Is “fill-in-the-blank” player going to repeat their performance from last season? This is the perpetual question fantasy football managers must ask themselves. Every year, NFL players who broke out or busted are asked to answer the regression test as fantasy players decide whether to target them in drafts.
Who will get the fantasy football regression bug in 2023? Who will break into elite fantasy football talent thanks to positive regression? Below are three tight ends who are prime candidates for being helped or hurt by regression.
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Top Fantasy Football Regression Candidates at TE
George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers’ offense is one of the most complicated to navigate because of the surplus of weapons at their disposal. There was once a time when George Kittle could be relied upon for over 100 targets, making him a no-brainer top-five tight end.
George Kittle's photoshoot did not disappoint 😂😂
📷: @49ers pic.twitter.com/yS8Tm02HO4
— NFL (@NFL) July 10, 2023
Kittle may still be one of the best tight ends in the NFL. Between his yards after catch (YAC) and blocking abilities, there are very few players I’d rather have on my team. But for fantasy, he’s become one of the most volatile players at the tight end position.
If you made it to the fantasy football playoffs with Kittle last year, he likely helped you win, as he popped off for five touchdowns in Weeks 14 through 17, during the heart of the fantasy playoffs.
Incredibly, he has only surpassed that total once in his career, scoring six touchdowns in 2021. Before then, his TD record was stuck at five, marks he achieved in 2018 and 2019 when he was consistently hitting 100-target seasons.
Kittle finished 2022 with a whopping 11 touchdowns, nearly doubling his career record. Given the amount of competition for touches and his history, Kittle is unlikely to repeat that mark. Still, the TE position comes down to chasing touchdowns as it is, so Kittle is still worth targeting in drafts, particularly if he falls past ADP.
Pat Freiermuth, Pittsburgh Steelers
While the 49ers were a top-10 scoring offense in 2022, the Pittsburgh Steelers were in the bottom 10, scoring just over 18 points per game. Much of their lackluster scoring can be attributed to the fact that they only scored a touchdown just over half the time they were in the red zone.
When interviewed by the Locked on Steelers podcast, quarterback Kenny Pickett stated, “We’re more consistent in the red zone. It’s been great to see how competitive we’ve been in seven shots and winning a lot of the drills. Our defense is top-notch, so when we have a little bit of success against them, I hope we’ll fare alright in the season.”
And more consistent they’ll need to be for Pat Freiermuth to be a fantasy-relevant tight end. After a solid rookie season where he scored seven touchdowns, Freiermuth concluded the 2022 season with just two touchdowns, despite increasing his efficiency to nearly 12 yards per reception.
But with added offensive weapons and Pickett looking to take a second-year leap, Freiermuth is poised for a bounce-back season, where six total touchdowns should be easily attainable.
Hunter Henry, New England Patriots
After finishing 2021 as a top-10 fantasy tight end, Hunter Henry seemingly faded into obscurity in 2022, ending outside the top 20 in a down season for the New England Patriots.
When asked about his strong start to training camp, Henry retorted, “[I’m] just doing what I do. Trying to make plays when the ball presents itself. Trying to do what the team needs most.”
What do the Patriots need the most, you ask? Points.
In 2022, they were decidedly average, ranking seventeenth in points scored per game and ranked worse in red-zone scoring percentage, per Pro Football Reference.
That may have been enough to defeat the New York Jets, but it left New England third in the AFC East in points per game. With the Jets’ addition of Aaron Rodgers, the Patriots are in danger of being the worst offense in the division if they don’t take a step forward.
As for Henry, he averaged six touchdowns per season from the time he entered the league through the 2021 season. In 2022, he scored a measly two touchdowns. Despite the addition of Mike Gesicki, that number will increase, as Henry remains a prominent red-zone target in an offense that will certainly take a step forward with the addition of Bill O’Brien.