The definition of “fantasy football sleepers” has evolved with time. Years ago, they were players who the general public had never heard of, let alone considered as a legitimate fantasy asset.
The days of the truly hidden gem are gone due to the ease of access to information, but that doesn’t mean the market is perfect. Here is a player for every NFC team that is being selected in the second half of fantasy drafts, if at all, but has far more potential than they are given credit for.
Fantasy Football Sleepers | NFC East
Dallas Cowboys: Jalen Tolbert, WR
The Cowboys’ offense is geared to offer value to three pass catchers. Last season, they ranked fourth in pass rate over expectation, and that was with them wanting to explore what Tony Pollard could be as a featured back.
They know what Ezekiel Elliott is/isn’t capable of, which has me thinking Dallas is a threat to lead the league in PROE this year. Brandin Cooks occupied the valuable WR2 role in this offense last season, and while he put up viable numbers, he posted the worst yards per route run season of his career.
MORE: 7 Fantasy Football Sleepers to Target in 2024
When I hit a sleeper, I want to be rewarded in a significant way, and Jalen Tolbert offers that potential. If a receiver like DeMario Douglas overachieves, how many weeks did it really matter for you? Cooks was a top-30 receiver on seven occasions last season — hitting in that fashion would matter in a big way.
Philadelphia Eagles: Defense/Special Teams
This side of the ball is clearly a weakness for the Eagles when it comes to their ability to win at a high level, but that doesn’t mean they can’t produce reasonable fantasy numbers in September.
The Jets are the only team over the past two years that generates pressure at a higher rate while blitzing at a lower rate than the Birds. That is a valuable skill and one that Vic Fangio’s Dolphins did as well as anyone in 2023 (fourth in pressure rate and 27th in blitz percentage).
With Fangio taking over the coordinator duties in Philly, it’s reasonable to expect more of the same, and I’ll take that profile against pocket passers every day of the week. Through the first four weeks of the season, the quarterbacks in line to face the Eagles scored 93.5% of their fantasy points last season with their arms.
Under no circumstances am I paying up for a defense, which means I’m taking one with my final pick on a regular basis. Give me the Eagles as one that will be available and has a path to return top-12 value prior to their Week 5 bye.
Washington Commanders: Jahan Dotson, WR
Ready for a scolding hot take? I’m not sure Jahan Dotson’s sophomore season was that much different than his rookie campaign that put him on our redraft radars.
Yes, the counting numbers tanked (49-518-4 last season in 17 games after 35-523-7 in 2022 in just 12 contests), but the profile kind of looks the same.
- 2022: 13.1% of targets came in the end zone
- 2023: 14.5% of targets came in the end zone
- 2022: 38.1% deep catch rate
- 2023: 43.8% deep catch rate
- 2022: 15.2% red-zone target share
- 2023: 15.5% red-zone target share
In some respects, Dotson was better last year despite the lack of production. I’m not saying that makes him bulletproof in 2024, but if Jayden Daniels is worth the hype, is Dotson not at least worthy of a speculative pick after the first 12 rounds?
For what it’s worth, seven different Tigers had a 45+ yard catch last season in a Daniels-led LSU aerial attack.
New York Giants: Tyrone Tracy Jr., RB
What if Devin Singletary is nothing more than ordinary? He’s spent all five of his seasons in offenses with a franchise QB under center (four with Allen and last year with Stroud) and considerable amounts of upside.
It’s safe to say that the Giants don’t check those boxes.
Despite the positive surrounding environment, Singletary averaged a career-low 0.19 PPR fantasy points per opportunity (targets + rush attempts), ranking him 31st of 35 qualifiers at the position.
The G-men spent a fifth-round pick on Tyrone Tracy Jr., a Boilermaker who showed some efficiency and versatility while in college. The rookie’s ADP is low because of the three-year contract that Singletary signed this offseason, and that, theoretically, gives him the leg-up role-wise early in the season.
That said, you’re not drafting Tracy for the beginning of the season before injuries and byes take a bite out of your lineup. You’re hoping for a role that carries volume down the stretch.
This is a low-risk, high-reward investment, which is exactly how I like to spend my picks in the double-digit rounds.
Fantasy Football Sleepers | NFC North
Detroit Lions: Jameson Williams, WR
In his first four games last season, Jameson Williams was on the field for the upstart Lions for just 38.3% of their offensive snaps. Following that (including the playoffs), his snap rate spiked to 62.5%.
The funniest thing happened; Detroit scored 30+ points in the majority of those games. The game-breaking athleticism isn’t a secret, but it also might not be defendable.
Cooks, DeVonta Smith, Jordan Addison, and Tank Dell all produced good-to-great numbers given their preseason expectations. They all owned an above-average aDOT (average depth of target) while playing alongside a top-10 receiver.
With an ADP well outside of the top 100 overall, Williams simply owning high one-week upside is enough to pay off picking him. I view that as his floor in 2024, with his ceiling being that of a player you consider for your Flex spot on a regular basis, especially given the largely weatherproof nature of Detroit’s schedule.
Green Bay Packers: MarShawn Lloyd, RB
Thanks to the massive 2022 season (2,053 yards and 12 touchdowns), the perception of Josh Jacobs is a little more favorable than his résumé suggests is wise. That was the only season of his career in which he’s played every game and saw him rack up 4.9 yards per carry. He’s been held under 4.1 in his three most recent seasons outside of that outlier year.
The Packers made the move to feature Jacobs after moving on from Aaron Jones and are pretty clearly trying to push the envelope to win now. On the surface, a four-year deal would suggest that Green Bay is significantly tied to its new RB1.
However, with a potential out after this season, the Packers are likely to be honest in their evaluation of their backfield. That gives MarShawn Lloyd more role upside than is being baked into his current ADP.
Jordan Love had essentially the same passer rating as Stroud in play-action situations, averaging more yards per pass on those plays than Patrick Mahomes.
Green Bay is going to continue trying to establish the run to open up opportunities for Love to thrive, and if Lloyd impresses early, he could carve out a niche in this upward-trending offense in rather short order.
Chicago Bears: Khalil Herbert, RB
It wasn’t long ago that fragility concerns were at the forefront of D’Andre Swift’s analysis, and now, after bell-cow season, has that storyline disappeared?
You could argue that a player seeing a spike in usage like he did last year (268 touches in 2023 after totaling 147 in 2022) is at risk of seeing his body break down a bit in the follow-up campaign.
RB Leaders in YPC Since 2021 (min. 350 carries)
We all like the Bears to be on the shortlist for the most improved offense in the NFL this season, and that puts them in position to drag along a running back for the ride.
Khalil Herbert lacks versatility, which is not ideal. Yet, with four players ahead of the RB position in Chicago’s target hierarchy, I’m not sure how much fantasy meat is being left on the bone via a limited skill set.
Minnesota Vikings: Ty Chandler, RB
We only have 129 NFL touches to judge Ty Chandler. And with only one collegiate season of 150+ touches, his evaluation requires some guesswork.
What we can say with confidence is that Chandler runs hard, or, at the very least, he’s good at falling forward.
Touchdown Ty Chandler!
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📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/vtmfEKvOLy pic.twitter.com/O8u6w4GMCV— NFL (@NFL) December 16, 2023
That may not seem like the sexiest of skills, but if Chandler can carve out a 10-15 touch role, he’s going to be on Flex radars. A season ago, 49 running backs had at least 100 carries, and Chandler ranked seventh among them in the percentage of carries that gained yardage.
For reference, here’s what the back end of that metric’s top 10 looked like:
7. Ty Chandler: 86.3%
8. Christian McCaffrey: 84.9%
9. De’Von Achane: 84.5%
10. Derrick Henry: 84.3%
I’m going to guess you didn’t think you’d see those four names on the same statistical list. Chandler isn’t on par with those fantasy superstars, but the fact that he’s been viable when given the opportunity is encouraging if you’re buying my argument that he could find himself on the plus side of a committee with time.
Even if you’re not with me, the contingent value is worth a dart throw at his current price. Jones has missed multiple games in three of the past four seasons, including six DNPs in 2023.
Fantasy Football Sleepers | NFC South
Atlanta Falcons: Tyler Allgeier, RB
From a profile standpoint, the idea of Tyler Allgeier is simple: I’ll never have to make a decision about playing him. If Bijan Robinson is healthy, I have better options. If Robinson were to get hurt, I’m penciling in Allgeier for 70% of his production and starting him.
Context: Robinson is my RB2 this season, and 70% of RB2 last season would have been 14.9 fantasy ppg, good for RB15 honors.
Situation aside, Allgeier might just be a decent player. Last season, he ranked 22nd among running backs in production compared to expectation, one slot behind what Robinson produced in the exact same environment.
I don’t doubt that Allgeier is an NFL-caliber running back, and I’d be comfortable playing him as a high-floor option if the situation presented itself.
New Orleans Saints: Derek Carr, QB
If you want to win a bar bet, simply ask someone to name the two quarterbacks who, since 2020, have seen over 40% of their passing fantasy points come via the deep pass.
Jalen Hurts is one of the answers and that tracks. He threatens defenses in a variety of ways and has a pair of elite playmakers.
Based on the heading, you know that Derek Carr is the other. Of course, part of that is that he isn’t a high-volume passer, but the soft touch on those long throws is something that largely goes unnoticed.
Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed are known quantities when it comes to home-run hitting — both of whom return and could be set for career years. But this is the part that has me interested in Superflex situations …
- 6’2” Cedrick Wilson Jr.
- 6’2” Marquez Callaway
- 6’5” A.T. Perry
Those are the next three receivers in my 2024 target projection for the Saints, and they’re all on the right side of 30 years old. Carr doesn’t go about accumulating fantasy points in the most exciting of fashions, but there is more potential than the public assumes. Sharp fantasy managers will take advantage of it.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Bucky Irving, RB
Bucky Irving cleared 1,000 rushing yards and 30 catches in each of his two seasons at Oregon, a versatile skill set that makes him an interesting fantasy option if given the chance.
Rachaad White produced for us last season, but is it that crazy to think that the Bucs could give their fourth-round pick some work? Of the 35 running backs with 150+ carries in 2023, White ranked 34th in percentage of attempts that picked up 5+ yards (28.3%, league RB average: 33.7%).
Rookie running backs burst on the scene when they’re given the opportunity to be on the field, either because of their raw talent or the incumbent struggles. In Tampa Bay, both of those boxes could be checked. It’ll cost you nothing to find out (over 30 kickers and D/ST currently hold a higher ADP than Irving).
Carolina Panthers: Bryce Young, QB
The Year 2 bump is clearly something you’re banking on if you’re going down this route in a Superflex setting. And when you combine that promise with the QB whispering capabilities of Dave Canales, things could get interesting as Carolina is routinely playing catch-up.
Canales was the quarterbacks coach in Seattle in 2022 and took over the offensive coordinator duties in Tampa Bay last season. You could, rather easily, argue that the quarterback who outperformed expectations by the most in each of those seasons came under the guiding hand of Canales.
Geno Smith had yet to develop consistency pre-Canales and was 15.3% worse in terms of fantasy points per game the year after he left.
Baker Mayfield, meanwhile, saw his fantasy production increase by 22.9% in Year 1 under Canales when compared to his three seasons prior.
The Panthers added a proven target earner in Diontae Johnson this offseason, giving Young a path to more consistency. He’s not going to be a starter in 1QB leagues, but outright dismissing him in deeper formats isn’t wise.
Fantasy Football Sleepers | NFC West
San Francisco 49ers: Isaac Guerendo, RB
Nobody is Christian McCaffrey, but Isaac Guerendo has a similar physical makeup and a level of versatility that would instantly become interesting should CMC go down (over 1,800 regular-season touches).
Guerendo was a wide receiver in high school and averaged 10.6 yards per reception last season at Louisville in addition to scoring 11 times on the ground. He has more draft capital investment than Elijah Mitchell, and the 49ers went out of their way to add depth at the position.
San Francisco closes the regular season with the Dolphins, Lions, and Cardinals. If McCaffrey is banged up and the team rests him down the stretch to prepare for the playoffs, we could be looking at a Flex option when it matters most in advantageous matchups.
Arizona Cardinals: Michael Wilson, WR
The 6’2” Michael Wilson averaged 14.9 yards per catch as a rookie and seems to be the forgotten man as the industry as a whole pencils the Cardinals in for a significant step forward offensively.
There’s no question that Wilson’s ceiling is the third option in the passing game, with Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride the alphas. However, if Arizona’s offense takes off the way we believe it can, an athletic third option could sneak into Flex radars by way of the big play.
Asking for consistent production is a bit optimistic, but 4-6 targets on a regular basis could easily happen. Wilson’s profile puts him in a position to make plays if given that level of opportunity.
Los Angeles Rams: Blake Corum, RB
Kyren Williams missed five games last season, and yet, he was handed the ball 20+ times in a league-high seven games. Yes, he’s a great player, but the Rams made it clear with the drafting of Blake Corum that burning out Williams again isn’t in their plans.
That’s not to say that Corum will hold standalone value in an offense that has three fantasy staples. Yet, I do believe he’ll get consistent usage with strong contingent upside.
If Corum can carve out a 6-10 touch role, there’s “break in case of emergency” Flex value should your roster fall a certain way. But you’re drafting him as one of the better handcuffs in the sport, targeting the lack of depth behind him (Boston Scott and Ronnie Rivers) as a driving factor.
Seattle Seahawks: Zach Charbonnet, RB
Among the 35 running backs with 150+ carries last season, Kenneth Walker III’s rate of gaining yardage was seventh lowest (78.5%, below the rates of a declining Elliott and Alexander Mattison).
Seattle’s starter is a home-run hitter, but the lack of consistency is a problem and could result in the team shifting some usage the way of Zach Charbonnet.
As a rookie, Charbonnet caught 82.5% of his targets, a level of versatility that gives him a path to Flex value. I don’t think it’s likely that he unseats Walker, but the 80+ pick discount is interesting, at the very least, for fantasy managers looking to throw darts at the position.