We are now nine weeks into the 2022 fantasy football season and have a better idea of what these teams are. Fantasy decisions will only get more difficult from here on out, so let’s take a look at our RB start/sit Week 10 plays. Before you set your lineups, be sure to check out our complete Week 10 fantasy football rankings.
Week 10 Fantasy Football RB Start ’ems
Jamaal Williams, Detroit Lions (at CHI)
It’s no secret that D’Andre Swift is not 100%. That couldn’t have been more evident last week when he played a career-low 16% of the snaps.
Meanwhile, Jamaal Williams played a season-high 61% of the snaps. He also saw a season-high 24 carries, which he turned into 81 yards. The only problem with Williams’ production last week was he didn’t score. That’s been his game all season, though.
This week, the Lions face a Bears defense allowing the sixth-most fantasy points to running backs. More specifically, they surrender a ton of rushing touchdowns, having allowed 15 on the season.
MORE: Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer Week 10
Williams’ 4.3 yards per carry match a career high. The Bears also allow the sixth-most rushing yards per game. Taking the higher on Williams’ rushing yards on Underdog Fantasy seems like a good move this week.
Everything about this game points to Williams having success on the ground. Given the opponent, I think he’s a good bet to find the end zone.
Interestingly, Williams has scored in four games this season, but never only once. Fantasy managers will surely take one touchdown this week, but if he can continue this pattern of only scoring two or zero, we’ll take that as well.
David Montgomery, Chicago Bears (vs. DET)
On the other side of the same game, we have the flailing David Montgomery. As a guy who needs volume, it’s a problem when he doesn’t get it. Montgomery has exceeded 15 carries just once all season.
Historically, Montgomery has always been effective as a receiver. That’s changed this season. Montgomery’s target has dipped to around 10%, but the real problem is it’s 10% of a much smaller overall pie, with Justin Fields averaging just 20.7 pass attempts per game. As a result, Montgomery has become very touchdown dependent.
Fortunately, the matchup couldn’t be better. The Lions allow the fourth-most fantasy points to running backs, and they’ve allowed 13 rushing scores on the season.
Another positive sign is Montgomery’s rebounding snap share. He’s now played 70% of the snaps in consecutive weeks. Montgomery is a good bet to score a touchdown this week, which would put him firmly in RB2 territory. Start him.
Week 10 Fantasy Football RB Sit ’ems
AJ Dillon, Green Bay Packers (vs. DAL)
I know what you’re thinking, “But no one was starting AJ Dillon anyway.” Correct. However, with Aaron Jones banged up, fantasy managers may be enticed by Dillon as a possible workhorse or, at the very least, an increased role. I must caution you against that. Dillon is a sit regardless of Jones’ status.
Dillon hasn’t been great, averaging just 4.0 ypc. He hasn’t scored since Week 1 and is averaging just 2.7 targets per game. He’s a TD-or-bust RB3 who doesn’t score touchdowns.
It’s not all Dillon’s fault, though. The Packers’ offensive line has zero interest in blocking for him. He averages a mere 1.2 yards per before contact, the sixth-lowest rate amongst backs with at least 50 carries.
MORE: Week 10 RB Fantasy Football Rankings
Of course, Dillon could do a better job at making defenders miss, something he does at a 10% clip. Jones is operating under the same set of circumstances, but he’s making defenders miss at a 35% rate.
Finally, we have the matchup. The Cowboys are an elite defense. They allow the fourth-fewest fantasy points to running backs and have surrendered just four rushing touchdowns all season.
The Packers are a floundering offense with a serious dearth of offensive weapons and a washed, soon-to-be 39-year-old quarterback. Once an offense you desperately wanted pieces of, avoid the Packers, and Dillon, in particular.
Melvin Gordon III and Latavius Murray, Denver Broncos (at TEN)
When we last saw the Broncos, both Melvin Gordon III and Latavius Murray were posting RB2 numbers in London against the Jaguars. Don’t chase that production this week.
This is an awful spot for both Broncos’ backs. First, we have the bye-week addition of Chase Edmonds, who is going to play. How much remains to be seen, but perhaps the Week 7 Gordon-Murray-Mike Boone split could be prescient. In that game, it was a 50-40-10 split.
Gordon and Murray were already TD-or-bust RB3s. Gordon is averaging 3.5 ypc and Murray just 3.7 ypc since joining Denver. Neither is efficient nor is this offense. Add a third back to the mix, and it’s just a nightmare situation.
Second, we have the matchup. The Titans are a pass-funnel defense. They allow the sixth-fewest fantasy points to running backs. The way to beat them is through the air.
This means one of two things. Either the Broncos are aware of this and go pass-heavy, limiting the backs’ usage. Or, they’re not and go run-heavy, resulting in suboptimal offensive plays where they struggle to move the ball. Regardless of the scenario, it’s bad for the running backs.
Gordon and Murray will once again need to punch in short touchdowns to be fantasy-relevant. I completely understand if banking on that is better than the alternative. But if you can avoid low-upside starts like Gordon and Murray, you should do so.