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    Soppe’s Fantasy Football Wide Reciever Sleepers: Mike Williams, Roman Wilson, and Others Among Value Picks

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    Wide receivers are a key component of a successful fantasy team. However, the league is getting deeper at the position, creating a handful of quality fantasy football sleepers to watch for.

    The definition of “fantasy football sleepers” has evolved with time. Years ago, they were players who the general public had never heard of, let alone considered as a legitimate fantasy asset.

    A top wide receiver can feel like a crown jewel in fantasy drafts, but for those who’d rather focus on other positions early, here are a handful of wide receivers that can be had later on that could provide some value in a pinch.

    Fantasy Football Sleepers | Wide Receivers

    New York Jets: Mike Williams, WR

    During his last two seasons in Green Bay, Aaron Rodgers funneled over five targets per game to a tall WR2 (Romeo Doubs in 2022 and Marquez Valdes-Scantling in 2021) — a role that Williams finds himself in.

    There is risk involved (health or otherwise), but over his past 12 games with over five targets earned, Mike Williams has produced 1.885 PPR fantasy points per target.

    Obviously, Williams isn’t one of those guys, but the idea that he can be that efficient outside of the first 100 picks is encouraging. What if we used a receiver over 6’ tall operating as the clear-cut WR2 in a new offense as a data point?

    If we get Meyers’ numbers (71-807-8 in 16 games) from Williams with a late-round selection, we’re profiting. And that’s without adjusting for the potential that Rodgers returns to even 80% of his pre-injury form.

    New England Patriots: Ja’Lynn Polk, WR

    The same way in not all calories are the same, not all targets are the same. That said, in 2024, even the ugly offenses have the potential to provide some support through the air, and if that’s going to be the case for the Pats, their second-round pick out of Washington could be the beneficiary.

    MORE: PFN’s Consensus Fantasy Football Rankings

    Can Ja’Lynn Polk earn 21% of the targets? That doesn’t seem like a high bar to clear, given the lack of other options and his immediate role. Last season, 38 qualified receivers hit that threshold and 31 of them averaged over 12 PPR points per game (the number it took to be a top-36 performer at the position).

    A breakout for Polk isn’t going to look anything like 2023 Puka Nacua, but he should be involved, which gives him Flex appeal in PPR leagues.

    Pittsburgh Steelers: Roman Wilson, WR

    No one is going to pick up the exact role that has been vacated by Johnson. That said, the Steelers made changes under center this offseason and elected to spend a third-round pick on a complement.

    Wilson averaged over 15 yards per catch during each of his final three seasons at Michigan, and he scored on 19.4% of his catches. Whether that means running fly routes for Russell Wilson’s pretty deep ball or getting extra time to separate as Justin Fields runs around, I think he’s a decent fit alongside George Pickens.

    More importantly for this call than Wilson’s potential is my lack of confidence in those pushing him for looks. Van Jefferson is on his third roster in two seasons, and no other WR on Pittsburgh’s roster has any proof of concept when it comes to earning targets at the professional level.

    This projects to be an underwhelming offense and, thus, isn’t one I’d look to for a sleeper. If I’m going in that direction, I want a player who we’ve yet to see fail at the NFL level.

    Indianapolis Colts: Josh Downs, WR

    I believe in the Anthony Richardson wave lifting all boats, and there’s a decent chance that this offense’s best days in 2024 come at the perfect time for fantasy managers.

    Alec Pierce and Adonai Mitchell are with Josh Downs in the competition for targets behind Michael Pittman Jr. Instead of trying to split hairs in terms of raw talent, I’m taking a role approach.

    MORE: Try PFN’s Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer

    Pierce and Mitchell are going to stretch the field, while Downs figures to assume more of a short-yardage role out of the slot. The splash plays will go elsewhere, but if you told me that a non-Pittman receiver on this team had 10 usable weeks in PPR formats, Downs would be my pick.

    This is a roster construction situation. There’s a time and a place to speculate on the ceiling potential of Pierce/Mitchell, but if you’re looking for a weekly floor to offset some volatility among your starters, Downs is a fine buy assuming health.

    Jacksonville Jaguars: Brian Thomas Jr., WR

    The rookie is going as high as anyone on this list (late 10th round), but I wanted to mention Brian Thomas Jr. because he seems to be overlooked due to the top-end talent in the 2024 WR class.

    From a talent standpoint, I understand him not being in the same conversation as Malik Nabers and Rome Odunze, but fantasy is a game played in the box scores. Thomas has a chance to be the WR1 for an offense with its long-term answer at quarterback. Nabers doesn’t check either of those boxes, and Odunze is fighting to be labeled the third option in a passing game centered around a rookie QB.

    I think it’s likely that Thomas outproduces Odunze despite being picked two rounds later, and I wouldn’t call you crazy if you said he kept pace with Nabers. The Jaguars ranked fifth in pass rate over expectation last season and saw Calvin Ridley take his talents to Tennessee this offseason. The table is set for a strong return on investment on the former LSU star.

    Denver Broncos: Marvin Mims Jr., WR

    Coming out of drafts, I want my bench to be loaded with talents I believe in or players attached to a coach I trust. Marvin Mims Jr. is certainly the latter, as we haven’t seen enough of him at the professional level to make strong statements. However, Sean Payton has the sort of résumé that demands respect.

    The Broncos dealt Jeudy to the Browns in March, opening up a role for Mims to step into. That’s not to say he’ll be a supreme target earner, but if Mims generates even five looks per game (something that 50 receivers did last season), his speed could be interesting more often than not.

    Mims averaged 17.1 yards per catch last season and 20.1 in his final season at Oklahoma. Denver will have to keep up with three teams that have their franchise quarterback on the roster during the fantasy playoffs, an environment that could make Mims an asset for undermanned teams looking to pull off a major upset on their way to fantasy glory.

    Las Vegas Raiders: Jakobi Meyers, WR

    Jakobi Meyers was hardly drafted at all last season but produced in a meaningful way (71-807-8 in 16 games) despite limitations under center. Yet, he’s available in the 12th round of most drafts, with a handful of kickers currently holding a higher ADP.

    Make it make sense.

    Most are operating under the assumption that Aidan O’Connell will lead the Raiders in pass attempts this season when all is said and done, so let’s drill down on that a bit.

    O’Connell’s passes last season …

    • Davante Adams: 19% under expectation with four scores on 108 targets
    • Jakobi Meyers: 12.2% over expectation with four scores on 55 targets

    You could argue regression if you’d like, but at this asking price, I’m happy to take the flier on Meyers simply fitting O’Connell’s eye. There is increased target competition thanks to the drafting of Brock Bowers, but is it not at least possible that the addition of a reliable target is a net positive for Meyers?

    The Raiders were a bottom-10 offense in terms of staying on the field (third-down conversion rate and time of possession) and generating scoring chances (red-zone drives) last season. If a few less targets means an increase in every target as a whole, I’m fine with that.

    It’s not crazy at all to think there is more juice to squeeze here than out of Tyler Lockett, a take that seems spicy given the difference in ADP.

    Washington Commanders: Jahan Dotson, WR

    Ready for a scolding hot take? I’m not sure Jahan Dotson’s sophomore season was that much different than his rookie campaign that put him on our redraft radars.

    Yes, the counting numbers tanked (49-518-4 last season in 17 games after 35-523-7 in 2022 in just 12 contests), but the profile kind of looks the same.

    • 2022: 13.1% of targets came in the end zone
      • 2023: 14.5% of targets came in the end zone
    • 2022: 38.1% deep catch rate
      • 2023: 43.8% deep catch rate
    • 2022: 15.2% red-zone target share
      • 2023: 15.5% red-zone target share

    In some respects, Dotson was better last year despite the lack of production. I’m not saying that makes him bulletproof in 2024, but if Jayden Daniels is worth the hype, is Dotson not at least worthy of a speculative pick after the first 12 rounds?

    For what it’s worth, seven different Tigers had a 45+ yard catch last season in a Daniels-led LSU aerial attack.

    Detroit Lions: Jameson Williams, WR

    In his first four games last season, Jameson Williams was on the field for the upstart Lions for just 38.3% of their offensive snaps. Following that (including the playoffs), his snap rate spiked to 62.5%.

    The funniest thing happened; Detroit scored 30+ points in the majority of those games. The game-breaking athleticism isn’t a secret, but it also might not be defendable.

    Cooks, DeVonta Smith, Jordan Addison, and Tank Dell all produced good-to-great numbers given their preseason expectations. They all owned an above-average aDOT (average depth of target) while playing alongside a top-10 receiver.

    With an ADP well outside of the top 100 overall, Williams simply owning high one-week upside is enough to pay off picking him. I view that as his floor in 2024, with his ceiling being that of a player you consider for your Flex spot on a regular basis, especially given the largely weatherproof nature of Detroit’s schedule.

    Arizona Cardinals: Michael Wilson, WR

    The 6’2” Michael Wilson averaged 14.9 yards per catch as a rookie and seems to be the forgotten man as the industry as a whole pencils the Cardinals in for a significant step forward offensively.

    There’s no question that Wilson’s ceiling is the third option in the passing game, with Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride the alphas. However, if Arizona’s offense takes off the way we believe it can, an athletic third option could sneak into Flex radars by way of the big play.

    Asking for consistent production is a bit optimistic, but 4-6 targets on a regular basis could easily happen. Wilson’s profile puts him in a position to make plays if given that level of opportunity.

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