Fantasy football draft season is upon us. This means fantasy managers need to prepare by identifying potential players to avoid in their fantasy drafts that could underperform based on their current ADP.
Here is a list of risky players on bust alert entering the 2024 NFL season.
Which Players Could Be Fantasy Football Busts in 2024?
For those of you who are a bit unfamiliar with the term “bust” in the realm of fantasy football, it can simply be described as a player who failed to meet expectations in a given season.
For example, Jonathan Taylor finished as RB33 overall in full-PPR formats, while Devin Singletary finished as the RB32 in 2023. So, why was Taylor considered a bust last year while Singletary wasn’t?
Much of this has to do with the expectations fantasy managers had for Taylor heading into last year, as he was selected as a top-10 running back in many fantasy drafts.
Taylor’s RB33 finish means his production came in far lower than expected, making him a bust. Singletary, on the other hand, had fairly low expectations heading into the season, which makes his RB32 finish far more in line with his projections.
RB James Conner, Arizona Cardinals
The Arizona Cardinals’ decision to select rookie running back Trey Benson in the third round of the 2024 NFL Draft should be a concern for a veteran running back in the final year of his contract.
This suggestion isn’t meant to be an indictment against Conner, who has been very productive over his three years with the Cardinals.
Conner’s Fantasy Production With the Cardinals
- 2023: 1,040 rushing yards, 27 receptions, 165 receiving yards, 9 total TDs (RB18)
- 2022: 782 rushing yards, 46 receptions, 300 receiving yards, 8 total TDs (RB19)
- 2021: 752 rushing yards, 37 receptions, 375 receiving yards, 18 total TDs (RB5)
Oddly enough, Conner logged his most efficient year as a ball carrier in 2023 at 5.0 yards per carry. These trends of recent production and the reports around Cardinals training camp of Conner being the leading man to start the year are helping the veteran back rise up draft boards.
Yet, I still have my doubts that Conner will finish the year as the definitive feature back in this offense. Benson is an explosive three-down back in his own right, who could easily push for more work as the season progresses — if not take the leading role outright by season’s end.
Conner is a good player who should be a nice starting option early in the year, but don’t be surprised if he becomes a bit of a disappointment in the second half of the season when the fantasy playoffs roll around.
RB Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns
Few running backs have produced the type of exceptional rushing numbers over the last five years than Chubb in a Browns uniform.
Entering the 2023 campaign, Chubb rushed for over 1,000 yards and eight rushing TDs in four straight years. Sure, his contributions in the passing game have always been a bit limited — catching 30+ passes in a season only once in his career — but his exceptional production as a ball carrier made him a top 13 fantasy RB in full-PPR formats for five consecutive campaigns.
Unfortunately, age and injury history are now both working against Chubb heading into his seventh NFL season. A significant amount of data since 2000 suggests the age cliff for running backs — even the great ones — is 28. He will turn 29 later this year.
Chubb is now coming off of the second devastating knee injury of his career and will be rehabbing in hopes of being ready for the 2024 season opener. If you recall, Chubb suffered a gruesome lower-body injury during his collegiate days at Georgia, tearing the PCL and LCL in his left leg.
Chubb’s timetable to return to the lineup is still a bit unclear, as he is still on the PUP list, which makes him a risky draft-day investment.
Will Chubb see a full workload immediately upon returning to the lineup? How much time will he miss? Will his efficiency remain the same after another major injury?
These are all questions we don’t have answers to at this time. He’s worth a flier later in drafts, but his ADP creeps into the sixth round — then I will have zero shares of Chubb in 2024.
RB James Cook, Buffalo Bills
Those fantasy managers who were skeptical that the Buffalo Bills would ever truly feature a running back with Josh Allen around got their answer.
James Cook had a great season last year, posting 1,122 rushing yards with an additional 445 receiving yards on 44 receptions and six total TDs. Those numbers were good for an RB12 fantasy finish in full-PPR formats.
Cook’s rushing and receiving yardage at the RB position both ranked inside the top 10, and he was among the top backs in the league with 5.6 yards per touch, which is impressive considering his above-average volume last season.
Yet, Cook’s usage in the red zone — and particularly inside the 5-yard line — is worth mentioning when trying to determine if he can repeat his fantasy production from a season ago. He actually saw seven fewer carries from inside the 5-yard line than Latavius Murray. Additionally, Allen had 14 carries of his own from this range last year.
This is where I mention the addition of rookie running back Ray Davis this year, a very physical runner with great contact balance and burst.
Will Cook be the leading ball carrier again for the Bills in 2024? Yes, I believe so. Still, Allen’s presence and a potential upgrade at the RB2 spot on the roster could limit Cook’s fantasy upside this season.
RB Kenneth Walker III, Seattle Seahawks
When your carries, rushing yards, and yards per carry all drop from your rookie to sophomore campaign, it can be hard to believe a breakout season is on the horizon in Year 3. Now, combine those downward trends with the presence of a talented backup tailback, and we could have the recipe for a fantasy disaster.
Kenneth Walker III Fantasy Production
- 2023: 905 rushing yards, 29 receptions, 259 yards, and 9 TDs (RB19 overall)
- 2022: 1,050 rushing yards, 27 receptions, 165 yards, and 9 TDs (RB18 overall)
Kenneth Walker III has finished as a top-20 fantasy back in full-PPR formats in both years of his young career, but the fact that he lost 141 total touches to Zach Charbonnet last season should be a bit worrisome to fantasy managers.
There is no denying Walker’s physical talent and flashes of big-play potential built into a three-down frame, but the fact that the Michigan State product failed to significantly outplay Charbonnet in 2023 does bring some concern.
This is especially true with a new coaching staff that didn’t draft either of these players since they could simply choose to utilize the most effective back on a weekly basis.
Unfortunately, Walker feels like he is being drafted closer to his ceiling than his floor. Carrying a No. 45 overall ADP as RB17 off the board makes me want to pass on Walker this year.
WR Stefon Diggs, Houston Texans
On paper, Stefon Diggs going from the Buffalo Bills to the Houston Texans isn’t necessarily a death sentence to his fantasy value.
Diggs was an elite fantasy producer while catching passes from Josh Allen and now joins a promising young quarterback in C.J. Stroud in Houston.
Yet, the target competition Diggs is facing with his new team, combined with him turning 31 years old later this year, should give fantasy managers cause for concern entering 2024.
Nico Collins and Tank Dell are both very capable pass catchers who instantly clicked with Stroud last year. This receiver room will be the most crowded one Diggs has been in throughout his career.
Not to mention, Diggs also had a very quiet finish to last season. From Weeks 10 to 18, he was the WR44, with an average of just five receptions for 44 yards during that span. I’m not going to go as far as to say he is washed, but the signs of potential decline did make an appearance at the end of last year.
Does this mean that I’m projecting Diggs to completely fall off a cliff in 2024? No, I trust Texans’ offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik to scheme up Diggs — who is still a great route runner — as a moveable weapon to help elevate Stroud’s game.
Yet, I’m not sure I can confidently say Diggs will see north of 130 targets this year — which makes him a fade for me entering 2024.
WR Christian Watson, Green Bay Packers
The confusing case of one Christian Watson burned fantasy managers in a big way last season.
Watson drastically underperformed last year with just 28 receptions for 422 yards and five scores over his nine games played in 2023. The context required behind this disappointing campaign was a lingering hamstring injury that never fully allowed him to get on track in his second season.
Yet, when Watson was on the field last year, some of the advanced metrics that spoke so favorably about him regarding his rookie year dropped significantly in 2023.
Yards After Catch per Reception:
- 2023: 3.7
- 2022: 6.8
Average Depth of Target (Positional Ranking):
- 2023: 15.4 (sixth)
- 2022: 13.8 (12th)
Yards per Route Run (Positional Ranking):
- 2023: 1.58 (51st)
- 2022: 2.40 (12th)
Another concerning thing to monitor was the encouraging signs the Packers saw from other young pass catchers in this offense while Watson was in and out of the lineup. Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, and Dontavyion Wicks all had their fair share of big games, which casts even more uncertainty as to whether Watson will ever emerge as Jordan Love’s go-to receiver in this Packers’ offense.
WR Davante Adams, Las Vegas Raiders
Price point is everything regarding whether a player can even be considered a bust if he produces a poor amount of fantasy production in a given season.
Las Vegas Raiders wide receiver Davante Adams’ ADP at No. 19 overall in the second round as WR10 off the board means he will need to produce low-end WR1 numbers to meet the expectations tied to his current stock.
If you simply look at Adams’ résumé of fantasy production over the last eight seasons, it becomes pretty clear why fantasy managers feel comfortable selecting him in the second round.
Davante Adams Fantasy Positional Ranks Since 2016
- 2023: WR10
- 2022: WR3
- 2021: WR2
- 2020: WR1
- 2019: WR23 (WR6 on a points per-game basis)
- 2018: WR3
- 2017: WR14
- 2016: WR10
This type of sustained greatness likely means Adams will be making a trip to Canton, Ohio, somewhere in the very near future.
Yet, Adams’ current draft price would require you to pass on Chris Olave, Mike Evans, and Jaylen Waddle, who I would argue are all in better fantasy situations approaching the 2024 season.
Something that can’t be denied is the elite target share Adams has seen during his days with the Raiders. Last year, Adams saw an absurd 33.1% of the team’s targets (175 total targets), which ranked second amongst wide receivers. Additionally, he managed to catch 100 passes for a fourth straight year, which includes his first two seasons with the Raiders.
Adams’ production of 103 receptions for 1,144 receiving yards and eight touchdowns was still a solid season from an overall production standpoint. But upon a closer look, there may be some cause for concern that Father Time is starting to tap him on the shoulder.
Yards Per Route Run With Positional Rank
2023: 2.03 (No. 30)
2022: 2.59 (No. 8)
Yards After Catch With Positional Rank
2023: 336 (No. 25)
2022: 493 (No. 6)
Are these all signs suggesting that Adams is nearing the end? Absolutely not. Adams is still amongst the best route-runners in the league, and the context of his quarterback situation certainly speaks to some of the drop in target efficiency last year.
However, that elite target share could realistically take a hit with the arrival of a generational TE prospect like Brock Bowers entering the mix this upcoming season.
Adams will turn 32 years old before the end of the 2024 season. Even if the decline in play is minimal, it may be enough to drastically impact his fantasy numbers if the quarterback play continues to subpar and he loses some of his elite volume to Bowers and other Raiders pass catchers.
Adams isn’t cratering down my rankings, but I do have him just outside of my top 20 at the position heading into 2024.
TE David Njoku, Cleveland Browns
Cleveland Browns TE David Njoku was outstanding over the last 12 games of the season last year, finishing as the TE1 in PPR formats with 62 receptions for 720 yards and six scores on 101 targets. It goes without saying, but that is outstanding production for the TE position.
Njoku’s fantasy-friendly role as a dynamic YAC threat with an abundance of manufactured touches in the screen game — finishing second at the TE position with 16 receptions in 2023 — helped accentuate what he does at a very high level.
Yet, the return of Deshaun Watson under center, the addition of Jerry Jeudy at receiver, and the looming presence of Nick Chubb getting back into the fold do create some questions about whether or not Njoku’s role in 2024 will mirror what we saw from him over the final three months of his breakout season.
The upside is undeniable with Njoku from what we saw last year. He has the talent to prove me completely wrong with this suggestion, but he has finished outside of the top 20 at his position in two of the last four years.
Perhaps this is more of a bet against Watson than it is against Njoku, but his ADP as a top-10 TE comes with more risk than we may like to admit.
QB Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
Dak Prescott’s 4,516 passing yards and 36 touchdown passes to go with 242 rushing yards and another two scores — which led to a QB3 overall finish — may have felt like a surprise considering the lack of elite options outside of CeeDee Lamb. However, the Cowboys quarterback’s exceptional play was the main reason behind Dallas leading the league in scoring in 2023.
Prescott orchestrated an offense that generated a league-leading 71 trips to the red zone last year, proving he can still be an elite fantasy QB without an elite collection of playmakers at his disposal.
Sure, Jake Ferguson had a really nice year, and Brandin Cooks proved he still has something left in the tank, but I would argue this group of pass catchers outside of Lamb probably falls in the middle of the pack talent-wise across the NFL.
That fact, coupled with the loss of multiple offensive linemen and Tony Pollard’s departure from the backfield, makes me a bit skeptical of an encore performance in 2024.
Tyler Biadasz was a solid interior offensive lineman, and Tyron Smith was, at times, in the conversation for the league’s best offensive tackle. These losses could create protection issues and drop the efficiency of the Cowboys’ running game.
In theory, this could make Dallas a bit more reliant on Prescott, which could boost his passing-production ceiling.
But the loss of talent up front, coupled with a lack of playmakers outside of Lamb, has me a bit lower on Prescott entering 2024 than current consensus rankings.
QB C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans
Allow me to start by saying I loved what I saw from Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud in his rookie year. Numbers don’t tell the entire story of his success last year, but they do paint a pretty nice picture of how effective he was from the moment he stepped onto an NFL field.
Stroud’s 4,108 passing yards and 23 touchdowns with just five interceptions were outstanding when you consider the situation he was stepping into with Nico Collins, Tank Dell, Robert Woods, and Dalton Schultz as his top options.
Not to mention, the addition of Stefon Diggs to the WR room certainly lends itself to a plausible jump in fantasy production from Stroud’s QB11 finish last year to a top-10 option in 2024.
Yet, Stroud is currently being drafted as QB5 overall in fantasy drafts. As encouraging as his rookie season was and as noteworthy as the team’s offseason additions are, Stroud still has only one year of production under his belt.
Additionally, he doesn’t possess the type of elite dual-threat capabilities we see from other top fantasy quarterbacks, which makes Stroud’s fantasy production strictly tied to his passing.
The fantasy ceiling is certainly there for the second-year QB, but I’m just feeling like these statistical expectations may be a bit too high. That makes Stroud a potential bust candidate in relation to his aggressive ranking at this time.