In many leagues, we have now reached the fantasy football playoffs, and there is now no room for error. Therefore, the Week 15 start/sit decisions are as crucial as ever, with just a couple of missteps being enough to end your season potentially.
Therefore, we will look at fantasy points allowed to the various positions over the past four weeks to offer advice. Under the microscope this week are the likes of Devin Singletary, Kenneth Walker III, Michael Pittman Jr., and others.
Week 15 Fantasy Football Start ’ems
When making selections in this article, we will look at data from ESPN for the previous week. Start ’em recommendations will generally have been in less than 40% of lineups in the previous week.
Meanwhile, our sit ’em recommendations will generally be players started in 50% or more of lineups the week before. The exception to that will be players coming off byes or injuries, where their numbers may not be a true reflection of their value.
Additionally, if you want another way to use the advice in this column, why not try out Underdog Fantasy? The recommendations in this article are based on half-PPR, so they dovetail nicely with Underdog, where the standard scoring system is half-PPR.
Mike White, QB | NYJ vs. DET
It was a tough outing for Mike White against the Buffalo Bills last week. The final result was that White managed just 10.72 fantasy points, throwing for 268 yards but not any touchdowns.
He ended up leaving the game twice with a rib issue before going to the hospital following the game. White did fly home with the team, suggesting that the issue is not too significant.
Assuming White can play and is not heavily limited, this matchup has a chance to be really nice for him. The Detroit Lions have allowed an average of 23.54 fantasy points per game in the last four weeks. That is the third-highest number of any team in that time period. They are also the friendliest defense to opposing QBs on the season (23.17 fantasy points per game).
Devin Singletary, RB | BUF vs. MIA
It has been a topsy-turvy season for Devin Singletary, with a mixture of performances. In the last five weeks, he has had three double-digit outputs in half-PPR and two fantasy-point performances below 10 points.
Singletary’s best performance of the season came back in Week 3 against the Miami Dolphins. In that game, he finished with 19.6 fantasy points, thanks largely to nine receptions for 78 yards and a touchdown.
MORE: Early Fantasy RB Rankings Week 15
The Dolphins have struggled in the past two weeks against RBs who could hurt them in the passing game. They gave up 29.7 fantasy points to the 49ers in Week 13 and 24.4 to the Chargers in Week 14.
The slight complication is that there is talk this could be a snow game. Therefore, the passing game could be impacted. However, that could push the ball into the hands of the running backs more this week. If weather is an issue, expect the Bills to lean more on the veteran knowledge of Singletary than their rookie.
Michael Pittman Jr., WR | IND at MIN
It was a bad outing for Pittman before the bye, as he struggled with just two receptions for 16 yards from four targets. However, in the previous three weeks, he had seen 27 targets with 20 receptions for 189 yards and a touchdown. The Colts will be looking to get their lead WR back into the game coming off their bye.
There should be plenty of opportunity for it this week against the Minnesota Vikings. Minnesota’s pass defense allowed 55.9 fantasy points to WRs last week and have allowed the third-most points on average in the past four games.
Opposing WRs have scored more than 35 fantasy points in each of the last two weeks. There is enough upside here where both Pittman and Parris Campbell could have starting-level value in half and full-PPR formats this week.
Robert Tonyan, TE | GB vs. LAR
We’ve been burnt by Robert Tonyan a few times this year, but with a juicy matchup this week, it’s tough to ignore him. The Rams may have held Foster Moreau to zero fantasy points last week, but that just makes it even more incredible they’ve allowed the third-most fantasy points to tight ends in the last four weeks.
Heading into the Thursday Night Football game in Week 14, Los Angeles had allowed 17 or more fantasy points in each of the previous weeks. The Rams had also allowed double digits in five of six weeks coming out of their Week 7 bye.
Week 15 Fantasy Football Sit ’ems
Geno Smith, QB | SEA vs. SF
This could be a tough week for Geno Smith as his Seattle Seahawks team hosts the San Francisco 49ers on a short week. Smith is on a good run, having scored 19 or more fantasy points and throwing for at least two touchdowns in his last six games. However, his last matchup with the 49ers saw him score just 6.08 fantasy points, which was his lowest return of the season.
MORE: Monday QB/TE Injury Report Week 15
The 49ers have been a really tough matchup for opposing QBs in recent weeks. They have allowed an average of 10.12 fantasy points per game to the position in the last four weeks.
Since their Week 9 bye, no QB has scored more than 12.04 fantasy points against San Francisco. On the short week, this might be a time when benching Smith could make sense based on the matchup data.
Kenneth Walker III, RB | SEA vs. SF
Sticking with the Thursday Night Football matchup, this is a cautionary tale to stay away from the Seahawks’ backfield. Walker has a chance to be back this week, but coming into a game off an injury with a tough matchup, he’s a tough player to trust.
Even if Walker ends up missing the game, fantasy managers should avoid the temptation to start DeeJay Dallas or Travis Homer. The 49ers have given up an average of 9.6 fantasy points per game to opposing running games in half-PPR. Last week, they gave up 15.8 fantasy points to the comb of Leonard Fournette and Rachaad White, but that relied on 11 receptions for 55 yards to provide 11 of those points.
The Seahawks have, at times, targeted backs heavily, with eight targets for Walker when they faced the Buccaneers in Week 10. However, Walker’s role in the passing game has been sporadic, limiting his upside.
Additionally, he’s struggled at times for efficiency in his last five games, averaging under two yards per carry twice and under three yards per carry on another occasion. This matchup, on the short week, is one where you may want to consider looking away from Walker, even if he gets back to full health in practice.
Chris Olave, WR | NO vs. ATL
The situation with New Orleans’ passing offense has looked really bad this year. One bright spot has been the play of Chris Olave, but heading into the bye, he had struggled some.
Olave failed to reach double-digit fantasy points in half-PPR scoring in four of the previous six games. This week, he faces an Atlanta Falcons defense that has done well against opposing WRs in recent weeks.
The Falcons have held opposing WRs to an average of 12.83 fantasy points per game. That is certainly helped by the fact they played a trio of Justin Fields, Taylor Heinicke, and Kenny Pickett. However, Andy Dalton is not a significant improvement to that trio.
It’s tough to sit a No. 1 option like Olave, but the Falcons’ secondary has done really well in recent weeks. Therefore, it may be worth looking through our Week 15 WR fantasy rankings to see if there is another option that can help you this week.