There’s no doubt fantasy football seems trivial in the wake of what happened to Damar Hamlin on Monday night. It was difficult to even write this article as my brain is preoccupied with wanting to know he’s okay. For better or worse, the NFL will play games this week. Let’s take a look at our RB start/sit Week 18 plays. Before setting your lineups, check out our complete Week 18 fantasy football PPR rankings.
Week 18 Fantasy Football RB Start ’ems
Zack Moss, Indianapolis Colts (vs. HOU)
The Colts have devolved into the worst team in football. And the last thing you typically want is a running back on a team that can’t score.
It’s Week 18. While plenty of players are competing for their jobs next year, plenty of others just want to make it through the game unscathed. In the wake of the terrifying scene involving Damar Hamiln on Monday night, that mindset is likely even more pronounced in the season’s final week.
For the Colts, a guy like Zack Moss is playing for a role on a team next year. He has every incentive to give it his all, as he’s been doing since taking over as the lead back for an injured Jonathan Taylor.
MORE: Fantasy Football Sleepers Week 18
Moss has carried the ball 24, 12, and 15 times in his last three games. He’s averaging 4.3 yards per carry. He’s averaging a snap share over 60% and is the clear goal-line back (although the Colts are rarely near the end zone).
This week, the Colts have a home game against the Texans’ league-worst run defense. The Texans allow 3.2 more fantasy points per game to running backs than the second-worst defense. Running backs average 5.2 ypc and 141.4 rushing yards per game against them. Both marks are the worst in the NFL.
If there were ever a week for Moss to reach 100 yards and find the end zone, it’s this one. I’m curious to see how high his rushing projection is on Underdog Fantasy. Start him.
AJ Dillon, Green Bay Packers (vs. DET)
I’ve been reluctant to include AJ Dillon as a start for the past month because I felt like he was too clear of a start. But in Week 18, it’s tough to find the right players to recommend, given the slew of motivation concerns. One thing we know for sure is the Packers are motivated.
The Packers have a win-and-in game against the Lions on Sunday night. It may be a de facto playoff game on both sides, but unless the Rams beat the Seahawks, the Lions may just be playing spoiler.
Dan Campbell is a true leader of men and will get his team amped up regardless. However, it’s easy to imagine players feeling deflated if the Seahawks win. As much as these men are true warriors and consummate professionals, there’s no way they can bring the same energy if they know they’ve been eliminated from postseason contention. Unfortunately, that is the outcome I expect.
After not scoring a touchdown from Weeks 2-11, Dillon has now scored six times in his last five games, including one in every game. The Lions’ run defense had been quite strong for a while but fell off a bit the past two weeks. Although the Bears only rushed for 68 yards last week, that was due to a negative game script. They averaged 5.6 ypc.
For Dillon, it’s about one thing — touchdowns. When the Packers get near the goal line, in comes Dillon. Aaron Rodgers should be able to create plenty of scoring opportunities this week, allowing Dillon to, once again, punch in a short touchdown.
Week 18 Fantasy Football RB Sit ’ems
Tony Pollard, Dallas Cowboys (at WAS)
Tony Pollard missed last Thursday’s game with a thigh injury. While we can’t say for certain how serious it is, I’m reasonably confident he would’ve played had the Cowboys not been two-touchdown favorites over a Titans team playing a glorified preseason contest. Essentially, I believe the Cowboys rested a dinged-up Pollard because they could afford to do so.
This week, I think Pollard returns to action. But this is still a player who may not quite be 100%.
The Commanders allow the third-fewest fantasy points to running backs. They’ve allowed the second-fewest rushing touchdowns this season. More importantly, though, is the fact that I don’t think Pollard plays the entire game.
The only motivation for the Cowboys to try this week is in the hopes the Giants beat the Eagles. If that happens, a Cowboys win would catapult them to the No. 1 overall seed in the NFC.
The Giants will likely rest their starters this week, as they are locked into the No. 6 seed. With the Cowboys and Eagles playing at the same time, Mike McCarthy will undoubtedly be keeping a close eye on how the other game is going.
If the Eagles, who will likely bring back Jalen Hurts to ensure a win, pull ahead by a large margin, McCarthy may opt to pull his starters at halftime. How much is one half of Pollard against an elite run defense worth? It feels risky to find out. I would sit him if you can.
Raheem Mostert, Miami Dolphins (vs. NYJ)
Last week, Raheem Mostert had a monster fantasy game, totaling 91 yards and a touchdown. The problem is it was largely a mirage. Nearly all of Mostert’s production came through the air. He caught all eight of his targets for 62 yards and a touchdown. Those numbers are season highs by a wide margin.
If not for the anomalous increase in receiving work, Mostert’s usage was concerning. His snap share continued to decline, losing more work to Jeff Wilson Jr. Mostert’s 42% snap share was quite literally his lowest of the season.
He handled single-digit carries for a second consecutive week. Mostert hasn’t rushed for a touchdown in five weeks.
The Jets allow the ninth-fewest fantasy points to running backs. This is a tough matchup for a running back on the wrong side of a timeshare on a team starting its third-string quarterback. Sit Mostert.