With rushing so prevalent at the quarterback position in modern football, the era of the late-round QB is over. Even so, that doesn’t mean we all need to prioritize spending early draft capital on a quarterback. If you wait until the middle rounds or later to draft one, here are three of my favorite QB sleepers for 2024 fantasy football drafts.
Quarterback Fantasy Football Sleepers
The term “sleeper” stems from a time when there were actually players drafted that many fantasy managers hadn’t heard of. In the information era (now), every manager in your league knows who every player is.
Every player listed below is someone you’ve heard of. So, if your first thought is, “he’s not a sleeper,” that may technically be true. Think of these sleepers more as players going lower than I think they should. With that in mind, let’s get to the QB sleepers.
Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals (ADP: QB7)
It’s probably a bit of a stretch to call the overall QB7 a sleeper, but I do think Kyler Murray is being slept on a bit this season.
There are several fantasy quarterbacks who look like pretty good options this season. That includes the next two guys on this list, both of whom go much later than Murray. The difference is those guys don’t possess overall QB1 upside. Murray does.
Have we forgotten just who Murray is? In his career, he’s never averaged fewer than 18.2 fantasy points per game. Over his first four seasons, he finished as the QB11, QB3, QB4, and QB7, respectively.
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In 2022, Murray averaged 18.9 fantasy ppg over 11 games, finishing as the overall QB7. Last season, in eight games, he averaged the exact same 18.9 points per game. I would argue that’s even more impressive, given how much he looked like himself in his first games back after recovering from a torn ACL.
Last season, Murray ran for 33 and 51 yards in each of his first two games back. If he was doing that just after returning from knee injury, imagine how much more effective he will be another year removed.
I have Murray ranked as my QB6, and I am very tempted to push him ahead of Anthony Richardson up to QB5. Fantasy managers should enter drafts with the goal of specifically drafting Murray this season.
Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders (ADP: QB11)
If you don’t end up with Murray, your focus should shift to Jayden Daniels. When I say focus, I mean laser focus. Not like a drone strike in Call of Duty. More like a precision sniper shot in Halo.
It’s not Daniels and a couple of guys around him. It’s specifically Daniels.
I currently have Daniels ranked as my QB11, which is also his ADP. Yet, I can’t help but feel like I’d rather have him than Joe Burrow, Dak Prescott, and Jordan Love, all of whom are ahead of Daniels in my rankings and ADP.
Those three guys are not runners. They’re better passers than Daniels — by a lot — but this game isn’t predicated on who’s the best quarterback. It’s who will score the most fantasy points.
Per-game fantasy football ranks of QBs with 125+ carries in a season in NFL history (min. 8 games):
1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 3, 3, 4, 4, 5, 5, 6, 7, 8, 12, 17 (2020 Cam)
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) April 30, 2024
Daniels ran the ball 135 times for 1,134 yards and 10 touchdowns last year in college, and 125 carries amounts to 7.35 per game. I’m quite confident he will average around eight or nine carries per game. The only player to not finish as a QB1 who met this criteria was a completely finished Cam Newton in 2020.
At worst, Daniels should provide par value relative to where he’s being drafted. At best, he could finish top five at the position. Daniels may not be a true sleeper in the purest sense of the term, but he’s very likely undervalued.
Kirk Cousins, Atlanta Falcons (ADP: QB18)
As for a sleeper in the purest sense of the term, Kirk Cousins fits the bill. Cousins has been as reliable as it gets at the QB position for the better part of the last decade. For some reason, we’re getting a significant discount based on the fact that he tore his Achilles last season.
Prior to going down, Cousins was at 19.3 fantasy points per game. Sure, he’s on a new team, but he has what we believe to be competent head coaches and comparable, if not better offensive weapons.
Outside of 2016, we’ve never seen Cousins be bad in fantasy. Excluding that season, he’s averaged between 17.9 and 20.0 ppg every year he’s been a starter.
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We know Cousins isn’t giving us a league-winning season. His lack of mobility prohibits him from having that sort of upside. But if you completely punt the quarterback position, you can get a guy who consistently finishes as a back-end QB1 at a price below guys who don’t have that sort of pedigree yet also lack that high-end upside.
I have Cousins ranked as my QB12 because that’s about what he’s been every year of his career. If your league-mates want to take guys like Trevor Lawrence, Caleb Williams, and Justin Herbert ahead of Cousins, let them. Sit back, throw some more darts at wide receivers and running backs, and then nab a rock-solid Cousins in the double-digit rounds.