The NFL season is back for another week of action, and fantasy football managers are ready for a full slate of games to flood their TVs this weekend. As not all matchups or roles are equal, we’re breaking down our top fantasy football start/sit Week 12 plays.
Week 12 Fantasy Football Start ’ems
Geno Smith, QB, Seattle Seahawks
With the NFL cherry-picking away three games to play on Thanksgiving, it’s a bit of a short week. But the lack of byes during Week 12 means managers have a full slate of options to choose from for fantasy. If you’re looking for a quarterback, I’d make one of those Geno Smith.
Smith has thrown multiple touchdowns in eight of his 10 games and has 18 or more PPR points in all but two. He’s also been running the ball lately, with 20 yards in three straight and five of his last seven. Las Vegas is 32nd in both passing DVOA and EPA per dropback and sits 31st in success rate. Start Smith as a top-10 option in Week 12 for fantasy.
Jimmy Garoppolo, QB, San Francisco 49ers
Jimmy Garoppolo had his best game of the season in Week 11 against Arizona with 33 fantasy points, completing 20-of-29 for 228 yards and four passing touchdowns.
Since Week 5, Garoppolo is eighth in overall points and ninth in points per game at 18.9 PPR. New Orleans is not a team to fear anymore defensively. They are 18th in EPA, 15th in DVOA, and 11th in success rate. Garoppolo feels like a low-end QB1/high-end QB2 for the rest of the season. There’s too much talent on this team for him not to succeed in fantasy.
Michael Carter, RB, New York Jets
I didn’t expect us to be here, but here we are. Mike White is taking over at quarterback for at least this week, and that means Michael Carter is back on the fantasy radar.
In the games with White last season, Carter averaged 19.2 PPR points per game thanks to 7.8 targets, 5.5 catches, and 58 yards. Even his rushing yards were up during that time frame, too. Chicago is also a good matchup, sitting 27th in points allowed (25.22), 25th in DVOA, 23rd in EPA, and 25th in success rate. Carter is a high-end RB3 to start in Week 12.
Rachaad White, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Leonard Fournette is dealing with a hip injury that knocked him out last week, and according to reports, the hip pointer is still sore. It might keep him out of this weekend. Rachaad White comes in as a high-end RB3 to start if that’s the case.
MORE: Fantasy Football Injury Report Week 12
White took over for Fournette last week and rushed 22 times for 105 yards before the Bucs hit their bye week. With a week off to rest and recover, White has a good matchup against the Cleveland Browns, who are dead last in rushing DVOA, 31st in points allowed, 32nd in EPA, and have allowed five running backs to score at least 12 PPR points in their last three games.
Jeff Wilson Jr., RB, Miami Dolphins
Jeff Wilson Jr. clearly is the lead back, no question about it. He recorded 17 carries for 119 yards and a touchdown on Sunday while adding to receptions for 24 yards on five targets. He has 36 points over the last two games and gets to face the Texans.
Let’s just look at what the Texans have done this year against running backs. They are dead last in points allowed, 31st in DVOA, 27th in rushing EPA and success rate. Raheem Mostert also has Flex appeal, and I think both are starting running backs this week.
Elijah Moore, WR, New York Jets
If I’m using the Mike White logic for Carter, I need to use it for Elijah Moore as well. In his four games with White last year, Moore averaged 6.5 targets, 4.25 receptions, 52 yards, and 16.02 PPR points per game. In his 16 games without him, he’s averaged just 7.23 PPR.
Garrett Wilson has been phenomenal and ranks second amongst rookies with receptions (44) and receiving yards (533). He has six receptions and 90 yards or more in two of his last three games. However, that was also with the Jets refusing to throw the ball toward Moore. I think White makes it a point to get Moore involved early and often.
Although Chicago is 10th in fantasy points allowed the position, they are 30th in DVOA, 31st in EPA per dropback, and 29th in success rate. They’ve also allowed five top-12 performances this year. I will eat the chalk and start Moore in Week 12.
Christian Watson, WR, Green Bay Packers
If you went out there and fought on the waiver wire to get him, why bench him now? Christian Watson has been sensational. After securing three touchdowns and 107 yards on four of eight receiving in Week 10, Watson had two more scores on Thursday night with 40 yards on six targets.
With five touchdowns in two games, you almost have to start Watson. The matchup isn’t the easiest against the Eagles, but now we find out how legitimate Watson is and whether or not he can hold off the boom-or-bust title. He comes in as a WR3 for Week 12.
Parris Campbell, WR, Indianapolis Colts
Although the Colts are 1-1 under Jeff Saturday, it might have been the best thing imaginable for fantasy football managers. With all eyes on Michael Pittman Jr. and Alec Pierce, Parris Campbell has been the one to watch.
Over the last three games with Matt Ryan at quarterback, Campbell has been the WR9, WR5, and WR11 for fantasy. In those games, Campbell averaged 9.6 targets, 8.0 catches, and 67.6 receiving yards. He had an 18.7% target share on Sunday and faces the Steelers on Monday Night Football. With three games of 19+ PPR points in his last six, Campbell comes in right around the top 40 amongst wide receivers and is a Flex option for Week 12.
Foster Moreau, TE, Las Vegas Raiders
With Darren Waller remaining on the IR, Foster Moreau has taken over the starting TE spot, but the same level of production never carried over. Moreau is a volume-based streamer. He only has one game above 10 PPR points.
MORE: Fantasy TE Streamers and Rankings Week 12
But Week 12 is one of those weeks where you can get away with taking the risk and starting Moreau. Seattle has allowed the second-most fantasy points (19.01 PPR) and are 29th in DVOA versus the position and 24th in success rate. While it’s risky, you can start Moreau if you’ve been streaming the position as a high-end TE2/low-end TE1.
Pat Freiermuth, TE, Pittsburgh Steelers
Pat Freiermuth is coming off his best game of the season from a fantasy perspective, scoring 15.9 PPR points in Week 11. He tied a career high with eight catches and 79 receiving yards last week and has 50 receiving yards or more in three of his last four while averaging 12.2 PPR points.
Freiermuth leads the Steelers with a 30% target share and 32% air-yard share over the last two weeks and gets a middle-of-the-pack matchup against the Colts. The volume is too good here to recommend setting Freiermuth in Week 12.
Week 12 Fantasy Football Sit ’ems
Russell Wilson, QB, Denver Broncos
It’s one thing when you play poorly against good teams. It’s different when you play poorly against arguably one of the best matchups you could’ve had. That’s what happened to Russell Wilson last week when he scored just 10.68 fantasy points, which marked his fifth straight game under 15 PPR.
The last time Wilson surpassed 15 PPR points was back in Week 2. This has less to do about the middle-of-the-road matchup against the Panthers, as it is just avoiding Wilson in general. He shouldn’t even be rostered, let alone starting.
Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars
Trevor Lawrence completed 29-of-40 for 259 yards, two touchdowns, and 26 yards rushing to finish as the QB8 against the Chiefs with just over 21 PPR points. It was the fourth time this year he’s been over the 20-point mark.
He’s coming off a bye week, which should indicate good things. However, Baltimore hasn’t allowed a QB to score more than 19 fantasy points since Week 4. They are eighth in DVOA and have given up the third-fewest points to the position since Week 8. I’m staying away and sitting Lawrence in Week 12.
Cordarrelle Patterson, RB, Atlanta Falcons
Last week was rough for Cordarrelle Patterson, who played on 51% of the snaps and rushed 10 times for 52 yards while catching both his targets for seven yards. The only way fantasy managers would’ve been happy last week was if they got points for his record-breaking kickoff return.
The efficiency wasn’t bad at 5.2 a carry, but he no longer sees the volume necessary to be a low-end RB1, thanks to the continued usage of Tyler Allgeier and Caleb Huntley. Washington has allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points to the position this year and the fewest over the last month, which includes shutting down Dameon Pierce, Dalvin Cook, and limiting the Eagles’ multi-pronged attack. With a full slate of options this week, you can get by sitting Patterson in Week 12.
Cam Akers RB, Los Angeles Rams
I’ve done such a 180 on Cam Akers compared to the offseason, but that’s what happens. I thought he’d bounce back, but that has not been the case. Even after the Rams surprised many of us by releasing Darrell Henderson this week, that doesn’t mean Akers is instantly a starter.
MORE: Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer Week 12
He had 14 carries in 61 yards in Week 11 against New Orleans but didn’t find the end zone or catch a ball. He finished the day with 6.1 PPR points and is just a roster clogger more than anything. Kyren Williams is expected to be active and involved once again. While I can’t recommend outright dropping Akers, I can recommend sitting him in Week 12.
DJ Moore, WR, Carolina Panthers
I want to be happy that Sam Darnold is back under center. I really do. But I’m too much of a believe-it-when-I-see-it person. Who knows, maybe that’s a personality issue.
Either way, his 152-yard outburst in Week 8 is the only time Moore has recorded 70 yards or more in a game. He gets the pleasure of facing Pat Surtain II, who is one of the best corners in the NFL. Although I love nothing more than gloating online every time Moore does something remotely productive, he likely needs to sit in Week 12.
Diontae Johnson, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
It seems like no one wanted to face that Diontae Johnson might not be as foolproof as we hoped. The writing was on the wall.
Flashback to 2020, and of the 35 WRs with 100+ targets, Johnson was 32nd in yards per reception (10.5), 34th in yards per target (6.41), and 33rd in points per target (1.54).
In 2021, with 35 receivers again hitting 100 targets and Johnson sitting third-most, Johnson was 27th in yards per reception (10.8), 31st in yards per target (6.87), and 26th in fantasy points per target (1.6 PPR).
Johnson is averaging just 8.7 points per game with Kenny Pickett under center and sits 76th in YPRR (yards per route run) at 11.11 (minimum 25 targets). The volume is no longer there to save Johnson, as he has just a 16% target share and an 18% air-yard share over the last two weeks. Also, Johnson hasn’t even finished as a top-24 wide receiver once this year.
When you’re simply hoping for double-digit points, that doesn’t cut it. George Pickens is the No. 1 option on his team, and if he’s not open, the balls are going to Pat Freiermuth. The Colts have allowed the fewest points per game to wide receivers at 25.1 PPR. I don’t think the risk is worth starting Johnson in a week with all the options you need available.
Robert Tonyan, TE, Green Bay Packers
After recording 90 yards on 10 receptions back in Week 6 against the Jets, Robert Tonyan has combined for 14 catches and 123 yards on 19 targets in the last five games.
He has seen fewer than five targets in four of the five games. It feels like a decade removed from the 2020 campaign, where Tonyan had more touchdowns than incomplete targets.
It’s also just a bad matchup. The Eagles have allowed the sixth-fewest points per game over the last month (8.4 PPR), and they come in 12th in DVOA versus the position and second in EPA. With the news revealing that Aaron Rogers has been playing with a broken thumb since London — and the likelihood of the Eagles’ pass rush disrupting plays — I don’t see a ton of upside in Tonyan this week for fantasy.