Fantasy football busts happen every year, in every round and at every position. Avoiding them isn’t an exact science, but by digging deep into statistical profiles, we give ourselves a better chance to identify these players and give ourselves an edge over our competition.
Here are some running backs at every price level that I’m steering clear of at their current cost. The only true mistake you can make is crossing a player completely off of your cheat sheet. There’s a buying price for everyone, but these five would certainly need to fall down the draft board to have my attention.
Fantasy Football Busts: Running Backs
De’Von Achane, Miami Dolphins (ADP: RB8)
Fantasy seasons are often determined by outliers, and rostering one of them is great, but the next season is where those players are dangerous.
Can the player repeat their performance? What does regression look like? How different will the role and ADP be after a surprisingly productive season?
The best fantasy football managers will take this case-by-case. Brock Purdy is a quarterback who will require a deep dive, and we’ll get there with time, but no player stokes the regression flames entering 2024 quite like De’Von Achane.
Working on some running back #FantasyFootball analysis …
Borderline impossible to overstate what Achane did last season.
(fantasy stats / expected fantasy stats) pic.twitter.com/QzkGiCzji7
— Kyle Soppe (@KyleSoppePFN) July 14, 2024
In terms of expectation, what Achane did (minimum 100 carries) last season was as impressive as anything we’ve seen in the past 15 seasons. Repeating that level of efficiency is close to impossible to do and even harder to project, making the Achane outlook one based on trying to get an understanding of two things:
- His 2024 role
- How much to regress his per-touch numbers
Over the past decade, the 10 most efficient RB seasons have been followed up by a campaign that saw them produce at 78.3% the rate of the year prior. That would still put Miami’s sophomore at 20.7% over expectation, a strong number, but a meaningful decline from the 54.2% rate he gave managers in 2023.
If we extend Achane’s numbers to 17 games and give him an extra two touches per game (about as high as I’m willing to go given the variety of options on this offense and the addition of Jaylen Wright), he projects for a tick under 16 PPR ppg, a number that would have ranked him as RB11 in 2023.
Does Achane’s production fade off if he plays all 17 games? Do defenses enter 2024 more prepared to stop this Dolphins running attack? What happens if the game script doesn’t play in Miami’s favor as often as it did last season (third most time spent last season with a double-digit lead)?
There are more paths for failure than profit when you take Achane in the second round. If you’re in a deeper league, I don’t mind selecting the QB1 in your rankings ahead of him.
The case can be made for Brandon Aiyuk if you’re looking for a receiver, and even if you want to select a running back, the projectable floor of Derrick Henry, now with the Baltimore Ravens, is more appealing to me at this point in the draft.
Josh Jacobs, Green Bay Packers (ADP: RB12)
“We’ll see. Philosophically, no matter who the runner is, we like to platoon those guys, whether it’s two guys or three … it allows them to stay fresh throughout the duration of the season … it’s a violent position.”
That’s a logical thought and a good reminder that head coaches aren’t fantasy managers. Matt LaFleur gave that answer this offseason when addressing his backfield and has me treading with caution in regards to Green Bay’s starter, especially after adding depth in the draft by way of MarShawn Lloyd.
READ MORE: Fantasy Football Sleepers 2024
Thanks to the massive 2022 season (2,053 yards and 12 TDs), the perception of Jacobs is a little more favorable than his résumé suggests is wise. That was the only season of his career in which he’s played every game and saw him rack up 4.9 yards per carry (he’s been held under 4.1 in his three most recent seasons outside of that outlier year).
With quotes like that from LaFleur, depth at the position, and a developing base game — this isn’t the profile of a mid-fourth-round pick.
Isiah Pacheco and James Cook are being drafted in the same range, two options that I have ranked a tier ahead of Jacobs. Joe Mixon isn’t exciting, but, for me, he’s essentially the same player and is going 12-15 picks later.
Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints (ADP: RB17)
Alvin Kamara toted the rock 180 times last season and didn’t rip off a run of more than 17 yards. Do you remember that league-swinging performance on Christmas Day 2020? That was the last time he carried a gain of more than 30 yards.
Yards per carry (carries per rushing TD)
- 2017: 6.1 YPC (TD every 15 carries)
- 2018: 4.6 YPC (TD every 13.9 carries)
- 2019: 4.7 YPC (TD every 34.2 carries)
- 2020: 5.0 YPC (TD every 11.7 carries)
- 2021: 3.7 YPC (TD every 60 carries)
- 2022: 4.0 YPC (TD every 111.5 carries)
- 2023: 3.9 YPC (TD every 36 carries)
Are you drafting Alvin Kamara in fantasy this season? 👀
(via @Saints)
— Rotoworld Football (@rotoworld_fb) June 16, 2024
Labeling Kamara as a “bust” might be a little aggressive due to the floor that he carries in PPR formats. However, his name carries thoughts of elite upside that simply isn’t there anymore.
He’s coming off boards in the fifth round, a dead zone for me when it comes to the RB position. I’m taking Terry McLaurin, Jayden Reed, or Evan Engram in this range and doing it with confidence.
Devin Singletary, New York Giants (ADP: RB31)
Devin Singletary is “fine,” and normally, “fine” is justifiable. I’m just not sure it is in this offensive environment.
Singletary was able to provide surprising value last season, thanks in part to ranking 14th at the position in yards per carry before contact.
In the right spot, he could repeat his success from last season and prove to be a reasonable ninth-round pick. But what about the 2024 Giants has us thinking that it is “the right spot”?
I tend to think that yards per carry before contact is a hybrid skill. That is, it’s impacted by the shiftiness of the running back and the blocking of the offensive line. There’s no denying that Saquon Barkley is a better talent, and it took every ounce of his skill to rank 27th in the category (0.98 ypc before contact).
In the middle third of the draft, you’re paying for the value of volume in Singletary, but I think there are better ways to do that. Brian Robinson Jr. is going a handful of picks later, and both of the primary threats in Cleveland are being drafted 15-20 picks after Singletary.
In short, you’re paying for the only encouraging portion of Singletary’s profile without access to much more. Fifth-round rookie Tyrone Tracy Jr. (6.3 yards per carry at Purdue last season) looms should the G-men turn their focus to 2025, adding risk to a player that I don’t think offers much potential reward.
Austin Ekeler, Washington Commanders (ADP: RB32)
At this point, is Austin Ekeler being drafted solely because of his résumé? The veteran showed significant signs of decline last season with the Los Angeles Chargers (3.5 ypc) and scored just six times on his 230 touches.
If the efficiency is a thing of the past and the scoring role is no longer his (Robinson’s average rushing touchdown for his career is 5.9 yards), what is Ekeler’s route to earning Flex consideration in any format?
We were told that Antonio Gibson would handle the passing-down work in Washington’s offense last season, but Robinson finished with better receiving numbers. This team feels as if it has its franchise quarterback in place, so why not embrace the 25-year-old Robinson as a bell cow?
This is more of a bet on Robinson than against Ekeler, though I don’t think this offense, with a questionable defense and a mobile QB, can sustain two Flex options at the RB position. In addition to Robinson, I like the idea of taking a chance on Javonte Williams or Tyjae Spears around pick 100.
