Dodging landmines like Austin Ekeler in the early rounds of your fantasy football draft can make or break your season.
The core of your fantasy team is going to be compromised of your first eight picks. Missing on one or a multitude of those picks can be catastrophic for your fantasy team.
Here are a few RBs that could fall into the bust category by failing to meet the production their current draft capital demands.
Fantasy Football RB Busts
For those of you who are a bit unfamiliar with the term bust in the realm of fantasy football, it can simply be described as a player who failed to meet expectations in a given season.
For example, Jonathan Taylor finished as the RB33 overall in full-PPR formats, while Devin Singletary finished as the RB32 in 2023. So, why was Taylor considered a bust last year while Singletary wasn’t?
Much of this has to do with the expectations fantasy managers had for Taylor heading into last year, as he was selected as a top-10 running back in many fantasy drafts.
Taylor’s RB33 finish means his production came in far lower than what was expected — making him a bust. Singletary on the other hand, had fairly low expectations heading into the season, which makes his RB32 finish far more in line with his projections.
James Cook, RB, Buffalo Bills
Those fantasy managers who were skeptical if the Buffalo Bills would ever truly feature a running back with Josh Allen around got their answer with a great year from James Cook in 2023. His 1,122 rushing yards with an additional 445 receiving yards on 44 receptions and six total TDs was good for a RB12 fantasy finish in full-PPR formats.
Cook’s rushing and receiving yardage at the RB position both ranked inside the top 10, and he was among the top backs in the league with 5.6 yards per touch, which is impressive considering his above-average volume last season.
Yet, Cook’s usage in the red zone — and particularly inside the 5-yard line — is worth mentioning when trying to determine if he can repeat his fantasy production from a season ago. He actually saw seven few carries from inside the 5-yard line than Latavius Murray. Additionally, Allen had 14 carries of his own from this range last year.
This is the part where I mention the addition of rookie RB Ray Davis this year — a very physical runner with great contact balance and burst.
Will Cook be the leading ball carrier again for the Bills in 2024? Yes, I believe so. Yet, Allen’s presence and a potential upgrade at the RB2 spot on the roster could limit Cook’s fantasy upside this season.
Kenneth Walker III, RB, Seattle Seahawks
When your carries, rushing yards, and yards per carry all drop from your rookie to sophomore campaign, it can be hard to believe a breakout season is on the horizon in Year 3. Now, combine those downward trends with the presence of a talented backup tailback, and we could have the recipe for a fantasy disaster.
Kenneth Walker III Fantasy Production
- 2023: 905 rushing yards, 29 receptions, 259 yards, and 9 TDs (RB19 overall)
- 2022: 1,050 rushing yards, 27 receptions, 165 yards, and 9 TDs (RB18 overall)
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Kenneth Walker III has finished as a top-20 fantasy back in full-PPR formats in both years of his young career, but the fact that he lost 141 total touches to Zach Charbonnet last season should be a bit worrisome to fantasy managers.
There is no denying Walker’s physical talent and flashes of big-play potential built into a three-down frame, but the fact the Michigan State product failed to significantly outplay Charbonnet in 2023 does bring some concern with a new coaching staff that didn’t draft either of these players since they could simply choose to utilize the most effective back on a weekly basis.
Unfortunately, Walker feels like he is currently being drafted closer to his ceiling than his floor. His ADP at No. 50 overall as the RB17 off the board has me wanting to pass on Walker this year.
James Conner, RB, Arizona Cardinals
There is no denying that James Conner’s tenure with the Arizona Cardinals has produced surprisingly positive fantasy results over the last three years.
James Conner’s Fantasy Production With the Cardinals
- 2023: 1,040 rushing yards, 27 receptions, 165 receiving yards, 9 total TDs (RB18)
- 2022: 782 rushing yards, 46 receptions, 300 receiving yards, 8 total TDs (RB19)
- 2021: 752 rushing yards, 37 receptions, 375 receiving yards, 18 total TDs (RB5)
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Conner’s 5.0 yards per carry, 2.0 yards after contact per attempt, and 27 broken tackles were among some of the best marks for running backs with 200+ carries in 2023. His contact balance and burst suggest there was no fall-off in his performance last year at 28 years old.
Unfortunately, the team invested third-round NFL Draft capital in FSU RB Trey Benson, which certainly could see Conner ceding quite a bit of work to the rookie in 2024. Benson is an explosive runner who has three-down upside, so it will likely only be a matter of time before he’s afforded an expanded role to see exactly what they have in him past this year.
Conner’s ADP at No. 67 overall in the sixth round as the RB22 off the board isn’t crazy expensive, but using a pick on an aging back in the final year of his contract who got significant competition this offseason makes him a bit too risky to trust my RB2 in 2024.