Week 16 of the fantasy football season is upon us. This week on Amazon Prime, we get a game between the Jacksonville Jaguars, who will head up north to take on the New York Jets. With no time to waste, here are the top start/sit plays for Week 16 of Thursday Night Football.
Week 16 TNF Fantasy Football Start ’ems
Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jacksonville, Jaguars
You know how bad things look if you’re like me and lost Jalen Hurts. Throw in the expected weather conditions on Saturday, and there’s a case to be made that taking the points when possible might be the best option. Given his play as of late, Trevor Lawrence is undoubtedly a name to consider.
Over the last six games, Lawrence is the QB5 in fantasy and No. 6 in EPA+CPOE. He’s thrown for at least one touchdown in nine straight games and has 12 over his last four. New York is third in yards per attempt allowed, eighth in points, and 10th in EPA. It certainly won’t be easy, but Lawrence comes in as a low-end QB1/high-end QB2 for fantasy football in Week 16.
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Zonovan Knight, RB, New York Jets
I’ve been talking about the weather this week and for a few weeks, and we’re getting the ball rolling on Thursday night. You can find my full breakdown of the weather here, but needless to say, it’s going to be brutal. Because of that, I have to downgrade the passing slightly. With a heavy reliance on the running game, Zonovan Knight should be in for a good game.
Despite the return of Michael Carter, Knight has averaged 16 touches and 50 yards but has 69 yards or more and double-digit points in three of his last four games. He’s 19th in yards after contact per attempt and is an RB2 this week against a Jags’ defense that is 26th in success rate, 24th in yards, and 22nd in explosive rate since Week 10.
Travis Etienne Jr., RB, Jacksonville Jaguars
Travis Etienne Jr. saw a significant downturn during a four-game stretch, which also included a bit of an injury, but he bounced back against the Dallas Cowboys with 21 touches and 127 total yards for an RB22 finish.
Although he doesn’t get much yardage after contact (35th), Etienne is eighth in missed tackles and top 10 in percentage of rushes of 10+ yards. Of the two running backs, Etienne does have the more difficult time against the Jets, who are fifth in EPA and second in success rate since Week 10.
However, during the stretch, they’re also 14th in yards. Where Etienne can find a bulk of his success will be in the receiving game, as the Jets are 22nd in yards per reception over the last five games. He’s an RB2 to start on Thursday Night Football.
Christian Kirk, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
While Zay Jones has been dominating the headlines as of late, Christian Kirk continues to be a target hog. Kirk has a 23.7% target share, 28.7% air-yard share, and a 28% end zone target share, and although he hasn’t scored since Week 10, Kirk has seven targets in his last four games.
Given the expected conditions and matchup, I prefer Kirk over the rest of the Jaguars’ receivers. His matchup against Michael Carter should be more advantageous, and I generally prefer players who can generate YAC in conditions like this. Kirk is a low-end WR2/high-end WR3 for Week 16.
Garrett Wilson, WR, New York Jets
I was down on Garrett Wilson last week due to the return of Zach Wilson. He was a mid-WR3, and that’s where he finished, catching four of his nine targets for 98 yards as the WR26.
Yet even with that game added into it, it barely pulled down his averages. Since Week 8, Wilson is the WR27 with a 24% target share and a nearly 33% air-yard share. He’s finished in the top 30 in six of his last seven games, with three as a WR1. I’m concerned about the passing volume, but I would still take a shot on Wilson as a low-end WR2 once again who could break off a long gain after the catch.
Zay Jones, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
As noted with Kirk, you could argue Zay Jones has been the No. 1 receiver as of late. The WR21 in points per game, Jones has a 22.8% target share, a 26% air-yard share, and is tied with Kirk with a 27.8% end zone target share. He’s finished as a WR3 or better in five of his last six, including three of his last four as the WR8 or better.
However, given the matchup versus D.J. Reid and Sauce Gardner, plus the weather, Jones is a higher-end WR3 on Thursday Night Football for Week 16.
Evan Engram, TE, Jacksonville Jaguars
Evan Engram has become consistent for one of the few times in his career. He’s the TE1 over the last three weeks with three top-six finishes in a row. He’s now the TE8 on the year, has a 29.8% target share over the previous two games, and has accumulated five red-zone targets and three receiving touchdowns.
New York will probably be his most challenging task, as they are 10th in DVOA and only have allowed two receiving touchdowns to the position. That said, New York is 20th in yards allowed. Based on the volume and the conditions, Engram is a lower-end TE1.
Week 16 TNF Fantasy Football Sit ’ems
Zach Wilson, QB, New York Jets
Did Zach Wilson finish as a QB9 last week? Yes. But did he look good doing it? Absolutely not. Wilson completed just 18 of his 35 passes for 317 yards with two touchdowns and an interception but was bailed out a couple of times by his receivers when he just chucked the ball downfield.
Between him and Lawrence, Wilson has the by far easier matchup. Since Week 10, Jacksonville is dead last in success rate and EPA. They’ve allowed the sixth most points and fourth most yards and touchdowns. But that’s not to say I trust him.
I could easily see the Jets throwing out the anchor and putting Wilson back onto his 20 to 24 passes per game pace. Throw in a couple of turnovers, and Wilson is a QB2 I would stay away from with your playoff lives on the line.
Michael Carter, RB, New York Jets
Receiving backs get a boost in games like this because dump-offs are more common. Michael Carter has been the receiving back between him and Knight. Last week he more than tripled Knight in routes ran at 23 to seven. However, he’s averaging 6.5 touches and 22.5 yards per game over the last two weeks.
There’s just not enough volume for me to recommend starting Carter. Unless he can break something for a long gain or find the end zone, it’s likely he will disappoint. Odds are you have better options on your team than to start Carter in Week 16 on Thursday Night Football.
Elijah Moore, WR, New York Jets
Of the four receivers being listed, Elijah Moore scares me the most, as his utilization has been up and down all season. Yet over the last two weeks, Moore has a 22.1% target share, near 21% air yard share, and has watched his playing time shoot up to an 89% route run rate.
Moore has 50 yards or more in three of his last four games but doesn’t carry the ceiling of Wilson. He’s a sit and shouldn’t be rostered.
Corey Davis, WR, New York Jets
Corey Davis has been out since suffering a concussion in Week 14, and he was a nonparticipant all last week. Fortunately, his health is seemingly improving, as he was a limited participant on the estimated practice report on Monday and got in a full practice on Tuesday.
That doesn’t mean you’re playing him. Davis has seen six more targets only three times this year and only once since Week 5. He is, at best, the third option in what is likely a low-volume offense. Stay away from Davis, as he shouldn’t even be rostered in most leagues.
Tyler Conklin, New York Jets
Tyler Conklin is purely a matchup streamer. And honestly, the matchup lines up this week, as the Jaguars are 31st in DVOA, 23rd in catch rate, 29th in yards, and 30th in yards per reception.
Yet, even then, Conklin is a touchdown-dependent streamer that could just as quickly give you a goose egg. Of his three touchdowns this year, two came against New England, and the other was back in Week 1. Conklin has a 15% target share with Wilson under center, but I wouldn’t trust him as anything more than a mid-TE2 that will likely give you five or fewer PPR points.