Now that preseason football is officially underway, PPR fantasy football mocks drafts are kicking off at a record pace as managers return to the game in preparation for their upcoming drafts. With PPR scoring the focus and the default for many leagues, we breakdown a PPR fantasy football mock draft to analyze how the first four rounds could play out and where the value could be.
How does a draft strategy change when you go from 0.5 to PPR?
There is a growing subset of drafters who preach Zero RB. As much as I have pushed against it, it’s starting to grow on me a touch — at least the philosophy behind it. You target all the elite pass catchers and keep yourself out of the positional rushes when the rest of your league-mates fight and reach on RBs just to take an RB.
It makes more sense when you move from either standard or 0.5 PPR to a full PPR format. It could be a very viable strategy if executed properly. Targets vastly outscore carries. This should not come as a massive shock to anyone. If you look at the top 60 running backs of 2020, they averaged 0.67 fantasy points per rush.
In contrast, each time they saw a target, they averaged 1.53 fantasy points. The number only gets higher when you move to receivers with deeper targets. The top 60 receivers in PPR scoring averaged 1.88 fantasy points per target and a whopping 2.86 points per reception. Those are not insignificant numbers.
I am not trying to advocate one strategy over another. There is an infinite number of ways to play and win in fantasy. But what I am pointing out is that a subtle tweak to scoring causes a massive ripple effect in how you should value players. Pre-draft rankings should be altered, with scoring and rules discussed in the league before the draft.
2021 Redraft PPR Fantasy Football Mock Draft | Round 1
For reference, this mock was run with a 1QB/2RB/3WR/TE/Flex roster format with a 10-team league and PPR scoring settings.
1) Christian McCaffrey (RB1 – Carolina Panthers)
There should be no debate on who is the 1.01 in non-superflex fantasy drafts. Not only did McCaffrey become the third player ever to eclipse 1,000 rushing and receiving yards in a single season, but he has averaged 29.5 PPR ppg over the last two years.
Of his 19 games (2019-2020), McCaffrey has finished as an RB1 17 times, with 11 inside the top four. This pick is as easy as it gets, in my opinion. He is arguably the top receiving back in football and should near 100 targets in 2021.
2) Dalvin Cook (RB2 – Minnesota Vikings)
Dalvin Cook is the only player in the same tier as McCaffrey, making this pick just as easy as the first. Since 2019, Cook has recorded 3,572 total yards and 30 touchdowns, finishing as the RB6 and RB2, respectively, in PPR formats. Cook has played in 28 of 32 possible games over the past two seasons while scoring the most fantasy points among RBs (630.2). Stop with the “injury-prone” talk.
3) Alvin Kamara (RB3 – New Orleans Saints)
Here is where we see our first big swing in PPR fantasy football mock drafts as Alvin Kamara vaults into the 1.03 spot. With the recent news of Michael Thomas potentially missing close to half the season, the Saints’ offense begins and ends with Kamara.
Since coming into the league, Kamara has averaged 21.8 ppg, finishing 83% of his games as an RB2 or better (65% RB1). Better yet, he has received 270 opportunities per season. Here is the big thing. Until Thomas is back, who is going to catch the ball? Kamara is an elite pass catcher, playmaker, and the model of consistency with his season reception totals of 81, 81, 81, and 83.
4) Derrick Henry (RB4 – Tennessee Titans)
Does he get targets? No. But does Derrick Henry really care? Nope, not really. The guy is just built different, winning the rushing title in back-to-back seasons. Even in PPR scoring, Henry has averaged 20.2 ppg as the RB5 and RB3 in fantasy.
5) Davante Adams (WR1 – Green Bay Packers)
With Aaron Rodgers back in Green Bay for 2021, Davante Adams returns to WR1. Since 2018 — when Adams has been by most accounts the best receiver in the NFL — he has averaged 148 targets, 103 receptions for 1,252.3 yards, and 12 TDs per year. That is 7.5 receptions, 92 yards, and 0.88 TDs for 22.1 ppg on a per-game basis. He has no weaknesses, and even in a matchup against the best CBs in the NFL, Adams can’t be stopped.
6) Ezekiel Elliott (RB5 – Dallas Cowboys)
I could easily make a case where Ezekiel Elliott should go ahead of Henry in PPR formats. Even on an offense loaded with pass-catching talent, Elliott is going to feast in 2021. Is there a reason why people believe he has fallen off?
All he has done is finish as the RB2, RB12, RB5, RB3, and RB9, respectively, averaging 1,276 rushing yards, 391 receiving yards, and 11.2 total touchdowns per season. In 2020, Elliott was the RB3 (22.3 ppg) in the five games with Dak Prescott in the lineups. Trust me; he is good at football.
7) Tyreek Hill (WR2 – Kansas City Chiefs)
If you want to shoot for upside, Tyreek Hill has more than any other receiver in the NFL and fantasy, including Adams. Since 2017, Hill has been the WR4, WR1, WR30 (12 games), and WR2 while averaging 76.8 receptions, 1,199.5 yards, and 10.3 TDs per season. Now that he gets an additional game with Patrick Mahomes, Hill could crest 1,500 yards if things click early.
8) Travis Kelce (TE1 – Kansas City Chiefs)
Typically, you would never see a TE in the first round of fantasy drafts. However, Travis Kelce is the exception. Once the top-tier RBs and Adams are gone, Kelce and Hill should go back-to-back in PPR drafts, and it’s the dealer’s choice as to the order.
Kelce has been the overall TE1 for five straight seasons and never lower than TE8 (2014). Additionally, he’s finished 78% of his games as a TE1, including 28 of 31 active games since 2019. He has averaged 94.6 receptions on 134 targets for 1,228.8 yards and 7.6 touchdowns per season. Those are WR1 numbers.
9) Aaron Jones (RB6 – Green Bay Packers)
With Rodgers back in the fold, I feel comfortable again trusting Aaron Jones to return to what we have seen in previous years. Over the last two seasons, Jones has finished as the RB2 and RB5 while averaging 19.2 ppg (30 games). He finished as an RB1 in 43% of his games and as an RB2 or better in 76% of contests played.
10) Stefon Diggs (WR3 – Buffalo Bills)
Having just watched his QB bring home the entire bank, Stefon Diggs is locked in for several years with Josh Allen. Likewise, we get to reap the benefits for fantasy football. Playing on 89% of the snaps, Diggs led the NFL in targets (166), receptions (127), yards (1,535), and tied for 12th in touchdowns (8). Averaging 20.5 ppg and 1.98 fantasy points per target, he was the WR3 overall.