The way to win your league is by predicting the future. Let’s take a look at a couple of fantasy football predictions I have for the 2021 NFL season.
Fantasy football predictions for 2021
We are just about to enter the heart of fantasy football draft season. You don’t need me to tell you that Christian McCaffrey, Dalvin Cook, and Alvin Kamara should be three of the first players off the board. Let’s get a little bolder with some takes that could really put your team over the top.
Prediction #1: Javonte Williams is a league winner down the stretch
Fantasy managers are often overly optimistic about fantasy football rookies. Clyde Edwards-Helaire was a first-round pick in 2020. J.K. Dobbins was drafted high almost universally but didn’t do anything until the second half of the season.
With that being said, many of the top 2020 rookies smashed down the stretch. Jonathan Taylor, D’Andre Swift, and Dobbins were all excellent once they finally got their opportunity. I see a similar trajectory for Denver Broncos’ second-round pick, Javonte Williams, which is why a Williams late-season ascent is one of my favorite fantasy football predictions.
When will Williams break out?
The Broncos traded up to select Williams as the heir apparent to Melvin Gordon, who will likely be on another team in 2022. Williams is undoubtedly the future RB1 for the Broncos. The only question for 2021 fantasy football drafts is how to handle the fact that he won’t be the guy right away — do you have the roster to stay patient?
With Williams often available as late as the sixth or sometimes even seventh round, the opportunity cost is low — this is especially true if you’re in a league with shallow starting roster positions (2 WR, 2 RB, 1 Flex). By the sixth round, you very well may be drafting bench running backs and wide receivers.
Williams should open the season with at least low-RB3 value, but I expect him to emerge into a true every-week fantasy starter by November.
Prediction #2: David Montgomery, last year’s RB6, finishes outside the top 24 in PPR ppg
Anyone following me for the past two years knows I’m not a fan of David Montgomery as a talent. Part of my 2021 draft strategy is to avoid Montgomery. However, I cannot deny that Montgomery was a league winner in 2020 fantasy leagues. From Weeks 12-16 last season, Montgomery was the overall RB1, averaging 25.2 PPR ppg. So, why am I down on him?
This article contains fantasy football predictions — that is — we are trying to predict the future, not merely assume a repeat of the past. Montgomery has played 31 career regular-season games. Over the first 25 of them, he averaged 11.4 ppg. Over the last 6, he averaged 25.7 ppg. I refuse to let 6 games outweigh the other 25.
Montgomery’s circumstances are quite different this season
If one of your top 2020 fantasy football predictions was that Montgomery would be an RB1, you got lucky. That sounds harsh, but sometimes the truth hurts. A perfect confluence of factors led to Montgomery’s scorching finish to 2020.
Tarik Cohen was supposed to be the primary passing-down back, but he tore his ACL last September. Then, the Bears’ schedule opened up in the second half of the season, facing cupcake defense after cupcake defense. Montgomery instantly went from barely startable to a guy that rained fantasy points.
In 2021, Cohen will be back at some point and will have a role. But, more concerning for Montgomery is the addition of Damien Williams. The former Chief is not going to be purely a backup, and he’s not just a niche player. Williams is capable of being a three-down back. That’s bad news for Montgomery, as Williams could easily open the season as the passing-down back while also eating into Montgomery’s early-down work. That is exactly what I think will happen.
Prediction #2 addendum: Damien Williams closes out the season as the preferred Bears running back
If David Montgomery suddenly went from this replacement-level talent to this amazing running back over the second half of 2020, then I will double down on being wrong. I just don’t think that’s the case.
One of my favorite fantasy football predictions is that Williams will play his way into a larger role with the upside to completely take this job from Montgomery if things break right. That could mean anything from a Montgomery injury to just inferior play. Fantasy managers have quickly forgotten that Montgomery’s play over the first 25 games of his career would absolutely be at risk of getting him benched or phased out.
You can find Williams at the cellar of 2021 fantasy football cheat sheets and buried in draft guides. His ADP is clearly rising in mock drafts, but you can still get Williams in the double-digit rounds.
Jason Katz is a Fantasy Analyst at Pro Football Network. You can follow him on Twitter @jasonkatz13 and find more of his work here.