The 2024 NFL season is set to begin later this week, which means fantasy football is officially back!
The season opener can always be a bit unpredictable from a fantasy lens, but here are some sleepers to consider as starting options for your fantasy squad in Week 1.
Who Are Some Week 1 Sleepers to Consider in Your Fantasy Lineups?
Baker Mayfield, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense was far more productive than most fantasy managers expected last year and draws one of the most favorable matchups from last year to start the season: the Washington Commanders.
Opposing quarterbacks averaged 20.8 fantasy points per game versus Washington in 2023 — which was the second-highest mark in the league!
Dan Quinn’s arrival as the new head coach marks a shift in defensive philosophy from a quarters-heavy scheme (which the Commanders called on 21.8% of plays last year) to Cover 1 (man coverage principles with a single-high safety) — which Quinn called at the third-highest rate in the league last year, 31.1%.
Why does this matter? Well, I don’t believe the collection of Benjamin St-Juste, Emmanuel Forbes Jr., Michael Davis, or rookie Mike Sainristil will have much success locking up Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, or Jalen McMillan for the entire contest. Mayfield should be able to connect on some of these shots down the field against Commanders when facing Cover 1.
The interior of the Bucs’ offensive line received a significant upgrade with Graham Barton joining this unit, which should help Tampa Bay limit the impacts of Daron Payne and Jonathan Allen providing interior pressure in passing situations.
Additionally, Baker Mayfield really turned a corner as a reliable fantasy option around the middle of the season in 2023. From Week 8 on, Mayfield ranked as the QB5 overall, outscoring Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, and Brock Purdy during that stretch.
If you are in need of a sleeper option at QB for Week 1, then Mayfield is a quality option.
Jaleel McLaughlin, RB, Denver Broncos
The subtraction of Samaje Perine from this backfield officially clears the way for Jaleel McLaughlin to see an expanded role alongside Javonte Williams in this backfield to start the season.
I’m excited about how this development elevates McLaughlin’s pass-catching floor in 2024; most fantasy managers don’t realize Perine caught 50 passes on 56 targets during his only season in Denver.
No team targeted the running back position more often than the Denver Broncos last year with a 29.8% target share last year — 5% higher than the second-place team (New York Jets). This certainly gives McLaughlin a path to seeing far more work in the passing attack in 2024.
The Broncos’ collection of WRs entering the 2024 season doesn’t inspire a ton of confidence against a revamped defensive scheme under new head coach Mike Macdonald with players like Riq Woolen and Devon Witherspoon who could blossom in this new system.
Since I believe Courtland Sutton and Marvin Mims Jr. could struggle against this secondary and this will be the starting debut of rookie QB Bo Nix, I could see a path where the running backs are heavily involved in the screen game and as a check-down option for the young signal caller.
Additionally, this defense’s one weakness last year was against opposing rushing attacks. The Seahawks gave up an average of 138.4 rushing yards per game — 31st in the league.
Lastly, it could be argued that McLaughlin is the better option out of the backfield over Williams when simply comparing the per-touch efficiency marks from last year. Of players that saw 100+ total touches last year, McLaughlin’s 0.99 fantasy points per touch ranked 10th at the position; Williams’ mark of 0.69 ranked 45th.
Expect McLaughlin to be heavily involved in Week 1 with a favorable matchup to make him a sneaky play in full-PPR formats.
Jalen McMillan, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Remember when I mentioned that the Commanders’ pass defense was pretty rough last year against opposing quarterbacks? Well, they were equally awful against opposing receivers, too. Receivers regularly feasted against this secondary last year, averaging 35.4 fantasy points per game (31st).
The common consensus would be to start Evans and Godwin with confidence this week — which you should — but if you need a sleeper at the WR position, McMillan is worth a look.
The rookie consistently impressed throughout training camp and secured the WR3 role in this offense, which is incredibly valuable in new offensive coordinator Liam Coen’s scheme.
The Bucs leaned heavily into 11 personnel (three WRs, one RB, and one TE on the field) last year with 734 snaps in that package — that was the 10th-highest mark in the league.
Additionally, Coen’s usage of three WRs on the field often mirrors the Bucs’ usage last year. Three Kentucky WRs saw north of 450 snaps while no TE on the roster topped 330.
All that to say, McMillan is going to be on the field a lot in 2024. If that is the case in Week 1 against this Charmin-soft Washington secondary, he could have a quality fantasy performance to start his NFL career.
McMillan is a savvy route runner with ideal formation versatility who can create plenty of YAC against a secondary that surrendered over 2,000 yards after the catch last season.
When Quinn wasn’t busy running man coverage at one of the highest rates in the league in 2023, he was probably in Cover 3, which he ran 37.7% of the time. This is good for McMillan who regularly gashed opposing defenses when facing zone coverage during his collegiate days at Washington.
The target volume may not be as clear cut for McMillan as it is for other sleeper options down the board, but the efficiency of those targets against this defense makes him an intriguing option in Week 1.
Taysom Hill, TE, New Orleans Saints
Many fantasy managers may be quick to roll their eyes when Taysom Hill is mentioned as a starting option at TE, but I really want you to hear me out.
Hill averaged 7.1 touches per game between his rushing and receiving ability in 2023, and the New Orleans Saints running back room is rough behind Alvin Kamara — who posted the worst rushing efficiency numbers of his career last season.
There is a real path where Hill finishes the season as the second-leading rusher on the team and will continue to get some highly valuable red-zone carries in this offensive scheme.
In a matchup against the Carolina Panthers which features second-year quarterback Bryce Young — who averaged just 145 passing yards in two games against the Saints in 2023 — Hill could see enough rushing work in a lower-scoring game to make him a viable top-12 option in Week 1.