Fantasy Football Projections: Which players could finish in the top 10 at each position?

While never a perfect science, creating fantasy football projections is one of the greatest teachers during the offseason. It helps to show which players could find value and which narratives are likely to fizzle out early on. After diving into all 32 NFL teams, here are the current top 10 players at each position for the upcoming fantasy football season.

Are fantasy football projections worth the time and effort?

It all depends on what you are expecting to get out of it. For those who have never attempted to create fantasy football projections, I would encourage it. Not only to see if you are right but to challenge your own ideas and thoughts you have developed during the offseason. You might love a player, but if the volume and opportunities aren’t there, we need to reevaluate. 

It challenges you to be flexible and take in as much data as possible from recent trends, depth charts, schedules, coaching changes, play-calling tendencies, efficiency, injuries, and even news coming out of the preseason.

Accuracy is great. In the end, we are trying to be as accurate as possible. But don’t make that the be-all-end-all goal. Use projections in fantasy football to challenge your own preconceived narratives while also finding potential sleepers that have direct paths to opportunities. 

Top 10 Fantasy Football Projections | Quarterbacks

1. Kyler Murray, ARI | Projected points: 386.5 (Passing yards: 4,453, TDs: 31, INTs: 12, Rushing yards: 784, Rush TDs: 9)
2. Patrick Mahomes, KC | Projected points: 382.3 (Passing yards: 5,098, TDs: 41, INTs: 9, Rushing yards: 324, Rush TDs: 3)
3. Josh Allen, BUF | Projected Points: 374.6 (Passing yards: 4,640, TDs: 34, INTs: 12, Rushing Yards: 530, Rush TDs: 8)
4. Dak Prescott, DAL | Projected points: 348.2 (Passing yards: 4,925, TDs: 34, INTs: 12, Rushing yards: 333, Rush TDs: 5)
5. Lamar Jackson, BAL | Projected points: 337.0 (Passing yards: 3,419, TDs: 25, INTs: 9, Rushing yards: 1,003, Rush TDs: 6)
6. Aaron Rodgers, GB | Projected points: 335.5 (Passing yards: 4,624, TDs: 37, INTs: 6, Rushing yards: 146, Rush TDs: 2)
7. Justin Herbert, LAC | Projected points: 322.0 (Passing yards: 4,423, TDs: 33, INTs: 10, Rushing yards: 291, Rush TDs: 4)
8. Russell Wilson, SEA | Projected points: 316.8 (Passing yards: 4,542, TDs: 32, INTs: 10, Rushing yards: 352, Rush TDs: 2)
9. Jalen Hurts, PHI | Projected points: 316.6 (Passing yards: 4,237, TDs: 24, INTs: 12, Rushing yards: 691, Rush TDs: 5)
10. Ryan Tannehill, TEN | Projected points: 309.2 (Passing yards: 4,244, TDs: 31, INTs: 10, Rushing yards: 254, Rush TDs: 5)

You read that correctly — Mahomes will not finish as the QB1 in 2021. In terms of floor and consistency, he will have the edge, but the upside of Murray is incredible. You might look at these projections and find them bullish on Murray. And while they might be, it’s not unrealistic. 

Before his injury, Murray was averaging 32.2 ppg and on pace for 4,500 passing yards, 1,052 rushing yards, and 49 total TDs (32 passing, 17 rushing). He was the QB1 until Allen snatched it away in Week 17. All they did in the offseason was upgrade the OL and add A.J. Green and Rondale Moore. Murray, Mahomes, and Allen all have QB1 upside.

Bull report on Jalen Hurts

Jalen Hurts was the first quarterback since 1950 to throw for over 800 yards and rush for over 200 yards in his first three starts. During this time, he was the QB3 in leagues with 4-point passing touchdowns (25.9 ppg). If we include his partial games in Week 13 and Week 17, he still ends up as the QB9. In fantasy, rushing quarterbacks are essential to success, and Hurts could very well be one of the best. Since 2018, 22 of the top 36 QBs rushed for over 200 yards, with 17 of the top 24 in the last two years hitting this mark.

DeVonta Smith is the truth, and Jalen Reagor has his swagger back. The accuracy concerns are overblown, and the combination of head coach Nick Sirianni and offensive coordinator Shane Steichen should have this offense inside the top 10 in pace. If anything, Hurts’ rushing projection might end up being low. He is the breakout QB for 2021 (not including Justin Fields or Trey Lance).

Just missing out on the top 10 QBs in my fantasy football projections were Matthew Stafford and Tom Brady.

Top 10 Fantasy Football Projections | Running Backs

1. Christian McCaffrey, CAR | Projected points: 306.3 (Rushing Yards: 1,032, TDs: 10, Receptions: 90, Receiving yards: 739, TDs: 4)
2. Dalvin Cook, MIN | Projected points: 279.2 (Rushing Yards: 1,173, TDs: 12, Receptions: 55, Receiving yards: 506, TDs: 2)
3. Derrick Henry, TEN | Projected points: 272.5 (Rushing Yards: 1,654, TDs: 11, Receptions: 928, Receiving yards: 211, TDs: 1)
4. Alvin Kamara, NO | Projected points: 264.1 (Rushing Yards: 1,846, TDs: 8, Receptions: 76, Receiving yards: 756, TDs: 3)
5. Ezekiel Elliott, DAL | Projected points: 244.0 (Rushing Yards: 1,008, TDs: 8, Receptions: 56, Receiving yards: 491, TDs: 3)
6. Jonathan Taylor, IND | Projected points: 240.2 (Rushing Yards: 1,106, TDs: 11, Receptions: 42, Receiving yards: 307, TDs: 2)
7. Aaron Jones, GB | Projected points: 237.8 (Rushing Yards: 978, TDs: 9, Receptions: 51, Receiving yards: 425, TDs: 3)
8. Austin Ekeler, LAC | Projected points: 234.6 (Rushing Yards: 810, TDs: 5, Receptions: 73, Receiving yards: 632, TDs: 4)
9. Nick Chubb, CLE | Projected points: 233.0 (Rushing Yards: 1,248, TDs: 11, Receptions: 27, Receiving yards: 238, TDs: 1)
10. Antonio Gibson, WFT | Projected points: 232.5 (Rushing Yards: 1,056, TDs: 8, Receptions: 53, Receiving yards: 404, TDs: 2)

If you are lucky enough to have the 1.01, don’t get too cute. McCaffrey is the only pick to make in non-superflex leagues. Since 2018, McCaffrey has averaged 27.1 PPR points per game (35 active games) while recording 20+ points 28 times (80%). While he and Cook share an RB tier, that does not mean they are equal in output.

I cannot get enough of Ekeler and Gibson in my drafts, depending on what side of the draft I am on. I have both players projected higher than their current ADPs, and each should be a significant factor in the passing game. In PPR formats, their value is that much higher for fantasy football.

Just missing out on the top 10 RBs in my fantasy football projections were Saquon Barkley and Najee Harris.

Top 10 Projections | Wide Receiver

1. Davante Adams, GB | Projected points: 285.6 (Targets: 162, Receptions: 116, Yards: 1,435, TDs: 14)
2. Tyreek Hill, KC | Projected points: 278.2 (Targets: 144, Receptions: 94, Yards: 1,379, TDs: 13)
3. Calvin Ridley, ATL | Projected points: 259.3 (Targets: 152, Receptions: 102, Yards: 1,525, TDs: 9)
4. Stefon Diggs, BUF | Projected points: 256.7 (Targets: 160, Receptions: 109, Yards: 1,484, TDs: 9)
5. DeAndre Hopkins, ARI | Projected points: 251.4 (Targets: 164, Receptions: 116, Yards: 1,452, TDs: 8)
6. DK Metcalf, SEA | Projected points: 235.4 (Targets: 136, Receptions: 86, Yards: 1,326, TDs: 10)
7. Justin Jefferson, MIN | Projected points: 232.2 (Targets: 132, Receptions: 90, Yards: 1,394, TDs: 8)
8. A.J. Brown, TEN | Projected points: 222.5 (Targets: 128, Receptions: 83, Yards: 1,210, TDs: 10)
9. Terry McLaurin, WFT | Projected points: 220.6 (Targets: 139, Receptions: 90, Yards: 1,274, TDs: 8)
10. Keenan Allen, LAC | Projected points: 220.2 (Targets: 155, Receptions: 106, Yards: 1,135, TDs: 9)

There is little, if anything, that separates Adams and Hill. They are in a tier amongst themselves for fantasy WRs. Adams is projected to lead Hill again in targets and receptions, but if Hill closes the gap, the yards per reception average on his résumé could see him take the crown. 

2021 will be the year of McLaurin. After a WR21 finish last season, he is primed for an explosive season on a sneaky loaded Washington team. Despite playing with a mixture of Dwayne Haskins, Alex Smith, Kyle Allen, and Taylor Heinicke the last two years, McLaurin has managed to produce 2,037 yards and 11 touchdowns. He should be in the 140-target range this season, and with his separation and route-running skills, McLaurin will become a household name.

Just missing out on the top 10 WRs in my fantasy football projections were Allen Robinson and Robert Woods.

Top 10 Projections | Tight Ends

1. Travis Kelce, KC | Projected points: 255.6 (Targets: 148, Receptions: 107, Yards: 1,364, TDs: 11)
2. Darren Waller, LVR | Projected points: 220.2 (Targets: 133, Receptions: 102, Yards: 1,151, TDs: 9)
3. George Kittle, SF | Projected points: 208.2 (Targets: 128, Receptions: 91, Yards: 1,208, TDs: 7)
4. Mark Andrews, BAL | Projected points: 166.1 (Targets: 112, Receptions: 74, Yards: 872, TDs: 7)
5. Kyle Pitts, ATL | Projected points: 151.5 (Targets: 112, Receptions: 76, Yards: 835, TDs: 5)
6. T.J. Hockenson, DET | Projected points: 150.0 (Targets: 114, Receptions: 78, Yards: 809, TDs: 5)
7. Tyler Higbee, LAR | Projected points: 141.4 (Targets: 84, Receptions: 64, Yards: 735, TDs: 6)
8. Logan Thomas, WFT | Projected points: 135.9 (Targets: 88, Receptions: 61, Yards: 636, TDs: 7)
9. Dallas Goedert, PHI | Projected points: 133.2 (Targets: 96, Receptions: 69, Yards: 747, TDs: 4)
10. Robert Tonyan, GB | Projected points: 128.3 (Targets: 67, Receptions: 50, Yards: 551, TDs: 8)

It’s Kelce’s world, and we are just living it. Kelce has been the overall TE1 for five straight seasons and never lower than TE8 (2014). Additionally, he’s finished 78% of his games as a TE1, including 28 of 31 active games since 2019.  

Can you wait on TE and get one who still finishes inside the top 10 in fantasy football projections? Yes. But should you? The points gap from Kelce to the TE5 (Pitts) is 104.1 points (6.1 per game) and nearly double the scoring of Tonyan at TE10.

Last season, it was 120 points from Kelce to Andrews at TE5 and 140 points to Jonnu Smith at TE10. While you might not have a chance to draft a game-changer like Kelce, ideally, you want to walk away with a top-six pick in drafts. Maybe this will be the year fantasy managers stop lying to themselves into believing TE is deep enough to wait. 

Tommy Garrett is a writer for Pro Football Network covering the NFL and fantasy football and a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association (FSWA). You can read more of his work here and follow him at @TommygarrettPFN on Twitter.