We are now five weeks into the 2022 fantasy football season and starting to get a better idea of what these teams are. Fantasy decisions will only get more difficult from here on out, so let’s take a look at our RB start/sit Week 8 plays. Before you set your lineups, be sure to check out our complete Week 8 fantasy football rankings.
Week 8 Fantasy Football RB Start ’ems
Raheem Mostert, Miami Dolphins (at DET)
We’re just about through half a season, and 30-year-old “injury-prone” Raheem Mostert has not only played every game, but he’s seeing workhorse volume. We can’t predict injury, but we can make reasonable predictions on matchup quality, and Mostert has a good one in Week 8.
The Lions allow the second-most rushing yards per game at 129.8. Opposing rushers average 5.3 yards per carry against them. They’ve given up 12 rushing touchdowns on the season already. With this in mind, I anticipate I will be recommending Mostert’s fantasy points higher on Underdog Fantasy this week.
The Dolphins are small road favorites in Detroit. With an exclusively positive game script against the Steelers last week, Mostert carried the ball 16 times for 79 yards. Since taking over as the clear lead back in Week 4, Mostert is averaging 15.75 carries per game. Mostert also saw a season-high five targets last week, catching four for 30 yards and a touchdown.
Playing an average of 70% of the snaps the past four weeks, there is no timeshare anymore. This is entirely Mostert’s backfield.
Fantasy managers may look at Mostert’s game log and really only see two quality performances (19.2 PPR fantasy points in Week 5 and 20.9 last week), but the volume has been there. In those two weeks, he reached his ceiling due to finding the end zone. I think he gets there again this week. Start him.
Tony Pollard, Dallas Cowboys (vs. CHI)
This is the second consecutive week recommending Tony Pollard as a start. Last week, I’d say it was a hit, but more like a single than a home run. Pollard carried the ball 12 times for 83 yards and caught two passes for 26 yards.
The real issue was Ezekiel Elliott looked at his buddy Tony and said, “Thanks for all the hard work, but I’ve got it from here,” and punched in two short touchdowns he didn’t deserve.
In Dak Prescott’s first start back, Pollard not only had his best receiving day since Week 2, but he finally played ahead of Elliott. Pollard played a career-high (with Zeke active) 65% of the snaps. Elliott’s 49% snap share was the lowest of his career. Could the Cowboys finally be doing what so many of us have called for since 2020?
MORE: Fantasy Injury IR Updates Week 8
Regardless, we know two things:
1) Pollard is good at football
2) The Bears can’t stop the run.
Chicago is allowing 4.7 yards per carry and has surrendered 10 touchdowns this season. They allow the seventh-most fantasy points to running backs. They’re also vulnerable to receiving backs, with opponents targeting the RB position 22.5% of the time against them.
The Cowboys should once again experience positive game script facing a Bears defense due for a letdown after their massive upset win in New England. Expect another game of ball control and defense featuring a whole lot of Pollard. And hey, maybe head coach Mike McCarthy will let Pollard get the short touchdown in this one.
Week 8 Fantasy Football RB Sit ’ems
David Montgomery, Chicago Bears (at DAL)
Don’t let David Montgomery’s Week 7 stat line fool you — he’s nothing more than a glorified Brian Robinson. What I mean by that is you will get somewhere in the range of 40-60 rushing yards, and you hope he falls into the end zone. That’s exactly what Montgomery did against the Patriots.
Montgomery’s Week 7 touchdown pushed him into double digits for just the third time this season. Outside of his anomalous 122-yard effort against the Packers, Montgomery is basically touchdown or bust.
Last week, he played a season-low 56% of the snaps. The Bears essentially rotated Montgomery and Khalil Herbert each series. More concerning is Montgomery’s lack of passing-game usage. That’s what usually buttressed his floor.
Montgomery has maintained a consistent 12% target share the past two seasons. While that’s technically his target share this season, too, the past two weeks have been a different story. Montgomery has just one total target over that span. If he’s not catching passes, he becomes extremely TD dependent.
The Cowboys aren’t really in the business of giving up fantasy points to running backs…or points in general. They allow just 17.3 ppg to the position, the second-fewest in the league. And don’t even bother trying to throw to RBs against them (not that the Bears would do it anyway). Just 12.6% of the receiving yards allowed by the Cowboys have gone to running backs.
The Bears just had the win of their season on the road in New England. Now they travel to Dallas as heavy underdogs once again. This offense is likely in for a rough week, and Montgomery has neither the volume nor the talent to overcome it.
Damien Harris, New England Patriots (at NYJ)
It’s hard to predict what Bill Belichick will do. That’s part of what makes him the greatest coach of all time. All we can do is react to the data in front of us. That data tells us Damien Harris is now a backup RB.
Prior to Harris straining his hamstring, he was on the wrong side of about a 60-40 split with Rhamondre Stevenson. While Harris was out, Stevenson was a 90% snap-share running back. Upon Harris’ return, I expected a return to more of a committee.
It started out that way, with Stevenson starting and Harris taking the second series. But that quickly gave way to what we’ve been seeing — a whole lot of Stevenson.
MORE: Will the Patriots Trade Damien Harris This Week?
Harris played just 17% of the snaps compared to 77% for Stevenson. It goes without saying that fantasy managers can’t be starting any player on the field for less than 25% of the snaps.
As if that isn’t reason enough to sit Harris this week, the Jets have been a surprisingly solid defense this year. They allow just 21.5 ppg to the RB position, the 12th-fewest in the league.
Harris is a zero in the passing game, with just a 7% target share on the season. He’s not getting goal-line work anymore, and he’s barely on the field against an above-average defense. Sit him until further notice.