It’s now officially August. That means every NFL team’s training camp is underway and preseason games are about to begin. Most importantly, it means we are perilously close to our fantasy football drafts. The most impactful players are those who outperform their ADPs. With that in mind, here are my favorite sleepers for the 2024 fantasy season.
Fantasy Football Sleepers
The term “sleeper” stems from a time when there were actually players drafted whom many fantasy managers hadn’t heard of. In the information era (now), every manager in your league knows every player.
Every player listed below is someone you’ve heard of. So, if your first thought is, “he’s not a sleeper,” that may technically be true. Think of these as players who are going lower than I think they should.
With that in mind, let’s get to the sleepers.
Kirk Cousins, QB, Atlanta Falcons (ADP: QB18)
Is Kirk Cousins going to win you your league? Probably not. Will he finish above QB18? Almost certainly.
I understand the concern with Cousins. He’s 36 years old. He just changed teams. He’s coming off a torn Achilles. And his new team spent a first-round pick on his presumptive successor. Allow me to assuage you of those concerns.
Cousins may be old, but we’ve seen pocket passers be able to play until they’re in their early 40s. I don’t think that will be Cousins, but at 36, he’s not so old that you have to worry about a collapse this season.
The injury is probably the biggest culprit in suppressing Cousins’ ADP. He was fully cleared by the start of training camp. Obviously, we’d rather he hadn’t torn his Achilles. But even so, Cousins will be far enough removed from the injury that if the doctors say he’s healthy, we should believe them.
Most importantly, Cousins has never finished below QB18 in his career. He’s averaged at least 18 fantasy points per game (ppg) each of the past four seasons.
Cousins won’t post top-eight numbers, but he’ll likely be around the QB1/2 border once again. If you completely punt the QB position, look to Cousins with your final pick.
Devin Singletary, New York Giants (ADP: RB32)
Whenever you can get an NFL team’s starting running back outside the top-24 players, you have to at least consider it. By no means is Devin Singletary some amazing talent flying under the radar. The fact that he’s a veteran is why so many fantasy managers are unexcited about drafting him.
There’s no universe where Singletary becomes an RB1, but this is a starting NFL running back whose only real competition is a fifth-round rookie. Volume is king in fantasy football, especially at the running back position. Why exactly does the fantasy community not think Singletary, a proven producer, can be at least a high RB3?
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Last year, Singletary played over 70% of the snaps six times. He did it eight times the year before in Buffalo.
Most impressively, the Texans brought in Singletary to be a backup to Dameon Pierce. This was not a timeshare. Yet, Singletary managed to play his way not only into more touches but into taking Pierce’s job entirely.
From Week 9 through the end of last season, Singletary averaged 13.4 fantasy points per game — those are rock-solid RB2 numbers. I’ve got Singletary up at RB27, and even that feels low. If Singletary can merely replicate that level of production this season on the Giants, he will be well worth his cost in fantasy drafts.
Ty Chandler, RB, Minnesota Vikings (ADP: RB45)
It’s easy to figure out why Ty Chandler goes so late in fantasy drafts. Newly acquired Aaron Jones is going to be the starter and is a vastly superior talent. All of this is true. Yet, Chandler remains a sleeper. Why? Upside.
We’ve seen Chandler in a lead-back role before. He essentially took Alexander Mattison’s job over the second half of last season.
Granted, it’s a small sample size, but we did see Chandler post 24.7 fantasy points in the lone game where he exceeded a 70% snap share.
What if the soon-to-be 30-year-old Jones gets hurt again like he did last year? What if this is a pure committee with Chandler immediately able to provide RB3 value? What if Jones experiences a decline in ability and Chandler continues to improve?
There are multiple paths to Chandler being a useful back for your fantasy team. That’s the type of running back we want to take late in fantasy drafts.
Amari Cooper, Cleveland Browns (ADP: WR29)
Someone is going to have to explain to me how this makes any sense. Every podcast and Twitter account constantly talks about how Amari Cooper is undervalued. Meanwhile, his ADP holds steady as a WR3.
In 2017, an anomalously down year, Cooper finished as the WR31. That is the only season in which he has ever been worse than WR29. He’s averaged between 13.3 and 15.4 fantasy points per game every other season of his career.
Cooper averaged a career-best 17.4 yards per reception last year. His 14.1 aDOT (average depth of target) was the highest of his career. The same goes for his 2.35 yards per route run and 9.8 yards per target. All of those metrics ranked inside the top 15.
Deshaun Watson is a concern only to the extent that we’d much rather Joe Flacco still be there or for the team to turn to Jameis Winston (something that may happen anyway). Regardless, Cooper was just fine with Watson. He averaged 15.4 ppg in six games with Watson and the exact same figure in nine games without him.
The main knock on Cooper is that he doesn’t have WR1 upside. I agree with that. But how many WR3s have WR1 upside? Cooper has a high-WR2 upside, which is more than fine for a guy this cheap. Cooper is being drafted at his floor.
Diontae Johnson, Carolina Panthers (ADP: WR44)
Another guy you hear everyone talking about as a sleeper is Diontae Johnson. In another world, we may be talking about Johnson as an elite talent. Instead, he’s been trapped in bad offenses with UFL-level quarterback play.
Per ESPN Analytics: since 2021, new Panthers WR Diontae Johnson ranks first in the league in “Open Score”, measuring a WR’s “likelihood to complete a catch, conditional on if he were targeted.”
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— John Ellis (@1PantherPlace) June 19, 2024
Johnson is one of the best route runners in recent history. Last year, we saw Adam Thielen produce as an elite WR1 for half of the season. Johnson now steps into the unquestioned WR1 role for the Panthers. There’s a very real chance he sees a 30% target share.
The Panthers’ new head coach, Dave Canales, was a big part of Baker Mayfield’s revival last season. There’s reason to believe he can help propel Bryce Young to a new level. As the clear WR1, Johnson would be along for the ride.
Johnson is also being drafted at his floor. He has a WR2 upside at a WR4 price — the exact type of sleeper fantasy managers should target.
David Njoku, TE, Cleveland Browns (ADP: TE11)
I don’t quite understand why David Njoku is going so late. Last season, he averaged 12.6 fantasy points per game and finished as the overall TE7. Two years ago, he was the TE8.
The primary concern with Njoku is that he took off last season after Deshaun Watson went down. Njoku averaged 9.0 ppg in six games with Watson against 15.1 ppg in 10 games without him.
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This is a fair argument against Njoku. However, it’s very relevant that Njoku’s quality games came over the second half of the season. This is very much a “you can’t put the genie back in the bottle” thing.
Why would the Browns choose not to feature Njoku more after seeing what he can do? It’s not like there’s increased target competition from last season. Amari Cooper is locked in as the WR1. Jerry Jeudy and Elijah Moore are very weak WR2/3s.
Njoku should not be going behind Brock Bowers or Jake Ferguson. Either take an elite TE or wait for Njoku.