On Tuesday, April 21, several Detroit Lions players were handed suspensions for gambling during the 2022 season. Among those suspended was second-year WR Jameson Williams. Let’s examine the fantasy football impact of Williams missing the first six games of the 2023 season.
Lions WR Jameson Williams Suspended 6 Games
In light of Calvin Ridley’s suspension for the entire 2022 campaign, one would think players would be more cognizant of the NFL’s Gambling Policy. Unfortunately, that was not the case for a group of Lions players.
Fellow (now former) Lions WR Quintez Cephus was suspended for the entire season, along with safety C.J. Moore. Those two were immediately cut by the Lions.
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Williams’ suspension was limited to six games because, unlike Cephus and Moore, he did not bet on actual NFL games. Instead, Williams was guilty of placing bets on other sports while at an NFL facility, which is a violation of the policy.
This marks yet another impediment in Williams’ path to living up to being a first-round wide receiver.
Fantasy Football Fallout of Jameson Williams’ Suspension
As a rookie, Williams’ NFL debut was delayed by three months as he recovered from a torn ACL. That resulted in him playing just six games last season.
The Lions eased him back into action. He never crested a 25% snap share, and he saw a total of nine targets in his six games played.
Heading into the 2023 season, I was already quite skeptical of Williams as a fantasy asset. He was trending toward being a fifth- or sixth-round pick, which seemed quite ambitious given his lack of rookie production.
There’s no denying Williams’ talent at Alabama. At the same time, there’s no denying the history of first-round rookie wide receivers who fail to reach 250 receiving yards.
On April 1, Matthew Berry’s Fantasy Life’s Ian Hartitz tweeted out a list of rookie first-round wide receivers who failed to hit the 250-yard threshold. There are 16 names on the list. Not a single one ever became a star, and only Santana Moss and Mike Williams were consistently fantasy-relevant.
Given Jameson Williams’ draft capital and the hype surrounding him, there’s no denying expectations for his ability are lofty. It’s fair to say those who took him in the first round of dynasty rookie drafts in 2022 did so expecting him to have a far better career than either Moss or Mike Williams.
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The deck was already stacked against Jameson Williams having a productive career. Now, things become even more challenging.
The good news is Williams will still get to participate in training camp and play in the preseason — something he was unable to do last year due to his injury. But even so, this will mark a second consecutive season where Williams will miss a chunk of the start of the season.
The Lions were relying on Williams to be their WR2 opposite Amon-Ra St. Brown. His elite speed and downfield ability were to provide the ideal complement to St. Brown’s low average depth of target prowess.
Now, the Lions will open the season perilously thin at wide receiver. Their current WR2 is 33-year-old Marvin Jones. With DJ Chark in Carolina, their WR3 is either Josh Reynolds or Kalif Raymond. They are in quite a bind for the first six games of the season.
No help is coming via free agency. So, unless the Lions are going to make a surprise trade, if they want to upgrade at wide receiver, they may need to consider selecting one in next week’s draft.
Jameson Williams Is Off My Board in 2023 Fantasy Drafts
I was already all-in on St. Brown this season. The only thing that changes is without the threat of Williams for the first six games, St. Brown will likely be a bit more expensive in fantasy drafts. That’s very unfortunate, as Williams’ presence wasn’t going to play a factor in my evaluation of St. Brown at all. So, St. Brown just gets more expensive.
As for Williams, I was never going to even remotely consider drafting him in the fifth or sixth round. Despite being “out” on Williams, every player has a price (well, except 2022 Kenny Golladay).
For example, if Williams fell to the 15th round, I’d take the shot. At that price, there’s no risk.
So, while I still wouldn’t recommend targeting Williams in 2023 fantasy drafts, if his ADP falls enough, he’ll be worth a shot.
With that said, injuries are inevitable in the NFL. All of our fantasy teams will suffer injuries at one point or another. As a result, I’m not really in the business of drafting players I know for a fact will not be playing football.
Williams is guaranteed to miss six games. If you draft him, you know he’s going to eat a valuable bench spot for six weeks. The first couple weeks of the season are when managers churn roster spots the most. It’s when waiver pickups are most valuable. You need spots to take shots on players.
Whoever drafts Williams has to hang onto him until he returns. That’s a guaranteed six weeks of a roster spot that isn’t going to contribute any fantasy points to your starting lineup and can’t be used to shuffle through free agents with the hope of finding one that hits.
Someone will inevitably draft Williams. I’m just perfectly fine letting someone else do it.
Williams’ Fantasy Production Upon His Return Is Suspect
Last season, we knew DeAndre Hopkins was going to miss six games. We also were reasonably confident he would be a productive fantasy asset upon his return because, well, he’s DeAndre Hopkins.
Williams’ fantasy value is purely speculative. We’ve seen absolutely nothing indicating he will be a startable fantasy asset — or even a viable bench player. It’s all based on his prospect profile and the belief that last season’s usage was entirely due to his injury.
I wasn’t keen on drafting Hopkins last year. I wasn’t even keen on drafting Chris Godwin after returning from his late-season torn ACL. It’s just easier not to have to deal with players certain to miss games to start the season. But at least with those two guys, you knew what you were getting when they returned.
Williams is an unknown. It’s one thing to sit on a guy for six weeks, knowing you should be getting WR2 production upon his return. It’s another thing to sit on a guy for six weeks and have no idea if you will ever get any production.
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Are you going to throw Williams in your lineup in Week 7? Probably not. So we’re already at Week 8 before you even consider starting him. And if he gets off to a slow start again, then what?
Of course, I would be foolish to ignore the upside. If Williams is as good as his draft capital suggests, then there’s the possibility he could be a league-winning player down the stretch. After all, that is what fantasy managers are chasing.
I happen to believe that to be a low-probability outcome. Therefore, I will likely be much lower than the consensus on Williams in my 2023 redraft rankings.
Jameson Williams’ Dynasty Value
For dynasty managers, even before this news, I would have advised trying to sell him. At just 22 years old, a six-game suspension should have little to no impact on Williams’ dynasty value.
If someone out there is a believer in Williams, losing six games in his age-22 season is not going to change that.
Williams sits at WR22 in our latest dynasty rankings. There are several wide receivers below him that I’d be willing to sell him for. If you can get one of those guys plus another player or a pick, that is absolutely a deal I would be willing to make.