Fantasy football is a game of maximization. At its core, this game we love is simple — score more points than your opponent. “Stacking” players (multiple players from the same team in an effort to get correlated production) in a passing game is a common DFS practice and is becoming more popular in season-long formats.
The thought behind this roster construction makes sense, but it’s often viewed as closer to optimal when you’re dealing with a pocket-passing quarterback.
Fantasy Football: Impact of a Mobile QB
Again, the train of thought makes sense. A quarterback like Matthew Stafford isn’t going to have a big fantasy day without dragging at least one, if not multiple, pass catchers along with him.
In contrast, the Philadelphia Eagles scored 34 points in Week 2 against the Minnesota Vikings, and Jalen Hurts had a productive afternoon (25.2 fantasy points). Yet, one Eagles player had 30+ receiving yards in that game.
Hurts rushed for a pair of scores and only threw 23 passes. Yet, Dallas Goedert and A.J. Brown combined for a tick over 15 fantasy points.
That’s an isolated example, though the logic holds that the correlation is stronger for “traditional” quarterbacks. With Marvin Harrison Jr. generating plenty of excitement and him being in an offense with a mobile quarterback in Kyler Murray, is it wise to double down on Arizona? Or are you better off rostering one of these two to hedge your investment?
Data talks, all we have to do is listen. We, as humans, are prone to various levels of bias, some of which we are aware of and others that we’re not. The logic part of our brains wants to connect the dots of a quarterback whose athleticism is billed as elite and game-changing.
- Quarterback A can pile up stats running
- So he must have limitations as a passer
- So his receivers must come with production concerns
- So he must have limitations as a passer
I don’t think that’s a crazy assumption to make. There’s an inverse correlation at play (by definition, when a QB runs for fantasy points, it’s a play that his pass catchers can’t score), and we’ve seen some of these ultra-athletes — be it early career Josh Allen, Hurts, Daniel Jones or, in an extreme case, Tim Tebow — be inconsistent when asked to throw the ball.
But it’s wrong.
Murray was pacing for over 500 rushing yards last season and is projected to be right around that total across the industry. Entering his age-27 season and picking up 5.8 yards per carry across in his NFL career, I’m on board with that as a reasonable expectation.
But even if you think it’s rich, you’re not penciling Murray in for under 300 rushing yards (assuming 13+ starts), are you?
Over the past five seasons, we’ve seen plenty of signal-callers hit that threshold in a given season, and I wanted to check in on the production of their top pass catcher. I wondered if the rushing production came at the cost of the primary receiver or if the alpha target earner remained productive with the fall off in receiving numbers coming down the depth chart.
Past five seasons, top pass catcher with a mobile QB
- 88.9% caught over 4.0 passes per game
- 70.4% caught 6+ touchdown passes
- 66.7% averaged north of 13.5 PPR PPG
Two-thirds of the studied players reached that 13.5 number, which is symbolic of the floor I’m assigning for Harrison. Among the pass catchers who checked in under that number were Darius Slayton (2022) and Sterling Shepard (2020) under Jones’ tutelage, Cole Kmet (2022) when teamed with an inconsistent Justin Fields, and rookie Drake London (2022) with Marcus Mariota.
Their QBs all checked the mobility box, but it’s hard to say that any of them match up with Murray in terms of ability, not to mention that most would prefer Harrison as a talent to those mentioned.
If you’re with me in that 13.5 points per game representing something of a floor, that was the Jayden Reed, Calvin Ridley, and Rashee Rice tier in 2023. Even including those situations, the pass catchers in this study averaged 14.8 PPG, which would have been good for WR17 honors last season (minimum 12 games played). That’s not a bad mean projection.
Marvin Harrison, Jr.
Red Zone 1-on-1. pic.twitter.com/DBbG34Fky0
— Matt Bowen (@MattBowen41) February 26, 2024
Sportsbooks have settled in on a 1,000-yard betting line for Harrison in his rookie season. Fantasy managers may want to hammer the over, but don’t forget that a betting line has to take injury (either to Harrison himself or impactful pieces) into account.
Even with a reasonably conservative estimate, Harrison should return fine value. Among the receivers in this study (again, past five seasons when their QB ran for 300+ yards while making 13+ starts), when they hit 1,000 yards, they averaged 8.5 touchdowns.
Why can’t Harrison produce a stat line in the vicinity of what Nico Collins (80-1,297-8) did? Even a DK Metcalf (66-1,114-8) type of performance wouldn’t be the end of the world, especially when you consider the upside that’s in Harrison’s prospect profile.
By stacking Murray with Harrison, you double dip on that volume while having access to the elite fantasy QB production that comes via mobility. That’s enticing no matter the price, but the fact that you can get both around the 10th player off the board at their respective positions, the roster you can build around this duo is interesting, to say the least.
Fantasy Football Roster Construction
The correlation coefficient isn’t as high for mobile quarterbacks simply because they have more paths to fantasy success. But when it comes to a QB with that skill set and his ability to elevate one pass catcher, you can feel good about things. And if you’re investing a top-20 pick in Harrison, you’re clearly labeling him as Murray’s top option.
Not only is the Murray/Harrison stack acceptable, it’s also one that I’m actively targeting. It’s early, but based on ADPs, this is the skeleton plan I’m rolling out there when picking in the mid-to-late portion of Round 1.
- 1st Round: Running Back (Bijan Robinson/Jahmyr Gibbs)
- 2nd Round: Marvin Harrison Jr., QB, Arizona Cardinals
- 3rd Round: Wide Receiver (Mike Evans/Jaylen Waddle/Cooper Kupp)
- 4th Round: Running Back (Isiah Pacheco/James Cook)
- 5th Round: Wide Receiver (Tee Higgins/George Pickens/Terry McLaurin)
- 6th Round: Kyler Murray, QB, Arizona Cardinals