This game of ours is one of very little separation, and that makes every decision critical. As much as I’d love to help every one of you with your specific questions (I’ll try — @KyleSoppePFN), that’s a big ask.
What I can give you, every single week, are my takes. My statistically backed rankings are available, but you, the devoted fantasy manager, need more than simply a number next to a name. You need to know why I stand where I do, and that’s my goal with this novel.
If you have a question, hit me up on Twitter, but my hope is that this extended piece will give you the insight you’re looking for without relying on me landing on your specific question before lineups lock.
You don’t have to get ready if you stay ready — this piece, is me staying ready to help you win the week!
Looking to make a trade in your fantasy league? Having trouble deciding who to start and who to sit? Setting DFS lineups? Check out PFN’s Free Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer, Start/Sit Optimizer, and DFS Lineup Optimizer to help you make the right decision!
Conference Championship Fantasy Football Quarterbacks
Jalen Hurts, QB | PHI (vs. WAS)
Jalen Hurts has a passing upside in his profile, we just haven’t seen it up to this point in the playoffs. His yards per pass attempt are down from 8.0 during the regular season to 6.3, and if that two-game trend doesn’t correct itself, it’s going to be a tough week in the DFS streets for your humble narrator.
The Commanders have blitzed on under 22% of opposing dropbacks four times this season. Two of those instances have come this postseason. I expect a sit-back-and-wait approach to open this game, not only because it’s what we’ve seen this defense do recently with their season on the line but also in fear of Saquon Barkley making one cut and breaking the game open.
In the Week 11 win over these Commanders, Hurts completed 16-of-21 non-pressured passes, and he’s been even better in those spots during the playoffs (24-of-30 with two touchdowns).
Hurts’ 44-yard TD in the Divisional Round was the fourth longest by a QB in postseason history and he has now run for 29+ yards in 11 straight games (T-9th longest streak by a QB, the second longest streak of his career). If you’re like me and take the rushing production for granted, those passing efficiency numbers and how they stand to translate in this specific spot should have you drooling.
There’s a knee injury to navigate here, but that might only further buy us an ownership discount. You must stay updated with the most recent reports around this situation, but I expect to have a pretty clear picture sooner rather than later given the magnifying glass that is shined on every team this time of year.
In a week where QB upside isn’t hard to find, I have Hurts penciled into my primary lineup.
Jayden Daniels, QB | WAS (at PHI)
I went to a well-respected high school in Upstate New York, attended a college that made the CFP Final Four this season, and married into a family that has four Master’s degrees.
I’ve absorbed a lot of knowledge over the years and — well, I’m running out of words to describe what it is that Jayden Daniels is doing.
Last week, he became the first player in NFL history with two touchdowns and 12 rush attempts without an interception in consecutive games (regular or postseason). His legs are what inspire the most fear (15+ yard run in five of his past six games), but we are talking about a true dual threat (35+ yard completion in four of his past five) who is playing with house money.
Daniels is deserving of elite status when it comes to our game and he’s going to have to be at his very best to compete this week. The Eagles slowed him down to a degree in the most recent meeting (6.0 yards per pass with a touchdown and an interception), but his growth has been exponential ever since. Subsequently, I’m not putting much weight into the value of that data point.
In seven full games since that dud, Daniels is seven-for-seven in terms of multi-TD pass games and I like his chances to extend that. When it comes to evaluating his upside, I think you have to tell a story regarding this matchup.
Philadelphia is the fourth-best defense at creating pressure without blitzing. Washington is a touch better than average when it comes to preventing such pressure. That is the matchup I’m using to determine my exposure levels.
During the postseason, Daniels’ yards per pocket pass attempt is up 25.7% from what he produced during the regular season. If he’s comfortable back there, he has a real chance to be the top producer this weekend.
He’s not currently a part of my primary lineup for one reason — Philadelphia’s tackling. This season, they allow the second-fewest yards per catch after the reception (4.7, 11.3% better than the league average). With Daniels’ average air yards down 23% during the postseason, I fear that staying ahead of the chains may be more difficult this week than it has been recently for this Washington offense.
Remember, we are splitting hairs at the highest of levels this week. I’m not out of the idea of Daniels in this big spot, I just prefer his opposing number.
Josh Allen, QB | BUF (at KC)
Five times has a QB had four games in a season (playoffs included) with multiple rush touchdowns and 20 pass attempts.
- 2021 Jalen Hurts
- 2022 Jalen Hurts
- 2023 Jalen Hurts
- 2023 Josh Allen
- 2024 Josh Allen
No player has had five such games in a single season and you are crazy if you think that’s not within the range of outcomes for Allen this weekend. After having three games with a 72% completion rate during the regular season, QB1 has shown tremendous maturity this postseason and has hit that mark in both games as his growth continues.
While Buffalo’s success over the Chiefs in these big spots has been limited, Allen hasn’t been the issue. That’s all we care about. In Week 11, he threw 40 passes in addition to running for 55 yards and a score.
I’d take that this week.
In the playoff game last year, we got 51 scoring opportunities (combined pass and rush attempts) and three total touchdowns.
I’d take that.
The Buffalo universe revolves around Allen’s unique skill set and that is what makes him matchup-proof. I could give you all the pro-Chiefs defense numbers in the world (there are a lot of them), but Allen is one of the few professional athletes who can transcend any matchup.
The decision around rostering Allen in a week like this is much more a question as to how to do it. Do you stack him with a receiver? Do you build a roster with two Bills and one Chief?
Allen playing at the peak of his powers can elevate a teammate or two, but it doesn’t have to. We’ve seen him wear the Superman cape at times and handle all of the valuable plays himself.
It’s human nature at this point to put a quarterback with a pass catcher (if not two), but what if you went with a chalky Allen, but didn’t include a teammate? Maybe you get a little cute with an Allen/James Cook build, where you get two potentially popular players, but in a different way than most of the competition.
Given the level of QB play on this slate, I don’t expect the ownership to get out of control on any of them. If you think Allen continues his magical season, I’d lock him into a handful of lineups and experiment with specific builds around him.
Patrick Mahomes, QB | KC (vs. BUF)
Patrick Mahomes was fine and the Chiefs won.
I could have copied and pasted that sentence from maybe any one of a dozen Cheat Sheets from this season and it would have been just as true as it was last weekend. The Chiefs didn’t need their all-time QB to do much (177 yards on 25 attempts, 72.3 QB+ grade) and they had no issue in advancing past the Texans.
Can they pull that off this week?
I tend to think otherwise, but that may come down to the Bills’ defense and its plan of attack. They were a low-pressure team all regular season long, but they’ve opted for aggression thus far in the playoffs. It has resulted in their two highest pressure rates of the entire season (45.2% of Lamar Jackson’s dropbacks last week and 46.4% of Bo Nix’s in the Wild Card win).
If they can continue to get home, they might force Mahomes into a few mistakes, grind out long drives, and advance to the Super Bowl.
If they can’t, it’s going to be easy to look back at the pricing board this week and wonder why we didn’t load up on Mahomes exposure as the cheapest QB of the slate.
Since Week 9, when not pressured, Mahomes has completed 73.1% of his passes with 13 scores and no interceptions. This extended run of dominance was highlighted by a 19-of-22 performance in such spots against these Bills for 177 yards and two touchdowns. They were unable to make him uncomfortable in that game and that was a flaw this time last season, as they pressured him on just 32% of dropbacks in the 27-24 loss.
I don’t doubt that they will try to heat him up. But will they succeed?
Your answer to that question should drive a handful of lineup decisions in front of you. I think they will be able to, and thus I hope to get exposure to this Kansas City backfield. I believe that will be Andy Reid’s counter to Buffalo’s aggression. If you differ from me on that front, I’d suggest you go with a three-man Chiefs stack (Mahomes with whichever two pass catchers make you happy) and build out from there.
Mahomes has a 10+ yard run in six straight games. Maybe the Bills do speed him up and that results in more rushing yards. That could make a “naked” Mahomes build one of interest for those trying to be contrarian.
With only four teams to consider this week, there are only so many options. I think ironing out your stance on the Kansas City offense is among the first steps you want to take. This is a talented group of very reasonably priced options.
Conference Championship Fantasy Football Running Backs
Austin Ekeler, RB | WAS (at PHI)
Based on preseason expectations (both from me and most of the industry), this season can be labeled as nothing other than a success for Austin Ekeler. The volume was never going to be there, but he was effective with his touches during the regular season (4.8 yards per carry and an 85.4% catch rate) and he’s done more of the same in two playoff games (5.3 yards per carry and an 87.5% catch rate).
If you want a decent floor, Ekeler is a fine play, but that’s not what I’m chasing this week. His snap share declined in the Divisional Round (38.4%) from Wild Card Weekend (47.8%), though I guess you could talk yourself around that if you expect a different game script where Washington is a possession or two behind for the majority of its offensive snaps.
This is what scares me when it comes to his upside, even if you think circumstances play into his favor:
Commanders RBs snap shares, 2024 Divisional Round:
- Brian Robinson Jr.: 63.3% snaps in WAS territory and 44.2% snaps when past midfield
- Ekeler: 33.3% snaps in WAS territory and 44.2% snaps when past midfield
Touch maximization is a piece of the puzzle and Ekeler is doing that (he has a 12+ yard run and an 18+ yard catch in both games this postseason after totaling three such games during the entire regular season), but a path to anything over 12 touches is tough to envision. That has me looking elsewhere for the majority of my Conference Championship DFS rosters.
Brian Robinson Jr., RB | WAS (at PHI)
Last week was wonderful for the select few who were Brian Robinson Jr. supporters this season, took their lumps, and remained loyal in Detroit. Everything was trending away from him (under 2.5 yards per carry in three of four contests and a five-game scoring drought), but Washington was able to keep up with the Lions and thus keep its commitment to the ground game for an entire 60 minutes.
I wasn’t sure that was likely to happen last week and I’m not too sure this week, either.
My concern is less with the projected game script and more with what the Commanders are telling us with their early-game play-calling. Here are their highest first-quarter dropback rates this season – let me know if you see a trend:
- Week 18 at Cowboys: 75%
- Week 16 vs. Eagles: 73.3%
- Week 17 vs. Falcons: 72.7%
- Wild Card at Buccaneers: 69.2%
- Week 1 at Buccaneers: 66.7%
- Divisional Round at Lions: 63.2%
There’s certainly a late-season thread to that list and that’s logical — Jayden Daniels has proven himself to be a game-wrecker and Washington wants the ball in his hands as often as humanly possible across four quarters
Robinson was targeted on 14.7% of his routes in 2022 before making significant strides in 2023, upping his rate to 19.7% and looking like a viable three-down threat. He, however, has given back all of those gains and then some this season (14.2%), making him a one-dimensional back who carries a low floor in games in which the Commanders are underdogs.
I love the fact that he has seen at least three red-zone touches in six of his past seven games (the lone exception was Week 18 at Dallas, a game Daniels left early). That gives him the potential to bail you out, but I’m not comfortable in betting on that profile against EPA’s best run defense.
- Wild Card at Buccaneers: 19.7 expected points and 7.8 PPR points
- Divisional Round at Lions: 16.3 expected points and 19.7 PPR points
The upset of Detroit was a run-pure instance for Robinson. If you like the Commanders in this game, I’d suggest you go overweight on Robinson and hope for a repeat performance. Sadly, that’s not the camp in which I fall, so I’m going to be underweight on Washington’s RB1 this week, even after a standout performance.
Isiah Pacheco, RB | KC (vs. BUF)
I’m not mad, I’m just disappointed.
I was promoting Isiah Pacheco last week and felt reasonably good about it. At least, as good as you can feel about a running back who missed considerable time and had yet to be reintroduced to his bell-cow role.
- Kansas City rested its starters in Week 18 and had Wild Card Weekend off
- Kansas City ran for 124 yards and two TDs vs. HOU in Week 16
- Kansas City was a 9.5-point favorite
I stand by the logic of expecting a rested Pacheco to thrive, but it didn’t happen. Not even close. In the first seven minutes last week, he had three carries and a target — in the next 53 minutes, he had two carries.
Kareem Hunt ran hard against Houston (8-44-1) and the Chiefs even elected to give Xavier Worthy a carry in close instead of trying to save my call and get a Pacheco plunge. Those aren’t great signs, but those are also red flags that the DFS pricing folks have picked up on, thus resulting in Pacheco checking in below two Commanders RBs this weekend. Those are two backs, in a system with an elite dual-threat quarterback, in a game in which they are 5.5-point underdogs – not pretty.
Building rosters this weekend isn’t going to be comfortable. It can’t be. You’re trying to balance statistical projections with ownership expectations and contest payout structure — there are a lot of moving pieces, so you’re going to have to choose your spots.
I’m willing to go there at this cost. I’m hopeful that Pacheco can get 15-ish touches and get a chance to score. But more critically, I like what rosters I can build by deploying him and James Cook in this game, especially when you consider that ownership on these pass games, in my opinion, is more likely to be the popular structure.
James Cook, RB | BUF (at KC)
I expect every star to carry a pretty reasonable ownership number this weekend, but if there’s a player priced at $5,500 or higher that gets comparatively overlooked, I think James Cook is as good a bet as any.
Last week wasn’t pretty, but it never was going to be. The Ravens are one of the best run defenses in the league, no matter the metric you look at, and they bottled Cook up (5.9% of his carries gained 10+ yards, down from his season rate of 10.1%).
It happens.
This is a very cherry-picked example, but I’m going to use it because it proves my point. I’m not suggesting that it’s predictive — but it’s worth considering for a moment.
Najee Harris, 2024:
- Week 16 at Ravens: 0.47 points per touch and 11.1% of carries gained 10+ yards
- Week 17 vs. Chiefs: 0.67 points per touch and 23.1% of carries gained 10+ yards
I think we can agree that Cook is a superior talent in a superior offense when compared to Harris, giving me even more optimism that last week’s limitations are the exception (BAL: first in opponent rush first down rate; KC: 23rd) rather than the norm.
I believe that part of what has made Josh Allen better this season when compared to last is the attention this ground game demands. This season, his passer rating from within the pocket is 8.8 points higher than in 2023 and his yards per completion is up nearly a full yard — defenses are less comfortable in attacking Allen due to Cook’s production, thus resulting in more comfortable pockets and better production in those spots.
Cook is the straw that stirs this Buffalo drink — Allen is the container that holds it all. These may be famous last words, but on a per-dollar basis for building a DFS roster, I prefer Cook to Saquon Barkley.
Kareem Hunt, RB | KC (vs. BUF)
As last week wore on, the Chiefs shifted their backfield usage toward Kareem Hunt over Isiah Pacheco, somewhat of a surprising result given that the presumed RB1 had plenty of time to be at full strength for the contest.
Simply put, this is annoying to deal with for fantasy.
Hunt vs. Isiah Pacheco snap rates, 2024:
- Week 13: Hunt leads 40.3% to 32.8%
- Week 14: Pacheco leads 47.7% to 30.8%
- Week 15: Tied at 37.3%
- Week 16: Hunt leads 45.7% to 32.9%
- Week 17: Hunt leads 48.3% to 34.5%
- Divisional Round: Hunt leads 48% to 30%
The Bills boast the league’s fifth-best run defense by EPA, and that makes a role like Hunt’s even more difficult to rely on. He wasn’t the initial plan last week (Pacheco had three carries and a target in their first five offensive snaps), and that was with multiple weeks to prepare.
Hunt has scored in three straight and plays for a favorite this week — the path to him generating interest at a cheap price tag is clear and obvious. Too obvious. I might be stubborn. I might be stupid. I might be both. But I remain convinced that Pacheco is the path this team wants to go to complement its passing game, and that is going to be reflected in my ownership numbers this weekend.
If the Chiefs are only on offense for 50 plays this week like they were last, this decision is likely to be moot, as neither Hunt nor Pacheco is likely to break the slate. But if one of these backs has a big day in a tough matchup – if one of them is featured at a high level — it’s Pacheco and only Pacheco in my eyes.
Ray Davis, RB | BUF (at KC)
Ray Davis punched in Buffalo’s first score last week from a yard out and, at his price point, that’s all you need to get home. That said, praying for a repeat performance is ambitious given the production of his backfield mates and the fact that, despite running hard, he has five touches on his postseason résumé.
I’m intrigued long-term by Davis and think his hard-nosed running style is a nice fit for this offense, but the Bills have told us time and time again that he is simply a situational play (sub 10% snap share in both playoff games).
If you’re rolling the dice on a player to make the most of a few opportunities, I’d rather do it by way of a receiver. I like Davis over a backup running back like Kenneth Gainwell, but if you’re punting off your Flex spot, I’m landing on the secondary Buffalo targets before its RB2.
Saquon Barkley, RB | PHI (vs. WAS)
On the downside, NFL protocol is that you only get to play the same team once in the playoffs.
Saquon Barkley has more rushing yards in touchdowns against the Rams this season (282) than any other player has for the season as a whole.
On the plus side, this is DFS and you have every right to load up on Barkley exposure if you’d like.
Those chunk plays don’t just come against the Rams — Barkley has five 60-yard rushing touchdowns this season, an NFL record. He’s averaging 2.55 yards per carry before contact, a rate that is not only 41.7% better than his previous career best but a cool 160.2% better than a year ago with the Giants.
The Commanders may not be as forgiving as the Rams on the ground, but Barkley hasn’t exactly had issues picking them apart this season. With him proving to be weatherproof last weekend, being 24.6% more expensive than any other RB is plenty justifiable.
Regular season games with 26+ carries, 5+ YPC, and 2+ rushing TDs, 2024:
- Barkley: three
- Barkley against the Commanders: two
- All other NFL RBs: two (Jonathan Taylor and Bijan Robinson)
The question is not if rostering Barkley makes sense, but if you can build a team around him that gives you a path to the top of a tournament.
I couldn’t.
That doesn’t mean it’s wrong. But every time I tried to build a roster like that, I kept landing on the same punt plays, and that makes me think that’ll be common amongst our competition this weekend. Barkley is going to be popular – that much I feel good about. But you’ll need to be almost perfect around him should he give us another historic performance.
Instead, in building without him, we open ourselves up to some more unique lineups and we are only one point of failure (“non-stardom” might be more accurate than “failure”) from getting a massive leg up on the field.
Remember that Barkley lineups are unlikely to have the funds to pay up for A.J. Brown, thus lowering his projected ownership. You’re probably not fading the Eagles as a whole, so if you elect to look elsewhere at running back, Brown profiles as something of a correlated play from an ownership point of view.
Conference Championship Fantasy Football Wide Receivers
A.J. Brown, WR | PHI (vs. WAS)
I’m not sure if “buying low” is really a thing at this point in the year, but if it is, A.J. Brown’s name sits atop that list. I think that helps us out here.
All of the high-priced options this week go under the microscope in a major way. We only have two games/four teams to look at and that is when everyone’s purse strings tighten — we have to be so precise on a pay-up option that we, as humans, are worried about messing it up.
So when you click on Brown’s name and his postseason “production” pops up, it’s hard to not take notice.
- Wild Card Round vs. Packers: one catch, three targets, and 10 yards
- Divisional Round vs. Rams: two catches, seven targets, and 14 yards
That’s an eyesore. Brown’s name has been a popular one in the news cycle because of his focus on “Inner Excellence,” but we pay for outer excellence and simply haven’t gotten it.
He deserves to be the top-priced receiver on this slate and I have him ranked as WR1, but I don’t think he’ll be an overly popular DFS option. The priciest player at any position is tough to get to in the first place, but when you consider that the uber-consistent Terry McLaurin sits just behind him on the WR board and that his teammate is coming off of a slate-breaking performance (oh, and a historic season), there’s a path to Brown being less popular.
If that’s the case, it’s time to pounce.
He did manage to earn an end-zone target last week, though three straight games without a red-zone look is a problem. Is Brown still the alpha in this receiver room? That’s the question you need to wrestle with.
For me, the answer is “yes” and I’m not overly hesitant in saying as much. Physically imposing WR1’s have been an issue for Washington at times this season, too.
Top WR PPR fantasy performances vs. Washington, 2024:
- Ja’Marr Chase, Week 3: 29.8 PPR points (133.4% over expectation)
- Malik Nabers, Week 2: 28.7 PPR points (18 targets)
- A.J. Brown, Week 16: 23.7 PPR points (15 targets)
- Mike Evans, Week 1: 23.1 PPR points (86.9% over expectation)
The Commanders’ defense has looked better of late, but given that they allow the 10th-most yards per play-action pass attempt, I’m comfortable in paying up for Brown’s services with the thought that the Eagles can unlock their biggest mismatch.
Amari Cooper, WR | BUF (at KC)
The Amari Cooper acquisition made sense at the time and has made sense for exactly four quarters this year. That’s it. If you want to bet on that form returning out of nowhere, be my guest. But you’re spitting in the face of essentially everything that the Bills have told us via usage patterns.
- Week 14 vs. LAR: 14 targets on 26 routes in the shootout against the Rams in Week 14
- Rest of Cooper’s Bills career: 22 targets on 140 routes
That includes eight yards on 23 routes this postseason. As concerning as the yardage total is, the 23 routes are just as terrifying — 11.5 routes per game is going to require a level of efficiency that we have no proof of in order to pay off your optimism.
I’m aware that, at this price, there’s no such thing as a real “bad” play. A single catch could make Cooper worth rostering — and when you play with an elite QB, plays like that can pop up seemingly out of nowhere.
That said, the price point suggests that he is going to give us 72% of what Khalil Shakir does in a PPR setting, and that doesn’t pass the smell test for me. Introduce the suddenly impactful Dyami Brown into the equation or the high-usage Hollywood Brown and Cooper is a tough sell on a per-dollar production point of view for those priced in his general vicinity.
Curtis Samuel, WR | BUF (at KC)
Let’s be honest — are you really considering Curtis Samuel if not for his 55-yard touchdown in a game that was already all but decided in the Wild Card Round against the Broncos?
I say no.
Remove that single catch and here are his last five games with a fully involved Josh Allen:
- Divisional Round vs. Ravens: 10 routes, two targets, and nine yards
- Wild Card vs. Broncos: 15 routes, two targets, and 13 yards
- Week 15 at Lions: 12 routes, two targets, and one yard
- Week 14 at Rams: 25 routes, three targets, and 15 yards
- Week 13 vs. 49ers: seven routes and zero targets
The outlier touchdown made him a viable option during a postseason slate, and people even considering Samuel (heck, people reading this portion of the article) seem to be holding onto that with too much value in my opinion.
Tre Tucker, Calvin Austin III, and Tylan Wallace all also had a 55+ yard score this season. Did you ever once consider calling their numbers?
Unlikely.
Samuel saw his playing time dip from 41.7% in the Wild Card Round to 30.5% in the Divisional Round, and it’s hard to think Buffalo features him in this spot. Khalil Shakir is the slot machine in this offense with Amari Cooper and Keon Coleman as more dangerous downfield threats. Sprinkle in James Cook and Dalton Kincaid’s usage — you start running out of ways for Samuel to pay off his admittedly low price tag.
I’ll have punt options across my rosters this week (you have to), but Samuel isn’t on that list.
DeAndre Hopkins, WR | KC (vs. BUF)
I keep waiting, and I keep being let down.
Can one of these receivers acquired in a deadline deal actually pay off? Mike Williams never got there for the Steelers, and Amari Cooper is part of a WR room in Buffalo that isn’t being counted on with regularity — DeAndre Hopkins might be our best bet.
“Best,” of course, is awfully relative. The future Hall of Famer has just one end-zone target over his past four games after seeing seven in his first seven with the Chiefs; with his teammates getting more involved, the path to playing time, let alone production, simply isn’t clear.
Hopkins’ receiving production, 2024:
- Week 13 vs. Vegas: 56.7% snap rate and 16.7 expected points
- Week 14 vs. Chargers: 52.3% snap rate and 15.6 expected points
- Week 15 at Browns: 45.3% snap rate and 9.6 expected points
- Week 16 vs. Texans: 45.7% snap rate and 6.5 expected points
- Week 17 at Steelers: 43.1% snap rate and 6.9 expected points
- Divisional Round vs. Texans: 26% snap rate and 1.7 expected points
I think we get a situation where Hopkins is more owned this week than any of the metrics (standard or advanced) suggest is advantageous. His name residing next to Dyami Brown and Kenneth Gainwell on the Flex price list is — well, it’s jarring, even for me, someone who studies usage and stats as much as anyone.
I can’t justify operating with much optimism, and that’s even more the case if we start seeing him get clicked consistently. I don’t mind throwing a dart on a K.C. WR in this game, but Hopkins would be my third choice.
DeVonta Smith, WR | PHI (vs. WAS)
DeVonta Smith has caught all eight of his targets this postseason. Given that Jalen Hurts has thrown just 41 passes in those games, that production is nothing to sneeze at.
The efficiency is a must-have if the volume is going to be this prohibitive, and I think it has a decent chance of sticking if this current role is the one he fills on Championship Weekend. Against the Rams, Smith totaled nine air yards on his four targets — sure, they only netted 21 yards, but it means that he is being fed high-percentage looks.
In a low-volume offense, I much prefer to see a few all-or-nothing targets, especially when playing alongside a receiver who is objectively more dangerous in those spots.
Last week was a bit drastic, but that’s now six sub-9.0-yard aDOT games in his last seven, a trend that symbolizes an intentional pivot. Included during that run are a pair of Washington matchups where Smith was able to turn his 14 targets into just 80 touchdown-less yards.
For me, Smith is a no-exposure play. It’s scary given his ability, but given the pricing structure of this week, I’m just not landing there. I’ve got A.J. Brown listed as a better per-dollar option, and I’d rather go with Khalil Shakir if we are talking about players in Smith’s price tier.
Dyami Brown, WR | WAS (at PHI)
Jayden Daniels is obviously the story in Washington, but what Dyami Brown is doing is amazing. And by “amazing,” I mean without context. Never mind the fact that we are talking about a third-round pick whose career yardage total across four seasons would have ranked 43rd this season alone. Never mind the fact that he had five games this season with six or fewer receiving yards.
Forget all of that.
Commanders with 5+ catches and 85+ yards in consecutive playoff games:
- Charlie Brown (1984)
- Art Monk (1992)
- Gary Clark (1992-93)
- Brown (current)
If he can hit that production threshold again in the NFC Championship Game, he will be the seventh player (ninth instance) to do it in three straight games within a single postseason:
- Larry Fitzgerald (2008): four straight
- Cooper Kupp (2021): three
- Travis Kelce (2021): three
- Kelce (2020): three
- Julian Edelman (2018): three
- Edelman (2016): three
- Vincent Jackson (2007): three
- Michael Irvin (1992): three
On his 50 routes this postseason, Brown has given the Commanders 11 catches on 13 targets for 187 yards and a score (30+ yard reception in both games). What has me interested is the team’s willingness to buy into what he is selling; they more than doubled his slot usage last week to get him the high-percentage looks.
This might be a flash in the pan long-term, but for right now, he’s a featured part of an offense that we expect to be operating in a negative game script. The DFS sites have raised his price a bit; maybe that’ll scare some people off, but I think we still very much have the green light to go this direction.
Hollywood Brown, WR | KC (vs. BUF)
Hollywood Brown has been targeted on 30.4% of his routes during his Chiefs tenure, and that should have me highly excited given his price tag.
It doesn’t.
I’ll have exposure, don’t get me wrong, but what if Brown’s introduction to #ChiefsKingdom is as good as it gets? Only two players reached that mark this season (Puka Nacua and Malik Nabers), so asking a receiver who is on his third team in four years and averages 50.5 yards per game for his career despite a plus role for the bulk of it is a lot.
Even with this hyper-involved role, Brown has nine catches for 91 yards to show for his three games with the team. Andy Reid is working him into the game plan more; that is why I have him labeled as a fine buy at a 23.6% discount off of Xavier Worthy. It’s a bet on this offensive infrastructure more than the player himself.
Brown’s snap share, 2024:
- Week 16 vs. Texans: 27.1%
- Week 17 at Steelers: 43.1%
- Divisional Round vs. Texans: 58%
The floor is low, and as long as you go in with eyes wide open about that, rostering him is fine. I think Kansas City’s offense is going to be pushed more this weekend than last; that is likely to give us a pass catcher (or two?) next to Travis Kelce who provides at least reasonable production. However, a few options are vying for those looks, not to mention a run game that could help dictate tempo in this spot.
JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR | KC (vs. BUF)
If you’re late to the party, it’s over for JuJu Smith-Schuster.
This Kansas City offense isn’t as explosive as we’d like it to be, and there simply isn’t a role for this slot receiver, despite him being a name you know and a price that is close to insulting in the DFS streets.
Smith-Schuster has turned his 70 routes over the past month into three receptions. That role alone isn’t roster-worthy. Forget fantasy, that’s not NFL roster-worthy. The Bills have a plethora of receivers that you can roll the dice on in an effort to pinch pennies, and the secondary options in Kansas City won’t break the bank, either.
Not all discounted items need to be invested in. They are discounted for a reason — you can attend my weekly TED talk on this topic with my wife every Thursday night.
Keon Coleman, WR | BUF (at KC)
Rookie receivers often take time to develop, that much we know. The problem is the vague nature of that statement.
“Take time.”
It “took time” for me to propose to my now-wife. We met in high school — so technically, it took me a decade to ask her. It also “took time” for me to cook lunch yesterday. Both of those sentences are accurate, but the “time” frame is very different.
Keon Coleman is on the “Kyle takes too long to propose to his girlfriend” timeline more than the “lunch-making” path that Ladd McConkey assumed.
Is that clunky? It is, but you get the point. Not all development is linear, and Coleman’s profile doesn’t scream Divisional Round breakout. The rookie has just four catches on 62 routes over his past three games, and his past 113 routes have netted just 85 yards.
You’re going to have to get different somewhere on this slate, and if you want to bet on a talented young receiver with a game-breaking QB, I can’t call you crazy. That said, the Chiefs are a top-10 defense in both pressure rate and deep touchdown pass percentage — two strengths that make Coleman having a ceiling game a tough sell.
He’s priced in the same tier as Curtis Samuel and Amari Cooper for this slate, a ranking that I think makes plenty of sense. From a per-dollar point of view, I’d roll the dice on Coleman of that group, but it’s Khalil Shakir or bust for me in this receiving room in most situations.
Khalil Shakir, WR | BUF (at KC)
Are we back?
After a 25-game run of elite efficiency, the Josh Allen/Khalil Shakir connection seemed — well, ordinary. He caught just five of 12 targets to round out the regular season, and without elite single-catch upside, his appeal as a fantasy asset is very much tied to that high-end catch rate that we came to know and love.
We are back.
Shakir has caught 12 of 13 targets this postseason (4.8 aDOT) and has thus produced 17.5% over PPR expectations across those two games. This is what we are looking for and why he’s pretty clearly the top option in this passing game.
Chiefs’ passing production allowed, 2024:
- Short passes: Ninth-highest completion percentage allowed
- Slot passes: Highest completion percentage allowed
Opponents have completed 79.9% of their slot passes against this Chiefs defense, a rate that is 2.8 percentage points worse than any other defense and 7.1 points ahead of the NFL average. I’ve got my eyebrow raised at Shakir’s recent usage, though I’ll admit that I’m not overreacting to this small sample trend.
Skakir’s slop snap rates, 2024:
- Week 15 at Lions: 77.5%
- Week 16 vs. Patriots: 67.4%
- Week 17 vs. Jets: 63.9%
- Wild Card vs. Broncos: 52.6%
- Divisional Round vs. Ravens: 48.7%
Asking Shakir to break the slate isn’t reasonable, but could he turn 6-8 targets into 13-16 PPR points and prove critical to having success in this two-game slate?
Very possible.
Terry McLaurin, WR | WAS (at PHI)
Malik Nabers enthusiasts, this is the profile you’re looking at. The Giants’ rookie is an elite talent without much target competition playing in an offense with little upside under center.
Sound familiar?
Terry McLaurin has been activated this season (15 TD catches, one more than he totaled over the three seasons prior), and there are no signs of him being slowed as long as Jayden Daniels is playing at this level.
The quality of the pass is a gateway. Don’t get me wrong, deep passes that are in the right zip code are helpful, but I’m more a fan when it comes to projecting how these players are going to do weekly, on what the threat of such a pass does for them — and last week was a perfect example.
The Lions have often been attacked deep this season as their opponents have been forced to operate in an aggressive game plan based on the game script. Instead of putting themselves in that spot, the Commanders were comfortable in dialing back McLaurin’s route depth in an effort to keep him involved.
With Detroit having to respect his ability to stretch the field vertically, these passes were successful (Divisional Round: 1.6 aDOT). You can’t always count on a screen pass breaking loose for a 58-yard touchdown, but the foundation was laid to make that possible.
That doesn’t happen without Daniels. In the first five seasons of his career, McLaurin’s longest gain on a short pass was 42 yards, and that was his only 35+ yard reception on such a pass. This offense isn’t just explosive, it’s expansive, and that is why Washington representing the NFC in the Super Bowl isn’t a crazy thought.
McLaurin has now scored nine times in eight games, and if you extend his numbers in those contests for a 17-game season, we are talking about fantasy’s WR2.
- 96 catches
- 1,171 yards
- 19 touchdowns
- 19.3 PPR PPG
McLaurin deserves to be priced as a Tier 1 receiver this week. I don’t have him penciled into my preliminary Conference Championship DFS lineup, but that’s more of a roster construction thing than it is anything against Washington’s star.
Xavier Worthy, WR | KC (vs. BUF)
It very much feels like a matter of “when,” not “if” we get the Xavier Worthy breakout game. Don’t get me wrong, he had a strong three-week run in December, but I think we all had peak DeSean Jackson-type explosion games in mind when the Chiefs made Worthy the No. 28 overall selection last April, and we haven’t gotten there yet.
Chiefs’ pass catcher snap shares, 2024 Divisional Round:
- Worthy: 68%
- Travis Kelce: 64%
- Hollywood Brown: 58%
- Noah Gray: 44%
- JuJu Smith-Schuster: 30%
- DeAndre Hopkins: 26%
Andy Reid drew up a fade to Worthy on Kansas City’s second drive last week and followed up that attempt with a running play to him. The eight-yard loss wasn’t optimal for those of us holding “anytime TD” tickets, but from a usage and projection standpoint, the Chiefs’ determination to get him involved is encouraging.
For the game, Worthy posted a 25% target share for the fourth straight contest, matching the longest streak Malik Nabers produced this season — you know, the all-time rookie leader in targets.
The writing is on the wall, I’m just not sure it happens in this spot.
Fifth in INT rate and seventh in yards per completion on deep balls (15+ air yards)
Seventh in TD/INT rate and eighth in passer rating and on short throws (under five air yards)
Buffalo’s defense seems uniquely geared to take away the extremes in the passing game (vertical shots and dump-offs), the exact area in which Worthy lives.
Could Reid scheme up creativity in the middle of the field? Of course, he could, and betting on Big Red in a big spot is generally a plus-EV move.
That said, we have proof that the Chiefs don’t need Worthy to put big numbers on the board to succeed, and with “Playoff Kelce” seemingly activated, the target share upside is a concern.
I’ll be making a pretty pro-Worthy case in a month when we turn our attention to the 2025 season. And while I understand how you can get there for this week, I’m choosing to avoid this matchup and get Kansas City exposure elsewhere.
Conference Championship Fantasy Football Tight Ends
Dalton Kincaid, TE | BUF (at KC)
You’re going to have to do some wish casting during a two-game slate, and for me, that spot is Dalton Kincaid. The production has been downright pitiful, that I can’t deny.
Eight hundred and thirty; that’s a big number. That’s the sort of yardage projection I had for Kincaid entering this season.
Instead, that’s the number of instances this season in which a player has had 54+ receiving yards in a game, a list bereft of Kincaid’s name.
And now I’m recommending you go this route?!?
The touchdown equity isn’t there — Week 9 was Kincaid’s last end-zone target — but this price point is getting goofy. Kincaid played the majority of Buffalo’s offensive snaps for the first time since early November, and he has a 12.4 aDOT this postseason, not a bad profile for a team with an implied point total of 23 this week.
DraftKings pricing, Conference Championship Weekend:
Kincaid and DeVonta Smith: $9,400
Travis Kelce and Curtis Samuel: $9,500
Listen, I’m not saying Kincaid is a must-play. I’m saying he’s a must-consider.
The recent box scores are ugly, and the vibes aren’t high right now. Nevertheless, everyone has a price, and I think we are at that point with Kincaid.
Dallas Goedert, TE | PHI (vs. WAS)
I have nothing against Dallas Goedert, I just can’t see myself building a roster around him given the pricing structure this week. At the tight end position, it’s essentially Travis Kelce and everyone else — Goedert is priced at the top of that second tier, but it’s a coin flip.
- Eagles: 25.7 pass attempts and 17.4 completions
- Bills: 29.9 pass attempts and 19.2 completions
- Commanders: 31.1 pass attempts and 21.6 completions
When compared to Kincaid and Zach Ertz, Goedert not only has two of the top three receivers vying for targets alongside him, but he also has access to the smallest target pie.
Sure, he’s caught at least four passes in three straight games and in five of his past six, but his upward trajectory is limited at best. And if the Packers could tackle, I think there’s a good chance that Goedert is priced at the bottom of this tier, not the top.
The Commanders allow the sixth-fewest yards per catch after the reception since Week 7, tremendous growth for a defense that ranked 22nd through six weeks (15.5% fewer YAC allowed during this improvement).
Dawson Knox, TE | BUF (at KC)
Dawson Knox just won’t go away. The Bills clearly value what he brings to the table, but for fantasy purposes, he’s a drain.
We’ve now seen him play 46-60% of the snaps in four straight games, and that’s lovely, but are you really considering playing him? We are more than a month clear of Knox’s last three-catch performance and north of three months removed from his last touchdown.
He’s not a target earner, and given the condensed nature of Buffalo’s offense, once they get in scoring position, there’s just not enough meat on the bone. Knox’s impact has been on limiting Kincaid’s upside (seven targets total over his past three games and under 50 receiving yards in seven of his past eight).
There are places to get cute, but this isn’t it for me (one end-zone target since Week 8).
Travis Kelce, TE | KC (vs. BUF)
Chess to checkers.
We knew it all season, and it’s again proven true. While the Lions were busy going all out for a meaningless Week 17 win, and the Packers dealt with injuries resulting in a Week 18 game that, as it turned out, had no impact on seeding, the reigning champions managed their Hall of Fame tight end since November. And guess what?
The man showed out in the Divisional Round.
Travis Kelce finished with 66.1% of the Chiefs’ receiving yards in the 23-14 win over the Texans — the only instance in which a TE accounted for a higher percentage of his team’s receiving yards in a playoff game since 2000 was … yep, Mr. Kelce (2019 Divisional Round against the same Houston team).
Kelce scored twice on five catches against the Bills last postseason, and I’d suggest looking at that game more than the regular-season meeting (Week 11 at Buffalo: two receptions for eight yards) between these two), as that is when Andy Reid elects to unleash the beast.
Kelce’s per-game production since 2022:
- Regular season: 6.3 catches, 85 targets, 65.5 yards, and 15.2 PPR points
- Playoffs: 8.3 catches, 9.5 targets, 91.1 yards, and 23.4 PPR points
Kelce’s 49-yard catch in the Divisional Round was his longest in 454 days. It would appear that we have cheat code Kelce back on our hands for the rest of this season.
Paying up for him can be done if you like the value at receiver (Kelce is 33.3% more expensive than any other tight end on DraftKings this week), though I’d recommend waiting on some ownership projections.
If Kelce comes in low, go for it. If not, I’ll be passing (and this is my current expectation). It’s not that I’m worried about him paying off his price tag, it’s more of a roster construction thing. His price point is so much above the field that Kelce owners are all going to land in the same range of players elsewhere, thus making it difficult to differentiate unless you go out of your way to do so with a double-TE build or an uncorrelated play (Isiah Pacheco and Kelce together, for example).
Zach Ertz, TE | WAS (at PHI)
Zach Ertz remains incredibly reliant on elite efficiency — and it keeps paying off. For the third time in four games, the veteran hauled in over 85% of his targets, a role that has remained intact despite the Dyami Brown uptick during the postseason.
The upside is limited, but the floor is appealing with him priced as TE3 on a two-game slate. Ertz has seen five end-zone targets in those four games mentioned and has multiple red-zone touches in those contests. Over his past five, he’s running 34.4 routes per game, and that creates a nice base for production, especially as an underdog again this weekend.
That said, I’m paying even further down at the position. The Eagles are the best team in the league in terms of yards per pass allowed on short attempts (under 10 air yards), a strength that figures to directly impact Washington’s tight end who posted his lowest aDOT in the Divisional Round since Week 9 (4.6). If the upside is limited and there are concerns about the role that has made Ertz profitable over the past month, I prefer to go to Buffalo to satisfy the TE slot in my DFS roster.
GPP DraftKings Conference Championship Roster
QB: Jalen Hurts
RB: Saquon Barkley
RB: James Cook
WR: A.J. Brown
WR: Dyami Brown
WR: Hollywood Brown
TE: Dalton Kincaid
FLEX: Isiah Pacheco
D/ST: Eagles
