m more likely than not to select a receiver from this offense, but should I venture to this backfield, I won’t be landing on Hunt.
Kyren Williams, RB | LAR (at PHI)
Kyren Williams is priced as the leader of the second tier at the position on DFS boards this week, a tier that only includes him and Joe Mixon.
I’ll pass on this tier.
Paying up for Saquon Barkley and/or down for Isiah Pacheco are my preferred paths at running back on this slate. Williams’ usage is clearly elite, and that’s not going anywhere. The fact that he has 332 carries in 17 games this season and has multiple receptions in four of his past five is why I’d click his name ahead of Mixon’s if pushed, but I’m not regularly finding myself in this range.
The Eagles aren’t a team I step in front of with running backs. Not only are they a strong run defense (ninth-fewest yards per carry allowed before contact), but their offense can stay on the field, thus limiting their opponent’s rushing attempt total. This season, Williams’ yards per carry after contact are down 18.6% from a season ago, a trend that has me worried about his efficiency in this spot.
We are nearing two months since the last time Williams had a 20-yard gain, and while the volume can elevate his floor, that’s less appealing on a short slate like this than it would be in a normal week. If you think the Rams win this game, it’s because they establish the run and control the scoring — I just don’t think that’s going to be the case.
Ray Davis, RB | BUF (vs. BAL)
Ray Davis is dealing with a concussion, and his status is TBD for this weekend, but his status for your fantasy roster should be very much decided — there’s no need to dig this deep.
Davis exploded in one game as the lead back, but with James Cook healthy and the rookie seemingly hitting something of a wall, there’s not nearly enough meat on this bone to have my interest in any format.
Running backs not named Cook have had little success in this offense outside of that one big performance, and that has me passing on Davis (if he plays) and Ty Johnson (should Davis sit). Buffalo’s starter has proven to be capable of handling a full workload; with the Ravens owning the fifth-best rush defense by EPA, I have zero confidence that a secondary piece in this backfield can make a 5-8-touch role matter for us.
Saquon Barkley, RB | PHI (vs. LAR)
The Saquon Barkley conversation isn’t about his volume or his ability to produce. Those are given. He has as many streaks with 25+ carries and multiple catches as all other NFL running backs this season (two) and would have ranked seventh in the NFL in rushing yards if you only gave him his production in the second half of the season.
The counting numbers are safe, and the fantasy upside is at an elite level — he has multiple red-zone touches in 12 straight games. For me, this is an either/or debate with Derrick Henry.
You are, of course, not obligated to roster either in DFS. Or you could roster both if you want to get really creative, but I expect the vast majority of managers to be faced with this decision and don’t think we need to overcomplicate it.
It’s Barkley.
The matchup is better (the Rams rank 22nd in EPA against the run while the Bills rank second) and the projected game state is more favorable. Those are nice tiebreaker stats to look at, but there is one metric that I’m buying, and it does not require a fancy database to track.
Time of possession. Simply put, I’m more confident that the Eagles can stay on the field than I am the Ravens.
Time of possession, 2024 :
- Eagles: 32:16 (first)
- Ravens: 31:25 (fifth)
- Bills: 30:30 (12th)
- Rams: 29:11 (24th)
The Rams have been the eighth-worst third-down offense and allow the fifth-most yards per carry before contact. In my opinion, there are more ways for the Eagles to stay on the field than for the Ravens, and that moves things in Barkley’s direction. When stacking up ceiling cases for these two, if we are assuming similar volume, Philadelphia’s bellcow has three of the top-four per-touch games of 2024.
Spending Sunday night sweating a Henry fade is not going to be an enjoyable 3-4 hours, but that’s the way I’m playing it when it comes to the pricey RBs.
Divisional Fantasy Football Wide Receivers
A.J. Brown, WR | PHI (vs. LAR)
A.J. Brown was busy stealing headlines by reading a book on the sidelines last week, seemingly bored with the game’s runout. Was he sending a message that the Eagles are good enough to not have to really lock in, even with their season on the line? Was he sending a message to his own team about his lack of involvement?
Brown turned 24 routes into just a single catch against the Packers — his 0.42 yards per route run was the sixth-worst mark of his career. Safe to call that the outlier and not the norm, as this has been his best season in that metric (2.87).
The Rams’ defense has been a weakness this season, though they did show well for themselves on Monday night against the Vikings (Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison turned 16 targets into just 87 yards). Consider me pessimistic that they are going to be able to pin their ears back this week the way they were last, and that has me in on the idea of Brown bouncing back.
Because I think the Eagles can win without a big day from their WR1, Brown checks in as my third-ranked DFS asset among the expensive receivers this week. That doesn’t mean he can’t produce monster numbers, but with Amon-Ra St. Brown and Puka Nacua projecting for safer floors, I’d be more likely to allocate my resources in that direction.
Amari Cooper, WR | BUF (vs. BAL)
If the Bills are slow-playing the unleashing of Amari Cooper, then they are the most patient team in the history of the NFL. Maybe he will be better than he has been up to this point, but it’s going to take a lot more than that for me to invest this week, and I simply cannot get there.
The veteran receiver was on the field for just 34.7% of Buffalo’s snaps last week against the Broncos (eight yards on 13 routes) and has failed to reach 20 routes in all four games during this win streak.
I can’t call Cooper “washed up” because we simply aren’t seeing enough of him to claim that. We caught a glimpse of his potential in the Week 14 shootout with the Rams (247 air yards), but he hasn’t reached 70 air yards in a game since, and there is nothing in his profile that points to an imminent breakout.
Khalil Shakir is the only receiver on this team that I’m remotely interested in, and if forced to choose, I’d take the price discount on Keon Coleman over Cooper at this point.
Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR | DET (vs. WAS)
I’m offended. I’m offended on Amon-Ra St. Brown’s behalf, and he obviously needs the support of a scrawny researcher in the northeast. Who doesn’t?
I’m offended by the “slot merchant” comments from George Pickens that recirculated this past week due to a savvy merchandise deal. I’m offended that he isn’t often in the “best receiver in the sport” conversations that talk shows have every week. I’m offended that he has a good shot at posting the lowest ownership number of the elite receivers on this slate.
I’m offended for him but happy for me and us. If people truly do overthink things and do not click his name with regularity, we get the potential to roster a star while making up ground on the field in doing so.
Washington was able to advance last week, but it wasn’t because of a sterling defensive effort (Baker Mayfield completed 15 of his 18 passes for 185 yards and a pair of touchdowns). The Commanders are a bottom-10 pass defense in opponent passer rating and yards per completion — buckle up!
For the unaware, St. Brown is as consistent as any receiver in the game, and he’s only getting better.
St. Brown’s PPR production relative to expectations by season:
- 3.5% over expectations in 2022
- 16.5% over expectations in 2023
- 24.1% over expectations in 2024
He’s reached double-digit in expected points in 10 straight games and has more end-zone targets this season than he had in the last two combined. The slot role gets looked down at times, and while I don’t think that’s fair, it’s also not all that he does.
St. Brown has six games with multiple deep receptions this year and his efficiency down the field has spiked (40% deep catch rate as a rookie and 63.2% since). I always have some St. Brown exposure, no matter the ownership or matchup data — this week will feature even more investment on my end with both of those boxes projecting to be in our favor.
Cooper Kupp, WR | LAR (at PHI)
Cooper Kupp didn’t earn a first-half target on Monday night, continuing a disturbing trend for the 31-year-old — he’s earned just 10 targets on 87 routes run (five receptions) over his past four games.
I was bullish on him last week, highlighting his production splits against the blitz this regular season.
- Blitzed: 41.4% production over expectation, 2.4 points per target, and 3.8 yards per route
- Not blitzed: 11% production below expectation, 1.5 points per target, and 1.5 yards per route
It didn’t work out. I thought I was smarter than Father Time, and I was wrong. Maybe this is one of those situations I just can’t get right and me being off of him this week is a blessing to those looking to invest, but nothing we’ve seen for over a month now suggests that a vintage performance is coming.
I stand by the blitz angle from above and now he faces the second least aggressive defense in the league (15.4% blitz rate; NFL average: 25.3%). Puka Nacua saw a deep target on the first play last week and was featured in the short passing game.
I’m not counting out Kupp from making a big play or two, but I’m not sure what his path to paying off in a major way is in this spot, especially if the Eagles dictate tempo with their dominant running game.
Curtis Samuel, WR | BUF (vs. BAL)
Curtis Samuel scored from 55 yards out last week to ice a game that was all but over anyway, frustrating those of us who were heavy on our Keon Coleman exposure. The splash play was nice to see, but it’s far from the norm for a player with this profile; with him running just 16 routes, I’m not entering this weekend with the intent to chase the production I missed out on last week.
Consider this: Samuel’s usage last week carried an expected PPR total of 4.9 points. That number checked in below his regular season expected average (5.9), and was there any point in which you were looking his way with confidence in your annual league?
I know there wasn’t such a moment for me.
The impact of Samuel’s big play last week is that it further muddies Buffalo’s target waters. Like most, I love this offense, but I’m having a hard time wedging any pass catcher into my DFS lineups. Dalton Kincaid is the pass catcher I’m landing on most often, and even that isn’t in an overweight manner.
It’s scary, but I’ll be watching Buffalo’s offense this week without much in the way of fantasy exposure, hoping to hold onto whatever lead I’ve built up beforehand. Yes, it’s uncomfortable, but I think it’s the right way to play a game on which I’m betting the under.
DeAndre Hopkins, WR | KC (vs. HOU)
The Chiefs have yet to really extend DeAndre Hopkins (he’s topped out at a 63.1% snap share and has been held under 50% in three straight before resting in Week 18). Are they saving him or are they picking their spots?
For the longest time, I thought the former, but I’m coming around to the latter, and that has me passing on him. From Mike Williams to Amari Cooper, we’ve seen mid-season WR trades net little in terms of on-field production (don’t get me started on Diontae Johnson); while Hopkins is more involved than those two, the theme of the deadline seems to have been more spot performers than game-changers.
Xavier Worthy’s role is expanding every week and Hollywood Brown has been earning opportunities at an elite rate since returning to action. I think there’s a good chance this game is reasonably close, but we do have to take into account the possibility for the Chiefs to control things. NFL teams this season dropped back to pass 51.7% of the time when leading compared to 65.8% when trailing.
Patrick Mahomes has averaged 40 pass attempts per game since Thanksgiving, and that level of volume hasn’t been enough to support Hopkins. Sportsbooks have his number posted at 37.5 passes this weekend — why would we expect his production to spike now?
DeVonta Smith, WR | PHI (vs. LAR)
I like a lot of secondary receivers this weekend. I’m talking myself into John Metchie III in Houston, will be overexposed to Jameson Williams in Detroit, and think there are some interesting angles to take in the Ravens/Bills game.
DeVonta Smith isn’t on that list.
He is coming off his lowest target rate since Week 10 (fourth-lowest of the season) and wasn’t a focal point from the jump (one target on 15 first-half routes). I could overlook a low-usage game (though, six games without a single red-zone look are concerning), but I can’t shake the “How?” behind the low target count.
Last week against the Packers, Smith earned one look on 10 pressured Jalen Hurts dropbacks (three on 13 non-pressured dropbacks), struggles that very much line up with what we saw for four months during the regular season:
- When pressured: 11.8% target route
- When not: 30% target rate
The Rams are going to need to ugly this game up and create chaos. They entered their playoff opener against the Vikings with a similar desire, and it resulted in them creating pressure on 48% of Sam Darnold dropbacks, their highest rate of the season.
They’ve excelled at creating pressure when they decide to focus on that (their four highest-pressure games this season came against the Vikings and 49ers, matchups that they clearly identified as advantageous spots), and that is what I’m projecting to be the plan as a significant underdog.
It’s A.J. Brown or nothing for me through the air for the Eagles, but it’ll be more Saquon Barkley than anything.
Dyami Brown, WR | WAS (at DET)
Dyami Brown proved to be a cheat code last round, and now he’s in a spot as a significant underdog on a fast track.
For me, this isn’t the right way to build a roster.
Chasing the points from last week will be something more than a few people do this weekend due to recency bias and the desire to roster the big-name star players as a result of the salary savings.
Brown’s snap shares, 2024:
- Weeks 13-18: 61.1%
- Weeks 6-12: 32.5%
The playing time is encouraging, and the door is open for the secondary role in this offense next to Terry McLaurin, so there is a case to be made if you want to talk yourself into it.
It’s not for me. Even in this strong performance (89 yards and a touchdown), Brown was targeted once on 12 first-half routes. He overachieved at concerningly high levels — he caught 100% of his targets (all other Commanders: 63.3%) and made the most of 8.9 expected points. During Weeks 13-18, he averaged 6.7 PPG with a 7.6 expected number.
I’d rather go down the depth chart in Buffalo when it comes to receivers or roll the dice on John Metchie III’s growing role in Houston than bet on Brown paying off at an ownership percentage that I expect to be too high.
Hollywood Brown, WR | KC (vs. HOU)
I’m as guilty as anyone when it comes to overthinking lineup decisions and roster constructions — even I think the path to clicking Hollywood Brown’s name is pretty straightforward.
In his two games this season, he’s been targeted on 15 of 34 routes. Brown got a taste of NFL action and has had time for his body to recover — could he be the freshest player not only on the field on Saturday but in the sport this weekend?
The Texans’ blitz rate was above their season baseline last week and has been a consistent strategy when facing playoff-level competition. If that’s the case and they are hyper-focused on making life difficult for Travis Kelce off the line of scrimmage, that puts Brown in a lot of single coverage spots where we’ve seen him win in the past.
Given the spread and everything we’ve seen from the Chiefs this season, a low-octane approach is possible, and that would put you in a tough spot due to the number of similar receivers on this roster. That said, at some point, you’re going to have to throw caution to the wind; if you’re telling me I have to do that, a Patrick Mahomes/Andy Reid team off the rare double bye has my attention.
Jameson Williams, WR | DET (vs. WAS)
It’s a little eerie that both top seeds have a speed demon trending in the right direction, but here we are. Jameson Williams has certainly had his ups and downs up to this point in his career, but it would appear that he has earned the trust of his teammates, and that comes with extreme upside that you need to at least consider when building out lineups for this weekend.
Williams’ usage rates, 2024:
- Weeks 13-18: 22.4% target rate (10.5 aDOT)
- Weeks 1-12: 15.9% target rate (14.3 aDOT)
Williams can fly. He’s as fast as anyone in the league, that much we know. Speed doesn’t slump, but it doesn’t always pay off. The Lions clearly value their third-year receiver as much more than a one-trick pony, and that’s been obvious from the declining aDOT mentioned above.
That’s obviously great for his floor, and with access to plenty of upside in this spot, he’s worthy of your consideration. The Commanders have been better of late, but if Marshon Lattimore opposes Amon-Ra St. Brown with regularity, I think it’s a good bet that Jared Goff will take multiple deep shots to Williams against a Washington defense that allowed long touchdown passes at the seventh-highest rate.
Detroit is likely to be the most popular team in terms of ownership, so be careful in how much of this game you use, but I think allocating some lineups with a pro-Williams stance is the responsible move.
John Metchie III, WR | HOU (at KC)
You can choose to build a well-balanced lineup this weekend and create a perfectly competitive group. No problem, move on.
But if that’s not your speed, there are some punt plays that open the door to spending big on a few stars, and that might well be the optimal way to go. John Metchie III lost a fumble last week, but he tied for the team lead in targets during the Wild Card win over the Chargers, continuing a trend of his increased involvement in this post-Tank Dell world that Houston is operating in.
- Weeks 15-18: targeted on 23.2% of routes
- Weeks 1-14: targeted on 12.2% of routes
The Texans rank sixth in pass rate over expectation this season and, based on the 7.5-point opening spread, the expectation is for them to be in a passing script.
By no means am I expecting Metchie to be Houston’s most productive receiver, but we have seen four secondary WRs produce as WR1s against the Chiefs this season (Tank Dell led Houston receivers in points in the first meeting, David Moore was Carolina’s top fantasy WR when facing the Chiefs, Marvin Mims Jr. paced the Broncos, and Rashid Shaheed was the optimal piece over Chris Olave).
Rostering Metchie has less to do with your optimism in his raw projection and more to do with what the savings allow you to do. Here is a contrarian lineup I’ve entered as an example:
DraftKings GPP Option:
QB: Josh Allen (vs. BAL)
RB: Saquon Barkley (vs. LAR)
RB: James Cook (vs. BAL)
WR: Terry McLaurin (at DET)
WR: Jameson Williams (vs.WAS)
WR: Hollywood Brown (vs. HOU)
TE: Isaiah Likely (at BUF)
FLEX: John Metchie III (at KC)
D/ST: Eagles (vs. LAR)
With this game being the first of the week, hitting on a Metchie call gives you roster optionality while there are late-swap strategic moves to make depending on your contest.
JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR | KC (vs. HOU)
Anything is possible now that we’ve given Andy Reid three weeks to cook up an offensive plan; in that vein, if you wanted to differentiate in a major way, I guess JuJu Smith-Schuster is a way to do so.
Outside of being contrarian for the sake of being contrarian, this profile is beyond thin. In fact, the only reason he is in this article is because of the team he plays for. He’s managed to catch just nine balls for 84 yards on 172 routes since lighting up the Saints for 130 yards in Week 5 – asking him to get to even five PPR points feels like an unreasonable ask.
I’m not overly confident in this offense’s target hierarchy (I lean toward Travis Kelce and Hollywood Brown being the leaders with Xavier Worthy and DeAndre Hopkins not far behind), but I’m comfortable saying that Smith-Schuster is, at best, fifth — that’s not a role I’d invest my hard earned dollars in even if we had Patrick Mahomes in video-game-number-producing form.
Keon Coleman, WR | BUF (vs. BAL)
It’s been a month since Keon Coleman last picked up a yard per route for a game, and he has just one red-zone touch on his résumé since the beginning of November. You’re well within your right to like the trajectory of this rookie in a Josh Allen-led offense, but proceeding with optimism in the short term is unwise.
Yes, he was the target of one of Allen’s few misses over the weekend, but with a declining snap share (58.3% on Sunday, down from 73.3% during the regular season), his opportunity count simply doesn’t project well.
With an athlete like this, there is always the concern that a single catch makes his day profitable (season: 15.4 aDOT), but the path to success isn’t clear considering that there are more than a few players on this roster capable of making big plays. Against Denver last week, Khalil Shakir was the only Bill who did not see the majority of his receiving yards on a single reception.
In theory, this looks like a matchup where you might be inclined to take a flier on a volatile receiver like this. The Ravens have the type of offense that can push the Bills and rank 26th in opponent deep-completion percentage. On the surface, that looks like a nice profile, but Baltimore has the run game to limit the possession count — while their season-long pass defense numbers paint them as vulnerable, I’d be careful:
Ravens’ deep completion percentage allowed, 2024:
- Weeks 1-9: 57.5% completion rate
- Since: 37.1% completion rate
Coleman was unable to produce last week in a game where Amari Cooper and the backfield as a whole combined for four targets. Even if you think Allen is in the mid-30s in pass attempts, the risk that comes with an unproven Coleman is greater than the reward.
Khalil Shakir, WR | BUF (vs. BAL)
Just about everything went right for the Bills last weekend against the overmatched Broncos, and Khalil Shakir’s return to the king of efficiency was on that list. After a bizarre stretch, he hauled in all six looks from Josh Allen for 61 yards.
- Weeks 1-9: 93.3% catch rate
- Weeks 10-17: 61.8% catch rate
It’s always important to listen to what NFL teams are telling you, but especially so at this time of year. Shakir totaled just 11 air yards in Sunday’s win, a clear sign that Buffalo valued getting him on track, a good sign for PPR managers.
Or is it?
Their desire to get him involved on quick looks took him out of the slot too often for my liking (52.6% slot rate last week, down from 70.4% during the regular season), especially in this spot. While Baltimore’s pass defense has had its struggles, they allow the second-fewest YAC to the slot this season, giving me little confidence that his ceiling this week is much ahead of what we saw in the Wild Card Round.
In some builds, that might be enough, but this game rewards those who play the odds. I’m not sure this is the path I’m taking on a short slate. With just three end-zone targets to his name this year, you’re relying on elite volume to get you home, something that has become less likely in the past few months as Josh Allen has begun to spread the ball around at a high rate.
Nico Collins, WR | HOU (at KC)
If you talk yourself out of Nico Collins exposure, you’re doing it wrong. I’m not talking about DFS for the Divisional Round — I’m talking about fantasy football as a whole. There’s no bad time to play Houston’s star, it really is that simple.
Last week, he posted a 7-122-1 stat line against the Chargers in what was a tough matchup on paper. And it was a tough spot — none of his teammates reached 35 receiving yards — but some players project well no matter who is standing across from them. Collins’ name is certainly on that list.
In Weeks 1-10, the average touchdown pass against the Chiefs was under 15 yards. Since then, it’s been north of 18. If the Texans are going to make this a game, Collins will need to be targeted early and often.
A.J. Brown, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Terry McLaurin are all WR1s in better matchups that have a chance to garner more ownership this week; I like all of those receivers plenty, but if rostering them means I’m underweight on the field on a player like Collins, I’m not doing it.
Puka Nacua, WR | LAR (at PHI)
That’s football.
Puka Nacua saw 34.6% of the targets in a game in which the Rams scored 27 points and Matthew Stafford posted his fifth-best QB+ of the year. The first play of the game was a 27-yard deep shot to Nacua that was clearly scripted and set the tone.
If you told me pre-game that all of that was going to happen, I would have had 100% exposure and felt as if I didn’t have enough.
But it didn’t happen. Los Angeles dominated from the jump, had a defensive touchdown, and only had six targeted passes in the second half. Nacua wasn’t overly efficient with his targets (1.04 PPR points per look, his second-lowest mark of the season), but that was as much the product of a conservative script as anything (after that first pass, his eight targets totaled nine air yards).
The opposite game flow came to light in Week 12 when Nacua and Co. hosted the Eagles (37-20 loss), fueling a 9-117-0 stat line (he and Cooper Kupp accounted for 70.8% of Stafford’s completions in a very concentrated attack). I don’t think the Rams get run out of the building quite like that this time around, but as a six-point underdog, I’ve got this projected script closer to the regular season meeting than what we saw versus Minnesota.
With Kupp struggling, Nacua is as good a bet as anyone to lead this slate in targets, and given everything that we’ve seen from him (90 receiving yards per game for his career), that means you have to at least consider paying up for him.
Sure, Philadelphia’s defense is playing as well as they have all season long and isn’t one I’m going out of my way to target, but you have to pick your spots this week. If ownership at the top of the WR board gathers in the Washington/Detroit game, you may get a nice little discount here.
Sold!
Rashod Bateman, WR | BAL (at BUF)
Rashod Bateman scored to cap off Baltimore’s first drive last week against the Steelers, giving him five scores in his past five games and once again returning reasonable value for anyone daring enough to trust him.
I just can’t get there.
Outside of the touchdown, Bateman had one target to show for his Wild Card Weekend, and it came in a two-minute setting. He has posted a single-digit target rate four times this season (seven games under 12%), a floor that is too low for me in most situations.
That said, you can’t blindly rule out anyone in a four-game slate. I expect some ownership going in his direction due to this game’s shootout potential, and that is what worries me.
I’m not nearly confident enough in him to overcome him being popular. If we get word that Zay Flowers is going to return to action and, as a result, ownership shifts off of Bateman, that is the instance where I could see myself biting — I’m otherwise not all that interested.
Robert Woods, WR | HOU (at KC)
We went the entire 2024 calendar year without seeing Robert Woods reach 45 receiving yards in a game, and I’m not sure that 2025 brings much more in the way of production for the wily veteran.
There was a moment there where Bobby Trees looked poised to hold low-end PPR value following Tank Dell’s injury, but that moment has left. Woods has seen a red-zone target in just three of his past 16 games, and with his volume being a fleeting dream, his primary path is stumbling into a score, something his usage patterns don’t suggest is the least bit likely.
Terry McLaurin, WR | WAS (at DET)
If you extrapolate Terry McLaurin’s last seven games for a 17-game season:
100 receptions (143 targets)
1,127 yards
19 touchdowns
329.1 PPR fantasy points
That would have been good for WR2 honors this season, checking in behind only Ja’Marr Chase and his triple crown. We’ve long admired McLaurin’s precise route running and are now seeing him produce at the levels that we’ve thought possible since he entered the league now that he has above-average QB play.
Receivers with attention to detail have been the ones responsible for lighting up the Lions this season: Cooper Kupp hung 32 points on them in Week 1 and Chris Godwin produced 24.7 points the next week, a production level that came against a Detroit defense that was at full strength.
That’s obviously not the case these days, and that only magnifies this flaw — Keenan Allen cleared 24 points in two meetings over the final five weeks of the regular season, racking up 214 yards and three scores on 21 targets across those games.
A Lions stack with a McLaurin bring-back is going to be an awfully common build this weekend on the full-game slate. That doesn’t make it wrong, but it should be considered if you are going in that direction as you’re going to have to get creative elsewhere.
In this type of build, you may roll the dice in an uncomfortable spot. Maybe pay up for a defense, thus putting you in a different price range for your Flex option than the others with this core.
Tim Patrick, WR | DET (vs. WAS)
The idea of Tim Patrick made sense early in December when he saw 7+ targets in consecutive games for maybe the NFL’s best offense, but those days are pretty clearly behind us.
With Jameson Williams functioning as a full-time threat, Sam LaPorta rediscovering his form, and Jahmyr Gibbs’ production hitting a fever pitch, there just isn’t any meat left on the bone for Patrick.
In Week 18’s win over the Vikings, Patrick saw a 6.3% target share. That number could rise, but I’m not sure it has a meaningful ceiling — Amon-Ra St. Brown, Williams, and LaPorta saw 68.8% of Jared Goff’s targets in that game, a usage rate I expect to sustain as the Lions embark on their run for a title.
Xavier Worthy, WR | KC (vs. HOU)
In Week 17, Xavier Worthy joined Saquon Barkley as the only rookie in NFL history with nine targets and multiple rush attempts in three straight games. Not bad company, and a clear sign that Andy Reid is getting a handle on the chess pieces at his disposal.
Worthy’s usage rate, Weeks 15-17:
- More targets than Mike Evans
- More catches than A.J. Brown
- More TD catches than Puka Nacua and Brown combined
Included in that run was a strong Week 16 showing against these Texans (7-65-1 on 11 targets), a stat line that was one of the nine 20-point performances by a receiver against Houston this season.
That list is an eclectic one, housing names from Alec Pierce to DeMario Douglas, and that is why Worthy’s upside is intoxicating in this spot. Not only has Reid essentially had three full weeks to scheme, but he faces a defense that has shown vulnerability in a variety of spots.
A Mahomes/Worthy stack is certainly viable, though I think a Worthy single play might be optimal — if he connects on a bomb or two, what’s to prevent the Chiefs from operating in a more conservative plan that limits Mahomes’ overall volume?
Zay Flowers, WR | BAL (at BUF)
News broke late last week that Zay Flowers (knee) would miss the Wild Card game against the Steelers and would have “a chance” to play should Baltimore advance. We’ve yet to really get much in the way of optimism regarding his status for this week, but let’s operate under the assumption that he is cleared for action mid-week and enters the weekend set to play (if he sits, you don’t need my dancing numbers to tell you to pass).
Flowers’ aDOT is up this season from last, something that was expected with defenses getting closer to the line of scrimmage to get in Derrick Henry’s way, but his downfield production has fallen off a cliff.
Flowers’ deep-target production, 2023:
- 54.8% catch rate
- 2.80 PPR points per target
- 31.1 yards per catch
Flowers’ deep-target production, 2024:
- 46.3% catch rate
- 1.95 PPR points per target
- 25.8 yards per catch
It’s funny — Flowers’ counting numbers look better this year than last, but I enjoyed rostering the consistent version of him in 2023 more than the rollercoaster edition we’ve seen for the past four months (five games with 100+ yards but multiple six-game scoreless streaks and eight weeks under 40 receiving yards).
His aDOT and YAC numbers are both up from his rookie year, résumé builders that will have me investing in September, but his compromised status while facing a defense tailored to stopping his profile (11th in YAC allowed to receivers and sixth-fewest yards surrendered per deep completion) have me uninvested across the board.
Divisional Fantasy Football Tight Ends
Dalton Kincaid, TE | BUF (vs. BAL)
I might be one of the few people yet to sell their Dalton Kincaid stock, and even I am beginning to get nervous. Driving my optimism around the second-year tight end was the idea that he could establish himself as essentially the WR2 in this offense.
That might not be wrong, but it’s certainly not clearly right. The Bills are using a pass-catcher rotation that is good for keeping defenses guessing but bad for our ability to roster any of them confidently.
Bills pass catchers’ route counts vs. Broncos:
- Khalil Shakir: 23
- Kincaid: 21
- Mack Hollins: 17
- Curtis Samuel: 16
- Keon Coleman: 16
- Dawson Knox: 15
- Amari Cooper: 13
His ranking second on that list is, on its face, good to see, though with the numbers that tightly packed, it’s hard to have a good feel for this rotation. He picked up a pair of targets on four routes in the middle of the first quarter on Sunday, but he earned just a single target on his 17 routes after that, a usage floor that is very much in play this week.
If the surrounding talent soaks up the majority of the ownership, maybe I can talk myself into Kincaid. He did, after all, lead the Bills in catches (five) and targets (seven) in the Week 4 loss to these Ravens.
We are going to be asked to take some risks this week, and the second game on both days (this one and Washington/Detroit) is where I’ll be doing it. If you wanted to single-stack Josh Allen with Kincaid as part of a Derrick Henry lineup that saw you use cheap pass-catchers in that Commanders/Lions game, I wouldn’t fault you.
Dalton Schultz, TE | HOU (at KC)
I was very anti-Texans last week, and I was wrong.
I’ll take a similar stance this week against a rested Chiefs team. That means I’m not pinching pennies with Dalton Schultz.
Houston’s tight end hasn’t cleared 45 receiving yards in five straight games, and his end-zone look last week against the Chargers was more an anomaly than anything (held without such a target in 15 of 17 games this regular season).
I expect box score watchers to land on Schultz at a discount thanks to his 5-45-1 line in this matchup (Week 16), but I’d rather fade the larger sample size that has seen Schultz post a career low in yards per route run.
In that first meeting, Nico Collins, Tank Dell, and Schultz accounted for 83.2% of Houston’s receiving yards. I think there is production to find next to Collins with Dell sidelined, I just have no confidence that Schultz will pick up that usage — that means I can get cheap WR targets elsewhere if I want exposure to this offense in a comeback spot.
Dallas Goedert, TE | PHI (vs. LAR)
Dallas Goedert’s stiff arm last week against the Packers will be on highlight films for years to come, and while the single play stands out, his earning six targets on just 18 routes is what has my interest.
This is a matchup in which the Eagles should be able to score; that means you could justify going in this direction, but I’m just not joining you. It’s easy to look at him seeing one-third of the targets last week, but should we view that as predictive?
- A.J. Brown had one catch
- DeVonta Smith has an 87.1% catch rate over the past month
- Saquon Barkley had four receiving yards
- Grant Calcaterra posted a 54.4% snap share
With Smith trending up, Calcaterra getting field time, and the Brown/Barkley tandem recording floor performances, last week feels much more like a ceiling than anything we can expect to sustain. Barkley had four more rushes than Jalen Hurts had pass attempts; if you like the Eagles to control this game like they did against the Packers last week, the volume is too risky to have me interested, even after a strong performance.
Dawson Knox, TE | BUF (vs. BAL)
We see a lot of offenses that come without much of a role for their tight end, but the remaining eight teams all can carve looks out for their TE1; that means I’m not venturing down to Dawson Knox.
The Bills can score with the best of them, and Dalton Kincaid’s lack of counting numbers could generate some interest in Knox, but that’s too thin for my liking. He hasn’t seen more than three targets in six straight games and has seen his snap share tick down to 54.7% over his past three (season: 60.5%).
I remain intrigued by Kincaid, and with his success in the first matchup, that’s the direction I’m going if I have to pick a pass catcher in Buffalo.
Isaiah Likely, TE | BAL (at BUF)
Isaiah Likely’s profile is maddening. The physical tools are evident, but he’s run fewer than 20 routes in four of his past five games, thus keeping his floor lower than I believe it should be given this offense’s potency.
That said, this is still a player I’m in on, and I think this quietly could be an advantageous spot.
As mentioned, Buffalo was able to regularly send heat at Bo Nix over the weekend, something that I’m reading much more as a damnation of the rookie QB than anything we need to adjust to. The Bills entered the postseason holding the lowest pressure rate of playoff teams, and I think that sticks into a matchup against a veteran QB with a versatile run game.
Likely’s target rates, 2024:
- When Lamar Jackson is pressured: 11.4%
- When Lamar Jackson is not pressured: 21.6%
We saw RBs/TEs account for two-thirds of Jackson’s targets in the first game against these Bills, and I think the home team forces him to do something similar this time around. If that train of thought comes through, we are talking about a walking mismatch who averages 2.2 PPR points per target this season, a rate greater than Sam LaPorta and Jonnu Smith.
We got a discount in ownership and price tag when comparing Likely to Mark Andrews — I label both of them as TD-reliant options in an offense I trust, so give me the one that gives me the edge over my competition and opens up more spending options at the receiver position.
Mark Andrews, TE | BAL (at BUF)
What Mark Andrews is, is no secret — it’s identifying him as such that the public is having a hard time doing.
Early in the season, the sentiment was that he was “washed” and done being a fantasy asset.
Late in the season, the sentiment shifted to him returning to the peak of his powers and a strong weekly option that must be trusted.
Culture today encourages us to take strong stands and only strong stands. From coaches’ fourth-down play-calling to politicians to diets, our culture tells us that you’re either all in on a cause or all out with no middle ground.
There’s a time and place for strong stands (I made plenty of them in this article), but not all situations are created equal. In Andrews’ case, isn’t it possible that he’s just ordinary? That he, like so many players at the position, essentially is a glorified anytime-touchdown bet?
Andrews’ fantasy production since Week 12:
- PPR points via TDs: 47.3
- PPR points otherwise: 46.8
During the regular season, Isaiah Likely scored 40.8% of his points via touchdown receptions, essentially occupying a similar role on an offense that wants to run the ball but at a fraction of the price and ownership.
There is no question that you’re going to have to think outside of the box to win good money this weekend, that’s just the nature of short slates. I think the Ravens are built to hang a big number on the Bills, and that won’t be a unique take, but I think the ownership is going to pile up for Derrick Henry.
The King can have his moments, but if we successfully chase a touchdown from the tight end position in Baltimore, that takes food off Henry’s plate and gives us a leverage spot. Buffalo has average red-zone numbers for the season as a whole, but their recent struggles have me thinking that they stack the box to force the Ravens to score less comfortably.
Bills’ red-zone defense, 2024:
- Weeks 1-9: 46.9% TD rate
- Since: 66.7% TD rate
I’m going to vary my exposure, but I’m going to be picking that Buffalo scab with a Baltimore pass catcher in most of them. My initial lean is to rely on ownership to drive where I go with my first click, and I anticipate the difference in roster popularity to be greater than the difference in my mean projections at the tight end position.
Roster Andrews if you want to stay level with the field and try to win elsewhere. Roster Likely if you want to roster chalky RB/WR and need some cheap leverage.
Sam LaPorta, TE | DET (vs. WAS)
Here comes Samta Claus? LaPorta Power?
The nickname and/or lifestyle needs a better label — I’ve got you started, and I’m sure you’re more creative than I am — but it’s the sentiment that you need to note.
Last season, we got a late TD hat trick from Detroit’s standout TE, and he hauled in nine passes in consecutive playoff games (the third tight end to ever do that). This season, he’s seen at least six targets in eight straight games and is putting together pace numbers that look awfully familiar.
Sam LaPorta’s receiving production:
- Weeks 13-18, 17-game pace: 91 catches for 967 yards and 11 TDs
- 2023 season (17 games): 86 catches for 889 yards and 10 TDs
The Lions are going to be an awfully popular team given that the opening lines had them projected to clear 30 points. If you’re buying LaPorta this week, you’re going to have to get creative with your roster construction.
The unique way to roster this chalky piece would be to do it as a one-off and not stack him with any of his teammates. That’s a little aggressive for me, but I do think there are smarter ways to go about building a Lions-centric lineup than others.
LaPorta’s aDOT has dipped in the three games since David Montgomery went down, and it’s made him more efficient.
- Weeks 16-18: 6.4 aDOT with a 77.3% catch rate
- Weeks 1-15: 8.4 aDOT with a 70.5% catch rate
If you think Montgomery sits and/or is limited, to me, you’re saying that LaPorta fills the short-passing role. If that’s the case, stacking up Jared Goff and Jameson Williams with him is a logical way to bet on Detroit while still being different to a degree by passing on Amon-Ra St. Brown.
If you think Montgomery will be a full-go, you’re moving LaPorta more down the field. That opens up short looks you can distribute to either St. Brown or someone else (pick your favorite Detroit RB). There are going to be plenty of lineups with 2-3 Lions this weekend and that makes sense — if you leave out St. Brown, you take on plenty of risk, but you differentiate yourself from the field and will save enough money to pay up elsewhere.
Travis Kelce, TE | KC (vs. HOU)
The tight end player pool this weekend is muddied and could have any one of a handful of options lead the position in scoring. Does that make it the time to buy Travis Kelce?
Or is it the perfect time to continue the fade?
This looks like a payup to be a different spot in my eyes. The Texans are a bottom-10 pass defense in most metrics, highlighted by a top-five grade in touchdown rate, air yards per throw, and YAC.
In other words, they struggle in every spot where Kelce can burn them.
The usage of Hollywood Brown is concerning, the growth of Xavier Worthy needs to be tracked, and we can’t count on DeAndre Hopkins — but we KNOW that Patrick Mahomes is comfortable with Kelce in this exact situation.
- Decembers in 2022-23 (nine games): 5.2 catches, 71.2% catch rate, 66.3 yards, and zero TDs
- Playoffs 2022-23 (seven games): 8.4 catches, 86.8% catch rate, 87.4 yards, and seven TDs
We got a taste of playoff Kelce in Week 17 against the Steelers (8-84-1 on a 28.9% target share) before being rested in Week 18. There are narratives, patterns, and trends. Kelce checks all of the boxes, and you might get one of the most clutch performers to ever do it at an ownership discount.
From a game theory point of view, Kelce makes for an interesting one-off option. DFS fields are going to be crowded with Chiefs supporters and faders, but threading the needle of getting the right exposure might well prove to be the optimal strategy.
Zach Ertz, TE | WAS (at DET)
We embraced a low floor from Zach Ertz this regular season (only four TEs had more games with at least seven PPR points during the regular season than Washington’s veteran), and that paid off during the second half of the season.
The playoffs are a different beast, however, and Ertz didn’t perform well for you if you had exposure on the Wild Card slate (2-23-0). It’s not the low-level stat line that worries me — even the best tight ends have duds on their 2024 résumés — it’s how it occurred.
Production on short passes, 2024 regular season:
- Terry McLaurin: 289 routes, 57 targets
- Ertz: 282 routes, 62 targets
Production on short passes, 2024 Wild Card Round:
- McLaurin: 24 routes, seven targets
- Ertz: 23 routes, three targets
The role where Ertz was option 1A during the regular season was McLaurin’s with a bullet on Sunday night; if that sustains, we have another disappointing performance coming for a player who struggles to earn looks as it is (sub-14.5% on-field target share in four of his past five games).
If you believe that the Commanders attack the Lions like most teams, and that’s underneath (DET: second lowest aDOT against this regular season), you need Ertz to return to top priority in that regard.
Can he?
I’m not so sure. McLaurin is obviously well-suited to earn looks in the short passing game and is more explosive after the catch. For me, betting on Ertz is a bet against Dyami Brown. I think he’s a fine play if he can return to the secondary option in this offense — especially considering Detroit could opt for a conservative defense to highlight Daniels as a short passer rather than a field stretch.
Ertz has run at least 30 routes in seven of his past nine games — he’s going to be on the field plenty, and in a game that is likely to feature a passing script, I could see myself warming to him as the week goes on if the ownership projections aren’t overwhelming.