Missing out on an entire section of talented players can leave you scrambling during your fantasy football draft. To help you navigate your upcoming drafts, we’ll take a look at which fantasy football RBs to target using a tier-based approach.
Why use RB “tiers” rather than rankings for fantasy football?
Tier-based drafting is all about looking for maximum talent/production at the best price. In this case, we are looking at running backs and using tiers to find the better pick in fantasy football drafts at their given value.
Each position has a different point where there’s a considerable drop-off in talent and opportunity.
For running backs, it’s where we start to see players who will be in more of a committee approach rather than the traditional “three-down” approach we covet. However, those kinds of players are becoming more scarce each year. Teams are using more specialized players for specific niches. Also, we consider format. In a PPR format, where each reception is rewarded with fantasy points, the top pass-catching backs see increased value compared to traditional plodders and chain movers.
2021 Fantasy Football RB Tiers | Tiers 1-6
Note: The rankings used for these tiers are from the consensus rankings created by Senior Fantasy Analyst Eric Moody and Fantasy Analyst Tommy Garrett with 0.5 PPR scoring in mind and will fluctuate as we get closer to the season. Please check back regularly for any changes.
Tier 1: Christian McCaffrey and Dalvin Cook
The best of the best. The elite of the elite. The…guys that are good at football. You get my point.
There is a solid case — and one I won’t argue — that McCaffrey should be in a tier of his own. Since 2018, McCaffrey has averaged 27.1 points per game (35 active games) while recording 20+ points 28 times (80%). McCaffrey is the closest player to LaDainian Tomlinson at having this type of dominance at a fantasy level where commissioners are trying to rebalance how drafts are constructed because of him.
Since recovering from his torn ACL, Cook has shown that he is one of the top RBs in the NFL and fantasy football and deserves his elite-tier ranking. Averaging 22.9 ppg, Cook is the locked-in second pick in drafts. Despite missing four games over the last two years, Cook has still managed to rack up 3,572 total yards and 30 touchdowns.
Tier 2: Derrick Henry, Alvin Kamara, and Ezekiel Elliott
At some point, the workload will catch up for King Henry but don’t bet on it happening this year. If anything, he keeps getting better. His rushing yards have increased from 1,059 to 1,539 to 2,027 over the past three seasons, along with his rushing TDs going from 12 to 16 to 17. He enters 2021 as the odds-on favorite for the rushing crown.
This season, as the only real threat on the Saints’ offense, Kamara could set a career high in targets. Whether it is Taysom Hill or Jameis Winston, Kamara knows how to score points for fantasy managers.
Elliott is a combination of both Henry and Kamara in a way. In his five seasons, he’s finished as the RB2, RB12, RB5, RB3, and RB9, respectively, averaging 1,276 rushing yards, 391 receiving yards, and 11.2 total touchdowns per season. Just like we are doing for CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper, we need to cut Elliott a break for his post-Dak Prescott season.
Tier 3: Jonathan Taylor, Saquon Barkley, Aaron Jones, Nick Chubb
Taylor was knocking on top-three-pick territory in drafts this year before Carson Wentz’s and (equally as critical) Quentin Nelson’s foot surgeries. In Weeks 13-17 last season, he was the RB1 in fantasy with 125.3 points, racking up 651 rushing yards and 8 total touchdowns. If Wentz and Nelson are back on the shorter side of a 5-to-12-week recovery, Taylor could be a great value in the back end of Round 1.
Barkley remaining in Tier 3 of fantasy football RBs for 2021 speaks to his incredible talent and what we know he can do on the field. But how confident are you as the clock is ticking in the first round? Barkley is not guaranteed to see action in the first three weeks of the regular season — you are betting on him having an Adrian Peterson-type recovery.
Over the last two seasons, Jones has finished as the RB2 and RB5 while averaging 19.2 ppg (30 games). He finished as an RB1 in 43% of his games and as an RB2 or better in 76% of contests played. A.J. Dillon could steal some red-zone touches and third-down work but not enough to drop Jones’ 2021 outlook.
Among RBs who have played 15+ games since 2018, Chubb is third in yards (3,557), sixth in touchdowns (28), and fourth in yards per game (80.8). He averaged 17.3 ppg and 1.01 points per opportunity, even with Kareem Hunt on the roster in 2020. It just so happens he is playing behind arguably the best offensive line in the NFL this season, too.
Tier 4: Austin Ekeler, Antonio Gibson, Najee Harris, Joe Mixon, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Did you miss out on Kamara because you had a later pick? Don’t worry. Just take the 92% version of him in Ekeler, who now has an upgraded OL and one of Kamara’s former coaches (Joe Lombardi) calling the plays.
This tier is all about breakout RBs for fantasy football in 2021. Perhaps you like the rookies with all the hype — go with Harris and his 300-touch upside. Or take a shot on one of two second-year players with top-eight upside in Gibson and Edwards-Helaire.
Gibson is a touchdown machine who will see more work in the passing game, which we know he can handle from his work at Memphis. As for Edwards-Helaire, everything you loved about him that drove his price into the top six or eight picks is all still there. Better yet, he knows the system, has little to no competition, and the OL was revamped entirely.
As for Mixon, all the guy has to do is stay on the field. It’s really that simple. Entering 2020, Mixon was fresh off the heels of back-to-back seasons with 1,100 yards rushing and 280 yards receiving while scoring 8 or more touchdowns. Mixon ended the season as the RB49 with 99.6 PPR points. But in points per game, he was the RB10 with 16.6 in his six games. He is back to being healthy and, as an RB2, could be a steal in upcoming drafts.
Tier 5: D’Andre Swift, Chris Carson, J.K. Dobbins, David Montgomery, and Miles Sanders
I do not question the talent in this tier of RBs, but each gives me more questions than answers at times for their value in fantasy football.
For as dynamic a rusher and pass catcher that Swift is, can he return value on a team that could struggle mightily for scoring chances and has a backup in Jamaal Williams that will see nearly 200 touches?
Who wins in Seattle? Russell Wilson with new OC Shane Waldron, and we get a more pass-friendly offense? Or does head coach Pete Carroll, who stated they want to rush more in 2021? I love Carson’s value in drafts, but I am concerned.
Dobbins will see a reduction in his overall efficiency after rushing for 6.9 yards per carry and scoring 7 times in his last six games. But how far will he fall? Going in the back end of the second to early third round, I think his teammate Gus Edwards might be the better value nearly six and a half rounds later.
Which Montgomery are we getting? The one who could disappoint us, or the one that was the RB2 from Weeks 11 through 17? Also, how will the inevitable change at both QB and likely HC affect his production?
There is no disputing Sanders’ skills, but will the committee approach of Philly’s offense allow him to outperform his current draft position?
Tier 6: Josh Jacobs, Myles Gaskin, Mike Davis, Darrell Henderson, Kareem Hunt
Coming off a 306-touch season, it’s unlikely Jacobs hits that mark in 2021 following the addition of Kenyan Drake in the offseason. While still a mid-RB2 in fantasy football rankings, his chances of top-10 status are likely gone for 2021.
Gaskin was ninth in touches per game at 18.3 and was tied for sixth in targets at 4.7 and on pace for 1,000 yards and 70 receptions. But the growing concern of a committee approach with Salvon Ahmed and Malcolm Brown has me questioning my bullishness on Gaskin all offseason.
At RB22, Davis could be a smash pick at his current ADP, but we saw him slow down last season as the effects of being an RB1 took their toll. He could be looking at even more work in 2021.
After the unfortunate loss of Cam Akers (torn Achilles) for the season, Henderson’s fantasy football RB ranking shot up. From Weeks 2 through 7, Henderson served as the Rams’ RB1, averaging 16.2 opportunities, 85.9 yards, and 0.7 touchdowns per game. Henderson is quickly becoming my favorite target in this tier of fantasy football RBs for 2021.