With the regular fantasy football season over, it is time to switch focus to NFL playoff fantasy games. In this week’s start/sit, we break down Wild Card Weekend to find the top fantasy options to target.
We will use matchup data from Weeks 14 to 17 to examine who the data recommends as start ’em and sit ’em options. Should fantasy managers trust the likes of Travis Etienne Jr., Mike Evans, Tyler Lockett, Rachaad White, and Brandon Aiyuk this week?
After Week 18 saw a lot of teams resting starting options, we have not included that data in our research for the week ahead. Therefore, all four-week data will span Weeks 14 to 17.
Wild Card Weekend Fantasy Football Start ’ems
Whatever format of NFL playoff fantasy football you chose, this article can help you identify some players that might be top options this week. The data used is based on half-PPR scoring, so these recommendations work perfectly for sites such as Underdog Fantasy, which use that as their standard scoring system.
Kirk Cousins, QB | MIN vs. NYG
The New York Giants’ defense did a reasonably good job against Jalen Hurts and the Philadelphia Eagles offense in Week 18. That performance may lead to managers undervaluing Kirk Cousins in the first week of the playoffs. However, in the four weeks prior to that, we saw mixed results from the Giants.
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While the Giants did a good job against the Indianapolis Colts’ and Washington Commanders’ offenses, they struggled against both Cousins in Week 16 and Hurts in Week 14, when he was fully healthy. In those two weeks combined, the Giants allowed 54 fantasy points to the QB position. Cousins had 24.16 fantasy points the last time these two met.
Daniel Jones, QB | NYG @ MIN
Daniel Jones is extremely intriguing this week, especially in one-and-done fantasy leagues. The matchup with the Minnesota Vikings is nice, as they have allowed an average of 18.74 fantasy points to opposing QBs, including a 20.76 fantasy point performance for Jones in Week 16.
The game between the Vikings and Giants should be extremely close in Wild Card Weekend — DraftKings Sportsbook has the Vikings as three-point favorites. In one-and-done formats, both Jones and Cousins could make plenty of sense strategically with nice matchups to exploit.
Elijah Mitchell, RB | SF vs. SEA
While all eyes will be on Christian McCaffrey, Elijah Mitchell could actually be a strong fantasy option this week. The Seahawks’ defense has struggled against opposing RBs, allowing an average of 25.08 fantasy points to backs between Weeks 14 and 17. We also saw Mitchell looking good in Week 18, averaging 11 yards per rushing attempt and finding two touchdowns.
Sportsbooks have the 49ers as 10-point favorites, so this game could end up being a blowout in the second half. That would favor Mitchell getting more touches, with the 49ers wanting to protect McCaffrey. There are tougher potential matchups to come in the NFC playoffs, so now is a good time to try and use Mitchell in one-and-done formats if you want to get a little funky.
Travis Etienne Jr., RB | JAX vs. LAC
Travis Etienne Jr. is an intriguing fantasy option this week. The matchup with the Los Angeles Chargers is really nice, and this game is projected to be highly competitive. We may not see Etienne get deeper into the playoffs than Wild Card Weekend, which means in those one-and-done formats, he may be worth using now.
If you are drafting in Best Ball or full playoff formats, Etienne is still worth considering. If the Jacksonville Jaguars get past the Chargers, other defenses, such as that of the Chiefs, can be exploited on the ground as well.
Mike Evans, WR | TB vs. DAL
This game has the potential to be the most exciting of the weekend. Yes, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are nowhere near the team of the previous two seasons, but when they get clicking on offense with a nice matchup, things can look really good. We saw Mike Evans and Tom Brady get on the same page in Week 17 against the Carolina Panthers.
While Brady likely won’t get the same time in the pocket he had against the Panthers, the matchup is really nice for the Buccaneers’ WR. The Cowboys’ defense allowed an average of 41.7 fantasy points to opposing WRs in the four-week stretch our sample size covers, and they had troubles against a Sam Howell-led Commanders offense.
Tyler Lockett, WR | SEA @ SF
This game is shaping up to be one in which we see a lot of passing from the Seahawks’ offense. The 49ers are 10-point favorites, and most people expect them to have a pretty comfortable lead early in the second half. That should mean we see Geno Smith having to open up the offense and throw the ball deep.
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That suits Tyler Lockett in this matchup. The 49ers allowed an average of 34.2 fantasy points to WRs between Weeks 14 and 17. They also demonstrated vulnerability against the Arizona Cardinals with David Blough under center in Week 18. Lockett and DK Metcalf are both good options in one-and-done formats.
Gerald Everett, TE | LAC @ JAX
Gerald Everett has proven to be a capable fantasy producer at times this year. Both he and Evan Engram have been among the surprises of the season and are intriguing one-and-done considerations this week. Everett has the better matchup, facing a Jaguars team that allowed an average of 13.78 fantasy points to the position between Weeks 14 and 17.
Wild Card Weekend Fantasy Football Sit ’ems
Joe Burrow, QB | CIN vs. BAL
While we throw away much of what we saw in Week 18, the performance of Joe Burrow against the Baltimore Ravens is not one of those things. The Cincinnati Bengals played the majority of their starters, and Burrow could only manage 11.6 fantasy points. That largely matches what we saw from the Ravens’ defense in the previous four weeks, when they allowed an average of 11.01 fantasy points to opposing QBs.
Whatever the format you play, Burrow might not be an option you want to lean on heavily this week. Additionally, his potential matchup with the Buffalo Bills in the Divisional Round is also tough, so in Best Ball formats, we may not see Burrow pay off this year unless the Bengals get to the AFC Championship Game or Super Bowl.
Rachaad White & Leonard Fournette, RB | TB vs. DAL
This RB room in Tampa Bay is something I want no part of in the best of times. There doesn’t seem to be a clear backfield leader, with the Buccaneers often choosing to ride the hot hand. That makes it hard to predict who will produce for fantasy managers on a weekly basis.
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Further complicating this situation is that the Cowboys’ defense has been a very good unit in recent weeks. They allowed an average of just 13.65 fantasy points to opposing backs in the four weeks between Week 14 and Week 17. While that leaves scope for one back to have value, it’s hard to predict who it will be in this backfield.
Brandon Aiyuk, WR | SF vs. SEA
Brandon Aiyuk is a tricky fantasy option to judge this week. The Seahawks’ defense has been tough on opposing WRs down the stretch of the season. There is also the fact that the 49ers are expected to win comfortably, and the passing game could throttle back for large portions of the second half. Aiyuk is too inconsistent to trust him this week against a good secondary when the game script could play against him.